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firestarter
25-05-09, 09:06
i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..
what are your views?
HungryPillow
25-05-09, 09:39
I'm in the same boat as you. Seems like sellers and agents (even my own) now all believe the market is moving. I also don't think it's sustainable since there is bound to be more bad news coming later this year. I am a buyer as well... :(
If really bullish, why asset manager dumping 80 units of prime property at one go? esp when they bought when pricing was $1080 psf?
Not expecting price to increase significantly or expecting price to trend downwards and this is the last chance to offload?
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=7595
bargain hunter
25-05-09, 10:41
I guess Ferrell has liquidity needs. As recent as 2 months ago, rumours flying all over about them being in trouble etc, will be forced to sell at 800psf, some say 1000psf, agents tried offering collective cheques at 1200+psf. In the end, its proven that Ferrell has holding power and do not need to forcesell low. On the other hand, they also need to answer to their fund investors and an average of 1500psf vs 1080psf (I believe its lower since they block buy the units even before the 1st launch), they need to take some profits. I am pretty neutral on this. I think its not sustainable over the longer run but short term, there is evident pent up buying in prime areas driving up prices.
If really bullish, why asset manager dumping 80 units of prime property at one go? esp when they bought when pricing was $1080 psf?
Not expecting price to increase significantly or expecting price to trend downwards and this is the last chance to offload?
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=7595
i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..
what are your views?
cov? HDB ah?
There are only 3 possibilities:
1. Another blackswan event happens within the next 1-2 years, the bears here finally get their dream flats. Possible events include UK defaulting, Swine Flu turning lethal, US dollar crashing ....
2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.
3. To everyone surprise, US housing market rebounds quickly and consumers start spending again, we have V-shape recovery ... unlikely to happen
I bet new launches will have a lot of 1-2 room flats <900sqft (look at new FCT project near Potong Pasir). Let's see what is the demand like.
firestarter
25-05-09, 11:33
cov? HDB ah?
err .. you mean not called cov for private property ar ??
pai seh .. looking to buy first private property .. pang chance la ..
i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..
what are your views?
One thing I can be sure is that in short term, it is pretty bullish right now. If you always look at classify (which I believe you are since you are a potential buyer) you should see an increase in the asking price for majority of the units.
Buying property is quite a long term commitment, therefore, my advice is that buy it with a purpose and reasons behind it such as location, views, etc.
Don't buy it for the price although price plays an important factor.
Once the price is reasonable with potential of capital gain, go for it. By waiting the desired unit to drop by another $50psf could result in you losing your choice unit or the price going up by $50psf. Which is more critical?
My rationale is provided for those buying for own stay. If you buy for investment, then you will need to look at other sets of rules depending on long or short term.
There are only 3 possibilities:
1. Another blackswan event happens within the next 1-2 years, the bears here finally get their dream flats. Possible events include UK defaulting, Swine Flu turning lethal, US dollar crashing ....
2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.
3. To everyone surprise, US housing market rebounds quickly and consumers start spending again, we have V-shape recovery ... unlikely to happen
I bet new launches will have a lot of 1-2 room flats <900sqft (look at new FCT project near Potong Pasir). Let's see what is the demand like.
1. is 50/50.
2. is the present, an L or U shape watever it is called.. price stability for now
3. is highly unlikely... there's simply no foreseeable new engine of growth
I guess Ferrell has liquidity needs. As recent as 2 months ago, rumours flying all over about them being in trouble etc, will be forced to sell at 800psf, some say 1000psf, agents tried offering collective cheques at 1200+psf. In the end, its proven that Ferrell has holding power and do not need to forcesell low. On the other hand, they also need to answer to their fund investors and an average of 1500psf vs 1080psf (I believe its lower since they block buy the units even before the 1st launch), they need to take some profits. I am pretty neutral on this. I think its not sustainable over the longer run but short term, there is evident pent up buying in prime areas driving up prices.
I guess if I was in their shoes, trying to improve cashflow, I'd dump assets that are either not going to give me the returns or in danger of going down compared to other assets in my portfolio.
No way will I release assets that have better prospects.
2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.
Sticking to this one. Just like the period after 2000.
Slow grind to nowhere for a couple of years and then crawling upwards for another couple of years before the healing is done.
I guess if I was in their shoes, trying to improve cashflow, I'd dump assets that are either not going to give me the returns or in danger of going down compared to other assets in my portfolio.
No way will I release assets that have better prospects.
They bought RG on leverage i believe. Recapitalization was probably necessary to balance against fund redemptions which i'm sure happened. Today's rental returns cannot justify holding on to them, unlike REITs, whose rentals were negotiated before the crisis and are in effect for 2-3 years.
proud owner
25-05-09, 13:06
They bought RG on leverage i believe. Recapitalization was probably necessary to balance against fund redemptions which i'm sure happened. Today's rental returns cannot justify holding on to them, unlike REITs, whose rentals were negotiated before the crisis and are in effect for 2-3 years.
i agree ... the rental return for RG is just not good ...
1. is 50/50.
2. is the present, an L or U shape watever it is called.. price stability for now
3. is highly unlikely... there's simply no foreseeable new engine of growth
Wah, blackswan event is 50% chance:scared-5: like that I better exit everything and buy gold liao :tongue3:
who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
i agree ... the rental return for RG is just not good ...
who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!
:doh:
Attached PPI technical chart from 1960-present, help to explain why 140 is strong support point. Note people who dared to buy at 4Q1998 after the great bubble burst will make $$$ even with 3 blackswan events (2002 NASDAQ crash, 2003 SARS, 2008 bank crisis). Of course then the bears will say 4Q1998 very cheap ... well 1992 is even cheaper.
True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!
:doh:
This is post from another forum, I just quoted him:
by the way, was thinking about all this talk of 10% GDP contraction...
in my opinion, not too worried about a 10% contraction as long as it does not happen for more than 2 yrs in a row.
Look at the last 4 years:
2005 - 8.1%
2006 - 6.4%
2007 - 7.9%
2008 - 7.5%
So, if 2004 was a base 100, then we entered 2009 at a level of 133.
Even a 10% drop still puts us at 120 (ie. much higher than 2004 levels).
We would have to drop 10% for 3 years in a row to put the economy as bad as it was during SARS...
Even a 10% drop, followed by 3 years in a row of 5% drop....still better than levels after SARS.
This is why people believe Singapore will emerge faster and better than most countries once a turnaround happens...
True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!
:doh: You are not alone don't understand. What can we do ? Bank willing to loan, buyer willing to buy and no one willing to save FD. In term of normal Singaporean affordibility to buy a condo is considering high. In other words the condo price in Singapore still considered "cheap" now. More than 20% of population can very much afford to buy. Don't underestimate high educated double(husban and wife) income family.
2K-3K monthly installment just a very small percentage of their total income.
who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
I was just talkin to this american guy at work currently renting a condo near river valley... His lease just ended last mth and the owner renewed the lease for another 2 yrs for a 2 bedroom condo at $3500 / mth....
Previously the lease was $6000/mth for 1 year.... thats a discount of $2500 from the previous price....thats more than 40% drop in rental...
So yeah, ppl are still renting.. just at a much lower price...
True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!
:doh:
upgraders and those who buy for own stay lor ...
proud owner
25-05-09, 14:25
I was just talkin to this american guy at work currently renting a condo near river valley... His lease just ended last mth and the owner renewed the lease for another 2 yrs for a 2 bedroom condo at $3500 / mth....
Previously the lease was $6000/mth for 1 year.... thats a discount of $2500 from the previous price....thats more than 40% drop in rental...
So yeah, ppl are still renting.. just at a much lower price...
aiya
you should have told him to check around .. i paid 3.3k for 3 bedroom ...
aiya
you should have told him to check around .. i paid 3.3k for 3 bedroom ...
But location leh? is it equivalent..? hehe... but 3.3 k for 3 bedroom if close to city fringe..very good deal leh..
i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..
what are your views?
Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...
And putting aside all indexs, bond, forex, etc, going straight to the feel on property, my humble point is; while it could be difficult to fall to 2005 slump price, it is also quite an uphill task to see 2007 peak. You may think this is as good as not saying but then if you look at this in this manner, then why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.
Good scenerio don't need to say so for bad scenerio;
Buy and it go down you suay, cause already incur upfront capital outlay. Have to wait..
Dont buy and it go up, capital unexpended still not recognise as debt or expenditure yet, so well, a bit unlucky but can still fight another day another place.
The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.
Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.
And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.
I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.
But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...
And putting aside all indexs, bond, forex, etc, going straight to the feel on property, my humble point is; while it could be difficult to fall to 2005 slump price, it is also quite an uphill task to see 2007 peak. You may think this is as good as not saying but then if you look at this in this manner, then why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.
Good scenerio don't need to say so for bad scenerio;
Buy and it go down you suay, cause already incur upfront capital outlay. Have to wait..
Dont buy and it go up, capital unexpended still not recognise as debt or expenditure yet, so well, a bit unlucky but can still fight another day another place.
The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.
Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.
And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.
I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.
But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
apple3 does live up to his fame for balanced views :) although sometimes he can be punishing for the bulls :simmering:
proud owner
25-05-09, 16:10
But location leh? is it equivalent..? hehe... but 3.3 k for 3 bedroom if close to city fringe..very good deal leh..
i can walk to great world city ... valley point ...
which lane/ road is he at ?
apple3 does live up to his fame for balanced views :) although sometimes he can be punishing for the bulls :simmering:
I take it as a compliment. Thank you.
I saw your LUV possibilities, on the least there is still a L surfacing nowsaday huh? :p
i can walk to great world city ... valley point ...
which lane/ road is he at ?
He also never tell me, but close enough to great world city too i think... coz he ever walk to Velvet underground before when we had some drinks there... Nm..tmw at work i ask him..heh...
Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...
The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.
Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.
And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.
I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.
But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
I like your thoughts... as it is in line with my purchase profile..well said buddy..
why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.
Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties?? :confused:
Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties?? :confused:
Friend, check out the 5 room HDB resale prices at CCK in May 09:
440 Choa Chu Kang Ave 4 01 to 05 133.00
Model A 1993 $350,000.00 686B Choa Chu Kang Cres 06 to 10 110.00
Improved 2002 $357,000.00 686D Choa Chu Kang Cres 06 to 10 110.00
Improved 2002 $360,000.00 692A Choa Chu Kang Cres 01 to 05 110.00
Improved 2003 $356,000.00 692B Choa Chu Kang Cres 16 to 20 110.00
Improved 2003 $370,000.00 501 Choa Chu Kang St 51 11 to 15 128.00
Improved 1995 $377,500.00 501 Choa Chu Kang St 51 11 to 15 123.00
Improved 1995 $365,000.00
And none of the buyers in Mi Casa opted for IAS ... you still dun get the idea? New must be good, long q must be good, Santorini lifestyle wow :scared-4: I have been to Santorini, not even close
Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties?? :confused:
Angmor: I just bought the Admiral at River Road for US$500psf, overlooks the Hudson and i can see the whole manhattan skyline. Historically, it used to be one of the landing ports for immigrants to America.
Frenchie: I just bought a summer home in the French Riviera for US$500psf, slightly inland but can walk to the beach, and to the houses of the rich and famous. This area used to be where Napolean and Josephine were rumored to bonk naked on the sands.
Singie: I just bought Santorini lifestyle - Mi Casa! Also for US$500 psf.
Angmor and Frenchie: Wow, you must be rich! US$500 for great views of the Aegean. Sweet!
Singie: Simi Aegean? My Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, last time pig farm, chicken farm, and cemetary. But now, it's Mediterranean with Dancing Blocks!
Two Morals of the Story:
If it sounds too good to true it's probably marketing-speak
If your Sales Order states FEO Ltd, you probably just got conned
LOL .... ur funny style as usual :D
Hey, juz curious, u oso balanced view izit? Kpohing the poll results .....
Angmor: I just bought the Admiral at River Road for US$500psf, overlooks the Hudson and i can see the whole manhattan skyline. Historically, it used to be one of the landing ports for immigrants to America.
Frenchie: I just bought a summer home in the French Riviera for US$500psf, slightly inland but can walk to the beach, and to the houses of the rich and famous. This area used to be where Napolean and Josephine were rumored to bonk naked on the sands.
Singie: I just bought Santorini lifestyle - Mi Casa! Also for US$500 psf.
Angmor and Frenchie: Wow, you must be rich! US$500 for great views of the Aegean. Sweet!
Singie: Simi Aegean? My Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, last time pig farm, chicken farm, and cemetary. But now, it's Mediterranean with Dancing Blocks!
Two Morals of the Story:
If it sounds too good to true it's probably marketing-speak
If your Sales Order states FEO Ltd, you probably just got conned
http://gallery.photo.net/photo/6141671-md.jpg
http://www.micasachoachukang.com/images/micasa-artists-impression4.jpg
http://www.santonet.gr/santorini/santorini1.jpg
Wah v good ang moh ... especially like the part about TOP, sounds logical ..
& yes, u've mentioned about timing & ur belief in this before ... it's kinda related to someone's theory about the PPI oso ... :D
Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...
And putting aside all indexs, bond, forex, etc, going straight to the feel on property, my humble point is; while it could be difficult to fall to 2005 slump price, it is also quite an uphill task to see 2007 peak. You may think this is as good as not saying but then if you look at this in this manner, then why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.
........
And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.
I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.
But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
Which is Santorini which is Mi Casa ... reward for correct guess
Wahhhaaaa .... wat's the "reward" ah? Btw, the thread is about bull vs. bear (not santorini vs. mi casa hor) .... juz in case pp get too carried away lah :D
Which is Santorini which is Mi Casa ... reward for correct guess
Wahhhaaaa .... wat's the "reward" ah? Btw, the thread is about bull vs. bear (not santorini vs. mi casa hor) .... juz in case pp get too carried away lah :D
My bad.... shouldn't have brought up Mi Casa in my initial post..... :p
Btw, got a fren staying in Tropica in Tampines and she said that many sellers there recently withdraw their units fm sale coz they said stockmarket rallying so they hope to hold out for more $$$psf.... :confused:
Property_Owner
25-05-09, 21:05
i agree ... the rental return for RG is just not good ...
Pai seh, rental return not only not good fot RG, it's for whole singapore.
I like your thoughts... as it is in line with my purchase profile..well said buddy..
Thank you. But property agents will dread these thoughts, so to speak.
Angmor: I just bought the Admiral at River Road for US$500psf, overlooks the Hudson and i can see the whole manhattan skyline. Historically, it used to be one of the landing ports for immigrants to America.
Frenchie: I just bought a summer home in the French Riviera for US$500psf, slightly inland but can walk to the beach, and to the houses of the rich and famous. This area used to be where Napolean and Josephine were rumored to bonk naked on the sands.
Singie: I just bought Santorini lifestyle - Mi Casa! Also for US$500 psf.
Angmor and Frenchie: Wow, you must be rich! US$500 for great views of the Aegean. Sweet!
Singie: Simi Aegean? My Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, last time pig farm, chicken farm, and cemetary. But now, it's Mediterranean with Dancing Blocks!
Two Morals of the Story:
If it sounds too good to true it's probably marketing-speak
If your Sales Order states FEO Ltd, you probably just got conned
I have to salute your superb sense of humour & creativeness.
Like dat also can..
Wah v good ang moh ... especially like the part about TOP, sounds logical ..
& yes, u've mentioned about timing & ur belief in this before ... it's kinda related to someone's theory about the PPI oso ... :D
Thank, glad to have your appreciation. Ya, guess must have said it once somewhere.. you know, people in and out here..
Hey! Are you stalking my posts? hahahhahah.. :p
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 06:37
err...as an example, one of the other assets which they have in their portfolio is The Ferrell Residences which they are developing on their own. I guess they might view that as even more premium, have better prospects and anyway, their asking price would be high and probably cannot be reached yet as the area is not as hot as river valley so they may as well unload their units at RiverGate first.
I guess if I was in their shoes, trying to improve cashflow, I'd dump assets that are either not going to give me the returns or in danger of going down compared to other assets in my portfolio.
No way will I release assets that have better prospects.
Thank, glad to have your appreciation. Ya, guess must have said it once somewhere.. you know, people in and out here..
Hey! Are you stalking my posts? hahahhahah.. :p
For those forumers who can write pretty well, kinda lah .. coz I wanna learn & improve my ang-moh (oso kinda doing so for those with sense of humour, hope to get 'tickled' more often :D ... dun wanna see all gloom & doom leh)!
Two Morals of the Story:
If it sounds too good to true it's probably marketing-speak
If your Sales Order states FEO Ltd, you probably just got conned
I like your joke... Damn funny and true to certain extend...
Read Biz Times today, sales last week was good with prices up everywhere:
The Arte - 14 (900-930psf)
Martin Place R - 60+
Floridian - 9 (1220psf)
BelleRive - 5 (1430psf)
Vida - 2 (2030psf)
Lake Shore / WFW (9 each)
Mi casa - 7
Caspian - 4
the Mezzo - 25 (850-900psf)
In secondary market, 50+ Rivergate sold for 1400-1500psf.
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 09:52
Perhaps its possible that May sales total >1000 again and this time more than 500 units from sales in CCR?
Read Biz Times today, sales last week was good with prices up everywhere:
The Arte - 14 (900-930psf)
Martin Place R - 60+
Floridian - 9 (1220psf)
BelleRive - 5 (1430psf)
Vida - 2 (2030psf)
Lake Shore / WFW (9 each)
Mi casa - 7
Caspian - 4
the Mezzo - 25 (850-900psf)
In secondary market, 50+ Rivergate sold for 1400-1500psf.
looking from the poll, we have got more sellers/agents/developers etc here in the forum.... but somehow on stealth mode..
