View Full Version : How I see Enbloc....too many already!!!!!
With the few successful enbloc recently, I am now reading news of many properties starting the enbloc processes. Perhaps now is in the region of 50 properties already...it is getting very very hot....
The formation of Sales Committee is simple, but the collection of >80% is not an easy task now. For those not yet collected 80%, everyone is looking at least 30% more than the agreed reserve price for the rest to sign. And finding a buyer to match the price would be even much more difficult.
The best time to collect the 80% is when the market is quiet or down, with more realistic reserve price and selling when the market has just pick up and hopefully can achieve 30% more than the reserve price.
Now, the developers know, there are so many enbloc going on, they can afford to wait and pick and choose.
The biggest competitor of enbloc of private properties, is the Government Land Sales. The process for GLS is clean cut and time to market is fast as compare to enbloc, which easier took about 10-15 months to clear especially when there is minority objection.
I was very interested to buy into enbloc properties and I did. And of course, I profited from them as well either by selling in the open market or with enbloc. Profit from enbloc was very substantial as compare to the individual unit market price.
The biggest mistake I made in buying enbloc properties is the over-estimation of the project bite size or project risks.
I spoke to one very bigger developer before on the potential enbloc of the older properties along Marine Parade area with full seaview. His reply as below..(please note this was before all the cooling measures especially the ABSD on unsold units.)
Indeed sea view units command a range of premium anywhere in the world.
I agree fully with you on the upside of the east coast. Imagine what price the HDB flats there will fetch if the government is prepared to privatize them! This in turn will fuel the transformation of this entire stretch into a world-class cosmopolitan area. A dream that can turn into reality over the next 50 years?
Bite size in an uncertain period is typically what developers go for, making it really challenging for anyone, even with partners, to make an offer for the large plots along the east coast. With the increasing trickle of city centre and city fringe older developments offering themselves, there are also attractive for developers. This makes it even more difficult for management to convince boards on investing in very chunky plots despite the attractiveness of such plots.
In short, those at the East Coast area, like Lagoon View (Sales Committee formed), Laguna Park (Sales Committee to be formed this month), Mandarin Garden, Neptune Court (not yet fully privatised), Bayshore, Bayshore Park etc etc with huge land size would have the problems of bite size, same go for Tampines Courts and even Pearl Bank. On top of this, all these land, the most is only about 20% - 30% with good unblocked seaview after clearing the tree line. So, what sort of additional premium for the seaview will command?
Now, look at all the HDB along Marine Parade road, do you think Govt would SERS them? Answer is on the wall. These are about 40-50 years old....I cannot imagine there were people paid $1m for a HDB 5-rooms with seaview there….all these 5-rooms are with small window to the seaview….wasting assets
It is definitely not the time to buy into enbloc properties even though I have the buy list….Perhaps, I might be able to catch the next cycle….
A side note…
For Tampines Courts, I read it the agent fee is 1% (or $17,000) an unit based on the reserve price and legal fee is 0.28%....whereas EunosVille is $5,000 flat agent fee…and lawyer fee is around 0.2%.
The market rate for agent fee should be around 0.3-0.4% but some comes with performance bonus….
It is no brainer that large estates with many units are difficult to enbloc, and those which have been successful are the exception than the norm............
Typically I won't buy any condo in estates >300 units.
With the few successful enbloc recently, I am now reading news of many properties starting the enbloc processes. Perhaps now is in the region of 50 properties already...it is getting very very hot....
The formation of Sales Committee is simple, but the collection of >80% is not an easy task now. For those not yet collected 80%, everyone is looking at least 30% more than the agreed reserve price for the rest to sign. And finding a buyer to match the price would be even much more difficult.
The best time to collect the 80% is when the market is quiet or down, with more realistic reserve price and selling when the market has just pick up and hopefully can achieve 30% more than the reserve price.
Now, the developers know, there are so many enbloc going on, they can afford to wait and pick and choose.
The biggest competitor of enbloc of private properties, is the Government Land Sales. The process for GLS is clean cut and time to market is fast as compare to enbloc, which easier took about 10-15 months to clear especially when there is minority objection.
I was very interested to buy into enbloc properties and I did. And of course, I profited from them as well either by selling in the open market or with enbloc. Profit from enbloc was very substantial as compare to the individual unit market price.
The biggest mistake I made in buying enbloc properties is the over-estimation of the project bite size or project risks.
