View Full Version : Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
anythingwhatever
01-06-17, 23:03
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
As discussed here:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/26499-It%92s-not-bottoming-out-It%92s-dead-cat-bounce?highlight=
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
Where are all your Data from.
Looking at the above most cannot hold water.
tonymontana
01-06-17, 23:47
rental already at a low, don't think it can go too much lower. incoming supply pipeline will gradually taper off next few years.
barring any major macroeconomic shocks, to me it's ok to start looking around. maybe a bargain may present itself?
whatever it is, if in doubt (either of the market recovery, or of one's ability to hold) stay away. better to be safe than sorry.
proud owner
02-06-17, 02:20
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
Like you, I cannot find a reason to 100 pct convince me Its Time to Move in...
Look at the new launches, selling like hot cakes
Look at the FH Landed in D10, especially the Semi Ds and Detached houses, activities are definitely picking up. What is it they know that i dont?
Some say, HK has as many cooling measures, and is still going up - TRUE
Coming from a banking background myself, i know banks have started moving their activities from SG to HK. So justifiable that HK is more ex than us
Some say, Citizenship gate will re-open soon.
This gate is never closed, just left ajar. But many feel that it will be open wide soon.
Possible.
Rental continues to fall, or at best, stable for now (at a low level)
Pent up demand? I am not so sure man...
i can only think it is because of the relaxing of "DRAWDOWN ON EQUITIES" that prompted many to make use of it and move into the market again.
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
Economy - Weak, no bright spots. Likely to be weaker before stronger. No fundamental to support the property market optimism
Inflation - Not as benign as the authority wants us to believe
Interest rate - Marginally higher
Property Market - Not ruling out a buoyant private property market with an economy in doldrums (prob 0.6)
Property Rental - Not meaningful returns
Enbloc/GLS Impact - Enbloc Impact is greater, millionaires created. GLS creating an impression of price running away
New Launch - Selling hot at benchmark pricing, creating value purchasing opportunity in CCR
Sales Volume - Higher than last year. Still below the number of new citizens (20,000 py), new households (25,000 py)
TDSR - Foresee to be permanent
CM (ABSD) - Reduce the velocity of buying but does not deter. Revision down ruling out
CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market
Developer - Buy high sell higher. The market setup because of CM (SSD) favours this approach
CM (Developer) - Enhancement ruling out
HDB - 1st Generation buyer still seeing good profit
Sustainability - Sustainable when we see pick up in resale volume, more enbloc
What if HK property crash - Foresee temporary effect
What if Dow crash - All bets are off
what has changed between the purchased of Eco and now ?
check and re-check assumptions.
Stock market has run away prices it is time property market follow too.
Economy - Weak, no bright spots. Likely to be weaker before stronger. No fundamental to support the property market optimism
Inflation - Not as benign as the authority wants us to believe
Interest rate - Marginally higher
Property Market - Not ruling out a buoyant private property market with an economy in doldrums (prob 0.6)
Property Rental - Not meaningful returns
Enbloc/GLS Impact - Enbloc Impact is greater, millionaires created. GLS creating an impression of price running away
New Launch - Selling hot at benchmark pricing, creating value purchasing opportunity in CCR
Sales Volume - Higher than last year. Still below the number of new citizens (20,000 py), new households (25,000 py)
TDSR - Foresee to be permanent
CM (ABSD) - Reduce the velocity of buying but does not deter. Revision down ruling out
CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market
Developer - Buy high sell higher. The market setup because of CM (SSD) favours this approach
CM (Developer) - Enhancement ruling out
HDB - 1st Generation buyer still seeing good profit
Sustainability - Sustainable when we see pick up in resale volume, more enbloc
What if HK property crash - Foresee temporary effect
What if Dow crash - All bets are off
can you elaborate why "CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market"? thanks.
what has changed between the purchased of Eco and now ?
check and re-check assumptions.
I assumed that you are referring to CM (SSD).
For eCO I don't know. According to caveats lodged this year, 7 resales have taken place, maybe 100 put up for sale.
Are you happy with the rate or pace of resale?
And please don't ask me to proof the assumption, haha. It is an assumption, my view. Not a Law in Physics. And of course it can be wrong, I am happy to hear other interpretations.
can you elaborate why "CM (SSD) - Drive buyers to new launch, deter (at the moment) investment purchase in resale market"? thanks.
In making a decision to buy, a (rational) buyer normally should first assess the downside risks. Most downside risks can be measured. He can't do much about the upside potential.
So, he made sure that his downside is protected and hope that he read the market correctly to reap future benefits.
What are the downside risks in buying a property? (In this context, I will leave out the subject of leveraging)
The main one is obviously an assessment of the market condition, "is the market bottoming?" someone has asked. And other risks related to financing (maybe he will be laid off etc), well-being (maybe face with a major illness with huge medical bills etc), the known unknown risks I written earlier. Etc etc...
All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.
The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.
So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.
The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.
Of course I am speaking of a buyer in general and it may not apply to everyone. Especially it seems not to apply to the buyers in this forum, kudos haha.
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
4. Foreign developers into the local market
Your contribution please
Is the overcapacity time bomb in China going to blow soon? If it goes off, 2008 Lemon Bros season again?
Local medium small developers will squeezed & become land poor. :doh:
thanks a lot for your detailed explanation! appreciate it.
In making a decision to buy, a (rational) buyer normally should first assess the downside risks. Most downside risks can be measured. He can't do much about the upside potential.
So, he made sure that his downside is protected and hope that he read the market correctly to reap future benefits.
What are the downside risks in buying a property? (In this context, I will leave out the subject of leveraging)
The main one is obviously an assessment of the market condition, "is the market bottoming?" someone has asked. And other risks related to financing (maybe he will be laid off etc), well-being (maybe face with a major illness with huge medical bills etc), the known unknown risks I written earlier. Etc etc...
All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.
The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.
So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.
The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.
Of course I am speaking of a buyer in general and it may not apply to everyone. Especially it seems not to apply to the buyers in this forum, kudos haha.
Wah very good explaination.
Is the overcapacity time bomb in China going to blow soon? If it goes off, 2008 Lemon Bros season again?
Local medium small developers will squeezed & become land poor. :doh:
They already export their overcapacity oversea.
Lemon Bros create paper call mortgage-backed securities (MBS) whereas the Chinese bring their money out from under their bed.
I assumed that you are referring to CM (SSD).
For eCO I don't know. According to caveats lodged this year, 7 resales have taken place, maybe 100 put up for sale.
Are you happy with the rate or pace of resale?
And please don't ask me to proof the assumption, haha. It is an assumption, my view. Not a Law in Physics. And of course it can be wrong, I am happy to hear other interpretations.
the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)
so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.
not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.
Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?
Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?
Willing buyer, willing seller.
Back in the 90's when I sell my 4 room HDB, HDB valuation S$ 195K, I sell S$285K. The buyer then did another valuation at S$ 235K.
Buyer needs to find ((285-235)+(20%x235))K cash to buy my unit.
A lot of Data showing but how many can see.
think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??
think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??
Someone have to foot the bill for the infrastructure spends, you guess who will pay the Bill.
Question:
Will current high bids have effect on nearby resale condo prices? Let's say new launch is at $1300psf and is 40% higher price than nearby resale condo. Will nearby resale condo price increase too? If yes by how many percent?
try this exercise.
if you are a buyer, how much would you buy it for ?
if you are a seller, how much would you sell it for ?
the actual results will surprise you, it will not differ much from the exercise. all humans are greedy and fearful, only a matter of degree, and since it is a bell curve, will follow the normal distribution. :)
Hi Hopeful...thanks for still remembering that I bought an unit of eCO years back. eCO, basically was a small investment to me. The unit was rather nice and efficient. (yup, it is, just collected the keys early this year). At that time, first two units of properties did not attract ABSD, so just took one first. Shortly after, second unit caught the 7%, miscalculated.
Buying and selling of properties to me, it is just re-balancing of investment portfolio to put money to the best place to work. If I can get 10% on return on others, why should I put in property with limited upside and just net of 1.5%, bear in mind, I still need to hunt for tenants, cleaning up the place, please the tenants...entertain them for all sorts of calls...
the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)
so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.
not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.
I took a look at property guru for WaterTown, it was sold like super hot cakes during CNY that year, running at $1,600 to $1,800 psf..now all underwater. And j gateway asking at $1,800 to $1,900, do you think there would be takers?
The old birds here seeing through at least 2-4 property cycles and learnt hard. To buy or not is individual decision....
tonymontana
02-06-17, 18:47
All these can happen within the SSD window, used to be 4 years now improved to 3 years. If he assessed the market condition wrongly, not a disaster as long as there is provisions set aside. But other risks are pretty much beyond his control, and sometimes expectation.
The SSD penalty is huge. And don't forget in buying the property for investment, he has paid substantial ABSD earlier. There are cases/records of people having to pay the SSD, even for within the 1st year of purchase. So, the threat of the overhanging penalty is real.
So, what will he do? To mitigate the downside risks he will opt to buy new launch. Naturally.
The time period required to build the project coincides with the SSD window, more importantly the progressive outlays are easier until TOP etc.
.
I don't get "mitigate downside by buying new". New launches are priced at a premium (so far I've seen). Those that are priced at a seeming bargain to current resale units on the market are the worst units in the development.
I would buy old. I find there is better value in older developments.
As for the SSD, it is a move to reduce the disincentive when selling. One is penalized less if one needs to sell (for whatever reason). One can say this encourages investors to step in to the market, but I find this a somewhat tenuous link.
laguna, buying a property is actually simple in theory, it is the execution that is so difficult :)
timing and location, of the 2, timing is the more important one
generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)
when people buy new launches, what they are buying is hopes and dreams. nothing is set in stone, the sky is the limit for capital appreciation ( in their mind)
when people buy resale, what they are buying is reality. rental income and expenses are known quantity.
people being what they are, they prefer to imagine they are property experts, making millions in capital gains.
is it a wonder they prefer new launches as compared to resales?
tonymontana
02-06-17, 18:52
the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)
so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.
not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.
It was really interesting and entertaining to read through the jgateway thread , and to actually see how predictions have panned out today.
tonymontana
02-06-17, 18:56
think more land will be released in H2 GLS to help bring down land prices. Seems like HK / China Developers are very hungry for land, but local developers are still relatively quiet. Dunno which party is correct??
I should certainly hope not given that we are now in an oversupply of upcoming new homes, especially this year. Hopefully URA keeps a tight and controlled rein, even though they may feel like striking while the iron is hot.
Normally for the past few cycles if u see stock market up property also up. But this one is suppressed by CMs...
It was really interesting and entertaining to read through the jgateway thread , and to actually see how predictions have panned out today.
what was it panned out today?
Those people been to this forum since the 2000s, will know, this forum is not as active as those days
Those people been to this forum since the 2000s, will know, this forum is not as active as those days
Last time people buy into private property and cars will discuss until the cows come home then they decide. That was a time when information was not readily available and one can only develop a full picture with good discussions. That frequency has dropped a lot.
Nowadays, info is so readily available that one can draw their own opinions and conclusions after reading tons of reviews, masterplans etc which are all available within a few clicks.
Nobody (current potential buyers) really needs or wants to discuss too much detail and reveal too much privacy in fact.
I don't get "mitigate downside by buying new". New launches are priced at a premium (so far I've seen). Those that are priced at a seeming bargain to current resale units on the market are the worst units in the development.
I would buy old. I find there is better value in older developments.
As for the SSD, it is a move to reduce the disincentive when selling. One is penalized less if one needs to sell (for whatever reason). One can say this encourages investors to step in to the market, but I find this a somewhat tenuous link.
Indeed.
Buying new launch is mitigating the downside risk, however in buying new at premium invalidated this objective.
This is the gist of the 'debate' with Kelonguni earlier, when I highlighted this peculiarity.
tonymontana
02-06-17, 22:33
Last time people buy into private property and cars will discuss until the cows come home then they decide. That was a time when information was not readily available and one can only develop a full picture with good discussions. That frequency has dropped a lot.
Nowadays, info is so readily available that one can draw their own opinions and conclusions after reading tons of reviews, masterplans etc which are all available within a few clicks.
Nobody (current potential buyers) really needs or wants to discuss too much detail and reveal too much privacy in fact.
Just means market isn't really hot yet. as long as it doesn't keep dropping too much i won't be too worried.
tonymontana
02-06-17, 22:35
what was it panned out today?
it didn't pan out. :p nuff said.
tonymontana
02-06-17, 22:37
Indeed.
Buying new launch is mitigating the downside risk, however in buying new at premium invalidated this objective.
This is the gist of the 'debate' with Kelonguni earlier, when I highlighted this peculiarity.
Oh i c. Were they ever new launches selling at discount to market? I mean for same locations. If it's discount but some ulu yet-t0-develop place, it's still better to buy older at better, established locations
it didn't pan out. :p nuff said.
Now I recalled, Ringo33 said the J Gateway price would run away...but did not come true
Is it correct?
Oh i c. Were they ever new launches selling at discount to market? I mean for same locations. If it's discount but some ulu yet-t0-develop place, it's still better to buy older at better, established locations
Usually new launch at a reasonable premium but not this kind of premium we are seeing today.
We should be aware that the SUPER premium is driven by developers fighting all over themselves for the piece of land.
It is simple rule...