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 10:18
buyers can also admit/vote to be bullish even though they hope it will be bearish. There are also people looking to buy more units even though they already own units so they might vote to be bullish too. I am so confused I am neutral and shall refrain from voting. :confused:
looking from the poll, we have got more sellers/agents/developers etc here in the forum.... but somehow on stealth mode..
Perhaps its possible that May sales total >1000 again and this time more than 500 units from sales in CCR?
Highly likely, we already know that Capital land managed to sell 134 units of Wharf Residences in May. Parc Centennial 30+units, Martin Place Residences 140 and still releasing more units this weekend. So, 500 units in May at CCR should be about right.
If I were Capital land, I will launch 1000-unit Gillman Height at 900-950psf ... the location is excellent.
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 11:57
I think they have not done any planning for Gillman yet rite? Would take more than a year. Maybe they will launch farrer Court instead? but they didn't seem to have concerte plans to launch that this year either.
Highly likely, we already know that Capital land managed to sell 134 units of Wharf Residences in May. Parc Centennial 30+units, Martin Place Residences 140 and still releasing more units this weekend. So, 500 units in May at CCR should be about right.
If I were Capital land, I will launch 1000-unit Gillman Height at 900-950psf ... the location is excellent.
i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..
what are your views?
I felt the same too. Did some bank valuation and realised that they are 20K to 40K below my offer. I am not comfortable to top up with additional cash and therefore did not buy.
Most of the agents thinks that the economy has pick up because of the recent stock rally. However, this rally is not able to substain. Stock are flat this 2 weeks. I guess it still back to the fundamental of the economy ie the growth and unemploymemt rate
I think they have not done any planning for Gillman yet rite? Would take more than a year. Maybe they will launch farrer Court instead? but they didn't seem to have concerte plans to launch that this year either.
When they sell Wharf, in the press release, they mentioned about upcoming Gillman Height project. I think they will go for mass market condo 1st just like CDL going to launch Hong Leong Garden becos luxury segment is still facing oversupply problem.
If I were the developer, I will delay all the highend launches, sell mass market condos, reconfigure mid-end condos to all 1/2 room flats < 900sqft to target the 270k potential 5-room HDB upgraders ... this strategy should work even market is moving sideways for the next few months
BTW, they got Gillman at 365psf per plot ratio
I felt the same too. Did some bank valuation and realised that they are 20K to 40K below my offer. I am not comfortable to top up with additional cash and therefore did not buy.
Most of the agents thinks that the economy has pick up because of the recent stock rally. However, this rally is not able to substain. Stock are flat this 2 weeks. I guess it still back to the fundamental of the economy ie the growth and unemploymemt rate
Then hold your purchases especially if you are not in a hurry to buy. When the crisis started last year end and prices started to drop, people say will drop further. The reason I noted people are comparing prices from current low against the previously low in 2003-2005.
However, the conditions are different. Previously, the starting pay of many people are low. In addition, there wasn't any IR in the near future.
I believe that prices should go down but people must always factor in reasons to justify. Basing on guts feel that the recent stock rally is not substainable? 2009 is already half way through. Yes, this is a tough year and to think that next year is going to be tougher? Then all the measures of various govt must be ineffective. I do not cast aside the doubt of that possibility. However, when it become worst, will you still buy a property?
Similarly, that was what I heard when people say in that 2 months ago when STI is at 1600 levels. Don't enter the market as it will go lower...a Bear trap... etc.
Now STI almost stablised at 2,200 level and people start to feel that this is not substainable. So if it is not substainable, what is the level you think it will be? When it is at that level, will you buy?
For property purchases, various factors have to be considered. Once a unit is gone, it is gone. You can never buy back the same unit within a short term unless due to special reason.
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 14:58
that could mean a long wait? they just (finally) completed the deal for gillman last friday! so it could take a long while before its launch ready.
When they sell Wharf, in the press release, they mentioned about upcoming Gillman Height project. I think they will go for mass market condo 1st just like CDL going to launch Hong Leong Garden becos luxury segment is still facing oversupply problem.
If I were the developer, I will delay all the highend launches, sell mass market condos, reconfigure mid-end condos to all 1/2 room flats < 900sqft to target the 270k potential 5-room HDB upgraders ... this strategy should work even market is moving sideways for the next few months
BTW, they got Gillman at 365psf per plot ratio
proud owner
26-05-09, 16:59
that could mean a long wait? they just (finally) completed the deal for gillman last friday! so it could take a long while before its launch ready.
seems the property market is really taking cue from stock mkt ..
today STI negative ... even this forum is dead quiet ... :doh:
thought there would be some smart agents who would go around : "Today market down ..prices subdued..buy now before STI turn up again tomorrow .."
bargain hunter
26-05-09, 17:13
speaking of which, agents have been quiet on this forum for a week, perhaps their business is good, thus, no time to come online. :D
STI could possibly be down again tomorrow if US is down tonight so maybe the agents will run your advertising gig tomorrow. On the other hand, surely the property market can't be correlated to the STI on a daily basis?! :beats-me-man:
seems the property market is really taking cue from stock mkt ..
today STI negative ... even this forum is dead quiet ... :doh:
thought there would be some smart agents who would go around : "Today market down ..prices subdued..buy now before STI turn up again tomorrow .."
speaking of which, agents have been quiet on this forum for a week, perhaps their business is good, thus, no time to come online. :D
STI could possibly be down again tomorrow if US is down tonight so maybe the agents will run your advertising gig tomorrow. On the other hand, surely the property market can't be correlated to the STI on a daily basis?! :beats-me-man:
Surely not daily, but watch out on important break of support or resistance point of property stocks that have high exposure to residential properties. The 200 day moving average is an extremely important trend line as it is the divider btn bull & bear.
For the past few weeks, Singapore property stocks has shown strength relative to STI & S&P500 but it may run out of steam if S&P500's support at 875 is broken this week.
A bull market climbs walls of worries. Even if this is a bear market rally, I don't think it will end so soon due to the fact that lots of funds actually missed the boat.
Surely not daily, but watch out on important break of support or resistance point of property stocks that have high exposure to residential properties. The 200 day moving average is an extremely important trend line as it is the divider btn bull & bear.
For the past few weeks, Singapore property stocks has shown strength relative to STI & S&P500 but it may run out of steam if S&P500's support at 875 is broken this week.
A bull market climbs walls of worries. Even if this is a bear market rally, I don't think it will end so soon due to the fact that lots of funds actually missed the boat.
But a lot of funds did bail out of Singapore too. BTW, the SPC bail out is making a lot ppl uneasy.
On the index, I have said a dozen of times in this forum but can't help to keep repeating again.. don't know why, perhaps of those fact "deny-er". It not complex, it simple.
STI still downright off -30% from a year ago 3300. So did the property you eyeing off -30% from a year transact price? If no, then how can the recent rally push up property price?
If I use S&P or DJ, the comparison will be worse against Singapore property.
But a lot of funds did bail out of Singapore too. BTW, the SPC bail out is making a lot ppl uneasy.
On the index, I have said a dozen of times in this forum but can't help to keep repeating again.. don't know why, perhaps of those fact "deny-er". It not complex, it simple.
STI still downright off -30% from a year ago 3300. So did the property you eyeing off -30% from a year transact price? If no, then how can the recent rally push up property price?
If I use S&P or DJ, the comparison will be worse against Singapore property.
I agree with you. This is due to different dynamics (supply & demand etc) in stock and property market. In general, there is a correlation but it may not be 1 to 1. Sometimes, property will outperform STI e.g. property bubble at 1996. Sometimes, property will underperform STI e.g. (2003-2006). Therefore, the rebound of STI from a low of 1,500 to 2,200 does not mean property market must also rebound the same magnitude (it could be +1/2% in Q3 for example compared to a +30% in STI). However, do you agree that technical analysis of STI (or more importantly property stocks) may help to time your purchase & sale of properties at the bottom or peak of property cycles?
Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties?? :confused:
+-85% dweller still putting up in HDB in Singapore. Pentup demand from earlier property peak could be the reason as said by a lot of ppls.
But again, there is a limit to everything. Do you think entire 85% HDB dweller could be upgrade to HDB? Do we have a whole list of LH > 50years old to be revamp/enbloc/top-up lease?
But we do have an average of 500 units to be TOP every month in 2009. And a surplus in land bank from developer as well as DBSS entering the market to fight for mass market share. Unless nation per capital income could have some corrections, if not.. sigh, don't know lah..
I agree with you. This is due to different dynamics (supply & demand etc) in stock and property market. In general, there is a correlation but it may not be 1 to 1. Sometimes, property will outperform STI e.g. property bubble at 1996. Sometimes, property will underperform STI e.g. (2003-2006). Therefore, the rebound of STI from a low of 1,500 to 2,200 does not mean property market must also rebound the same magnitude (it could be +1/2% in Q3 for example compared to a +30% in STI). However, do you agree that technical analysis of STI (or more importantly property stocks) may help to time your purchase & sale of properties at the bottom or peak of property cycles?
I agree it as a supporting element but not deciding factor. Example: To reference recent rally as a justification for raising property price is something I don't agree. To par it on a 6months movement is more agreeable. The daily adjustment/reference is rubbish. And to supplement, your weeks of property counter is also too short AND it the finance leading the charge back, NOT property counter.
Thats what I mean.
US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6
Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance :cheers6:
May maybe the highest sales month since Feb...
Perhaps its possible that May sales total >1000 again and this time more than 500 units from sales in CCR?
When they sell Wharf, in the press release, they mentioned about upcoming Gillman Height project. I think they will go for mass market condo 1st just like CDL going to launch Hong Leong Garden becos luxury segment is still facing oversupply problem.
If I were the developer, I will delay all the highend launches, sell mass market condos, reconfigure mid-end condos to all 1/2 room flats < 900sqft to target the 270k potential 5-room HDB upgraders ... this strategy should work even market is moving sideways for the next few months
BTW, they got Gillman at 365psf per plot ratio
This one I totally agreed with you.
Yup, when the market is cheong-ing up, every one think it is a sucker rally... so always keep reminding themself to buy and must buy during market pull back... but when the market started to plunge like mad, they think it is the end of the world... so, when to buy?!?! :beats-me-man: People are funny animal....
Then hold your purchases especially if you are not in a hurry to buy. When the crisis started last year end and prices started to drop, people say will drop further. The reason I noted people are comparing prices from current low against the previously low in 2003-2005.
However, the conditions are different. Previously, the starting pay of many people are low. In addition, there wasn't any IR in the near future.
I believe that prices should go down but people must always factor in reasons to justify. Basing on guts feel that the recent stock rally is not substainable? 2009 is already half way through. Yes, this is a tough year and to think that next year is going to be tougher? Then all the measures of various govt must be ineffective. I do not cast aside the doubt of that possibility. However, when it become worst, will you still buy a property?
Similarly, that was what I heard when people say in that 2 months ago when STI is at 1600 levels. Don't enter the market as it will go lower...a Bear trap... etc.
Now STI almost stablised at 2,200 level and people start to feel that this is not substainable. So if it is not substainable, what is the level you think it will be? When it is at that level, will you buy?
For property purchases, various factors have to be considered. Once a unit is gone, it is gone. You can never buy back the same unit within a short term unless due to special reason.
Started to see double top for DJI and STI as well... volume decreasing day by day... MACD not improving... some funds offloaded big chip already... if STI can cross 2300, more cheongster come-in.
US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6
Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance :cheers6:
May maybe the highest sales month since Feb...
Wait till STI to break 2283 resistance with good volume 1st, then June will be even better.
Wait till STI to break 2283 resistance with good volume 1st, then June will be even better.
Tons of $$$ is still sitting on the sideline that do not believe this rally is real... if market cont. to cheong, some of this sideline $$$ will be sucked in and continue to fuel the market...!!! :scared-1:
Sentiment improving, many made good profit from stock market, and continue to lead property market to improve... Entering into 4Q09 is the critical thing to watch. :rolleyes:
One crucial thing to watch is HDB resale index. From what I checked for April/May, prices seem to be holding pretty well in CCK, Punggol, Sengkang, Simei (just look at how many txn is above 400k vs 1Q2009). Expect 2Q HDB resale price to be flat to slightly positive. It is important for HDB resale price index to hold to sustain the demand for the mass market condo segment.
US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6
Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance :cheers6:
Kiat, there you go again. Just last week, Standard & Poor's put Great Britain's credit on negative watch. Immediately, the pound sank, Europe stock market plummeted and you don't mentioned a single word. And today, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller reported state's National Home Price index tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history and you don't mention a bit during the earlier low opening. And only to surface your bullish remark upon current spike...
You did not comment my reply to you earlier so I don't know what is your take. And so what will happen if S&P875 cannot hold? you go down to 850? then 825? Look, I always tell my staff to watch out of the 3C saying; People can't CONVINCE, they CONFUSE and last resort, they CON.
1. Convince: Your financial illustration sure carry certain truth and may convince some that a rise in property price is imminent but some will also fail to realise that you have harness all but bearish elements.
2. Confuse: This is a property forum, maybe not a lot but certainly it get confusing with all these stuff.
3. Con: Mislead would be a better word to use.
Again, perhaps I'm a busybody and certain part of me always like to go for a detail search of all your posts and balance up your views. (thats also my right too, so to speak) But again, I never want to pump up a bearish view cause I'm never one. And I cannot set the objective of coming this forum just to engage you.
But well, I have been recieving positive comments and some encouraging post including those to my private mail box like this one;
just writing to express my appreciation of your analysis. i agree with a lot of what you said in this forum, especially this recent one:...
So I guess I will go on.. :p
One crucial thing to watch is HDB resale index. From what I checked for April/May, prices seem to be holding pretty well in CCK, Punggol, Sengkang, Simei (just look at how many txn is above 400k vs 1Q2009). Expect 2Q HDB resale price to be flat to slightly positive. It is important for HDB resale price index to hold to sustain the demand for the mass market condo segment.
Which intelligent people said that? A factor, may be but crucial, you sure?
You have a tons of goverment policy from family nucleus to income cap to CPF low-interest loan for HDB and you are referencing it as a crucial factor against a free market of private property? You sure?
It is due to current pent-up demand for mass market or DBSS? Why don't you bring in petrol price as well since you every statistic also can use.. hold here hold there.. :p
Kiat, there you go again. Just last week, Standard & Poor's put Great Britain's credit on negative watch. Immediately, the pound sank, Europe stock market plummeted and you don't mentioned a single word. And today, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller reported state's National Home Price index tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history and you don't mention a bit during the earlier low opening. And only to surface your bullish remark upon current spike...
You did not comment my reply to you earlier so I don't know what is your take. And so what will happen if S&P875 cannot hold? you go down to 850? then 825? Look, I always tell my staff to watch out of the 3C saying; People can't CONVINCE, they CONFUSE and last resort, they CON.
1. Convince: Your financial illustration sure carry certain truth and may convince some that a rise in property price is imminent but some will also fail to realise that you have harness all but bearish elements.
2. Confuse: This is a property forum, maybe not a lot but certainly it get confusing with all these stuff.
3. Con: Mislead would be a better word to use.
Again, perhaps I'm a busybody and certain part of me always like to go for a detail search of all your posts and balance up your views. (thats also my right too, so to speak) But again, I never want to pump up a bearish view cause I'm never one. And I cannot set the objective of coming this forum just to engage you.
But well, I have been recieving positive comments and some encouraging post including those to my private mail box like this one;
just writing to express my appreciation of your analysis. i agree with a lot of what you said in this forum, especially this recent one:...
So I guess I will go on.. :p
You are welcome to correct me. However, I hope you understand I am coming from pure technical analysis perspective. Those negative fundamentals that you have mentioned is true but is already public knowledge and the market knows them even before they become public. Stock market is an indicator of things to happen 6-12 months down the road, not reflecting present fundamentals. The fact that S&P500 chose to take the good news and ignored the bad news and rebounded strongly last night at the 875 support, means it is still bullish technically. Like you said, if it breaks down below 875 and go back to test the next support level, the technical position will then turn bearish.
Convince - I am not here to convince anybody to buy property just because S&P500 is rebounding off 875 ... not that the bears are so easily convinced to suddenly become bulls
Confuse - are you saying there is totally no correlation btn S&P500 and the Singapore property market? It may not be 1 to 1, but certainly, S&P500 represents the US economy, and Singapore, being an export-led economy will have to watch S&P500 closely.
Con/Misled - :doh: in my previous thread, I was bullish when STI about to break 1950, and about the possible recovery of PPI at Q2 2009 based on my technical analysis of PPI trend from 1960-present (obviously u disagreed with me then).
You are welcome to correct me. However, I hope you understand I am coming from pure technical analysis perspective. Those negative fundamentals that you have mentioned is true but is already public knowledge and the market knows them even before they become public. Stock market is an indicator of things to happen 6-12 months down the road, not reflecting present fundamentals. The fact that S&P500 chose to take the good news and ignored the bad news and rebounded strongly last night at the 875 support, means it is still bullish technically. Like you said, if it breaks down below 875 and go back to test the next support level, the technical position will then turn bearish.