I spoke to one very bigger developer before on the potential enbloc of the older properties along Marine Parade area with full seaview. His reply as below..(please note this was before all the cooling measures especially the ABSD on unsold units.)
Indeed sea view units command a range of premium anywhere in the world.
I agree fully with you on the upside of the east coast. Imagine what price the HDB flats there will fetch if the government is prepared to privatize them! This in turn will fuel the transformation of this entire stretch into a world-class cosmopolitan area. A dream that can turn into reality over the next 50 years?
Bite size in an uncertain period is typically what developers go for, making it really challenging for anyone, even with partners, to make an offer for the large plots along the east coast. With the increasing trickle of city centre and city fringe older developments offering themselves, there are also attractive for developers. This makes it even more difficult for management to convince boards on investing in very chunky plots despite the attractiveness of such plots.
In short, those at the East Coast area, like Lagoon View (Sales Committee formed), Laguna Park (Sales Committee to be formed this month), Mandarin Garden, Neptune Court (not yet fully privatised), Bayshore, Bayshore Park etc etc with huge land size would have the problems of bite size, same go for Tampines Courts and even Pearl Bank. On top of this, all these land, the most is only about 20% - 30% with good unblocked seaview after clearing the tree line. So, what sort of additional premium for the seaview will command?
Now, look at all the HDB along Marine Parade road, do you think Govt would SERS them? Answer is on the wall. These are about 40-50 years old....I cannot imagine there were people paid $1m for a HDB 5-rooms with seaview there….all these 5-rooms are with small window to the seaview….wasting assets
It is definitely not the time to buy into enbloc properties even though I have the buy list….Perhaps, I might be able to catch the next cycle….
A side note…
For Tampines Courts, I read it the agent fee is 1% (or $17,000) an unit based on the reserve price and legal fee is 0.28%....whereas EunosVille is $5,000 flat agent fee…and lawyer fee is around 0.2%.
The market rate for agent fee should be around 0.3-0.4% but some comes with performance bonus….
Miss this en-bloc in Apr 2011 bought Terrasse instead.
Hi xxx ,
Like to invite you to take a look at my website for the pictures of this unit http://www.robert.myweb.sg/69.
Owner is asking $1,280,000. Indicative valuation from bank is about $1,200,000. Age of the property is about 25years.
The Australian tenant just moved in last month, lease expiring only in February 2013. Very high rental at $3500 because the house is very expensively renovated not long ago, and conveniently located, with Marymount MRT station at doorstep. Plot ratio is 2.8.property developers seem to be eyeing this estate for collective sale.
Many thanks for your consideration,
Robert.
Pearl bank i count here and there, plot so small almost all utilized. Will be really tough to sell.
Mandarin gardens and bayshore park probably can build almost twice current utilization.
Laguna park is definitely a good buy, right next to future mrt is a big plus too.
Pearl bank i count here and there, plot so small almost all utilized. Will be really tough to sell.
Mandarin gardens and bayshore park probably can build almost twice current utilization.
Laguna park is definitely a good buy, right next to future mrt is a big plus too.
ya, I agreed with Laguna Park...but failed twice. At that time, there were no strong overseas interest.
Did a quick calculation
527 apartments
land 677,493.4sqf
plot ratio : 2.8
Say $2,200,000 per unit = $1,159m
Top up premium and DC charges Say $400m
Construction cost + stamp duty + financing cost etc $500 psf ppf
677,493 x 2.8 x $500 psf ppr = $948m
profit 5% pa for 4 years = 20% x (1159+400+948) = $501m
estimated selling price = 3008 / 677493x2.8 = min $1,600 psf
about 20-25% of units with seaview facing....so...for these unit is around $1,800 selling price.
Assessing the sale of Seaview Residences.....it would be very challenging to clear the units....of almost 1,896,980 gross floor area...ie >2000 units.
At the price of $1,600 and more, I better to buy freehold (perhaps <10 yo) around Parkway area.
Amber Woods
10-07-17, 09:19
Most en bloc potential sites are mostly in RCR and lesser in OCR. With prices in RCR and OCR only corrected by about 12%, buying into this potential sites now come with very high risk. You may even suffer financial loss after paying the SSD if the en bloc happen within 3 years after your purchase. You may well become the minority to oppose to the sale due to financial loss if sold.
Most en bloc potential sites are mostly in RCR and lesser in OCR. With prices in RCR and OCR only corrected by about 12%, buying into this potential sites now come with very high risk. You may even suffer financial loss after paying the SSD if the en bloc happen within 3 years after your purchase. You may well become the minority to oppose to the sale due to financial loss if sold.