Land Cost + Construction Cost + Taxes to Govt + Interest + Profit = Selling Price.
So, the only thing to cut is to cut cost in construction rather than profit....After they collects all the money...close shop
Next year land sales from Tengah. Look out for price of land sales.
the question was directed at Laguna. in a televised interview and widely reported in the news, she gave reasons for getting eCo.
it seems that her reasons was kind of off. and if memory served me right, sometime later, she posted she disposed off 1 unit (i dont know whether it is eCo or some other unit)
so if her assumptions were kind of off then, what about now?
that's why asked her to check and re-check her assumptions.
not sure how long you have been lurking before you joined, back then the hot topics were j gateway (king of OCR) and punggol watertown (king of punggol), which set OCR psf records. now that j gateway has TOP, but so quiet, no ringo33 nor his detractors to liven up.
Oops ...
I am 'brand new' here, haha.
Price cannot be argued, depending only market condition it is either the buyer or seller who says "take it or leave it".
The developers have taken over, saying to the buyers "take it or leave it"?
generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)
Good one.
Got a best deal when buying in wrong time, still a bad deal.
Worst deal when buying in right time, still a good deal :)
Oops ...
I am 'brand new' here, haha.
Price cannot be argued, depending only market condition it is either the buyer or seller who says "take it or leave it".
The developers have taken over, saying to the buyers "take it or leave it"?
Congratulations for discovering real gems here. Am referring to those gurus who have contributed in this forum when it was much livelier. Made a very impt decision some 7-8 years back after reading the discussions and seeking advice here so able to sit on a modest rental and capital appreciation.. not sky high but thankfully sufficient. Something that is still possible in time to come but as someone pointed out
"good timing, bad location" - can still make some or breakeven (non risky for time being)
"good location, bad timing", - try to lose less or be patient to wait for next higher cycle (need to take another risk)
"good location, good timing", - should maximise when the iron is hot (no risk other than Black Swan event or "GREED" overtaking Prudence is also a very high risk)
"bad location, bad timing" - minimise loss, lesson learn and let humility take over, may still be possible to make a comeback and definitely wiser
Hope to see opinions and discussions.
For a start, noticed that the market has changed or will change with
1. abundance of ready data
2. entry of millenials
3. tech disruptions like AirBnB, UBER, Deliveroo,
4. Empty Malls in Central & Crowded Malls in heartland?
5. Big Panda expansion up north esp. JB, One Belt initiative
6. Govt intervention (regression & moderation in price 2013-2017 after acceleration in price 2010-2013, 4 years gain, 4 years pause)
my 2 cents
You have to ask yourself "can I trust this market".
In any market, once it gets emotional you will find mis-pricing taking hold. The price overshoots through either the upside or the downside. Right now, maybe the developers are getting emotional, maybe they are seeing something that we don't know and if so what is it?
The foreign developers are very bullish, and if local developers join the fray, hoseh liao. This is basically what vip has written about, in asking"are local developers forced to walk a tightrope".
You see, all producers of goods want to lower the cost of goods. But here we are seeing producers fighting to increase the cost of goods. I don't think the land is tremendously undervalued, maybe there are small pockets of land here and there but not wholesale.
And don't forget that it is the buyers who are paying the price, the developers do not hold on to the finished products. Indeed, they can't due to QC.
Right now, I will say what we are seeing is the impact of China exporting its production, the same objective of OBOR etc.
If buyers start losing their heads and get emotional, for me I want to be able to step away and jiak my popcorn.
Amber Woods
03-06-17, 11:21
Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.
Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)
This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.
walkthetiger
03-06-17, 13:33
Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.
Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)
This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.
The recent Govt tweaks property cooling measures for SSD and TDSR tickled some false hope of these people, it will cool off eventually and go back to same sentiment before the tweaks. It's a long winter ahead, everything is just beginning.
tonymontana
03-06-17, 14:50
...the J Gateway price would run away...but did not come true
Is it correct?
at 800k for a 474 sft unit in jurong and 99LH somemore, difficult to earn. you can check the rental, already TOP.
The recent Govt tweaks property cooling measures for SSD and TDSR tickled some false hope of these people, it will cool off eventually and go back to same sentiment before the tweaks. It's a long winter ahead, everything is just beginning.
If you need to go toilet and someone tell you next stop coming soon and after 3 years the stop is still coming soon, will you go or will you wait for the next stop.
If you know all the CMs, the tweaks is nothing. Only release some water to prevent the Dam overflow.
at 800k for a 474 sft unit in jurong and 99LH somemore, difficult to earn. you can check the rental, already TOP.
Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf :very_drunk: and that's phase 1 only
tonymontana
03-06-17, 17:05
Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf :very_drunk: and that's phase 1 only
yes, to me that is also very premium pricing for that location. can buy older FH in D9 already. But hey! I'm not complaining. Huat ah
We shall see 6 months latet, how is the take up rate of GLS at Stirling Road, and early next year, the two HUDc
Actually very simple no need to think too hard. When interest rate hit 3.5% some crucial cooling measures will be removed.
Some of the units at Park Place residences also hit $2,000 psf :very_drunk: and that's phase 1 only
MARTIN PLACE RESIDENCES
Condominium 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1,200,000 - 592 Strata 01 to 05 2,027 Sep-16
PARK PLACE RESIDENCES AT PLQ
Apartment 14 RCR 99 years leasehold New Sale 1,309,999 - 678 Strata 06 to 10 1,932 Mar-17
Didn't know that PPR is Apartment.
tonymontana
03-06-17, 18:18
MARTIN PLACE RESIDENCES
Condominium 09 CCR Freehold Resale 1,200,000 - 592 Strata 01 to 05 2,027 Sep-16
PARK PLACE RESIDENCES AT PLQ
Apartment 14 RCR 99 years leasehold New Sale 1,309,999 - 678 Strata 06 to 10 1,932 Mar-17
Didn't know that PPR is Apartment.
to me is a no brainer if choice is between the two only i'd get the D9 FH condo.
to me is a no brainer if choice is between the two only i'd get the D9 FH condo.
If we use 635 sqf as the average, the premium of FH over LH is 4.9%.
But one is CCR9 and the other RCR14.
walkthetiger
03-06-17, 21:53
Actually very simple no need to think too hard. When interest rate hit 3.5% some crucial cooling measures will be removed.
When that happen, cash becomes King, pay full in cash buying cheaply.. haha..
In 6 - 9 months time, we would have a very good picture as to the take-up rates of these enbloc and GLS properties as to whether there is a real demand. And also, how good is the economy would be clearer as well. US is talking 3 more rate hikes this year.
Unit size would be very small, 3 bedrooms around 800sf, lots of 2 and 1 bedders as affordability rather than liveability is more important for developers to sell.
Finally, we are beginning to read more diverse views of the market with more savvy investors and veterans participating in this forum.
Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
generally
get timing right, wrong location, only limit the gains (you still make money.)
get timing wrong, right location, only limit the losses (you still lose money.)
This has to be the wisest advice to any potential investors looking to buy their first investment property. Then again, when emotion rules, the decision to buy is always not so straight forward.
You go to attend a course in the university, and there are 100 students attending.
Every student has the same course material, the same teacher teaching. Some students will pay close attention to what is being taught, and in their own time they do further research related to the course subject. And so, at the end of the semester they will score the As. Some students will clown around not paying attention, wasting their time and in the end they will score the Fs. The rest is genuinely working hard but just unable to grasp what is being taught completely and they will score the Bs and Cs.
This is statistic, the normal distribution principle. Same course material, same teacher.
Now, consider this forum as the class room, those with experience and knowledge to post and share, questions being raised and addressed etc.
What is the result?
The normal distribution principle still applies. There will be the few that will score the As, and the few that score Fs with the rest in between.
Let's not take ourselves too seriously to think what is said in this forum can move this market. Look, we are talking about about 1.3 mil units of residential properties, I don't know maybe 700 k property owners. Even if all of them read this forum, take what is posted seriously enough to make their buy and sell decision, the normal distribution still applies. There will be the winners, and there will still be the losers.
Why?
Property investment is leveraged, the leverage ratio is the highest at 20% for the 1st property (which is not an investment but a consumption, to be accurate).
Like any other investment instruments using leverage, firstly the timing of entry and exit decides if a trade is successful, whether it is profitable. This is why the government has imposed TDSR, the government looked at the situation and basically said "it seems to me that you don't know the risk of leveraging so let me help you decide the leverage ratio to apply when you buy the 2nd, 3rd property alright? And before you can go to make you think harder, please pay for the entry ticket ok? (ABSD)". Secondly, money management is a critical successful factor; for example, you have $300 k and the entire sum is used for the 20% minimal required to finance the purchase, is this good money management?
Timing (some called this being savvy), money management skill cannot be taught. You can teach but he/she either gets it or don't. Finish. It's all about aptitude.
So, you should want to use this forum to gain an edge over the next investors (they are not your competitors, you are your own competitor), get them talking to speak their minds; why are you buying, what are you buying, the why nots.
Free tuition leh.
If you are able to buy after all the CMs, you are good to buy.
If you already buy and cannot buy anymore and don't need the money to depreciate in the Bank you don't need to sell.
If you are not able to buy, learn from others success and mistake, save your money and get ready to buy when you can.
http://www.executivecondos.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/MAS-LTV-Chart.jpg
http://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2013/10/27/11273372/TDSR.JPG
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 00:58
If you are able to buy after all the CMs, you are good to buy.
If you already buy and cannot buy anymore and don't need the money to depreciate in the Bank you don't need to sell.
If you are not able to buy, learn from others success and mistake, save your money and get ready to buy when you can.
http://www.executivecondos.com.sg/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/MAS-LTV-Chart.jpg
http://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2013/10/27/11273372/TDSR.JPG
U miss out another group, weak holding power but need to sell to cut loss, end getting more choked.
U miss out another group, weak holding power but need to sell to cut loss, end getting more choked.
There are some who can still hold on to the property, it depends on their will.
I know a few who survive the downturn in 1997.
Mostly should have sold by now and replaced by strong buyers?
Can place deposit and clear TDSR but still need to sell to cut loss, they deserve to have strong buyers take over...
U miss out another group, weak holding power but need to sell to cut loss, end getting more choked.
"Buy la, the world is printing money what. The dam is leaking liao la"
This has to the most often repeated calling heard in this forum today, it actual borders on hysterical.
If the markets crash tomorrow, we can be assured a varied tune being sung.
"Buy la, property price has crashed more than 20% already in OCR. Cheap, cheap. Don't worry, the governments will remove the CMs and print MOAR money to support one."
But this is not a personal attack. It is just too funny to me.
He genuinely deserved our respects, because he is a very successful property investor also. He has shown the best property investment record published in this forum in the Southbank purchase. (I am sure there are many other records but people prefer to keep them in private)
Are we not more interested why he bought Southbank then? Surely it was not due to luck?
So please, buy a property by all means but buy only when you see value.
That is his tune. My tune is, if one remains unconvinced after reading all the evidence, please remain sitting out. Continue to rent lah, miss the diminishing fire sales, wait for interest rates to rise, wait for major events while their cash grows in power lah. Let the enblockers take over buyers roles as they "renew" their leases or snap up the top end properties. When the dust settles, we shall see who gets the last laugh.
"Buy la, the world is printing money what. The dam is leaking liao la"
This has to the most often repeated calling heard in this forum today, it actual borders on hysterical.
If the markets crash tomorrow, we can be assured a varied tune being sung.
"Buy la, property price has crashed more than 20% already in OCR. Cheap, cheap. Don't worry, the governments will remove the CMs and print MOAR money to support one."
But this is not a personal attack. It is just too funny to me.
He genuinely deserved our respects, because he is a very successful property investor also. He has shown the best property investment record published in this forum in the Southbank purchase. (I am sure there are many other records but people prefer to keep them in private)
Are we not more interested why he bought Southbank then? Surely it was not due to luck?
So please, buy a property by all means but buy only when you see value.
That is his tune. My tune is, if one remains unconvinced after reading all the evidence, please remain sitting out. Continue to rent lah, miss the diminishing fire sales, wait for interest rates to rise, wait for major events while their cash grows in power lah. Let the enblockers take over buyers roles as they "renew" their leases or snap up the top end properties. When the dust settles, we shall see who gets the last laugh.
I don't disagree with these, ahaha.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 08:11
"Buy la, the world is printing money what. The dam is leaking liao la"
This has to the most often repeated calling heard in this forum today, it actual borders on hysterical.
If the markets crash tomorrow, we can be assured a varied tune being sung.
"Buy la, property price has crashed more than 20% already in OCR. Cheap, cheap. Don't worry, the governments will remove the CMs and print MOAR money to support one."
But this is not a personal attack. It is just too funny to me.
He genuinely deserved our respects, because he is a very successful property investor also. He has shown the best property investment record published in this forum in the Southbank purchase. (I am sure there are many other records but people prefer to keep them in private)
Are we not more interested why he bought Southbank then? Surely it was not due to luck?
So please, buy a property by all means but buy only when you see value.
Mr A always talked about his Southbank purchase bought during the market low and how he benefited from his HDB flat via the Goh Chok Tong's asset enhancement scheme. Whether it was pure luck or due to his buying low or "got money just buy" strategy, he was helped by the Goh's policy.
