View Full Version : The Last Man Standing
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 10:45
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing ( Part 1 of 12 )
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The other day, a dear friend treated me to a nice slice of cake at Starbucks. While enjoying it, I had a sudden revelation. That to be successful in property investing is just like baking a cake.
You see, the ingredients you put into the cake determines how tasty the cake will be. However, of what use is taste without form? Will a delicious cake be memorable if it looks like a piece of shhhh....err.....or should I say, looks ugly?
Hence the baker is important as well. Next is the oven you used in making the cake. Imagine you used a lousy oven with the wrong temperature, will the cake turn out well? Most certainly not.
You see, out of all these factors, the real determinant is the baker. If you have a resourceful and skillful baker, the cake will still turn out acceptable despite all the shortcomings you throw at her.
However, if the baker is a lame idiotic guniang, no amount of preconceived factors will create a masterpiece.
In property investing, the same logic applies in the following order with incremental importance:
1) Ingredients = the property itself! the developer, the location, the architect, the materials and so on, all the micro factors.
2) Oven = the external environment that the investment existed within, all the macro factors.
3) The baker is non other than the government or the policy makers.
4) The last one which is the most important of all is of course yourself, the taster or the investor.
You know, how you eat the cake will finally determine your final fate in investment : eat until become fat fat or lau sai untill become skinny skinny.
Be wise, and I shall show u how.
( To be continued)
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 10:47
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing
(Part 2 of 12)
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Since 2008, our world has changed. It is no longer the same old world.
They like to tell you, tax and Inflation is as certain as death. But that was in the old world, there is something else coming in this new world 2008 onwards.
The ongoing currency war, though not as certain as inflation; has far more destructive power to your investment assets than inflation will ever do.
When we factor in inflation into time value of money, we know that the asset will be devalued over time in real terms. This is due to the prices of goods relative to the value of the wealth you held over time.
Traditionally, economists tell you this is in the region of 1% to 2% per annum.
Well, then there is an easy workaround this by holding huge deposits in banks at around 3% per annum. Or simply, you hedge inflation by holding fixed deposits or buying assets. So that as the prices of goods inflate, your assets will inflate to counter it as well.
Well, that was workable...only it was workable in the past, not now. A new factor more formiable than inflation is currency devaluation.
Currency exchange is the basis a country uses to trade with another country. Importation and exportation depended on the currency of a nation and needless to say, goods and wealth depended on it.
In the past, currency exchange did not flactuate like it does now. Well, at least not till after the late 90s with the introduction of new chip technology.
After the late 90s, it became a new ball game altogether. As more and more central banks get involved in money printing and interest rate policy, wide currency swings become a norm especially so after 2008.
In the name of free markets, this kind of currency or interest rate policy is apparently good.....Or, is it ?
Only problem here is: it will become a nightmare if a full currency war breaks out with central banks using such policies as "weapons" in the currency war. I mean we all know what a "kancheong spider" is capable of doing in the army :(
We are seeing more and more of currency devaluation of an economy around us recently, don't we ? And what you tasted was just an appetiser.
We see that, as an example, after holding a foreign asset for like 5 years and you sold it in the foreign currency; return the money from overseas; exchanged it back into Singapore dollars, and magically your wealth position ended worse than you started ! What the XXXX just happened ? ? You ended up poorer than when you started, and you are now 5 years older!
That is more evil than inflation. It is obsence and worse than pornography.
( to be continued )
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 11:41
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing ( Part 3 of 12 )
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"Attack on Singapore a matter of when, not if ", says Shanmugam.
Indeed, a very down to earth statement by our Home Affairs Minister. We live in a highly connected globalised but unsafe world. Only one generation ago, it was unimaginable to see such prevalent and frequent extremist attacks on cities around the world.
Now almost every other week, we read in the news somewhere there is another terror attack.
When Obama exterminated Al Qaeda, everyone thought the end of extremist. Yet almost overnight, another terror cell started to grow stronger : ISIL.
The world started to face the new reality of our world, that security is never 100% fortified. We have to stay on alert all the times.
I agree that security and competency of our home team is of utmost importance, but the effectiveness of the support system like medical services, hospitals, rescue and communication is equally if not more important. After all, how you deal with it and the ability of the whole society to get back to normalcy is the key.
As investors, before we invest into fixed assets, we mull over the vulnerability of our investment which is subject to such external unforeseen incidents. Fixed assets as the name implies, are not easily moved. If you invested into a society with a lack of resources or intelligence to deal with terrorism or terror mishaps, you are going to watch the value of your assets vaporised no sooner than you can blink an eye.
Compounding the threat of terrorism, are occurences of natural disasters or gangsterism in a society. As if not enough, if you had bought a property in a land of gangsters; either you become one of them, or you become a victim of your circumstances you gotten yourself into.
Just imagine, you spent your whole productive years working as a coolie; then you invested into all the wrong places and one fine day, you wake up to see your house ruined by some earthquake or gangsters. Or even worse, your productivity is stopped short by some terrorists while you are licking ice cream minding your own business beside a tree, just because the hospitals do not have the expertise to recover you back to normal.
