View Full Version : property price drop due to recession ?
Concern on this recession , would private properties drop back to 10 years ago price? May I know your opinion? thx.
wah..if really drop then good opportunity to enter market...
I wish too, I still hoping for good buy. As I miss a lot of opportunities in the past. zzz
Are you holding any property?
What is your property price 10 years ago and now?
This should answer your question.
https://scontent.fsin4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/96512889_10157526327002061_6380921616179658752_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=EA_e0aU2sB4AX_2AZEE&_nc_ht=scontent.fsin4-1.fna&oh=e4ceafc8c32ac1837fb2c6e324a3d4e3&oe=5EE0F6DE
This is just 1 Agency, wait for URA update please do not ask AssUme for Update.
https://scontent.fsin4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/96512889_10157526327002061_6380921616179658752_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=EA_e0aU2sB4AX_2AZEE&_nc_ht=scontent.fsin4-1.fna&oh=e4ceafc8c32ac1837fb2c6e324a3d4e3&oe=5EE0F6DE
This is just 1 Agency, wait for URA update please do not ask AssUme for Update.
Singaporeans very rich hor...
For those who know the facts and figures which is provided by the government they know Singaporean very rich.
But to those who like to AssUme they will compare among themselves and conclude property price too high and Singaporean cannot afford.
For those who know the facts and figures which is provided by the government they know Singaporean very rich.
But to those who like to AssUme they will compare among themselves and conclude property price too high and Singaporean cannot afford.
What are these facts and figures? Current or outdated? If you don't like people to assume, then you need to state clearly, instead of acting like some ancient guru sitting on top of a mountain. Who are you trying to impress?
Btw, govt also provided facts and figures for economy and unemployment after the effects of Covid-19.
Domino effect will ripple thru the large middle class of Singapore. And this is the socioeconomic segment at which these mass market condos are targeted.
PropVestor
14-05-20, 13:49
There is evidence based on STI and private property have correlation.
If you use all the data price points released by URA (pte property including landed) from the 90s and plot it to today.
And superimpose the STI benchmark data, you will realise 2 things.
1) private property and HDB prices have strong correlation. (0.8+)
2) STI index and private property have some correlation. (0.9+)
Note: Using Pearson Correlation Co-efficient of -1 to 1 range where 1 is the highest or the strongest correlation.
Source: REITs Screener
In layman terms, there is a lagging effect of the pte property prices against the STI index by up to 6-9 months.
In short, if we see the bottom of the STI index say this year in Nov. By 2021, mid year, you will see a price correction.
Thanks to the government budget measures and the loan relief by banks, there is not much effect on job security and property market as of now. The effect will come if things don't improve after the relief measures are gone. Unlike the last recession in 2008, this time is highly calibrated by the governments of the world to strike a balance between economic activity and preventing the virus spreading.
Most probably will be a gradual decline in price or a stagnation for some time.
PropVestor
14-05-20, 15:04
Having 60% of my wealth in hard assets, I cannot say I feel completely fine with what is going on.
1) Will my tenant ask for rental reversions during their tenancy period now to next year.
2) Existing just completed ones like PPR for me, what is the asking rental rate today. Seems like a race to the bottom. Some key collection are stuck but you got to pay maintenance regardless.
3) Loan refinancing due to interest rate cuts to reduce outlay. I refinanced 2 of my properties these 2 months. Reduction of 0.5 to 0.7% in interest PA.
4) Not looking at liquidating anything yet coz we know prices will take a beating and its coming in the next 2-3 quarters.
Monetary policy will run out of ammo with each passing day. Even Fed Powell hinted on Congress to put in fiscal policy moves (13th May 2020).
I do not believe in negative interest rates just as I do not believe in unlimited QE, it has to stop at some point.
5) REITs and other dividend investment not drawing that attractive yields due to dividend cuts and re-basing.
Locally, my personal view is that with CMs, this is actually saving some of us from over gearing before this CV-19 crisis but that does not put us all away from the meltdown. It just puts a longer distance towards the pit. If businesses do not do well (not sure you guys run essential businesses, I don't), one of these properties will have to go. I hope this is not the case but with crisis come opportunity. Things are at a bargain (not stocks, not yet) if you wait a little longer. Hopefully not one of mine. :)
All the best,
PropVestor
Question here is property back to the price in 2009/ 2010
https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property
There was a short crash with V-recovery then. So, if you are asking about the bottom of 2009, the answer is NO.
A few of us managed to catch the bottom that time... $600 - 700 psf in D15 brand new freehold (now there is MRT coming just next to it). There is no way you can get that anymore.
There are many reasons, lazy to explain since not asked
Hardly visit this place nowadays
Noted so many newbie asking one line question and expect free advice.
There is evidence-based on STI and private property has correlation.
If you use all the data price points released by URA (Pte property including landed) from the 90s and plot it to today.