He still live in the fantasy of the Goh's era. Asset enhancement policy was dead after Khaw took over as MND Minister in 2011. He slowly and gradually managed a soft landing and it is now clear when Minister Wong confirmed that as your lease runs down, your HDB flat will eventually becomes zero in value.
Who will be the new renters to soak up the upcoming & current supply now? What are the new jobs created & will we need more or less manpower needed moving forward?
Mr A always talked about his Southbank purchase bought during the market low and how he benefited from his HDB flat via the Goh Chok Tong's asset enhancement scheme. Whether it was pure luck or due to his buying low or "got money just buy" strategy, he was helped by the Goh's policy.
For so many years, he has been talking about his Southbank..one and only one mentioned.
Mr A always talked about his Southbank purchase bought during the market low and how he benefited from his HDB flat via the Goh Chok Tong's asset enhancement scheme. Whether it was pure luck or due to his buying low or "got money just buy" strategy, he was helped by the Goh's policy.
He still live in the fantasy of the Goh's era. Asset enhancement policy was dead after Khaw took over as MND Minister in 2011. He slowly and gradually managed a soft landing and it is now clear when Minister Wong confirmed that as your lease runs down, your HDB flat will eventually becomes zero in value.
I think we know that Asset Enhancement policy helped.
I was asking about then, why Southbank of all the choices?
Why not Northbank? Just kidding.
Thinking of going to view showflats today, look at the choices..
http://www.sgpnewlaunches.com/?gclid=CjwKEAjwvMnJBRCO2NSu-Puc6AUSJAAf-OSU6d6Geyuw6vUDHaF1VxZzBaNxjo6rCu8RDgcpPrPgGhoCVBPw_wcB
The market will tell you six - nine months later, whether the new launches on these newly acquired GLS and Enbloc will take off.
For so many years, he has been talking about his Southbank..one and only one mentioned.
He has another one.
He has another one.
Ya...i forgot he needs to have one to stay
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 08:32
He has another one.
He bought a landed during the high of 2011. That is why he has to make sure that the market will not crash on him.
Several thousand last generation large units enblocced means more than the same amount of tenants and buyers coming back into the market. With that kind of profits, one can only imagine what can be achieved as a couple or a multi-generation unit. The enbloc fever is unlikely to subside soon, many old developments needing renewal.
I have been calling for enbloc to revive market since late 2015 or 2016 when Normanton Park was put on sale. But several other more manageably sized development pipped it. It's a wonderful time to be first time buyers again, congrats!
Please continue to wait for more exciting news.
Who will be the new renters to soak up the upcoming & current supply now? What are the new jobs created & will we need more or less manpower needed moving forward?
Several thousand last generation large units enblocced means more than the same amount of tenants and buyers coming back into the market. With that kind of profits, one can only imagine what can be achieved as a couple or a multi-generation unit. The enbloc fever is unlikely to subside soon, many old developments needing renewal.
I have been calling for enbloc to revive market since late 2015 or 2016 when Normanton Park was put on sale. But several other more manageably sized development pipped it. It's a wonderful time to be first time buyers again, congrats!
Please continue to wait for more exciting news.
Let me share my experience...My close friend, 4 units tenants not going to renew this year...all going back. For me...4 broke leases last year...all out of jobs and going back. This year....3 up for renewal...one just left...And it takes much longer to look for tenants with much lower asking.
In other words, there is no One-for-One replacement. My friend's property, just enbloc...going to stay with children.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 09:01
Several thousand last generation large units enblocced means more than the same amount of tenants and buyers coming back into the market. With that kind of profits, one can only imagine what can be achieved as a couple or a multi-generation unit. The enbloc fever is unlikely to subside soon, many old developments needing renewal.
I have been calling for enbloc to revive market since late 2015 or 2016 when Normanton Park was put on sale. But several other more manageably sized development pipped it. It's a wonderful time to be first time buyers again, congrats!
Please continue to wait for more exciting news.
Mr K is just as interesting as Mr A.
Mr A keeps telling people "got money just buy" and how many 10 years you had.
Mr K keeps making assumptions from en bloc plot ratios to en bloc owners filling up the gap.
As someone who benefited from en bloc sale and knowing what my former neighours bought as replacement, Mr K assumptions hold no water.
In older developments, about 60% are owner occupied. Only 60% needs to buy replacement units. These owners will not buy current new and compact size unit. They will go for older and bigger resale units bearing in mind that only 60% of the owners will be actively in the market looking for replacement. A good portion of these owners will not buy replacement units as they have the option of staying with their grown up children. A good portion will buy HDB resale flats.
For the remaining 40% investors, they have the option of using the money to buy other investment instrument like bonds and wait for the opportunity to buy another investment unit. They are in no hurry to buy.
Bearing in mind that the number of new units being built on the land bought by developer from and en bloc sale is at least 50% more due to maximizing the plot ratio and more compact size units.
So the effect of en bloc owners filling the market is not significant at all.
Let me share my experience...My close friend, 4 units tenants not going to renew this year...all going back. For me...4 broke leases last year...all out of jobs and going back. This year....3 up for renewal...one just left...And it takes much longer to look for tenants with much lower asking.
In other words, there is no One-for-One replacement. My friend's property, just enbloc...going to stay with children.
Property pool is deep and wide. Everybody's experience is different. Some people in shallow water, some in deep water. We just have to make sure we are in the deep part where there are most liquid. To be fair...other investments and businesses outside property investment ....are not faring too well neither.
Who will be the new renters to soak up the upcoming & current supply now? What are the new jobs created & will we need more or less manpower needed moving forward?
Not sure how many of us followed the impact of Robotics.
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/dialogue/actemp/downloads/publications/2016/asean_in_transf_2016_r1_techn.pdf
I am damn worried about it, but then I am naturally cautious of everything haha.
That was the previous model before the series of cooling measures.
The 8-9 years of cooling measures have created huge pent up demand all around. People who want to buy more or buy for their children but hindered in ability (TDSR) and/or willingness (ABSD).
Releasing huge liquidity and relieving joint owners of first or second property ownership will create a huge wave.
Don't believe? Just wait lor. I am not the sort who will bug people to buy. Not an agent as well. Just don't complain later that the signs were not obvious enough.
Mr K is just as interesting as Mr A.
Mr A keeps telling people "got money just buy" and how many 10 years you had.
Mr K keeps making assumptions from en bloc plot ratios to en bloc owners filling up the gap.
As someone who benefited from en bloc sale and knowing what my former neighours bought as replacement, Mr K assumptions hold no water.
In older developments, about 60% are owner occupied. Only 60% needs to buy replacement units. These owners will not buy current new and compact size unit. They will go for older and bigger resale units bearing in mind that only 60% of the owners will be actively in the market looking for replacement. A good portion of these owners will not buy replacement units as they have the option of staying with their grown up children. A good portion will buy HDB resale flats.
For the remaining 40% investors, they have the option of using the money to buy other investment instrument like bonds and wait for the opportunity to buy another investment unit. They are in no hurry to buy.
Bearing in mind that the number of new units being built on the land bought by developer from and en bloc sale is at least 50% more due to maximizing the plot ratio and more compact size units.
So the effect of en bloc owners filling the market is not significant at all.
challenger
04-06-17, 11:10
Let me share my experience...My close friend, 4 units tenants not going to renew this year...all going back. For me...4 broke leases last year...all out of jobs and going back. This year....3 up for renewal...one just left...And it takes much longer to look for tenants with much lower asking.
In other words, there is no One-for-One replacement. My friend's property, just enbloc...going to stay with children.
The rental market is currently brutal. 2.5 months to find tenant. I don't think it will recover so soon.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 11:15
That was the previous model before the series of cooling measures.
The 8-9 years of cooling measures have created huge pent up demand all around. People who want to buy more or buy for their children but hindered in ability (TDSR) and/or willingness (ABSD).
Releasing huge liquidity and relieving joint owners of first or second property ownership will create a huge wave.
Don't believe? Just wait lor. I am not the sort who will bug people to buy. Not an agent as well. Just don't complain later that the signs were not obvious enough.
Here he was again ....... making assumption one after another.
Mr K is just as interesting as Mr A.
Mr A keeps telling people "got money just buy" and how many 10 years you had.
Mr K keeps making assumptions from en bloc plot ratios to en bloc owners filling up the gap.
As someone who benefited from en bloc sale and knowing what my former neighours bought as replacement, Mr K assumptions hold no water.
In older developments, about 60% are owner occupied. Only 60% needs to buy replacement units. These owners will not buy current new and compact size unit. They will go for older and bigger resale units bearing in mind that only 60% of the owners will be actively in the market looking for replacement. A good portion of these owners will not buy replacement units as they have the option of staying with their grown up children. A good portion will buy HDB resale flats.
For the remaining 40% investors, they have the option of using the money to buy other investment instrument like bonds and wait for the opportunity to buy another investment unit. They are in no hurry to buy.
Bearing in mind that the number of new units being built on the land bought by developer from and en bloc sale is at least 50% more due to maximizing the plot ratio and more compact size units.
So the effect of en bloc owners filling the market is not significant at all.
I happen to have a friend who sold his HUDC to Far East and he is very sad after selling.
Now a lot of happy seller, don't know what will happen only Time can tell.
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 11:21
at 800k for a 474 sft unit in jurong and 99LH somemore, difficult to earn. you can check the rental, already TOP.
"ALL of the 738 units at 99-year leasehold J Gateway were snapped up at the development's preview yesterday, as buyers sought apartments at the first condominium to be launched near Jurong East MRT station in 10 years.The robust sales came right before the Monetary Authority of Singapore's announcement yesterday evening that tightened rules for property loans, which take effect today."
http://www.condosingapore.com/forums/showthread.php/18113-New-Cooling-Measures
A reminder... rental 1.8k lowest
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 11:22
I happen to have a friend who sold his HUDC to Far East and he is very sad after selling.
Now a lot of happy seller, don't know what will happen only Time can tell.
I also felt sad after selling en bloc because I liked my former place so much. I also felt happy because I did have many options to do with the money.
Mr A just refuses to accept the reality.
For so many years, he has been talking about his Southbank..one and only one mentioned.
Southbank is God given, bought in Jun 2006 was thinking of staying then rent out my HDB or sell.
Lots of people bad mouth about Southbank when it launch but I think it is good because I very lazy don't like to go too far for my food and necessity.
Spend a lot of time read about money printing because don't understand how 535000 can become 1550000 in 4 years.
So after 1 year bought another for self-stay. Thinking of changing my HDB to FH property but TDSR stop my game plan.
Got another 30 years to live, how many 10 years do you have.
I was told Tampines Court launches in July $960m for 560 units
Spend a lot of time read about money printing because don't understand how 535000 can become 1550000 in 4 years.
Till you can prove, I doubt you can triple this in 4 years as I bought a few around that time in much better location
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 11:49
Spend a lot of time read about money printing because don't understand how 535000 can become 1550000 in 4 years.
There are indeed one unit i recall sold at 535k during late Jul 06. You sure it still worth 1.5 now?
In my previous en bloc, most of my neighbors downgraded as they think markets will come down. Some even rent. Luckily for me being a lazy person don't like to move here and there, upgraded. Just sold my place after staying for 10 years for free and make another pot. Upgrading to another place.
For my ex neighbors who over calculated and think too much, they have not make much move because I believe they can't get over it for missing the boat. (Sound familiar, like some here) As for me, I have make 2 folds by going all out leverage to the max like Mr A.
Now rewinding my bonds and equity position like Laguna to build up my limited bullets being a single income earner. My portfolio is only a fraction compared to Laguna being an investment guru.
For me, I prefer to stay vested instead of camping around for so many years and hoping market to crash. Crash also good,, don't crash also good.
Till you can prove, I doubt you can triple this in 4 years as I bought a few around that time in much better location
Unlike Federal Reserve, MAS has no interest rate policy.
It targets inflation via foreign exchange mechanism. There will be leakages as some one has written earlier.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 12:43
In my previous en bloc, most of my neighbors downgraded as they think markets will come down. Some even rent. Luckily for me being a lazy person don't like to move here and there, upgraded. Just sold my place after staying for 10 years for free and make another pot. Upgrading to another place.
For my ex neighbors who over calculated and think too much, they have not make much move because I believe they can't get over it for missing the boat. (Sound familiar, like some here) As for me, I have make 2 folds by going all out leverage to the max like Mr A.
Now rewinding my bonds and equity position like Laguna to build up my limited bullets being a single income earner. My portfolio is only a fraction compared to Laguna being an investment guru.
For me, I prefer to stay vested instead of camping around for so many years and hoping market to crash. Crash also good,, don't crash also good.
Good to share!
One of my neighbour bought a unit in my estate immediately after a collective sale in 1997 (before the financial crisis). He stay here until the estate went en bloc again and he bought another one near by and still happily staying there. He was lucky because both en bloc happen before GCT's asset enhancement policy.
Another neighbour (a investor) bought a replacement unit (for rental) immediately after en bloc to continue to receive rental. She was smart, she bought a cheaper unit and rented out higher price and pocket the cash difference for other investment.
So again timing is important even for en bloc sale. If your en bloc happen before 2011 or earlier, you had opportunity to ride the wave and stay invested. However, if en bloc happen after 2011, the equation is no longer that simple.
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 12:58
There are indeed one unit i recall sold at 535k during late Jul 06. You sure it still worth 1.5 now?
Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..
Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..
I meant it when saying it the best record, it was a feat!
