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J-Dog
12-01-09, 17:38
One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

- 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
- for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
- Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
- Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
- towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
- prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
St. Regis - $1,200 psf
Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
Rivergate - $800 psf
MBR - $1,000 psf
Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon.. :doh:

myxzyden
12-01-09, 17:57
where you got this info?
is there a link or something?

gfoo
12-01-09, 18:19
Consistent with what i heard from my banker friend today as well, esp the sentosa cove bit - they are already asking for top-ups

http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=42326&posted=1#post42326

yoonheng
12-01-09, 20:39
There are many factor dertermine the market price, I don't believe any human being can predict the market price , except God. However , we can dertermine the trend. The good news is the market trend is going down and is not going to recover anytime soon.


One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

- 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
- for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
- Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
- Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
- towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
- prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
St. Regis - $1,200 psf
Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
Rivergate - $800 psf
MBR - $1,000 psf
Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon.. :doh:

isaaclim
12-01-09, 21:22
I think that banker should have lost his axx from stocks market investment which cause him to make such a pessimistic prediction.

isaaclim
12-01-09, 21:40
In fact, they is a problem in their analyst.
Among 40k units, only 14k is going for TOP in this year. And only 10k units under DPS.

The question is how many of the 10k units is not able to get loan and how many of the 4k is going to have a recall. Well nobody know.

Personally, i don't believe it would be more then 30% for these two figures. Why? Because most of them are CHINESE! Not agree? Go ask your dad this question:

"Dad, I managed to safe 200k within this few year. What do you think for buying a 1 mil condo?"

You know what your dad will reply? "Siao are you!"

J-Dog
12-01-09, 21:54
This is not pessimistic my friend , this is reality . I personally think it will be far worth then this. Want proof ? Look at the Azure at Sentoza , TOPed 4 month ago and up till now it is a Ghost project , ppl unable to rent out even at 5k for 1700sft , how bad is this ??? Every window has signs "For rent/Sale" maintanance is crazy overpriced which even if the owner will rent at 5k will get only 4k on hands - property tax , agent commie so he gets next to nothing !
This is reallity what do you think will happen to those 40,000 units when ppl can not rent them out ??? Do you really think the price will go up ??

I wish as much the price to go up , but it will take 4 or 5 painful and slow years to recover at least. I have few units in Central area even I thought I bought them cheap , they are down from 25 to 60% already.

The guy talks sence , the government has to do something , they are investing money in useless american T-Bills at lousy 3% where the Americans will print money like there is no tomorrow and devealue US currency by end of 09' .. and Singaporean government gets probably - 5-7% negative .. So I do not understand why dont intervene and boost Singaporean local economy using our tax payers money? They should at first abolish property taxes and stamp duty so buyers will get more confident and prices reverse. Also , lower more interest rate and start loaning the money to home buyers. It would make sence . But if not we all as a country on the verse of bunkrupcy .. We will all loose jobs , have no income to service loans e.t.c. Very sad indeed . This year going to be a year from hell for many of us. :(

august
12-01-09, 22:00
Bankers are exaggerating for their own benefits. Asking for government to bail them out.

gfoo
12-01-09, 23:14
all the govt needs to do - and this is very plausible - is to introduce bankruptcy protection laws ala the US. Once this happens, just stand back and see the flood of flipvestors dumping units back into the market.

40,000 new units entering the market + god knows how much more reintroduced into the pool with subsales. Disappearing foreign buyers - and they expect locals to soak up a potential 100,000 units over 2 years? wait long long.

Based on organic appreciation without the crazy excesses of the past few year, property prices today should be 10% above 2006 levels in a normal/stable economy. Now that we are projecting a combine 08/09 recession of -8% combined, rational prices should be about -8% to -10% 2006 levels. We are hardly there yet.

isaaclim
13-01-09, 00:07
I do agree that future does not right very bright. But if your reasoning is base on 40k units, then you are just not a genuine investor and just trying to talk down the market further such that you can benefit from it.

Anyway market is not going to move up or down base on our discussion here. It all base on REAL facts.

focus
13-01-09, 01:47
It's true ..
I asked a RM how much I can loan ..
he told me only 70% LTV and he can see that what I have in the bank account is more than twice the amount I want to loan..

Anyway, if Sentosa units are going down to 700psf .. I would buy one to stay ... :) But then..hmm... wouldn't those landed properties in non-prime estate be going down further till 300-400psf??

gfoo
13-01-09, 08:58
I do agree that future does not right very bright. But if your reasoning is base on 40k units, then you are just not a genuine investor and just trying to talk down the market further such that you can benefit from it.

