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firestarter
31-03-09, 22:45
interested in RG but my budget is only max 1k psf ... would like to seek the opinion of the lao jiaos here ... in your opinion, do you think RG will hit 1k psf or below?
i see that there are > 160 units on sale and > 320 units for rent atm.. will the price hold at the current avg 1.2k~1.3k level?

cher
31-03-09, 23:32
interested in RG but my budget is only max 1k psf ... would like to seek the opinion of the lao jiaos here ... in your opinion, do you think RG will hit 1k psf or below?
i see that there are > 160 units on sale and > 320 units for rent atm.. will the price hold at the current avg 1.2k~1.3k level?


$1000psf, yes tan ku-ku

teresa
01-04-09, 10:41
I think it will very much depends on the profile of all the current buyers of Rivergate. If one of afew of them starts to lose their job and unable to tahan, they will probably let it go at below 1k, this is really bopian. I noticed some of the projects at D5 with very few sellers are still holding their psf despite the downturn. As such, u will need to wait to see if any seller is desperate to let it go at leylong prices. :beats-me-man:

Bishan Kid
01-04-09, 10:52
I think it will very much depends on the profile of all the current buyers of Rivergate. If one of afew of them starts to lose their job and unable to tahan, they will probably let it go at below 1k, this is really bopian. I noticed some of the projects at D5 with very few sellers are still holding their psf despite the downturn. As such, u will need to wait to see if any seller is desperate to let it go at leylong prices. :beats-me-man:


Just becos one of the Indo owner sold his four seasons unit to his friend at $1200psf during the Asian Crisis, thus that meant the valuation has gone down to $1200psf and the rest of the owners have to follow?
Check the caveat!! You are right very much depends on the profile of owners.

oxboy99
21-04-09, 11:41
What I heard from a property agent is that later this year there maybe a few fire sales for Rivergate.

At what price? That will depend on your luck and negotiation skills.

proud owner
21-04-09, 11:49
Just becos one of the Indo owner sold his four seasons unit to his friend at $1200psf during the Asian Crisis, thus that meant the valuation has gone down to $1200psf and the rest of the owners have to follow?
Check the caveat!! You are right very much depends on the profile of owners.

unfortunately, banks do base a little on 'last transactions' when they give valuation, and subsequently the loan ...

if you read todays article on the Fernhill project, where buyer delayed in payment ... something was mentioned that there is a risk if developer repossess the units and sell .. whihc they may sell above cost, but lower than market .. and neighbouring projects RISK BEING DRAGGED DOWN

dtrax
21-04-09, 19:43
There is possibility, Apr transaction for RG range between $11XX psf for larger units to $13XX psf

On a sidenote, Watermark hit below $1k psf in Apr:

5 Rodyk Street #03-27
Freehold
$930psf
1012
$941k
06 Apr 09

vin002
21-04-09, 19:51
interested in RG but my budget is only max 1k psf ... would like to seek the opinion of the lao jiaos here ... in your opinion, do you think RG will hit 1k psf or below?
i see that there are > 160 units on sale and > 320 units for rent atm.. will the price hold at the current avg 1.2k~1.3k level?



Possible to be below $1K. But that will not be many units. And you will not be the "lucky" one... Imagine how many will want to buy RG below $1K? Mostly likely there are already a few offering at $1050psf instead of $1K...

latour
22-04-09, 11:45
Looking at situation 1 month ago and now $1000psf and below is higly possible. Had been watching a few similar projects in the area and some at the fringe. RG psf profile is quite the same as The SeaView ie. 1k to 1.5k psf at the peak, the latest transaction in TSV is $900 psf,,, so got chance liao as rest of Q2 and Q3 is expected to be worst and thats also where lots of expats with kids finished exam here and going home... have to be :sleep: for a little while more...

Lord Anus
22-04-09, 12:06
There is possibility, Apr transaction for RG range between $11XX psf for larger units to $13XX psf

On a sidenote, Watermark hit below $1k psf in Apr:

5 Rodyk Street #03-27
Freehold
$930psf
1012
$941k
06 Apr 09

not surprising. it is such a screwed project from the start. it is in the middle of nowhere, no views, ugly building, no nothing, plus there are so many condos to choose from in the area including the 500+ units Rivergate. Plus some more new ones already launched and not selling well.

the commercial units on the ground floor will not be as happening as those at The Pier. There is a reason why The Pier is transacting at far higher prices than this Watermark, although both are from practically the same developer CDL/Hong Leong.

Tumi
22-04-09, 15:38
Looking at the exterior of River Gate, it is not the most aesthetically appealing along the River Valley stretch. Saw a few units and found the internal fittings & finishing not really up to scratch. It has to be priced real attractive for me to consider.

Anyone knows how is the rental market going for that devt ?

I saw a few caveats registered in Mar on the URA website. Can anyone advice me the lag time between transaction till it gets registered ? Does it show me all the realised transactions or can some transactions occur without it appearing on the website ? Any Shifu out there who can enlighten me ?

gfoo
22-04-09, 15:56
Looking at the exterior of River Gate, it is not the most aesthetically appealing along the River Valley stretch. Saw a few units and found the internal fittings & finishing not really up to scratch. It has to be priced real attractive for me to consider.

Anyone knows how is the rental market going for that devt ?

I saw a few caveats registered in Mar on the URA website. Can anyone advice me the lag time between transaction till it gets registered ? Does it show me all the realised transactions or can some transactions occur without it appearing on the website ? Any Shifu out there who can enlighten me ?
I'm not a shifu, but from my experience:
- typically caveats are lodged by the bank about 2-3 weeks before completion. A typical lag is about 4-6 weeks from option. In extreme cases, a person can buy today, have a 2 month exercise period, and complete in another 2 months after.
- as caveats are only lodged if a counterparty has a claim on the property, cash purchases are mostly out of the system, and so are DPS until bank loan obtained.

East Lover
22-04-09, 16:23
I'm not a shifu, but from my experience:
- typically caveats are lodged by the bank about 2-3 weeks before completion. A typical lag is about 4-6 weeks from option. In extreme cases, a person can buy today, have a 2 month exercise period, and complete in another 2 months after.
- as caveats are only lodged if a counterparty has a claim on the property, cash purchases are mostly out of the system, and so are DPS until bank loan obtained.
Since the typical lag is about 4 - 6 weeks, given such pricing falling market, if we saw the transaction in URA is $990 psf (for example), the actual current market price should be lower than that 999 psf already, right?

so we can always try our luck to offer slightly lower than the latest URA price? say $900 psf (since 6 weeks ago already dropped to 999 already?)

gfoo
22-04-09, 16:46
in a falling market yes. but it also depends on which areas. for example mine dunno how come all of sudden in april it went up to $1350 with a spike to $1700. And all of sudden agents are calling me saying they have $13xx/14xx chqs in hand for my property. True or not i dun really care coz i'm busy with work and reno.

i think that if you are buying for own stay, benchmark your prices to 2006 or launch levels. from ALL reports i have read, many places like one amber are still overpriced. RG seems a little better but i am not tracking it any longer. For the same money, i would wait out for more units at mbay. (i'm kinda addicted to that area liao. it's one of the very few areas where i can wear my pajamas go basement 7-11 buy coffee and ciggies, and indulge in those SYT OLs walking from mrt to work at ORQ and feel right at home :) )


Since the typical lag is about 4 - 6 weeks, given such pricing falling market, if we saw the transaction in URA is $990 psf (for example), the actual current market price should be lower than that 999 psf already, right?

so we can always try our luck to offer slightly lower than the latest URA price? say $900 psf (since 6 weeks ago already dropped to 999 already?)

Lord Anus
22-04-09, 16:52
in a falling market yes. but it also depends on which areas. for example mine dunno how come all of sudden in april it went up to $1350 with a spike to $1700. And all of sudden agents are calling me saying they have $13xx/14xx chqs in hand for my property. True or not i dun really care coz i'm busy with work and reno.

i think that if you are buying for own stay, benchmark your prices to 2006 or launch levels. from ALL reports i have read, many places like one amber are still overpriced. RG seems a little better but i am not tracking it any longer. For the same money, i would wait out for more units at mbay. (i'm kinda addicted to that area liao. it's one of the very few areas where i can wear my pajamas go basement 7-11 buy coffee and ciggies, and indulge in those SYT OLs walking from mrt to work at ORQ and feel right at home :) )

a) typical agents' fishing tactic. i also kenna agent telling me got foreign buyer ready to offer $xxxx psf, etc etc want me to disturb my tenant so that the buyer can view the property. i believe that, yes, there are buyers, but impossible at that $xxxx psf price.

b) you not scared the SYT OL think you're some kind of construction worker from china? wait bump into your colleague or people you know... paiseh man....

East Lover
22-04-09, 16:58
in a falling market yes. but it also depends on which areas. for example mine dunno how come all of sudden in april it went up to $1350 with a spike to $1700. And all of sudden agents are calling me saying they have $13xx/14xx chqs in hand for my property. True or not i dun really care coz i'm busy with work and reno.

i think that if you are buying for own stay, benchmark your prices to 2006 or launch levels. from ALL reports i have read, many places like one amber are still overpriced. RG seems a little better but i am not tracking it any longer. For the same money, i would wait out for more units at mbay. (i'm kinda addicted to that area liao. it's one of the very few areas where i can wear my pajamas go basement 7-11 buy coffee and ciggies, and indulge in those SYT OLs walking from mrt to work at ORQ and feel right at home :) )

Seems resale price going towards to 2006 price... see this waterside FH @ D15, no much transaction. last year is 1278 psf, 6 mth later drop to almost half!

Maybe forget about the over priced new D15 FH such as the Esta or One Amber or the Seaview... finally got D15 FH dropped to $7xx psf!:spliff:
******
THE WATERSIDE 1,560,000 2,142 728 Mar-09
THE WATERSIDE 1,680,000 2,142 784 Mar-09
THE WATERSIDE 1,725,000 2,174 793 Feb-09
THE WATERSIDE 3,068,000 2,400 1,278 Sep-08
THE WATERSIDE 2,180,000 2,142 1,018 Jul-08
THE WATERSIDE 2,600,000 2,142 1,214 May-08

gfoo
22-04-09, 16:59
a) typical agents' fishing tactic. i also kenna agent telling me got foreign buyer ready to offer $xxxx psf, etc etc want me to disturb my tenant so that the buyer can view the property. i believe that, yes, there are buyers, but impossible at that $xxxx psf price.

b) you not scared the SYT OL think you're some kind of construction worker from china? wait bump into your colleague or people you know... paiseh man....
Lol, i think they prob will think i'm some perv holding a kopi , somemore got morning mari kita. I'm lau liao lah, dun really care what others think.

gfoo
22-04-09, 17:06
Seems resale price going towards to 2006 price... see this waterside FH @ D15, no much transaction. last year is 1278 psf, 6 mth later drop to almost half!

Maybe forget about the over priced new D15 FH such as the Esta or One Amber or the Seaview... finally got D15 FH dropped to $7xx psf!:spliff:
******
THE WATERSIDE 1,560,000 2,142 728 Mar-09
THE WATERSIDE 1,680,000 2,142 784 Mar-09
THE WATERSIDE 1,725,000 2,174 793 Feb-09
THE WATERSIDE 3,068,000 2,400 1,278 Sep-08
THE WATERSIDE 2,180,000 2,142 1,018 Jul-08
THE WATERSIDE 2,600,000 2,142 1,214 May-08

waterside is a really crap project lor - i thought it was some abandoned warehouse. the whole area is dead as well

vin002
22-04-09, 17:07
Lol, i think they prob will think i'm some perv holding a kopi , somemore got morning mari kita. I'm lau liao lah, dun really care what others think.

Haha... You lau liao... Then people most likely think that you are lau tiko lor...

gfoo
22-04-09, 17:09
Haha... You lau liao... Then people most likely think that you are lau tiko lor...

sorry, i AM a lau tiko lor, and proud of it!

kalumder
22-04-09, 18:24
Since the typical lag is about 4 - 6 weeks, given such pricing falling market, if we saw the transaction in URA is $990 psf (for example), the actual current market price should be lower than that 999 psf already, right?

so we can always try our luck to offer slightly lower than the latest URA price? say $900 psf (since 6 weeks ago already dropped to 999 already?)

I am tracking several singapore properties since 2006. One of the extreme cases I have seen, was a penthouse unit at 11 amber. It was on the market for over a year asking for 3.5 million. Last month it was listed at 2.6 million. It sold finally for 2.3 million.

Make an offer to agents at which you think the price is fair, and wait for it to drop to those levels.

East Lover
22-04-09, 18:31
I am tracking several singapore properties since 2006. One of the extreme cases I have seen, was a penthouse unit at 11 amber. It was on the market for over a year asking for 3.5 million. Last month it was listed at 2.6 million. It sold finally for 2.3 million.

Make an offer to agents at which you think the price is fair, and wait for it to drop to those levels.
So do your several properties close to 2006 level yet? or still at early 2007 pricing?

kalumder
22-04-09, 19:27
So do your several properties close to 2006 level yet? or still at early 2007 pricing?

some are, some are not. It is hard to tell what the real asking price is. Nobody is going to list the unit with a offer at which they are willing to sell at. So you have to make an offer, wait and find out.

I cannot tell you what the prices during 2006 where, because already then I knew prices where inflated! that is why I followed and have not bought, yet. 2006 prices have no bearing on my purchase decisions.

East Lover
23-04-09, 12:52
some are, some are not. It is hard to tell what the real asking price is. Nobody is going to list the unit with a offer at which they are willing to sell at. So you have to make an offer, wait and find out.

I cannot tell you what the prices during 2006 where, because already then I knew prices where inflated! that is why I followed and have not bought, yet. 2006 prices have no bearing on my purchase decisions.
iProperty and PropertyGuru, which asking price is more closer to the actual possible deal price?

kalumder
23-04-09, 18:50
iProperty and PropertyGuru, which asking price is more closer to the actual possible deal price?

does not matter. You will see the same unit/landed pop on propertyguru several times over the weeks sometimes with different asking prices. Different agents often trying to sell the same unit.

If you want to see what a unit is really worth look at the rental market on propertyguru/iproperty (Remember though that asking prices for rent can be negotiated down 10-20% in the current market). For me, a unit which would get 6000$ a month rent, should cost around 1.5million. This would get me 4% net return on my investment. If you are buying for own stay, than you might have other criteria than price (value for money, is maybe not as important).

Property_Owner
23-04-09, 20:30
Now some crap are talking about RG going below 1k. HDB upgraders now so rich? Can afford to jump to 1k instead of 600psf? :doh:

teddybear
23-04-09, 23:43
No great deal to some people here as they even saying that RG may drop to $600 psf! Ops! If this happen, some buyers will have to jump from the 43th floor! :scared-1:


Now some crap are talking about RG going below 1k. HDB upgraders now so rich? Can afford to jump to 1k instead of 600psf? :doh:

Property_Owner
24-04-09, 00:47
No great deal to some people here as they even saying that RG may drop to $600 psf! Ops! If this happen, some buyers will have to jump from the 43th floor! :scared-1:

LOL, if RG sells at 600psf. The jump will start from Caspian to Livia.

rogerang
24-04-09, 10:44
Hi guys, im see RG ave psf rising close to $1500psf :doh:
I see majority polled below 1k. Something is wrong somewhere. But i do note that no transection yet for
April. why? why?

EBD
24-04-09, 14:39
Hi guys, im see RG ave psf rising close to $1500psf :doh:
I see majority polled below 1k. Something is wrong somewhere. But i do note that no transection yet for
April. why? why?

Gap in expectations between sellers and buyers too wide? I know this is obvious but it's the simple answer.

in middle of the worst recession in 60 years I dont believe buyers have an pressure to jump into the market. They wont go bankrupt holding onto their money. The pressure will be very much on the weak holders who will eventually determine the price.

august
24-04-09, 15:00
Hi guys, im see RG ave psf rising close to $1500psf :doh:
I see majority polled below 1k. Something is wrong somewhere. But i do note that no transection yet for
April. why? why?

aiya buyers can set watever price mah, 2000psf also can, but who is biting?
but i'm sure some ppl will bite, hahaha, is like that one lah just be happy for them

sltc
24-04-09, 15:36
Hi guys, im see RG ave psf rising close to $1500psf :doh:
I see majority polled below 1k. Something is wrong somewhere. But i do note that no transection yet for
April. why? why?
April transactions is out in URA website for Rivergate :

RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,854,495 1,539 1,205 Apr-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,360,000 1,711 1,379 Apr-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,846,800 1,539 1,200 Apr-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,862,190 1,539 1,210 Apr-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,380,000 2,077 1,146 Apr-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,854,495 1,539 1,205 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,118,000 1,496 1,416 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,239,600 1,033 1,200 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,026,800 1,690 1,199 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,967,650 1,711 1,150 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,239,600 1,033 1,200 Mar-09
RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');) ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,250,000 1,033 1,210 Mar-09

kalumder
24-04-09, 15:47
So 1200psf seems to be the selling point at the moment. Wonder if we go down to 1100psf in the next 4 months. A lot will depend on the popularity of rivergate as a rental unit.

dtrax
24-04-09, 16:05
All 3rms and above from 11XX~12xx in Apr, probably for homestay? I dunno. Mar transactions for 2rms also around $1200psf-1210psf

99 Robertson Quay #19-12
Freehold
$1205psf
1539sq ft
$1854k
09 Apr 09

99 Robertson Quay #16-12
Freehold
$1200psf
1539sq ft
$1846k
09 Apr 09

97 Robertson Quay #37-09
Freehold
$1379psf
1711sq ft
$2360k
09 Apr 09

99 Robertson Quay #18-12
Freehold
$1210psf
1539sq ft
$1862k
08 Apr 09

97 Robertson Quay #27-06
Freehold
$1146psf
2077sq ft
$2380k
06 Apr 09

dtrax
24-04-09, 16:08
Assuming the majority who purchase for homestay since those were larger units then I guess further downward correction in coming months + weak rental + more units completion, buying for investment should be around $1k psf, even watermark already going down like sai now already, what do you guys think?

spetnez
25-04-09, 23:52
Yup... Latest transaction for watermark all below $1K psf. One big unit even went for $736 psf. Now my bank sure won't match the asking price of $1100 psf... I wish to buy watermark. Pls pm me if anyone has unit going for $800 to $1000 psf. Thanks.

DW
26-04-09, 21:30
If you want to see what a unit is really worth look at the rental market on propertyguru/iproperty (Remember though that asking prices for rent can be negotiated down 10-20% in the current market). For me, a unit which would get 6000$ a month rent, should cost around 1.5million. This would get me 4% net return on my investment. If you are buying for own stay, than you might have other criteria than price (value for money, is maybe not as important).

Sorry for the digression from your above quote. I am hoping to get some views from forrumers here on the potential market behaviours of existing owners of RG. Will they rent out their house (even at the expense of negative cashflow, after mortgage payments) or would they sell at a loss now.