Look at the historical, Southbank price rallied almost from the get-go, punched through $1,000 psf before GFC. In other words, when money-printing was exclusively a Japanese thing.
Genuinely want to know his insight, but he said God's will. That worked too I guess.
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 14:23
I meant it when saying it the best record, it was a feat!
Look at the historical, Southbank price rallied almost from the get-go, punched through $1,000 psf before GFC. In other words, when money-printing was exclusively a Japanese thing.
Genuinely want to know his insight, but he said God's will. That worked too I guess.
I always teach my children to be a smart property investor, timing is absolute. Always learnt to read markert properly first. Never buy and buy and buy, or doubling up the bet like a gambler in casino.
Which one of us do not make any assumptions in our postings?
Rental low, so prices will come down. Not assumption?
Still have supply, so prices will come down. Not assumption?
Interest rates will go up, so owners will fire sale. Not assumption?
Every statement we put out here contains assumptions. It's just whose assumptions are more reflective of reality.
Good day my friend.
Here he was again ....... making assumption one after another.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 16:11
Which one of us do not make any assumptions in our postings?
Rental low, so prices will come down. Not assumption?
Still have supply, so prices will come down. Not assumption?
Interest rates will go up, so owners will fire sale. Not assumption?
Every statement we put out here contains assumptions. It's just whose assumptions are more reflective of reality.
Good day my friend.
Unfortunately, those assumptions you made were mostly not able to hold.
The price down 4 years still down or down 4 years reach bottom assumptions will soon be subjected to test and verifications. Enbloc effect is mild or huge also can be tested and verified. Then we will know whose assumptions are more reflective. Please continue to wait.
Unfortunately, those assumptions you made were mostly not able to hold.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 16:49
The price down 4 years still down or down 4 years reach bottom assumptions will soon be subjected to test and verifications. Enbloc effect is mild or huge also can be tested and verified. Then we will know whose assumptions are more reflective. Please continue to wait.
There you are again, just like Mr A.
There you are again, just like Mr A.
I think it is perfectly fine.
Some investors are optimism bias in nature, some pessimism bias. Like me I am pessimism bias, looking at downside risk first and last, but this doesn't stop me looking for bargain.
I remember distinctly 2013 and 2014 also advocating that broadly prices will continue to fall and unless there are strong reasons, one should sit it out.
So no, I am not of the same view as Arcachon and I do roughly gauge what I am interested in with comparative choices and time points.
But to think that one can get the lowest deal at the lowest time point is just wishful thinking. Based on most developments surveyed, prices have already moved up. It's just that somehow the housing price indices did not capture it.
If you feel so fervently that my assumptions are wrong and I did not sense it accurately, there is only one way to be sure. I can only wish you the best.
There you are again, just like Mr A.
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 18:34
I remember distinctly 2013 and 2014 also advocating that broadly prices will continue to fall and unless there are strong reasons, one should sit it out.
So no, I am not of the same view as Arcachon and I do roughly gauge what I am interested in with comparative choices and time points.
But to think that one can get the lowest deal at the lowest time point is just wishful thinking. Based on most developments surveyed, prices have already moved up. It's just that somehow the housing price indices did not capture it.
If you feel so fervently that my assumptions are wrong and I did not sense it accurately, there is only one way to be sure. I can only wish you the best.
Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.
Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.
Resales prices have been on the uptrend for close to half year based on srx. Bro bargain hunter has also been reporting a much lower number of such actual transactions of late, not to mention profitable transactions that he does not monitor.
Based on the background sales of private properties pre CMs and current growing sales, we can already see the impact of pent up demand on transaction volume. Based on URA.
Increased enbloc sales remove rental units and supply for old resales from the market, instead injecting liquidity into primarily a group of owners who have benefited from holding units for 20-40 years.
These are not assumptions - they are real data.
Base on what tell u so? Hope it is not depending on agents observation. Maybe the very few bergain hunters knocking too many buyers doors, so causing the noises, giving the false hope.
He is very good when staying within the boundary of data analysis. Nothing saying the presumptions are inaccurate. Presumptions being presumption, they are by nature very hard to prove based on current data so are going to attract debate.
BH's reporting is one should look forward to (I do); very objective and sound interpretation.
To those monitoring CCR, the signs there are promising.
https://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/content/signs-recovery-high-end-condo-segment
walkthetiger
04-06-17, 19:35
Resales prices have been on the uptrend for close to half year based on srx. Bro bargain hunter has also been reporting a much lower number of such actual transactions of late, not to mention profitable transactions that he does not monitor.
Based on the background sales of private properties pre CMs and current growing sales, we can already see the impact of pent up demand on transaction volume. Based on URA.
Increased enbloc sales remove rental units and supply for old resales from the market, instead injecting liquidity into primarily a group of owners who have benefited from holding units for 20-40 years.
These are not assumptions - they are real data.
It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.
It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.
https://www.srx.com.sg/research/36522/private-resale-non-landed-prices-remain-unchanged-in-april-volume-drops-210
Sustainable or not I am not sure. But since last year and this year budget, Govt relax TDSR for refinancing, the movements have generally been positive. And now the enbloc sales are just going to add on to those movements.
tonymontana
04-06-17, 21:32
https://www.srx.com.sg/research/36522/private-resale-non-landed-prices-remain-unchanged-in-april-volume-drops-210
Sustainable or not I am not sure. But since last year and this year budget, Govt relax TDSR for refinancing, the movements have generally been positive. And now the enbloc sales are just going to add on to those movements.
from what i observe from a cursory view of the market, resale prices haven't gone up, but asking prices have gone up. Also I seem to see more people looking around for bargains.
to anyone asking me to substantiate, let me answer you now: "Sorry, I don't have data." Purely anecdotal.
As for land banking and enbloc, it's getting hot right now. same for new launch. market definitely feels a lot more positive compared to the past 2-3 years.
Amber Woods
04-06-17, 22:13
It is only your assumption these are real figures of sustainable uptrend.
Cms still watertight.
Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.
Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.
Enbloc success also have a stimulatory effect on sellers asking prices and buyers willingness to commit.
Especially with reduced SSD holding period.
It's a common sense assumption.
URA index for non landed was actually flat for this quarter.
Overall negative because of landed prices dropping.
We all make assumptions. Assumptions allow predictions. When read together with data, it can make for a powerful prediction reflective of market conditions. Anyway, it's good for you to continue to wait if you really don't buy in.
Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.
Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/publications/publications_and_papers/household_income_and_expenditure/pp-s23.pdf
Read pages 30 and 31.
How many % of households earn> 20k in 2006 vs 2016. Dig deeper and come to your own conclusion.
How many % of resident household earn > 12k per month???? Come to your own conclusion on the effects. Use 2006 vs 2016 to come to your own conclusion . Hahahaha
Not to mention that private property proportion of housing has gone up from maybe 15-20% to 28% in the very near future, relative to HDBs.
Not an assumption.
How many % of resident household earn > 12k per month???? Come to your own conclusion on the effects. Use 2006 vs 2016 to come to your own conclusion . Hahahaha
Not to mention that private property proportion of housing has gone up from maybe 15-20% to 28% in the very near future, relative to HDBs.
Not an assumption.
In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%
Pg 22
Draw your own conclusion.
If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.
The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha
One possibility is households growing bigger due to pent up demand. Bigger households will have higher incomes.
Just a speculation.
In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%
Pg 22
Draw your own conclusion.
If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.
The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/share-hdb-flats-in-property-market-slumps-in-2016
In 2006 - hdb occupy 83.1%
In 2016 - hdb occupy 80%
Pg 22
Draw your own conclusion.
If your household income was 12k in 2006, technically it should be > 20k in 2016. If not you are lacking behind the pack.
The increase in salary results in inflation???? I am no economist. Hahahahaha
One possibility is households growing bigger due to pent up demand. Bigger households will have higher incomes.
Just a speculation.
Read pg 23. Minimal changes.
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/share-hdb-flats-in-property-market-slumps-in-2016
This article should be more accurate. The stats in the previous reports are for resident and resident employed households. So those foreigners staying in hdb and/or private are not ncluded.
Read pg 23. Minimal changes.
Welcome back bro Chestnut.
Mr K was making a lot of wild assumptions such as plot ratio, en bloc buyers etc etc. When confronted, he now try to show data using SRX to prove that he did not anyhow make wild assumptions. Many a time, he would make more wild assumptions just to argue his points or put you down because your points were in conflict with his.
Anyway, the official data from URA showed overall prices for Q1 2017 was down and continue to decline.
Wild indeed.
It is better not to depend on potential removal of any of the CMs in making a purchasing decision. Particularly I don't see the removal of TDSR, which is not only about property but car vehicle etc. TDSR is actually good, CM (SSD) is silly but that's my view.
Plot ratio revision, wait long long.
Arcachon, I guess your closest neighbour is sharp, he didn't miss the boat, still he had managed to find a drunken buyer to buy at 1.4mil on Jan 12..
Long time no update, look like moving again.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-fbx/v/t1.0-9/18920166_10210672008649296_4982906476314314806_n.jpg?oh=38eaef8d4ac866f4c8b91f0e9c5b2478&oe=59E5E6D4&__gda__=1504164106_a5e99f4ece165210b50007f7ceafb347
Till you can prove, I doubt you can triple this in 4 years as I bought a few around that time in much better location
I don't know how to prove, only know got an email from UOB to cash out my property at Southbank.
UOB value my property at 1,550,000 in Dec 2010 after CSC, loan me 660,000 on top of 428,000 which I loan in Jun 2006.
Tell me I cannot use the money to buy property.
There are indeed one unit i recall sold at 535k during late Jul 06. You sure it still worth 1.5 now?
Price going up soon because MCST just got the main contractor to do some of the defects after years of asking and also doing whole building painting now.
Spend a few weeks staying at Southbank during my holiday back in Singapore when the tenant move out and new tenant moving in later.
Love the place, did walk from Southbank to MBS during one of the stays.
wow that was 7 years ago, how many ten years do you have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGiYeJ5oBZo
Drove from La Teste De Buch(near Arcachon), France to Gatwick, England by the Tunnel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdGfNhxCRhM#t=7.725008
Southbank Oct 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJFdC4wgEJY
Miss the guru at skyscrapercity forum.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=358211
I don't make blank assumptions. The selling price agreed for enbloc do take into considerations the POTENTIAL for plot ratio revisions, even if these do not manifest. Any one of revisions in building height, use restrictions etc will also influence its POTENTIAL, and thus the price that enblockers are willing to accept and that developers are willing to pay.
All the points I put for resales price increases, volume spike, vacancy falls (last 2 quarters), and rental stabilisation are backed by official stats.
For me, I do not buy old enbloc potential properties (silly me) and so I could only speculate based on assumptions and presumptions. But I have visited a multi-gen unit of HUDC where a pair of grandparent lived with several children, a son-in-law, plus grandchildren. When it was enblocced, the daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren went back to their HDB. One of the spouse (single name) bought a resales large private to house their family, and one of the other unmarried child bought a new rental property. They are keeping options open for the other few family members, but all the properties are in single name, why?
I just know that such movements remove supply for sales and rental from the market, regardless of whether they already have existing or are able to downgrade to HDB resales. Whether they are the majority or minority, who knows?
In any case, if you distrust my assumptions and presumptions, which are what they are (no official stats will ever report these), then all you have to do is wait.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2015/11/111205/how-to-tell-if-a-property-has-good-potential-for-capital-appreciation
I have been speculating about enbloc effect on revival of market since Oct 2015.
Wild indeed.
It is better not to depend on potential removal of any of the CMs in making a purchasing decision. Particularly I don't see the removal of TDSR, which is not only about property but car vehicle etc. TDSR is actually good, CM (SSD) is silly but that's my view.
Plot ratio revision, wait long long.
The only thing that can slow the rise now is if Govt announces much higher GLS supply for 2H2017.
But in the short term, there will still be supply crunch coming right ahead.
walkthetiger
05-06-17, 07:57
Long time no update, look like moving again.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-fbx/v/t1.0-9/18920166_10210672008649296_4982906476314314806_n.jpg?oh=38eaef8d4ac866f4c8b91f0e9c5b2478&oe=59E5E6D4&__gda__=1504164106_a5e99f4ece165210b50007f7ceafb347
For those high floor units, the peak price was 1.75m on May 13. How much is valuation now? Did you see your neighbor pop champagne after knowing his current valuation. U will not find buyer paying such money anymore, anyway your investment property is not for sale, only for keeping.
I don't make blank assumptions. The selling price agreed for enbloc do take into considerations the POTENTIAL for plot ratio revisions, even if these do not manifest. Any one of revisions in building height, use restrictions etc will also influence its POTENTIAL, and thus the price that enblockers are willing to accept and that developers are willing to pay.
All the points I put for resales price increases, volume spike, vacancy falls (last 2 quarters), and rental stabilisation are backed by official stats.
For me, I do not buy old enbloc potential properties (silly me) and so I could only speculate based on assumptions and presumptions. But I have visited a multi-gen unit of HUDC where a pair of grandparent lived with several children, a son-in-law, plus grandchildren. When it was enblocced, the daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren went back to their HDB. One of the spouse (single name) bought a resales large private to house their family, and one of the other unmarried child bought a new rental property. They are keeping options open for the other few family members, but all the properties are in single name, why?