If I am not wrong, no one shall suffer from financial loss from enbloc...excluding the interest on mortgage loans
The term "Financial Loss" exclude your renovation costs (not sure about ABSD, SSD, legal fees, agent fees etc though), so in reality is a person can still suffer REAL financial loss (despite the law).
If I am not wrong, no one shall suffer from financial loss from enbloc...excluding the interest on mortgage loans
The term "Financial Loss" exclude your renovation costs (not sure about ABSD, SSD, legal fees, agent fees etc though), so in reality is a person can still suffer REAL financial loss (despite the law).
I am very sure of the mortgage interest as there was a test case http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-property/singapore-property-news/couple-lose-fight-on-collective-sale/a/58334.
But not the ABSD and SSD, as there are no test case on it. But I believe, this is definitely a financial loss
Amber Woods
10-07-17, 11:11
Base on my understanding, financial loss for en bloc refers to direct cost of acquiring the property which include ABSD, SSD, standard stamp duty and conveyancing cost. It does not include mortgage loan interest, agent fee, renovation cost etc.
I am thinking of thinking HDB SERS...it there is people suffering financial loss....how is this to be handled?
Especially for those buying >$800,00
So, look like I am right to say, to solve this problem, or potential problem, is not to SERS all these
Amber Woods
12-07-17, 11:06
I am thinking of thinking HDB SERS...it there is people suffering financial loss....how is this to be handled?
Especially for those buying >$800,00
So, look like I am right to say, to solve this problem, or potential problem, is not to SERS all these
For SERS, the government provide a replacement unit with fresh 99-yr lease in a nearby area. Besides paying moving fee, the government also pay the difference if the old flat is bigger than the new flat.
So for those who bought resale at high price, they still get a new replacement unit. Should resale price declines, those who bought high actually benefited because if there is no SERS, these people will suffer even more financial losses.
Many people have the mis-conception that HDB SERS will let them earn more money............ They are just in their dream land...........
HDB SERS basically just compensate them market rate discounted for remaining land lease, their property size (yes that is it! - the older HDB flats are much bigger than new BTO HDB flats!).
So the truth is, with the money compensated from SERS, the same owner do not have enough money to buy another new BTO HDB flat of the same size (with fresh 99-years lease) in the same vicinity (simple as that!)
For SERS, the government provide a replacement unit with fresh 99-yr lease in a nearby area. Besides paying moving fee, the government also pay the difference if the old flat is bigger than the new flat.
So for those who bought resale at high price, they still get a new replacement unit. Should resale price declines, those who bought high actually benefited because if there is no SERS, these people will suffer even more financial losses.
Amber Woods
12-07-17, 11:20
Many people have the mis-conception that HDB SERS will let them earn more money............ They are just in their dream land...........
HDB SERS basically just compensate them market rate discounted for remaining land lease, their property size (yes that is it! - the older HDB flats are much bigger than new BTO HDB flats!).
So the truth is, with the money compensated from SERS, the same owner do not have enough money to buy another new BTO HDB flat of the same size (with fresh 99-years lease) in the same vicinity (simple as that!)
The intent of SERS is to have a replacement unit in the nearby area. Why do you want to get cash from the government and then try to buy a replacement unit in the nearby area?
Alternatively, you can get select for a bigger replacement unit (say from 4 rm to 5 rm) and pay the difference if the new 4-rm flat is smaller than the old one.
That is because some people here are giving the impression that HDB SERS are like private property's enbloc (which we know are NOT TRUE!).
Private properties enbloc also has 2 types: 1 type for FH which you can fully buy another NEW almost the same replacement unit (may be pay 10% more) and the other type for LH property (which is like HDB SERS) where you need to top up a lot more money (like 40% or more) to buy another NEW almost the same replacement unit!
The intent of SERS is to have a replacement unit in the nearby area. Why do you want to get cash from the government and then try to buy a replacement unit in the nearby area?
Alternatively, you can get select for a bigger replacement unit (say from 4 rm to 5 rm) and pay the difference if the new 4-rm flat is smaller than the old one.
Amber Woods
12-07-17, 12:35
That is because some people here are giving the impression that HDB SERS are like private property's enbloc (which we know are NOT TRUE!).
Private properties enbloc also has 2 types: 1 type for FH which you can fully buy another NEW almost the same replacement unit (may be pay 10% more) and the other type for LH property (which is like HDB SERS) where you need to top up a lot more money (like 40% or more) to buy another NEW almost the same replacement unit!