Convince - I am not here to convince anybody to buy property just because S&P500 is rebounding off 875 ... not that the bears are so easily convinced to suddenly become bulls
Confuse - are you saying there is totally no correlation btn S&P500 and the Singapore property market? It may not be 1 to 1, but certainly, S&P500 represents the US economy, and Singapore, being an export-led economy will have to watch S&P500 closely.
Con/Misled - :doh: in my previous thread, I was bullish when STI about to break 1950, and about the possible recovery of PPI at Q2 2009 based on my technical analysis of PPI trend from 1960-present (obviously u disagreed with me then).
Refering to those in bold;
1. I got 300+ ppl in my team and together with me and none of us could guess accurately S&P is going to downgrade Britain, you do? How about sharing what are the rating from Moody coming along? I'm going for a heavy long or short..
2. S&P certainly has its weightage. BUT not JUST S&P, Singapore export-led economy depend on all fxxking things. From conductor inventory to sweet crude to finance. Why zero in on an instance when States ignore bad focus good? There are instances when it the other way round.
3. You are bullish on every bullish element let alone said PPI. Times change and ppl already putting away the 52weeks moving average cause if so, the high point of Citibank will be US$23.50 and with current $3-$4, how you going to access it? You are using Post-World War 2/Oil Crisis Economy to benchmark on your TA?
AND think and refer to your previous posts, whenever your said holding any sort of index, when and during that time what is the STI & S&P and movement? Pal, don't lah, I chk your angle before commenting on you.. You have an easy TA here hor.. Still put a patting icon as if your analysis is so.. how to say? Sophiscated?
AND what is this about HDB resale index?
Refering to those in bold;
1. I got 300+ ppl in my team and together with me and none of us could guess accurately S&P is going to downgrade Britain, you do? How about sharing what are the rating from Moody coming along? I'm going for a heavy long or short..
2. S&P certainly has its weightage. BUT not JUST S&P, Singapore export-led economy depend on all fxxking things. From conductor inventory to sweet crude to finance. Why zero in on an instance when States ignore bad focus good? There are instances when it the other way round.
3. You are bullish on every bullish element let alone said PPI. Times change and ppl already putting away the 52weeks moving average cause if so, the high point of Citibank will be US$23.50 and with current $3-$4, how you going to access it? You are using Post-World War 2/Oil Crisis Economy to benchmark on your TA?
AND think and refer to your previous posts, whenever your said holding any sort of index, when and during that time what is the STI & S&P and movement? Pal, don't lah, I chk your angle before commenting on you.. You have an easy TA here hor.. Still put a patting icon as if your analysis is so.. how to say? Sophiscated?
AND what is this about HDB resale index?
1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do
2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?
I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst :)
bargain hunter
27-05-09, 15:13
Looks like property counters have just taken over from finance and leading the charge back for the STI to break the 2284 resistance. For now, new multi month highs for property stocks, banks not yet.
I agree it as a supporting element but not deciding factor. Example: To reference recent rally as a justification for raising property price is something I don't agree. To par it on a 6months movement is more agreeable. The daily adjustment/reference is rubbish. And to supplement, your weeks of property counter is also too short AND it the finance leading the charge back, NOT property counter.
Thats what I mean.
US GDP may turn positive in 2Q or 3Q09 :D
1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do
2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?
I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst :)
da good times are back! :im-so-happy:
da good times are back! :im-so-happy:
the more everyone turns bullish, the more i want to put my place on the market for sale.
Sell when everyone buys, buy when there's blood in the streets.
the more everyone turns bullish, the more i want to put my place on the market for sale.
Sell when everyone buys, buy when there's blood in the streets.
dun lidat leh... let STI go higher so that i can unload :ashamed1:
dun lidat leh... let STI go higher so that i can unload :ashamed1:
market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.
if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.
bargain hunter
27-05-09, 16:20
wah, if its a real offer, just accept and buy your gallardo. :)
market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.
if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.
wah, if its a real offer, just accept and buy your gallardo. :)
yes, i will by gallardo from Tomy, 1/8 scale.
But really i'll use the profit to buy a sedgway (always wanted one); a Nike Sumo Hybrid 7 iron replacement so i can cheat at the green; and put the rest back into the overall pot.
worse come to worse, draw out some in $10,000 bills, fold paper crane, hang em up, pose and take picture, and redeposit the cranes at the bank.
i've got to at least do this before i conk off, or before the world ends in 2012 according to the mayans
market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.
if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.
u wan to sell your sail ah?? :confused:
actually what i really really wanna do is this, whether i sell or not.
a certain old coot is bound to conk off sooner or later, and sooner or later his face will be on a certain city-state's dollar bills.
i'll go to muthu's curry suntec, eat a load of fish head curry and butter chicken, and have a kopi. then i'll take a stroll to conrad lobby lounge toilet and take a dump.
i'll use a wad of the bills with the new face, and wipe my smelly, spicy arse.
that is possibly the closest the old coot will ever come to understanding the man-in-the-street
proud owner
27-05-09, 16:35
actually what i really really wanna do is this, whether i sell or not.
a certain old coot is bound to conk off sooner or later, and sooner or later his face will be on a certain city-state's dollar bills.
i'll go to muthu's curry suntec, eat a load of fish head curry and butter chicken, and have a kopi. then i'll take a stroll to conrad lobby lounge toilet and take a dump.
i'll use a wad of the bills with the new face, and wipe my smelly, spicy arse.
that is possibly the closest the old coot will ever come to understanding the man-in-the-street
ahhaaha
eerrr did he just speak in today's paper ? about some success in some money losing projects ??
do the chow yuen fatt one, light a ciggie with the burning note ~~
bargain hunter
27-05-09, 16:37
yeah, gfoo, you got a bid for your sail? i thought you had just finished renovating and just moved in to stay in the unit?
u wan to sell your sail ah?? :confused:
yeah, you got a bid for your sail? i thought you had just finished renovating and just moved in to stay in the unit?
yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.
but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.
but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.
yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.
but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.
but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.
one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.
bargain hunter
27-05-09, 16:44
but this is your agent friend, surely won't be a bluff bid? anyway, you said the market is crazy, quote a crazy price and if the ang mor still want it then let him have it!
yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.
but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.
but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.
I know i'm in 2 minds about it actually. But if i'm offerd thus when the whole area is a construction site, what will the pricing be like when everything comes online early 2010? Wife wants me to wait - we hv adequate reserves for now anyways
But it is v v tempting
Property market has gone crazy, buyers all rushing in at the same time. Mix of genuine buyers, speculators, investors. All were on the side line now jumping in. I don't know where this will end.
the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.
if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.
the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.
if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.
Not yet :tsk-tsk: from a technical analysis of PPI, the next major resistance is at 220 and above, we are just boucing off at 140 friend, the 1996 propery bubble actually went beyond the major resistance (even technical analysis will fail to predict that). But this could take a few more years.
Property_Owner
27-05-09, 19:49
the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.
if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.
Gfoo, sorry for my 2 cents. My thoughts are more bad news to come. Maybe after June. This stock rally will not stays long. Once reach 2500 may crash. For sellers who believe market is good and move prices up few hundreds psf, good luck to your for doing so. Those smart sellers will let go now to buyers willing to chase market without moving up prices. Bank valuation has no chance at all this few weeks. If market is really moving up, do you think bank don't want to earn more? This current situation is also cause by agents that knows nothing about stock and the REAL MARKET value in Singapore. believe me, offer comes in, cash out. Don't believe the sky. :)
no worries PO, i share your views completely.
CityDev ... broke 2 major resistances with strong volume within 2 months. Sooner or later, bullish technical must be proven by bullish data ... may be this week US data is going to be good
1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do
2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?
I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst :)
Funda your head lah, I'm not a fundamentalist. I just giving my share to balance up and you always don't re-focus to our discussion and spourt new subjects..
1. May I know what is the market trend for the next 2 weeks and how you derive that? Thats what a lot of ppl do accompany by all the analyst in pre-lehman leh.. Including GIC & TH.. but why huh? You so good you must have short post-lehman all the way to March and what is it.. increase your long position after that in April right?
Ok, save the sacrasm, ultimately, what I'm trying to say is, Market, Index, Credit Rating are all unpredictable and in fact, full of volatility at present times. Everyone are using all factors be it breakpoint or historical data to forecast but none are soothsayer. AND I hope you Mr Kiat don't publish illustration base on bullish element ONLY. Thats all, simple right? After all, you may be right in the next 3 mths and it ok.. just give a balance view..
2. Wa.. You are really a big hard-core bull raiser.. and since when crude oil at 62 is everyone surprise? Anyway..
Ok. Our government last Thu still maintained its forecast of the economy shrinking by between 6 per cent and 9 per cent. External demand from the United States and Europe has not returned. Inventory though lower now but yet to led any "kick-start" with exports still at an unexpected monthly fall in April. For US, housing sector, rising retrenchments, GM Chp11 still looming. First-quarter non-oil domestic exports fell by 7.4 per cent from last year's fourth quarter. Resident unemployment rate was still at 4.8 per cent, fund manager yet to return with their favourite less maybe F&N and a couple and they are letting the small player having the fun.. NEED I SAY MORE?
Can I bring in H1N1? Since you India Election also can dump in..
:p
one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.
Ok, this gonna be my favourite.. how are you going to walk your dog then? I always thinking of walking my dog along shenton, cecil, anson.. etc. So.. hmmm..
If 1 dog poo at shenton concrete, no one bother and big brother will take action.
If 100,000 dogs poo at shenton concrete, will they build a dog-run at shenton?
I can help if you wanna to start the drive, I got 3 dogs..
Funda your head lah, I'm not a fundamentalist. I just giving my share to balance up and you always don't re-focus to our discussion and spourt new subjects..
1. May I know what is the market trend for the next 2 weeks and how you derive that? Thats what a lot of ppl do accompany by all the analyst in pre-lehman leh.. Including GIC & TH.. but why huh? You so good you must have short post-lehman all the way to March and what is it.. increase your long position after that in April right?
Ok, save the sacrasm, ultimately, what I'm trying to say is, Market, Index, Credit Rating are all unpredictable and in fact, full of volatility at present times. Everyone are using all factors be it breakpoint or historical data to forecast but none are soothsayer. AND I hope you Mr Kiat don't publish illustration base on bullish element ONLY. Thats all, simple right? After all, you may be right in the next 3 mths and it ok.. just give a balance view..
2. Wa.. You are really a big hard-core bull raiser.. and since when crude oil at 62 is everyone surprise? Anyway..
Ok. Our government last Thu still maintained its forecast of the economy shrinking by between 6 per cent and 9 per cent. External demand from the United States and Europe has not returned. Inventory though lower now but yet to led any "kick-start" with exports still at an unexpected monthly fall in April. For US, housing sector, rising retrenchments, GM Chp11 still looming. First-quarter non-oil domestic exports fell by 7.4 per cent from last year's fourth quarter. Resident unemployment rate was still at 4.8 per cent, fund manager yet to return with their favourite less maybe F&N and a couple and they are letting the small player having the fun.. NEED I SAY MORE?
Can I bring in H1N1? Since you India Election also can dump in..
:p
Yah, market already priced in all the negative fundementals you & the bears in this forum keep repeating. How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore? Are the funds who bought up large number of shares in Hong Kong, India and Singapore nuts?
I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.
And to answer your question, the market trend for next 2 weeks is bullish because STI closed above 2,283 with good volume today. Of course, if H1NI suddenly kills half of Singaporeans next 2 weeks ... :beats-me-man:
I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.
Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*
Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....
:D
Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*
Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....
:D
Yes, TA does use old data in order to plot to moving average, resistance and support lines. A pure fundamentalist, will dismiss anything technical i.e. he/she will think TA is bullshit in helping to make/time an investment decision. For example, in TA, 200 day moving average is widely regarded as a divider between bull & bear and used by lots of analysts for their calls for long/short. A pure fundamentalist will never believe in that.
In general, a professional fundementalist will be better in predicting long term trend. For example, bcos Singapore governement is good, clean and Singaporeans has high saving rate, limited land, so must be good idea to buy property for long term in SG .. this is pure fundamental analysis. Whereas in TA, we will seek to predict the market direction in the short term (typically no more than 2 weeks) by reading bullish or bearsh signal. For example, if CityDev breaks down below 200d MA, immediately start selling your properties in Singapore and vice versa. So far, we have already 2 bullish signals ...1st is the STI breaking above 1,950, 2nd is today, breaking above 2,283 (same for CityDev & other property stocks).
one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.
Just try not to let your dog shit at my spot at the slip road adjacent to the marina especially around 6-7 pm until the missus leaves ORQ...
Thank you in advance hor....paisey for being inconsiderate, but now i've moved myself to the car park at the Partyworld KTV nearer to Tg Pagar coz i see too many cars there blocking traffic..
Sure to drive ppl nuts...
Perhaps I should have just quoted somebody else's TA ... save my breath .. this is really excellent TA
http://www.sias.org.sg/sites/sias.org.sg/CMS/File/singaporeInvestor/chartwatchphillip140509.html
ahh .. oic ... like that means the tech analysis is not suitable or appropriate to be used to predict/forecast the property mkt izit which is supposed to be mid or long-term in nature rt???
If correlation is not 1-1, then wat kinda ratio would make more sense for us to see the link stock & property? Can it be done in the first place?
ahh .. oic ... like that means the tech analysis is not suitable or appropriate to be used to predict/forecast the property mkt izit which is supposed to be mid or long-term in nature rt???
If correlation is not 1-1, then wat kinda ratio would make more sense for us to see the link stock & property? Can it be done in the first place?
Read the TA on PPI I posted a few times to this forum.
For the ratio, take the All property index divide by PPI loh
Yah, market already priced in all the negative fundementals you & the bears in this forum keep repeating. How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore? Are the funds who bought up large number of shares in Hong Kong, India and Singapore nuts?
I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.
And to answer your question, the market trend for next 2 weeks is bullish because STI closed above 2,283 with good volume today. Of course, if H1NI suddenly kills half of Singaporeans next 2 weeks ... :beats-me-man:
How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore?
Then? Sorry, maybe I'm stupid but whats there to explain? No one expect the stocks market to crash upon the 1st confirmed case especially after Uncle Koh had explained in great length. And so? I'm confuse, I thought we are on broad base and now you zoom in on property counter? And what is so different that need to be explain? I meant.. shares.. counter.. so Wilmar at 4.71 so cooking oil are selling good? Pal, there are many reasons for a stock movement and you can't use today CDL and Cap movement/volume to justify anything yet!
And talk about fund, you just name it. Aberdeen? Superfund? Lion? Come on, you don't turn my words. They are not nut and will they be call nut or saint no one know and thats NOT MY POINT! Goodness, I'm saying the volume from them is very minimum. They are still parking somewhere. Please read! Thank you!
Perhaps I should have just quoted somebody else's TA ... save my breath .. this is really excellent TA
http://www.sias.org.sg/sites/sias.org.sg/CMS/File/singaporeInvestor/chartwatchphillip140509.html
Fairly well. But.. what does this got to do with property???
hahahha.. hey, you are using short-term tools/methology for long-term. And both of them are on wideness corner. This is beginning to look like shareinvestor.com and not condosingapore.com. Hardly anyone I came across using so TA or FA to quantify property price at short term.
lol.. Can I not having a property but I sell you first? I collect the full amount on T+3 and upon TOP I deliver the unit to you. In between none of your business, I could sell out buy back, buy back sell out.. even sell more than one or buy one sell two.. also can buy down average or trail loss... quite fun :p
hahhahhahah.. If you know what I mean
Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*
Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....
:D
Both equally fun.. :p
Both equally fun.. :p
It wont be fun for desperate bears when STI closed above 2,283 today :banghead:
Read the TA on PPI I posted a few times to this forum.
For the ratio, take the All property index divide by PPI loh
Cheerful, my opinion is don't bother lah. Even URA took a quarter to generate the index and here Mr Kiat is per day TA charting on breaking point here and holding point there with all the triangle to affect on the index.
Wa lau, I finally understand where you coming from after see your reference site. Please lah, 2 different good indicators or methology doesn't mean combine will give a ultra power gauge to property pricing lah. Even BT put 6mths for STI against Property. I thought you have gen-x methology that could even include HDB resale index.
you somemore even use S&P, crude oil, shipping index!! India election rally... hahahha.. You really so hard up to bulldozer the property sentimental in this forum meh?? Just because of your DB?
hahhahah.. ai ya.. don't take it too hard, go on lah..
It wont be fun for desperate bears when STI closed above 2,283 today :banghead:
True. I must be a lucky gummy bear cause I short GAR today.
Cheerful, my opinion is don't bother lah. Even URA took a quarter to generate the index and here Mr Kiat is per day TA charting on breaking point here and holding point there with all the triangle to affect on the index.
Wa lau, I finally understand where you coming from after see your reference site. Please lah, 2 different good indicators or methology doesn't mean combine will give a ultra power gauge to property pricing lah. Even BT put 6mths for STI against Property. I thought you have gen-x methology that could even include HDB resale index.
you somemore even use S&P, crude oil, shipping index!! India election rally... hahahha.. You really so hard up to bulldozer the property sentimental in this forum meh?? Just because of your DB?
hahhahah.. ai ya.. don't take it too hard, go on lah..
Well, at least I contributed my TA to this forum, if you don't appreciate it other people will. I am eagerly waiting to see what kind of so-called timing to buy you are going to contribute to this forum :sleep: I guess you will just keep saying "no hurry lah", "sure go sideways one lah" ...