I just know that such movements remove supply for sales and rental from the market, regardless of whether they already have existing or are able to downgrade to HDB resales. Whether they are the majority or minority, who knows?
In any case, if you distrust my assumptions and presumptions, which are what they are (no official stats will ever report these), then all you have to do is wait.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2015/11/111205/how-to-tell-if-a-property-has-good-potential-for-capital-appreciation
I have been speculating about enbloc effect on revival of market since Oct 2015.
You are entitled to speculate for all you want.
Look, let look at the big picture alright?
You have bought, vested, I am also vested. So do many people here.
You are buying more, I am also buying more. So do many people here.
The difference?
Your model model is probably with 100% weightage on speculation. My buying model 0% speculation, 100% value based. Other people have their own models.
All I am saying is, today there are value-buys out there, without having to resort to speculation. It is a matter of "is it the right timing to buy more?", "can I trust this market?".
Laguna said "let's see the take up rate of Stirling Road", he (or she?) wanted to see fact.
hopeful asked "what is the impact of enbloc to value/price of surrounding properties?". He wants to be able to calculate, he wants fact.
I don't think you understand the mechanics of an enbloc. There is no assumption of plot ratio revision when developers bid.
CM, this is not new. I suggest you review the historical, what had happened to the market when the government removed previous CM imposed in 1990s.
For those high floor units, the peak price was 1.75m on May 13. How much is valuation now? Did you see your neighbor pop champagne after knowing his current valuation. U will not find buyer paying such money anymore, anyway your investment property is not for sale, only for keeping.
If I am not wrong, most rent out their unit, cash out buy another for self stay like me.
1.75m or not sell also cannot buy.
If you notice, the resale are very limited, if anyone sell better buy now.
Love the place also for the food, 5 am in the morning you can just walk to the hawker centre for breakfast after midnight can go 24 hours coffeee shop at the MRT.
https://fb-s-b-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-fbx/v/t1.0-9/39696_1406123266025_792927_n.jpg?oh=8df305a2aa1302355f0d162ce86998cf&oe=59A841D0&__gda__=1508355435_a7e602a5eb0992e6e45218206edd7703
Want Thai food can walk to Golden Mile.
https://scontent-frt3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/63095_1553114260708_3347917_n.jpg?oh=d77bdf694bb59cfb6867236dbb1cb8a9&oe=59EA55AE
https://scontent-frt3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/28320_1334388592703_3623929_n.jpg?oh=2552e47f21fb5f7e875ec620b0d6eb65&oe=59AC8725
tonymontana
05-06-17, 09:43
Long time no update, look like moving again.
https://fb-s-d-a.akamaihd.net/h-ak-fbx/v/t1.0-9/18920166_10210672008649296_4982906476314314806_n.jpg?oh=38eaef8d4ac866f4c8b91f0e9c5b2478&oe=59E5E6D4&__gda__=1504164106_a5e99f4ece165210b50007f7ceafb347
from the data posted, can obviously see price have moderated (592 sft Aug 2016 905k, may 2017 878k higher floor.) so thats why i say price have dropped.
weak holders or those that need to sell, have to lower prices to sell.
but not to worry, only marginal drop.
PropVestor
05-06-17, 09:44
I pretty much grew up in this area as my grandma lives around there. Studied at Hong Wen Primary around the corner before it moved. Thanks for sharing. Love this place, so much memories.
It's funny how all these memories affected our future decision to invest in that area D7 as well. :)
Glad to see so many of us still around talking about property. Still invested in properties but with diversification of investment since garment's implementation of the string of cooling measures. Tenants and Rental have been kind to me so far. I believe location plays apart.
Glad to see so many of us still around talking about property. Still invested in properties but with diversification of investment since garment's implementation of the string of cooling measures. Tenants and Rental have been kind to me so far. I believe location plays apart.
ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
and also Chestnut
short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....
seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back
My model is 25% speculation, 75% based on existing utility value. 75% of the full value of what I go for can be realised immediately without speculation.
When the full value of something is apparent, one will be paying full value as well.
I am not speculating into the enbloc market where there is huge profits so will leave it to the speculators. My personal belief is not everything will be fully apparent despite our best efforts.
For example, we have no way of predicting changes such as these which easily change the game by 20%
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/circulars/2000/apr/dc00-08
When is the next revision? Who knows? But as long as one is vested, the chance will be there, and it will grow over the years.
So my strategy is 25% speculation for the very long haul (20 years+++), and 75% based on current immediate value (to me). Another of my belief for property is, what is of great value to one person (for example, parents' locality, schools, workplace) is of low or no value to some others.
For each his game, run your own track.
You are entitled to speculate for all you want.
Look, let look at the big picture alright?
You have bought, vested, I am also vested. So do many people here.
You are buying more, I am also buying more. So do many people here.
The difference?
Your model model is probably with 100% weightage on speculation. My buying model 0% speculation, 100% value based. Other people have their own models.
All I am saying is, today there are value-buys out there, without having to resort to speculation. It is a matter of "is it the right timing to buy more?", "can I trust this market?".
Laguna said "let's see the take up rate of Stirling Road", he (or she?) wanted to see fact.
hopeful asked "what is the impact of enbloc to value/price of surrounding properties?". He wants to be able to calculate, he wants fact.
I don't think you understand the mechanics of an enbloc. There is no assumption of plot ratio revision when developers bid.
CM, this is not new. I suggest you review the historical, what had happened to the market when the government removed previous CM imposed in 1990s.
ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
and also Chestnut
short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....
seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back
The Fun has just begun.
The Fun has just begun.
Fun can be both ways...up with cooling measures or more GLS coming soon or
Down....when there is job loss and recession.....
Fun can be both ways...up with cooling measures or more GLS coming soon or
Down....when there is job loss and recession.....
I see more up than down, with all the crazy people destroying thing we need to produce more.
http://www.sixdaywarproject.org/
When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Pilbara boom to bust for millionaire property brothers Ryan and Morgan Crawford
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/pilbara-boom-to-bust-for-millionaire-property-brothers-ryan-and-morgan-crawford-ng-b88493300z
As guarantors for Niche Residential Pty Ltd, ANZ claimed the brothers took out a $560,000 loan in 2012, which was used to buy an $800,000 three-bedroom, one-bathroom property in South Hedland.
Landgate records show that property was sold in September last year for $79,000, with the bank allegedly collecting just $49,600 at settlement.
ANZ claimed in 2013, Morgan Crawford borrowed $920,000 for a $1.25 million three-bedroom, one-bathroom house, again in South Hedland, which sold for $205,000 last year.
We are peanut compare to Ang Mo.
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/new-south-wales-hikes-property-tax-for-foreigners
Don't know where will they go.
It was certainly a very property market when I join here in 2008. It is good to know that there are still an avid property group engaging in heated discussion. Had been focusing in equity and bonds since the cooling measures. Divested some of them to take profit and looking for new opportunities. Any suggestions? @Chestnut: I did not retire 3 years ago as there was a higher calling from my top management. Still working....
ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
and also Chestnut
short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....
seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back
My model is 25% speculation, 75% based on existing utility value. 75% of the full value of what I go for can be realised immediately without speculation.
When the full value of something is apparent, one will be paying full value as well.
I am not speculating into the enbloc market where there is huge profits so will leave it to the speculators. My personal belief is not everything will be fully apparent despite our best efforts.
For example, we have no way of predicting changes such as these which easily change the game by 20%
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/circulars/2000/apr/dc00-08
When is the next revision? Who knows? But as long as one is vested, the chance will be there, and it will grow over the years.
So my strategy is 25% speculation for the very long haul (20 years+++), and 75% based on current immediate value (to me). Another of my belief for property is, what is of great value to one person (for example, parents' locality, schools, workplace) is of low or no value to some others.
For each his game, run your own track.
When a pricing model is based on 25% speculation 75% value/fact, what is the implication to the capital deployed?
For a capital deployment of $500 k over a purchase price of $1 mil, $125 k (25% of $500 k) is deployed based on speculation.
Then the question of "so what if the speculation turned out to be correct?" Are you the only beneficiary? Is there an edge over other investors who bought?
In other words, let's say another investor has bought a similar $1 mil property at the SAME time as you but his pricing model is devoid of speculation, are you better off than him?
The answer is clearly "no".
Unless what is being speculated is clearly proprietary, for example an insider info of an impending enbloc.
This is not an academic problem sum. Not everything can be counted to dollars and cents.
When a pricing model is based on 25% speculation 75% value/fact, what is the implication to the capital deployed?
For a capital deployment of $500 k over a purchase price of $1 mil, $125 k (25% of $500 k) is deployed based on speculation.
Then the question of "so what if the speculation turned out to be correct?" Are you the only beneficiary? Is there an edge over other investors who bought?
In other words, let's say another investor has bought a similar $1 mil property at the SAME time as you but his pricing model is devoid of speculation, are you better off than him?
The answer is clearly "no".
Unless what is being speculated is clearly proprietary, for example an insider info of an impending enbloc.
Great for you brother. Good to have you back.
Indeed equities and bonds had a great run these couple of years. Should still be positive going forward although there are lots of uncertainties.
It was certainly a very property market when I join here in 2008. It is good to know that there are still an avid property group engaging in heated discussion. Had been focusing in equity and bonds since the cooling measures. Divested some of them to take profit and looking for new opportunities. Any suggestions? @Chestnut: I did not retire 3 years ago as there was a higher calling from my top management. Still working....
Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
Great for you brother. Good to have you back.
Indeed equities and bonds had a great run these couple of years. Should still be positive going forward although there are lots of uncertainties.
All the champions and Old Bird huating.. Wonder where is JLRX. amk and 'Devil Plate' (hope i remember the name well).. and of course our Jgate spokesman....
Investing in Sg property if just looking into it as a single investment instrument then it is not holistic.
There are few major worrying macro-economy factors in the perhaps short to medium terms
1. "One Belt, One Road" impact on Sg
2. Pulling out of MNC from Sg as cost of operations are high
3. Debts of the big countries like China, US, Europe
4. Long overdue correction of equity markets
5. Raising Interest rates
Do you think it is possible for Queenstown area to have this pricing level? Clementi might have but a little out of city fringe.
Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
Two more HUDB enbloc OTW
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2017/6/153794/two-estates-gunning-for-en-bloc-sales?utm_source=pgsg-newsalert&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=dailynews-05Jun2017&utm_content=links
Yeah I just surveyed a little, and it seems both areas have 3bedders with this budget. Try Queens Peak and maybe Trilinq (not that close to MRT).
tonymontana
05-06-17, 15:22
Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
sophia hill
mackenzie rd
potong pasir mrt vicinity
katong joo chiat area
so many.
watch up oil price
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/us-oil-output-to-grow-more-even-as-drillers-costs-rise-analysts-say.html
The person has checkout Queenstown/Commonwealth/Redhill, they are in the region of $1600 - $1800psf. Trilliq near Clementi is too noisy with the nearby roads/tunnel even for high floors although it has lower psf of $1300++.
Do you think it is possible for Queenstown area to have this pricing level? Clementi might have but a little out of city fringe.
Watch out for parkway mansion, on its way too
The person has checkout Queenstown/Commonwealth/Redhill, they are in the region of $1600 - $1800psf. Trilliq near Clementi is too noisy with the nearby roads/tunnel even for high floors although it has lower psf of $1300++.
I think must specify minimum size.
ya...me too, to see you still come live to here and few others
and also Chestnut
short of BJ21..but I am in touch with him in Facebook....
seems like property market has turned around with all present..but the heat level is far below years back
Seems like some of the old timers are back.....good to see you all back!
I have not seen Phantom Opera for a while. Will be good to hear his views too.
ccreporter
05-06-17, 19:35
Can we read this as a sign of market recovery?
Investing in Sg property if just looking into it as a single investment instrument then it is not holistic.
There are few major worrying macro-economy factors in the perhaps short to medium terms
1. "One Belt, One Road" impact on Sg
2. Pulling out of MNC from Sg as cost of operations are high
3. Debts of the big countries like China, US, Europe
4. Long overdue correction of equity markets
5. Raising Interest rates
Even if all is well, Singapore's ageing organic population not in your radar?
So 50k no enough?
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-has-to-manage-population-growth-carefully-pm-lee-8888750
Even if all is well, Singapore's ageing organic population not in your radar?
Just extracted from URA that total number of unsold units as at April 2017
12929 (include EC)
10783 (exclude EC)
Launched but not sold
7394 (Include EC)
5248 (Exclude EC)
So the numbers speak by itself
anythingwhatever
05-06-17, 23:34
Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
IMHO, reasonably-priced decent-scale City-Fringe projects in the East:
New LH: Sims Urban Oasis
New LH: TRE Residences
Resale LH: Simsville
Resale LH: Central Grove
Resale FH: Esta Ruby
Resale FH: Le Crescendo
Bro Bargain Hunter came up with a list showing the breakdown by segment. There is a serious supply crunch just right ahead.
ECs sold 1018 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30f.pdf
PCs sold 2276 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30c2.pdf
Assuming your data is all accurate, how many quarters can they last?
This is the lowest stock we have had for PCs and ECs in the last 5 years...
Just extracted from URA that total number of unsold units as at April 2017
12929 (include EC)
10783 (exclude EC)
Launched but not sold
7394 (Include EC)
5248 (Exclude EC)
So the numbers speak by itself
Bro Bargain Hunter came up with a list showing the breakdown by segment. There is a serious supply crunch just right ahead.