One big assumption I am holding here is that these existing owners will be
(A1) able to get loans for their apartments - thus they can chose not to sell if they do not want to;
(A2) in cases where banks cannot finance them based on the originally planned LTV, and request a top-up on the same, we also assume that they are able to do so.

I know the above is a bold assumption but based on my personal feel (I do not have the stats to back it up), (A3) I think there are a substantial number of cash rich owners in RG and thus if they have to top up (and subject to their view being held as they chose not to and they can afford to), chances are (A4) they can afford to do so.

Before I go further, I also want to qualify that I have a vested interest to get a unit at RG and do hope prices will fall.

Let’s assume this is the (A5) worse case scenario for these existing owners – 3rd phase purchaser (@1500psf and above)*:

Assumptions:-
(A6)1507sf bought @ 1500psf = SGD2.26mio.
(A7) Loan amount (80%) = SGD1.8mio; tenor = 35 years. All-in rate for mortgage = (A8) 1.5%(SIBOR) + 1.0% (margin) = 2.5%
Mortgage payment monthly = SGD6.5K
(A9) Maintenance ~ SGD350 per month (I heard from agents. We assumed it at face value)
Monthly financial commitment of owner = 6850/1507 = 4.5psf per month

Rent Option – At a rental which will not cover monthly obligations
Rent out: Assuming mortgage and maintenance for the unit is 4.5psf per month (psfpm) - this works out to be about SGD6800 mortgage per month.Next, we assume rental for a 1507sf unit is 3psfpm (this works out to be SGD4500 rent per mth for the unit).

Total negative cashflow of the owner is (4.5-3)*12 = 18psf per year.
After two years, owner lose 36psf, on a standardised basis (i.e. psf).

This said, the above standardised loss (i.e. 36psf after 2 years), keeps the owner to retain ownership of the property after 2 years and thus he is still exposed to price risk of market two years later. If he takes the rental route, and after 36psf negative cashflow on his investment (assumes he is not staying), when he renews the rental contract, he would be continue to be exposed to further rental losses or sale loss (i.e. market risk).

What are your views? If you are an owner, would rather to take a negative cashflow for 2 years (cumulatively, 36psf for 2 years) or would you bit the bullet and take a loss immediately (potentially selling at below 1500-36 = 1464psf, given where the transacted pricing is at now ~1200psf based on URA numbers).

I appreciate the above is based on quite a number of assumptions (A1-A9). But would be grateful if you can share a little more of your views and rationale for the proposed behaviour which you may purport.

*This is a repeat post from another thread and I am hoping to get more views from the various expert forummers on the same.

focus
26-04-09, 21:43
i would take a bet with renting out the unit and sustaining it albeit negative cashflow for the duration till the market recovers.

DW
26-04-09, 22:00
i would take a bet with renting out the unit and sustaining it albeit negative cashflow for the duration till the market recovers.

Thanks for your reply. On an additional note, if it is not too much to ask for, grateful if other respondents can kindly advise if you are an
(i) interested buyer for a property (not necessarily RG) in the current market; or
(ii) interested seller of property(ies) in the current market; or
(iii) property agent.

The intention is not to cast discriminatory remarks or rebuttal (which I personally feel it is not necessary to do things like this in a forum, though I recognise has been going on in a number of thread, sadly) but just to allow me to appreciate your point of view and where you are coming from.
Thanks.

DW
26-04-09, 22:03
i would take a bet with renting out the unit and sustaining it albeit negative cashflow for the duration till the market recovers.

And yes, I tend to agree with you to some extent, though it does saddens me quite a bit; since I am interested to get a unit there.

Any other views ?? Do share some views on what might be the possible drivers to motivate a price plunge scenario - something I would very much like to see/ happen.

cartman
26-04-09, 22:20
And yes, I tend to agree with you to some extent, though it does saddens me quite a bit; since I am interested to get a unit there.

Any other views ?? Do share some views on what might be the possible drivers to motivate a price plunge scenario - something I would very much like to see/ happen.
think if the world economy does not take another plunge, it should be pretty much range bound with a downward bias. now may not be the time to jump in too since even if the plunge does not happen, a price surge is unlikely to happen too. when elephants trample in the market, we can only stand aside and hope to get some crumbs.

spetnez
26-04-09, 22:59
I am not an expert in property but have been monitoring the market as I am getting a unit for my own stay.

In my humble opinion, it is a matter of supply and demand. I feel that there is an oversupply in the Singapore property market. Latest data released by URA confirms that a large number of units remain unsold. A flip through the Sat newspapers shows a large number of new and resale units available and many more for rental. Some owners have even resorted to 'renting' out their units on daily basis, making them no difference from a hotel or motel (depending on location and condition). Investors can buy but who are they going to rent to?

Just the River Valley area has many new and resale units floating in the market - Rivergate (TOPped); The Inspira (TOP in 2009), One Jervois (TOP in 2009), Trebica (TOP in 2009), Trillium, Lattitude, Nathan Residences, The Mercury, Martin Place, 8 Rodyk, The Wharf ..... In a few years' time, the River Valley area will be flooded with new condos.

kalumder
27-04-09, 00:39
One big assumption I am holding here is that these existing owners will be (A1) able to get loans for their apartments - thus they can chose not to sell if they do not want to;
(A2) in cases where banks cannot finance them based on the originally planned LTV, and request a top-up on the same, we also assume that they are able to do so.

I know the above is a bold assumption but based on my personal feel (I do not have the stats to back it up), (A3) I think there are a substantial number of cash rich owners in RG and thus if they have to top up (and subject to their view being held as they chose not to and they can afford to), chances are (A4) they can afford to do so.

Before I go further, I also want to qualify that I have a vested interest to get a unit at RG and do hope prices will fall.

Let’s assume this is the (A5) worse case scenario for these existing owners – 3rd phase purchaser (@1500psf and above)*:

Assumptions:-
(A6)1507sf bought @ 1500psf = SGD2.26mio.
(A7) Loan amount (80%) = SGD1.8mio; tenor = 35 years. All-in rate for mortgage = (A8) 1.5%(SIBOR) + 1.0% (margin) = 2.5%
Mortgage payment monthly = SGD6.5K
(A9) Maintenance ~ SGD350 per month (I heard from agents. We assumed it at face value)
Monthly financial commitment of owner = 6850/1507 = 4.5psf per month

Rent Option – At a rental which will not cover monthly obligations
Rent out: Assuming mortgage and maintenance for the unit is 4.5psf per month (psfpm) - this works out to be about SGD6800 mortgage per month.Next, we assume rental for a 1507sf unit is 3psfpm (this works out to be SGD4500 rent per mth for the unit).

Total negative cashflow of the owner is (4.5-3)*12 = 18psf per year.
After two years, owner lose 36psf, on a standardised basis (i.e. psf).

This said, the above standardised loss (i.e. 36psf after 2 years), keeps the owner to retain ownership of the property after 2 years and thus he is still exposed to price risk of market two years later. If he takes the rental route, and after 36psf negative cashflow on his investment (assumes he is not staying), when he renews the rental contract, he would be continue to be exposed to further rental losses or sale loss (i.e. market risk).

What are your views? If you are an owner, would rather to take a negative cashflow for 2 years (cumulatively, 36psf for 2 years) or would you bit the bullet and take a loss immediately (potentially selling at below 1500-36 = 1464psf, given where the transacted pricing is at now ~1200psf based on URA numbers).

I appreciate the above is based on quite a number of assumptions (A1-A9). But would be grateful if you can share a little more of your views and rationale for the proposed behaviour which you may purport.

*This is a repeat post from another thread and I am hoping to get more views from the various expert forummers on the same.

There are property owners (individuals-institutional) who dont have a morgage. When the world economy has reached the bottom, a place of stability, they will look to divest their property and sell it regardless of price. Simply because it is not in their interest to hold property as other invesments will offer greater gains, before property do. These people will sell at market price, when ever they need to cash out.

Then you have the morgage owners. The irony in this cycle is that even the so-called Rich are highly leveraged. This is what is what is amusing to me. So you can have people who are extremely asset rich (many properties) but will be in the same position as a struggling HDB owner who can barely make his morgage payments for his own home. They simply will lack the funds to service negative equity properties. So they will have to sell one or a few properties to cover the payments of the other properties and hope for better times.

The real interesting part in this equation is once interest rates will go up. They will not stay at 2.5% for ever. Imagine when interest rate goes upto 4.5% and they have to pay 8500 to service their installments as opposed to 6500$. This is when we will really see firesales!

The other part is that you presume tenants will be continuous (which I doubt the next 2 years) and rent being stable, and you dont factor in other costs of property ownership.

Additonal costs:
property Tax 10% of Annual Value for units which are rented out
Annual Value = monthly rent x 12
if rent = 4500 per month (annual = 54000)
than property tax = 5400 per annum

Rental income is also taxed! Depending on your tax braket! For me it would be 20%! You can deduct some of the costs, like maitance fee etc, insurance etc.. So to make it easy lets say you end up with 80% of your rental income being taxed as income, after deducting expenses.
80% of 54000 (annual rent) = 43200

If you have to pay 20% income tax on rent, that means you pay:
8640 income tax on the rent.

If you pay 10% it would be 4320.

Obviously it would depend what tax brackét you are in.
So you loose between 1-2 months rent on taxes.

Your Net monthly rental income after Tax obligation (@10%) = 4140 which = 2.76psfpm
Net monthly income @20% tax obligation = 3780 = 2.5psfpm

Total negative cashflow after 1 year @10 Tax obligation=(4.5-2.76)*12=20.88psf

Now if you think about it the 20.88psf is capital lost which should have been put to work to get interest (lets say 4%)
after 2 years compound interest, your real loss is 21.7152 + 22.583808 =44.3

So 1500 (size of unit) times 44= 66,000$ over 2 years that the owner losses by serving his morgage. This is without factoring what the price of property will be in 2 years (depreciation more likely), where the rental income has dropped down too, and increase in morage interest rates.


Rental will continue to go down, I just dont see enough high income jobs being created the next 2-3 years in Singapore to suck up all the current rental units (and upcoming) which ask for 5000$ or more. In order to rent a unit of 5000$ you need a household income that is above 150K per annum. Who ever spends more on rent with that income is a fool :D I do see though that there is plenty of demand between 2000-4500$. That would explain the popularity of Amber road. So besides building too much, it also seems that in Singapore they built beyond the market demand, with too much focus on luxury. I am an interested buyer for rental yield, but it could be a long time before I get active in Singapore. Cést la Vie.

DW
27-04-09, 01:00
Thanks Kalumder. Your post has been helpful.
I appreciate such post, setting out clearly your view and the underlying rationale/assumptions substantiating the same.


There are property owners (individuals-institutional) who dont have a morgage. When the world economy has reached the bottom, a place of stability, they will look to divest their property and sell it regardless of price. Simply because it is not in their interest to hold property as other invesments will offer greater gains, before property do. These people will sell at market price, when ever they need to cash out.

Then you have the morgage owners. The irony in this cycle is that even the so-called Rich are highly leveraged. This is what is what is amusing to me. So you can have people who are extremely asset rich (many properties) but will be in the same position as a struggling HDB owner who can barely make his morgage payments for his own home. They simply will lack the funds to service negative equity properties. So they will have to sell one or a few properties to cover the payments of the other properties and hope for better times.

The real interesting part in this equation is once interest rates will go up. They will not stay at 2.5% for ever. Imagine when interest rate goes upto 4.5% and they have to pay 8500 to service their installments as opposed to 6500$. This is when we will really see firesales!

The other part is that you presume tenants will be continuous (which I doubt the next 2 years) and rent being stable, and you dont factor in other costs of property ownership.

Additonal costs:
property Tax 10% of Annual Value for units which are rented out
Annual Value = monthly rent x 12
if rent = 4500 per month (annual = 54000)
than property tax = 5400 per annum

Rental income is also taxed! Depending on your tax braket! For me it would be 20%! You can deduct some of the costs, like maitance fee etc, insurance etc.. So to make it easy lets say you end up with 80% of your rental income being taxed as income, after deducting expenses.
80% of 54000 (annual rent) = 43200

If you have to pay 20% income tax on rent, that means you pay:
8640 income tax on the rent.

If you pay 10% it would be 4320.

Obviously it would depend what tax brackét you are in.
So you loose between 1-2 months rent on taxes.

Your Net monthly rental income after Tax obligation (@10%) = 4140 which = 2.76psfpm
Net monthly income @20% tax obligation = 3780 = 2.5psfpm

Total negative cashflow after 1 year @10 Tax obligation=(4.5-2.76)*12=20.88psf

Now if you think about it the 20.88psf is capital lost which should have been put to work to get interest (lets say 4%)
after 2 years compound interest, your real loss is 21.7152 + 22.583808 =44.3

So 1500 (size of unit) times 44= 66,000$ over 2 years that the owner losses by serving his morgage. This is without factoring what the price of property will be in 2 years (depreciation more likely), where the rental income has dropped down too, and increase in morage interest rates.


Rental will continue to go down, I just dont see enough high income jobs being created the next 2-3 years in Singapore to suck up all the current rental units (and upcoming) which ask for 5000$ or more. In order to rent a unit of 5000$ you need a household income that is above 150K per annum. Who ever spends more on rent with that income is a fool :D I do see though that there is plenty of demand between 2000-4500$. That would explain the popularity of Amber road. So besides building too much, it also seems that in Singapore they built beyond the market demand, with too much focus on luxury. I am an interested buyer for rental yield, but it could be a long time before I get active in Singapore. Cést la Vie.

kalumder
27-04-09, 01:09
quick add for DW,

lets say you bought property at 2.2 million as in your example the rental is 4500, but the morgage is 6800 with low interest rate. It means you pay an additional 2300 a month to service your morgage.

If you where to sell the unit at 1.8 million, lets say the bank will let you service the 400,000 difference as a loan at 4% at 35 years, than it means you pay only 1800 a month to serve the loan. Which might be better for you financially in the short-term because you have no other options and need cut down on monthly spending. The longer you wait, the more likely your condo will depreciate, rent will fall, and interest rate will crush the morgage payments. It really depends on the holding power of the individual.

DW
27-04-09, 02:40
quick add for DW,

lets say you bought property at 2.2 million as in your example the rental is 4500, but the morgage is 6800 with low interest rate. It means you pay an additional 2300 a month to service your morgage.

If you where to sell the unit at 1.8 million, lets say the bank will let you service the 400,000 difference as a loan at 4% at 35 years, than it means you pay only 1800 a month to serve the loan. Which might be better for you financially in the short-term because you have no other options and need cut down on monthly spending. The longer you wait, the more likely your condo will depreciate, rent will fall, and interest rate will crush the morgage payments. It really depends on the holding power of the individual.

Hi Kalumder,
Thanks for your post. I have a couple of clarifications which I find it rather mind boggling for my simplistic mind on property. Here goes...

Assuming you managed to find a buyer for the house at 1.8mio, attempting to take a 400K loss (in the form of top up?). In your example, I am assuming that the owner is not able to fund the 400K loss on his own and thus will have to take up a bank loan to fund his "top up" losses.

This is the part which I am rather confused.

If the case is may be suggested above, the assumption would then be the 400K loan would be an unsecured lending by the bank (I am assuming all other properties of the owner would be already secured under its respective mortgage loans, and any business of the owner he has would be separately secured otherwise). Unsecured lending in an amount of 400K is a rather large amount and I am not sure if such financing is actually for an individual who has to resort of unsecured financing so as to reduce his expenses. The credit assessment of the individual requesting for such a unsecured loan to fund a property loss which he can pay up - in my layman view, appears to be not very palatable to banks.

In the above, I am assuming the owner is lending entirely on his personal balance without recourse or consideration of his other available assets or business.

If I may then further presume, following my above simple postulation, that such unsecured 400K financing would be difficult to procure, then would it mean that, owners who are cash strapped (i.e. trying to reduce their monthly expenses) are not likely to be able to take that exit route ?

There is probably something fundamental which I am missing completely or not understanding - will be helpful if you can assist clarify my misunderstanding, as the case may be.

Thanks.

kalumder
27-04-09, 11:18
Hi Kalumder,
Thanks for your post. I have a couple of clarifications which I find it rather mind boggling for my simplistic mind on property. Here goes...

Assuming you managed to find a buyer for the house at 1.8mio, attempting to take a 400K loss (in the form of top up?). In your example, I am assuming that the owner is not able to fund the 400K loss on his own and thus will have to take up a bank loan to fund his "top up" losses.

This is the part which I am rather confused.

If the case is may be suggested above, the assumption would then be the 400K loan would be an unsecured lending by the bank (I am assuming all other properties of the owner would be already secured under its respective mortgage loans, and any business of the owner he has would be separately secured otherwise). Unsecured lending in an amount of 400K is a rather large amount and I am not sure if such financing is actually for an individual who has to resort of unsecured financing so as to reduce his expenses. The credit assessment of the individual requesting for such a unsecured loan to fund a property loss which he can pay up - in my layman view, appears to be not very palatable to banks.

In the above, I am assuming the owner is lending entirely on his personal balance without recourse or consideration of his other available assets or business.

If I may then further presume, following my above simple postulation, that such unsecured 400K financing would be difficult to procure, then would it mean that, owners who are cash strapped (i.e. trying to reduce their monthly expenses) are not likely to be able to take that exit route ?

There is probably something fundamental which I am missing completely or not understanding - will be helpful if you can assist clarify my misunderstanding, as the case may be.

Thanks.

Sorry, I made an error, and was not thinking clearly in using the previous example.

Lets presume Rivergate sells now at 1000psf. You cannot meet your morgage payments. So you offload the property at 1,500,000. That means you have to account for 300,000 differnce to the loan (which was 1.8 million, lets ignore fees and taxes for the moment). 300K would cost you only 1,300 a month for 35 years at 4%, nearly half of what your previous expenses was. Unfortunately you loose your 20% down payment on the 2.6 million buying price, and the 300K plus interest over 35 years. Capital destruction at its finest. The only reason to do this is if you are struggling with paying the 2300 difference to your morgage.

If you are in this position, than the bank is screwed either way and already has to account for excess risk. So from their point of view it is about minimzing risk and exposure. The longer they wait, the more likely property prices will plunge and rental will decrease or remain low. Nobody knows what will happen in 5 years or more, nobody has a real clue when property will start to recover. This time it is different. This is a world wide recession. It is clear to all parties now, that the situation is worse than feared 3 months ago. If someone already has problems meeting the difference to the morgage, what will happen when rents drop further or interest rate increases? From the banks point of view the 1300 a month burden will be easier for their client to handle, than 2500 as long as they are young and have a steady income. They dont really care about his situation in 35 years time! The banks dont want to give out unsecured loans, but at the end they might think it is better for them. Think about all the over-priced units coming onto the market within the next 2-3 years and the low rentals they will get compared to their purchase price. So it is very likely the bank will force more top-ups in the future. For people who cannot meet them, they will be forced to sell. Than 2 things happen, they repay the remainder of the loan off in a secured or unsecured loan, or should they become unemployed and unable, they can go through bankruptcy proceedures. If you are cash strapped you will be at the mercy of the banks decision.

code01
27-04-09, 22:37
Sorry, I made an error, and was not thinking clearly in using the previous example.

