View Full Version : Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley
Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley expects property prices to increase by 5 to 6 per cent per annum.
The protracted downtrend in Singapore's property market is poised to end next year, with home prices set to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.
"Property market bears expect slower population growth, an ageing population, and a structural growth slowdown to weigh on the long-term property market outlook," the note said. "We disagree and believe home prices will double by 2030."
That implies a 5 to 6 per cent increase per annum and would mark a reversal from a long downtrend in home prices.
In the first quarter, overall private home prices fell 0.5 per cent on-quarter, the 14th straight quarter of declines. This time around, however, the bulk of the decline was in relatively small landed property segment, while non-landed prices were steady.
The city-state's housing prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, propelled by rock-bottom global interest rates and quantitative easing in developed economies, even as the government enacted a series of cooling measures from 2011 to prevent a bubble from forming.
But in early March, the government scaled back some of the curbs, including lowering the seller's stamp duty and shortening the minimum holding period to avoid it.
Morgan Stanley said that was a signal the property market was closer to the bottom, which should improve buyer sentiment.
There were signs buyer sentiment has already picked up: One recent launch, Park Place Residences, sold its entire phase one, initially set at 40 per cent of the 429-unit total before being raised to 50 per cent, within a day.
The bank expected sales volume would surge this year, with the increases in transaction volumes to spur prices higher next year.
Supply was also set to decline, the bank noted. From 2014-16, private residential supply added around 20,000 units a year, twice the historical average since 1990, it noted. But in 2017-18, supply levels were set to fall 40 per cent each year, it said.
The property market in Singapore can be closely watched for economic and investment implications.
Morgan Stanley noted that around 91 per cent of Singapore's resident households own their homes, with residential property around 45 per cent of total household gross assets last year.
Additionally, Asian investors tend to have large allocations to property in their portfolios.
While property bears were pointing to an aging population, Morgan Stanley noted a rising household formation rate driven by singles, and a shift toward higher-skilled foreign workers.
It estimated that by 2030, one in five Singapore households would be occupied by just one person, up from one in eight in 2010.
Additionally, it expected "a combination of bequest motives, lease buyback schemes, and shifting manpower trends assuage property market selling pressures that come as the population ages."
It also expected that Singapore's medium-term economic growth potential of around 3 per cent over 2016-2030 meant it would outperform other developed economies and support income growth.
On Thursday, Singapore reported first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 per cent on-year, down from 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
"The Singapore economy is likely to see a cyclical recovery from better-than-expected external demand," the note said. "Given that changes in economic conditions have a direct bearing on the property market, the improving macroeconomic outlook would be supportive of a property market recovery."
link (http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/singapore-property-prices-double-2030-morgan-stanleyhttp://)
PropVestor
13-04-17, 22:26
Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley expects property prices to increase by 5 to 6 per cent per annum.
The protracted downtrend in Singapore's property market is poised to end next year, with home prices set to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.
"Property market bears expect slower population growth, an ageing population, and a structural growth slowdown to weigh on the long-term property market outlook," the note said. "We disagree and believe home prices will double by 2030."
That implies a 5 to 6 per cent increase per annum and would mark a reversal from a long downtrend in home prices.
In the first quarter, overall private home prices fell 0.5 per cent on-quarter, the 14th straight quarter of declines. This time around, however, the bulk of the decline was in relatively small landed property segment, while non-landed prices were steady.
The city-state's housing prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, propelled by rock-bottom global interest rates and quantitative easing in developed economies, even as the government enacted a series of cooling measures from 2011 to prevent a bubble from forming.
But in early March, the government scaled back some of the curbs, including lowering the seller's stamp duty and shortening the minimum holding period to avoid it.
Morgan Stanley said that was a signal the property market was closer to the bottom, which should improve buyer sentiment.
There were signs buyer sentiment has already picked up: One recent launch, Park Place Residences, sold its entire phase one, initially set at 40 per cent of the 429-unit total before being raised to 50 per cent, within a day.
The bank expected sales volume would surge this year, with the increases in transaction volumes to spur prices higher next year.
Supply was also set to decline, the bank noted. From 2014-16, private residential supply added around 20,000 units a year, twice the historical average since 1990, it noted. But in 2017-18, supply levels were set to fall 40 per cent each year, it said.
The property market in Singapore can be closely watched for economic and investment implications.
Morgan Stanley noted that around 91 per cent of Singapore's resident households own their homes, with residential property around 45 per cent of total household gross assets last year.
Additionally, Asian investors tend to have large allocations to property in their portfolios.
While property bears were pointing to an aging population, Morgan Stanley noted a rising household formation rate driven by singles, and a shift toward higher-skilled foreign workers.
It estimated that by 2030, one in five Singapore households would be occupied by just one person, up from one in eight in 2010.
Additionally, it expected "a combination of bequest motives, lease buyback schemes, and shifting manpower trends assuage property market selling pressures that come as the population ages."
It also expected that Singapore's medium-term economic growth potential of around 3 per cent over 2016-2030 meant it would outperform other developed economies and support income growth.
On Thursday, Singapore reported first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 per cent on-year, down from 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
"The Singapore economy is likely to see a cyclical recovery from better-than-expected external demand," the note said. "Given that changes in economic conditions have a direct bearing on the property market, the improving macroeconomic outlook would be supportive of a property market recovery."
link (http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/singapore-property-prices-double-2030-morgan-stanleyhttp://)
This article is fairly speculative. It addresses the oversupply equation partially by stating singles would drive some demand but this is not enough to double prices by 2030. 1 in 4 will be over 65 is amounting to 900k.
https://www.nptd.gov.sg/PORTALS/0/HOMEPAGE/HIGHLIGHTS/ocassional-paper-citizen-population-scenarios.pdf
The only way we can have such inflated prices by 2030 is simply adding migrants to Singapore which is not mentioned by MS. The oversupply we are facing will take years to absorb. Another point which singles alone cannot address. Moreover, these singles will likely shuttle between their aged parents and their own homes which they might lease out a room or 2 for their own income. This, minimizing the impact of demand from foreigners or migrants.
I also see home ownership to decline slightly over time as not all Millenials who are experiential driven wanting to be saddled with huge SG housing debts in about 10 years.
As much as I want my properties to enjoy such 'gains', the scenario of price doubling is very unlikely. What a potshot from a well known financial brand to spur growth in such downtrend.
2 cents,
PropVestor
Would "Morgan Stanley expects property prices to increase by 5 to 6 percent per annum" be more accurate or PropVestor "As much as I want my properties to enjoy such 'gains', the scenario of price doubling is very unlikely. What a potshot from a well known financial brand to spur growth in such downtrend. " more accurate.
Your guess is as good as mine.
I will place my bet on MS given MS have access to lot more data than PropVestor.
Let get the Data to speak.
Another former HUDC estate Eunosville put up for en bloc sale
Owners of 330-unit Eunosville have put their former HUDC estate up for collective sale - the second such sale this week.
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/another-former-hudc-estate-eunosville-put-up-for-enbloc-sale
Former HUDC estate Rio Casa up for en bloc sale
As there are 286 apartment and maisonette units, each owner would receive about S$1.6 million per unit through the sale.