ECs sold 1018 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30f.pdf
PCs sold 2276 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30c2.pdf
Assuming your data is all accurate, how many quarters can they last?
This is the lowest stock we have had for PCs and ECs in the last 5 years...
No need to worry, MND knows the number much better than us...let us see how the 2H2017 GLS going to be...
challenger
06-06-17, 00:04
The person has checkout Queenstown/Commonwealth/Redhill, they are in the region of $1600 - $1800psf. Trilliq near Clementi is too noisy with the nearby roads/tunnel even for high floors although it has lower psf of $1300++.
I find Trillinq a very long walk to MRT. I seriously considered investing a unit there 2 years back. Prices very reasonable. But a lot of competition from old condos Regent Park and Park West.
anythingwhatever
06-06-17, 00:10
Bro Bargain Hunter came up with a list showing the breakdown by segment. There is a serious supply crunch just right ahead.
ECs sold 1018 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30f.pdf
PCs sold 2276 new units in Q1 2017:
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/-/media/User%20Defined/URA%20Online/media-room/2017/Apr/pr17-30c2.pdf
Assuming your data is all accurate, how many quarters can they last?
This is the lowest stock we have had for PCs and ECs in the last 5 years...
Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound? :)
proud owner
06-06-17, 02:53
Profit was great from equities and bonds. What other opportunities? My friend is looking for a 3-bedder condo in the city fringe for own stay (preference such as near mrt) with a budget of $1.5mil. Any recommendation?
My friend bought a 3 bedrm FH in D5 ... quiet , sea view, walk to YELLOW LINE at 1.45mil
So 50k no enough?
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-has-to-manage-population-growth-carefully-pm-lee-8888750
I think we form a good pair; you look only at the positives and I look beyond the positives. Then the forum has the needed diversity. Ahaha.
We are speaking of age profile?
The 50 k new citizens per year are not new born babies (or somehow they don't age), even if they are it will probably take 10 years to tilt the age profile favourably.
Look beyond the number, the 50 k more likely than not it comes from the PR pool; some are children of parents, some are long standing PR who retired or near retiring etc. In order words, not all are economically productive.
Look at the photos taken at citizenship ceremonies can tell liao. So my number is a conservative 20 k per year, you want to use 50 k per year also can la nobody can stop you, haha.
Iirc, the property buying age group of 25 - 49 is shrinking at the rate of about 20 k per year gong forward. This is not totally a threat, but an opportunity also depending how it is being 'played'.
Just extracted from URA that total number of unsold units as at April 2017
12929 (include EC)
10783 (exclude EC)
Launched but not sold
7394 (Include EC)
5248 (Exclude EC)
So the numbers speak by itself
Tio bo?
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/news/2017/Jan/pr17-06
I am not revealing all the tricks of our Govt in number packaging, even though all official numbers are real. Just examine all official numbers carefully. I do enjoy the balance but trust me in saying I have seen that angle.
Just two points.
Ageing population that is getting more and more developed needs more housing units or less as the years go?
On top of new citizens, who else needs additional housing, and who actually relinquishes housing needs every year? Is the annual total stock built forward enough for the additional needs?
I think we form a good pair; you look only at the positives and I look beyond the positives. Then the forum has the needed diversity. Ahaha.
We are speaking of age profile?
The 50 k new citizens per year are not new born babies (or somehow they don't age), even if they are it will probably take 10 years to tilt the age profile favourably.
Look beyond the number, the 50 k more likely than not it comes from the PR pool; some are children of parents, some are long standing PR who retired or near retiring etc. In order words, not all are economically productive.
Look at the photos taken at citizenship ceremonies can tell liao. So my number is a conservative 20 k per year, you want to use 50 k per year also can la nobody can stop you, haha.
Iirc, the property buying age group of 25 - 49 is shrinking at the rate of about 20 k per year gong forward. This is not totally a threat, but an opportunity also depending how it is being 'played'.
I am not revealing all the tricks of our Govt in number packaging, even though all official numbers are real. Just examine all official numbers carefully. I do enjoy the balance but trust me in saying I have seen that angle.
Just two points.
Ageing population that is getting more and more developed needs more housing units or less as the years go?
On top of new citizens, who else needs additional housing, and who actually relinquishes housing needs every year? Is the annual total stock built forward enough for the additional needs?
No matter how you or the government want(s) to package it, the population numbers data still accounted officially.
Are you claiming that the Department of Statistics of Singapore is fudging the numbers published?
Can we read this as a sign of market recovery?
There is a sign that cash is going to get crush. American is getting desperate to hold down the USD petrodolar status in the gulf region by blockading Qatar. The rest of arab countries must support the use of american dolar because their assets are denominated in US dolar. If Qatar breakaway from dolar...the domino effect will collapse the dolar and arab countries will find their dolar assets worthless
ccreporter
06-06-17, 08:52
There is a sign that cash is going to get crush. American is getting desperate to hold down the USD petrodolar status in the gulf region by blockading Qatar. The rest of arab countries must support the use of american dolar because their assets are denominated in US dolar. If Qatar breakaway from dolar...the domino effect will collapse the dolar and arab countries will find their dolar assets worthless
This is something new... Never seen this theory elsewhere. Any supporting info? What Qatar wants to break into? Gold?
Nope. I already said all official stats regarding New Citizens are real.
Go to investigate a few things.
1. Population change
2. Death and birth rates / numbers
Think.
I have helped you enough.
No matter how you or the government want(s) to package it, the population numbers data still accounted officially.
Are you claiming that the Department of Statistics of Singapore is fudging the numbers published?
Nope. I already said all official stats regarding New Citizens are real.
Go to investigate a few things.
1. Population change
2. Death and birth rates / numbers
Think.
I have helped you enough.
Thanks but I already did.
So what is your finding? My finding already stated liao.
The so-called finding you have stated is based on a static view of the SG population. What is a citizen? What is a new citizen? What is a PR? What is a foreigner?
Do examine the numbers carefully and probe more thoroughly if you wish. Read PM Lee's words three times and consider alternative interpretations of what it is he is really saying. I really can't say more or else I will sabotage the good work done so far in ensuring long term survival of SG. This is my last post on population at this point in time.
Some resources to help you as well:
https://forum.singaporeexpats.com/viewtopic.php?t=104144
The so-called finding you have stated is based on a static view of the SG population. What is a citizen? What is a new citizen? What is a PR? What is a foreigner?
Do examine the numbers carefully and probe more thoroughly if you wish. Read PM Lee's words three times and consider alternative interpretations of what it is he is really saying. I really can't say more or else I will sabotage the good work done so far in ensuring long term survival of SG. This is my last post on population at this point in time.
Some resources to help you as well:
https://forum.singaporeexpats.com/viewtopic.php?t=104144
I take it that you have no finding, or unwilling to share if there is one.
In 2016, residents of age 65 and above increased by 34,000 y-o-y, TAKEN into account mortality. This number is increasing going forward based on existing population age profile.
The total population is
2014 (5.47 mil)
2015 (5.54 mil)
2016 (5.61 mil)
All figures from Department of Statistics Singapore.
I take it that you have no finding, or unwilling to share if there is one.
In 2016, residents of age 65 and above increased by 34,000 y-o-y, TAKEN into account mortality. This number is increasing going forward based on existing population age profile.
The total population is
2014 (5.47 mil)
2015 (5.54 mil)
2016 (5.61 mil)
All figures from Department of Statistics Singapore.
By the time the 2017 statistics is published, the age group 25 - 49 (universally recognised as the "property purchasing age group") will have shrunk by about 31,000 (from proprietary model).
You can do your own calculation.
Only know got 3 more ten years to go and soon more will know how many ten years they have.
Tell me if you got all the money, what will you do.
By the time the 2017 statistics is published, the age group 25 - 49 (universally recognised as the "property purchasing age group") will have shrunk by about 31,000 (from proprietary model).
You can do your own calculation.
Long Long Time ago, Singapore got only one university, not many got a good paying job.
Not many know how the rich become richer.
Information is limited to only a few fortunate people.
If you know I get my first million by just buying a PC and wait for 4 years what will you do.
Only know got 3 more ten years to go and soon more will know how many ten years they have.
Tell me if you got all the money, what will you do.
what is it with the 10 years ? why only 3 more?
seems to me like there are lots of 10 years going around. eg 1991-2000, 1992-2001, 1993-2002, 1994-2003, 1995-2004 etc.
based on lifespan, there should be like 79 1-year, 75 5-year, 70 10-years, 60 20-years, 50 30-years, 30 50-years,20 60-year, 10 70-year.
you often say people see either glass half-empty or glass half-full and you seems to be the think positive kind. so dont limit to 3 10-year ok. if you are 50 years old, should still have 20 10-years left, not just 3. think positive.
Friend, you are incredibly young. Maybe not the most polite but very direct.
You are probably right to state that the mass property buying group shrinks perhaps in 2016, 2017 and the way forward.
But people into their 50s and 60s till 70s and 80s will still generally continue to hold onto their properties purchased when they were in 20s, 30s or 40s. They would not and could not simply let go of their properties because they have passed the age to buy. Just examine Japan with much lower immigration (I speculate). The ageing population still requires a growing number of houses.
Also, the successful investors like Chestnut bro and other businessmen will continue to have access to the markets, although admittedly a minority.
The next most important question to ask is, if the annual build of 25,000 HDB (all sizes) plus less than a total stock of some 10+K private properties sufficient to cater for a background nett growth of 70,000 people every year (just based on your stats)?
By the time the 2017 statistics is published, the age group 25 - 49 (universally recognised as the "property purchasing age group") will have shrunk by about 31,000 (from proprietary model).
You can do your own calculation.
Long Long Time ago, Singapore got only one university, not many got a good paying job.
Not many know how the rich become richer.
Information is limited to only a few fortunate people.
If you know I get my first million by just buying a PC and wait for 4 years what will you do.
buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?
how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?
buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?
how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?
Hello, Hopeful....great to see you back.
What is your view of the current run?
Friend, you are incredibly young. Maybe not the most polite but very direct.
You are probably right to state that the mass property buying group shrinks perhaps in 2016, 2017 and the way forward.
But people into their 50s and 60s till 70s and 80s will still generally continue to hold onto their properties purchased when they were in 20s, 30s or 40s. They would not and could not simply let go of their properties because they have passed the age to buy. Just examine Japan with much lower immigration (I speculate). The ageing population still requires a growing number of houses.
Also, the successful investors like Chestnut bro and other businessmen will continue to have access to the markets, although admittedly a minority.
The next most important question to ask is, if the annual build of 25,000 HDB (all sizes) plus less than a total stock of some 10+K private properties sufficient to cater for a background nett growth of 70,000 people every year (just based on your stats)?
Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.
Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.
On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.
I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.
The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.
Zao
Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?
No offense really. There was a time I asked the same questions you did and had the same thoughts you have.
Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.
Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.
On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.
I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.
The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.
Zao
Pretty sure he is still around. YoweTan.
Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?
anythingwhatever
06-06-17, 14:07
Friend, nothing to do with being young or old. I think we should be able to accept all viewpoints without giving labels to whoever making them. If you feel offended by the assertiveness, my apologies.
Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.
On your question, everyone has his own price/risk model, all I can say is buy selectively.
I also think an investor will need find the opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio if he sees the "new normal" of the ageing population. An active portfolio management approach.
The big size units are already affected by the household size getting smaller, they will be especially vulnerable to the population shift. I will not suggest a wholesale dumping approach but to weight in the possibility of enbloc also. The potential is there, probably greater than what most people think but I will not go into the details. Its a matter of time that this potential is discovered, provided that the market stays buoyant.
Zao
Do come back often ya, fun to have you around haha... :)
tonymontana
06-06-17, 14:43
Anyone knows what happen to the one bought Mt Sinai?
The one packed his parents, in-laws, dogs, his BIL and his family into one house ?
still around.
every now and then he appear to whack hillview.
Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound？
anythingwhatever
06-06-17, 20:10
Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound？
Word for Word... Got Copyleft. :)
Wow, imagine the new launches are sold out in the next 6 quarters, resale shall rebound? :)
still around.
every now and then he appear to whack hillview.
ya...did a search of him...hardly active for quite sometime, seems like no posting this year.
Seems having problems
proud owner
06-06-17, 22:24
For the first time after a long while, seeing old friends 'gathering' .... brings back some good memories...
HP65 Chestnut Laguna ....
indeed forum activities picking up ...
i do know ... on the landed front ... seeing quite a bit of activities ... in D10 .... large plot ....
though landed rental remain 'cheap' ....
what is it with the 10 years ? why only 3 more?
seems to me like there are lots of 10 years going around. eg 1991-2000, 1992-2001, 1993-2002, 1994-2003, 1995-2004 etc.
based on lifespan, there should be like 79 1-year, 75 5-year, 70 10-years, 60 20-years, 50 30-years, 30 50-years,20 60-year, 10 70-year.
you often say people see either glass half-empty or glass half-full and you seems to be the think positive kind. so dont limit to 3 10-year ok. if you are 50 years old, should still have 20 10-years left, not just 3. think positive.
My pastor in France told us, every morning when he open his eye he thanks God for giving him another day.
Trust me when you know when is your last day, you will live every day as if it is your last.
buy a PC (southbank) in 2006? and wait for 4 years get your first million in 2010, additional 7 years later, in 2017, got additional million? or is it still the same 1 million?
how about the PC (terrasse) in 2012? 5 years has passed already. already get additional million?