Anyway market is not going to move up or down base on our discussion here. It all base on REAL facts.
Respectfully, I think you're not getting the point. It's all about demand and supply. Let's look at simple statistics from MOM and URA. (3Q08)

There are 1.8m citizens and PRs gainfully employed in Singapore. There are another 1m foreigners employed in Singapore, incl your foreign construction and production line worker.
Excluding work-permit foreign workers there are approx 143,000 EP/S-Pass/others workers
There are a total of 260,000 private residential units in Singapore, out of which 14,000 are vacant
There are 66,000 new private residential units in the pipeline, bringing the total to 80,000
There are a total of 1.46m HDB flats as of March 2008
HDB estimates 82% of the population stays in flats, or about 1.5m resident employed. That leaves 300,000 resident employed to buy private residential
If we assume that in a typical family unit, there is 1 working husband and 1 working wife, that means there are 150,000 family units that demand private residentialThus at any one time:
260,000 total private supply (current)
322,000 total private supply (2009-2012)
293,000 total local + foreign talent demand
143,000 total foreign talent/corporate demand
150,000 total local private demand
30,000 minimum oversupply for local consumption (assuming that every available FT earning more than $2,500 buys 1 private unit per individual, which is not likely)These figures were primarily for the period ended 31 March 2008, which is still considered pre-recession times.

Assuming that EVERY SINGLE foreign talent and 2pax local family unit buys a private, we STILL have an oversupply of 30,000 - and that is in good times. Imagine what happens in bad times.

If we assume that at least 2 FTs stay in 1 private unit on average, our oversupply goes up 100,000.

This means that a lot of Singaporeans have bought over and above their own stay needs for investment, flipping etc. And that means a lot of people will start dumping soon else they will be stuck, esp with the exodus of foreign talent.

august
13-01-09, 09:24
Some of the numbers maay not correlate to me.

Respectfully, I think you're not getting the point. It's all about demand and supply. Let's look at simple statistics from MOM and URA. (3Q08)

There are 1.8m citizens and PRs gainfully employed in Singapore. There are another 1m foreigners employed in Singapore, incl your foreign construction and production line worker.
Excluding work-permit foreign workers there are approx 143,000 EP/S-Pass/others workers
There are a total of 260,000 private residential units in Singapore, out of which 14,000 are vacant
There are 66,000 new private residential units in the pipeline, bringing the total to 80,000
There are a total of 1.46m HDB flats as of March 2008
HDB estimates 82% of the population stays in flats, or about 1.5m resident employed. That leaves 300,000 resident employed to buy private residential
If we assume that in a typical family unit, there is 1 working husband and 1 working wife, that means there are 150,000 family units that demand private residentialThus at any one time:

260,000 total private supply (current)
322,000 total private supply (2009-2012)
293,000 total local + foreign talent demand
143,000 total foreign talent/corporate demand
150,000 total local private demand
30,000 minimum oversupply for local consumption (assuming that every available FT earning more than $2,500 buys 1 private unit per individual, which is not likely)
Number of gainfully employed citizens and PRs should be at least 2.2m.

Number of residents that can buy private residential is more than 300,000 because HDB owners can buy private residences and vice versa.

Otherwise the other numbers are pretty solid. :)

gfoo
13-01-09, 09:43
My figures are already rather generous. According to MOM, in 2007, the percentage of our PMETs to total resident workforce is 49% - these are the folks that can afford private. The 300000 can potentially be lower and i suspect it is

J-Dog
13-01-09, 10:00
Oh heck, we are all screwed :((((

http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/3/1/12/f_screwyoum_9cd0d0e.jpg

gfoo
13-01-09, 10:06
Oh heck, we are all screwed :((((

http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/3/1/12/f_screwyoum_9cd0d0e.jpg

I'm scared shitless too. I'm not even making any qualitative assumptions or predictions. This is pure stats and E-Maths

Unreg
13-01-09, 10:26
Seriously, despite whether the above property numbers are correct or not, if bank are so strict on loan, then many people are not able to buy property. And will hurt the property prices

repanse71
13-01-09, 11:05
It's true ..
I asked a RM how much I can loan ..
he told me only 70% LTV and he can see that what I have in the bank account is more than twice the amount I want to loan..

Anyway, if Sentosa units are going down to 700psf .. I would buy one to stay ... :) But then..hmm... wouldn't those landed properties in non-prime estate be going down further till 300-400psf??

This is how rumour starts.

Banks generally do scenario planning for various purpose - business forcast, downturn preparation and stress test.

The scenario described above are most probably stress test with highly overblown gloom and doom conditions. I believe this stress is required by MAS to test local bank's ability to handle a crisis.

If a family with ~10k monthly income and perhaps only ~1-2k current loan obligation (probably a car), this family could get easily get a 30yr $500k loan at 80% LTV.

regards

blackswan
13-01-09, 11:15
For me, after setting foot to take a walk around the vacinity that I want, discover that the supply coming onstream is massive.

Maryland (dun know how manay units originally) now become Esta and Amber which in total have around 900+ units. Believe Maryland have less than half (correct me if I am wrong though).

St Patrick View (42 units) now become St Patrick Residences (142 units).

A few years back, there's lots of empty spaces around United Square, now VIVA, Lucida and others development are moving full steam ahead. At the back there's Infinia, Lincoln Modern and many others.

But demand is plunging fast at the same time. Those working in the finance industry should know when tons of your Ang Mo colleagues was given the boxes and gone before you can say bye bye.