Lets presume Rivergate sells now at 1000psf. You cannot meet your morgage payments. So you offload the property at 1,500,000. That means you have to account for 300,000 differnce to the loan (which was 1.8 million, lets ignore fees and taxes for the moment). 300K would cost you only 1,300 a month for 35 years at 4%, nearly half of what your previous expenses was. Unfortunately you loose your 20% down payment on the 2.6 million buying price, and the 300K plus interest over 35 years. Capital destruction at its finest. The only reason to do this is if you are struggling with paying the 2300 difference to your morgage.

If you are in this position, than the bank is screwed either way and already has to account for excess risk. So from their point of view it is about minimzing risk and exposure. The longer they wait, the more likely property prices will plunge and rental will decrease or remain low. Nobody knows what will happen in 5 years or more, nobody has a real clue when property will start to recover. This time it is different. This is a world wide recession. It is clear to all parties now, that the situation is worse than feared 3 months ago. If someone already has problems meeting the difference to the morgage, what will happen when rents drop further or interest rate increases? From the banks point of view the 1300 a month burden will be easier for their client to handle, than 2500 as long as they are young and have a steady income. They dont really care about his situation in 35 years time! The banks dont want to give out unsecured loans, but at the end they might think it is better for them. Think about all the over-priced units coming onto the market within the next 2-3 years and the low rentals they will get compared to their purchase price. So it is very likely the bank will force more top-ups in the future. For people who cannot meet them, they will be forced to sell. Than 2 things happen, they repay the remainder of the loan off in a secured or unsecured loan, or should they become unemployed and unable, they can go through bankruptcy proceedures. If you are cash strapped you will be at the mercy of the banks decision.

Hi kalumder, thank you for sharing so much insight. So far have u know of anyone who is in the situation u mentioned and the bank granted him a secured/unsecured loan of 300k to pay off the difference?

If the banks are doing it now, wouldn't they be creating a form of subprime crisis in Singapore :scared-5:

DW
27-04-09, 23:02
Sorry, I made an error, and was not thinking clearly in using the previous example.

Lets presume Rivergate sells now at 1000psf. You cannot meet your morgage payments. So you offload the property at 1,500,000. That means you have to account for 300,000 differnce to the loan (which was 1.8 million, lets ignore fees and taxes for the moment). 300K would cost you only 1,300 a month for 35 years at 4%, nearly half of what your previous expenses was. Unfortunately you loose your 20% down payment on the 2.6 million buying price, and the 300K plus interest over 35 years. Capital destruction at its finest. The only reason to do this is if you are struggling with paying the 2300 difference to your morgage.

If you are in this position, than the bank is screwed either way and already has to account for excess risk. So from their point of view it is about minimzing risk and exposure. The longer they wait, the more likely property prices will plunge and rental will decrease or remain low. Nobody knows what will happen in 5 years or more, nobody has a real clue when property will start to recover. This time it is different. This is a world wide recession. It is clear to all parties now, that the situation is worse than feared 3 months ago. If someone already has problems meeting the difference to the morgage, what will happen when rents drop further or interest rate increases? From the banks point of view the 1300 a month burden will be easier for their client to handle, than 2500 as long as they are young and have a steady income. They dont really care about his situation in 35 years time! The banks dont want to give out unsecured loans, but at the end they might think it is better for them. Think about all the over-priced units coming onto the market within the next 2-3 years and the low rentals they will get compared to their purchase price. So it is very likely the bank will force more top-ups in the future. For people who cannot meet them, they will be forced to sell. Than 2 things happen, they repay the remainder of the loan off in a secured or unsecured loan, or should they become unemployed and unable, they can go through bankruptcy proceedures. If you are cash strapped you will be at the mercy of the banks decision.

Thanks for the clarification. I think I can agree with you on how the end-state would be like, but do have slightly different opinion on how that will pan out.
So, for those who only want to have an idea of what my view of the end state is, it will be same as what Kalumder post as is – you can stop reading.
For those want to know why I think the “process” to get there will be different… here goes…

I agree with you, in principle, that banks restructuring teams typically work on certain stop-loss policy (“S/L policy”). If LTV ratio is breached and, assume further if they get round to request a top up from a defaulted (and continuing) owner and not able to achieve the same, chances are, they will close out their position, to the extent it is absolutely necessary. My view is that banks will only enforce such restructuring unless absolutely necessary. I appreciate some may not share the same view.

They can do this by way of enforcing the security (legal mortgage over the house) over the defaulted owner’s property. Most loan agreements’ foundation is premise on the borrower being the absolute and principal obligor and its obligation shall not be extinguish or diminished in any way, notwithstanding, the foreclosure of the mortgage as the case may warrant to do so. In other words, the Borrower obligation towards the total loan will remain until it is fully repaid. If the proceeds of the sale is insufficient to cover the loan outstanding, the borrower remains liable for the outstanding loan unpaid by such sale proceeds.

This is where my view differs from kalumder. I think it will generally very difficult for banks to extend unsecured lines to persons of such profile. Banks will find it hard to extend credit to persons whom are requesting such lines to pay for such other obligations which he was not able to fulfil as a result of prior enforcement. Some call it “throwing good money after bad ?”. Quite certain this is not a palatable proposition for credit committees. Rather, I think the following will happen instead.

In such instance, if the owner have other forms of properties or valuables, the banks would typically be able to enforce against them as well. This would typically be done together in their court filings for (i) foreclosure on the mortgage, (ii) extinguishing the equity of redemption of the mortgage (if mortgage not already in a deed form), and (iii) enforcement against borrower’s personal effects if mortgage was not already over his personal chattels. If all possible sources of redemption has been exhausted, depending on the amount, the bank may file for bankruptcy against the individual.

The individual continues to be liable for such outstandings due under the home loan. Bankruptcy is a little complex would certainly be beyond the scope of our discussion here. But the net effect is the same- individual remains obligated to repay the balance of the unpaid loan if the sale proceeds of the house is insufficient to repay all monies due under the home loan. But my view is that borrower is not likely to be able to obtain unsecured lines for this purpose – it will be done as an outstanding obligation towards the bank post enforcement. Banks can try to recover outstanding amounts under the loan agreement, by way of bankruptcy filing (i.e. the second possibility as mentioned by kalumder in his/her last paragraph) and/or judicial sale of any valuables of the borrower.

chan_ww
28-04-09, 01:17
Received msg from agent friend saying that they have lobang for RG. Could get at 1k psf. Good deal? or continue to wait?

1k psf seems like a very good deal to me... but there's alot of downward pressure on the property price + tenancy problem for RG (over +300 listing for rental at propertyguru).

Advise pls...

dtrax
28-04-09, 01:39
$1k psf seems to be a gd deal assuming it is of decent layout and facing. Worth buying especially if you are purchasing for stay.

Anymore lobangs at this price?? hehe

sltc
28-04-09, 08:36
Received msg from agent friend saying that they have lobang for RG. Could get at 1k psf. Good deal? or continue to wait?

1k psf seems like a very good deal to me... but there's alot of downward pressure on the property price + tenancy problem for RG (over +300 listing for rental at propertyguru).

Advise pls...
I think $1K psf is a good deal for RG. Can you share your agent contact ? I'm sure his phone will be ringing non-stop !
FYI I have seen a low floor unit at stack 04 (1507 sqft) a few weeks ago and was surprised that the kitchen was very dark when the lights are not on. Some more I viewed the unit at 4pm when the sun was very bright !
So you may want to confirm this when you view the unit if you're interested in stack 04. Should go for high floor for stack 04 but probably at a higher price.

chan_ww
28-04-09, 09:26
Tks!... Let me get more details from the agent 1st. Will share the info if indeed it's a good lobang...:)

august
28-04-09, 10:51
Received msg from agent friend saying that they have lobang for RG. Could get at 1k psf. Good deal? or continue to wait?

1k psf seems like a very good deal to me... but there's alot of downward pressure on the property price + tenancy problem for RG (over +300 listing for rental at propertyguru).

Advise pls...

over 300+ listing for rental? some double listing perhaps.. so half it becomes around 100 to 150 ~

sltc
28-04-09, 13:33
Tks!... Let me get more details from the agent 1st. Will share the info if indeed it's a good lobang...:)
Got a sms from an agent yesterday telling me that prices gone up by ~$150psf. Too much conflicting information, don't know who is right who is wrong. Better don't trust these information too much and use your own judgement.
I got this information from LTA website below. Anyone knows where will be the future Kim Seng MRT station form the Thomson Line ? Near to Great World City ?
========================================================
The Government has announced plans to build two new lines, namely the Thomson Line and the Eastern Region Line. The Thomson Line (TSL) and the Eastern Region Line (ERL) together will add 48km to our rail network. The Government has given the go-ahead for the TSL to be built by 2018, and the ERL by 2020.



http://www.lta.gov.sg/projects/images/eastern_line.jpg

The Eastern Region Line will serve the residential restates of Tanjong Rhu, Marine Parade, Siglap, Bedok South and Upper East Coast and link them to Changi in the east.


http://www.lta.gov.sg/projects/images/thomson_line.jpg

From the heart of Marina Bay, a new MRT line, the Thomson Line, will travel northwards, through the Central Business District and up through Ang Mo Kio all the way to Woodlands connecting estates such as Sin Ming, Kebun Baru, Thomson and Kim Seng which do not now have a direct MRT link.

dmonddd
28-04-09, 14:01
whether the price is $700 or $1000 or $1300 psf, redemption amount at times may be higher than selling price. and hopefully seller is able to top up....if not it would be a situation of happiness and huge disappointment later on.

DW
28-04-09, 23:26
What is your view on how RG prices will continue to fare ??
Some updated numbers as published on URA website.

RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,360,000, 1,711sf, 1,379 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,862,190, 1,539sf, 1,210 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,380,000, 2,077sf, 1,146 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,118,000, 1,496sf, 1,416 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,026,800, 1,690sf, 1,199 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,967,650, 1,711sf, 1,150 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,250,000, 1,033sf, 1,210 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,853,610, 1,550sf, 1,196 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,291,250, 1,033sf, 1,250 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,266,000, 1,055sf, 1,200 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,690,480, 1,496sf, 1,130 psf, Jan 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,200,000, 1,550sf, 1,419 psf, Dec 08,
RIVERGATE, 1,705,000, 1,550sf, 1,100 psf, Dec 08

dmonddd
30-04-09, 09:11
What is your view on how RG prices will continue to fare ??
Some updated numbers as published on URA website.

RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,360,000, 1,711sf, 1,379 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,862,190, 1,539sf, 1,210 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,380,000, 2,077sf, 1,146 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,118,000, 1,496sf, 1,416 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,026,800, 1,690sf, 1,199 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,967,650, 1,711sf, 1,150 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,250,000, 1,033sf, 1,210 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,853,610, 1,550sf, 1,196 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,291,250, 1,033sf, 1,250 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,266,000, 1,055sf, 1,200 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,690,480, 1,496sf, 1,130 psf, Jan 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,200,000, 1,550sf, 1,419 psf, Dec 08,
RIVERGATE, 1,705,000, 1,550sf, 1,100 psf, Dec 08

my view is that price instability as you dont seem to see a consistent psf. Everyone is confused. And prices differ due to unit view, floor, renovations, owner attitude/desperation level (lmao)...etc.

And the psf cant be analyzed in isolation...stack them up against other projects withi D9, D10, D11 and see the % of price drop versus this. You be surprised to see that at these prices you are getting better projects, quality and amenities...no suggestion as this call to buy is specific to buyer unless you are buying mass market condos. if you are buying a condo for investment, think of the targeted tenants' profile.

dmonddd
30-04-09, 09:12
What is your view on how RG prices will continue to fare ??
Some updated numbers as published on URA website.

RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,360,000, 1,711sf, 1,379 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,846,800, 1,539sf, 1,200 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,862,190, 1,539sf, 1,210 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,380,000, 2,077sf, 1,146 psf, Apr 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,118,000, 1,496sf, 1,416 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,854,495, 1,539sf, 1,205 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,026,800, 1,690sf, 1,199 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,967,650, 1,711sf, 1,150 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,239,600, 1,033sf, 1,200 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,250,000, 1,033sf, 1,210 psf, Mar 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,853,610, 1,550sf, 1,196 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,291,250, 1,033sf, 1,250 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,266,000, 1,055sf, 1,200 psf, Feb 09,
RIVERGATE, 1,690,480, 1,496sf, 1,130 psf, Jan 09,
RIVERGATE, 2,200,000, 1,550sf, 1,419 psf, Dec 08,
RIVERGATE, 1,705,000, 1,550sf, 1,100 psf, Dec 08

my view is that price instability as you dont seem to see a consistent psf. Everyone is confused. And prices differ due to unit view, floor, renovations, owner attitude/desperation level (lmao)...etc.

And the psf cant be analyzed in isolation...stack them up against other projects withi D9, D10, D11 and see the % of price drop versus this. You be surprised to see that at these prices you are getting better projects, quality and amenities...no suggestion as this call to buy is specific to buyer unless you are buying mass market condos. if you are buying a condo for investment, think of the targeted tenants' profile.

kalumder
30-04-09, 13:40
I wonder if you had a unit with a great view, and you ripped out the kitchen, bathrooms and warddrobes and spent 100K-150K on it, if you rental would increase significantly. What is another 100k on 2million. IF you can increase your rental income by more than 15-20%. At least, it should be more easier to rent out on the market.

dtrax
01-05-09, 13:09
Latest news, 80 units going @ $1050 psf - http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/373569/for-sale-rivergate

According to the agent, I believe it is the ferrell asset looking to offload. I called him earlier and he mentioned that they are currently gathering interested buyers, with the express of interest letter (no obligations to buy). Buyer will have ot engage their own lawyer.

Units are of 3/4 rms, well I wun dare say if it is true or not after all agents always chut stunt but if it is true and if they really intend to sell to individual buyers, I would say $1050 psf is a pretty gd deal

sltc
04-05-09, 11:00
Latest news, 80 units going @ $1050 psf - http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/373569/for-sale-rivergate

According to the agent, I believe it is the ferrell asset looking to offload. I called him earlier and he mentioned that they are currently gathering interested buyers, with the express of interest letter (no obligations to buy). Buyer will have ot engage their own lawyer.

Units are of 3/4 rms, well I wun dare say if it is true or not after all agents always chut stunt but if it is true and if they really intend to sell to individual buyers, I would say $1050 psf is a pretty gd deal
Hi any new update on RG selling at $1050psf ? The last time my agent gave me a list of units to select and collected my cheque saying that I can get from $950psf to $1000psf but my cheque was later returned. Hope this is not another BS.

latour
04-05-09, 15:40
Hi any new update on RG selling at $1050psf ? The last time my agent gave me a list of units to select and collected my cheque saying that I can get from $950psf to $1000psf but my cheque was later returned. Hope this is not another BS.

Indeed its the same Tactics and BS by some ppl, not just for this RG project...

dtrax
04-05-09, 16:49
Hi any new update on RG selling at $1050psf ? The last time my agent gave me a list of units to select and collected my cheque saying that I can get from $950psf to $1000psf but my cheque was later returned. Hope this is not another BS.

I heard frm my friend when I told him abt this, he also went down to make an offer. Apparently the agent told them the seller (ferrell) had to urgently complete purchase within the wk and the individual buyers some might have loan issues or paper work will take more than a wk. imo, i think this is a bs waste of everyone's time, dunno whether are testing market. But then again these units are the larger 3rms and even buying for rental investment, confirm will have problems fetching a gd rental price given the tons of units available there as well.

sltc
04-05-09, 17:18
I heard frm my friend when I told him abt this, he also went down to make an offer. Apparently the agent told them the seller (ferrell) had to urgently complete purchase within the wk and the individual buyers some might have loan issues or paper work will take more than a wk. imo, i think this is a bs waste of everyone's time, dunno whether are testing market. But then again these units are the larger 3rms and even buying for rental investment, confirm will have problems fetching a gd rental price given the tons of units available there as well.
I see. So those people that can pay 100% cash can get the good deal.

dmonddd
04-05-09, 19:08
dont be too certain tat its a good deal if you are paying 100%

because of too many times property flipped, there is a risk that you may not have a clean title to the property. Not to mention that you later find out that the seller owes the bank an amount more than the selling price.....1% with seller or agent? if seller banks the 1% into his loan account, it will be difficult to get it back when amount to redeem property from bank is higher than selling price.

max 1% burned as next 4% will be kept by seller's lawyers.

:doh:

dmonddd
04-05-09, 19:14
to all agents who are reading this, please do a due diligence on your seller as the buyer is using his hard earned savings to buy the property.
maybe not for those rich investors/foreigners....

but still it is all about retribution. Agents to do their part but ensuring the parties they representing are genuine and have legal title to transfer. otherwise agents will be dragged into legal case for negligence.

those days are over when you dont ask seller any question. nowadays, better do so to ensure everyone is safe. even how well you know the seller but the sale before then may not be handled by you and the previous agent may have screwed up.. but you will be the one facing the problem.

sharp
05-05-09, 00:05
http://amyng.myweb.sg/186.

Is this too good to be true?

gfoo
05-05-09, 00:18
http://amyng.myweb.sg/186.

Is this too good to be true?

Which one - the chick or the $1150psf? She's more appealing than the price leh -$1150 hardly considered a lelong

dtrax
05-05-09, 00:28
Yah 1150 hardly consider lelong, but if buying for stay and facing is gd might be worth it.. if you have some extra cash to burn

Property_Owner
05-05-09, 00:41
My friend just sms me. He sold another of his RG @ 1400psf.:scared-4:

sltc
05-05-09, 00:44
http://amyng.myweb.sg/186.

Is this too good to be true?
Tried calling her regarding the $1150psf unit but no response. Not sure if it's true. Another agent told me that some agents advertise at a lower psf than the owners asking price (without telling the owners) just to get potential buyers' contacts and also hope that sellers will sell at lower price after seeing these advertisements.

sltc
05-05-09, 00:51
My friend just sms me. He sold another of his RG @ 1400psf.:scared-4:
$1400psf is very ex. Must be a very high floor unit.
2 or 3 bedroom ? Which Floor ?

dmonddd
05-05-09, 01:16
no offence to agents.
have anyone been charged for misselling? banks paid a price for this - minibonds
what about agents? their licences or business should be revoked or closed

getting the correct financing margin from bank is difficult.
Same for valuers. and these jokers i hope they are not understand the pain the buyers are going through.

i hope some property investors will throw them a letter from their lawyer and offer to purchase all the properties and see whether these agents can deliver....if they dont have the products/properties in hand, can this be seen as misrepresentation/act of fraud

bargain hunter
05-05-09, 01:24
Is your friend an owner or agent? I have heard that several units were transacted at 1300+ to low 1400 but is this true? Have not seen that many lodged in the caveats. So far only 2, one at 1379 and one at 1416psf.