And superimpose the STI benchmark data, you will realize 2 things.
1) private property and HDB prices have a strong correlation. (0.8+)
2) STI index and private property have some correlation. (0.9+)
Note: Using Pearson Correlation Co-efficient of -1 to 1 range where 1 is the highest or the strongest correlation.
Source: REITs Screener
In layman terms, there is a lagging effect of the pte property prices against the STI index by up to 6-9 months.
In short, if we see the bottom of the STI index say this year in Nov. By 2021, mid-year, you will see a price correction.
Agree there was a correlation before 2009 but after 2009 the correlation no more applies.
Are you referring to the correlation till 2009 and use it to apply to 2021.
Hardly visit this place nowadays
Noted so many newbies asking a one-line question and expect free advice.
Hope Newbies will learn after a few question worst is Newbies who like to AssUme without facts and figures.
Having 60% of my wealth in hard assets, I cannot say I feel completely fine with what is going on.
1) Will my tenant ask for rental reversions during their tenancy period now to next year.
Same apply to tenant when they got their income increase will they increase the rental
2) Existing just completed ones like PPR for me, what is the asking rental rate today. It seems like a race to the bottom. Some key collection is stuck but you got to pay maintenance regardless.
Defer and repricing or refinance will help reduce the pressure.
3) Loan refinancing due to interest rate cuts to reduce outlay. I refinanced 2 of my properties these 2 months. Reduction of 0.5 to 0.7% in interest PA.
Interest rate will be low for a few years
4) Not looking at liquidating anything yet coz we know prices will take a beating and its coming in the next 2-3 quarters.
Monetary policy will run out of ammo QE unlimitedwith each passing day. Even Fed Powell hinted on Congress to put in fiscal policy moves (13th May 2020).
I do not believe in negative interest rates just as I do not believe in unlimited QE, it has to stop at some point.since 1973 the creation of fiat money there is no turning back
5) REITs and other dividend investment not drawing that attractive yields due to dividend cuts and re-basing.
Locally, my personal view is that with CMs, this is actually saving some of us from over gearing before this CV-19 crisis but that does not put us all away from the meltdown. It just puts a longer distance towards the pit. If businesses do not do well (not sure you guys run essential businesses, I don't), one of these properties will have to go. I hope this is not the case but with crisis come opportunity. Things are at a bargain (not stocks, not yet) if you wait a little longer. Hopefully not one of mine. you are not alone
All the best,
PropVestor
https://sg.tepcdn.com/public/usr/dsc14e/9de914-Chart2.jpg
With this announcement, “the government has shown it is ready to step in with measures, albeit temporary, to ease any potential turbulence and to help investors and developers who may be facing hardships”, says Leong. “Perhaps more could be done to help, but the unprecedented liquidity in the market and low-interest-rate environment that we are in right now will be points of consideration for the government with regard to whether cooling measures will be eased,” he adds.
Post-Covid-19 recovery in private residential market expected to be similar to post-H1N1 rally
https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/post-covid-19-recovery-private-residential-market-expected-be-similar-post-h1n1-rally?utm_source=Whatsapp&utm_medium=news
With Facts and Figures not AssUme or some dumpling ground student survey.
If you cannot buy that does not mean all Singaporeans also cannot buy. Same goes to if you need to sell that does not mean all Singaporean need to sell.
Chow XiaoLing
22-05-20, 21:13
What goes up must come down for sure! Is just a matter of time only!
What goes up must come down for sure! Is just a matter of time only!
True, and not true, but may not come down at all or take 5 years or more to come down as i think no one can time the market...LOL
Hope you are young enough to see the price to come down, I don't think I can see for the next 30 years.
Steve if price would drop back to 10 years ago. It will be a chaos from the whole market!!! Not possible! My opinion is always start to invest early at your affordability.
If price dropped typical buyer will wanna wait for it to drop further. In the end never buy. LOL
Concern on this recession , would private properties drop back to 10 years ago price? May I know your opinion? thx.
Wasn't this expected? Right time to enter, I feel
Singapore will soon be the ONLY Pan-Asian Financial Centre, after HK is destroyed.
Just consider that.
You can use HK property prices before the turmoil, as a gauge.
Wasn't this expected? Right time to enter, I feel
Right time to enter ? you mean now?
Tabitha Loo
28-05-20, 14:39
think as long as you buy within what you can afford is the safest, no need to be afraid if market trend down after you bought
depends on your concern to this question, are you looking to buy or sell?
Depends on your needs. Ask yourself this question!!!
Samuel Tang
03-06-20, 09:59
you may refer back to Sars period, how did prices fare? But in my opinion, if you holding a 99 years property and reaching 20+ years, best to sell fast!
Yes buy now!! Don't wait anymore!! : P
See this period as opportunities rather than crisis !!!! Stay safe at home! :P P
who dare to buy during recession unless the price is value buy
shininglight
23-07-20, 13:10
In my opinion, everything is all about demand and supply.