Thus decided to stop house hunting and wait patiently for Auction sales in 6 months time instead.

gfoo
13-01-09, 12:31
just got an email back from bankers whom i submitted a valuation list for property price indicators, even before i submit any of my income docs.

Beacon Edge: $750psf must try, will be hard
Ola: $850-900 fair price
One Amber: $800 fair price
The Rochester: bank will not consider $1000psf, far below that

and this is just january

fooll8
13-01-09, 12:42
gfoo, any indication for condo at river vallye, eg. the cosmopolitan? Is $1200psf fair value for cosmopolitan?

gfoo
13-01-09, 12:45
i dunno, not looking at that area so never submit for valuation.

wah i just checked REALIS - avg transaction of The Rochester is $1300psf, and the majority of them are DPS. 2 banks say cannot loan even $1000psf, no wonder got pple lelong now at $950psf in property guru.

This is one property that will sure kena DPS problem - somemore they are still trying to tout the remaining loft units under DPS

fooll8
13-01-09, 12:47
i dunno, not looking at that area so never submit for valuation.

wah i just checked REALIS - avg transaction of The Rochester is $1300psf, and the majority of them are DPS. 2 banks say cannot loan even $1000psf, no wonder got pple lelong now at $950psf in property guru.

This is one property that will sure kena DPS problem - somemore they are still trying to tout the remaining loft units under DPS

Thanks for the info.

focus
13-01-09, 13:34
This is how rumour starts.

Banks generally do scenario planning for various purpose - business forcast, downturn preparation and stress test.

The scenario described above are most probably stress test with highly overblown gloom and doom conditions. I believe this stress is required by MAS to test local bank's ability to handle a crisis.

If a family with ~10k monthly income and perhaps only ~1-2k current loan obligation (probably a car), this family could get easily get a 30yr $500k loan at 80% LTV.

regards

So how about a family that only want a $1.5m property but with a bank account that can pay in full many times over? How come they give 70% LTV? My coupon/dividend payments yearly (if taxable as an individual) is in the highest income bracket. Even if they discount the coupon/dividend payments in half, it is still in the highest income bracket.

isaaclim
13-01-09, 14:41
Thanks for providing those figures.

Here are some of my personal interpretation of those figures:
- 1.8mils working Singaporean + PR. 200k of foreigner with E-Pass
- 1.5mils HDB flats. 260k private residential units. 66k in pipeline.

That is 300k of working Singaporean + PR and 200k of foreigner needs private residential units.

Among those 300k, 25% are occupied by top 5%. Do you think their housewives work? Easily 200k are well taken care.

So the question is how many units required by foreigner? Some situation, among the 200k, there are at least 30% where their house wife does not work!

Basically Singapore property is tightly link to the requirement from foreigner. Unless massive foreigner being asked to go back. Otherwise, yours 100k scenario will never happen.

al_ttk
13-01-09, 15:23
read many times over but still dun understand.... :confused:

300k x 25% x 5% = 3.75k... how does this translate to 200k individuals being well taken care of? maybe i need a refresher in primary 6 math....



Thanks for providing those figures.

Here are some of my personal interpretation of those figures:
- 1.8mils working Singaporean + PR. 200k of foreigner with E-Pass
- 1.5mils HDB flats. 260k private residential units. 66k in pipeline.

That is 300k of working Singaporean + PR and 200k of foreigner needs private residential units.

Among those 300k, 25% are occupied by top 5%. Do you think their housewives work? Easily 200k are well taken care.

So the question is how many units required by foreigner? Some situation, among the 200k, there are at least 30% where their house wife does not work!

Basically Singapore property is tightly link to the requirement from foreigner. Unless massive foreigner being asked to go back. Otherwise, yours 100k scenario will never happen.

myxzyden
13-01-09, 15:45
It's true ..
I asked a RM how much I can loan ..
he told me only 70% LTV and he can see that what I have in the bank account is more than twice the amount I want to loan..

Anyway, if Sentosa units are going down to 700psf .. I would buy one to stay ... :) But then..hmm... wouldn't those landed properties in non-prime estate be going down further till 300-400psf??

Tht's not what I know of.
My brother recently took a 80% loan for a 800k property. Monthly payment is slightly under 30% of his gross income. He's a working professional, 7 years into his career, servicing one car, cash of less than 50k (after paying off the 20% downpayment).

No problem at all at getting loan

isaaclim
13-01-09, 15:46
read many times over but still dun understand.... :confused:

300k x 25% x 5% = 3.75k... how does this translate to 200k individuals being well taken care of? maybe i need a refresher in primary 6 math....

Oh... The 5% is the top 5% income tax contributors. 5% of 1.8mil = 90k

300k-90k=210k. 210k/2 = 105k.