My friend just sms me. He sold another of his RG @ 1400psf.:scared-4:

Property_Owner
05-05-09, 01:34
Is your friend an owner or agent? I have heard that several units were transacted at 1300+ to low 1400 but is this true? Have not seen that many lodged in the caveats. So far only 2, one at 1379 and one at 1416psf.

Owner. 2nd unit sold for me. Please...don't ask if i'm a agent or not:)

sharp
05-05-09, 07:07
Which one - the chick or the $1150psf? She's more appealing than the price leh -$1150 hardly considered a lelong

heh heh...:) she mentioned that she has 5 stacks including stack 9 high floor which has the best view...(furthermore, the price is negotiable)

how do we check if agents really have their advertised units to sell?

sharp
05-05-09, 07:13
dont be too certain tat its a good deal if you are paying 100%

because of too many times property flipped, there is a risk that you may not have a clean title to the property. Not to mention that you later find out that the seller owes the bank an amount more than the selling price.....1% with seller or agent? if seller banks the 1% into his loan account, it will be difficult to get it back when amount to redeem property from bank is higher than selling price.

max 1% burned as next 4% will be kept by seller's lawyers.

:doh:

can they really get away with this? sounds pretty scary.... how do we do a background check on the seller / agent before any transaction? the agent will probably try his best to keep the identity of the seller confidential which leaves us little time to do any checks..

Property_Owner
05-05-09, 09:29
Owner. 2nd unit sold for me. Please...don't ask if i'm a agent or not:)

Paiseh. Not me. I mean my friend. :)

kal
05-05-09, 10:44
before u issue the deposit cheque, ask for ownership proved and ask yr agt to do a bankruptcy search on the owner. Tats all u can do. If still scared here and there, either keep yr $$ under yr pillow or buy direct from HDB , sure safe !!

bargain hunter
05-05-09, 12:54
ok, another caveat lodged today at 1349psf. seems like prices range from 1200 to 1400+ recently.



Paiseh. Not me. I mean my friend. :)

teddybear
05-05-09, 13:54
Been looking and looking and nobody want to sell below $1200 psf for a high floor and good view unit. Damn xian! People keep saying price will sure drop but yet I still didn't see any sign of the price really dropping. Seen 1 unit on 38th floor and owner asking for $1800 psf. :eek:


Is your friend an owner or agent? I have heard that several units were transacted at 1300+ to low 1400 but is this true? Have not seen that many lodged in the caveats. So far only 2, one at 1379 and one at 1416psf.

dmonddd
05-05-09, 16:25
before u issue the deposit cheque, ask for ownership proved and ask yr agt to do a bankruptcy search on the owner. Tats all u can do. If still scared here and there, either keep yr $$ under yr pillow or buy direct from HDB , sure safe !!

not to be too worried. btw agent is normally acting for seller. co-broke agent will mess things up as seller's agent will rather sell direct and avoid sharing of commissions. too many cooks spoil the broth. and it will be a chasing price game as each time you present a cheque, the price escalates.

once you are keen on property, engage lawyer to do search and enter option and dangle cheque with reply within an hour - deal or no deal? why seller needs so long time to think. genuine sellers will be happy to see lawyer engaged by buyer as buyer is genuine as well.

otherwise move on....move on and move on. Keen sellers or geunine agents will make sure that deal goes through. Fishing sellers will be wasting everyone's time by asking for the sky.. like one of my friends said, slow slow wait

proud owner
05-05-09, 16:28
wasting everyone's time by asking for the sky.. like one of my friends said, slow slow wait


or Wait Long Long

dmonddd
05-05-09, 17:02
wasting everyone's time by asking for the sky.. like one of my friends said, slow slow wait


or Wait Long Long

buyer wait long long...seller slow slow wait. both dont move....

but lets be realistic. try walking into a bank and ask for financing. also check with valuer. part of equation- who's targeting this RG? locals for own occupation or foreigners. my agent friend was telling me that nowadays the interested buyers are mainly locals.

dun forget foreign investors need to weigh their returns on properties in SG and other Asian countries - Hong Kong, Shanghai.

DW
05-05-09, 21:12
no offence to agents.
have anyone been charged for misselling? banks paid a price for this - minibonds
what about agents? their licences or business should be revoked or closed

getting the correct financing margin from bank is difficult.
Same for valuers. and these jokers i hope they are not understand the pain the buyers are going through.

i hope some property investors will throw them a letter from their lawyer and offer to purchase all the properties and see whether these agents can deliver....if they dont have the products/properties in hand, can this be seen as misrepresentation/act of fraud

Technically speaking, the agents can only be at best be viewed as invitation to treat. Given how deals are done in Singapore, it will be difficult to opine on whether a contract was indeed formed in which case, if you can pursue anything under BoC at all.

In terms of duties, the agent is probably acting for the seller and thus fiduciary duties will be out of the window. Again, you can perhaps try your best luck on duty of care - you will have to sue on equity and it will be difficult to prove.

DW
05-05-09, 21:30
Received a call today (just got back from overseas) from agent on Ferrell looking to offload at 1000psf. Conditions of such price offered are:-

1. Minimum purchase is 5 units;
2. It has to be cash purchase.

I asked why Ferrell is not willing to consider a leveraged purchase, if buyer is able to raise financing within say a week. Besides,you (your lawyer) will at least a couple of days to do the relevant searches and stuffs... ... Was told Ferrell needed to unload these units soon and need the payments to be made in full asap.

I am not sure Ferrell will necessarily get their deals done faster this way. Their approach is likely to limit the pool of pre-qualified buyers (i.e. basically buyers whom will be paying up the full sum from equity) and thus might delay or even kill their sale process to achieve the desired sales number.

Besides, I am really wondering why there is such a need to get the deals done that fast. Any ideas ?

kalumder
05-05-09, 22:34
Received a call today (just got back from overseas) from agent on Ferrell looking to offload at 1000psf. Conditions of such price offered are:-

1. Minimum purchase is 5 units;
2. It has to be cash purchase.

I asked why Ferrell is not willing to consider a leveraged purchase, if buyer is able to raise financing within say a week. Besides,you (your lawyer) will at least a couple of days to do the relevant searches and stuffs... ... Was told Ferrell needed to unload these units soon and need the payments to be made in full asap.

I am not sure Ferrell will necessarily get their deals done faster this way. Their approach is likely to limit the pool of pre-qualified buyers (i.e. basically buyers whom will be paying up the full sum from equity) and thus might delay or even kill their sale process to achieve the desired sales number.

Besides, I am really wondering why there is such a need to get the deals done that fast. Any ideas ?


There are many reasons.

1) The obvious one being, that Ferrell might have a liquidity problem and needs cash.

2) They are in a hurry because they might fear that if they dont offload their units quick enough they have to lower the price even more. They bought 80 units, and I doubt that it easy to offload them in the current market. Transaction volume is low.

3)http://www.ferrell.com.sg/Ferrell_asiafunds_FPREIF.html
The objective of this Sub-Fund is to achieve returns of 10% - 15% per annum through investments in properties with medium to long term capital appreciation potential.

It does not take a genius to see that they wont hit that target in the next 5 years with property. So maybe they prefer to return money to the investors. While they can still get a decent price or not loose too much money.

teddybear
05-05-09, 22:58
All sort of conflicting info regarding this Ferrell holdings of RG lately. If they really needs liquidity and money, they should just sell as & when they have buyers, why resort to so many conditions? If they impose so many conditions, then doesn't seem like they are in a hurry to get the money. What I have heard is that they prefer to sell all at 1 go to another institutional investor (another version of the story). May be all other stories are cooked up by agents to simulate interest and to get cheque so that they can go to find other sellers to pitch to?


Received a call today (just got back from overseas) from agent on Ferrell looking to offload at 1000psf. Conditions of such price offered are:-

1. Minimum purchase is 5 units;
2. It has to be cash purchase.

I asked why Ferrell is not willing to consider a leveraged purchase, if buyer is able to raise financing within say a week. Besides,you (your lawyer) will at least a couple of days to do the relevant searches and stuffs... ... Was told Ferrell needed to unload these units soon and need the payments to be made in full asap.

I am not sure Ferrell will necessarily get their deals done faster this way. Their approach is likely to limit the pool of pre-qualified buyers (i.e. basically buyers whom will be paying up the full sum from equity) and thus might delay or even kill their sale process to achieve the desired sales number.

Besides, I am really wondering why there is such a need to get the deals done that fast. Any ideas ?

rivergate
06-05-09, 11:00
hi, came across a similar approach by agent on the selling by batch of units and urgent settlement - what is the name of the agent who called you please.. would be good to try and find out if this is really for real so that we can together assess how real is this opportunity. thanks

DW
06-05-09, 14:59
hi, came across a similar approach by agent on the selling by batch of units and urgent settlement - what is the name of the agent who called you please.. would be good to try and find out if this is really for real so that we can together assess how real is this opportunity. thanks

someone from KF.

qwertyuiop
06-05-09, 18:05
I was informed by someone from PN that all these are not true. That agent told me to feel free to call up ferrell to check. :beats-me-man:


someone from KF.

Property_Owner
06-05-09, 18:20
I was informed by someone from PN that all these are not true. That agent told me to feel free to call up ferrell to check. :beats-me-man:

Do call and let us know. Thanks

qwertyuiop
06-05-09, 22:09
I didn't bother to call since I wasn't interested in 3/4 br :)


Do call and let us know. Thanks

rivergate
07-05-09, 01:09
if its KF then its quite interesting cos less likely to be fake. could anybody provide a contact please. many thanks.:)

kal
07-05-09, 10:01
if its KF then its quite interesting cos less likely to be fake. could anybody provide a contact please. many thanks.:)

wat so special about KF huh??

Property_Owner
07-05-09, 12:17
if its KF then its quite interesting cos less likely to be fake. could anybody provide a contact please. many thanks.:)

Why say tat?

august
07-05-09, 13:30
what is or who is KF ?????

bargain hunter
07-05-09, 13:48
KF is Knight Frank.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_CFFCD2BEEA9AD819482575AE002E9C81/$file/CL.newsrelease.7May2009.pdf?openelement

Based on this estimate, between 9 to 13 units did not pay up but otherwise, everyone else did.

qwertyuiop
07-05-09, 19:43
Are you from KF?:)


if its KF then its quite interesting cos less likely to be fake. could anybody provide a contact please. many thanks.:)

DW
10-05-09, 15:01
Hi guys,

I have not done any specific studies to back my claim, and in what I referred to herein are entirely based on my qualitative observations.

When I look at the listings recently, it appears the asking prices have increased somewhat. I have also learned from some of my friends whom are owners of a number of properties, they are now increasing their prices. When I approached to clarify what gave them the confidence in their ability to fetch higher prices, their response was entirely empirical. They have observed / received higher bids for their properties and have also observed(which I cannot verify, given these are their own observations and not mine) higher volume and higher prices been transacted. I am under the impression this is more prominent for properties in D9,10,11 and 15.

I used to see adverts posting for 1200psf for a number of D9 properties and recently, newspaper and online adverts asking price seems to have increased slightly. Also, when I am getting more agents telling me: "prices have increased over the past month... and transaction volumes have firmed up quite a bit as well"

I have my views on this and why this is happening.. but would like to hear any other inputs or views you guys may have ... ... I guess there are two points to this

1. Are prices and transaction volume generally on the climb (very slightly?)
2. IF yes to Pt. 1 , why so ?

bargain hunter
10-05-09, 16:57
I agree with you DW. On pt 1, yes, very slight increase in price and vol is indeed being observed in the more prime districts because prices crashed the most. 2, a likely reason is simply that those who wanted to sell at 1200 had been able to find buyers and were cleared out. At the same time, because the stock market had rebounded strongly (not sure whether sustainable or not), the remaining sellers would tend to shift up their asking price since they have paid up and some have found tenants and thus not as desperate. Note however that these are asking prices that are shifted up and not necessarily will be translated to transactions until some buyers decide to buy at say 1300 and 1400 which we are seeing but still small in numbers and only on very special units.





Hi guys,

I have not done any specific studies to back my claim, and in what I referred to herein are entirely based on my qualitative observations.

When I look at the listings recently, it appears the asking prices have increased somewhat. I have also learned from some of my friends whom are owners of a number of properties, they are now increasing their prices. When I approached to clarify what gave them the confidence in their ability to fetch higher prices, their response was entirely empirical. They have observed / received higher bids for their properties and have also observed(which I cannot verify, given these are their own observations and not mine) higher volume and higher prices been transacted. I am under the impression this is more prominent for properties in D9,10,11 and 15.

I used to see adverts posting for 1200psf for a number of D9 properties and recently, newspaper and online adverts asking price seems to have increased slightly. Also, when I am getting more agents telling me: "prices have increased over the past month... and transaction volumes have firmed up quite a bit as well"

I have my views on this and why this is happening.. but would like to hear any other inputs or views you guys may have ... ... I guess there are two points to this

1. Are prices and transaction volume generally on the climb (very slightly?)
2. IF yes to Pt. 1 , why so ?

DW
11-05-09, 01:17
I agree with you DW. On pt 1, yes, very slight increase in price and vol is indeed being observed in the more prime districts because prices crashed the most. 2, a likely reason is simply that those who wanted to sell at 1200 had been able to find buyers and were cleared out. At the same time, because the stock market had rebounded strongly (not sure whether sustainable or not), the remaining sellers would tend to shift up their asking price since they have paid up and some have found tenants and thus not as desperate. Note however that these are asking prices that are shifted up and not necessarily will be translated to transactions until some buyers decide to buy at say 1300 and 1400 which we are seeing but still small in numbers and only on very special units.

Thanks for your input. On a side note, are you are an agent, Bargain Hunter?

bargain hunter
11-05-09, 01:59
most certainly not :tsk-tsk: . As I am bargain hunting, I talk to a lot of agents and encountered similar experiences that you have. Some of the above explanations were also derived from the ones I trust more.




Thanks for your input. On a side note, are you are an agent, Bargain Hunter?

dmonddd
11-05-09, 02:08
if you all are hunting for good bargains, stand down if prices moved twice.

it's similar to retail products in shopping complex, discounts would be more.

Was at home fair in singapore expo over the weekend, and can see the pressure on sales. but see some new young houseowners and upgraders as well. most booths are empty with sales guys very relaxed.

Interior design booths, slightly busy.

stalingrad
14-05-09, 10:17
Very close now. a caveat appears in today BT showing a rivergate unit sold at 1045 psf. RG will fall below 1000 before september.

smallant
14-05-09, 12:19
You are most right ! But for 1,711 sq ft at $1042 psf !
If anyone out there got smaller unit at below $1000 psf at rivergate, pse PM me. :)

HP65
14-05-09, 14:09
Very close now. a caveat appears in today BT showing a rivergate unit sold at 1045 psf. RG will fall below 1000 before september.

Could this be DPS owner now taking up financing? I think so. Most units are still asking for $1250 and above.

If buying for own stay, i think ok to hunt now. As you may not find the same unit u like again. But buying for investment, advisable to wait awhile more, when more projects TOP.

Incidentally, with the recent market rally, many owners has either upped their asking px from 2 months ago or withdrawn their unit from the market. I wonder if some them are regretting now that it seems the stock mkt is correcting and if they will reduce their asking. Buyers should now tell the agents that stock mkt is correcting, we want to offer $200 psf lower. For those who rejected offers, thinking a recovery is in sight, I think its a good lesson.

Allthepies
14-05-09, 14:27
market tumbles again when everybody is thinking recovery is in sight... IMHO the property always lag the stock market, so a recovery in property prices won't come soon...

bargain hunter
15-05-09, 13:54
I guess some of our observations have indeed translated to higher transaction prices but I wonder who is so bullish, paid 1467psf for a 2 bedroom?! Latest transactions from URA website:

RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment12,556,9001,8941,350Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,900,0001,5391,234Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,844,6641,4641,260Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,379,7001,0231,349Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,846,8001,5391,200Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,500,0001,0231,467Apr-09RIVERGATE (javascript:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment12,360,0001,7111,379Apr-09



Hi guys,

I have not done any specific studies to back my claim, and in what I referred to herein are entirely based on my qualitative observations.

When I look at the listings recently, it appears the asking prices have increased somewhat. I have also learned from some of my friends whom are owners of a number of properties, they are now increasing their prices. When I approached to clarify what gave them the confidence in their ability to fetch higher prices, their response was entirely empirical. They have observed / received higher bids for their properties and have also observed(which I cannot verify, given these are their own observations and not mine) higher volume and higher prices been transacted. I am under the impression this is more prominent for properties in D9,10,11 and 15.

I used to see adverts posting for 1200psf for a number of D9 properties and recently, newspaper and online adverts asking price seems to have increased slightly. Also, when I am getting more agents telling me: "prices have increased over the past month... and transaction volumes have firmed up quite a bit as well"

I have my views on this and why this is happening.. but would like to hear any other inputs or views you guys may have ... ... I guess there are two points to this

1. Are prices and transaction volume generally on the climb (very slightly?)
2. IF yes to Pt. 1 , why so ?

bargain hunter
15-05-09, 14:09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$2,556,900 1,894sq ft 1,350psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$1,900,000 1,539sq ft 1,234psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$1,844,664 1,464sq ft 1,260psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$1,379,700 1,023sq ft 1,349psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$1,846,800 1,539sq ft 1,200psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$1,500,000 1,023sq ft 1,467psf Apr-09
RIVERGATE (http://javascript%3cb%3e%3c/b%3E:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)$2,360,000 1,711sq ft 1,379psf Apr-09



I guess some of our observations have indeed translated to higher transaction prices but I wonder who is so bullish, paid 1467psf for a 2 bedroom?! Latest transactions from URA website:

RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment12,556,9001,8941,350Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,900,0001,5391,234Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,844,6641,4641,260Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,379,7001,0231,349Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,846,8001,5391,200Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment11,500,0001,0231,467Apr-09RIVERGATE (http://javascript<b></b>:popUp('submitSISV.do?project_name=RIVERGATE&street_name=ROBERTSON%20QUAY&property_type_code=04');)ROBERTSON QUAYApartment12,360,0001,7111,379Apr-09

DW
15-05-09, 23:23
Very close now. a caveat appears in today BT showing a rivergate unit sold at 1045 psf. RG will fall below 1000 before september.

Nice information. I tried to locate the referred 1042psf filing on URA but appears to be not available there. Any ideas why it might show up in BT, as you have referenced from, and not frm URA site?

dazzle
20-05-09, 00:24
Nice information. I tried to locate the referred 1042psf filing on URA but appears to be not available there. Any ideas why it might show up in BT, as you have referenced from, and not frm URA site?

Probably because they have not lodge the caveat yet. Developer/Agents know that people will refer to the URA site so they try to delay lodging the caveat for those lower psf one as much as possible. So probably it will show up in a month's time or so. Sneaky...

home-run
20-05-09, 21:22
**RIVERGATE UNITS BY L**** !!! (SUPPOSED HUSH SALE!!!)