Every month increase by 6800 after I buy Terrasse, the next million coming soon.
Don't worry I am going away from this forum do something else, ahaha.
Zao
Hi Zao
Sincerely hope you stay, I enjoy reading your postings.
Kindly consider
Investing in Sg property if just looking into it as a single investment instrument then it is not holistic.
There are few major worrying macro-economy factors in the perhaps short to medium terms
1. "One Belt, One Road" impact on Sg
2. Pulling out of MNC from Sg as cost of operations are high
3. Debts of the big countries like China, US, Europe
4. Long overdue correction of equity markets
5. Raising Interest rates
Foreign investors to pour nearly $1 trillion into emerging markets in 2017: IIF
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-flows-iif-idUSKBN18X1NJ
"Non-resident capital inflows to emerging markets should reach $970 billion this year, a 35 percent increase from 2016, the Institute of International Finance said in a report released on Tuesday."
This could be one of the major catalysts this year from a macro-level picture.
Hi Zao
Sincerely hope you stay, I enjoy reading your postings.
Kindly consider
Hi Laguna,
I am happy just to lurk but will see how things go?
Meanwhile, hope you enjoy the clip.
(Hakuho Sho winning the Summer Natsu 2017)
https://youtu.be/VtUfdZb0grw
Hi Laguna,
I am happy just to lurk but will see how things go?
Meanwhile, hope you enjoy the clip.
(Hakuho Sho winning the Summer Natsu 2017)
https://youtu.be/VtUfdZb0grw
Thanks for the clip. Hope to see you back
Amber Woods
08-06-17, 09:46
Let us hope that the etiquette shown by Hakuho and Laguna will continue to be the standard for this forum.
Remark like 'waiting for durians to drop' by that French guy is not etiquette nor helpful even if he foolishly believe in putting all his money into property.
Let us hope that the etiquette shown by Hakuho and Laguna will continue to be the standard for this forum.
Remark like 'waiting for durians to drop' by that French guy is not etiquette nor helpful even if he foolishly believe in putting all his money into property.
I know whos that french guy...hahaha. But to be fair he merely suggesting those who are waiting to buy don't have to wait too long to buy. He never suggest those who don't need to buy to buy now
Hello, Hopeful....great to see you back.
What is your view of the current run?
i (and many other people) saw storm clouds gathering in 2011-2012 and i said crash would happened in 2015-2016. what happened was a drizzle but the storm clouds remained. now there are more storm clouds gathering (see your first post).
we can't predict when there will be thunderstorm but the storm clouds are there.
i am not sure what others do when they see storm clouds, for myself, i will take shelter and not go out as i am a firm believer of "better be an hour early than a second late". perhaps other think they can venture out and get back to shelter before the storm arrive?
My pastor in France told us, every morning when he open his eye he thanks God for giving him another day.
Trust me when you know when is your last day, you will live every day as if it is your last.
following the forum etiquette rules, i will be more polite.
thank you for the advice, but somebody once said "in G i trust, the rest i verify".
and so back to your question? how many 10-year do you have. seems from your answer, everyday is the start of a new 10-year.
normally a person will spend his last day with his most loved ones. so i thank you once again on behalf of forummers here that you regarded us as your most beloved as you live your last day (every day) in the forum with us forummers.
Every month increase by 6800 after I buy Terrasse, the next million coming soon.
hi there once again,
6800 takes 147 months (or ~12 years),it looks to me that the rate of increase kind of slow down just a little bit.
from 2006 to 2010, ~500k to ~1.5mio, impressive rate of increase.
from 2012 to 2017, ~net equity (~2.xx) mio, takes ~12 years to increase 50% ?
you have so kindly gave us a record of your property transactions.
can you be so kind once more as to give us a break down of the 6800 ? is it gross or net rental income?
Amen.
Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words.
Have seen a lot of people who become very angry because of some spoken words also.
I can only pray for them to know how to be happy.
following the forum etiquette rules, i will be more polite.
thank you for the advice, but somebody once said "in G i trust, the rest i verify".
and so back to your question? how many 10-year do you have. seems from your answer, everyday is the start of a new 10-year.
normally a person will spend his last day with his most loved ones. so i thank you once again on behalf of forummers here that you regarded us as your most beloved as you live your last day (every day) in the forum with us forummers.
I have been pondering on this point too. Property investment is like taking vitamins. Its only effective when you are still young and healthy. When we are old and sick...its too late to take vitamins...we need medicine
Some only consider the worst case scenario (the heaviest flooding storm).
Some only consider it as sunny all the time.
The best is to read the weather forecast and prepare accordingly. The storm will always come after a while but the sun will always come out thereafter. And no storm ever really drowns anyone in Singapore. Cannot hide in your home and use Internet all the time right, even though that is safer than going out.
Amen.
Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words.
Have seen a lot of people who become very angry because of some spoken words also.
I can only pray for them to know how to be happy.
letters and words are very important.
i am pretty sure your family will be very angry and unhappy if you mis-spelt your spouse and child's name as "hopeful" in the the beneficiary in your CPF, your will and your insurance policies.
please explain to them that "Life is too short to be affected by a few a b c alphabet join together to become words."
i am pretty sure that there exist property experts that can enter & exit properties at the turn of a dime, buy in the morning and sell in the same evening. but unfortunately i am not one. at least for me, buying and selling can take weeks to months. same for renting too.
hence i would rather be an hour early than a second late.
perhaps i am just plain unlucky or lousy. i am not sure about the other forummers here. do you all take weeks/months or just hours to complete?
i am pretty sure that there exist property experts that can enter & exit properties at the turn of a dime, buy in the morning and sell in the same evening. but unfortunately i am not one. at least for me, buying and selling can take weeks to months. same for renting too.
hence i would rather be an hour early than a second late.
perhaps i am just plain unlucky or lousy. i am not sure about the other forummers here. do you all take weeks/months or just hours to complete?
Your property strategy is not evolving. Personally I gain so much from this forum. I am getting closer to my aim of staying vested but remain liquid in cash. We can have the best of both world.
well use whatever method that works and comfortable with.
out of how many "evolutions", how many fails and how many succeed.
how about we work out some numbers?
for completed properties, buying in 2013 and renting out for 3 years vs buying in 2016.
does the reduction in price in 2016 offset the NETT rental income for 3 years?
if you want to change the period, no problem too, but of course dont say buy in 2006 + rent out for 10 years vs buying in 2016
well use whatever method that works and comfortable with.
out of how many "evolutions", how many fails and how many succeed.
how about we work out some numbers?
for completed properties, buying in 2013 and renting out for 3 years vs buying in 2016.
does the reduction in price in 2016 offset the NETT rental income for 3 years?
if you want to change the period, no problem too, but of course dont say buy in 2006 + rent out for 10 years vs buying in 2016
I started with buying a couple of cheap property in 2010 and selling some of them for capital gain to pay off some of the mortgages
I started with buying a couple of cheap property in 2010 and selling some of them for capital gain to pay off some of the mortgages
buy cheap sell expensive. thats a very good strategy. and how has that strategy evolved over time?
would you better off selling all the properties rather than holding some of them for rental income? how many months of NETT rental income would it take to cover the drop in equity for example?
just curious at that point in time in 2010, do you think the properties were cheap? or only cheap in hindsight?
buy cheap sell expensive. thats a very good strategy. and how has that strategy evolved over time?
would you better off selling all the properties rather than holding some of them for rental income? how many months of NETT rental income would it take to cover the drop in equity for example?
just curious at that point in time in 2010, do you think the properties were cheap? or only cheap in hindsight?
My strategy has changed now. I no longer go for penny stock property. I am going for blue chip property. I am still keeping the property that pay for itself.
Back in 2010 for example it is cheaper to buy SG property than Indonesia property, because bank loan is easy to get. In Indonesia for premium property is mostly cash. I knew it was cheap because with 300k.. I can buy 1 million dollar property. As a foreigner I can see it was cheap.
Even today I still can't believe that some singaporeans without absd refuse to buy. Compare to other places on earth...your property product is cheap in term of infrastructures...
Especially ocr.
strategy is still buy low, sell high.
please do not change to buy high, sell higher or even worse buy high, sell low.
you threw a dart at any property with min current yield 4%, that property is going to pay for itself.
so what do you consider blue chip property and penny stock property?
singapore is attractive because at this point in time, it is where rental can cover mortgage payment. this was always not so. there was a long stretch of time when rental cannot cover mortgage payment.
have you work out the calculations?
in 2015, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2016, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2017, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
better off selling rather keeping it depends on time period is it not.
has anybody else calculate buy in 2013 and rental income more worth it than buy in 2015,2016?
this thread is not just me and indomie :)
strategy is still buy low, sell high.
please do not change to buy high, sell higher or even worse buy high, sell low.
you threw a dart at any property with min current yield 4%, that property is going to pay for itself.
so what do you consider blue chip property and penny stock property?
singapore is attractive because at this point in time, it is where rental can cover mortgage payment. this was always not so. there was a long stretch of time when rental cannot cover mortgage payment.
have you work out the calculations?
in 2015, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2016, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2017, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
better off selling rather keeping it depends on time period is it not.
has anybody else calculate buy in 2013 and rental income more worth it than buy in 2015,2016?
this thread is not just me and indomie :)
Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.
Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.
I agree....sometimes doing nothing is a form of strategy.
Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.
and with no rental, you would be paying the mortgage from your salary (and other income). and it is not a matter of want to keep, it is a matter whether you can keep, which depends on your ability to service the mortgage. i think most bank mortgagees would rather keep their properties rather than sell it at a loss.
question1: for those who want to rent out property
if you have to pay ABSD whether you buy in 2013 and 2015/2016.
would you better off buying in 2013 and earn 2-3 years rental income vs buying in 2015/2016.
question2: for those who is a tenant and who want to buy
if you have to pay rental from 2013 to 2015/2016.
would you be better off buying in 2013 or pay 2-3 years rental expenses and buying in 2015/2016.
the answer of course depends on time period and what property CCR/RCR/OCR.
for question2, i think nobody would dispute that it is better to pay 2-3 years rental expenses in CCR and buy CCR in 2015/2016.
for the rest, do your own calculation with your own properties and if you want, share your findings in the forums.
Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment
Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million
Which one better?
the thing i want to say is timing. get the timing right, and it is plain sailing, like buying southbank in 2006 allows one owner to keep on repeating ad-nauseum that he gets $1mio (paper gains) in 4 years. there are other properties (eg.citysquare residences, the sail), but the owners seems to be keeping awfully quiet about their paper gains. beats me why.
if get timing wrong, buying CCR in 2007 vs 2006. what a world of difference 1 year make. one laugh to the bank, one cry to the bank.
Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment
Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million
Which one better?
trick question? would be better off getting the jakarta property.
and with no rental, you would be paying the mortgage from your salary (and other income). and it is not a matter of want to keep, it is a matter whether you can keep, which depends on your ability to service the mortgage. i think most bank mortgagees would rather keep their properties rather than sell it at a loss.
.
Correct. This is why I say if I dont need money meaning i have other income to service the mortgage, I will not sell. But if I need money, I will sell even at a loss. But luckily have not resorted to this stage yet.:friendly_wink:
trick question? would be better off getting the jakarta property.
hahaha... you are wrong
the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.
the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k
TOTAL = 575k
This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school
Consideing SGD to IDR rate increased from 6500 im 2010 to 9500 in 2017, the absolute home price increase in SGD term is only 37% (within 7 years)
If you bought SG property in 2010 and sold it in 2013, you might able to get 20-40% increased (within 3 years, depending on location CCR is lower, RCR higher)
Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment
Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million
Which one better?
Amber Woods
08-06-17, 15:39
hahaha... you are wrong
the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.
the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k
TOTAL = 575k
This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school
So if you are Singaporean, will you time your purchase or just buy like what you and that French guy are advocating over the last 7 years?
hahaha... you are wrong
the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.
the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k
TOTAL = 575k
This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school
good one. you caught me there. i am much humbled by your experience :)
this is a teachable moment for kelonguni, if you are caught pants down regarding the some wrong facts, eg the yield of your 1st property. just admit it. try not to beat about the bush and smoke your way through, which make it worse.
see the difference in my response vs your response.
i will pay myself on the back for being a good loser :playful:
What about the yield?
I already said can't reveal everything to you lor.
It's you who did not read my post carefully. The yield was calculated based on the amount I paid (forfeited), aka purchase price. It was not based on current prices.
And while I can cash out to go for other instruments, no other instrument I know has such yields even based on today's price, not even the COCO bonds or something. And got to pay tax both ways to replace. Why bother?
Just read that original post again if you have time.
good one. you caught me there. i am much humbled by your experience :)
this is a teachable moment for kelonguni, if you are caught pants down regarding the some wrong facts, eg the yield of your 1st property. just admit it. try not to beat about the bush and smoke your way through, which make it worse.
see the difference in my response vs your response.
i will pay myself on the back for being a good loser :playful:
What about the yield?
I already said can't reveal everything to you lor.