105k+90k ~ 200k. Got it? :spliff:

Moa Moa Chen
13-01-09, 16:02
One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

- 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
- for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
- Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
- Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
- towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
- prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
St. Regis - $1,200 psf
Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
Rivergate - $800 psf
MBR - $1,000 psf
Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon.. :doh:

Quoted story about Sentosa Isand (Pulau Mati), no wonder so quiet n eerie in the night :scared-2:

"I grew up in Singapore, and when I was young, my parents warned me about spiritual places. By that I mean that they warned me not to go to places haunted by ghosts. In Singapore, there were ghosts everywhere. Murdered lovers dwelled in banana trees. Pontianaks, the Malay called them – blood-sucking women who raged in the bulging fruit, bursting out of the yellow skins at night. As a precaution, my parents placed eight-sided mirrors outside our door to deflect these tormented souls. Once, on the island of Sentosa, one of my classmates woke up with bruises around her neck. Nobody was surprised, as demonic assaults were a phenomenon common to camping trips, like mosquito bites. We knew we were sleeping on a sandy graveyard, for before it became a tourist resort, Sentosa was called 'Pulau Mati' – Island of Death – because Japanese soldiers had shot thousands of Chinese rebels and buried them there, under the shore where we slept. In August during the Festival of the Hungry Ghosts, a gray fog would fill Singapore – the swirling ash from burnt money, food, and ghost BMWs, presents combusted to appease the wandering souls. We were taught not to walk in underground car parks or go to public toilets alone during that month."

8kenshin
04-02-09, 12:10
"- 1.5mils HDB flats. 260k private residential units. 66k in pipeline."

The blind leading the blind....The actual HDB flats is half of this number.

isaaclim
04-02-09, 15:11
"- 1.5mils HDB flats. 260k private residential units. 66k in pipeline."

The blind leading the blind....The actual HDB flats is half of this number.

Do you have the actual figure? I was told it was about 1 private for 4 HDB units. But the number was not used in the discussion.

8kenshin
04-02-09, 22:52
Do you have the actual figure? I was told it was about 1 private for 4 HDB units. But the number was not used in the discussion.

I was just a bit surprised that analysis was being done when the numbers were off by 100%.

The most recent numbers are 838K owned HDB, 46K rental HDB and 241K landed property and private units.

The average houshold size is 3.4 for HDB (have not seen a figure for private), which is relatively high by world standards. The number has been declining with the slow decline of the three generation household.

isaaclim
04-02-09, 23:05
How do you obtain those figures?

J-Dog, where do you obtain your figures?

nav14
05-02-09, 08:36
How do you obtain those figures?

J-Dog, where do you obtain your figures?

It is so obvious J-Dog has made up the figures. What's surprising is how did you guys fall for it. I didn't know Singaporeans can be so stupid. Maybe the recession has made their brains stop working.

How on earth will 40,000 units be completed in 2009? Go and check up URA figures for heaven's sake whici are always on the high side.

8kenshin
05-02-09, 10:23
Good pick-up

The premise that a bank CEO would call up an analyst to do this type of study is so unlikely, I didn't even bother to read the first line properly.

DTZ put out a report that actual completions of appoximately 45K units from now to 2013, implying about 20K worth of projects will be put on hold if they are right.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure prices will continue to come down but whether its the occasional firesale or across the whole market remains to be seen. I thing Ardomer <$1500 in 2009 is quite likely.... whether that goes to a property agent/bank insider or to the open market is the real question.

proud owner
05-02-09, 10:30
Good pick-up

The premise that a bank CEO would call up an analyst to do this type of study is so unlikely, I didn't even bother to read the first line properly.

DTZ put out a report that actual completions of appoximately 45K units from now to 2013, implying about 20K worth of projects will be put on hold if they are right.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure prices will continue to come down but whether its the occasional firesale or across the whole market remains to be seen. I thing Ardomer <$1500 in 2009 is quite likely.... whether that goes to a property agent/bank insider or to the open market is the real question.


i agree that 40000 units are spread over a few years ...looking at past record ..on a bull property year ..we were only able to complete 15000 units in a year ... and on a low year, its 8000 units ...

not forgetting that there are so many project going on at one time .. plus developers slowing down ..making for use of the TOP allowable period..the actually number of completed units maybe alot lower ...in an afford to 'create' a shortage scenario ...thats my feeling

isaaclim
05-02-09, 10:35
Cool... This thread was started with 100k of access.
After budget 2009, everything is reversed. Now we are going to face "Shortage"...

Great!!! Hurrah Budget 2009 :)

proud owner
05-02-09, 10:44
Cool... This thread was started with 100k of access.
After budget 2009, everything is reversed. Now we are going to face "Shortage"...

Great!!! Hurrah Budget 2009 :)

i am not saying there will be a shortage, but that 40k units to be completed by 2009 is way too high ...

if you notice, in the past , every project, on its launch, always have the TOP 3-4 yrs but always complete in 2-2.5yrs...

now some project are stretching, using the full 3-4 yrs ...that to me is 'delaying' and if you have bought a unit at launch and expect to move in in 2 yrs time, then you may end up having to 'rent' some place first as the TOP can be 3yrs instead ...