**OVER 80+ BEST FACING UNITS !!! 3/4BR & PENTHOUSES!!!
~~~HURRY~~~

**CALL ME FOR PRICING AND ENQUIRIES NW!!!
**VIEWING BY APPT ONLY!!
MOBILE : 81680241:scared-1:

focus
21-05-09, 00:12
**RIVERGATE UNITS BY L**** !!! (SUPPOSED HUSH SALE!!!)

**OVER 80+ BEST FACING UNITS !!! 3/4BR & PENTHOUSES!!!
~~~HURRY~~~

**CALL ME FOR PRICING AND ENQUIRIES NW!!!
**VIEWING BY APPT ONLY!!
MOBILE : 81680241:scared-1:

What's the price psf you are looking at?

home-run
21-05-09, 21:48
bro mkt rate lah...doesn't seem like L**** wants to firesale their units...moreover that area along robertson quay is quite hot now with the sales of wharf residences and martin place residences...

if u are keen to view, do feel free to contact me..more than 80 units for u to choose from.:D

teddybear
21-05-09, 22:36
What is the mkt rate then?


bro mkt rate lah...doesn't seem like L**** wants to firesale their units...moreover that area along robertson quay is quite hot now with the sales of wharf residences and martin place residences...

if u are keen to view, do feel free to contact me..more than 80 units for u to choose from.:D

kalumder
21-05-09, 23:02
bro mkt rate lah...doesn't seem like L**** wants to firesale their units...moreover that area along robertson quay is quite hot now with the sales of wharf residences and martin place residences...

if u are keen to view, do feel free to contact me..more than 80 units for u to choose from.:D

judging by rental 850psf seems like a fair price. Will leave a net-ROI of 4%. Offcourse the problem is that you cant rent out a 1500sf rivergate appartert at an average 6000 a month. So market price should be lower. It will be fun to see how a few more months with no rental income or even lower rental income will have impact on the market. The holding power is dwindling. In three months asking price for rental went down on average 15% in Rivergate. It is still dropping.

Many agents are comedians in disguise, you most be one of them too. Trying to offload 80 units, and expect high psf, haha very amusing.

KT_Lim
21-05-09, 23:07
U are also amusing as well.
Where's your fren J-dog who says he will chop if price does not go down to 700psf? What happens if a few more mths pple still have holding power - u gonna revise your ''expectations'' again. Really a clown!:tongue3:



judging by rental 850psf seems like a fair price. Will leave a net-ROI of 4%. Offcourse the problem is that you cant rent out a 1500sf rivergate appartert at an average 6000 a month. So market price should be lower. It will be fun to see how a few more months with no rental income or even lower rental income will have impact on the market. The holding power is dwindling. In three months asking price for rental went down on average 15% in Rivergate. It is still dropping.

Many agents are comedians in disguise, you most be one of them too. Trying to offload 80 units, and expect high psf, haha very amusing.

Douk
21-05-09, 23:15
Probably because they have not lodge the caveat yet. Developer/Agents know that people will refer to the URA site so they try to delay lodging the caveat for those lower psf one as much as possible. So probably it will show up in a month's time or so. Sneaky...

isnt caveat lodged by the solicitor ?

kalumder
21-05-09, 23:58
U are also amusing as well.
Where's your fren J-dog who says he will chop if price does not go down to 700psf? What happens if a few more mths pple still have holding power - u gonna revise your ''expectations'' again. Really a clown!:tongue3:


no problem, with that. I am not saying everyone will have problems. How ever the problem will increase for landlords with morgages as rents continue to drop. Wait for June/July/August when the school year ends, and more expats will leave Singapore than come in this year. Then latest by September you will have another wave of ready to rent condo´s fighting for tenants. Lets not forget the rest of the condo´s which are scheduled to reach top the next 6 months. It will be a long time (5 or more years) before rents reach levels of 2007/2008.

orange
22-05-09, 00:22
in an efficient mkt, yes, home prices will be pegged to rents, which should ideally be 2-3% above prime loan rate. if we lived in a perfect world. however in the real world during a speculative boom, all fundamentals go out the window. just a macro and cynica

bargain hunter
22-05-09, 00:52
yeah, i'm glad someone still remember's J-dog's hot dog bet. Kal, you are indeed amusing. Lippo has already sold more than 20 units at 1400+ to 1500+psf. The current asking price is still 1400+ to 1500+psf and there are buyers. I was a potential buyer but now that asking and transaction prices are up, just have to give up.




U are also amusing as well.
Where's your fren J-dog who says he will chop if price does not go down to 700psf? What happens if a few more mths pple still have holding power - u gonna revise your ''expectations'' again. Really a clown!:tongue3:

kalumder
22-05-09, 02:15
yeah, i'm glad someone still remember's J-dog's hot dog bet. Kal, you are indeed amusing. Lippo has already sold more than 20 units at 1400+ to 1500+psf. The current asking price is still 1400+ to 1500+psf and there are buyers. I was a potential buyer but now that asking and transaction prices are up, just have to give up.


these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

bargain hunter
22-05-09, 08:30
Obviously, the Lippo units have just been released and some sold and will not appear in official documents yet. I got to know of this because I have been enquiring about the units and was interested to buy at lower prices. I was given a list of sold and unsold units and the prices still being asked for the unsold units. You can contact the people from knight frank who have been tasked to sell the Lippo units (on sat's classified ads) to find out more and confirm it.

I do agree with you that we should wait for the buyer for Suites @ Central to see if he is able to raise the sum and for more projects to TOP and cause a supply glut. The buying opportunities are many months down the road and not now. Even then, I find your 850psf target very amusing.






these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

Property_Owner
22-05-09, 09:45
judging by rental 850psf seems like a fair price. Will leave a net-ROI of 4%. Offcourse the problem is that you cant rent out a 1500sf rivergate appartert at an average 6000 a month. So market price should be lower. It will be fun to see how a few more months with no rental income or even lower rental income will have impact on the market. The holding power is dwindling. In three months asking price for rental went down on average 15% in Rivergate. It is still dropping.

Many agents are comedians in disguise, you most be one of them too. Trying to offload 80 units, and expect high psf, haha very amusing.

Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!:doh:

jitkiat
22-05-09, 10:16
Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!:doh:

True. Prime freehold properties are typically bought for capital appreciation, not rental yield. The fact that 98% of owners have paid means most owners are rich, one unit of Rivergate just one peanut.

stalingrad
22-05-09, 10:18
Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!:doh:

850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

qwertyuiop
22-05-09, 10:41
900psf? I think units will be snapped up even at 1000psf. No?


850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

vin002
22-05-09, 11:01
900psf? I think units will be snapped up even at 1000psf. No?

Haha... True... Maybe a lot are waiting to enter at 1010psf...

teddybear
22-05-09, 11:01
OK, I offer $1000 psf for any unit above 20th floor in Rivergate stack #05. Any seller? :cool: (Dream and reality are 2 different stories.)


850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

stalingrad
22-05-09, 11:05
OK, I offer $1000 psf for any unit above 20th floor in Rivergate stack #05. Any seller? :cool:
Hold your horse. I am sure you can buy your dream unit above the 30th floor at 900psf in late 2010.

I am not bluffing. of the 500+ units in this project, 200 are for sale and 300 are for rent. It seems that no one is interested in living in there. the rental yield is dropping like a rock. Plus, a deluge of other rental units in condos in the same area are going to be completed in the short and immediate terms. Against this backdrop, we are seeing a flood of expats leaving the country, having just been laid off. Who are going to rent units in the river valley area to keep rental yield high? aliens from mars?

Mark may words, 900psf at end of 2010.

orange
22-05-09, 11:11
i'm a bear. but I also recognise that yields are not indicative of prices in a speculative mkt. if prices drop again, it has little to do with oversupply, low rents, etc. more to do with global economy and how investor pockets affected.

orange
22-05-09, 11:14
Few people buy stocks for dividends. Many buy for cap appreciation. Same goes for investor-grade property. Only difference is the illiquidity of property, so deeper pockets are a must. Rental yields only affect investors with borderline affordability.

bargain hunter
22-05-09, 11:33
Rivergate prices seem to indeed be more driven by stock market sentiment than rental yield. Good place for indonesians to just park their cash and go and touch whenever they are in Singapore.

kalumder
22-05-09, 12:35
Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!:doh:


Lets say in 10 years your psf doubles (100% increase). As the next bubble wont start within the next 5 years. That means your yield (compounded avg) has been 7%. But wait, you are not renting it out, because it is to low. So you are actually paying money, even if you did not buy with a morgage. You still need to pay property tax and condo fees, so now your avg yield is between 5.5-6%. This also requires to always hit the market at the right time. If you bought in 2007 you will not double the psf in the next 10 years.
From 1997-2007 the psf did not double, far from it. these people lost money in real terms.

Now with a morgage the numbers get even more ridiculous, and the avg yield will be alot lower.

You see before 1997 capital appreciation made sense in Singapore. How ever now Singapore is a developed country and is already in the top 10 cities of the world. So the question is, do I take 2million and spread them over Bangkok, Shanghai, and Ho Chi Minh, and will I get an avg better return? Or do I buy a rivergate condo. I think yes, as these countries offer a larger % gain in GDP. While properties may never reach price levels in Singapore, the potential for gain is alot higher, since these are developing economies. Even if one of the economies goes into turmoil the other 2 should still avg out higher.

That is why rental yields are more important in a developed country, ask the Europeans, Americans, and the Japanese.


btw I rather rent it out, cash flow is cash flow, and always better than none. What investor gives away free money, a trust fund baby who cant calculate ROI?

Regulators
22-05-09, 12:51
stop talking cock with your butt speculation lah....how do you know few people buy stocks for dividends, did you carry out a survey? Of course investors would buy stocks for cap appreciation, just a matter of whether it is long or short term. some people buy certain stocks for long term capital appreciation (based on fundamentals) whilst enjoying dividend yield during that period while other buy stocks of high volatility for trading purposes. I know of stock brokers who park their money in certain counters for the long term for good dividend yields coz some stocks are simply dividend stocks. I think you should go back to school lah....



Few people buy stocks for dividends. Many buy for cap appreciation. Same goes for investor-grade property. Only difference is the illiquidity of property, so deeper pockets are a must. Rental yields only affect investors with borderline affordability.

Property_Owner
22-05-09, 13:33
Lets say in 10 years your psf doubles (100% increase). As the next bubble wont start within the next 5 years. That means your yield (compounded avg) has been 7%. But wait, you are not renting it out, because it is to low. So you are actually paying money, even if you did not buy with a morgage. You still need to pay property tax and condo fees, so now your avg yield is between 5.5-6%. This also requires to always hit the market at the right time. If you bought in 2007 you will not double the psf in the next 10 years.
From 1997-2007 the psf did not double, far from it. these people lost money in real terms.

Now with a morgage the numbers get even more ridiculous, and the avg yield will be alot lower.

You see before 1997 capital appreciation made sense in Singapore. How ever now Singapore is a developed country and is already in the top 10 cities of the world. So the question is, do I take 2million and spread them over Bangkok, Shanghai, and Ho Chi Minh, and will I get an avg better return? Or do I buy a rivergate condo. I think yes, as these countries offer a larger % gain in GDP. While properties may never reach price levels in Singapore, the potential for gain is alot higher, since these are developing economies. Even if one of the economies goes into turmoil the other 2 should still avg out higher.

That is why rental yields are more important in a developed country, ask the Europeans, Americans, and the Japanese.


btw I rather rent it out, cash flow is cash flow, and always better than none. What investor gives away free money, a trust fund baby who cant calculate ROI?

Talk so much for what! People like to ask me why I have so many cars when I can only drive one at a time:doh:

bargain hunter
23-05-09, 09:30
Not sure if the article today in BT is sufficient to document my point and add more validity to it but here's a summary:


Published May 23, 2009
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Ferrell puts 80 RiverGate units back on market
30 to 40 apartments have since been sold at private preview
By EMILYN YAP


FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia's Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale, BT understands.

According to agents, a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up. The 545-unit freehold condominium in the Robertson Quay area received Temporary Occupation Permit in March, and was a joint development between CapitaLand and Hwa Hong Corporation.
The apartments on sale are spread over several floors and comprise three-bedders, four-bedders and penthouses. They are selling at $1,450 - $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf.



these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

vin002
23-05-09, 11:14
Not sure if the article today in BT is sufficient to document my point and add more validity to it but here's a summary:


Published May 23, 2009
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
Ferrell puts 80 RiverGate units back on market
30 to 40 apartments have since been sold at private preview
By EMILYN YAP


FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia's Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale, BT understands.

According to agents, a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up. The 545-unit freehold condominium in the Robertson Quay area received Temporary Occupation Permit in March, and was a joint development between CapitaLand and Hwa Hong Corporation.
The apartments on sale are spread over several floors and comprise three-bedders, four-bedders and penthouses. They are selling at $1,450 - $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf.

Base on this article, the chances of RG hitting $1Kpsf and below is very remote. In addition, I noticed the asking prices of some Condo already adjusted upwards. Good Luck to all that are still on the sideline.

KT_Lim
23-05-09, 11:53
Haaa.... I like that. nice one :cheers6:



Talk so much for what! People like to ask me why I have so many cars when I can only drive one at a time:doh:

firec
23-05-09, 14:56
Base on this article, the chances of RG hitting $1Kpsf and below is very remote. In addition, I noticed the asking prices of some Condo already adjusted upwards. Good Luck to all that are still on the sideline.
So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/ferrell-puts-80-rivergate-units-back-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

jitkiat
23-05-09, 16:44
So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/ferrell-puts-80-rivergate-units-back-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

.... a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up (means > 1,380 psf) ...

bargain hunter
23-05-09, 22:54
Look out for the caveats in a few months time for confirmation that at least 30 units were transacted at 1380 to 1550psf since they claimed that these are actual transactions and not just asking prices. Heard the last 3 penthouses by Capitaland has been snapped up at 1870psf. Anyone can confirm this?



So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/ferrell-puts-80-rivergate-units-back-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

august
23-05-09, 22:56
.... a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up (means > 1,380 psf) ...

1380psf? wow! congrats to ferrell! :D

kalumder
23-05-09, 23:24
If Ferrell did it, congratulations to them. I wonder if they sold them to foreigners outside Singapore.

Considering how many units are on the market, one would think that one would not need to pay above 1500psf for a similiar unit. I find it a bit odd that Ferrell can sell so many units so easily, and others cant get rid of their units, despite asking prices being all over the place between 1200-1600psf. That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.

firec
24-05-09, 00:19
That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.
... because they are in denial. Property bulls will still say Ferrell is facing investor redemptions, just an isolated case, and in no way affecting the sharp upturn in Rivergate prices.

bargain hunter
24-05-09, 08:12
You got to understand that the majority of units that Ferrell owns is in the premium block 97. Even though they are the biggest 3 and 4 bedrooms in the development (bigger than the 3 and 4 bedrooms found in the other 2 blocks), they are commanding high psf because of the unblocked views (stacks 9 and 10 and very high floor stack 6) or unique design (stacks 6 and 8) and river views (stack 7). But if you are looking for units in block 93 (except stack 5) or 99, i think they cannot command such high psf, especially after Ferrell has unloaded everything and the sentiment cools off.



If Ferrell did it, congratulations to them. I wonder if they sold them to foreigners outside Singapore.

Considering how many units are on the market, one would think that one would not need to pay above 1500psf for a similiar unit. I find it a bit odd that Ferrell can sell so many units so easily, and others cant get rid of their units, despite asking prices being all over the place between 1200-1600psf. That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.

jitkiat
24-05-09, 09:14
... because they are in denial. Property bulls will still say Ferrell is facing investor redemptions, just an isolated case, and in no way affecting the sharp upturn in Rivergate prices.

Well, Temasek offloaded BOA, it skyrocketed since then. The fact is that big funds decrease or increase stake at anytime they want. If volume is sufficiently high, we can only say that both buyer/seller agree that it is a fair price at the time contract is signed. So, don't draw conclusion so fast.

firec
24-05-09, 11:00
Well, Temasek offloaded BOA, it skyrocketed since then. The fact is that big funds decrease or increase stake at anytime they want. If volume is sufficiently high, we can only say that both buyer/seller agree that it is a fair price at the time contract is signed. So, don't draw conclusion so fast.
I would say Temasek is one of its kind in the world. First class. Ferrell is in no way similar to Temasek. You can't compare it with a world class sovereign wealth fund with highly paid top talent managing it.

btw, BOA price is still just US$11, still down more than 60% compared to 1 year ago. It's just that Temasek unloaded at -80% to -90%.

Are you saying that Ferrell is also unloading at the bottom?

bargain hunter
24-05-09, 12:58
one of its kind? buy high sell low? What is the rationale for highly paid top talent to buy high and sell low? Does that mean lesser paid fund managers are less talented? What happened to the highly paid top talents who were selling CDOs around the globe?

It pains me to see how money was lost investing in BofA. In early 2008, Jim Rogers already said he feels sad to see the investment made in US investment banks. Obviously, many others saw clearly how much trouble there was going to be at BofA and other US Investment banks.



I would say Temasek is one of its kind in the world. First class. Ferrell is in no way similar to Temasek. You can't compare it with a world class sovereign wealth fund with highly paid top talent managing it.

btw, BOA price is still just US$11, still down more than 60% compared to 1 year ago. It's just that Temasek unloaded at -80% to -90%.

Are you saying that Ferrell is also unloading at the bottom?

firec
24-05-09, 13:03
one of its kind? buy high sell low? What is the rationale for highly paid top talent to buy high and sell low? Does that mean lesser paid fund managers are less talented?
The lesser paid fund managers are of course less talented than Temasek in buying HIGH and selling low.

I read somewhere that if you throw S$1 MILLION into the Singapore River EVERY DAY, it would take you EIGHTEEN FREAKING YEARS to lose US$4.6 billion.

See how talented our talent are.

august
24-05-09, 14:24
one of its kind? buy high sell low? What is the rationale for highly paid top talent to buy high and sell low? Does that mean lesser paid fund managers are less talented? What happened to the highly paid top talents who were selling CDOs around the globe?

It pains me to see how money was lost investing in BofA. In early 2008, Jim Rogers already said he feels sad to see the investment made in US investment banks. Obviously, many others saw clearly how much trouble there was going to be at BofA and other US Investment banks.

with the series of disastrous investments starting from the 90s with micropolis, it is beyond doubt that they are NOT talents.. LOL :tongue3:

bargain hunter
24-05-09, 14:39
Back to RG, I visited the project today and Lippo units are literally flying off the shelves at 1400 to 1500+psf. Another 10 sold yesterday. Soon we will see more 1400+psf transactions because all the high floor 1500+psf units have been snapped up with only 3 left. :scared-1: Out of my reach already. So ironic that we are discussing it under this thread where we were hoping to buy at 1k.

jitkiat
24-05-09, 14:53
I would say Temasek is one of its kind in the world. First class. Ferrell is in no way similar to Temasek. You can't compare it with a world class sovereign wealth fund with highly paid top talent managing it.

btw, BOA price is still just US$11, still down more than 60% compared to 1 year ago. It's just that Temasek unloaded at -80% to -90%.