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/former-hudc-estate-rio-casa-up-for-en-bloc-sale
Singapore, 20 MAY 2016 – Shunfu Ville, a 358-unit residential development in the popular Bishan/ Thomson area, has been successfully sold to a unit of Qingjian Realty (South Pacific) Group Pte Ltd, a conglomerate with a wide range of business operations such as contracting, investments, real estate development, capital management and logistics.
http://www.jll.com.sg/singapore/en-gb/news/404/shunfu-ville-sold-for-638-million-in-largest-en-bloc-deal-in-nine-years#.WO-chfmGN0w
Sources say owners of the 175-unit Raintree Gardens in Potong Pasir Avenue 1 have got the minimum consent level required for the site to be launched for sale.
http://www.homeanddecor.com.sg/articles/84499-after-shunfu-another-potential-hudc-en-bloc-sale-potong-pasir
List of HUDCs
HUDC Location Status New Condo
Amberville Marine Parade enblocked Silversea
Braddell View Toa Payoh privatised 2017
Chancery Court Novena privatized 2004
Eunosville Geylang privatised 2011
Farrer Court Bukit Timah enblocked D”Leedon
Gillman Heights Bukit Merah enblocked Interlace
Rio Casa Hougang privatised
Florence Regency Hougang privatised
Ivory Heights Jurong East privatised 1998
Laguna Park Marine Parade privatised 2007
Lakeview Bishan privatised 2003
Minton Rise Hougang enblocked The Minton
Pine Grove Bukit Timah privatised 1996
Raintree Gardens Toa Payoh enblocked 2016
Serangoon North Serangoon privatised
Shunfu Ville Bishan enblocked 2016
Tampines Court Tampines privatised 2002
Waterfront View Bedok enblocked 2007 Waterfront Collection
http://www.tampinescourt.net/p/hudc-collective-sales.html
Annual take-up of HDB’s Lease Buyback Scheme more than doubles
SINGAPORE: Five hundred and forty-one households have taken up Housing and Development Board’s Lease Buyback Scheme within a year of enhancements, with 233 households owners of four-room flats.
HDB noted that this annual take-up had more than doubled compared to previous years. Since the launch of the scheme in 2009, 471 households signed up in the first four years - averaging at about 117 annually. A further 494 took up the scheme following modifications in February 2013 over a period of about two years, an average of slightly less than 250 a year.
The Lease Buyback Scheme is catered to elderly home owners living in four-room flats or smaller. They can sell the tail end of their flat’s 99-year lease back to HDB, in exchange for a cash bonus.
On top of that, the proceeds from selling their flat’s lease will be used to top up their CPF Retirement Account. This provides them with monthly payouts, while they continue living in their flats.
Among the 541 households who took up the scheme is Mr Abdul Rahman Kemat. He and his wife have been living in their four-room flat in Jurong West for since 1985.
In January, the 68-year-old decided to sell about 34 years of the remaining lease of his flat to the Government under the Lease Buyback Scheme, giving him a payout of about S$1,000 each month. HDB then sold a new 35-year lease of Mr Abdul Rahman's flat to him at S$228,900 under the Lease Buyback Scheme.
Because the security officer expects to retire soon, he said the extra income is useful. And that the Lease Buyback Scheme was the best option for him, as he did not want to downgrade to a smaller flat or rent out his apartment.
"Because I love this place so much," he said. "The people here, I know well. My children are all grown up, they've got grown-up children. So I think it is not suitable for me to stay with my children. So I prefer to stay independently here with my wife."
The latest round of enhancements, which kicked in in April last year, saw four changes to the scheme to benefit more elderly citizens and make it more flexible:
The scheme was extended to 4-room flats, covering 75 per cent of elderly households, up from 35 per cent previously
The income ceiling was raised from S$3,000 to S$12,000
Households with two or more owners will only need to each top up their CPF Retirement Account to the basic age-adjusted retirement sum, instead of the full age-adjusted retirement sum. This gives them more cash in hand
Elderly households can choose how long they want their lease to be retained, from 15, 20, 25, 30 or a maximum of 35 years. But it must cover the youngest owner until he or she is 95 years old. Previously, flat-owners only had the option of keeping a 30-year lease
'STILL A SMALL PORTION OF ELIGIBLE HOUSEHOLDS': ANALYST
Since then, around 5 per cent of the 541 households who signed up had income exceeding S$3,000. Nearly half, 261 households, chose to retain a lease length other than 30 years.
"Perhaps one of the reasons is that retirees in four-room flats may feel that the value of their flats is a bit larger," said Mr Nicholas Mak, executive director of SLP International Property Consultants. "So if they were to join this scheme, they would be able to unlock a larger part of cash that can help them in their retirement planning."
Mr Mak said while there was a significant increase in the take-up of the Lease Buyback Scheme, it is still a small proportion of the eligible households.
"When we look at over 500 households that have taken up this scheme, and we compare this islandwide, with all the HDB flats that's available out there, the number seems to be very small. I estimate less than 1 per cent of the eligible households have actually taken up this scheme," he said.
Mr Mak said that perhaps more awareness of the scheme was needed to encourage more households to take part. HDB added that it will continue outreach efforts to help elderly households better understand the monetisation options available to them.
HDB is providing financial counselling for applicants of the Lease Buyback Scheme. During these counselling sessions, the various monetisation options available are explained to those interested. They are also given an estimation of how much total payout and monthly income they can expect to receive.
- CNA/rw
https://fb-s-c-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xfa1/v/t31.0-8/17880753_10210244614284704_1829372101622682279_o.jpg?oh=4f1cf137012e9591bef3cfbca5f693e6&oe=59819E44&__gda__=1502865762_0d49abd2b0c40a2f0f0f21677a489939
proud owner
14-04-17, 01:07
A few points to ponder :
1. After what minister Wong said about buying OLD HDB, i am expecting HDB resale to slow down.
Young couples will buy brand new ones from HDB.
Or they buy private condos, new and old....which have a higher chance of enbloc than HDB.
2. MS did not say, but as mentioned by PropVestor :
The only way we can have such inflated prices by 2030 is simply adding migrants to Singapore which is not mentioned by MS.
The plan to increase our population is still alive. After much complaints about the quality of our FTs, the gate was 'shut'.
I am sure, it will be opened again, and sooner than we think.
3. Comparing Singapore with China and Hong Kong, our prices have fallen far behind theirs. What more, many of ours are Freehold, while theirs are
mostly leasehold.
I am not surprise if MS is right this time....
MS may be right after all, but only for freehold properties!
99-years Leasehold? Better sell before the property has reach 20 years old (regardless of HDB or private)!
Enbloc? May be somebody could provide some data on how many % of 99-years leasehold private estates are successful in enbloc (could be quite small, just like HDB SERS).......... :p
The problem with 99-years LH enbloc is that these people after getting the money for say 70-years or 60-years lease compensation for their properties could not even buy a similar newer 99-years LH property because they just need to pay extra to top up to 99-years lease! That is the ultimate problem with leasehold properties - They just depreciate in value!
A few points to ponder :
1. After what minister Wong said about buying OLD HDB, i am expecting HDB resale to slow down.
Young couples will buy brand new ones from HDB.
Or they buy private condos, new and old....which have a higher chance of enbloc than HDB.
2. MS did not say, but as mentioned by PropVestor :
The only way we can have such inflated prices by 2030 is simply adding migrants to Singapore which is not mentioned by MS.
The plan to increase our population is still alive. After much complaints about the quality of our FTs, the gate was 'shut'.
I am sure, it will be opened again, and sooner than we think.