Zeng Han Jun
11-02-09, 00:55
So how about a family that only want a $1.5m property but with a bank account that can pay in full many times over? How come they give 70% LTV? My coupon/dividend payments yearly (if taxable as an individual) is in the highest income bracket. Even if they discount the coupon/dividend payments in half, it is still in the highest income bracket.

I am sure you have more than 3 properties? yeah? otherwise they would not have capped you at 70%

fire
11-02-09, 11:08
Would it be fair to say that, by 3rd Quarter 2009. There will be heaps of apartments/HDB available for sale in the market? The way I look at it, is how the hell could we justify such high prices in 2006/2007 when the average joe could barely afford a 600psf unit during 2005. Real income has not risen enough to justify the jump in property price. Obviously, the boom in prices can be attributed to speculation.

focus
11-02-09, 11:13
I am sure you have more than 3 properties? yeah? otherwise they would not have capped you at 70%
Even if it's 3 properties in prime district, the debt/equity ratio is at most 50% of my equity base.

They are restricting because my family is not working and no one have an income except the recurrent coupons/dividends from the investment portfolio. So I am flabberghasted that we are more credit worthy than most working professionals and yet those professionals can get 80% LTV?

The reason why I am trying to get as much loan as possible is because the money can be put to better use in stocks/bonds.

kingkong1984
02-11-10, 03:41
One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

- 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
- for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
- Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
- Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
- towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
- prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
St. Regis - $1,200 psf
Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
Rivergate - $800 psf
MBR - $1,000 psf
Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon.. :doh:

Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?

dtrax
02-11-10, 05:00
Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?

None of it came true. The End

Geylang OKT
02-11-10, 06:48
just got an email back from bankers whom i submitted a valuation list for property price indicators, even before i submit any of my income docs.

Beacon Edge: $750psf must try, will be hard
Ola: $850-900 fair price
One Amber: $800 fair price
The Rochester: bank will not consider $1000psf, far below that

and this is just january

One Amber owners wonch be very happy with you :D :D :D

Geylang OKT
02-11-10, 06:49
None of it came true. The End

Frightening movie.... akan datang. :D :D :D

teddybear
02-11-10, 09:12
That writer 'J-Dog' had a castration ceremony after betting his 'little brother' on it. He won't appear again. Obviously, what he said is just to scare people and none materialized. Anybody who listened to him and waiting for that price some probably you already saw in the news - jumping in front of the MRT train, jumping from high-rise flats, found floating in the kallang river etc. :p


Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?

devilplate
02-11-10, 09:27
tats the best period in my whole life so far:D

teddybear
02-11-10, 09:37
Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m ! :cheers1:
Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!


tats the best period in my whole life so far:D

bargain hunter
02-11-10, 10:39
i once tracked that 1600psf ardmore II buyer. he sold at 1800 the next month or so hahaha. :banghead:


Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m ! :cheers1:
Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!

Condo Collector
02-11-10, 10:40
Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m ! :cheers1:
Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!

Well... Never take advice blindly from forum.

DKSG
10-11-10, 21:24
Thats why I always advocate posting facts for discussion.

Recently, I noted a disturbing trend. There are really many many developments obtaining TOP within the last 6-9 mths AND there are many many more going to obtain TOP within the next 6-9 mths. The billion dollar question is : Will the rental market be able to support this increase ?

Below are just some developments I notice in the above category.

Please feel free to add (or delete if I am incorrect) :

Lumiere (TOP)
One Shenton (going to TOP)
The Clift (going to TOP)
The Arte (TOP)
Dakota Residences (TOP)
Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
M21 (TOP)
Southbank (TOP)
Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
St Thomas Suites (TOP)
Soleil (going to TOP)
Zedge (going to TOP)
Trillium (going to TOP)
Tribeca (TOP)
Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
Orchard ION
Riverine
One Amber
Aalto
Latitude

I guess there are people here more familiar with the market and can double this list ?

For our factual discussion,
DKSG

devilplate
10-11-10, 22:54
how much is considered too much?

not easy to come up with a conclusion jus based on TOP units...

oversupply story is always there during gd times....:D

market gd, more enblocs, more units gona build, oversupply in future....

Squall8888
11-11-10, 00:05
It is too hard to tell. Some think 5000 units TOP is a lot. But some think 5000 is under supply. You have to think about the demand factor. On average, it is 8000 units. But that is on average. Maybe recession 3000 units, boom 14,000 units. So no one can tell. I can only tell you STI is going up :)

I mean, look at the first post. Many agree. But what happened? Too hard to tell, too hard to predict.




Thats why I always advocate posting facts for discussion.

Recently, I noted a disturbing trend. There are really many many developments obtaining TOP within the last 6-9 mths AND there are many many more going to obtain TOP within the next 6-9 mths. The billion dollar question is : Will the rental market be able to support this increase ?

Below are just some developments I notice in the above category.