Are you saying that Ferrell is also unloading at the bottom?

There is a diff. Temasek lost $$$, Ferrel make $$$. If I were Ferrel, I will also sell now if I am in for a quick speculative gain.

firec
24-05-09, 15:10
There is a diff. Temasek lost $$$, Ferrel make $$$. If I were Ferrel, I will also sell now if I am in for a quick speculative gain.
Yup, Ferrell is better than Temasek.

Douk
24-05-09, 15:22
There is a diff. Temasek lost $$$, Ferrel make $$$. If I were Ferrel, I will also sell now if I am in for a quick speculative gain.

exactly... the only reason to unload now is to catch the sudden spike of buying sentiment.. in long run, this is still in the downtrend. I believe this is exactly what Ferrel is seeing... :2cents:

firec
24-05-09, 15:54
exactly... the only reason to unload now is to catch the sudden spike of buying sentiment.. in long run, this is still in the downtrend. I believe this is exactly what Ferrel is seeing... :2cents:
I like this interpretation. So Ferrell is predicting prices will head lower... otherwise, assuming they have holding power, why sell now if prices are going to head higher?

jitkiat
24-05-09, 16:00
The more desperate bears we have in this forum, the sooner price will stabilize and inch up. Nop, it is not V-shape, it is U-shape according to MM Lee. Wait till you see Q2 PPI up 0.1%, all the bears will rush out to buy.

firec
24-05-09, 16:35
The more desperate bears we have in this forum, the sooner price will stabilize and inch up. Nop, it is not V-shape, it is U-shape according to MM Lee. Wait till you see Q2 PPI up 0.1%, all the bears will rush out to buy.
Have you bought already?

The article below was published in yesterday's BT, which they syndicated from Bloomberg http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQJzd0DkdWuQ&refer=home

Of course, the US consumers have absolutely no impact on Singapore's property market...


Wall St slump's ripple effects hit average Joe

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- After former Bear Stearns Cos. trader Guy Irace lost his job on the bond desk a year ago, he moved back to Long Island to teach high school math and dropped 40 pounds. Jack Yang’s deli in Manhattan cut three employees.

Cavonberry’s, Yang’s 46th Street shop near the headquarters of the New York firm taken over by JPMorgan Chase & Co., once bustled with finance workers jostling to buy a barbeque chicken chopped salad and bottled water for $12. “They used to be turning them away at the door,” Irace said.

Last week, slow enough that one cashier instead of the usual two operated the register at midday, Yang tallied up the ripple effect of the financial slump that cost Bear Stearns its independence: He negotiated a $4,000 monthly decrease in rent with Sierra Realty Corp., to $17,000, and is spending 35 percent less a week with Fischer Foods of New York Inc. for such things as artichokes and ham.

“Since January, everything’s dead,” said Yang, 52.

The biggest Wall Street crisis since the Great Depression isn’t just a setback for New York or bankers. The finance industry’s contraction may wipe out $185 billion in wages and profits, or $600 for every man, woman and child in the U.S., according to Thomas Philippon, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. The trail of reduced income affects car mechanics, waiters, sports teams, hair stylists, jewelers, housecleaners and watch repair shops.

Largest Absolute Drop

“We’re seeing lots of lives derailed,” said Simon Johnson, professor of entrepreneurship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Irace, who worked at Bear Stearns for 19 years and is now a teacher in Uniondale, New York, is one of 255,441 people who’ve lost U.S. finance jobs since January 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Thousands more have seen cutbacks in pay.

In New York City alone, bonuses fell to $18.4 billion last year from $32.9 billion in 2007, the largest absolute drop ever, according to the state comptroller’s office.

The consumer discretionary and industrial sectors -- dependent on people who buy refrigerators, restaurant meals or cars -- are the only areas that have shrunk more than finance, with 383,340 and 270,278 job losses, according to the data. For each finance post eliminated, 3.3 in other industries will vanish, the comptroller’s office estimated.

“The higher your income, the more in services you consume,” said Ariell Reshef, an economics professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. “You don’t iron your own shirt.”

A Pound Of Ham

On the convertible bond desk at Bear Stearns, traders made from $175,000 to $1 million annually, depending on bonuses, Irace said. He dined with co-workers at Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steak House, home of the $55.95 porterhouse. Now he earns $75 to $175 a day at Kellenberg Memorial High School and often brings a packed lunch from home.

“You buy a pound of ham and you’ve got sandwiches for the whole week,” said Irace, 44.

Other banking refugees are navigating new lifestyles. Peter Stavropoulos, a one-time hedge fund strategist, said he handles drunk-driving cases as a lawyer in upstate New York. Amy DePaulo, a facilities manager at a New York bond firm for 14 years, may retrain as a paralegal after losing a job paying $100,000 annually. Michael Gabriel, a former money market fund manager for Victory Capital Management in Cleveland, said he’s applied for 100 jobs since his position was eliminated in 2007.

Lots Of Underwear

All are cutting back, with consequences for those who depended on banks’ outsized pay. The average securities industry salary reached a record high of almost $400,000 in 2007, or 6.8 times the average for nonfinancial jobs in the city, according to the comptroller’s office.

Gabriel started cutting his own lawn, costing his gardener $450 a year, he said. DePaulo used to splurge on gifts for her nephew, spending $1,000 at Christmas. This past year the 22- year-old got lots of underwear, she said.

Stavropoulos, whose father, George, was a clothing designer who made dresses for opera singer Maria Callas, got a dual degree in law and business and worked for almost a decade as a credit analyst at firms including Standard & Poor’s. He joined the Stamford, Connecticut, hedge fund Sailfish Capital Partners LLC in 2006. He left in 2008, as the firm wound down funds.

Now his office looks out over a supermarket’s rooftop in Millerton, a town of 925 people about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of Manhattan.

$125 Haircut

Earning less, the attorney stopped buying a daily venti black iced tea, unsweetened, from Starbucks Corp., which said Jan. 28 it will cut 6,700 jobs this year. He goes less often to Procter & Gamble Co.’s Frederic Fekkai salon in Greenwich, Connecticut, where haircuts start at $125. His wife’s cousin in Queens trims it.

“I used to take $300 for the week -- that was walking- around money,” he said. “Now I take $100 for the week. Forget about ordering sushi for lunch.”

Stavropoulos remembers accompanying 16 people in mid-2007 to Morimoto, the West Village sushi restaurant of Masaharu Morimoto, from the “Iron Chef” television program. The group spent more than $3,200, he said, then headed to the Buddha Bar, where patrons rubbed shoulders in a high-ceilinged space resembling an Asian temple.

Many nights, financial types crowded tables where “bottle service” starts at $250 for a Veuve Clicquot Brut Rose 2000 champagne, said Jessica Rosa, a waitress at the time.

Falling Tips

It wasn’t uncommon to see someone with a black American Express Co. card ringing up a $30,000 tab, said Tim Gaglio, who helped start the restaurant and bar in 2006.

The black “Centurion” card, billed as “the world’s rarest,” is available by invitation only, according to the company’s Web site.

At the peak, Rosa, 30, said she made $85,000 a year working three days a week.

“You wouldn’t see an empty chair here,” she said, surveying the half-filled lounge last week. As tips fell, Rosa stopped taking frequent trips to Miami, where she ate at the Prime 112 steakhouse on Ocean Drive, and to Puerto Rico, where she stayed at the Palmas del Mar resort.

Buddha Bar’s Gaglio said he’s planning for sales of $12 million this year after they reached $20 million in 2007, when the restaurant was one of the country’s highest-grossing. He’s added cheaper wines, like a J. Lohr Chardonnay for $11 by the glass, and is squeezing fish vendor F. Rozzo & Sons and beef seller John Jobbagy for pennies per pound. He asked employees to work harder, and said he terminated three last week.

Period Of Excess

“For such a long time, it was such enormous volume that people got very complacent and spoiled,” he said.

The pullback may prove worthwhile in the long run, by directing the economy to more productive areas, said the University of Virginia’s Reshef.

Wall Street compensation may have been as much as 50 percent too high from 1995 to 2006, according to his December 2008 survey with NYU’s Philippon of the U.S. finance industry over the past century. The other period of excess pay was around 1930, the year after the stock market crashed.

“What happened here is a misallocation of capital on a gigantic scale,” Reshef said.

Eventually, people will replace lost income as they retrain, gain new skills, move and find jobs -- which may take as long as 10 years, said Johnson, the Cambridge, Massachusetts- based economist.

Little League

“An economy like the United States has the ability to create new jobs and it has a bounce-back ability that we shouldn’t discount,” he said.

Irace, who enjoyed coaching Little League baseball as a teenager on Long Island, said he considered a career as a coach or an athletic director when he graduated in finance from Fairfield University, in Fairfield, Connecticut. Instead he found a job at Salomon Brothers with the help of a roommate’s father, a managing director. Two years later, he moved to Bear.

After Irace got his termination papers in June from JPMorgan Chase, he called “Brother K.”

Brother Kenneth Hoagland, the principal at Kellenberg, a private Catholic institution, taught Irace at Chaminade High School in Mineola, New York.

Hoagland called Irace in for an interview in August, when he needed a replacement for a math instructor on leave. A month later, the former trader was teaching quadratic equations and factoring to freshmen in five 40-minute periods of algebra a day. He enrolled in refresher math classes at Nassau Community College, sometimes learning subjects a day or two ahead of the kids. This semester, he’s teaching sixth-graders measurements and percentages.

Conditioning Drills

Seated at wooden desks, 21 to 39 in each class, they get excited when he flashes the animated math adventures of a robot named Moby onto a classroom projector. After school, Irace, now 198 pounds (90 kilograms), puts a whistle on a yellow cord around his neck and runs girls through conditioning drills as an assistant coach for the lacrosse team. The extra coaching stipend runs $1,000 to $2,000 for the season.

Irace used to spend about as much in Manhattan every month, when he had an apartment in Gramercy Park and co-workers joked that he attended more New York Knicks games than Jeff Van Gundy, the National Basketball Association team’s former coach. This week, he stayed home and graded papers.

Single -- with his three-bedroom, Colonial-style house in Oyster Bay, Long Island, paid off -- Irace got what he called a “very generous” severance from JPMorgan that runs out in September. His teaching job ends June 16, and with no guarantee of a job in the fall, he plans to look into unemployment benefits. Irace tells Wall Street friends he won’t be back.

“Things don’t always work out this way,” he said, recalling what one teacher told him when he got the Kellenberg job: “This is probably your true calling.”

Property_Owner
24-05-09, 18:09
Have you bought already?

The article below was published in yesterday's BT, which they syndicated from Bloomberg http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQJzd0DkdWuQ&refer=home

Of course, the US consumers have absolutely no impact on Singapore's property market...

Pal, what about you? You bought seaview at 750psf already? Or someone bought it at 755psf?

Regulators
24-05-09, 18:17
do u live along Duok Ave behind NUS?
exactly... the only reason to unload now is to catch the sudden spike of buying sentiment.. in long run, this is still in the downtrend. I believe this is exactly what Ferrel is seeing... :2cents:

firec
24-05-09, 18:49
Pal, what about you? You bought seaview at 750psf already? Or someone bought it at 755psf?
The auction was cancelled. Maybe it's sold at 2000psf. Good chance your property will appreciate in value very soon.

firec
24-05-09, 22:51
but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

Ya lah, you are rich lah, hao lian.

If you are so rich, whether prices go up or down doesn't matter to you right, so why are you still concerned and hanging around a forum on condos? Shouldn't you be playing golf, jetting around and socialising with the upper class?

And you should be staying and investing in GCBs, not the poor-man's condos which you talked about in these threads.

Or you are just pretending lor... you only have a net worth of $5-6mio like the rest of us here.

firec
25-05-09, 00:58
Owner. 2nd unit sold for me. Please...don't ask if i'm a agent or not:)
Of course you're an agent. Not hard to tell.

Property_Owner
25-05-09, 10:03
Paiseh. Not me. I mean my friend. :)

You miss this post!

Property_Owner
25-05-09, 10:04
My friend just sms me. He sold another of his RG @ 1400psf.:scared-4:
And this!!!!!!

vin002
25-05-09, 11:40
And this!!!!!!

One conclusion. RG is a hot property. It is not that the psf will not go down to $1K and below. But the interested demand is sufficiently to keep it above the $1kpsf level. Meaning too many investors waiting to grab at $1,100psf to $1,300psf for good units. I believe the rationale is that it has the potential capital gain to at least $1,500psf and above. Therefore, short term risk of going to $900-$1000psf is negligible to them.

proud owner
25-05-09, 13:08
One conclusion. RG is a hot property. It is not that the psf will not go down to $1K and below. But the interested demand is sufficiently to keep it above the $1kpsf level. Meaning too many investors waiting to grab at $1,100psf to $1,300psf for good units. I believe the rationale is that it has the potential capital gain to at least $1,500psf and above. Therefore, short term risk of going to $900-$1000psf is negligible to them.

so the seller at 1400 psf is taking profit ?

or is he seeing 1400 toppish ? cash out and go into something nearby for 1200 psf ?

teddybear
25-05-09, 13:35
If I am them, I sell RG at $1400-1500 psf and buy Cuscaden Royale or whatever near Ochard MRT at $1800 psf. ;)


so the seller at 1400 psf is taking profit ?

or is he seeing 1400 toppish ? cash out and go into something nearby for 1200 psf ?

vin002
25-05-09, 16:09
so the seller at 1400 psf is taking profit ?

or is he seeing 1400 toppish ? cash out and go into something nearby for 1200 psf ?


The launch price is around $1Kpsf for RG in 2005. There could be various reason for seller at $1,400psf. One thing for sure, he is taking profit.

$1,400 definately not toppish as it goes beyond $1,700psf during peak.

I guess seller could have missed the boat previously and after recent crisis, decided to let go as long as there is good profit.

jitkiat
25-05-09, 16:45
Originally Posted by overlorden http://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=37172248#post37172248)
i have checked out the cbd projects lately as i was hoping to pick up some bargains and this is what i found:

Lumiere - asking $1,700-1800 for high floors with panorama seaview. low floor developer sold units this month at $1400-1500 with pocket view. small units (500-900 sq.ft.) means good yields as price point can be around $1 million. only other unblocked seaview in CBD except for Sail and MBR. But SOHO project a bit different than pure residential (compare more to Central at Clark Quay but more exclusive finish and better MRT access for CBD (Tg Pagar vs purple line). Will turn out nicer than Icon when completed but undermarketed by developer so not many people know.

Icon - around $1400-1500 psf for middle and high floors. More time expired on lease than other CBD projects. decent finish but dont like 15-20 units per floor and 600+ total units....think in 5 years it will look worse and have more International Plaza feel...good yield potential at these prices but not much appreciation potential as i dont think this will ever be a $2000psf project. BTW, i asked for a valuation of an Icon unit and PREMAS gave me a report that said Icon should always be valued $200-300psf than Lumiere based on quality....fyi only.

Clift - 1 bank sale done at 1156 PSF (auction). No great views to speak of. Remaining units not so cheap ($1300-1700 psf). Bad layouts. Would disregard this project as no MRT access, and 12 units per floor in Amoy area. Not my cup of tea.

One Shenton - instead of a seaview, this project gets 4-5 years of construction on the sea-facing side. Should be good finishes but not much appreciation potential at prices of $1700-1800+ psf...units too big to offer good yields at this price. nice building and great architecture but not a good investment unless u can get banks to rent corporate apartments.

Sail - asking up to $2.4k psf for top bayviews now! around $1500-1600 psf for non bayview.

Marina Bay Residence - v. nice project....bayviews should be priced higher than Sail due to better finishes. Seaview also nice. Finishing quality higher than Sail (supposedly).

Marina Bay Suites - waiting for launch still....developer said before that will never launch until price is at least $2500 psf...wonder if still true as this one will be definitely blocked so I wonder how to price higher than One Shenton...

Therefore, for CBD, this is how I think the market will rank project pricing (PSF basis) from highest to lowest value (not necessarily today, but after all projects are complete in next 1-2 years):

1) MBR Bayview
2) Sail Bayview
3) MBR Seaview-Cityview
4) Sail Seaview
5) Lumiere Seaview
6) One Shenton High Floor
7) Marina Bay Suites High Floor (when launched)
8) Sail Blocked units = Lumiere City View = Icon High Floor = One Shenton Low Floor = Clift City View and High Floor
9) Clift Low Floor = Icon Low Floor
10) Beacon

=> Thought this is excellent, thanks to original contributor

gfoo
25-05-09, 16:54
Originally Posted by overlorden http://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=37172248#post37172248)


Sail - asking up to $2.4k psf for top bayviews now! around $1500-1600 psf for non bayview.



TS and MBR are priced such when the whole area is a dusty construction site. I wonder what the pricing will be once everything comes to fruition end 2009/early 2010. I do hope the 'landscape premium' balances out further potential declines that i will prob hit us once this false recovery ends

qus
27-05-09, 17:08
did ferrel manage to unload all those units?

oxboy99
27-05-09, 17:41
Any cheap/fire sale units available? I'm looking to buy... but only if price is good :ashamed1:

august
27-05-09, 18:26
an agent just sms, a 3 bedder above 35th floor asking 1500psf ~ lol

bargain hunter
27-05-09, 20:10
probably spurred on by Ferell's successful sales of 3 and 4 bedrooms at above 1500psf for > #30, but that's at the premium blk 97.



an agent just sms, a 3 bedder above 35th floor asking 1500psf ~ lol

pweesng
28-05-09, 09:09
probably spurred on by Ferell's successful sales of 3 and 4 bedrooms at above 1500psf for > #30, but that's at the premium blk 97.

Ferrell's units are actually owned by Stephen Riady / Lippo. Ferrell was merely helping to sell... Ferrell has a property fund in its fund family, and no prie for guessing who is the owner of the fund.

in any case, those units has been taken back from Ferrell. Now it is being sold by Auric Pacific, another of Lippo's vehicle.

bargain hunter
28-05-09, 10:22
Does it matter who is selling the units since the ultimate owner is still Lippo?

How are the units taken back from Ferrell? Ferrell owns the units from their purchase in 2005 right? Auric Pacific is a seperate listed entity also controlled by Lippo but if the units were to be sold by Auric Pacific surely there would have to be a sale from Ferrell to Auric and not just a "take back" as you mentioned? There would be different minority shareholders which have an interest in Ferrell and Auric right?



Ferrell's units are actually owned by Stephen Riady / Lippo. Ferrell was merely helping to sell... Ferrell has a property fund in its fund family, and no prie for guessing who is the owner of the fund.

in any case, those units has been taken back from Ferrell. Now it is being sold by Auric Pacific, another of Lippo's vehicle.

pweesng
28-05-09, 10:53
Does it matter who is selling the units since the ultimate owner is still Lippo?