3. Comparing Singapore with China and Hong Kong, our prices have fallen far behind theirs. What more, many of ours are Freehold, while theirs are
mostly leasehold.
I am not surprise if MS is right this time....
A few points to ponder :
1. After what minister Wong said about buying OLD HDB, i am expecting HDB resale to slow down.
Young couples will buy brand new ones from HDB.
I would say the awaking of the young people to look at HDB as an investment instead of Self-stays.
It will not take long for them to know it is another good source of secondary income, simple math no Laplace transform or differential transformation.
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/differential-equations/laplace-transform/laplace-transform-tutorial/v/laplace-transform-1
2. MS did not say, but as mentioned by PropVestor :
The only way we can have such inflated prices by 2030 is simply adding migrants to Singapore which is not mentioned by MS.
The plan to increase our population is still alive. After much complaints about the quality of our FTs, the gate was 'shut'.
I am sure, it will be opened again, and sooner than we think.
The plan is alive whether you like it or not, it just slows down not stop.
http://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers
This chart shows the steady increase of EP and S pass holders from 2012 to 2016 even after the watershed 2011 election and even as Singapore has gone through a drastic economic slowdown from 2015 onwards.
https://population.sg/articles/who-is-in-our-population
MS may be right after all, but only for freehold properties!
99-years Leasehold? Better sell before the property has reach 20 years old (regardless of HDB or private)!
Enbloc? May be somebody could provide some data on how many % of 99-years leasehold private estates are successful in enbloc (could be quite small, just like HDB SERS).......... :p
The problem with 99-years LH enbloc is that these people after getting the money for say 70-years or 60-years lease compensation for their properties could not even buy a similar newer 99-years LH property because they just need to pay extra to top up to 99-years lease! That is the ultimate problem with leasehold properties - They just depreciate in value!
Freehold or Leasehold when North Korea land their misslie in US everything change.
proud owner
14-04-17, 01:57
Freehold or Leasehold when North Korea land their misslie in US everything change.
their missiles will never reach USA soil....
Enbloc? May be somebody could provide some data on how many % of 99-years leasehold private estates are successful in enbloc (could be quite small, just like HDB SERS)..........
Just Look at HUDC and you will know the data.
proud owner
14-04-17, 02:10
so long as the 99LH condo is not one of those from Far east FH turned 103yr LH condos... should have chance to be enbloc ... assuming mkt conditions are good.
Amber Woods
14-04-17, 19:01
Do not be naive to believe in whatever a journalist say. He or she could well have been paid by some developers to write this article as they hope for a good launch.
Do not be naive to believe in whatever a journalist say. He or she could well have been paid by some developers to write this article as they hope for a good launch.
I think it's a reasonable prediction. With other regional cities are catching up in infrastructures on the par with Sg, we can expect their property value to increase significantly. If Sg property price is to remain stagnant, it has negative economic implications.
PropVestor
15-04-17, 00:14
I think it's a reasonable prediction. With other regional cities are catching up in infrastructures on the par with Sg, we can expect their property value to increase significantly. If Sg property price is to remain stagnant, it has negative economic implications.
Property prices anywhere is largely a supply and demand economics. The implications of those two factors are quite a few like population growth, GDP, interest rates, political stability and general perception towards a positive/negative future etc.
It is true that I do not have access to the data that MS is looking at to state '5 to 6%' growth in prices. But to put it simply, doubling of prices in 13 years is a real blanket statement. The circumstantial facts that points toward that outcome in that article is IMHO very speculative and narrowed.
If we really have this outcome, it will be really sad for our future generation as an even bigger segment of wealth will be held by a few and income gap will be further widened. SG may lose its price competitiveness to attract talents of ALL levels to come. Do we only want to see this place exclusive to the very wealthy only? I don't.
I hate to see 2030 comes and when I turn 50 that year. Only the very rich can buy our apartments we buy today or the last few years. Example, 2030: CCR average $6,000 psf+. Yes, I will be happy with a sizable nest egg settlement but as a local, we need residential prices to rise slowly. Just taking a longer view of things.......
2 cents,
PropVestor
What is the point of your CCR fetching $6000 psf for just a while for a 99-years leasehold property and it will ultimately becomes ZERO at the end of the 99-years lease?
Property prices anywhere is largely a supply and demand economics. The implications of those two factors are quite a few like population growth, GDP, interest rates, political stability and general perception towards a positive/negative future etc.
It is true that I do not have access to the data that MS is looking at to state '5 to 6%' growth in prices. But to put it simply, doubling of prices in 13 years is a real blanket statement. The circumstantial facts that points toward that outcome in that article is IMHO very speculative and narrowed.
If we really have this outcome, it will be really sad for our future generation as an even bigger segment of wealth will be held by a few and income gap will be further widened. SG may lose its price competitiveness to attract talents of ALL levels to come. Do we only want to see this place exclusive to the very wealthy only? I don't.
I hate to see 2030 comes and when I turn 50 that year. Only the very rich can buy our apartments we buy today or the last few years. Example, 2030: CCR average $6,000 psf+. Yes, I will be happy with a sizable nest egg settlement but as a local, we need residential prices to rise slowly. Just taking a longer view of things.......
2 cents,
PropVestor
proud owner
15-04-17, 01:41
Do not be naive to believe in whatever a journalist say. He or she could well have been paid by some developers to write this article as they hope for a good launch.
This particular report is from MS, Morgan Stanley.
It is meant for their internal clients.
Very often these reports get 'leaked' ..
I am 100 pct certain, no developer will / can/ able to, pay a bank analyst to write something to boost their sales..
Amber Woods
15-04-17, 01:47
Do not be naive to believe in whatever a journalist say. He or she could well have been paid by some developers to write this article as they hope for a good launch.
I think it's a reasonable prediction. With other regional cities are catching up in infrastructures on the par with Sg, we can expect their property value to increase significantly. If Sg property price is to remain stagnant, it has negative economic implications.
MAS already said that prices (only declined by about 12% from the peak) has not corrected to reasonable level only early this year. During GE 2011, price level was at about what it is now, had vote swung more than 12%. LKY admitted that the poor showing in GE 2011 was due to high property prices. With price correction only by just 12%, the government must be insane to allow prices to go up from here when it has admitted that prices have not corrected to reasonable level. The government will not allow prices to double by 2030 within the next 13 years and that can be very certain. For Morgan Stanley's writer to even write such a piece of article is like generating "fake news" to benefit some interest groups like the rich and powerful developers themselves.
Amber Woods
15-04-17, 01:53
Do not be naive to believe in whatever a journalist say. He or she could well have been paid by some developers to write this article as they hope for a good launch.
This particular report is from MS, Morgan Stanley.
It is meant for their internal clients.
Very often these reports get 'leaked' ..
I am 100 pct certain, no developer will / can/ able to, pay a bank analyst to write something to boost their sales..
Many listed companies and Chinese companies are doing that especially if their target readers are the HNW (high networth) clients around the world.
Amber Woods
15-04-17, 02:07
The US financial meltdown was mainly due to banks like Goldman Sache and these banks' analysts. They are well rewarded by the rich and the powerful and also the people in power.
Property prices anywhere is largely a supply and demand economics. The implications of those two factors are quite a few like population growth, GDP, interest rates, political stability and general perception towards a positive/negative future etc.