Please feel free to add (or delete if I am incorrect) :

Lumiere (TOP)
One Shenton (going to TOP)
The Clift (going to TOP)
The Arte (TOP)
Dakota Residences (TOP)
Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
M21 (TOP)
Southbank (TOP)
Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
St Thomas Suites (TOP)
Soleil (going to TOP)
Zedge (going to TOP)
Trillium (going to TOP)
Tribeca (TOP)
Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
Orchard ION
Riverine
One Amber
Aalto
Latitude

I guess there are people here more familiar with the market and can double this list ?

For our factual discussion,
DKSG

trump7
11-11-10, 01:27
That`s why you should invest your hard-earned money for condos which are located in area that have the demand in good time and bad time as well.
something like one just beside MRT or beside good school at least you beat other competitors. Location, Location, Location!!

Komo
11-11-10, 06:21
At least this year is a riskier year to buy than last year. Govt did a good job with the timing of the cooling measures. At least if any fallout it's deferred and contained. I think it's about right time to let go in resale market. Pay increase more bonus :D :D

Squall8888
11-11-10, 08:14
Depends. In FEb/Mar last year, it is seen risker. Not by me, but by banks and all the analysts. Why?

Now, analysts predict prices rise more slowly
Last year March, analysts predict 10% drop for 2009.





At least this year is a riskier year to buy than last year. Govt did a good job with the timing of the cooling measures. At least if any fallout it's deferred and contained. I think it's about right time to let go in resale market. Pay increase more bonus :D :D

Antz621
11-11-10, 08:51
It is too hard to tell. Some think 5000 units TOP is a lot. But some think 5000 is under supply. You have to think about the demand factor. On average, it is 8000 units. But that is on average. Maybe recession 3000 units, boom 14,000 units. So no one can tell. I can only tell you STI is going up :)

I mean, look at the first post. Many agree. But what happened? Too hard to tell, too hard to predict.
8000 units is for brand new TOP? How about those existing condo units in the market that are also ready for offer too? Recently my company just renewed our lease for a 3 bedder in Queens. Previously was $4,800 pm. This year we got it renewed at $3,300 only. All we need to do is to tell the landlord that we are looking for somewhere else and she immediately chop her price without us even securing a place elsewhere first! What happens next is history. ;)

kane
11-11-10, 08:58
lucky you that your landlord isn't tracking rental in the suburban market. a good HDB around queens probably can be tenanted for $2700. you can free security, pool and parking at $3300.

your gain, her loss.

Antz621
11-11-10, 09:08
lucky you that your landlord isn't tracking rental in the suburban market. a good HDB around queens probably can be tenanted for $2700. you can free security, pool and parking at $3300.

your gain, her loss.

Any idea what was the launch PSF price for Queens? I reckoned that the lady feels that even at 3,300 pm she still got some yield this is much better than letting it be empty while waiting for the next fish to be baited.

DC33_2008
11-11-10, 09:10
Your landlord/landlady is not very property savvy. Maybe the revised rent is still able to cover her mortgage (low interest) and other miscellaneous fees.

amk
11-11-10, 09:23
Duchess Residences (going to TOP) ;)


Lumiere (TOP)
One Shenton (going to TOP)
The Clift (going to TOP)
The Arte (TOP)
Dakota Residences (TOP)
Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
M21 (TOP)
Southbank (TOP)
Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
St Thomas Suites (TOP)
Soleil (going to TOP)
Zedge (going to TOP)
Trillium (going to TOP)
Tribeca (TOP)
Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
Orchard ION
Riverine
One Amber
Aalto
Latitude

teddybear
11-11-10, 09:23
3 bedders for $3300? Even clementi 5 rm HDB flat and very old being rented for $2800 pm!
Really sad that people can be cheated like that. The landlord's agent is supposed to advise their paying master (the landlord here) that $3300 is way below market rate, more cheapo than the HDB flats nearby! What to say when people want/willing to be cheated this way by not doing their homework? Can ask this landlord to sell me at $600 psf? :p


8000 units is for brand new TOP? How about those existing condo units in the market that are also ready for offer too? Recently my company just renewed our lease for a 3 bedder in Queens. Previously was $4,800 pm. This year we got it renewed at $3,300 only. All we need to do is to tell the landlord that we are looking for somewhere else and she immediately chop her price without us even securing a place elsewhere first! What happens next is history. ;)

teddybear
11-11-10, 09:28
I remember that sometime in early 2007, there are a projected supply of >20,000 new units! Back then, analysts and newspapers are casting the doom and doom because of such big supply! What happened? What is >20,000 new units in a bull market? >30,000 new units also sup sup suai! Precisely because 20,000+ new units are too little, we see OCR prices hitting >$1200 psf and CCR prices hitting >$5000 psf! :D
History repeating itself again except that usually the current high will be higher than previous high?


It is too hard to tell. Some think 5000 units TOP is a lot. But some think 5000 is under supply. You have to think about the demand factor. On average, it is 8000 units. But that is on average. Maybe recession 3000 units, boom 14,000 units. So no one can tell. I can only tell you STI is going up :)

I mean, look at the first post. Many agree. But what happened? Too hard to tell, too hard to predict.