How are the units taken back from Ferrell? Ferrell owns the units from their purchase in 2005 right? Auric Pacific is a seperate listed entity also controlled by Lippo but if the units were to be sold by Auric Pacific surely there would have to be a sale from Ferrell to Auric and not just a "take back" as you mentioned? There would be different minority shareholders which have an interest in Ferrell and Auric right?

well.. take back means... the person in charge of the sales is no longer David Lee but Yao Cher Wan.

What i highly suspect is that there is only one investor in Ferrell's property fund.. that is why things can be so fluid.

Yes, the units are still owned by Ferrell, but they basically no longer makes decision on what to sell and how much to sell at anymore...

bargain hunter
28-05-09, 12:07
i see, thanks for clarification. anyway sales had been brisk so i guess not much issues there.


well.. take back means... the person in charge of the sales is no longer David Lee but Yao Cher Wan.

What i highly suspect is that there is only one investor in Ferrell's property fund.. that is why things can be so fluid.

Yes, the units are still owned by Ferrell, but they basically no longer makes decision on what to sell and how much to sell at anymore...

DW
30-05-09, 11:07
I received an email from an agent contact - his comments and sales pitch reminds me of some of the comments the forummers here made about agents in general... ... I must say I am rather shocked by this agent and his pitch. Really bizarre!

===========================================

Dear Friends

The market is heating up very fast in the past few weeks;
will it become like the good o' days again in 2007 boom?

It certainly feels like it recently. Im getting giddy from recent property response!

Rivergate #38-09 has already been sold at $1800psf in the market,
and over 60 units there by Ferrell Asset Fund sold at $1500-1750psf.
In Q1 you can buy a high floor for only $1150psf. Imagine how much
money was then on the table.... (no worries, if you know how to cherrypick
there r still money to be made now)

It feels the same elsewhere for many projects. For those still waiting at the sideline for
more signs of certainty to come in the market then come in....
be prepared to witness the next property tsunami craze in the next few months.
You have being warned in advance! :) (ever saw how ladies rush in some fashion clothing shops when there's sale?)

Why is all this happening? Economy haven't recover yet but everyone is buying?
Reason is simple: Always remember we are not the only player in this Monopoly game..
When signs get really clear, other players will also rush in... any game that involves human being
makes the game play more complicated and unpredictable. Especially when theres money on the table.

Wishing you massive wealth from all the opportunities from this Crisis. Call/email/sms me if you wish to invest.


XXX

DealsHunter
31-05-09, 05:08
Laugh out loud...

Read the first Rivergate thread....with amusement.

All those people there posted from Jan to March 09 asking for 700psf to 950psf. Speculation from that thread was like below $1k psf then they will consider. Even make the agents over there look like fools when units are asking above $1000psf..

Guess following the major crowd is always wrong...

Now RG going for $1300psf to $1500psf. Guess most of them there miss the boat by following the major crowd...:tongue3:

I got mine @ $11xxpsf....:cheers6: .In the boat and now offloading....;)

bargain hunter
31-05-09, 07:44
That's a good move by you. I was saying that whole speculation was a waste of everyone's time and those bears bombarded me by saying it will trigger bank top-ups similar to margin calls and prices will fall cascadingly and trigger more people to get bank top-up calls. then prices will fall to 1k, 900, 800, 700psf, truly amusing. J-Dog even offered to chop if 800psf is not achieved by Dec 2009. He's been all quiet since then.




Laugh out loud...

Read the first Rivergate thread....with amusement.

All those people there posted from Jan to March 09 asking for 700psf to 950psf. Speculation from that thread was like below $1k psf then they will consider. Even make the agents over there look like fools when units are asking above $1000psf..

Guess following the major crowd is always wrong...

Now RG going for $1300psf to $1500psf. Guess most of them there miss the boat by following the major crowd...:tongue3:

I got mine @ $11xxpsf....:cheers6: .In the boat and now offloading....;)

vin002
01-06-09, 08:16
Laugh out loud...

Read the first Rivergate thread....with amusement.

All those people there posted from Jan to March 09 asking for 700psf to 950psf. Speculation from that thread was like below $1k psf then they will consider. Even make the agents over there look like fools when units are asking above $1000psf..

Guess following the major crowd is always wrong...

Now RG going for $1300psf to $1500psf. Guess most of them there miss the boat by following the major crowd...:tongue3:

I got mine @ $11xxpsf....:cheers6: .In the boat and now offloading....;)


Well done! I similiarly asking everyone to get their units range from $1050 to $1200 if they can afford and give others a chance to earn. No need to force others too the wall by asking $900-$1000psf. Too bad I already committed in other property, else I will surely get one at your price range.

Yesterday, I went to Martin Place. The place was packed and asking price was $1,400psf! Looking at the cars that are parked outside against my Japanese car, I know that they should not have difficulty to sellout! Meaning if the sale goes well at Martin Place, RG should expected to appreciate further!

I agree that Economy may not get any better in 2009. But everyone else is believing that 2010 onwards will be better.

Unless there is another major crisis, we don't expected to see major fall in the property price further.

repanse71
01-06-09, 09:45
Actually, the real test for the economy will be the next 6-12 months.
A lot of company of downsizing, retrenching, cost-cutting... to boost bottom-line, looks better during disclosure...

If demand does not pick up in developed countries, mainly US, economies will still be in trouble...

Anyway, if you smell a good deal and can afford it, just GO for it. We are already near the bottom, 1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bushes. History is the only one that get its right when timing the market :-)

regards


Well done! I similiarly asking everyone to get their units range from $1050 to $1200 if they can afford and give others a chance to earn. No need to force others too the wall by asking $900-$1000psf. Too bad I already committed in other property, else I will surely get one at your price range.

Yesterday, I went to Martin Place. The place was packed and asking price was $1,400psf! Looking at the cars that are parked outside against my Japanese car, I know that they should not have difficulty to sellout! Meaning if the sale goes well at Martin Place, RG should expected to appreciate further!

I agree that Economy may not get any better in 2009. But everyone else is believing that 2010 onwards will be better.

Unless there is another major crisis, we don't expected to see major fall in the property price further.

DealsHunter
01-06-09, 12:25
That's a good move by you. I was saying that whole speculation was a waste of everyone's time and those bears bombarded me by saying it will trigger bank top-ups similar to margin calls and prices will fall cascadingly and trigger more people to get bank top-up calls. then prices will fall to 1k, 900, 800, 700psf, truly amusing. J-Dog even offered to chop if 800psf is not achieved by Dec 2009. He's been all quiet since then.

Laugh out loud....

They merely following the crowd, not wrong though. Full of Negative thoughts and comments but they do visit showflats, visit property sites and websites and made ridiculous offers like $700psf-900psf.

On the contrary, with people like them i will know where the crowd are heading to that's when i made my decision to jump in earlier. :cheers6: :cheers1: :p


Certainly agree with you, they are quiet now....;) .

Allthepies
01-06-09, 12:35
Laugh out loud....

They merely following the crowd, not wrong though. Full of Negative thoughts and comments but they do visit showflats, visit property sites and websites and made ridiculous offers like $700psf-900psf.

On the contrary, with people like them i will know where the crowd are heading to that's when i made my decision to jump in earlier. :cheers6: :cheers1: :p


Certainly agree with you, they are quiet now....;) .
aiya why u all so critical, nobody can predict the market. now RG buyers may be celebrating at 1400psf, ha maybe 6 months later, a change of event take place and everyone will regret buying at that price. of course the other way can also happen and it cheong to 1800psf.

so what i am trying to say is that unless u have already locked in profit, nothing can be assumed. good luck to everyone vested. :)

qwertyuiop
03-06-09, 09:39
I guess J-Dog has made himself unforgettable by many after reading the RG thread. Anyway, I've also jumped onto the boat at 11xx psf notwithstanding the 'speculation' that RG prices will plunge to 700-900psf. Well, advice to all readers will be to do your homework and read all posts with a big table spoon of salt. :)



Laugh out loud....

They merely following the crowd, not wrong though. Full of Negative thoughts and comments but they do visit showflats, visit property sites and websites and made ridiculous offers like $700psf-900psf.

On the contrary, with people like them i will know where the crowd are heading to that's when i made my decision to jump in earlier. :cheers6: :cheers1: :p


Certainly agree with you, they are quiet now....;) .

pweesng
03-06-09, 09:46
I guess J-Dog has made himself unforgettable by many after reading the RG thread. Anyway, I've also jumped onto the boat at 11xx psf notwithstanding the 'speculation' that RG prices will plunge to 700-900psf. Well, advice to all readers will be to do your homework and read all posts with a big table spoon of salt. :)

Good on you. I was hunting and made quite a few offers even up to $1250 psf... unfortunately the market was already running and offers kept geting rejected.

i wish i had gotten an unit there. that was the only place my wife actually thought we can move in. ha ha....

i seriously doubt that the price will go below $1k psf. Given that i suspect most people bought it above that price, it will be a firm support at that price.

other inferior development around that area, such as Wharf Residence are trading above that price too, gives me reasonable comfort that prices are more likely to stay.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 09:54
Good on you. I was hunting and made quite a few offers even up to $1250 psf... unfortunately the market was already running and offers kept geting rejected.

i wish i had gotten an unit there. that was the only place my wife actually thought we can move in. ha ha....

i seriously doubt that the price will go below $1k psf. Given that i suspect most people bought it above that price, it will be a firm support at that price.

other inferior development around that area, such as Wharf Residence are trading above that price too, gives me reasonable comfort that prices are more likely to stay.

If I were a seller, with IR opening just 6 more months away with SIBOR at 0.X%, STI cheong everyday, why SELL?

stalingrad
03-06-09, 13:07
If I were a seller, with IR opening just 6 more months away with SIBOR at 0.X%, STI cheong everyday, why SELL?

I am not a buyer, and I am noy interested in RG. but many experts say that the recent run up in stock markets is a bear market rally and will soon fizzle out. I believe they are right. So, if you are smart, you should sell and get rid of your albatross and allow yourself a good night's sleep.

RG will drop to less than 1000 psf in one year's time, I firmly believe. even today, there are so many units for rent and for sale. No one actually wants to live in it. It is just greed that drove investors to buy units in this condo.

vin002
03-06-09, 15:05
but many experts say that the recent run up in stock markets is a bear market rally and will soon fizzle out. I believe they are right. So, if you are smart, you should sell and get rid of your albatross and allow yourself a good night's sleep.

Wow you actually believe the experts!:doh: Don't hear what the expect say. Now the "experts" are changing their views! They only say maybe it is a bear rally. See the "key word". I believe the rally will stop eventually but it doesn't mean that once it stopped, it will drop back to 1500 level. It means that it will stay at least at 2,200 level and test the new high once a while to push the STI higher till further bad news appear.

Your believe is only justifiable if there are further more bad news than the financial crisis. You are such people that I like because when you feel that market is stable or going up then you enter, it is the time where I sell to lock the profit. :sleep:




RG will drop to less than 1000 psf in one year's time, I firmly believe. even today, there are so many units for rent and for sale. No one actually wants to live in it. It is just greed that drove investors to buy units in this condo.

Justify by facts and figures and not by feel. What is the percentage of units renting and units for sale. If RG is selling at 1100psf, it would have already sold out as many buyers are waiting to jump in based on the interest in this thread. And don't assume Singaporean as the only buyer.

Localite
03-06-09, 15:11
Market is moving my friend. Ppty mkt is going up like it did in 2007. Just wait for few months and you will notice the momentum picking up. The reason is the int rates is unnaturally kept low. In fact because policy makers are nervous so they will keep the rates low for much longer than previous recessions. Nett result is that prices will have to go up. Anyone can do the sums of loan rate vs rental. It is at historical advantage now to buy.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 15:11
there are 384 units for rent and 200 units for sale. go check propertyguru.dom.sg for yourself.

Property_Owner
03-06-09, 15:29
there are 384 units for rent and 200 units for sale. go check propertyguru.dom.sg for yourself.

Are these 384 units renting at 2000 per month? Or the 200 units selling @ loss? What is the cheapest unit on sale now?

jitkiat
03-06-09, 15:35
Wow you actually believe the experts!:doh: Don't hear what the expect say. Now the "experts" are changing their views! They only say maybe it is a bear rally. See the "key word". I believe the rally will stop eventually but it doesn't mean that once it stopped, it will drop back to 1500 level. It means that it will stay at least at 2,200 level and test the new high once a while to push the STI higher till further bad news appear.

Your believe is only justifiable if there are further more bad news than the financial crisis. You are such people that I like because when you feel that market is stable or going up then you enter, it is the time where I sell to lock the profit. :sleep:

When the last bear is converted into a bull, that's the end of a bull run :D

qwertyuiop
03-06-09, 15:35
Erm so? Say they bought at 1200-1400psf, will they sell at <1000psf or just tenant it out at slight loss for 2 yrs to tide over? Remember, there are still a lot of cash rich pple in S'pore and abroad. If owner is really distressed, the unit will be snapped up at 1000-1100psf. But, I certainly do not mind RG price plunge to < 1000psf so that I may pick up another unit :) . RG < 1000psf in a yr's time? We shall see :)


there are 384 units for rent and 200 units for sale. go check propertyguru.dom.sg for yourself.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 15:41
Erm so? Say they bought at 1200-1400psf, will they sell at <1000psf or just tenant it out at slight loss for 2 yrs to tide over? Remember, there are still a lot of cash rich pple in S'pore and abroad. If owner is really distressed, the unit will be snapped up at 1000-1100psf. But, I certainly do not mind RG price plunge to < 1000psf so that I may pick up another unit :) . RG < 1000psf in a yr's time? We shall see :)

It is naive to believe that the property market will recover just because the stock market is on the mends. there are so many projects that were delayed and will be put back on the market. So, whatever the stock market does in the next six to 12 months, there is no way that the property market will get back to its glory days in 2007. the price will have no place to go but down. Singapore has a unique problem that no one else has. An overbuilt property market, that will take years to digest.

august
03-06-09, 15:41
there are 384 units for rent and 200 units for sale. go check propertyguru.dom.sg for yourself.

factor in double or triple posting.. probably avg 130+ units more accurate ~

Property_Owner
03-06-09, 15:46
factor in double or triple posting.. probably avg 130+ units more accurate ~

Tat's the problem with internet marketing.

Property_Owner
03-06-09, 15:47
It is naive to believe that the property market will recover just because the stock market is on the mends. there are so many projects that were delayed and will be put back on the market. So, whatever the stock market does in the next six to 12 months, there is no way that the property market will get back to its glory days in 2007. the price will have no place to go but down. Singapore has a unique problem that no one else has. An overbuilt property market, that will take years to digest.

Maybe you wanna set a date for this, same like J-dog. :)

jitkiat
03-06-09, 15:52
It is naive to believe that the property market will recover just because the stock market is on the mends. there are so many projects that were delayed and will be put back on the market. So, whatever the stock market does in the next six to 12 months, there is no way that the property market will get back to its glory days in 2007. the price will have no place to go but down. Singapore has a unique problem that no one else has. An overbuilt property market, that will take years to digest.
Those who spot big trend make it big. Those who spot small trend make little. Those who are against the trend, got buried. Look at the attached technical chart. SG property never goes below the support line since 1960.

FYI, temporary stock market correction may be coming tonight, just now somebody took a half a million dollars short position at S&P500 and market reversed shortly after that.

vin002
03-06-09, 15:52
there are 384 units for rent and 200 units for sale. go check propertyguru.dom.sg for yourself.


From this sentances I can tell you that your statistic is very incorrect and very naive.

denverusa
03-06-09, 15:59
can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

qwertyuiop
03-06-09, 16:03
I certainly hope nobody makes the mistake by researching based on propertyguru only :)


From this sentances I can tell you that your statistic is very incorrect and very naive.

qwertyuiop
03-06-09, 16:06
Greedy investors like wat stalingrad mentioned ?:scared-4:

denverusa
can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?


I am not a buyer, and I am noy interested in RG. but many experts say that the recent run up in stock markets is a bear market rally and will soon fizzle out. I believe they are right. So, if you are smart, you should sell and get rid of your albatross and allow yourself a good night's sleep.

RG will drop to less than 1000 psf in one year's time, I firmly believe. even today, there are so many units for rent and for sale. No one actually wants to live in it. It is just greed that drove investors to buy units in this condo.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:14
can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

rationale? no rationale! Many people bought the green shoot theory and panicked, and piled into the market in droves.

Haha, lemmings, and they deserve to die when RG hit the 900 psf mark.

teddybear
03-06-09, 16:21
Is there a need to curse people who buy property at current price? Who knows whether RG will hit 900 psf? I also really hope it will falls to 900 psf (so that I can buy another cheap cheap) but unfortunately nobody wants to sell me at such price and NO, there is no need to curse these sellers, regardless of whether they are really smart or stupid depending on how the future prices pan out.


rationale? no rationale! Many people bought the green shoot theory and panicked, and piled into the market in droves.

Haha, lemmings, and they deserve to die when RG hit the 900 psf mark.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:21
Those who spot big trend make it big. Those who spot small trend make little. Those who are against the trend, got buried. Look at the attached technical chart. SG property never goes below the support line since 1960.

FYI, temporary stock market correction may be coming tonight, just now somebody took a half a million dollars short position at S&P500 and market reversed shortly after that.

I doubt that was the reason for the market to erase its early gain today. more likely, it is the reversal of US futures. ADB report is coming out today at 8:30 pm. if there is no quick turnaround in employment situation, and the friday employment report is lousy, expect the dow to get below 8,000 again. haha, lemmings, die and you don't even know what hit you.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:24
Is there a need to curse people who buy property at current price? Who knows whether RG will hit 900 psf? I also really hope it will falls to 900 psf (so that I can buy another cheap cheap) but unfortunately nobody wants to sell me at such price and NO, there is no need to curse these sellers, regardless of whether they are really smart or stupid depending on how the future prices pan out.

yes, there is a need. these speculators were the ones that pushed up this market and got the bubble inflated. they have done a great disservice to the country and to the economy. they deserve to lose millions. what baffles me that they did not even learn a lesson from the market crash. they are going their merry way again. yes, I curse them just like I curse that thing that scurries under my sink.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 16:37
I doubt that was the reason for the market to erase its early gain today. more likely, it is the reversal of US futures. ADB report is coming out today at 8:30 pm. if there is no quick turnaround in employment situation, and the friday employment report is lousy, expect the dow to get below 8,000 again. haha, lemmings, die and you don't even know what hit you.
Unlikely to be due to ADB. More like sudden surge of short positions in HSBC in Hong Kong market. HK futures reversed from +600 to -150 !!! Very powerful signal. Actually, you talk like a professional in stock/futures but why you sound like sour grape when it comes to property ?!

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:37
this story about a V-shaped recovery started when china reported PMIs rose month after month. let me tell you this: Never trust statistics reported by the chinese. they can report any numbers that they want to improve market sentiments. Paul Krugman has said that chinese statistics are more fake than the milk laced with melamine.