It is true that I do not have access to the data that MS is looking at to state '5 to 6%' growth in prices. But to put it simply, doubling of prices in 13 years is a real blanket statement. The circumstantial facts that points toward that outcome in that article is IMHO very speculative and narrowed.
If we really have this outcome, it will be really sad for our future generation as an even bigger segment of wealth will be held by a few and income gap will be further widened. SG may lose its price competitiveness to attract talents of ALL levels to come. Do we only want to see this place exclusive to the very wealthy only? I don't.
I hate to see 2030 comes and when I turn 50 that year. Only the very rich can buy our apartments we buy today or the last few years. Example, 2030: CCR average $6,000 psf+. Yes, I will be happy with a sizable nest egg settlement but as a local, we need residential prices to rise slowly. Just taking a longer view of things.......
2 cents,
PropVestor
Only Time can tell what will be the price of property in 2030.
I can only say, if one can afford to buy and not buy now then when is a good time to buy.
Remember your Timeline is getting shorter by the day and in no time 10 years will past by without you knowing.
2006 was a time when I can buy but don't dare to buy, fortunate for me a friend show me the right way.
After all the money printing, property only got one direction. They can only do so much to hold the price, Time will still show the right price.
Just remember how many 10 years do you have.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
Amber Woods
15-04-17, 13:04
Only Time can tell what will be the price of property in 2030.
I can only say, if one can afford to buy and not buy now then when is a good time to buy.
Remember your Timeline is getting shorter by the day and in no time 10 years will past by without you knowing.
2006 was a time when I can buy but don't dare to buy, fortunate for me a friend show me the right way.
After all the money printing, property only got one direction. They can only do so much to hold the price, Time will still show the right price.
Just remember how many 10 years do you have.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
You always talk about your purchase in year 2006 which was the year the market was at its lowest and many people fear of buying. I can only say either you are lucky or your timing was perfect then. Why don't you talk about your recent purchases between 2011 and 2013 when you bought at the high?
Indeed, we may not have many ten years to wait. However, we should bear in mind that property is not the only asset class worth investing.
We should not be overly concern with people who can afford to buy multiple properties for investment. If they are rich, no problem for them to take the risk. If they are not rich, they pray hard for the market to work their way. It is the group who save every penny to invest in their only property that need to be cautioned. For this group, it is worth waiting for the next ten years.
If you buy a FH property, anytime is a good buy because wait for 100 years and your FH property will be MUCH MORE valuable vs if you buy a 99-years LH property and wait for 99 years and your property VALUE is ZERO............... :biggrin-new:
People will say you never live that long......
Well, when you have a lot of capital, and you want to pass on to your descendants, that is the kind of time frame you will then be looking at to preserve your capital............
Not like many people, as their 99-years leasehold property become older, they will try all means to convince others that 99-years LH property is worth buying so that they can flip their "aging babies" to them............ :pig:
Even if your HDB flat is worth $1M now at 30 years old, it will only become $ZERO in another 69 years time! Time for these people to wake up their idea now with MND Minister's message and all those news now in Main stream media............. :sleep:
You always talk about your purchase in year 2006 which was the year the market was at its lowest and many people fear of buying. I can only say either you are lucky or your timing was perfect then. Why don't you talk about your recent purchases between 2011 and 2013 when you bought at the high?
Indeed, we may not have many ten years to wait. However, we should bear in mind that property is not the only asset class worth investing.
We should not be overly concern with people who can afford to buy multiple properties for investment. If they are rich, no problem for them to take the risk. If they are not rich, they pray hard for the market to work their way. It is the group who save every penny to invest in their only property that need to be cautioned. For this group, it is worth waiting for the next ten years.
You always talk about your purchase in year 2006 which was the year the market was at its lowest and many people fear of buying. I can only say either you are lucky or your timing was perfect then. Why don't you talk about your recent purchases between 2011 and 2013 when you bought at the high?
Indeed, we may not have many ten years to wait. However, we should bear in mind that property is not the only asset class worth investing.
We should not be overly concern with people who can afford to buy multiple properties for investment. If they are rich, no problem for them to take the risk. If they are not rich, they pray hard for the market to work their way. It is the group who save every penny to invest in their only property that need to be cautioned. For this group, it is worth waiting for the next ten years.
http://www.moneycrashers.com/should-buy-house-now/
https://www.quora.com/Should-I-buy-a-house-now-or-wait-to-see-if-the-market-crashes-again-from-what-I-been-hearing
https://www.quora.com/Does-it-make-sense-to-buy-a-house-right-now-or-wait-until-another-possible-market-crash
http://propertyinvestment88.sg/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg
You always talk about your purchase in year 2006 which was the year the market was at its lowest and many people fear of buying. I can only say either you are lucky or your timing was perfect then.
2006 Lucky or perfect timing or God blessing guess nobody will know but one thing I know is the data I have and a simple math to decide.
I have a 5 room HDB bought for S$250,000, MOP selling for S$ 390,000.
CPF about S$100,000 + , O/S loan about S$100,000 +, CASH about S$100,000 +
2 Bedroom selling for S$535,000
Still working at age 43.
What will you do, buy or wait for crash.
Why don't you talk about your recent purchases between 2011 and 2013 when you bought at the high?
2011, Age 47 still working.
5 room HDB with rental income, 2 Bedroom with rental income. staying oversea.
2 Bedroom appreciates by S$1,000,000.
What will you do, wait for the crash or go and buy?
We should not be overly concern with people who can afford to buy multiple properties for investment. If they are rich, no problem for them to take the risk. If they are not rich, they pray hard for the market to work their way. It is the group who save every penny to invest in their only property that need to be cautioned. For this group, it is worth waiting for the next ten years.
I may be wrong but Time will tell 10 years from now.
What I know with Data and simple math.
Billions are pumped into the infrastructure, simple math will tell you the property price cannot stay at present value.
I have a friend who tell me not many can afford to pay for the property and I ask him according to his earning capacity or the present work force.
We are from a group where there are only One Uni, now there are Six. Simple math more are able to buy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_universities_and_colleges_in_Singapore
Try not to time the market, nobody can.
There are lot more Data but too much to put into words.
1996, A short story of catching the crash.
Bought a condo before the crash in 1997 for rental income, bought another one after the crash.
Staying with the parent at a landed property.
Now two fully paid condo collecting rental income.
Told me he will never go into property again because of the stress of owning property, just want to sit back and relax.
2009, A short story of catching the crash.
Bought a Landed property and have to sell because the wife got lay off from Banking job.
Sold Landed property and made a profit of a million dollar.
Wife found a banking job a few month later.
Bought rental income property one after another with the million dollar total 3 and one BUC all FH.
2016 sold the BUC.
Now staying in one of the property almost paid off with two rental income FH property.
不入虎穴,奄得虎子!
The world will always be long to people who take calculated risks more than people who avoid risks.
2013 they said dangerous times I agree. 2015 they said still early I disagree but understand. 2017 the boat engine already started they still say risky...
Unknown year, A short story of catching the crash.
Bought a landed property, work lot of O/T to pay the mortgage and redevelop the property to six room and rent out the room.
Fully pay the property and collecting rental from the room.
Now retired.
不入虎穴,奄得虎子!
The world will always be long to people who take calculated risks more than people who avoid risks.
2013 they said dangerous times I agree. 2015 they said still early I disagree but understand. 2017 the boat engine already started they still say risky...