Antz621
11-11-10, 09:48
3 bedders for $3300? Even clementi 5 rm HDB flat and very old being rented for $2800 pm!
Really sad that people can be cheated like that. The landlord's agent is supposed to advise their paying master (the landlord here) that $3300 is way below market rate, more cheapo than the HDB flats nearby! What to say when people want/willing to be cheated this way by not doing their homework? Can ask this landlord to sell me at $600 psf? :p

There was no agent involved until the deal was concluded. Maybe that is because we had rented from her for the last 5 years. Moreover my co is a Jap co and the expat managers really take pride in maintaining the house well so she probably just wana save on the trouble and simply renew with us with a rate that she is comfortable with. She was the one who proposed the rate; not us. Like I said, there was no agent involved at the nego stage. It was betw my HR and her. The agent (some jap middleman property agency) just come in at a later stage to get the paperwork done that's all.

Antz621
11-11-10, 09:49
3 bedders for $3300? Even clementi 5 rm HDB flat and very old being rented for $2800 pm!
Really sad that people can be cheated like that. The landlord's agent is supposed to advise their paying master (the landlord here) that $3300 is way below market rate, more cheapo than the HDB flats nearby! What to say when people want/willing to be cheated this way by not doing their homework? Can ask this landlord to sell me at $600 psf? :p

Btw serious Clementi 5 room can command 28? Wow! Thought of asking my parents to rent out their 4 room in Ave 4 area soon... I thought probably 2k max...

Antz621
11-11-10, 09:53
Your landlord/landlady is not very property savvy. Maybe the revised rent is still able to cover her mortgage (low interest) and other miscellaneous fees.

Ya maybe lor. That's why I wondered what was her quantum when she bought at launch.

Anyway it's a decent 1300 sqft 3 bedder on the 5th floor. For 3.3, seriously I feel its a very good deal for my co. The other 2 condos we rented for our expats one is a studio in J.East Mayfair @ $2,200 pm and another studio at One Jervious @$3,xxx pm.

kane
11-11-10, 11:06
Any idea what was the launch PSF price for Queens? I reckoned that the lady feels that even at 3,300 pm she still got some yield this is much better than letting it be empty while waiting for the next fish to be baited.

She can probably more than cover her instalment. I was under the impression a three bedder was sold about 800-900k.

But the point is she can easily get a tenant at 3800. Perhaps like you said, because she thinks the place is so well taken care of, she doesn't mind subletting it on the cheap.

bargain hunter
11-11-10, 11:26
my observation is that a lot of the units that are going to TOP are in CCR and sold during 2007 boom. some are too big to be rented out (hopefully the buyers didn't buy with that intention), so we won't know till all these come on stream.

in addition to AMK's Duchess Resi ;) (btw AMK, do u know when exactly, they kept saying oct, now nov and now???),

DKSG, not sure which condo u referring to for newton road, no development called The Linc but Paterson Linc along Paterson road has also recently TOP indeed.

Cityvista has TOP, Latitude also, I saw a few units with people moved in already.

Riverine and One Amber has TOP for some time already.

Aalto i m not sure, someone else please confirm?



Thats why I always advocate posting facts for discussion.

Recently, I noted a disturbing trend. There are really many many developments obtaining TOP within the last 6-9 mths AND there are many many more going to obtain TOP within the next 6-9 mths. The billion dollar question is : Will the rental market be able to support this increase ?

Below are just some developments I notice in the above category.

Please feel free to add (or delete if I am incorrect) :

Lumiere (TOP)
One Shenton (going to TOP)
The Clift (going to TOP)
The Arte (TOP)
Dakota Residences (TOP)
Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
M21 (TOP)
Southbank (TOP)
Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
St Thomas Suites (TOP)
Soleil (going to TOP)
Zedge (going to TOP)
Trillium (going to TOP)
Tribeca (TOP)
Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
Orchard ION
Riverine
One Amber
Aalto
Latitude

I guess there are people here more familiar with the market and can double this list ?

For our factual discussion,
DKSG

DC33_2008
11-11-10, 11:31
Better clitch a 2-year rental for those developments TOP recently.

bargain hunter
11-11-10, 12:17
not sure if relevant but we forgot about sentosa condos:

Oceanfront (TOP)
Turquoise (going to TOP)


Some others in CCR:

Belle Vue (TOP)
The Orchard Residences (going to TOP)
Ardmore II (TOP)
Waterford (TOP)
Paterson Suites (TOP)
Skypark (TOP)
8 Rodyk (going to TOP)
Riveria Gardens (TOP)
8 Napier (TOP)
Sui Generis (TOP)
Wilkie Studio (going to TOP? anyone can confirm?)
Parkview Eclat (going to TOP but same grade as Marq)
Rhapsody on Mount Elizabeth (TOP)
Orchard View (TOP)
18 Shelford (going to TOP)
8 Nassim Hill (TOP)

anyone knows the progress of some MM in CCR ie:

Parc Sophia?
Mount Sophia Suites?
Wilkie 80?