If you don't buy chinese goods for fear of getting poisoned, why would you buy into their recovery story?

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:40
Unlikely to be due to ADB. More like sudden surge of short positions in HSBC in Hong Kong market. HK futures reversed from +600 to -150 !!! Very powerful signal. Actually, you talk like a professional in stock/futures but why you sound like sour grape when it comes to property ?!

HK futures reversed when US futures reversed.

I am a professional, and I firmly believed that the bottom will come some time in late 2009. cannot give you the exact date, but october seems likely the months where the bottoming process will end.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 16:45
HK futures reversed when US futures reversed.

I am a professional, and I firmly believed that the bottom will come some time in late 2009. cannot give you the exact date, but october seems likely the months where the bottoming process will end.

Market does not care about your "professional" opinion. Anyway, let's assume you are right, what is your expectation of PPI at Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009 respectively?

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:46
Market does not care about your "professional" opinion. Anyway, let's assume you are right, what is your expectation of PPI at Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009 respectively?

big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 16:51
big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

this market is all about liquidity. when bernanke expanded the feds' balance sheet 300%, he pumped trillions of dollars into the market. where did the money go, all into equities and real estate. but he will not be able to keep the balance sheet expanded forever, he has to shrink it eventually, and shrink it he will very soon. take cover.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 16:57
big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? :mad: Is that professional?

vin002
03-06-09, 17:00
can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

1st of all, is there a mad rush? And above 1500psf??? Where you get the info from?

For Apr & May, only 3 units are sold above 1400psf and these units must have a reason for sold at such price.

stalingrad
03-06-09, 17:00
You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? :mad: Is that professional?

PPI is producer price index. why did I contradict myself? PPI can skyrocket, but bernanke may not withdraw liquidity right away. so the party has some time to run.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 17:10
PPI is producer price index. why did I contradict myself? PPI can skyrocket, but bernanke may not withdraw liquidity right away. so the party has some time to run.

Sigh ... if you are so confident, why don't you start building up your short position on S&P500 and make huge profit end of the year or next year. Then you can buy RG from the proceed of your profit :D Or you can buy PUT warrant on property stocks in Singapore loh .. no need to spend time to argue with RG owners

pweesng
03-06-09, 17:10
You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? :mad: Is that professional?

Welll to a certain extend i agee with Stalin. (not the cursing part though)

the excess liquidity in the market now, will need to be reduce once inflation creeps in. ie. Interest rate will go up.

However, what we can hope for is that govt and central be mindful of increases and ensure that the market still need time to adapt to it, in the bottom line... Given what happen over the last 24 months. i would say they might probably take the view to err on the side of caution. (again I hope)

Now for the cursing part... this is a free society and almost free economy. If you firmly believe in economy... people then are allowed to exercise their judgement and purchase what they deem is right. Yes, they may drive up the prices. But that is also their rights...

if you are against it, you should look to migrate to North Korea or something. There is no free market there... given the low price of the land there, you got a 99.9% chance of appreciation...

So, be nice, stop cursing people... :scared-1:

stalingrad
03-06-09, 17:20
Sigh ... if you are so confident, why don't you start building up your short position on S&P500 and make huge profit end of the year or next year. Then you can buy RG from the proceed of your profit :D Or you can buy PUT warrant on property stocks in Singapore loh .. no need to spend time to argue with RG owners

I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf. :D

stalingrad
03-06-09, 17:22
Welll to a certain extend i agee with Stalin. (not the cursing part though)

the excess liquidity in the market now, will need to be reduce once inflation creeps in. ie. Interest rate will go up.

However, what we can hope for is that govt and central be mindful of increases and ensure that the market still need time to adapt to it, in the bottom line... Given what happen over the last 24 months. i would say they might probably take the view to err on the side of caution. (again I hope)

Now for the cursing part... this is a free society and almost free economy. If you firmly believe in economy... people then are allowed to exercise their judgement and purchase what they deem is right. Yes, they may drive up the prices. But that is also their rights...

if you are against it, you should look to migrate to North Korea or something. There is no free market there... given the low price of the land there, you got a 99.9% chance of appreciation...

So, be nice, stop cursing people... :scared-1:
no more cursing.

pweesng
03-06-09, 17:24
I am just re-reading the threads... and thinking back on my first property purchase.

... ...

like many, i was disgusted by people who buys up the market, outbidding me in everyway, putting the prices way out of my reach. I ask myself, why are these people doing this, do they really see a fundamental or are they just freaking investors. I mean.. these are not squares on monopoly... they are like real stuff that will cost me 30 years of financial freedom and enjoyment. I didn't curse them, but i really hate them for putting real users like me out of reach of a dream home.

The market tank after that, soon a unit was within my reach... but market tank for a reason. Asian Currency Crisis. My friends were losing their jobs left, right and center. I wanted to buy something, but was sure if I would be able keep my job for the next 6 months, so don't talk about a 30 year loan. But with the right encouragement from my wife, we plunge on our first private property. Now we don't look back anymore.

Something I learn in the last decade or so...

1) if you haven't bought your first property, everything will always be too expensive.

2) When things are cheap, chances are you would not dare to buy anyway, for fearing about your job security.

3) when things are expensive, you blame the people who are in the market, but in reality, they took the risk, they get their rewards.

Once you take the plunge, the 3 points above will suddenly disappear...

Of course, after i sold my first property, i also realise that the real gain is not the roof over our head... hence, i never buy something for ownstay... at least not for now. I still stay in a HDB...and happily so.

jitkiat
03-06-09, 17:27
I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf. :D
Ok, this sounds more professional, provided you enter and exit at the correct timing, execution matters. For me, I rather wait for S&P500 to go back down below 200d MA b4 shorting.

Actually, everybody is entitled to their own opinion:

Marc Faber (aka Dr Doom):

The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation :eek:,” Faber said.

Jim Rogers:

Stock markets may hit new lows :banghead:, this year (2009) or the next, as the current rally has been largely caused by the money printed by central banks and fundamental problems remain unsolved. The bottom will probably come later this year, next year, who knows when :sleep:

jitkiat
03-06-09, 17:33
I am just re-reading the threads... and thinking back on my first property purchase.

... ...

like many, i was disgusted by people who buys up the market, outbidding me in everyway, putting the prices way out of my reach. I ask myself, why are these people doing this, do they really see a fundamental or are they just freaking investors. I mean.. these are not squares on monopoly... they are like real stuff that will cost me 30 years of financial freedom and enjoyment. I didn't curse them, but i really hate them for putting real users like me out of reach of a dream home.

The market tank after that, soon a unit was within my reach... but market tank for a reason. Asian Currency Crisis. My friends were losing their jobs left, right and center. I wanted to buy something, but was sure if I would be able keep my job for the next 6 months, so don't talk about a 30 year loan. But with the right encouragement from my wife, we plunge on our first private property. Now we don't look back anymore.

Something I learn in the last decade or so...

1) if you haven't bought your first property, everything will always be too expensive.

2) When things are cheap, chances are you would not dare to buy anyway, for fearing about your job security.

3) when things are expensive, you blame the people who are in the market, but in reality, they took the risk, they get their rewards.

Once you take the plunge, the 3 points above will suddenly disappear...

Of course, after i sold my first property, i also realise that the real gain is not the roof over our head... hence, i never buy something for ownstay... at least not for now. I still stay in a HDB...and happily so.

Private property in SG is purposely priced such that only 20% of population can afford it so that rich-poor gap not so obvious ... government holds the ultimate weapon ... supply of lands and HDB flats

HP65
03-06-09, 18:08
this story about a V-shaped recovery started when china reported PMIs rose month after month. let me tell you this: Never trust statistics reported by the chinese. they can report any numbers that they want to improve market sentiments. Paul Krugman has said that chinese statistics are more fake than the milk laced with melamine.

If you don't buy chinese goods for fear of getting poisoned, why would you buy into their recovery story?

Wise words ;) and I never trust their books as well, no matter what the `lao zong' says about which book can trust. I make sure i send my men in for 6 mths min before investing in them.

cheerful
03-06-09, 18:12
Lesson learnt (fr China & fr the story 'crying wolves'), don't always give fake things or fake stories; else after awhile, real stories oso can be deemed as fake ones :D

firec
03-06-09, 18:28
Market is moving my friend. Ppty mkt is going up like it did in 2007. Just wait for few months and you will notice the momentum picking up. The reason is the int rates is unnaturally kept low. In fact because policy makers are nervous so they will keep the rates low for much longer than previous recessions. Nett result is that prices will have to go up. Anyone can do the sums of loan rate vs rental. It is at historical advantage now to buy.
Interest rates were kept unnaturally low from 2002 all the way to 2005 but property prices did not budge at all. I would say it was at historical advantage to buy at that time, not now.

I bought at that time and sold for a huge profit in 2008. Did you? If not, then of course "don't miss this bull run" as all the bulls here say... (I'll wait.)

And 2002-2005 wasn't even a global recession.

Kenshinto80
03-06-09, 18:57
Interest rates were kept unnaturally low from 2002 all the way to 2005 but property prices did not budge at all. I would say it was at historical advantage to buy at that time, not now.

I bought at that time and sold for a huge profit in 2008. Did you? If not, then of course "don't miss this bull run" as all the bulls here say... (I'll wait.)

And 2002-2005 wasn't even a global recession.

Then wait lor. Based on your historical real life experience you have made profits. You are sure to make another killing once the market sink in the next few months. Congrats!

爱屋及乌
03-06-09, 22:27
The market is driven by demand and supply, not chart.




Those who spot big trend make it big. Those who spot small trend make little. Those who are against the trend, got buried. Look at the attached technical chart. SG property never goes below the support line since 1960.

FYI, temporary stock market correction may be coming tonight, just now somebody took a half a million dollars short position at S&P500 and market reversed shortly after that.

爱屋及乌
03-06-09, 22:31
A low floor no view 1000sf unit is renting abt 3.2K in The Sail... How much u think RG can fetch...?


can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

bargain hunter
03-06-09, 22:44
I think you are referring to the 80+ Lippo units. The prices transacted are actually from 1300+psf to 1500+psf. It is believed that those buyers were a mix of indonesian investors and rich en-bloc sellers who are buying for their own stay. (Afterall, this is a premium block of big 3 and 4 bedrooms so the quantum is easily $2m+ to $3m+). Certainly not the kind of speculative buying that some people are saying. Afterall, the financial commitment is huge as a full loan must be processed and not like new launches where you just pay 20% down etc. However, do note that only a select number of units are transacted at >1500psf and the average transaction is more likely to be closer to 1400 than 1500.



can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

jitkiat
03-06-09, 22:45
The market is driven by demand and supply, not chart.

Any market, including stock & commodities market, also driven by supply & demand. So I guess you also think chart is useless in stock & commodities loh :doh: Chart helps you to spot trend, of course chart does not drive the market directly :confused:

bargain hunter
03-06-09, 22:48
The caveats lodged for Apr & May are actually transactions done before that. The recent Lippo sales were transacted at 1300+ to 1500+psf. However, I believe prices are likely to stay pretty near this range in the short term while the market digests this units. I was wondering, if these units were mopped up by en-bloc buyers for their own stay, does that mean that the rental will be a little more stable than before.

Oh, the one who mentioned 200+ units for sale, did you take into account duplicates of the 80 units? Perhaps, other than Lippo's 80 units which have now been absorbed by the market, there are fewer than 50 units up for sale?


1st of all, is there a mad rush? And above 1500psf??? Where you get the info from?

For Apr & May, only 3 units are sold above 1400psf and these units must have a reason for sold at such price.

Douk
03-06-09, 23:09
I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf. :D

nice write up. :)

jitkiat
03-06-09, 23:30
nice write up. :)

Dont cheer too early. If he is right, he will be right big time, but then the odd is 5 to 1 in the history:

S&P500 rallied an average 21 percent over 12 months the last five times it crossed the 200-day mean (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND) after falling below it for a year or more, data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC and Bloomberg show.

Only once, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its 200-day average in January 2002, did stocks fall in the next 12 months, the data showed.

Stalin care to share how big is your position ?

Douk
04-06-09, 00:06
Dont cheer too early. If he is right, he will be right big time, but then the odd is 5 to 1 in the history:

S&P500 rallied an average 21 percent over 12 months the last five times it crossed the 200-day mean (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND) after falling below it for a year or more, data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC and Bloomberg show.

Only once, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its 200-day average in January 2002, did stocks fall in the next 12 months, the data showed.

Stalin care to share how big is your position ?

I am not cheering for whether he is right or wrong. but on general market trend, i believe he is right ..

In my personal opinion, i think he has a very logical analysis on the economy and linking the economy to property market, that make sense. It just doesn't make sense to me using short term stock market bull run to predict a property market... just my personal opinion. :2cents:

august
04-06-09, 00:31
went to look see martin place residences and wharf over the weekend...
wharf left handful of units, martin by now probably 80% sold, fantastic response! :scared-5:

martin especially is overpriced.. 1700psf for a 2 bedder ~ lol :p

qus
04-06-09, 01:12
i bought recently on one happy morning figuring what is the point of sitting on my cash.. might as well join the lemmings and have some fun.. no regrets...

stalingrad
04-06-09, 09:50
i bought recently on one happy morning figuring what is the point of sitting on my cash.. might as well join the lemmings and have some fun.. no regrets...

When all you cash is gone, you will miss it. So do people who ploughed millions into minibonds.

ADP job cuts report was a disappointment last night, meaning that US unemployment rate is going to hit 10% come Friday. where are the green shoots that everyone is talking about?

China is not telling the truth about its economic downturn. We flew back from Taiwan last Saturday and saw a flotilla of tankers and bulk carriers moored off the coast of Changi, all unemployed and looking for cargo. in fact, there were so many ships on standby off Changi, you could jump from ship to ship without getting our feet wet.

Let's hope you are right, economy is on the mends. but it seems that you are dead wrong.

jitkiat
04-06-09, 10:50
When all you cash is gone, you will miss it. So do people who ploughed millions into minibonds.

ADP job cuts report was a disappointment last night, meaning that US unemployment rate is going to hit 10% come Friday. where are the green shoots that everyone is talking about?

China is not telling the truth about its economic downturn. We flew back from Taiwan last Saturday and saw a flotilla of tankers and bulk carriers moored off the coast of Changi, all unemployed and looking for cargo. in fact, there were so many ships on standby off Changi, you could jump from ship to ship without getting our feet wet.

Let's hope you are right, economy is on the mends. but it seems that you are dead wrong.

Let's see whether S&P500 can hold 200d MA come Friday. I only believe in Mr Market, not Mr Stalin. Australia unemployment rate actually reduced in April due to Chinese's demand, are you saying they are bluffing as well? Dry Baltic Index still up 4% last night BTW.

jitkiat
04-06-09, 10:56
London: The Baltic Dry Index, or BDI, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, advanced to its longest winning streak in almost three years on demand for vessels to haul iron ore to make steel.


The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes rose on Wednesday by 185 points, or 4.5%, to 4,291, according to the Baltic Exchange.


That’s a 23rd straight gain and the longest climb since July 2006.
Rates for capesize ships, typical iron ore carriers and the biggest in the gauge, rose 6.8% to $93,197 (around Rs44 lakh) a day.


Smaller panamaxes that compete for cargoes increased 5.3% to $28,110.
“Speaking to industry contacts, we sense the BDI is likely to continue to rebound in the near term, driven by continued demand for iron ore as well as congestion in China’s ports,” Jim Wong, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a report on Wednesday.


Chinese purchases of iron ore have increased as the government spends 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) on housing, transportation and other projects to support the country’s economy.


Imports of the material rose to a record for a third consecutive month in April, national customs data show.

stalingrad
04-06-09, 11:12
china does odd things, so you rely on these indicators at your own perils. It was china's purchase of crude that drove up the price to 150 in 2007. It was china's not buying crude that drove the price to 67 as of today. It is a planned economy, and the policy makers are not nimble enough to make rational decisions.

If you don't have faith in me, fine. Just look at what Temasek holdings is going lately. They sold their stakes in BOA, and barclay banks. If goodyear and ho ching think there are green shoots, would they have sold their bankings stakes? while I am sure that no one puts much stock in what ho ching is doing recently, what temasek is doing now is a sign that there are a lot of non-believers out there. the lee family certainly are non-believers.

jitkiat
04-06-09, 11:33
I trust Jim Rogers more than Temasek actually ... he did warn about our government losing $$$ when Citibank still at 30USD. Personally, I don't believe US economy can go back to its glorious day anytime soon but that does not mean that we will have asset deflation in the next 6 months and property market in SG is going to crash like you believe:

What kind of a market are you witnessing now?

It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.

Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.

There is already an underlying fear that this mountain of cash will chase assets and eventually force central banks to mop up liquidity. How do you think this would play out?

I know they all say, 'Don't worry, we will reverse gears and take the excess liquidity out in time.' I don't believe them for a minute. No one has ever done it that way. When central bankers started trying to, it caused so much pain that they quickly reversed or have got rid of that central banker and put somebody else in.

I just don't think they could do it. That's why I am worried about the bond market and the inflation. If all central banks do it together, that's going to lead to higher unemployment, riots in the streets, civil unrests.

august
04-06-09, 11:36
Let's see whether S&P500 can hold 200d MA come Friday. I only believe in Mr Market, not Mr Stalin. Australia unemployment rate actually reduced in April due to Chinese's demand, are you saying they are bluffing as well? Dry Baltic Index still up 4% last night BTW.


recent jump in production or shipping numbers is partially due to inventory replenishment which producers have allowed to run-down since 08Q4... things r stabilising, but that is not the same as a recovery.. ;)

vin002
04-06-09, 11:53
recent jump in production or shipping numbers is partially due to inventory replenishment which producers have allowed to run-down since 08Q4... things r stabilising, but that is not the same as a recovery.. ;)

I agree with this statement. But true investors buy on foreseeing stablity and sell when everyone think that the market recovered. This is the time where most people are caught when the market suddenly turn around.

bargain hunter
04-06-09, 13:29
then why is temasek putting more money into olam and nol?



china does odd things, so you rely on these indicators at your own perils. It was china's purchase of crude that drove up the price to 150 in 2007. It was china's not buying crude that drove the price to 67 as of today. It is a planned economy, and the policy makers are not nimble enough to make rational decisions.

If you don't have faith in me, fine. Just look at what Temasek holdings is going lately. They sold their stakes in BOA, and barclay banks. If goodyear and ho ching think there are green shoots, would they have sold their bankings stakes? while I am sure that no one puts much stock in what ho ching is doing recently, what temasek is doing now is a sign that there are a lot of non-believers out there. the lee family certainly are non-believers.

vin002
04-06-09, 14:01
then why is temasek putting more money into olam and nol?

Haha... Good question.

By selling BOA and barclay, I don't think Temasek is non believers. I feel that they have workout their sum that which has a better potential for higher returns in long term.