Just learn the word "Self-Sabotage"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcYu-Bj3SVc
https://www.srx.com.sg/cooling-measures
https://fb-s-a-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xlt1/v/t31.0-8/17973597_10210260075351221_7842457191890600297_o.jpg?oh=47c9b715ed3170731214296ab115dd92&oe=5951BD79&__gda__=1498378954_e46a9c11749c4474c3b4fe2b81c838bf
2006, A short story of catching the crash.
My Brother bought a BUC 4 room HDB BTO at Geylang Serai, staying at a resale 3 room HDB with his PRC wife.
Told his wife he wants to give out the BTO because afraid of losing the job and cannot pay the mortgage.
Wife asks me to talk to him.
Using simple Math, told him when MRT NS and EW line completed, property double.
Now MRT Circles line North-East line underground cost more than surface MRT, property sure goes up.
The rest are history.
Amber Woods
15-04-17, 17:04
2006, A short story of catching the crash.
My Brother bought a BUC 4 room HDB BTO at Geylang Serai, staying at a resale 3 room HDB with his PRC wife.
Told his wife he wants to give out the BTO because afraid of losing the job and cannot pay the mortgage.
Wife asks me to talk to him.
Using simple Math, told him when MRT NS and EW line completed, property double.
Now MRT Circles line North-East line underground cost more than surface MRT, property sure goes up.
The rest are history.
You were lucky to buy at the right time in 2006 and hence there was no looking back. Imagine you if had bought your first property in 2013, your situation would be very different. You will be hoping that your investment would turn out well.
You have actually benefited from timing the market and now telling people timing is not important.
I have seen similar blunder statements from comp like morgan stanley and nomura on SG property. Nothing worth to talk about.
Morgan also predicting SG property down by 20% in 2013 lol
http://sph-vld7.shareinvestor.com/property/local/home-prices-to-fall-20-morgan-stanley/
And it has its own property investment fund, so surely has its own short/long expectation on property price.
I have seen similar blunder statements from comp like morgan stanley and nomura on SG property. Nothing worth to talk about.
Morgan also predicting SG property down by 20% in 2013 lol
http://sph-vld7.shareinvestor.com/property/local/home-prices-to-fall-20-morgan-stanley/
And it has its own property investment fund, so surely has its own short/long expectation on property price.
True, never use only one indicator.
I believe in Big Data.
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/my-new-love-south-east-asia?xtor=CS3-17
Any idea how to know if the property buyers are first time buyer or investors? I hope this info published somewhere.
You were lucky to buy at the right time in 2006 and hence there was no looking back. Imagine you if had bought your first property in 2013, your situation would be very different. You will be hoping that your investment would turn out well.
You have actually benefited from timing the market and now telling people timing is not important.
If only I know how to time the market.
True I bought at the right time, I also show there are those who bought at the wrong time also.
It is not easy for everyone to see a picture with only one view.
A picture can be seen from a number of views depending on the person past and present experience.
Just sharing what I see, only Time can tell me whether I am right or wrong others only noise.
Each has to decide what is noise and what is not and let Time tell you the Truth.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
This picture wakes me up, do this do the same to you.
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/chart-day-over-41000-homes-set-flood-property-market-in-2016
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/imagecache/600x360/news/chart-singapore-housing-supply.PNG
不入虎穴,奄得虎子!
The world will always be long to people who take calculated risks more than people who avoid risks.
2013 they said dangerous times I agree. 2015 they said still early I disagree but understand. 2017 the boat engine already started they still say risky...
Agree. 2012 when I sold my HDB and bought condo I know that it will difficult to pay monthly mortgage for the condo. So what I did I pay min Down payment using money from selling HDB and use the balance money to help my 3 year buffer. After 3 year salary increment I can pay the monthly mortgage without have to struggle to much.
walkthetiger
15-04-17, 22:57
You were lucky to buy at the right time in 2006 and hence there was no looking back. Imagine you if had bought your first property in 2013, your situation would be very different. You will be hoping that your investment would turn out well.
You have actually benefited from timing the market and now telling people timing is not important.
With those major cooling measures still in place, and bank can't loan him to buy further as well, so have no worry to find much common folks jumping foolishy in again. There will be no more bull run for many many years ahead, so no need to be so excited about current market.
With those major cooling measures still in place, and bank can't loan him to buy further as well, so have no worry to find much common folks jumping foolishy in again. There will be no more bull run for many many years ahead, so no need to be so excited about current market.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
Already 53 what more do I ask from God. Amen
Happy Easter.
https://fb-s-b-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/17799138_10210230049800601_8301327340438682998_n.jpg?oh=66473ab7494c72dddca2865d942f2db1&oe=598F8646&__gda__=1501790881_6e2b02f410db3870aea9919fe5fb9ea4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKfhpOPIPv4
PropVestor
15-04-17, 23:30
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
Already 53 what more do I ask from God. Amen
Happy Easter.
https://fb-s-b-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/17799138_10210230049800601_8301327340438682998_n.jpg?oh=66473ab7494c72dddca2865d942f2db1&oe=598F8646&__gda__=1501790881_6e2b02f410db3870aea9919fe5fb9ea4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKfhpOPIPv4
Amen. Happy Easter bro.
https://fb-s-b-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/17883795_10210225647610549_511251952592955700_n.jpg?oh=c74f69349d075814ebcb841307245573&oe=599A4905&__gda__=1498282548_a8d5ececb95d2351a1b6a5ba24a89b60
https://fb-s-b-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/17523081_10210225674811229_3292395317340846693_n.jpg?oh=c4e241545c8cc600d4a4ee8f25755ca4&oe=59900DE3&__gda__=1501725444_4d45dd407b3c1c39fdb953aacdd56377
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOJRSqlckMY
proud owner
16-04-17, 01:21
Many listed companies and Chinese companies are doing that especially if their target readers are the HNW (high networth) clients around the world.
That may be true. BUT then those reports will be written by those companies ... NOT A BANK like Morgan Stanley , not any bank.
At most the bank analyst can write is the SHARE VALUE of those companies...
proud owner
16-04-17, 01:25
You always talk about your purchase in year 2006 which was the year the market was at its lowest and many people fear of buying. I can only say either you are lucky or your timing was perfect then. Why don't you talk about your recent purchases between 2011 and 2013 when you bought at the high?
Indeed, we may not have many ten years to wait. However, we should bear in mind that property is not the only asset class worth investing.
We should not be overly concern with people who can afford to buy multiple properties for investment. If they are rich, no problem for them to take the risk. If they are not rich, they pray hard for the market to work their way. It is the group who save every penny to invest in their only property that need to be cautioned. For this group, it is worth waiting for the next ten years.
Then these group should not be concerned at all about private properties...
Apply BTO .. HDB sure make money ...
Then again there are many HDB dwellers/owners driving BMW Merc etc ... owning at the same time condos ...
proud owner
16-04-17, 01:27
The US financial meltdown was mainly due to banks like Goldman Sache and these banks' analysts. They are well rewarded by the rich and the powerful and also the people in power.
And that crisis rippled through the whole world...
Do you think a property Crash in Singapore will cause any kind of meltdown the rest of the world would worry ?
proud owner
16-04-17, 01:42
Timing is important when it comes to investment...in anything...
I too, bought most of my properties in 2005 and 2006.
In fact I started looking in 2004, when the world was still recovering from SARS.