The government has cut supply of new land parcels to build homes, most of the current new launches have sold 40% or more and they have time to sell until after they TOP. There is not expected to be many new launches in 2nd half of 2020 and in 2021.
If you are looking to buy a property, below is an article on how COVID may affect your home buying decision making.
https://www.latestprojectlaunch.com/singaporepropertynews/how-does-covid-affect-home-buyers-decision-making-process-when-choosing-their-dream-home
nevereatrice
23-07-20, 15:52
There is not expected to be many new launches in 2nd half of 2020 and in 2021.
Doesn't matter as there won't be demand either.
Many people expect property prices to decline, but here (in Indonesia) it is unlikely that property prices will fall in the next few years. However, the down payment for the home ownership credit seems to have decreased for the Grand Nusa Indah (https://www.smc-property.com/grand-nusa-indah) Cileungsi housing unit.
I wish too, I still hoping for good buy. As I miss a lot of opportunities in the past. zzz
lets have a open discussion on this topic 90077854
tonymontana
16-01-21, 18:23
Having 60% of my wealth in hard assets, I cannot say I feel completely fine with what is going on.
1) Will my tenant ask for rental reversions during their tenancy period now to next year.
2) Existing just completed ones like PPR for me, what is the asking rental rate today. Seems like a race to the bottom. Some key collection are stuck but you got to pay maintenance regardless.
3) Loan refinancing due to interest rate cuts to reduce outlay. I refinanced 2 of my properties these 2 months. Reduction of 0.5 to 0.7% in interest PA.
4) Not looking at liquidating anything yet coz we know prices will take a beating and its coming in the next 2-3 quarters.
Monetary policy will run out of ammo with each passing day. Even Fed Powell hinted on Congress to put in fiscal policy moves (13th May 2020).
I do not believe in negative interest rates just as I do not believe in unlimited QE, it has to stop at some point.
5) REITs and other dividend investment not drawing that attractive yields due to dividend cuts and re-basing.
Locally, my personal view is that with CMs, this is actually saving some of us from over gearing before this CV-19 crisis but that does not put us all away from the meltdown. It just puts a longer distance towards the pit. If businesses do not do well (not sure you guys run essential businesses, I don't), one of these properties will have to go. I hope this is not the case but with crisis come opportunity. Things are at a bargain (not stocks, not yet) if you wait a little longer. Hopefully not one of mine. :)
All the best,
PropVestor
Nice to see some of you (and Archachon) is still around! Well, well , well. What a crazy chaotic year. In march we saw lockdowns, stock market meltdown, crazy donald blaming china, and it was all doom and gloom. Fast forward 2021 now, looks like (1) property is still going up (2) stock market STI back to almost pre CV level.
Seriously, didn't think it was going to be like this. There was some worry in the beginning when the pandemic really hit. But we stayed the course. Our property valuations are stable. Our tenants are still paying rent, we didn't have to cut our rental (cos our units are not luxury units but "basic plain vanilla" properties.).
We were getting ready to look for bargains, expecting property to drop 10-15% in the 2 or 3 years since the covid19 lockdown. I guess that's not happening , from the look of it.
Overall, I have to say -- Well done, Singapore -- for weathering the storm so far. Touchwood, vaccine will bring down the raging fire globally.
Have a good recovery year everyone!!!
tonymontana
16-01-21, 18:40
There is evidence-based on STI and private property has correlation.
If you use all the data price points released by URA (Pte property including landed) from the 90s and plot it to today.
And superimpose the STI benchmark data, you will realize 2 things.
1) private property and HDB prices have a strong correlation. (0.8+)
2) STI index and private property have some correlation. (0.9+)
Note: Using Pearson Correlation Co-efficient of -1 to 1 range where 1 is the highest or the strongest correlation.
Source: REITs Screener
In layman terms, there is a lagging effect of the pte property prices against the STI index by up to 6-9 months.
In short, if we see the bottom of the STI index say this year in Nov. By 2021, mid-year, you will see a price correction.
Agree there was a correlation before 2009 but after 2009 the correlation no more applies.
Are you referring to the correlation till 2009 and use it to apply to 2021.
Again, interesting to see how things panned out vs forecast. Bottom for STI was April May. I put in some money in March.
Property? Was targetting a property this year... told my wife it's an opportunity. Dang, it actualy went up 5% since last year.
Oh well
PropVestor
18-01-21, 12:58
Good to see you around too bro.
For those in the market for property, stocks are running low with a healthy take up, build times are longer. Foreigners cannot come in to bid land for the time being as I did not see alot of land sales activity YET.
For those vested, like what you said, stay vested. Things are looking brighter than ever for hard assets as the dollar tanks, interest rates go down alot longer.....Holding power is the key.
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