The new reality is here. Are you still sleeping?
( To be continued )
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 11:49
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing ( Part 4 of 12 )
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Last Sunday, while I was working overtime in my quiet office. I received a whatsapp msg from a dear friend. When I read the msg, my heart immediately missed a beat. The first image that came to my mind is the now recovered Mr Heng Swee Keat, who had suffered a stroke during a meeting.
Almost instantly, many of my friends texted me, telling me Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has fainted during the rally.
As I corresponded with them, my mental eyes began to bring me back to the year 1977. I saw my late paternal grandfather walking with me after the movie "King Kong" towards the direction of the Singapore River.
Then, we stopped at the bank of the then smelly and murky Singapore River filled to the rim with thick black oil and many bunker boats on the river sides.
My grandfather pointed to a building that looked like a calculator, the then brand new tallest OCBC building opposite the river bank. He told me something which I could not quite understand that time. ( That time, our family already had a jewellery shop in Victoria Street and we were quite affluent, you see )
In his quiet and really slow manner, he told me that when I grew up, to remember to park a property there.
The reality in front of me made my little mind very confused then...I mean the River really stink. Why would anybody want to buy anything there ?
I looked at him blankly and then he said in Hokkien, " I have full confidence in our Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. When you grow up, this place will never be the same."
At this point of recollection, the sobbing friend texted me a video clip of our PM Lee Hsieng Loong taking ill during the rally. While trying my best to console her, I thought about the will of a selfless leader that can do wonders to a nation and her people.
That fainting spell episode will be a turning point for Singapore, much like what Lee's father had done for Singapore.
When PM Lee Hsien Loong walked back strongly to the stage to continue the rally, much in contrast to his paling face in the video clip. I know this man has got what it takes.
As I watched how the fainting Lee with rolling eyes struggled to hold his shaky right hand onto the podium to prevent the fall... my mental voice told me, " I have full confidence in our Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. when my kids grow up, this place will never be the same."
When you invest, you invest into countries with such leader and team, who can fight. You know, while they do the fighting , you can confidently watch your asset prices appreciate many folds.
I mean, how many countries in this world has fighters like ours ?
Divine Discontent indeed.
(To be continued )
Bro, post more often leh.
We need your divine guru power.
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 16:16
Bro, post more often leh.
We need your divine guru power.
wah...thanks for ur support good bro. your encouragement is my strength to write :)
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 16:17
Follow.
Thank U :)
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 16:18
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing ( Part 5 of 12 )
=================
Wait for cooling measures to be removed..Wait for ABSD removal...wait for prices to drop....wait for economy to recover...wait for FED to raise rates, wait for stock market crash, wait for end times....
Wait for this, wait for that, wait how long ? And for what ?? Nobody can predict the future, get it ?
You see, as human creatures, we are conditioned to not be able to detect incremental changes in our environment.
For example, if you have growing up children at home, you will fully understand what I meant. The children are growing up incrementally everyday, but you will not notice these changes on a daily basis.
Because the growing process is incremental day by day, your sensory perception will choose to ignore it.
So one fine day, while you were having breakfast together at your dining table, you suddenly realised how grown up they have become and immediately you rush to the mirror and saw an aged man with grey hair and wrinkles in the mirror. Handsome no more :(
There are so many feverish construction going on around us right now in Singapore. Yet as commuters on the roads between these on-going urban redevelopments, our brain will choose to ignore them. You will not notice any difference until one fine day, you wake up and see a brand new city emerged as if overnight. That means 5 years have past.
Don't believe later you open your eyes while driving or commuting as passengers and see for yourselves.
Not every city in the world will have such incremental and value enhancing changes everyday. Even if you talk about rapid developing cities in China with developing changes, the final result of the urban development will be in great contrast to Singapore. That is, they may not be value enhancing.
Do you know why ?
Because one may have all the hardware in a city : brand new nice looking buildings, but one may not have the required softwares like experts, advanced technology, supporting services, programs, legal systems, schools, education experts, medical experts, banking professionals, people events, cultural programs, transports, roads, traffic, human traffic, etc to sustain them.
In other words, things that keep a city alive and make it interesting. Or what the policymakers at our Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority like to say , "having a modern sustainable city."
If a nice city does not have such sustainable elements, that is as good as having a nice looking but "dead" city.
It will take 5 years to redevelop a city, it will take another 5 years to kill it if there are no such sustainable elements like the software I mentioned above to keep it alive.
Do you think Singapore has the software ? Do you think our software is better than other cities ?
Do you think we will have the critical mass in human traffic to support the city? Remember the population white paper.
If you do, will you still choose to be inattentive to such incremental changes of our city development everyday ?
How many 10 years do you and me have left now ? Two , three ?
8 years have past since the first cooling measures by Monetary Authority of Singapore; has the Singapore property market crashed or even prices softened a little yet?
Will you still choose to wait? In property investing, you do not look at the price of the property, inflation and currency wars will take care of it. You look at whether you can afford it now.