Just try not to let your dog shit at my spot at the slip road adjacent to the marina especially around 6-7 pm until the missus leaves ORQ...
Thank you in advance hor....paisey for being inconsiderate, but now i've moved myself to the car park at the Partyworld KTV nearer to Tg Pagar coz i see too many cars there blocking traffic..
Sure to drive ppl nuts...
lol sorries dude, but sometimes the jam does get irritating when it's wholly unecessary.
nvm. gimme your chia pai, make and color of car. i post it up on notice board, and advise people not to launch high-floor water balloons
Well, at least I contributed my TA to this forum, if you don't appreciate it other people will. I am eagerly waiting to see what kind of so-called timing to buy you are going to contribute to this forum :sleep: I guess you will just keep saying "no hurry lah", "sure go sideways one lah" ...
Hmm.. No one is saying you are not contributing and thats perfectly your right. I mean, good or bad are both equally a form of contribution and likewise, you could see ppl appreciate or criticise on both end. Thats the beauty of a forum.
As for my analysis/posting, by all mean do go ahead and judge, comment or criticise as you deem fit. It absolutely perfectly alright.
It is interesting that China and US are forced into a very special relationship as now economy tops the agenda and I am surprised Geithner can speak Mandarin ?! Extract from BT:
Geithner as China's ally
Beijing may well cite its fear that surging US debt risks devastating the value of its estimated US$1.5 trillion in dollar-denominated investments. But Mr Geithner's visit is shaping up as more of a confidence-building exercise than a forum for hashing out concrete plans to address the many thorny issues in the Sino-US economic relationship.
'China may again raise concerns about the safety of its assets in the United States, but it will probably not issue any detailed proposals or to-do lists,' said Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
'Its messages are more likely to be diplomatic and friendly,' he said. One reason that Chinese leaders may be wary of pressing Mr Geithner too hard is because they see him as a crucial ally in Washington.
Beijing worries that the Democrat-dominated US Congress may turn to protectionism against Chinese-made goods. Experience has taught China that the most effective way to make its voice heard in Washington is to go to straight to the top.
'It is better for the Chinese leadership to talk with Geithner and (President Barack) Obama than to lobby the House or the Senate,' said Tao Xie, an expert on Sino-US relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
Mr Geithner has a tough act to follow. Henry Paulson, his predecessor, made China the centre of his international focus, repeatedly visiting Beijing and launching regular cabinet-level meetings.
For his part, Mr Geithner, a Mandarin speaker, has taken pains to make amends after an early misstep in January in which he called China a currency manipulator, a label Treasury declined to apply in a report to Congress in April.
He has succeeded in putting this early slip-up behind him, and his eagerness to mend fences has cemented Beijing's belief that the Obama administration will treat China as an equal, not as a country it can lecture.
'They are getting on to better terms as they get to know each other better,' Mr Tao said. 'The Chinese leadership has very high expectations for President Obama
Other weekend launches include Balcon East in Upper East Coast Road. Tong Eng Group started sales at its 37-unit development on Thursday last week and managed to sell 28 units. Prices ranged from just below $500,000 to $1.39 million, with the one- to two-bedders costing about $850 psf, and three-bedders at $780 psf, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang.
Next month, new re-launches could include the 91-unit Nathan Residences in Nathan Road and Frasers’ 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station. The former’s preview last September at an average of $2,000 psf met with no success.
Frasers has reconfigured the layout in the Woodleigh project, which previously had 300 units, to accommodate the more affordable one-bedders of 400 sq ft. The rest will be two-, three- and four-bedders. Prices will be ‘at the upper end of $750 psf to $780 psf’, said Mr Cheang.
bargain hunter
29-05-09, 09:46
Do you have the full article for this?
Other weekend launches include Balcon East in Upper East Coast Road. Tong Eng Group started sales at its 37-unit development on Thursday last week and managed to sell 28 units. Prices ranged from just below $500,000 to $1.39 million, with the one- to two-bedders costing about $850 psf, and three-bedders at $780 psf, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang.
Next month, new re-launches could include the 91-unit Nathan Residences in Nathan Road and Frasers’ 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station. The former’s preview last September at an average of $2,000 psf met with no success.
Frasers has reconfigured the layout in the Woodleigh project, which previously had 300 units, to accommodate the more affordable one-bedders of 400 sq ft. The rest will be two-, three- and four-bedders. Prices will be ‘at the upper end of $750 psf to $780 psf’, said Mr Cheang.
Do you have the full article for this?
http://blog.hotvictory.com/
bargain hunter
29-05-09, 09:55
Thanks! this is a informative blog.
http://blog.hotvictory.com/
Is property becoming king again? (http://blog.hotvictory.com/2009/05/29/is-property-becoming-king-again/)
Posted on May 29th, 2009 by Mindy Yong (http://blog.hotvictory.com/author/admin/).
Categories: Singapore News (http://blog.hotvictory.com/category/news-in-singapore/).
EVERYBODY wants to believe that the light at the end of the tunnel of the current economic crisis is now discernible. And why not? After almost two years of persistently gloomy news, it is certainly time for a change, even if most economic indicators say otherwise.
One of the places in which this optimism is reflected is the property market. Earlier this month, the Urban Redevelopment Authority released data revealing that developer sales in April hit over 1,200 transactions, following two consecutive months of exuberant sales. Indeed, the developer sales for the January-April period with 3,867 units sold now represents almost 90 per cent of all developer sales in 2008 (4,382 units). And unlike earlier months, the transactions in April were done across various market segments, which could suggest a broad base recovery.
Yet, the last time we checked, the Singapore government had revised its GDP forecast downward, unemployment had risen, and exports had fallen. And while there is persistent talk of ‘green shoots’ of recovery, even if one buys into the rhetoric, what is curious is that the property market appears to have jumped the gun. Yes, the stock market has recovered somewhat of late, but at least for the last week, property stocks have outperformed the overall market.
So is it blind optimism that is driving the property market? Some believe that these buyers are just following the herd. Property prices of new homes have begun to moderate downwards and while new homes are still by no means cheap, some argue that buyers are afraid of ‘missing the boat’. But can this really be a concern? After all, as has been well reported, there is expected to be a glut of new housing supply next year.
One reason could be that investors are buying into forecasts, now coming in thick and fast, of an economic recovery next year. Therefore they don’t want to lose out on the discounts being offered now, even at the risk of having to hold on to their new properties for a longer time in the future before the recovery really gets underway and the market turns decisively.
Another plausible reason for the surge in sales could be that fixed deposit rates have fallen to near five-year lows, inducing many to move their savings into property instead - which implies that as the deflationary environment abates, property is replacing cash as king.
Whatever the reason, the ongoing surge in property transactions certainly warrants some study. Singapore is unique in many ways, but if the property market here is an anomaly, it would be useful to know why - if only to help the market function more efficiently and help those who really need a home to get a clear picture of where property prices are headed.
Source : Business Times - 29 May 2009
See the big picture.
Thanks for sharing. I re-post the chart below. Hope you don't mind.
http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/5222/newunitshistoricalavera.png
Thanks for sharing. I re-post the chart below. Hope you don't mind.
http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/5222/newunitshistoricalavera.png
1997 property bubble burst / Asian currency crisis
1998/99 HDB upgraders on the move to snap up condos, push up PPI from 100 to 140
2000/2001 NASDAQ crash, PPI back down to 120
2002 HDB upgraders on the move, again, but index higher than 1999 liao
2003 SARS, PPI back down to 110
2004 -
2005/06/07 financial bubble in the US, property rebounded to 1996 level at 180
2008 crash again back to 140
2009 HDB upgraders on the move again
file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/jitkiatt/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-6.jpg
1997 property bubble burst / Asian currency crisis
1998/99 HDB upgraders on the move to snap up condos, push up PPI from 100 to 140
2000/2001 NASDAQ crash, PPI back down to 120
2002 HDB upgraders on the move, again, but index higher than 1999 liao
2003 SARS, PPI back down to 110
2004 -
2005/06/07 financial bubble in the US, property rebounded to 1996 level at 180
2008 crash again back to 140
2009 HDB upgraders on the move again
file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/jitkiatt/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-6.jpg
From the chart, this is historical record low for sales of new units. Meaning it has bottom out... Therefore, future outlook should be increasing. And what that happened, prices will become very bullish.
Hi Firec
No problem. Thanks!
To clear the looming supply, you need to chalk up 9000 units on consecutively from now to 2013. (That is if you assume, no more additional new additions by developers.)
From 1996 - 2002. We managed to chalk up 48763 units over 7 years.
Or if you look at year 2000 - 2006, it is 46912 units over 7 years.
I left out year 2007 bec that is obviously an outlier (overly easy credit situation, we are not returning to that anytime soon).
After a bull year, the next 2 years always feature below average trend take up. The mkt is going to take a longer time to come back from 2007 bumper year crash (14000+).
That is why I do not think this year we will exceed 7500 units unless price cuts come in. The supply of HDB upgrades will be thinning out as prices have indeed fallen, makes the springboard less springy.
Already at current figures, many have been surprised but will there be a repeat of this feat?
(I have not looked into the capital values over the years yet but I doubt the data will be easy to find. I will put it up once I get them.)
With the H1N1 still an unknown and more retrenchments (check around, some companies in Raffles Place that have not gone through any retrenchment exercise are drawing up shortlists.)
Once the mkt clears the buyers at this price levels, the only way for them to move units fast is for the economy to do a 180 degree turn in outlook or for prices to gradually fall.
Artitcles trying make the current figures look impressive by quoting a "90% of last yr sales and it's only May" figure are just plain misleading if they do not mention:Last yr's figure was 4392 units! The worst since 1996!
Hi Firec
After a bull year, the next 2 years always feature below average trend take up. The mkt is going to take a longer time to come back from 2007 bumper year crash (14000+).
That is why I do not think this year we will exceed 7500 units unless price cuts come in. The supply of HDB upgrades will be thinning out as prices have indeed fallen, makes the springboard less springy.
Once the mkt clears the buyers at this price levels, the only way for them to move units fast is for the economy to do a 180 degree turn in outlook or for prices to gradually fall.
Artitcles trying make the current figures look impressive by quoting a "90% of last yr sales and it's only May" figure are just plain misleading if they do not mention:Last yr's figure was 4392 units! The worst since 1996!
Very well articulated.... great post! :cheers6:
A lot of people know there is an oversupply. But they don't know that oversupply is concentrated at the highend/luxury segment. That's why both GS analyst and Kwek Leng Beng said price of highend segment will stay flat for next 2 years.
Therefore, whether 7,500 new home sales can be achieved in 2009, the key thing to watch for is the price of HDB resale flat.
bargain hunter
29-05-09, 19:41
If we get another 1200 units sold in May, the 5 month total will cross 5000 units. That means the average of 350 units a month for the remaining 7 months will ensure we cross 7500 units. Even if we assume 800+ units for May, an average of 400 units a month for the remaining 7 months will clear 7500 for full year. Not that difficult.
That is why I do not think this year we will exceed 7500 units unless price cuts come in.
If we get another 1200 units sold in May, the 5 month total will cross 5000 units. That means the average of 350 units a month for the remaining 7 months will ensure we cross 7500 units. Even if we assume 800+ units for May, an average of 400 units a month for the remaining 7 months will clear 7500 for full year. Not that difficult.
That is like selling 8 One Amber sized developments. Not an easy feat (if no discounts are dangled) which was why the April cumulative sales figure took everyone by surprise.
The analysts are assuming this trend is sustainable for the rest of the year and none of them have taken on the supply issue head on in their report and use it as a caveat to their bullish projection: "Supply may dampen prices." Just one sentence.
The supply of buyers at the current price levels will be exhausted sometime down the road and anymore sales later will depend on the risk appetite and lower pricing.
A lot of people know there is an oversupply. But they don't know that oversupply is concentrated at the highend/luxury segment.
Therefore, whether 7,500 new home sales can be achieved in 2009, the key thing to watch for is the price of HDB resale flat.
If the high end is going to be sluggish, whither the mid tier and mass mkt?
I have been checking prices of HDB 4-5 room, prices have come off about 3% on average for the outlying areas. It will not crash but the the HDB upgrader spigot will be closing soon.
The stock mkt effect only comes into the equation when there is a general air of speculative interest in the air.
The analysts are assuming this trend is sustainable for the rest of the year and none of them have taken on the supply issue head on in their report and use it as a caveat to their bullish projection: "Supply may dampen prices." Just one sentence.
Have you read Goldman Sachs report (go to the WFW thread and look for it)? I think your comment is a bit unfair to them.
Extract from GS's report about supply:
bargain hunter
29-05-09, 22:58
that's true. its just that may sales is likely to be very good so i think at least 1000 units sold in may is possible. as for the rest of the year, i guess the buying will cool off but around 400 units a month seems ok if it comes from a good mix of all the CCR, RCR and OCR on a monthly basis. Don't forget, monkey sized unit also 1 unit, penthouse also 1 unit and many monkey units and/or a certain Caspian like project combined probably can sustain that 400 units a month on average i guess.
That is like selling 8 One Amber sized developments. Not an easy feat (if no discounts are dangled) which was why the April cumulative sales figure took everyone by surprise.
The analysts are assuming this trend is sustainable for the rest of the year and none of them have taken on the supply issue head on in their report and use it as a caveat to their bullish projection: "Supply may dampen prices." Just one sentence.
The supply of buyers at the current price levels will be exhausted sometime down the road and anymore sales later will depend on the risk appetite and lower pricing.
Sales of May09 may cross 1400 units. The sales are very good this month. let's wait another 2 weeks to see the official data.
If we get another 1200 units sold in May, the 5 month total will cross 5000 units. That means the average of 350 units a month for the remaining 7 months will ensure we cross 7500 units. Even if we assume 800+ units for May, an average of 400 units a month for the remaining 7 months will clear 7500 for full year. Not that difficult.
Interesting to see developers trying all sorts to infuse the market with "upbeat" news...
Leasehold Botannia condominium project at West Coast fully sold
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 May 2009 2051 hrs (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/432654/1/.html)
*report never say took them how long to achieve this* :confused:
15 out of 40 units at Martin Place Residences sold
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 May 2009 2118 hrs (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/432658/1/.html)
*15 out of 40 out of 302 units blah...blah...blah... so are we suppose to pop the champagne now???*:confused:
bargain hunter
30-05-09, 00:31
i think the CNA report focused on the wrong thing for Martin Place. The key idea is that the 15 units sold out of the 40 units released yesterday was achieved without any advertising and that 95% of the 1st block ie half the project is already sold before its launched. But the interesting thing will be to see what is the response for the remaining units today when it is officially launched with full page advertisement.
Interesting to see developers trying all sorts to infuse the market with "upbeat" news...
Leasehold Botannia condominium project at West Coast fully sold
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 May 2009 2051 hrs (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/432654/1/.html)
*report never say took them how long to achieve this* :confused:
15 out of 40 units at Martin Place Residences sold
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 May 2009 2118 hrs (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/432658/1/.html)
*15 out of 40 out of 302 units blah...blah...blah... so are we suppose to pop the champagne now???*:confused:
Have you read Goldman Sachs report (go to the WFW thread and look for it)? I think your comment is a bit unfair to them.
I have not looked at GS report and did I mention GS? What is it with you and your accusations?
Just looking at their assumptions, are they saying that the 11500 units withdrawn makes the supply look less worrying?
But I think they are forgetting that the enbloc owners are renting right now. Not everyone can squat with in-laws or are the enbloc units not primary homes of the owner?
What happens when renters vacate their rental units and start buying? The previous rented unit is now vacant although there is now 1 more home purchase recorded. It is zero sum when that happens.
I'd be happier if the government opens the immigration spigot wider and this adds to the total number of family units.
that's true. its just that may sales is likely to be very good so i think at least 1000 units sold in may is possible. as for the rest of the year, i guess the buying will cool off but around 400 units a month seems ok if it comes from a good mix of all the CCR, RCR and OCR on a monthly basis. Don't forget, monkey sized unit also 1 unit, penthouse also 1 unit and many monkey units and/or a certain Caspian like project combined probably can sustain that 400 units a month on average i guess.
You got me there. With some developers slashing units into 2, the 7500 may be reached, then I will not feel so bullish if the 7500 is breached.
But before you blame me for moving the goalpost, this is a new tactic that more developers seem to be using in order to preserve psf.
Then the same momentum has to continue for 2010 as well before that translate to a stampede?:D
40 units project are easy to sell and makes for good advertising when the papers yell "FULLY SOLD".
Projects priced correctly will sell.
I think prices may just bobble (+/- 10% to 15%) along for the next 2-3 years as the market soaks up the supply.
Pretty much like how the HDB's oversupply experience where prices did not really go anywhere from 2000-2005.
Just pray that the local banks do not retrench. If the economy does not turn, there is a limit to all the cost savings that the various creative measures can muster sans retrenchment.
There's still a lot of clean up required with the US. Like trying to ensure GM' euthanasia rather than slaughter.
There is a danger that the supposed improved housing sales may get stymied by the rates increase lately.
AIG hasn't really unwound all their toxic products yet.
Banks in Europe are not doing that well either. Now Opel needs to be bailed with Germany's $$$.
Green shoots? Sporadic maybe.
http://hottrendswatch.blogspot.com/
Another one convinced that the looming supply is going to weigh on price.
Moving the goal post or the urinal bowl, your shoot at forcast is off the mark.
At the rate its going, 7500 will be reached by Oct.