I had at that time a condo bought in 1997, which was the HIGH before Asian crisis.
By 2005, that condo was valued only at 60 pct of what i paid.
I also know, sell low, buy low..
So bought more in 2005 2006 ...
sold my fist condo (which fell to only 60pct) in 2008 at ABOVE purchase price. Market recovered.
I bought another landed in 2010 (considered high, higher than 2006 at least)
I bought another condo in 2011. And this is the one i am staying in now. The price hasnt moved (not down, not up)
I have stopped buying, only becos i am not happy to give $$ to govt (ABSD).
I am though looking at Commercial properties. (no ABSD)
Although there were times I told myself...mkt will come off.... there were times I told myself, It will chiong.
Since my first property in 1997, i have never seen prices retrace LOWER than its previous level.
For those who have followed my postings, they may recall me saying numerous times :
The right time to buy is when you know you can service the loans for the next 5 years.
Ask any woman, when they buy a Hermes or LV bag, Do you ever ask yourself, IS THIS THE HIGH?
Will prices drop ?
all these years, they have NEVER lowered their prices.
So i tend to agree with Arcachon
If you can afford it, there is not such time as Correct or best time.
after all, how many 10 years can you wait?
Amber Woods
16-04-17, 08:46
Then these group should not be concerned at all about private properties...
Apply BTO .. HDB sure make money ...
Then again there are many HDB dwellers/owners driving BMW Merc etc ... owning at the same time condos ...
The group who can afford multiple properties mostly has the mean to hold and or afford to loose if being forced to sell. They are not the subject of concern not that they themselves are not concern with the property market.
It is the group who need to save every penny for their first property that is the subject of concern.
Amber Woods
16-04-17, 08:56
That may be true. BUT then those reports will be written by those companies ... NOT A BANK like Morgan Stanley , not any bank.
At most the bank analyst can write is the SHARE VALUE of those companies...
If you have been a HNW client with for long, you would learn not to trust what the banker or their analysts said. Most HNW clients know what they want and they make use of the banks to hold and execute their investments. The banks themselves are also vested with their own private funds which require short/long positions. There are simply too many "paid research" or "vested interest" papers from banks and research houses in the market. Foreign banks are the most guilty lot.
Amber Woods
16-04-17, 08:58
And that crisis rippled through the whole world...
Do you think a property Crash in Singapore will cause any kind of meltdown the rest of the world would worry ?
Just a point to show what these bankers were capable of doing to achieve their desired results and not that the Singapore market can crash the world.
Amber Woods
16-04-17, 09:05
If the government does not intervene the property market, yes, prices could possibly double by 2030. However, the government is watching the market like a hawk so we can be very certain that it will not happen. The writer may not be wrong to speculate that prices will double without qualifying possibly government's intervention.
The common advice for them is to go for HDB, or HDB resales for first property if they qualify.
If their incomes do not qualify them for HDB (>14,000 p.m.) and they can come up with the deposit (20%), then there is very little to worry about. The moment they sell, the moment they can downgrade to a HDB resales.
If they are single, they have much less to worry about as financial commitments are minimal (as compared to a family). And if they have parents to take care of, surely they have a parent's HDB to retreat to.
The group who can afford multiple properties mostly has the mean to hold and or afford to loose if being forced to sell. They are not the subject of concern not that they themselves are not concern with the property market.
It is the group who need to save every penny for their first property that is the subject of concern.
If the government does not intervene the property market, yes, prices could possibly double by 2030. However, the government is watching the market like a hawk so we can be very certain that it will not happen. The writer may not be wrong to speculate that prices will double without qualifying possibly government's intervention.
Yes, Govt is watching all sectors like a hawk. They need more revenue.
Other than GLS, they also looking at COEs and all the taxes to see how to generate more revenues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b4XuKr27NI
http://newscontent.cctv.com/NewJsp/news.jsp?fileId=288796
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgKJQgyxYQY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R58RFbu9TY
http://www.darylang.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/loan-to-value-2013.jpg
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xft1/v/t1.0-9/17264766_10210025724932607_6082543151934735575_n.jpg?oh=07cb9d1e5f1fe51428834471dbf9d919&oe=59541997&__gda__=1501619595_3cc6f4ea3129df237e885a7711f313bc
in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)
in the last 20 years, Singapore property price is driven by immigration and near double digit economic growth. Plus relatively small HDB & private housing stock.
Moving forward, I don't see the same drivers. With advent of technology, we are doing more with less. Especially less manpower. The banks are hiring less. The new bank tech jobs will be less than the investment banking jobs they replace, for example. Same for manufacturing jobs.
So does improving the infrastructure dictate that property prices must increase. Regardless if the country can continue to attract enough talent to support an ageing population?
Or is it a case of we just have to open the gate, and there will be a line forming to come in? (Meaning we have such a high number of good paying jobs but no takers now because we are strict with EP & S pass?)
Agree, you might have miss this.
https://scontent-frt3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16939465_10210269235060208_7527586397646857209_n.jpg?oh=ae2037ee7e07feeda9eec57d0d49f9ce&oe=594C9ADA
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/money-supply-m3
What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............
Agree, you might have miss this.
https://scontent-frt3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16939465_10210269235060208_7527586397646857209_n.jpg?oh=ae2037ee7e07feeda9eec57d0d49f9ce&oe=594C9ADA
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/money-supply-m3
What this means is that there are more S$ moving around and increases much more than GDP in past few years, and hence by right S$ exchange rate should drop, and it is not dropping because of artificial support, and this cannot go on forever.............
I think you miss this.
https://fb-s-c-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xlt1/v/t1.0-9/17952614_10210269546868003_652602376895295616_n.jpg?oh=e85b43d7dea8f7cbe5230a218992330a&oe=594CEFA0&__gda__=1502416531_d0f776fc6f6f7920bea1bbd01d195cc5
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2
Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?
And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........ :wink-new:
I think you miss this.
https://fb-s-c-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-xlt1/v/t1.0-9/17952614_10210269546868003_652602376895295616_n.jpg?oh=e85b43d7dea8f7cbe5230a218992330a&oe=594CEFA0&__gda__=1502416531_d0f776fc6f6f7920bea1bbd01d195cc5
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2
Well I didn't, the fact that S$ money supply is increasing as much as US$, won't S$ exchange rate remain CONSTANT to US$ instead of strengthening from 1.7x to 1.3x?
And you forgot that US doesn't not manipulate and control US$ Exchange Rate, only Singapore controls S$ exchange rate.
So S$ at 1.3x to US$ is not genuine market rate, but controlled rate, and nobody can control their exchange rate forever! Don't believe? You wait and see........ :wink-new:
I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.
ccreporter
16-04-17, 18:46
so long as the 99LH condo is not one of those from Far east FH turned 103yr LH condos... should have chance to be enbloc ... assuming mkt conditions are good.
Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?
Money printed is printed, increases money supply.
As to what they do with the money, if they use it properly, it should increase their GDP and make their people richer. So let's see who use their printed money to better use to benefit their citizens or not...........
I think you also forget what did US do to the printed Money and what did Singapore do to their printed money.
proud owner
16-04-17, 21:11
Maybe FE could also do enbloc to get some quick money before the 99Yr expiry?
If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?
As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.
The best question asked of the day.
It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.
I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.
But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".
If you are a developer, would you even consider enblocking a 99 LH project built by FE? when the actual land lease is FH?