There is no right time to enter the Singapore property market because of all the factors I have shared with you thus far in my articles.
If you choose to wait for all the current construction in the Lion City to be completed, all the new towns to be matured, all the new roads to be completed...then be prepared to pay the premium for it.
If you can afford it, just buy it now! Because 5 years later, you may not be able to afford it.
Just like my handsome bro , wait to go after a nice lady...wait ,wait, wait, wait until lau charbo liao then u go after la ...Go after her right now like a man, the most kena scolding and rejection. Better than later she lau charbo liao and come after you !!!
(To be continued )
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 17:31
Title : Property Investing-Last man standing ( Part 6 of 12 )
=================
What is the very basic everyone on this planet want ? What they want is what you want.
I tell you, even if it is a poor man in Africa, the very basic item he wants is Stability.
Without a safe and stable society, it will be no use to have a roof and pointless to accumulate wealth. How so ?
The more stable a society,( the ones with the least disruption to productivity ) the more the probability that it will progress to have an overall affluent population eventually. Because disruption to work is rare.
Imagine your productivity or work frequently disrupted by protests, natural disasters and social turbulence. Or your wealth eroded by astronomical hyper inflation or currency crash or crimes , all due to a group of incompetence political leaders who are incapable of managing risks and solving problems.
In our recent Singapore history, such risks are virtually non existent or rather, the probability is very low.
Now we look at the wider global developments unfolding . What did you see ? More instability. How so?
Because the planet as a whole, has many incompetent and corrupted leaders. Leaders who are weak, unable to control crimes. Or leaders who siphon funds meant for the people into their own pockets. And leaders who have no self control over greed and power abuse. This will get worse with easier movement of money around the globe using a soon to release new technology.
This was a fact in the past, and shall be a new norm in our current global environment. Many countries will get worse with currency wars, battles, stock markets manipulation, rigged funds, shadow banks and terrorist attacks. Their societies unstable, with citizens fleeing from war zones, and refugees fleeing from an impotent economy.
Just look at the current state of global powers, what did you see? Do you see a big borrower at the mercy of a lender. But this borrower has the biggest gun on planet Earth?
Do you see a bipolar power stalemate like what I am seeing now? Do you anticipate more protectionist trade ? Do you see more turbulence like acts of GOD or wars?
I did and that is why I say, in many countries their property markets will suffer in the next 15 years because of this new global environment. Thereby causing a mass exodus of economic refugees very very soon into stable and well governed countries. These economic refugees are not the uneducated ones but highly effective professionals that have knowledge of global affairs and how economy works.
Stable countries like Singapore, who is capable of protecting the wealth in the assets the common workers purchased through their work, will benefit from this wave.
New global uncertainty and the mass exodus of economic refugees will make Singapore property the price of GOLD within the next 10 years. Got money also may not be able to buy a HDB here due to our immigration policy and new laws and criteria shall be imposed.
( To be continued )
Dunno love or hate you.
The MND increased developmental charges by 2.7% after reading your articles.
blackjack21trader
31-08-16, 18:49
Dunno love or hate you.
The MND increased developmental charges by 2.7% after reading your articles.
wahlaueh, good bro...not my fault leh....:)
Dunno love or hate you.
The MND increased developmental charges by 2.7% after reading your articles.
New control measure.
Can buy and really want to buy better quickly buy up the existing development units.
Next batches costs go up what will happen?
New control measure.
The DC rates for Use Group B2 {Residential (non-landed)} have increased by 2.7% on average. 39 out of 118 sectors have increases in DC rates ranging from 5% to 12%. Rates are unchanged for the remaining 79 sectors. The largest increase of 12% applies to sector 48 (River Valley Road / River Valley Close / Kim Yam Road / Martin Road / Martin Place / Mohamed Sultan Road)
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/news/2016/aug/pr16-55.aspx
So sad, if only bank can loan me money to buy.
Miss the good old days when buying property in Singapore.
blackjack21trader
01-09-16, 20:55
easy, unload and upgrade to CCR, bro :)
bargain hunter
01-09-16, 21:31
easy, unload and upgrade to CCR, bro :)
CCR resale supply could possibly decrease after today's TDSR announcement.
CCR resale supply could possibly decrease after today's TDSR announcement.
All segments of resale supply will reduce drastically with the easy refinancing.
Major movements will be seen at new sales.
bargain hunter
01-09-16, 23:48
All segments of resale supply will reduce drastically with the easy refinancing.
Major movements will be seen at new sales.
yup. was just responding to bro blackjack's suggestion for upgrade to ccr.
blackjack21trader
05-09-16, 15:01
Yes, if possible upgrade to RCR or CCR privates. that is where all the happenings will be. Look at South Beach, a huge truck parked right there silently waiting only...
South Beach is very beautiful. Facebook Asia headquarters are there.
blackjack21trader
07-09-16, 13:00
South Beach is very beautiful. Facebook Asia headquarters are there.
yeah, good bro :) agree
new iconic landmark soon
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