SERS is not the same as private en bloc.
SERS is for replacement unit - old unit in exchange for new unit with fresh new lease.
For private en bloc, it only benefit investors since investors only care about profit. For owner occupiers, they usually cannot find similar replacement unit within the same vicinity with the money they receive from the en bloc sale. They either move further away to cheaper area or downgrade to HDB flat and keep the money for business or retirement.
Your statement:
"For private en bloc, it only benefit investors since investors only care about profit. For owner occupiers, they usually cannot find similar replacement unit within the same vicinity with the money they receive from the en bloc sale. They either move further away to cheaper area or downgrade to HDB flat and keep the money for business or retirement."
is only true for leasehold properties!
That is because they want to exchange their leasehold properties with like only 50 years remaining lease left for another with more years of lease (e.g. buy a new one with 99 years lease)! Obviously they have to top up money to buy the additional 49 years land lease!
For freehold property owners, they basically is selling an aging freehold that is may be 50 years old (and having to spend more money on maintenance) and buy another new freehold at 10% premium (just like paying 10% for renovation costs) or buying another older freehold and spend 10% on renovation! Thus, both investors and owners all benefit!
SERS is not the same as private en bloc.
SERS is for replacement unit - old unit in exchange for new unit with fresh new lease.
For private en bloc, it only benefit investors since investors only care about profit. For owner occupiers, they usually cannot find similar replacement unit within the same vicinity with the money they receive from the en bloc sale. They either move further away to cheaper area or downgrade to HDB flat and keep the money for business or retirement.
Amber Woods
12-07-17, 13:02
Your statement:
"For private en bloc, it only benefit investors since investors only care about profit. For owner occupiers, they usually cannot find similar replacement unit within the same vicinity with the money they receive from the en bloc sale. They either move further away to cheaper area or downgrade to HDB flat and keep the money for business or retirement."
is only true for leasehold properties!
That is because they want to exchange their leasehold properties with like only 50 years remaining lease left for another with more years of lease (e.g. buy a new one with 99 years lease)! Obviously they have to top up money to buy the additional 49 years land lease!
For freehold property owners, they basically is selling an aging freehold that is may be 50 years old (and having to spend more money on maintenance) and buy another new freehold at 10% premium (just like paying 10% for renovation costs) or buying another older freehold and spend 10% on renovation! Thus, both investors and owners all benefit!
The premium for en bloc sale be it FH or LH is now no more than 40% or less as compared with two decades ago where the premium can be as high as 100%.
For most FH en bloc sale, the true is the money from en bloc sale is probably only sufficient to buy a similar age FH (but bigger) unit in the same vicinity with little left to spare. To buy new FH unit in the same vicinity, you need to top up a lot more. This is because developers are paying high prices for the land to build smaller units.
As for LH, the challenges are the same as FH land except that the price of the land reflects its LH status and hence not as high as FH land in the same vicinity.
The premium for en bloc sale be it FH or LH is now no more than 40% or less as compared with two decades ago where the premium can be as high as 100%.
I have one property, with 60 years lease to run...just enbloc with 76% premium over individual unit....
and it is at almost 30% more than valuation at time of tender closing.
I can use the proceed to buy a similar size 10 yo FH property OCR
Nothing beats actual examples rather than "figures" or "facts" built on thin air by those who want to buy but want it lower.
I have one property, with 60 years lease to run...just enbloc with 76% premium over individual unit....
and it is at almost 30% more than valuation at time of tender closing.
I can use the proceed to buy a similar size 10 yo FH property OCR
Nothing beats actual examples rather than "figures" or "facts" built on thin air by those who want to buy but want it lower.
You mean I am cooking the numbers? why should I?
I am not buying as I have enough
PropVestor
12-07-17, 14:36
Question:
Developer wants to buy FH 30+ year old site. Total 65 units but collectively, owners cannot get 80% signature. 70% at most.
One developer offers to buy over these 70% units at 10% discount over last reserved price (based on unit size of course).
Each unit is supposed to get about $5.2mil based on 10% discount. Worth it?
Question:
Developer wants to buy FH 30+ year old site. Total 65 units but collectively, owners cannot get 80% signature. 70% at most.
One developer offers to buy over these 70% units at 10% discount over last reserved price (based on unit size of course).
Each unit is supposed to get about $5.2mil based on 10% discount. Worth it?