As for FE, those 103yr LH project, No need to enbloc ... let it ROT. By the 103th yr, the land comes back to their family.
The best question asked of the day.
It is relevant to why MND arranges for some (but not all) flats to go for SERS.
I feel developers MIGHT do it only if the plot ratio increases by leaps and bounds such that it is highly profitable to do so and reap more immediate gains. Especially if land parcels from GLS runs out.
But the negotiation won't be easy for the "owners".
Or just become another Geylang Lor 3.
Hi Guys
Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..
One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation
Prices dropped 12%
Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.
Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.
If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?
And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.
The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...
On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc
With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.
Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!
As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....
However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........ :p
With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.
Hi Guys
Imho I feel we should not discount the writer assumptions, if he works for MS and make statement like this without much thought, don't you think he will be ridicule by his bosses and I am sure these reports get vetted before they are published..
One key point we need to remember is inflation. Simple back of envelope calculation
Prices dropped 12%
Inflation from 2013 to 2017 assume average 2%+ per year will total about 10%. So actually prices have dropped about 22%. If prices just increase 3% per year it will just be tracking inflation, technically affordability will not be any different from today. 3% x 13 years plus compounding will be close to 50% already without factoring any actual real increase.
Then there is comparison to other global cities, while we drop 12%, others have increase 25% in the last few years, so the difference is between us and them is about 35 to 40% now.
If the government feel that prices have not dropped enough why not tighten the market further rather than ease the market with the SSD and TDSR refinancing rules?
And remember the government target of 6.9m. No matter what the government says, it WILL happen. If it doesn't then why prepare Tengah, Paya Lebar, southern district for future growth? Who are going to populate these areas? Who is going to work in T5, jewel at Changi, Woodlands, Jurong regional Centres, etc.
The government is facing a v difficult choice, all other gateway cities prices are increasing, how much can they cap the property market? It has to track the growth of the other cities, we can be LV selling at Charles and Keith prices, sooner or later prices has to catch up...
On a separate topic, why do people buy new LH properties when there are older FH properties that are selling at lower prices in the same vicinity? I understand people like new and the herd mentality of all buying under marketing influence at show flats. look at seaside residences, I am sure there are many FH condo selling at much cheaper psf prices? Same for Paya Lebar Quarters area, Cairnhill nine etc
Newer units easier to "FLIP"............ Ha ha ha!
As I said before, people who buy LH property (rather than older FH property) will always buy relatively new so that it will be easier to flip before the property is 20 years old and valuation and number of buyers start to drop significantly due to reducing lease....
However, this kind of game will always keep changing and people will keep wising up and soon we will be seeing people only flipping <15 years old LH properties and then <10 years old LH properties......... They are basically playing the game of "Stop The Music And Find A Seat" and when the music stop many may find themselves without "seat" (NO buyers)........ :p
This is how I look at New Launch and a TOP condo in 2011 before I decided to buy Terrasse.
If I buy the 2 Bedroom at Bencoolen at 1,180,000 my monthly installment is 4164.08 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.
If I can't rent out above 4164.08 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.
Bencoolen has used up 13 years if rent out for 13 years at 4,000 mean a loss of income for 624,000.
Next, I go for Southbank for 1,330,000 my monthly installment is 4693.41 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25.
If I can't rent out above 4693.41 I have to top up the different every month or worst case the whole amount.
Then I go for Southbank for 1,000,000 my monthly installment is 3528.88 for 28 years at a rate of 1.25. tenanted for 3,500.
I can still manage if the unit is not tenanted.
Then I saw Terrasse by MCL selling 4 Bedroom for 1,200,000 that make me think of getting an uncompleted unit instead. This way I can pay the 40% and the rest progressive.
I have passed by the place and find the place not bad, it is near the French international school and the nearby the NEX shopping center.
PropVestor
17-04-17, 14:47
Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?
I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.
Back to 2030 price doubling ....
The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/new-private-home-sales-up-81-8-in-march-with-more-launches/3683682.html?cid=fbcna
2 cents,
PropVestor
Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?
I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.
After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.
Back to 2030 price doubling ....
The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew overoptimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/new-private-home-sales-up-81-8-in-march-with-more-launches/3683682.html?cid=fbcna
2 cents,
PropVestor It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.
The limit have reach that is why they need to release.
https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17904304_10210260091831633_4993779264215807308_n.jpg?oh=f15eb174fea7ed208a85605218d47582&oe=59823DE8
ccreporter
17-04-17, 18:20
Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
Price might rebound if cm is removed.
And how many 10 years do we have....
Post 2013, I have not really given thought that our government will ever completely remove any CMs but play with tweaks as they see fit. All my current properties are bought during CMs and I am sure some prominent investor bloggers and forum members will say its a bad time to invest. Why give money away to the government?
I have also thought about developers IF without the cooling measures would have jacked up their prices as they please and continue to grow this price bubble. Which is better to 'give' money to? I rather give it to the government who will rejuvenate our landscape, plan for land use, improve lives and continue to exercise due caution with any overheating. I hope China property will not blow up because the next 'sub prime crisis' might just happen there.
Back to 2030 price doubling ....
The CMs will cap this growth. Why? CMs are measured largely against inflation, GDP growth, land supply/demand, population growth, interest rates, monetary policies etc. I would caution latching on to media releases such as these without understanding these macro fundamentals. I view this 82% growth in sales for March 2017 is the coincidental launch of a few notable projects for Q1. Good location, smaller quantum or mixed development. Like the article published by MS, this article should also not brew over optimism of the current market which is still fundamentally weak.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/new-private-home-sales-up-81-8-in-march-with-more-launches/3683682.html?cid=fbcna
2 cents,
PropVestor
Managed to siam all the CM so far with careful planning. But going forward cannot siam ABSD anymore.
I like your stance!
Agree with you. I made my purchase during cm too.
Price might rebound if cm is removed.
And how many 10 years do we have....
Singapore property prices to double by 2030: Morgan Stanley
Friday, April 14, 2017
by Lynette Khoo
[email protected]
@LynetteKhooBT
SINGAPORE'S property prices are expected to turn the corner next year, ending a protracted downtrend since late 2013, and to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley says in a note.
This is based on its forecast that home prices will rise by 5 per cent each year on a per square foot (psf) basis from 2018 to 2030.
The bullish report issued by the bank on Wednesday dismisses concerns raised by property market bears who flagged slower population growth, an ageing population and a structural growth slowdown as weighing on the long-term property market outlook.
"We disagree, and in fact, we expect home prices to double by 2030," five Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.
But they noted that with developers likely to continue "right-sizing" units, an estimated one per cent decline in average home size in square feet each year will translate to an average 4 per cent annual growth in prices per unit, hence keeping pace with the anticipated income growth of 4 per cent.
The report suggests that in the long run, it is household formation rate, not population growth, that one should consider - and that figure has been rising.
"We expect a rising household formation rate, driven by singles, and shifting profile of foreign labour towards higher skilled workers to offset the slower headline population growth," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Resident household growth has picked up since 2013, driven by an increasing number of single households. Given rising singlehood here, Morgan Stanley estimates that one in five Singapore resident households will be occupied by just one person by 2030, from one in eight households in 2010.
Secondly, even though Singapore's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to average 3 per cent from 2016 to 2030, it will still be higher than many advanced economies.