You got me there. With some developers slashing units into 2, the 7500 may be reached, then I will not feel so bullish if the 7500 is breached.
But before you blame me for moving the goalpost, this is a new tactic that more developers seem to be using in order to preserve psf.
Then the same momentum has to continue for 2010 as well before that translate to a stampede?:D
bargain hunter
30-05-09, 11:28
I think its more likely that we get a stampede now and maybe over next few months and then things cool off later this year and into 2010.
You got me there. With some developers slashing units into 2, the 7500 may be reached, then I will not feel so bullish if the 7500 is breached.
But before you blame me for moving the goalpost, this is a new tactic that more developers seem to be using in order to preserve psf.
Then the same momentum has to continue for 2010 as well before that translate to a stampede?:D
Visited Tresalveo near Marymount MRT... i think they managed to sell close to 100 units in May compared to 2 units last month. Price around 950psf, even higher than The Arte.
The Mezzo also managed to sell off 50/60 units this month, compared to 10 units last month ... looks like this month new home sales figure is going to exceed last month.
Visited Tresalveo near Marymount MRT... i think they managed to sell close to 100 units in May compared to 2 units last month. Price around 950psf, even higher than The Arte.
The Mezzo also managed to sell off 50/60 units this month, compared to 10 units last month ... looks like this month new home sales figure is going to exceed last month.
Like you, I'm extremely bullish about property. I bought Alexis (1 unit) and Tresalveo (2 units). Which condos did you buy?
Regulators
30-05-09, 23:54
how much did you pay for alexis?
Like you, I'm extremely bullish about property. I bought Alexis (1 unit) and Tresalveo (2 units). Which condos did you buy?
i hear that indonesians are coming to buy with cash.
rupiah strengthened. they moving the funds here because prices are still lower than 2008. and property agents and bankers very busy. same for insurance agents. arrrgh..i didnt manage to ride the high wave.
and banks are more easy going now. aiyahhh..
Regulators
31-05-09, 02:48
i dont think rich indons keep rupiah as their main currency....
i hear that indonesians are coming to buy with cash.
rupiah strengthened. they moving the funds here because prices are still lower than 2008. and property agents and bankers very busy. same for insurance agents. arrrgh..i didnt manage to ride the high wave.
and banks are more easy going now. aiyahhh..
Moving the goal post or the urinal bowl, your shoot at forcast is off the mark.
At the rate its going, 7500 will be reached by Oct.
That is not my forecast. Just that if the total units sold this year exceeds 7500, I take it that the mkt is getting bullish.
The mkt has to consistently clear this number of units for the next 4 years to make a decent dent in the supply.
i dont think rich indons keep rupiah as their main currency....
:p
Whoops....
I think its more likely that we get a stampede now and maybe over next few months and then things cool off later this year and into 2010.
From now to end 2010 will be interesting...
bargain hunter
31-05-09, 07:36
Indeed, not only do the rich Indos not keep their main currency as Rupiah, they love Singapore and feel safer with their money parked here (no matter in what other currency) than kept in Indonesia. They also love property, something which they can fly in and touch whenever they feel like it. As businessmen, they would still take up loans (at lower LTV) even if they have the ability to buy the whole units in cash so the combination you mentioned below is very conducive for them. They are also willing to accept 3 to 4% rental yield for their investments because it covers the interest (for now and because of their low LTV) and still has a remaining yield equivalent or more than fixed deposit.
i hear that indonesians are coming to buy with cash.
rupiah strengthened. they moving the funds here because prices are still lower than 2008. and property agents and bankers very busy. same for insurance agents. arrrgh..i didnt manage to ride the high wave.
and banks are more easy going now. aiyahhh..
If the high end is going to be sluggish, whither the mid tier and mass mkt?
I have been checking prices of HDB 4-5 room, prices have come off about 3% on average for the outlying areas. It will not crash but the the HDB upgrader spigot will be closing soon.
The stock mkt effect only comes into the equation when there is a general air of speculative interest in the air.
I been checking hdb too, and noticed prices are coming down, with some selling under valuation.
but private condo seems to be bullish currently for May.
Interesting to see developers trying all sorts to infuse the market with "upbeat" news...
Leasehold Botannia condominium project at West Coast fully sold
By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 May 2009 2051 hrs (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/432654/1/.html)
*report never say took them how long to achieve this* :confused:
they never put "FINALLY" since 2007? ahahaha.... I wonder the next HLG devt they are going to launch soon take how long? Another 2 years? And dun forget when they launch Botannia it was supposed to be blooming time for property...so maybe this round will take 3 years? :p
I been checking hdb too, and noticed prices are coming down, with some selling under valuation.
but private condo seems to be bullish currently for May.
That's because due to the quiet market in pte property. But now with the recent stir. Try again those units that are asking below valuation. I heard that nowadays, the cases of seller withdrawing and uping their asking prices are very frequent.
I been checking hdb too, and noticed prices are coming down, with some selling under valuation.
but private condo seems to be bullish currently for May.
That's because HDB owners are rushing to sell their flats to cheong private properties...
And even if they are selling under valuation, they are still smiling (instead of laughing) to the bank especially for those 1st owners that bought direct from HDB... chances are they would have already fully paid up their loan so they can plonk their entire sales proceed to fund their new private property purchase (which will easily make up at least for 20% ~ 40% of the purchase price).
Dun understand why some ppl can be so optimistic and bullish when every day we read bleak reports...
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/20090603/tap-565-nwc-recommends-concerted-efforts-231650b.html
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20090604/tbs-autos-dealers-7318940.html
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090603/tts-health-flu-who-c1b2fc3.html
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20090603/tbs-aig-taiwan-b8dd11d.html
The only way to explain is that people were sitting on piles of cash and with bank's offering close to zero returns on deposits, rather than putting it in under their pillows at home, they plonk their money into the market little by little to test the market until it snowballed into the current "rally" in the past 4~6mths.
And these folks are feeling quite pleased with themselves because some of them managed to get pretty good returns indeed.... And optimism will easily breed into exuberence whenever there is money to be made.
On a separate note, HDB prices proved to be a lot more resilient despite the downturn. Given that majority of our population are living in HDB flats, that means quite a lot of people are sitting on capital appreciation which shows no sign of being eroded. Coupled with the odd pricing strategy by DBSS developers for new flats and the fall in private property prices, a lot of HDB upgraders just move en masse to private housing stimulating demand in the mass condo sector.
Of course the broad macroeconomic data is still telling us that the whole economy is far from recovery, but currently those that are riding the blue wave is enjoying the ride thus far. History tells us that w/o strong fundamentals, the blue wave will come crashing down in time to come drowning a lot of people in it (excatly like what happened with sub-prime) but then again, we humans tend to have very short-term memories isn't it? Plus there is always the old adage where speculators will always say, "I will get out the moment I make money"... :spliff2:
I like the way you explained the whole situation, sounds logical. Thank you. :)
u r welcome! :cheers1:
Frankly speaking, even if this current blue wave crashes, another one will quickly build up in it's wake because there are still a lot of people out there with money in the pockets waiting on the sidelines rushing to pick up "bargains" (just look at the "Rivergate 1kpsf" thread... )
Regulators
04-06-09, 14:34
it is simple, hdb dwellers are cashing out on their hdb properties, make some profit from hdb and dump all into a pte pty and take advantage of falling pte pty pxs. if you ask these hdb people to hold on to their hdb flats and buy another pte pty, how many actually can afford....
it is simple, hdb dwellers are cashing out on their hdb properties, make some profit from hdb and dump all into a pte pty and take advantage of falling pte pty pxs. if you ask these hdb people to hold on to their hdb flats and buy another pte pty, how many actually can afford....
Hehe... Actually, my advise to most people is not to sell HDB and buy private. But to rent out HDB and buy private. The rental return for doing that is easily above 10% if you bought your HDB before 2005. The rental is good enough to help you sevice your pte pty.
it is simple, hdb dwellers are cashing out on their hdb properties, make some profit from hdb and dump all into a pte pty and take advantage of falling pte pty pxs. if you ask these hdb people to hold on to their hdb flats and buy another pte pty, how many actually can afford....
There are probably a fraction that could still have the funds to place the 20% down for a sub 1mill condo w/o having the sell their HDB flats... but issue is whether are they willing to stretch themselves or keep the cash for "rainy days". These are the guys that are contributing to the showroom traffic to snap up those smaller units costing around 600k ~ 700k probably with the intent to rent it out to cover the monthly installment.
Agree with both on the separate points mentioned: (i) rental yield is better for HDB - well qualified for those hdb bot before 05; (ii) showflat traffic from this bunch of pp who can afford holding on to hdb & eyeing pte properties of tt price range ........... since it's your entitlement as citizen to buy new hdb flats, why not take it, prolong it, then capitalize on it .. ;)
I think this situation is going to last for a while with stable price as we have 270k 5-room HDBs, even just 5% decides to take the plunge, that translates to 13,500 units of mass market condos. This upgrading trend will only stop when the gap of HDB resale price and mass market condo widens again. I don't think HDB resale price will come down very quickly given limited supplies of reasonably priced new HDB flats in mature estates (DBSS flats = expensive, pushing more 1st timers to buy resale flats) and increased number of PR HDB buyers in recent years. Even if there is another crisis, buying activities will only be temporarily suspended but will continue as long as sentiment improves. On the other hand, property developers are unlikely to raise the price too much for mass market condo as HDB upgraders are not price elastic. What we are seeing now, is actually a continuation of 2007 upgrading activities.
I think this situation is going to last for a while with stable price as we have 270k 5-room HDBs, even just 5% decides to take the plunge, that translates to 13,500 units of mass market condos. This upgrading trend will only stop when the gap of HDB resale price and mass market condo widens again. I don't think HDB resale price will come down very quickly given limited supplies of reasonably priced new HDB flats in mature estates (DBSS flats = expensive, pushing more 1st timers to buy resale flats) and increased number of PR HDB buyers in recent years. Even if there is another crisis, buying activities will only be temporarily suspended but will continue as long as sentiment improves. On the other hand, property developers are unlikely to raise the price too much for mass market condo as HDB upgraders are not price elastic. What we are seeing now, is actually a continuation of 2007 upgrading activities.
so the mass market pricing should be 2007 level?
so the mass market pricing should be 2007 level?
I think so ... about Q1/Q2 2007 level, or about Q2/Q3 2000 level. Mass market condo is more affordable (relatively speaking) for HDB upgraders now compared to in 2007/2000 because resale HDB price is relatively higher.
3000-4000sf condo/penthouses going for under 13k rent a month in prime areas (D9) now. Bungalow rental also well down in prime areas (D10), asking also between 12-14k, for units that a few months ago asked 20k or more. People still think there is upside in property in Singapore or prices are fair...
3000-4000sf condo/penthouses going for under 13k rent a month in prime areas (D9) now. Bungalow rental also well down in prime areas (D10), asking also between 12-14k, for units that a few months ago asked 20k or more. People still think there is upside in property in Singapore or prices are fair...
Dun worry for them. In fact, this is good for the system. Flushing out the excess from the system. There will also be less competition later on when the marginal players have exhausted their bullets. The recent rally is not new, humans are greedy by nature. They never learn from mistakes and memeory is short. Always want short cut to profits.
I think this situation is going to last for a while with stable price as we have 270k 5-room HDBs, even just 5% decides to take the plunge, that translates to 13,500 units of mass market condos. This upgrading trend will only stop when the gap of HDB resale price and mass market condo widens again. I don't think HDB resale price will come down very quickly given limited supplies of reasonably priced new HDB flats in mature estates (DBSS flats = expensive, pushing more 1st timers to buy resale flats) and increased number of PR HDB buyers in recent years. Even if there is another crisis, buying activities will only be temporarily suspended but will continue as long as sentiment improves. On the other hand, property developers are unlikely to raise the price too much for mass market condo as HDB upgraders are not price elastic. What we are seeing now, is actually a continuation of 2007 upgrading activities.
I beg to differ. 5% taking the punge of selling their 5-rooms flat do not translate to 13,500 units of mass market condos. This is too surface and rely too much on your own assumption that the strong alignment between resale HDB & mass market condo is there.
My friend, I have handed out enough utility vouchers to tell you that most of the peoples selling their 5 rooms is due to some hard times going down there, and not upgrading to condo. And for the dollar and other reasons, it range from owning loan shark, over commit on their loan amount and could not service their loan after recieving the last letter from HDB, could not secure a private loan after HDB no longer want to give them the CPF low rate, could stay with kids to take care of their grandchild while taking some cash for retirement, need subsidies badly, kids pressuring their parent to sell, down grading to 3rms after kids married out or simply want to enjoy their retirement, etc, etc.
Kiat, I have been wanted to explain this to you for a while. Selling a 5-rooms HDB, unfortunately, do not equal to buying a mass condo on the other end. It the pink note that just drop into their letter box threatening to cut their meter their main concern now and not your mass-market condo upgrading.
Again, by all means I would love to see these coming along with a strong per capital for our fellow 85% Singaporean still staying in HDB and joining us in this wonderful forum talking about private condominum with you & me. How far are we from there?
Hi apple3, about the 5% of 270k 5-room HDB assumption, that is not my own opinion but quote from Goldman Sach report about SG property stocks:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=660&d=1242136813
Of course they may be right, may be wrong. At least the report is worth reading and sound logical to me.
Anyway, "property guru" just became Google Hot Trend number 1 search keyword ... now I am bit worried :D
Well, they may be RIGHT (if their number crunching plus analysis allow them to forecast in the right direction) .... or they may be WRONG (if these analysts are the very people who do not know wat's happening on the ground, only whole day sit their butts in office forecasting forecasting ...:scared-2:).
Hi apple3, about the 5% of 270k 5-room HDB assumption, that is not my own opinion but quote from Goldman Sach report about SG property stocks:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=660&d=1242136813
Of course they may be right, may be wrong. At least the report is worth reading and sound logical to me.
Anyway, "property guru" just became Google Hot Trend number 1 search keyword ... now I am bit worried :D
On a vehicle analogy;
The report are talking about the brief spec of a car, capacity, coe, parf, etc.
I'm talking about the affordability, driving license, demerit points, etc.
Hi apple3, about the 5% of 270k 5-room HDB assumption, that is not my own opinion but quote from Goldman Sach report about SG property stocks:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=660&d=1242136813
I'm surprised such analysis could come from GS:
On our estimates, the average home equity of households in owner-occupied HDB flats is S$190,000 or 2.3X annual household incomes. For 5-bedroom or bigger flats, the predominant upgrader pool, the average home equity is almost 20% higher than the average HDB home owner at S$230,000. To put this into perspective, this equity covers about 30%-35% of the purchase price of a mass-end apartment, and is more than sufficient as a down-payment plus surplus. If only a small portion of the 270,000 units of 5-bedroom or larger HDB home owners decides to upgrade, we expect that the potential unsold supply—some 42,387 unsold units to come onstream in (2009-2013E)—would be gradually absorbed. The number of 5-bedroom or larger flats is six times the total unsold supply in the private market.
If, and a big IF, there is such "home equity", why didn't this group of potential upgraders come in to prop up the property market during 2002-2006 or during the Asian Financial Crisis when prices are obviously much lower in relation to the then "home equity" at the time.
Obviously, in order to entice such upgraders (if they exist), prices must come down to a level that's attractive enough to them.
GS also failed to give an estimated breakdown by age groups of such potential upgraders (again if they exist).
I'm not GS, but I don't think many of these HDB dwellers are young.
The young HDB owners are too young to have accumulated the "home equity" and the old ones are too old...
How many of the old ones can find banks to lend them the other 65%-70% to pay for their condo?
I'm surprised such analysis could come from GS:
If, and a big IF, there is such "home equity", why didn't this group of potential upgraders come in to prop up the property market during 2002-2006 or during the Asian Financial Crisis when prices are obviously much lower in relation to the then "home equity" at the time.
I am not GS so I need some help here...... plus i was only a freshie out of school in 1997 but as I looked at the folks around me, there were lots of unhappy faces where ever I go especially those uncle and aunties that paid $700k for HDB flats before the crash.... with so many HDB owners licking their wounds... where got mood to upgrade? Besides, people are really cautious in buying resale having learnt their lesson. And this have yet to account for those uncle and aunties that lost their fortunes in the stock market, clob shares etc....
Then we fast forward to 2002 - 2006.... We just had Sept 11 and the whole world was getting to know Osama and then come loads of mergers and consolidation especially in the Financial Sector and lots of jobs were shed and new grads could hardly find any jobs. Then when some stability kicked in, SARS came in to remind us that we are not in the clear. Plus HDB was bleeding cause they built too many flats and there was a supply glut.... HDB can't even pay their contractors on time and a lot of them just went bust. So with loads of new flats to choose from, the HDB resale market isn't all that rosy either. More bad news for those dudes that paid a premium for resale flats pre-1997. This was when HDB finally bit the bullet and introduced the BTO policy....
Now fast fast fast forward to present day..... the reality is that HDB's BTO policy is so darn successful that there aren't enough new flats to go around. And this pushing a lot of new startup families into the resale market. Anyone that bought a flat from 1997 onwards have seen their flats appreciate in value. And lot of these flats would have been fully paid up especially for middle income families with dual incomes earners servicing the loan.
Prices have corrected slightly with the sub-prime issue but still the capital gains aren't eroded. And there is no sign of it eroding away because demand is so darn strong that buyers even willing to swallow the exhorbitant DBSS prices. Coupled with the sharp fall in the private property prices, hence the impetus for HDB owners to realise their condo dreams.