Well, it depends on when was the last reserved price taken...before or after the recent run-up and how much was the premium ur talking about
If the last reserved price is after the recent run-up, then it would be under-valued...
nevertheless, I believe nobody would accept a lower price...
These are 1-off event because of 1 or more of the following reasons:
1) the land has plot ratio increased (unlikely again in future).
2) The developers take into consideration they can have additional 10% balcony space to sell (which is free to them courtesy of URA/BCA rules and which are not included in your current unit and which developers don't have to buy from you).
3) The developers can sell more "space" to you by building private lift lobby (sell new buyers the private lift lobby space when in the past the developers incur GFA from building older estates with common corridors to your door step and which you don't need to pay).
4) The developers can sell more "space" by building super large air-con ledge (which is probably non-existent in older estates and developers don't have to pay you for that).
So in conclusion: The developers pay you less money and can sell for more money for a very good profit!
However, in normal case and in future, 99-years leasehold properties will NO longer have such decent enbloc deals! Many 99-years leasehold estates may NOT even get enbloc when developers have a lot of choice!
I have one property, with 60 years lease to run...just enbloc with 76% premium over individual unit....
and it is at almost 30% more than valuation at time of tender closing.
I can use the proceed to buy a similar size 10 yo FH property OCR
You mean I am cooking the numbers? why should I?
I am not buying as I have enough
No lah, I meant those of us who have real numbers based on actual transactions. Your case is definitely real.
These are 1-off event
I bought a few properties with enbloc potential and found that the chance of having the deals sealed is slim.
So, rather satisfied as least have one done....so, at least have 1-off event in my life....
In fact, rather exciting at time of closing till the result was made known two days later....
I know this very well - Not because of my experience but rather, I have many friends playing this enbloc game and the conclusion is same as you:
Many bought many old "enbloc potential" properties, but end up that they either have only 1 or even NONE successfully enbloc!
Meanwhile, these properties have much lower resale price appreciation and much lower rental income compared to those so-called "non-enbloc potential" properties nearby.
I bought a few properties with enbloc potential and found that the chance of having the deals sealed is slim.
So, rather satisfied as least have one done....so, at least have 1-off event in my life....
In fact, rather exciting at time of closing till the result was made known two days later....
I know this very well - Not because of my experience but rather, I have many friends playing this enbloc game and the conclusion is same as you:
Many bought many old "enbloc potential" properties, but end up that they either have only 1 or even NONE successfully enbloc!
Meanwhile, these properties have much lower resale price appreciation and much lower rental income compared to those so-called "non-enbloc potential" properties nearby.
The worst is non-ending maintenance and repairs....I have withdrawn from this game already...it is time to enjoy life...
Amber Woods
12-07-17, 15:35
I have one property, with 60 years lease to run...just enbloc with 76% premium over individual unit....
and it is at almost 30% more than valuation at time of tender closing.
I can use the proceed to buy a similar size 10 yo FH property OCR
This is more of an exception rather than the rule.
Sites that have good potential had mostly been sold during the last 15 years especially FH sites.
For HUDC, the premium can be attractive because these development usually were not built to their potential.
This is more of an exception rather than the rule.
Sites that have good potential had mostly been sold during the last 15 years especially FH sites.
For HUDC, the premium can be attractive because these development usually were not built to their potential.
I gave up....as the one I am eyeing at has no seller....yes...it is a HUDC....
PropVestor
12-07-17, 16:34
I bought a few properties with enbloc potential and found that the chance of having the deals sealed is slim.
So, rather satisfied as least have one done....so, at least have 1-off event in my life....
In fact, rather exciting at time of closing till the result was made known two days later....
I always think EB is akin to a windfall. At least you succeeded once. Not many are like you.
I do have a friend who had EB twice. He did not have to work for money before the age of 50. Now lives in a 3-storey terrace in the East.
Some folks just have all the luck I supposed.
Is a matter of time and resetting of the rules when the time comes. The only thing we cannot predict, is when the rules are adjusted to create sites with potential. Remember the long term target of SG.
This is more of an exception rather than the rule.
Sites that have good potential had mostly been sold during the last 15 years especially FH sites.
For HUDC, the premium can be attractive because these development usually were not built to their potential.
He must have done a lot of background work and was able to act when opportunities avail. Definitely not a waiter.
I always think EB is akin to a windfall. At least you succeeded once. Not many are like you.
I do have a friend who had EB twice. He did not have to work for money before the age of 50. Now lives in a 3-storey terrace in the East.
Some folks just have all the luck I supposed.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.