In RCR:

Cascadia (going to TOP)
The Rochester (going to TOP)
Seafront (TOP)

someone else more familiar continue. :ashamed1:

KC76
11-11-10, 12:53
So many dev TOP-ed yet like no one move in. Sometimes I wonder if people buy them just to leave it there for appreciation. :eek:

kane
11-11-10, 15:31
some foreigners do buy them as holiday home, as a hedge if things got unstable back home. The exact number however would be hard to verify. An example is Cairnhill Crest, lots of units aren't lit at night, yet, throughout the crisis, the prices didn't really drop much. It was on my radar for a while.

I've seen some others buying with cash and waiting for the golden goose tenant to come along.

devilplate
11-11-10, 15:41
8000 units is for brand new TOP? How about those existing condo units in the market that are also ready for offer too? Recently my company just renewed our lease for a 3 bedder in Queens. Previously was $4,800 pm. This year we got it renewed at $3,300 only. All we need to do is to tell the landlord that we are looking for somewhere else and she immediately chop her price without us even securing a place elsewhere first! What happens next is history. ;)

3.3k nia!!!!!!!!! pinnacle @ duxton 4rm flat oredi going for 3.5k!!!(approved) haha

other 3bedders in queens r asking 5k....u got big big durian!!!!

close both eyes also can fetch 4k....dun even nid agent!!! hahaha :p

kane
11-11-10, 15:44
3.3k nia!!!!!!!!! pinnacle @ duxton 4rm flat oredi going for 3.5k!!!(approved) haha

other 3bedders in queens r asking 5k....u got big big durian!!!!

close both eyes also can fetch 4k....dun even nid agent!!! hahaha :p

pinnacle 4 rm 3.5k? that's the rent for suburban condos with security and full facilities.

devilplate
11-11-10, 15:48
not sure if relevant but we forgot about sentosa condos:

Oceanfront (TOP)
Turquoise (going to TOP)


Some others in CCR:

Belle Vue (TOP)
The Orchard Residences (going to TOP)
Ardmore II (TOP)
Waterford (TOP)
Paterson Suites (TOP)
Skypark (TOP)
8 Rodyk (going to TOP)
Riveria Gardens (TOP)
8 Napier (TOP)
Sui Generis (TOP)
Wilkie Studio (going to TOP? anyone can confirm?)
Parkview Eclat (going to TOP but same grade as Marq)
Rhapsody on Mount Elizabeth (TOP)
Orchard View (TOP)
18 Shelford (going to TOP)
8 Nassim Hill (TOP)

anyone knows the progress of some MM in CCR ie:

Parc Sophia?
Mount Sophia Suites?
Wilkie 80?

In RCR:

Cascadia (going to TOP)
The Rochester (going to TOP)
Seafront (TOP)

someone else more familiar continue. :ashamed1:

bro, looks like u r gunning for bargains in CCR....so far any shaky sellers?

devilplate
11-11-10, 15:49
pinnacle 4 rm 3.5k? that's the rent for suburban condos with security and full facilities.

and it was snapped up within a nite....hahaha
partly bcoz it was brand new....dun ask me how i noe:p

kane
11-11-10, 16:03
and it was snapped up within a nite....hahaha
partly bcoz it was brand new....dun ask me how i noe:p

that hot huh.

i'm starting to think with the recent spate of incidents, the rental premium of a condo with security over HDB should pick up.

devilplate
11-11-10, 16:09
that hot huh.

i'm starting to think with the recent spate of incidents, the rental premium of a condo with security over HDB should pick up.

to me pinnacle 3.5k its ok...condos in tat area easily cost 6k for a 3bedder and condition may not be as good

kane
11-11-10, 16:11
6k is pretty ex for that congested area, for 2k more, you can probably go for sentosa seaside living.

bargain hunter
11-11-10, 16:31
too early lah bro. all these are from my database and/or i jog past and see for myself, me not targeting them. rental cannot support and big commitment for even a 2 bedder unit, for now cannot target lah, i m not rich, can buy and leave empty type.


bro, looks like u r gunning for bargains in CCR....so far any shaky sellers?

stalingrad
11-11-10, 16:36
that hot huh.

i'm starting to think with the recent spate of incidents, the rental premium of a condo with security over HDB should pick up.
yes, HDB is not entirely safe. more crimes and more bad neighbors.

all the murders, slashing, and glue sniffing, and cigarette smoking by poly students. all have happened at HDB. not be mention the incident where kids were ordered to run laps by their cruel dad.

KC76
11-11-10, 16:50
and it was snapped up within a nite....hahaha
partly bcoz it was brand new....dun ask me how i noe:p

Sure or not? 40+floor? I knoe 5rm is asking for 3K+

bargain hunter
11-11-10, 19:04
with so many units, i won't be surprised that some units at pinnacle can be rented out at a huge premium. but one unit doesn't make a market. yah. there are 5 rooms asking for less than what that 4rm was rented out for indeed.


Sure or not? 40+floor? I knoe 5rm is asking for 3K+