Of course the above is purely my observation and not supported with any empirical data. But if I were answer why such upgrading activity wasn't present in 1997 or between 2002-2006, the above would have been my reply. I welcome any refinement or correction to my above observation. Cheers! :spliff:
I think many are looking at the wrong indicators, and thus have erroneous conclusions.
Baltic Dry, RCI, all rising fast. Yes, these are inflation indicators, and with TBond rates rising the way they are, inflation is a clear and present danger. It's not a matter of if, but rather when. Precious metals and commodities are inflation hedges, but NOT property.
Just as with everything, there are market makers and there are the me-toos. 05-07 boom was largely driven by the influx of foreign buyers - they drove up prices of Tier-1 properties, and only from 07 did it start trickling down to Tier-2 and mass market properties. Mass market values ran up not because the foreigners were buying them in droves, but because the locals saw what was happening in Tier-1, wanted to get into the game, and started bidding against one another upwards.
The current run up is driven by locals that have missed the boat previously, see a 'discount' off 2007 highs, and thus see it as an entry point to get into the game. This is largely supported by an artificial and apparent prop of HDB values by the powers that be - whether through the ridiculous DBSS scheme or arbitrarily setting the still high prices of new flats in SK/PNGL. And because the middle class here are still largely gainfully employed for now, they still think things are still status quo.
You see this nonsense in last week's SEC report on insider sales. More insiders are selling these past two months than ever before. If the economy is really turning around, why are CEOs and directors divesting their own companies like there's a plague? They are selling to the me-toos who 'seem' to have missed the recent run up, believing in central bank PR bullshit, manipulated numbers, and at times, a manipulated market.
The Tier-1 market is still lacklustre. Foreigners are still not buying, and they are definitely not renting as much. (even my part time maid is asking me for referral lobang as 2/3 of her ang moh bosses have left for home and her agency ain't assigning new ones as there's an oversupply of part time maids now).
Thus today's property market is distinctly cut into two paths. One driven by the me-toos who are afraid of missing the boat, driving prices up based on their activities and not externalities. And one driven by the Tier-1s who are buying on location and potential - but it's still far far fewer than the number the me-toos are buying up as if in a frenzy. Mass market is at most 10-15% down from 2007 highs. Tier-1s are still about 35-40% off highs.
Will the market fall end 09? i don't know - very possible, but i don't know. What i do know is that buy a mass market today and you are paying a 40% premium over 2005 prices at least. why people are willing to pay close to $1m for some suburban heartland area i really don't know.
So if you backside itchy and ngeh ngeh want to buy a property for whatever reason, please do some research, and look for properties that have huge potential and where the govt has announced massive development and infrastructure builds for the area. that way if shtf you lose less
my 2 cents.
I think many are looking at the wrong indicators, and thus have erroneous conclusions.
Baltic Dry, RCI, all rising fast. Yes, these are inflation indicators, and with TBond rates rising the way they are, inflation is a clear and present danger. It's not a matter of if, but rather when. Precious metals and commodities are inflation hedges, but NOT property.
my 2 cents.
Property is still a good hedge against inflation in Singapore. This is not my own conclusion but according to research from NUS. You can check what happen to property prices in Singapore during the 1st and 2nd oil shock back in 1973/74 and 1980/81. But I agree with you that metal & commodities are BETTER but not every Singaporean knows how to trade that.
Biz Times:
HDB upgraders have their say in muted market
They comprised more than half of those who bought private homes in Q1
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The first quarter of this year saw a major trend reversal. HDB upgraders bought more private homes than those already living in private properties.
Fifty-six per cent of caveats for private home purchases in Q1 were lodged by buyers with HDB addresses, up from a 43 per cent share in the previous quarter. The last time this figure breached 50 per cent was in Q3 2002, when it was 52 per cent.
Market watchers note that the pick-up in HDB upgraders’ share in Q1 came amidst the launch of mass-market projects like Caspian near Jurong Lake and Double Bay Residences in Simei as well as the relaunch of The Quartz in Buangkok. Such entry-level 99-year leasehold condos cater to HDB upgraders.
Property consultancy DTZ highlighted this trend in its analysis of caveats from URA Realis as at May 29. The reason behind this could be the pent-up demand from this segment of buyers who had been priced out of the private residential property market during the bull run in 2007.
Another important factor was the narrowing price gap between public and private homes, which resulted in private properties becoming increasingly within reach of HDB upgraders. ‘With cash proceeds from the sale of existing HDB flats, the upgrader needs to borrow only about 50-60 per cent of the value of the new private property,’ estimates DTZ’s head of SEA research Chua Chor Hoon.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow also credited the rise in proportion of HDB upgraders to developers offering a combination of attractive pricing and interest absorption schemes (IAS) for projects. ‘IAS helps tide these buyers until their new condo is completed and when they can sell their existing HDB flat,’ he explained.
‘At Double Bay, which we marketed, we saw many buyers in their 40s currently living in HDB flats nearby,’ Mr Ow added.
DTZ’s analysis showed that the highest proportion of buying (in URA Realis’s 14-year caveats database) by HDB upgraders was in Q2 2002, at 81 per cent.
Generally, HDB upgraders’ share of private home purchases tends to be higher when private residential prices are falling and come within their reach. And when property prices are shooting up, their share of purchases ebbs.
During the 1998 Asian Crisis, for instance, HDB upgraders’ share hovered between 51 and 65 per cent per quarter, against a much lower share of 33-40 per cent in 1995 when prices were spiralling up.
Again, during the recent property bull run in 2007, their share was pretty low at 21-23 per cent, before starting to rise again last year when the property slump began.
DTZ also compared some buying preferences of HDB dwellers and private property owners who bought private homes in Q1. Some 88 per cent of total purchases by those with HDB addresses were under $1 million. In contrast, 40 per cent of buyers with private addresses invested in homes that cost $1 million and above. HDB upgraders also bought mostly smaller apartments.
Some 92 per cent of private homes that HDB dwellers bought in Q1 were outside prime districts 9, 10 and 11. And for those HDB dwellers who did pick up private properties in prime districts, 68 per cent were for units below 1,000 sq ft. Based on caveats lodged in Q1, the most popular projects for those with HDB addresses include The Caspian, The Quartz, Alexis and Double Bay Residences.
HDB dwellers accounted for 57 per cent of the total 227 caveats lodged for Alexis and for 75 per cent of the total 458 caveats for Caspian.
DTZ’s Ms Chua reckons HDB dwellers’ share of private home purchases may ease in Q2, when sales activity permeated to the mid/upper-mid segments where more buyers have private addresses.
Knight Frank’s Mr Ow said the proportion of HDB upgrader buying will vary depending on the profile of property launches or relaunches in the months ahead.
Yes, to all doubters here, please do not underestimate the amount of pent-up home equity coming from HDB dwellers.
Unlike in stocks, where you can take calculated risks and invest in tranches on the way down, in property most people only have 1 shot and they have to time their entry right.
These HDB upgraders have shrewdly avoided the market run-up in the previous years and are now carefully timing their entry to buy the mass market condos. I honestly think they got their timing right.
In other words, this time it's really different.
I am not GS so I need some help here...... plus i was only a freshie out of school in 1997 but as I looked at the folks around me, there were lots of unhappy faces where ever I go especially those uncle and aunties that paid $700k for HDB flats before the crash.... with so many HDB owners licking their wounds... where got mood to upgrade? Besides, people are really cautious in buying resale having learnt their lesson. And this have yet to account for those uncle and aunties that lost their fortunes in the stock market, clob shares etc....
Then we fast forward to 2002 - 2006.... We just had Sept 11 and the whole world was getting to know Osama and then come loads of mergers and consolidation especially in the Financial Sector and lots of jobs were shed and new grads could hardly find any jobs. Then when some stability kicked in, SARS came in to remind us that we are not in the clear. Plus HDB was bleeding cause they built too many flats and there was a supply glut.... HDB can't even pay their contractors on time and a lot of them just went bust. So with loads of new flats to choose from, the HDB resale market isn't all that rosy either. More bad news for those dudes that paid a premium for resale flats pre-1997. This was when HDB finally bit the bullet and introduced the BTO policy....
Now fast fast fast forward to present day..... the reality is that HDB's BTO policy is so darn successful that there aren't enough new flats to go around. And this pushing a lot of new startup families into the resale market. Anyone that bought a flat from 1997 onwards have seen their flats appreciate in value. And lot of these flats would have been fully paid up especially for middle income families with dual incomes earners servicing the loan.
Prices have corrected slightly with the sub-prime issue but still the capital gains aren't eroded. And there is no sign of it eroding away because demand is so darn strong that buyers even willing to swallow the exhorbitant DBSS prices. Coupled with the sharp fall in the private property prices, hence the impetus for HDB owners to realise their condo dreams.
Of course the above is purely my observation and not supported with any empirical data. But if I were answer why such upgrading activity wasn't present in 1997 or between 2002-2006, the above would have been my reply. I welcome any refinement or correction to my above observation. Cheers! :spliff:
Property will perform well in inflationary environment. The spike in 1980/81 is due to 2nd oil shock.
"Official" CPI in Singapore:
Year 2000 97.2
Year 2008 110.3
Yes, to all doubters here, please do not underestimate the amount of pent-up home equity coming from HDB dwellers.
Unlike in stocks, where you can take calculated risks and invest in tranches on the way down, in property most people only have 1 shot and they have to time their entry right.
These HDB upgraders have shrewdly avoided the market run-up in the previous years and are now carefully timing their entry to buy the mass market condos. I honestly think they got their timing right.
In other words, this time it's really different.
Yes you're prob right. HDB upgraders is a force to reckon with. But are they buying right? Missing the boat and buying blindly seems to be in play here. They are buying stories of 'close to MRT'; minutes to Orchard; fringe of city; 'be part of the Core Central Region!' etc etc. Almost everywhere in Singapore by 2013 will be 'close to MRT', and everywhere is minutes to town.
Paying $800psf for the chu kangs and $900-1000psf for balestier/woodleigh/sm is irresponsible use of hard earned equity.
Property is still a good hedge against inflation in Singapore. This is not my own conclusion but according to research from NUS. You can check what happen to property prices in Singapore during the 1st and 2nd oil shock back in 1973/74 and 1980/81. But I agree with you that metal & commodities are BETTER but not every Singaporean knows how to trade that.
I do agree that property in the long run is a good hedge against inflation. If you can afford the 20% downpayment, why not?
E.g. D15's freehold studio appartment is about $460k. Even if the price continue to drop, how much it can drop? Almost impossible to drop to $350k.
Buy and rent out. People now asking for abt $2000 per mth rental. You just ask for $1500, sure got taker. $1,500 sld be enough for monthly installment and maintenance fee. Even 10 yrs later, you sell back at the same price as you bought, you are still gaining.
No need wait for the bottom, you may not see it. E.g. During the recent stock run-up, my friend was waiting for the stock market to bottom at STI 1200. Wait and wait and in the end, he enter the market at about STI 2200 points.
The last bottom in end 2001 or 2002, STI is abt 1200. Since this recession is worst than 2001, why the stock market bottom at 1400 instead of 1200? So why should the property bottom at pre-2005 prices?
I felt that if you really wanted to invest in a property, now should be a good time. If property prices drop, just hang on. Or you want to enter when the property prices is much higher like my friend who wait until STI 1200 is really not achieveable then he entered at STI 2200?
To each his own.
Property will perform well in inflationary environment. The spike in 1980/81 is due to 2nd oil shock.
thanks jk, let me clarify. Yes in normal inflation and even mild inflation, property may do well. But what we are fearing is mass inflation or even hyperinflation. When the dollar collapses and triggers this off, property as an immovable store of value does not serve as wealth.
in mild inflation, you have the sense that things are getting more expensive, but you won't really feel it. In mass, things are worse, and you start buying only things you really need. in hyper, everyone's fxed unless you own a goldmine.
mass and hyperinflation signals the breakdown of the division of labor, and many market practices that we are used to. the psychological effect is almost similar to deflation. In zimbabwe, a loaf of bread costs 0.1g of gold, and that's all that they are accepting. everyone will be more concerned about putting food on the table than 'close to MRT', 'next to CCR', 'my condo guard is Chinese, yours is bahyee'.
the only time one really benefits from mass or hyper is your $1m loan, if on fixed interest, can prob be paid off with a single gold coin by then. The rest of your gold coins will be used to barter for daily necessities and food, assuming your neighbours don't find out and kill you for it.
Yes, to all doubters here, please do not underestimate the amount of pent-up home equity coming from HDB dwellers.
Unlike in stocks, where you can take calculated risks and invest in tranches on the way down, in property most people only have 1 shot and they have to time their entry right.
These HDB upgraders have shrewdly avoided the market run-up in the previous years and are now carefully timing their entry to buy the mass market condos. I honestly think they got their timing right.
In other words, this time it's really different.
I think we must be very careful here because there are segments of HDB dwellers that are indeed struggling to make ends meet, getting red bills stuffed in their letter boxes and having red paint and O$P$ signs splashed all over their doors and corridor...
But there are also a segment of HDB dwellers with dual incomes that have very low debt obligations, savings in the bank, sitting on capital appreciation and no immediate threat of losing their jobs. In fact if you put aside the HDB address, a lot of these folks have the same profiles as private property owners in terms of their education level, career prospects, outlook towards life etc... And these are the guys that are upgrading.
Yes you're prob right. HDB upgraders is a force to reckon with. But are they buying right? Missing the boat and buying blindly seems to be in play here. They are buying stories of 'close to MRT'; minutes to Orchard; fringe of city; 'be part of the Core Central Region!' etc etc. Almost everywhere in Singapore by 2013 will be 'close to MRT', and everywhere is minutes to town.
Paying $800psf for the chu kangs and $900-1000psf for balestier/woodleigh/sm is irresponsible use of hard earned equity.
If paying $900-1000psf for a condo in balestier is irresponsible, then paying $700k for a DBSS flat would probably be deemed as criminal.... :D
Mr gfoo is worried about hyperinflation like Dr Doom. He may be right, may be I should increase my debt level to millions :cheers6:b4 hyperinflation wipe me off.
The greater of two evils
May 7th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Inflation is bad, but deflation is worse
MERLE HAZARD, an unusually satirical country and western crooner, has captured monetary confusion better than anyone else. “Inflation or deflation,” he warbles, “tell me if you can: will we become Zimbabwe or will we be Japan?”
How do you guard against both the deflationary forces of America’s worst recession since the 1930s and the vigorous response of the Federal Reserve, which has in effect cut interest rates to zero and rapidly expanded its balance-sheet? On May 4th Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics, gave warning that Japan-style deflation loomed, even as Allan Meltzer, an eminent Fed historian, foresaw a repeat of 1970s inflation—both on the same page of the New York Times.
There is something to both fears. But inflation is distant and containable, while deflation is at hand and pernicious.
Dragged down by debt
Fears about deflation do not rest on the 0.4% decline in American consumer prices in the year to March. Although this is the first such annual decline since 1955, it is the transitory result of a plunge in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation is 1.8%. Rather, the worry is of persistent price declines that characterise true deflation. With unemployment nearing 9%, economic output is further below the economy’s potential than at any time since 1982. This gap is likely to widen. House prices are not part of America’s inflation index but their decline is forcing households to reduce debt (see article (http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13611284)), which could subdue economic growth for years. As workers compete for scarce jobs and firms underbid each other for sales, wages and prices will come under pressure.
So far, expectations of inflation remain stable: that sentiment is itself a welcome bulwark against deflation. But pay freezes and wage cuts may soon change people’s minds. In one poll, more than a third of respondents said they or someone in their household had suffered a cut in pay or hours. The employment-cost index rose by just 2.1% in the year to the first quarter, the least since records began in 1982. In 2003, during the last deflation scare, total pay grew by almost 4%.
Does this matter? If prices are falling because of advancing productivity, as at the end of the 19th century, it is a sign of progress, not economic collapse. Today, though, deflation is more likely to resemble the malign 1930s sort than that earlier benign variety, because demand is weak and households and firms are burdened by debt. In deflation the nominal value of debts remains fixed even as nominal wages, prices and profits fall. Real debt burdens therefore rise, causing borrowers to cut spending to service their debts or to default. That undermines the financial system and deepens the recession.
From 1929 to 1933 prices fell by 27%. This time central banks are on the case. In America, Britain, Japan and Switzerland they have pushed short-term interest rates to, or close to, zero and vastly expanded their balance-sheets by buying debt. It helps, too, that the world has abandoned the monetary straitjacket of the gold standard it wore in the 1930s.
Yet this anti-deflationary zeal is precisely what alarms people like Mr Meltzer. He worries that the price of seeing off deflation is that the Fed will be unable or unwilling to reverse itself in time to prevent a resurgence of inflation.
Fair enough, but inflation is easier to put right than deflation. A central bank can raise interest rates as high as it wants to suppress inflation, but it cannot cut nominal rates below zero. Deflation robs a central bank of its ability to stimulate spending using negative real interest rates. In the worst case, rising debts and defaults depress growth, poisoning the economy by deepening deflation and pressing real interest rates higher. Central banks that have lowered rates to nearly zero are now using unconventional, quantitative tools, but their efficacy is unproven. Given the choice, erring on the side of inflation would be less catastrophic than erring on the side of deflation.