The International Monetary Fund expects average annual GDP growth in advanced economies to be 1.7 per cent between 2016 and 2021, while the OECD's estimate of the long-term average potential output for OECD members (which include emerging market economies such as Mexico, Chile and Turkey) stands at about 2.3 per cent per annum between 2016 and 2030.
The outlook for Singapore's economy has brightened lately on the back of export-led growth in the resurgent manufacturing sector. But on Thursday, Singapore's flash estimate showed a slightly lower-than-expected GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2017 from a year earlier, easing from the 2.9 per cent growth in the previous quarter.
Morgan Stanley notes that Singapore remains a globally relevant city that attracts foreign capital and talent. It believes any supply- demand mismatch in the property market is less likely to persist because the massive state-owned land bank and the dominance of public housing provide much flexibility to tweak supply.
Bequest motives, lease buyback schemes and shifting manpower trends will also help assuage property market selling pressures that come as the population ages, it says.
Property prices surged more than 60 per cent from 2009 through 2013, fuelled by rock-bottom global interest rates even as the Singapore government rolled out a series of cooling measures since late 2009 to prevent a bubble from forming. But prices have fallen by only 11.3 per cent as at end-2016 from the peak in Q3 2013. From 1975 to 2016, home prices rose at a rate of 7 per cent per annum.
Indicators of supply-demand dynamics have already improved significantly - residential supply has peaked, demand is now surprising on the upside, and developers' unsold inventory is at an all-time low.
"The recent easing of property curbs suggests that we are closer to the bottom, which will improve buyer sentiment," Morgan Stanley analysts said, referring to the measures taken in early March to lower the seller's stamp duty and shorten the minimum holding period from four years to three years.
In the near term, Singapore's improving macroeconomic outlook and an expected surge in sales volume this year will set the stage for a price recovery next year and developer stocks to rerate over the next 12 months, the report posits.
Morgan Stanley has raised its price targets for Singapore-listed developers by 17 per cent on average, which reflect a tightening of discounts to revalued net asset value from 39 per cent to 28 per cent. Its top picks are CapitaLand, City Developments and UOL Group.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/singapore-property-prices-to-double-by-2030-morgan-stanley
Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.
After 2008 the World know you can get out of 'sub prime' by printing more money and buy the toxic note and keep it in the Central Bank.
It is like building a Water Dam, you can hold the water from flowing down the river up to a limit.
The limit have reach that is why they need to release.
https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17904304_10210260091831633_4993779264215807308_n.jpg?oh=f15eb174fea7ed208a85605218d47582&oe=59823DE8
Thousands of potential buyers holding their urge since 2013-2016, knowing gov not going to relax CM they cant hold any longer, thus the explosion on 17.
There are a few factor in play here.
1. After 3 years Income has increased.
2. The developer gives Discount.
3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
4. Recent Land sale went up.
5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
6. The interest rate is still low.
7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.
Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.
Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.
https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17904304_10210260091831633_4993779264215807308_n.jpg?oh=f15eb174fea7ed208a85605218d47582&oe=59823DE8
That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.
That waiting is unbearable because only invest in property, only in SG somemore. Such a limited option.
After all the type of so call investment turn bad, the option is very limited.
Our most trusted Bank also into the so call investment.
Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.
SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.
There are a few factor in play here
7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.
Developers have been asking for CM relaxation since 2015 but gov never budged.
SG is very pro business. In closing the recent tax loophole it may sound like punishing the developer, so gov intro a little sweetener to prop up the market sentiment. Just a guess though.
There was never a loophole when QC was created.
http://dollarsandsense.sg/how-property-developers-are-bypassing-the-qualifying-certificate-regulations-and-holding-on-to-unsold-units/
The Red Line was cross by the Wee.
http://www.drea.com.sg/media-and-investor/2017/01/17/a-good-deal-not-just-for-the-wee-family/
If they don't do anything the market will not go according to their wish.
https://www.google.co.in/#q=Developer+ABSD+QC
proud owner
18-04-17, 02:14
With regards to why buy LH when FH in vicinity is selling at same price - my take is that besides newness, quantum also play a part. New units are minted to meet some pricing target & with TDSR in mind.
Banks work with developers at new launches.
Assuming Seaside going at 1600 psf... yet a nearby FH going at 1200 psf ... and banks wont even give it a good / proper valuation..
without a HIGHER valuation... buyers have to fork out more cash... compared to new launches ...
proud owner
18-04-17, 02:19
There are a few factor in play here.
1. After 3 years Income has increased.
2. The developer gives Discount.
3. The developer gives high commission to Agent.
4. Recent Land sale went up.
5. Developer buying en-bloc property (HUDC)
6. The interest rate is still low.
7. Government reduce SSD and remove TDSR for those with a property signal Bottom already reach.
Last but the not the least important, how many 10 years do one have.
Anyone looking at this chart still cannot see, guess no one can help.
https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17904304_10210260091831633_4993779264215807308_n.jpg?oh=f15eb174fea7ed208a85605218d47582&oe=59823DE8
Point 3 not correct....
i believe agents get 1pct for resale...some 1.5 even 2pct.
New launches, agents get 0.5 to 0.7 pct ... even lower...
Only developers who have unsold units and the development reaching the 5yr mark...then they give much higher comm to push sales to avoid the penalty.
proud owner
18-04-17, 02:20
Managed to siam all the CM so far with careful planning. But going forward cannot siam ABSD anymore.
I like your stance!
high 5 ...
i also bought all without kana-ing a single CM...
havent bought anymore since 2011... enough already ...
only looking at commercial now
If what you say is true.It is terrible.I want to leave singapore.
If what you say is true.It is terrible.I want to leave singapore.
Don't sell everything before you leave Singapore, leave at least one property in case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll_SCI5JJMs
PropVestor
20-04-17, 16:22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll_SCI5JJMs
Thanks for sharing.
“新加坡百分之七十是中国人！” That made me sit up a little. Then he corrected "...是华人。”
That distinction may not be that clear for many mainland Chinese who wants to invest in Singapore? How would that affect our property prices if we open up to specifically more mainland Chinese in the coming years?
Much of Singapore lies less than 50 feet above sea level. A third of the island sits around 16 feet above the water — low enough to give planners the jitters. Coastal roads are being raised; a new airport terminal is being built 18 feet above sea level. All the while, the island receives more and more rain each year. “If global temperatures continue to rise,” a government official said last year, “many parts of Singapore could eventually be submerged.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/magazine/how-singapore-is-creating-more-land-for-itself.html?_r=0
Singapore also plans to reclaim its air. “Twelve percent of the island is occupied by roads,” Tan said. “What’s above roads? Nothing! If you put roads under buildings, you free up some land.” Sky bridges and midair concourses are already a part of some public-housing estates. As Wang told me: “In the future, you might see a little town or offices above the expressways. We might create space above our container ports.”
The government has invested $380 million in agricultural projects in Australia, and it is renting land in northeast China to build itself a farm that will measure double the area of the island of Singapore. The farm will take 15 years to complete and will cost $18 billion.
just check out this property from martin mordern
https://goo.gl/93BQQq
anythingwhatever
20-06-17, 19:45
just check out this property from martin mordern
https://goo.gl/93BQQq
2BR 820sqft 1.88M+
Martin Modern is unique indeed, one of the "RARE" 99-years leasehold property and surrounded predominantly by freehold properties, and selling at >S$2292 psf!
2BR 820sqft 1.88M+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.