It's you who did not read my post carefully. The yield was calculated based on the amount I paid (forfeited), aka purchase price. It was not based on current prices.
forummers here can read the exchange and can decide for themselves who are the one smoking.
of course one cannot reveal everything because if reveal what type of property and year purchased, people can start to fact-check the claims.
the grandiose statement "more than a decade of understanding how the system works........many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky" do sounds VERY IMPRESSIVE.
but if after all that studies, it doesn't not produce outsize returns (and every tom, dick, harry achieving similar yield), then the statement is a big letdown. nobody would be impressed, to put it mildly :)
so i do understand if you cannot reveal everything. I am such an understanding guy. i am patting myself on the back again :playful:
My strategy is just to deploy small sums based on equities to achieve hit and run yields and sometimes longer term yields.
As long as the sums are not big, I am not psychologically compromised, and decisions can be made swiftly.
When my accumulated sum is big enough, it will go into a property to "fix" it. Not looking to sell when the price is high (for property), unless I need to sell. For equities, I buy and sell quite regularly.
This is my equity gain for May 2017, excluding dividends collected. I did not sell all of it.
Not even collecting money for my sharing of experience, unlike some property gurus who hold "sure-win" or "sure-gain" courses and seminars.
You can choose to learn as much as you can, or you can choose to force someone to clam up.
Its true we have been thinking about how the SG system works. We do many scenario role plays and have at least gone through the full length of the cycle, we predict China / India / Indonesia / Malaysia environment and strategies, and anticipate and experience how our local authorities decide on actions to cool the market and soft land the market. Which part do you think we smoke you? Must I print a copy of my deeds and purchase agreements to show you?
forummers here can read the exchange and can decide for themselves who are the one smoking.
of course one cannot reveal everything because if reveal what type of property and year purchased, people can start to fact-check the claims.
the grandiose statement "more than a decade of understanding how the system works........many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky" do sounds VERY IMPRESSIVE.
but if after all that studies, it doesn't not produce outsize returns (and every tom, dick, harry achieving similar yield), then the statement is a big letdown. nobody would be impressed, to put it mildly :)
so i do understand if you cannot reveal everything. I am such an understanding guy. i am patting myself on the back again :playful:
Not even collecting money for my sharing of experience, unlike some property gurus who hold "sure-win" or "sure-gain" courses and seminars.
You can choose to learn as much as you can, or you can choose to force someone to clam up.
Its true we have been thinking about how the SG system works. We do many scenario role plays and have at least gone through the full length of the cycle, we predict China / India / Indonesia / Malaysia environment and strategies, and anticipate and experience how our local authorities decide on actions to cool the market and soft land the market. Which part do you think we smoke you? Must I print a copy of my deeds and purchase agreements to show you?
how did "I" becomes "We" ????
no need deeds and purchases, just name and year. that will do.
if you think revealing the names and year of purchase can en-able forummers to reverse-engineer your winning formula and thus causing you ALL (since it is "we") to lose the winning edge, then no need to reveal. I do understand the need for secrecy of the winning formula. by the way, do you need to seek permission first from the others "we" to reveal the names and year of purchase?
how did "I" becomes "We" ????
no need deeds and purchases, just name and year. that will do.
if you think revealing the names and year of purchase can en-able forummers to reverse-engineer your winning formula and thus causing you ALL (since it is "we") to lose the winning edge, then no need to reveal. I do understand the need for secrecy of the winning formula. by the way, do you need to seek permission first from the others "we" to reveal the names and year of purchase?
We is not with you... We is a collective with other forummers who have been here for years and whom see what I see regarding property. We see how US wreaked havoc on the world in 2008, you see? We see low interest rates for a decade and beyond, you see? We see a viable red dot that is more valuable than prices seem to indicate, you see? You not happy, change it to "I". It's just academia.
There was once a long time ago, a sister shared her purchases with other forummers. She was even featured on TV or news buying property for her kids. In the end, she had to keep quiet for a long time.
There is nothing you can reverse engineer. You run your own track.
I prefer privacy, nothing about permission or what you imagine.
You don't see my point, then wait.
In a land where HUDC (something like ECs in the past) owners who have depleted 30-40 years of lease end up being multimillionaires, what evidence do you still need about the inherent value and worth of SG property? Where on this tiny red dot won't do well over time?
Understand your own needs and reach out for what meets your needs.
We is not with you... We is a collective with other forummers who have been here for years and whom see what I see regarding property. We see how US wreaked havoc on the world in 2008, you see? We see low interest rates for a decade and beyond, you see? We see a viable red dot that is more valuable than prices seem to indicate, you see? You not happy, change it to "I". It's just academia.
...
ahhh, nothing to do with reverse engineering, thats good. just privacy concerns. surely it does not hurt your privacy to reveal the name of the 1st property. you can even leave out the year purchased.
that 1st property and the astounding claims of yield that started off this whole exchange :)
The only thing that can slow the rise now is if Govt announces much higher GLS supply for 2H2017.
But in the short term, there will still be supply crunch coming right ahead.
Hi, your observation is similar to what property experts is saying now.(be it layman, agent or analyst). This seems to be the window period for enbloc property as developers are hungry for land to tide through their core business. Govt will step in when enbloc fever overheats. Just like CMs resulting in TDSR, there will always be a list of ready policies available.
My strategy has changed now. I no longer go for penny stock property. I am going for blue chip property. I am still keeping the property that pay for itself. ..........................
Even today I still can't believe that some singaporeans without absd refuse to buy. Compare to other places on earth...your property product is cheap in term of infrastructures...
Especially ocr.
Hi, your last sentence is probably the most reassuring advice to all prop investor in Sg. Met many citizens same as you over the past 7 years, many have been eyeing Sg property not only as investment but double up as a safe haven
Hi, your last sentence is probably the most reassuring advice to all prop investor in Sg. Met many citizens same as you over the past 7 years, many have been eyeing Sg property not only as investment but double up as a safe haven
Hi...not many people understand that Sg gov doesn't have to run deficit to fund for its infrastructure. So basically Singapore dollar doesn't need to depreciate. Other countries need to borrow money to build infrastructures, which create pressure on their currency. So even other countries has significant rise in price, the effect is easily negate by currency devaluation.
tonymontana
08-06-17, 19:30
Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment
Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million
Which one better?
should be Singapore.
tonymontana
08-06-17, 20:03
another prime piece of old real estate bought over:
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2017/6/154028/malaysian-developer-pays-72m-for-prime-site-near-orchard-road
Yes, his last sentence on infrastructure is power.
Where is TB?.. I miss his post.
The GLS and Enbloc prices are insane.
The positive factors are
1. Lowering of SSD : but technically, there is no impact
2. Pent-up Demand : people worries of missing the boats, and thinking market has already bottom
3. Developers' land bank is low
4. Foreign developers into the local market
I have yet to think of the fundamental to support the insane prices
1. net outflow of foreigners...a lot
2. TOPs - many
3. Rental yield ...getting very poor
4. Interest rate : getting higher
5. Economy growth : you know, I know
6. HDB is building a lot
7. GLS : going to be more
Your contribution please
This is an interesting thread started by Laguna.
The bullish market from 2009 to 2013 was a cause for concern with plenty of government's interventions during this period. Have the fundamentals change since then?
The US economy is on path for a recovery with the Fed starting to unwind the easing with gradual interest rates hike. China is on path to overtake the US as the economic power as the world come to term with it. The West as usual, will continue to want to 'contain' China with their vested interests. East Asia is more divided with many countries decide to go along with China. Singapore is caught between the shifting of economic powers and is still finding a balance how best to go forward.
The next PM will have to chart our new path because China is not US or Europe. The Chinese's culture is that if you are not my friend, you will eventually become my enemy. This culture dates back during the time of the Three Kingdoms.
At a micro level, our property market remains attractive to foreigners despite the ABSD because of MAS's gradual appreciation of the Sing dollar. However, with a slowing economy, the MAS may well have to flatten the curve going forward. Asean countries riding on the fortunes of China will likely to see their currencies on an appreciating path.
A soft landing promised by KBW saw property prices declining about 13% since 2013; averaging 3.25% p.a.. With the government’s determination to maintain a stable market, we can expect this soft landing to go on over the next few years. This cycle is expected to be long given all the challenges we are facing both internally and externally. A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
As what Plato said: “A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” If the numbers do not tally with our knowledge of the market, trust your wisdom and trust your knowledge.
Noble Group Ltd is a good example of people trusting numbers without good knowledge of the company and got burnt. Muddy Waters with good knowledge of the company opened up the can of wombs and all the good numbers came crashing down.
..... A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
.....
how does declining prices and depreciating values of aging HDB flats enable us to unlock the store value of aging flats?
The bullish market from 2009 to 2013 was a cause for concern with plenty of government's interventions during this period. Have the fundamentals change since then?
No, Money printing machine is still there and printing more.
The US economy is on path for a recovery with the Fed starting to unwind the easing with gradual interest rates hike. China is on path to overtake the US as the economic power as the world come to term with it. The West as usual, will continue to want to 'contain' China with their vested interests. East Asia is more divided with many countries decide to go along with China. Singapore is caught between the shifting of economic powers and is still finding a balance how best to go forward.
Singapore is the only one out in SouthEast Asia.
The next PM will have to chart our new path because China is not US or Europe. The Chinese's culture is that if you are not my friend, you will eventually become my enemy. This culture dates back during the time of the Three Kingdoms.
The Chinese never see Oversea Chinese as Chinese, even in main Land China.
At a micro level, our property market remains attractive to foreigners despite the ABSD because of MAS's gradual appreciation of the Sing dollar. However, with a slowing economy, the MAS may well have to flatten the curve going forward. Asean countries riding on the fortunes of China will likely to see their currencies on an appreciating path.
With all the Loan from China can only see deprecating path for Asean countries
A soft landing promised by KBW saw property prices declining about 13% since 2013; averaging 3.25% p.a.. With the government’s determination to maintain a stable market, we can expect this soft landing to go on over the next few years. This cycle is expected to be long given all the challenges we are facing both internally and externally. A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
Decline is more than 13% if you factor in inflation.
As what Plato said: “A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” If the numbers do not tally with our knowledge of the market, trust your wisdom and trust your knowledge.
Agree, number, statistic, news are facts and figures where the writer write what they want you to know, knowledge depend on what you have read and understand.
Noble Group Ltd is a good example of people trusting numbers without good knowledge of the company and got burnt. Muddy Waters with good knowledge of the company opened up the can of wombs and all the good numbers came crashing down.
Those who do accounting knows company never give the truth picture of their company.
Thanks Leeds for the analysis. I enjoyed reading it.
I can now rest assured the market will wait for me to build up capital for the last move. This one needs high capital, low LTV, plus tax. If miss the last one I can only get more foreign properties.
Not only Noble, holding Swiber, Ezra, Blumont, Liongold this kind also burnt jialat.
This is an interesting thread started by Laguna.
The bullish market from 2009 to 2013 was a cause for concern with plenty of government's interventions during this period. Have the fundamentals change since then?
The US economy is on path for a recovery with the Fed starting to unwind the easing with gradual interest rates hike. China is on path to overtake the US as the economic power as the world come to term with it. The West as usual, will continue to want to 'contain' China with their vested interests. East Asia is more divided with many countries decide to go along with China. Singapore is caught between the shifting of economic powers and is still finding a balance how best to go forward.
The next PM will have to chart our new path because China is not US or Europe. The Chinese's culture is that if you are not my friend, you will eventually become my enemy. This culture dates back during the time of the Three Kingdoms.
At a micro level, our property market remains attractive to foreigners despite the ABSD because of MAS's gradual appreciation of the Sing dollar. However, with a slowing economy, the MAS may well have to flatten the curve going forward. Asean countries riding on the fortunes of China will likely to see their currencies on an appreciating path.
A soft landing promised by KBW saw property prices declining about 13% since 2013; averaging 3.25% p.a.. With the government’s determination to maintain a stable market, we can expect this soft landing to go on over the next few years. This cycle is expected to be long given all the challenges we are facing both internally and externally. A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
As what Plato said: “A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” If the numbers do not tally with our knowledge of the market, trust your wisdom and trust your knowledge.
Noble Group Ltd is a good example of people trusting numbers without good knowledge of the company and got burnt. Muddy Waters with good knowledge of the company opened up the can of wombs and all the good numbers came crashing down.
Thumbs up for the french guy
Sg is the only country in asia without China burden.
While US and China are fighting on the rest of asia, Sg only need to sit out and wait for the winner to come through. Smart move.
Thumbs up for the french guy
Sg is the only country in asia without China burden.
While US and China are fighting on the rest of asia, Sg only need to sit out and wait for the winner to come through. Smart move.
Don't know how long can this last, LKY did a very good job but the future depend on whoever took over.
The rich will move and the poor will stay to complain.
hahaha... you are wrong
the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.
the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k
TOTAL = 575k
This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school
Hi indomie, in 2010 u predicted that IDR will drop more than 20%, resulting u placing ur bet on Sg? Very curious on ur decision making process at that point in time.
:D
Hi indomie, in 2010 u predicted that IDR will drop more than 20%, resulting u placing ur bet on Sg? Very curious on ur decision making process at that point in time.
:D
Hi...at that time is cheaper to buy sg property. High end jkt property required cash. I didn't have cash....hahaha.
But beside the obvious I knew there is a different in the quality of each country economy progress. Sg doesn't need to borrow money for building infrastructures. Its like choosing between buying mercedes paid in cash or buying toyota paid on loan. Most Singaporeans didn't realised by buying sg property they get mercedes paid in cash. Because Sg is not running deficit.
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