That said, there is a legitimate concern that when the time comes to raise interest rates, the Fed may hold back because of political pressure or fear of fracturing financial markets. The Fed was too slow to raise interest rates after its deflation scare in 2003. Yet that is best addressed by strengthening the Fed. Barack Obama should nominate credible, independent people to the two vacant seats on the Federal Reserve Board, and bat away suggestions that the 12 reserve-bank presidents, who are not confirmed by Congress, lose their say in monetary policy. Congress should let the Fed issue its own debt, which would give it scope to tighten monetary policy without disorderly sales of the illiquid private debt it has taken on.
Affirming the Fed’s political independence and equipping it with better tools would help the central bank combat inflation when the time comes. It would also lessen the risk that it tightens prematurely just to demonstrate its resolve.
If paying $900-1000psf for a condo in balestier is irresponsible, then paying $700k for a DBSS flat would probably be deemed as criminal.... :D
lol, you're being nice. paying 700k for a dbss is moronic, bordering on being a retard
Mr gfoo is worried about hyperinflation like Dr Doom. He may be right, may be I should increase my debt level to millions :cheers6:b4 hyperinflation wipe me off.
aiyah, for every deflationary article there is out there, there is another on inflation. this debate will never end lah.
but i think the message we should be getting across is - if you want to buy now, by all means, but please buy right.
Don't bring a badminton racquet to a tennis court simply because tennis is the 'in-thing' but one can't afford a tennis racquet.
I think we must be very careful here because there are segments of HDB dwellers that are indeed struggling to make ends meet, getting red bills stuffed in their letter boxes and having red paint and O$P$ signs splashed all over their doors and corridor...
But there are also a segment of HDB dwellers with dual incomes that have very low debt obligations, savings in the bank, sitting on capital appreciation and no immediate threat of losing their jobs. In fact if you put aside the HDB address, a lot of these folks have the same profiles as private property owners in terms of their education level, career prospects, outlook towards life etc... And these are the guys that are upgrading.
Quite rite to qualify in this manner ... not sure though how GS came up with that magic indication 5% .... guestimate?
Maybe when analysts look at numbers, they try to justify the current trends that we are witnessing, & somehow interprete the numbers in the way that sound "explainable"?
aiyah, for every deflationary article there is out there, there is another on inflation. this debate will never end lah.
but i think the message we should be getting across is - if you want to buy now, by all means, but please buy right.
Don't bring a badminton racquet to a tennis court simply because tennis is the 'in-thing' but one can't afford a tennis racquet.
Yah, how to play tennis with badminton racquet?? :D
I have read in other threads similar remarks about those xxx places selling at this price, so yyyy locations should sell like that or +/- .... it's pretty hard to define what's rite. What is affordable to oneself is of cuz important.
Quite rite to qualify in this manner ... not sure though how GS came up with that magic indication 5% .... guestimate?
Maybe when analysts look at numbers, they try to justify the current trends that we are witnessing, & somehow interprete the numbers in the way that sound "explainable"?
I know someone sold off Execute Apartment HDB in 2006 at a loss to buy condo. HDB sold at 435k, condo bought at 900k. Now, the same E.A. is 575k and the same condo is still about the same price.
Quite rite to qualify in this manner ... not sure though how GS came up with that magic indication 5% .... guestimate?
Maybe when analysts look at numbers, they try to justify the current trends that we are witnessing, & somehow interprete the numbers in the way that sound "explainable"?
Probably tried to retrofit the numbers to match current trends....
If paying $900-1000psf for a condo in balestier is irresponsible, then paying $700k for a DBSS flat would probably be deemed as criminal.... :D
or marymount at 900 to 1k psf lol
not criminals, just suckers :p
I know someone sold off Execute Apartment HDB in 2006 at a loss to buy condo. HDB sold at 435k, condo bought at 900k. Now, the same E.A. is 575k and the same condo is still about the same price.
Huh? So how does this translate into 5% ... or you now on a diff topic?
I'm trying to find the 5% in the Goldman report. The closest I found is this paragraph:
"...driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved. As take-up activity is maintained, we expect supply to be gradually drawn down, leading to a mild price increase of 5% in 2010E."
Jitkiat, where is the "5%" that you mentioned?
Quite rite to qualify in this manner ... not sure though how GS came up with that magic indication 5% .... guestimate?
Maybe when analysts look at numbers, they try to justify the current trends that we are witnessing, & somehow interprete the numbers in the way that sound "explainable"?
Don't know leh ... that number has been quoted a few times liao & I was searching high & low for the 270K too :D ... maybe it's derived from some calculations?
I can only see this on page 9 of the report:
"On our estimates, the average home equity of households in owner-occupied HDB flats is S$190,000 or 2.3X annual household incomes. For 5-bedroom or bigger flats, the predominant upgrader pool, the average home equity is almost 20% higher than the average HDB home owner at S$230,000. To put this into perspective, this equity covers
about 30%-35% of the purchase price of a mass-end apartment, and is more than sufficient as a down-payment plus surplus. If only a small portion of the 270,000 units of 5-bedroom or larger HDB home owners decides to upgrade, we expect that the potential unsold supply—some 42,387 unsold units to come onstream in (2009-2013E)—would be gradually absorbed. The number of 5-bedroom or larger flats is six times the total unsold supply in the private market."
....
I'm trying to find the 5% in the Goldman report. The closest I found is this paragraph:
"...driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved. As take-up activity is maintained, we expect supply to be gradually drawn down, leading to a mild price increase of 5% in 2010E."
Jitkiat, where is the "5%" that you mentioned?
Sorry, looks like is my mistake, here is the closest:
If only a small portion of the 270,000 units of 5-bedroom
or larger HDB home owners decides to upgrade, we expect that the potential unsold
supply—some 42,387 unsold units to come onstream in (2009-2013E)—would be gradually
absorbed. The number of 5-bedroom or larger flats is six times the total unsold supply in
the private market.
=> Basically, may be about 30% of 42,387 unsold units are mass market condos affordable to HDB upgraders, which translates to about 5% of 270k.
Don't know leh ... that number has been quoted a few times liao & I was searching high & low for the 270K too :D ... maybe it's derived from some calculations?
I can only see this on page 9 of the report:
"On our estimates, the average home equity of households in owner-occupied HDB flats is S$190,000 or 2.3X annual household incomes. For 5-bedroom or bigger flats, the predominant upgrader pool, the average home equity is almost 20% higher than the average HDB home owner at S$230,000. To put this into perspective, this equity covers
about 30%-35% of the purchase price of a mass-end apartment, and is more than sufficient as a down-payment plus surplus. If only a small portion of the 270,000 units of 5-bedroom or larger HDB home owners decides to upgrade, we expect that the potential unsold supply—some 42,387 unsold units to come onstream in (2009-2013E)—would be gradually absorbed. The number of 5-bedroom or larger flats is six times the total unsold supply in the private market."
....
At last Cheerful bring back the onus.
My focus is only to illustrate to Kiat that a 5rms hdb sold do not translate to a purchase on a mass market condo.
And as per usual, Kiat pour out property guru been the top hit, goldman, index, etc and before sunset, the 2 camps engage again. How beautiful, I simply love this forum.
PS: Kiat, don't need to pass the bucket to goldman, how many times have you been talking abt your re-sale HDB thingy you know better. But on the least you apologise for your mis-fire. :p
I love this forum too....
One topic can yield multitude of views with some bordering on extremism and others just plain ludricous and if you can navigate through the flame baits, there's actually quite a lot of info to be had.
The question is how much worth are these reports or analysis when only a couple of months ago that Citi, CS and a few other houses are predicting massive price decline......and now that when prices are up, they change their tune in favour of price appreciation now.
So again the question.........what's the worth in this kind of research?
Goldman called for a SuperSpike in oil last year to USD$200bp, yesterday, they are calling for USD$ 85.
In just slightly below one year, they have cut their target but a massive 56%. does it mean all the fundamentals, market factor changes so drastically........
Tony Blair
05-06-09, 13:36
All these analysts and fund houses are wayang party goers.Rongeng left and right depending on whims and fancies.What spews out from the anal -ysts you should treat like dung.
That's my point.......
If you happen to talk to fund managers nowadays, they will tell they are mildly bullish, blar blar blar......and then they will add "other the other hand.....blar blar blar...."
So at the end, completely no direction and no conviction..............and they expect you to place your money with them.
Luckily not all are like that but really need time to sieve out the good ones........
All these analysts and fund houses are wayang party goers.Rongeng left and right depending on whims and fancies.What spews out from the anal -ysts you should treat like dung.
Same goes for the rating agencies.... surprised that none of them got thrown into jail yet.... :hell-hath-no-fury:
At least they know that biz will not be as usual with Congress and European Regulators breathing down their neck........
Lets see how long will Warren Buffet hold on to his Moody's stake.
Remember one bro once mention that for an agent, they will tell you that "now is the best time becos its near to blar blar blar, the location is the best, the price is the best and the development is the best you can find in the market"
But dun really blame them as they are just doing their job to earn their dole, me just need to make sure me jump with eyes open.
Sorry, looks like is my mistake, here is the closest:
If only a small portion of the 270,000 units of 5-bedroom
or larger HDB home owners decides to upgrade, we expect that the potential unsold
supply—some 42,387 unsold units to come onstream in (2009-2013E)—would be gradually
absorbed. The number of 5-bedroom or larger flats is six times the total unsold supply in
the private market.
=> Basically, may be about 30% of 42,387 unsold units are mass market condos affordable to HDB upgraders, which translates to about 5% of 270k.
And what about the other 70%?? Absorbed by condo upgraders and landed upgraders?? :doh:
I know you're bullish. I'm bullish too.
But if you keep doing what you have been doing, you'll lose credibility (if you haven't already).
Moreover, we don't know how "seasoned" a property investor you are, but I can assure you there are some here who are definitely very seasoned, give very good analysis and they try to be fairly balanced in their views. At the least, they don't twist facts and misquote reports.
Do some of you feel that sometimes these analysts try to explain things only on hindsight (but with a slight bent in forecasting)?
Actually in real research hor ... I thot a researcher always begins with a hypothesis statement. If a hypothesis is proven to be otherwise because of the outcome of a research, you don't change the statement (coz that's not right/ethical in certain context). Actual findings should be reported, & a different conclusion may be drawn. But in property or financial kinda research, analysts just look at the trend, then try to find 'explanations' from the numbers ... they may hit the right note at times, but also may be drawing a not-so-fair predictions ...
This above may sound irrelevant ... not exactly related to those kinda churned out by research houses specialising in properties, stocks, etc. etc. ... but anyway, wat the heck ... this forum already got some irrelevant topics creeping in ... giving us all broader perspectives liao mah :D
And what about the other 70%?? :doh:
I know you're bullish. I'm bullish too.
But if you keep doing what you have been doing, you'll lose credibility (if you haven't already).
Moreover, we don't know how "seasoned" a property investor you are, but I can assure you there are some here who are definitely very seasoned, give very good analysis and they try to be fairly balanced in their views.
I am a seasoned stock trader but not a seasoned property investor but I believe both stock trading and property investment share common techniques and insight. Honestly speaking, so far I only read about mr apple3's analysis and balanced view and I have not seen anybody else contributed anything even close to the Goldman Sach report. Those who already bought will say "buy buy buy", those who are desperate to buy will just quote all kind of negative news to try to talk down the market. So, if you have better interpretation & analysis about the figures provided by GS report, do share in this forum.
Market is going up up up. Many people are in denial....but at some point they will jump into the bandwagon. While there is varying sentiment whether the economy will recover as a U or V, there is agreement that it will recover just soon. So does it make sense to wait or buy. Many buyers are adopting a buy now attitude and sellers are withdrawing their sale or raising their prices.
Market is going up up up. Many people are in denial....but at some point they will jump into the bandwagon. While there is varying sentiment whether the economy will recover as a U or V, there is agreement that it will recover just soon. So does it make sense to wait or buy. Many buyers are adopting a buy now attitude and sellers are withdrawing their sale or raising their prices.
I actually hope more sellers will withdraw their units, especially the better units so that I will be able to buy these better units at a lower price next year.
I maintain this rally is good as it will weed out competition.
Property is still a good hedge against inflation in Singapore. This is not my own conclusion but according to research from NUS. You can check what happen to property prices in Singapore during the 1st and 2nd oil shock back in 1973/74 and 1980/81. But I agree with you that metal & commodities are BETTER but not every Singaporean knows how to trade that.
Biz Times:
HDB upgraders have their say in muted market
They comprised more than half of those who bought private homes in Q1
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The first quarter of this year saw a major trend reversal. HDB upgraders bought more private homes than those already living in private properties.
Fifty-six per cent of caveats for private home purchases in Q1 were lodged by buyers with HDB addresses, up from a 43 per cent share in the previous quarter. The last time this figure breached 50 per cent was in Q3 2002, when it was 52 per cent.
Market watchers note that the pick-up in HDB upgraders’ share in Q1 came amidst the launch of mass-market projects like Caspian near Jurong Lake and Double Bay Residences in Simei as well as the relaunch of The Quartz in Buangkok. Such entry-level 99-year leasehold condos cater to HDB upgraders.
Property consultancy DTZ highlighted this trend in its analysis of caveats from URA Realis as at May 29. The reason behind this could be the pent-up demand from this segment of buyers who had been priced out of the private residential property market during the bull run in 2007.
Another important factor was the narrowing price gap between public and private homes, which resulted in private properties becoming increasingly within reach of HDB upgraders. ‘With cash proceeds from the sale of existing HDB flats, the upgrader needs to borrow only about 50-60 per cent of the value of the new private property,’ estimates DTZ’s head of SEA research Chua Chor Hoon.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow also credited the rise in proportion of HDB upgraders to developers offering a combination of attractive pricing and interest absorption schemes (IAS) for projects. ‘IAS helps tide these buyers until their new condo is completed and when they can sell their existing HDB flat,’ he explained.
‘At Double Bay, which we marketed, we saw many buyers in their 40s currently living in HDB flats nearby,’ Mr Ow added.
DTZ’s analysis showed that the highest proportion of buying (in URA Realis’s 14-year caveats database) by HDB upgraders was in Q2 2002, at 81 per cent.
Generally, HDB upgraders’ share of private home purchases tends to be higher when private residential prices are falling and come within their reach. And when property prices are shooting up, their share of purchases ebbs.
During the 1998 Asian Crisis, for instance, HDB upgraders’ share hovered between 51 and 65 per cent per quarter, against a much lower share of 33-40 per cent in 1995 when prices were spiralling up.
Again, during the recent property bull run in 2007, their share was pretty low at 21-23 per cent, before starting to rise again last year when the property slump began.
DTZ also compared some buying preferences of HDB dwellers and private property owners who bought private homes in Q1. Some 88 per cent of total purchases by those with HDB addresses were under $1 million. In contrast, 40 per cent of buyers with private addresses invested in homes that cost $1 million and above. HDB upgraders also bought mostly smaller apartments.
Some 92 per cent of private homes that HDB dwellers bought in Q1 were outside prime districts 9, 10 and 11. And for those HDB dwellers who did pick up private properties in prime districts, 68 per cent were for units below 1,000 sq ft. Based on caveats lodged in Q1, the most popular projects for those with HDB addresses include The Caspian, The Quartz, Alexis and Double Bay Residences.
HDB dwellers accounted for 57 per cent of the total 227 caveats lodged for Alexis and for 75 per cent of the total 458 caveats for Caspian.
DTZ’s Ms Chua reckons HDB dwellers’ share of private home purchases may ease in Q2, when sales activity permeated to the mid/upper-mid segments where more buyers have private addresses.
Knight Frank’s Mr Ow said the proportion of HDB upgrader buying will vary depending on the profile of property launches or relaunches in the months ahead.
BUt the real picture if you see the chart, overall property sales drop compared to the previous 3 years.... relying on HDB upgraders will not boost up property market
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2009-06-05/BT_IMAGES_HDB5A.jpg
I am a seasoned stock trader but not a seasoned property investor but I believe both stock trading and property investment share common techniques and insight. Honestly speaking, so far I only read about mr apple3's analysis and balanced view and I have not seen anybody else contributed anything even close to the Goldman Sach report. Those who already bought will say "buy buy buy", those who are desperate to buy will just quote all kind of negative news to try to talk down the market. So, if you have better interpretation & analysis about the figures provided by GS report, do share in this forum.
hmmm ... I voted 'bullish' rt at the beginning even before my first post in this thread ... don't think I will say "buy buy buy" leh. Likewise, I think another forumer (stanlingrad) got a unit waiting to TOP & shift in, but also nvr see him say "buy buy buy" leh ...
Thanks for your contributions ... your posts so far quite close to the GS report mah, since you quoted numbers from inside .. suppose anyone in this forum is entitled to his or her interpretation - & by that, it could mean someone's view on the mkt, ques on your post, etc.
:p
I actually hope more sellers will withdraw their units, especially the better units so that I will be able to buy these better units at a lower price next year.
I maintain this rally is good as it will weed out competition.
Sounds logical .. that's a +ve way of seeing it :D
I actually hope more sellers will withdraw their units, especially the better units so that I will be able to buy these better units at a lower price next year.
I maintain this rally is good as it will weed out competition.
Concur. Need price to go up higher, so that more launches coming online, more people take the plunge and more people will withdraw their for sale units, so that when the inevitable comes, there will be more value buys.
Still suspect that prices have not gone up far enough to tempt for more launches and specuvestors. Really need to continue this momentum for a longer period.
But for those whom are buying for own stay.....anythime is a good time.
But for those whom are buying for own stay.....anythime is a good time.
No lah.. what if u buy Reflections at Keppel in 2nd half 2007 at $2500 psf.... sure mati cock stand.... buy for own stay lor.... every day can stare at the Keppel shipyard reflecting on own stupidity...
hmmm ... I voted 'bullish' rt at the beginning even before my first post in this thread ... don't think I will say "buy buy buy" leh. Likewise, I think another forumer (stanlingrad) got a unit waiting to TOP & shift in, but also nvr see him say "buy buy buy" leh ...
Thanks for your contributions ... your posts so far quite close to the GS report mah, since you quoted numbers from inside .. suppose anyone in this forum is entitled to his or her interpretation - & by that, it could mean someone's view on the mkt, ques on your post, etc.
:p
May be I need to make my stand clear. In general, from a fundamental perspective, I agree with mr apple3 that property market will go sideways so in general there is no hurry to buy. But again, I am a pure technical chartist. All the charts (oil, commodities, STI, S&P500, China stocks, BDI) are pointing to asset inflation and further gain ahead. Therefore, you have to forgive my bullishness as this is my natural ability as a stock trader to take risk when bullish market signals appear. The big problem about SG property market is that there is no real time chart that can tell you what exactly is happening right now so applying TA to SG property market is tough. Based on TA on the URA property index back then, I figured out index at 140 is a good entry point but you see I need to wait for Q2 index to be released to confirm this.
BTW, it is really fun with Mr Stanlin ... how is your S&P500 short position? I hope you have stop loss in place :D Shorting S&P500 immediately after it regains 200d MA has a low rate of success in the history. FYI, I am long on BRIC ETF which has strong bias towards oil/commodities :p
May be I need to make my stand clear. In general, from a fundamental perspective, I agree with mr apple3 that property market will go sideways so in general there is no hurry to buy. But again, I am a pure technical chartist. All the charts (oil, commodities, STI, S&P500, China stocks, BDI) are pointing to asset inflation and further gain ahead. Therefore, you have to forgive my bullishness as this is my natural ability as a stock trader to take risk when bullish market signals appear. The big problem about SG property market is that there is no real time chart that can tell you what exactly is happening right now so applying TA to SG property market is tough. Based on TA on the URA property index back then, I figured out index at 140 is a good entry point but you see I need to wait for Q2 index to be released to confirm this.
BTW, it is really fun with Mr Stanlin ... how is your S&P500 short position? I hope you have stop loss in place :D Shorting S&P500 immediately after it regains 200d MA has a low rate of success in the history. FYI, I am long on BRIC ETF which has strong bias towards oil/commodities :p
Simple, your flaw is in trying to TA Sg Property. Stocks is different from properties, period.
Since you have bought already, just keep quiet and wait for your OCR condo to TOP and stay in it. No need be so bullish about the economy now by posting charts, anal reports etc coz if there is any upswing in property prices now, it also wouldnt reach your OCR, thus no chance for you to flip your property. It will only benefit those properties in 1,9,10,11, Sentosa. If you wanted to make quick buck, stick to the prime districts mentioned above.
Unless you have a property to unload now, I dun see why you should be trying so hard to keep being so bullish about the current state of economic affairs. I would rather save the bull reports when my project is about to TOP.
Simple, your flaw is in trying to TA Sg Property. Stocks is different from properties, period.
Since you have bought already, just keep quiet and wait for your OCR condo to TOP and stay in it. No need be so bullish about the economy now by posting charts, anal reports etc coz if there is any upswing in property prices now, it also wouldnt reach your OCR, thus no chance for you to flip your property. It will only benefit those properties in 1,9,10,11, Sentosa. If you wanted to make quick buck, stick to the prime districts mentioned above.
Unless you have a property to unload now, I dun see why you should be trying so hard to keep being so bullish about the current state of economic affairs. I would rather save the bull reports when my project is about to TOP.
You talk like everyone has selfish motive & only interested in prime properties/making a quick buck when they come to this forum. If it is like that, this forum will be totally worthless. Luckily there are other forumers who contribute without any agenda. What is wrong about sharing bullish sentiment when my TA of charts tell me so? Since I am the only TA guy around here. Isn't that make this forum more interesting?
BTW, the "anal" GS report is not contributed by me. It was posted by one guy in WFW thread.
A bit of condolences for those who overpaid their condo :banghead:
A bit of condolences for those who overpaid their condo :banghead:
which condo is this?
You talk like everyone has selfish motive & only interested in prime properties/making a quick buck when they come to this forum. If it is like that, this forum will be totally worthless. Luckily there are other forumers who contribute without any agenda. What is wrong about sharing bullish sentiment when my TA of charts tell me so? Since I am the only TA guy around here. Isn't that make this forum more interesting?
BTW, the "anal" GS report is not contributed by me. It was posted by one guy in WFW thread.
I'm not sure if everyone has a selfish motive or not, but I'm darn sure you are bullish and love to share bullish charts, reports etc.
And your TA charts is irrelevant when it comes to property, so dun come here and act `smart' with all your rubbish. So it doesnt make the forum more interesting. Maybe you can create a poll and ask people to vote :D
And why do you now `hide' behind the stage and say you weren't the original contributor to the GS report? Does it really matter that you didnt post it? What matters is you quoted (if i may add, erroneously) from the report and try to paint a bullish picture.
Pls stop acting like a saint :hell-hath-no-fury:
I'm not sure if everyone has a selfish motive or not, but I'm darn sure you are bullish and love to share bullish charts, reports etc.
And your TA charts is irrelevant when it comes to property, so dun come here and act `smart' with all your rubbish. So it doesnt make the forum more interesting. Maybe you can create a poll and ask people to vote :D
And why do you now `hide' behind the stage and say you weren't the original contributor to the GS report? Does it really matter that you didnt post it? What matters is you quoted (if i may add, erroneously) from the report and try to paint a bullish picture.
Pls stop acting like a saint :hell-hath-no-fury:
May I suggest you become this forum's moderator :p Then you are free to delete my posts
Property is still a good hedge against inflation in Singapore. This is not my own conclusion but according to research from NUS.
You shd not go around babbling this like it is gospel truth. (Agents love this line.)
If you go in at the wrong point in the cycle, you may not be back at status quo even after 7 yrs.
I think this situation is going to last for a while with stable price as we have 270k 5-room HDBs, even just 5% decides to take the plunge, that translates to 13,500 units of mass market condos.
Where the 5% during the previous 2 down cycles?
just remember that we are all in this mess because of the creative engineering of securities instruments sold by all these people, do you still trust them ....
The question is how much worth are these reports or analysis when only a couple of months ago that Citi, CS and a few other houses are predicting massive price decline......and now that when prices are up, they change their tune in favour of price appreciation now.
So again the question.........what's the worth in this kind of research?
Goldman called for a SuperSpike in oil last year to USD$200bp, yesterday, they are calling for USD$ 85.
In just slightly below one year, they have cut their target but a massive 56%. does it mean all the fundamentals, market factor changes so drastically........
May I suggest you become this forum's moderator :p Then you are free to delete my posts
Nah, even if I'm the moderator, I wouldnt delete your posts coz I want others to see how foolish you are, hohoho.
Some bearish views from an expat:
10 Good reasons to be a Singapore property bear
1. The current "greenshoots" recovery is totally driven by taxpayers money. Not just cash reserves but mostly future tax income. This means for decades, Govts will not be able to spend on essential services and infrastructure. There has not been an upswing in production or demand just a inflow of borrowed taxpayers cash. So we have yet another mini bubble created by false liquidity without any new wealth creation.
2. The global economy has stopped its downward spiral but it is still sick and many parts of it are still dying. It is most likely the West will flatline and stagnate for decades which will put the entire Singapore economy at risk. Just look at the last Q loss for NCL.
3. While the economy may not yet hit its bottom, interest rates certainly have. The only way forward is up for interest rates as banks attract private equity to re-capitalise. Singapore will need to follow this trend. This will devastate property affordability. Because Singapore is comming off such a low base rate now. Just a 1% rate increase will cut the amount able to be borrowed by 20 -30%. This will reflect with a corresponding price drop.
4. Supply. The supply is 3 X higher than during the last property crash in 97. The supply issue compounds from 2010 onwards.
5. DPS. This is Singapores subprime on steriods. If it wasnt a problem, the Govt would not have cut it off in 07. This hits the fan in 2010
6.Historical data. The 15 year historical data shows Singapore property to be one of the worst performing asset classes in the world both from a yield and capital gain. Its been said here before that if you bought in 96 you were still underwater even at the peak of 07. The people here who talk about "missing the boat" are just dumb. The boat hasnt been built yet. The agent trolls who bought in 07 will be passing on negative equity to their children.
7. Cultural. The kiasu culture will always mean that the Singapore market will vastly overshoot its value in an upswing. The controlled mindset of the masses by the media etc means they have a lemming mentality that doesnt know its falling off a cliff until they hit the rocks. Like now.
8. Structural. The structure of the Singapore property market is inverse to most Western markets ie it is 80% public and 20% private. This will change over time as more HDBs are replaced with Condo apartments. There is no lack of space in Singapore just a lack of 1st world accommodation. As this changes over time the relative value of Condos will decrease.
9. Affordability. Singapore has one of the worlds highest household debt levels because they are paying too much for housing. 8% of HDB owners are in default. The price of housing has been pushed up by speculation and poor economic management. Now the expat exodus has begun, the ability of the market to repay this debt is at risk.
10. Global unstability. With a flatline western demand, China will struggle to fill its factories with workers. China faces an un certain future in a low growth world. This will mean more global tax resource will be focused on defence and security. Refer to point 1 which means even less money for building a better world.
http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,53263.0.html
Some bearish views from an expat:
10 Good reasons to be a Singapore property bear
1. The current "greenshoots" recovery is totally driven by taxpayers money. Not just cash reserves but mostly future tax income. This means for decades, Govts will not be able to spend on essential services and infrastructure. There has not been an upswing in production or demand just a inflow of borrowed taxpayers cash. So we have yet another mini bubble created by false liquidity without any new wealth creation.
2. The global economy has stopped its downward spiral but it is still sick and many parts of it are still dying. It is most likely the West will flatline and stagnate for decades which will put the entire Singapore economy at risk. Just look at the last Q loss for NCL.
3. While the economy may not yet hit its bottom, interest rates certainly have. The only way forward is up for interest rates as banks attract private equity to re-capitalise. Singapore will need to follow this trend. This will devastate property affordability. Because Singapore is comming off such a low base rate now. Just a 1% rate increase will cut the amount able to be borrowed by 20 -30%. This will reflect with a corresponding price drop.
4. Supply. The supply is 3 X higher than during the last property crash in 97. The supply issue compounds from 2010 onwards.
5. DPS. This is Singapores subprime on steriods. If it wasnt a problem, the Govt would not have cut it off in 07. This hits the fan in 2010
6.Historical data. The 15 year historical data shows Singapore property to be one of the worst performing asset classes in the world both from a yield and capital gain. Its been said here before that if you bought in 96 you were still underwater even at the peak of 07. The people here who talk about "missing the boat" are just dumb. The boat hasnt been built yet. The agent trolls who bought in 07 will be passing on negative equity to their children.
7. Cultural. The kiasu culture will always mean that the Singapore market will vastly overshoot its value in an upswing. The controlled mindset of the masses by the media etc means they have a lemming mentality that doesnt know its falling off a cliff until they hit the rocks. Like now.
8. Structural. The structure of the Singapore property market is inverse to most Western markets ie it is 80% public and 20% private. This will change over time as more HDBs are replaced with Condo apartments. There is no lack of space in Singapore just a lack of 1st world accommodation. As this changes over time the relative value of Condos will decrease.
9. Affordability. Singapore has one of the worlds highest household debt levels because they are paying too much for housing. 8% of HDB owners are in default. The price of housing has been pushed up by speculation and poor economic management. Now the expat exodus has begun, the ability of the market to repay this debt is at risk.
10. Global unstability. With a flatline western demand, China will struggle to fill its factories with workers. China faces an un certain future in a low growth world. This will mean more global tax resource will be focused on defence and security. Refer to point 1 which means even less money for building a better world.
http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,53263.0.html
Wow, friend thanks for the post. Very useful
Property_Owner
06-06-09, 01:40
Some bearish views from an expat:
10 Good reasons to be a Singapore property bear
1. The current "greenshoots" recovery is totally driven by taxpayers money. Not just cash reserves but mostly future tax income. This means for decades, Govts will not be able to spend on essential services and infrastructure. There has not been an upswing in production or demand just a inflow of borrowed taxpayers cash. So we have yet another mini bubble created by false liquidity without any new wealth creation.
2. The global economy has stopped its downward spiral but it is still sick and many parts of it are still dying. It is most likely the West will flatline and stagnate for decades which will put the entire Singapore economy at risk. Just look at the last Q loss for NCL.
3. While the economy may not yet hit its bottom, interest rates certainly have. The only way forward is up for interest rates as banks attract private equity to re-capitalise. Singapore will need to follow this trend. This will devastate property affordability. Because Singapore is comming off such a low base rate now. Just a 1% rate increase will cut the amount able to be borrowed by 20 -30%. This will reflect with a corresponding price drop.
4. Supply. The supply is 3 X higher than during the last property crash in 97. The supply issue compounds from 2010 onwards.
5. DPS. This is Singapores subprime on steriods. If it wasnt a problem, the Govt would not have cut it off in 07. This hits the fan in 2010
6.Historical data. The 15 year historical data shows Singapore property to be one of the worst performing asset classes in the world both from a yield and capital gain. Its been said here before that if you bought in 96 you were still underwater even at the peak of 07. The people here who talk about "missing the boat" are just dumb. The boat hasnt been built yet. The agent trolls who bought in 07 will be passing on negative equity to their children.
7. Cultural. The kiasu culture will always mean that the Singapore market will vastly overshoot its value in an upswing. The controlled mindset of the masses by the media etc means they have a lemming mentality that doesnt know its falling off a cliff until they hit the rocks. Like now.
8. Structural. The structure of the Singapore property market is inverse to most Western markets ie it is 80% public and 20% private. This will change over time as more HDBs are replaced with Condo apartments. There is no lack of space in Singapore just a lack of 1st world accommodation. As this changes over time the relative value of Condos will decrease.
9. Affordability. Singapore has one of the worlds highest household debt levels because they are paying too much for housing. 8% of HDB owners are in default. The price of housing has been pushed up by speculation and poor economic management. Now the expat exodus has begun, the ability of the market to repay this debt is at risk.
10. Global unstability. With a flatline western demand, China will struggle to fill its factories with workers. China faces an un certain future in a low growth world. This will mean more global tax resource will be focused on defence and security. Refer to point 1 which means even less money for building a better world.
http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,53263.0.html
Well done, might not be the best but better then Her World. Keep it up!
Thank for the refreshing piece of article coming from a different angle.
Some bearish views from an expat:
10 Good reasons to be a Singapore property bear
1. The current "greenshoots" recovery is totally driven by taxpayers money. Not just cash reserves but mostly future tax income. This means for decades, Govts will not be able to spend on essential services and infrastructure. There has not been an upswing in production or demand just a inflow of borrowed taxpayers cash. So we have yet another mini bubble created by false liquidity without any new wealth creation.
2. The global economy has stopped its downward spiral but it is still sick and many parts of it are still dying. It is most likely the West will flatline and stagnate for decades which will put the entire Singapore economy at risk. Just look at the last Q loss for NCL.
3. While the economy may not yet hit its bottom, interest rates certainly have. The only way forward is up for interest rates as banks attract private equity to re-capitalise. Singapore will need to follow this trend. This will devastate property affordability. Because Singapore is comming off such a low base rate now. Just a 1% rate increase will cut the amount able to be borrowed by 20 -30%. This will reflect with a corresponding price drop.
4. Supply. The supply is 3 X higher than during the last property crash in 97. The supply issue compounds from 2010 onwards.
5. DPS. This is Singapores subprime on steriods. If it wasnt a problem, the Govt would not have cut it off in 07. This hits the fan in 2010
6.Historical data. The 15 year historical data shows Singapore property to be one of the worst performing asset classes in the world both from a yield and capital gain. Its been said here before that if you bought in 96 you were still underwater even at the peak of 07. The people here who talk about "missing the boat" are just dumb. The boat hasnt been built yet. The agent trolls who bought in 07 will be passing on negative equity to their children.
7. Cultural. The kiasu culture will always mean that the Singapore market will vastly overshoot its value in an upswing. The controlled mindset of the masses by the media etc means they have a lemming mentality that doesnt know its falling off a cliff until they hit the rocks. Like now.
8. Structural. The structure of the Singapore property market is inverse to most Western markets ie it is 80% public and 20% private. This will change over time as more HDBs are replaced with Condo apartments. There is no lack of space in Singapore just a lack of 1st world accommodation. As this changes over time the relative value of Condos will decrease.
9. Affordability. Singapore has one of the worlds highest household debt levels because they are paying too much for housing. 8% of HDB owners are in default. The price of housing has been pushed up by speculation and poor economic management. Now the expat exodus has begun, the ability of the market to repay this debt is at risk.
10. Global unstability. With a flatline western demand, China will struggle to fill its factories with workers. China faces an un certain future in a low growth world. This will mean more global tax resource will be focused on defence and security. Refer to point 1 which means even less money for building a better world.
http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,53263.0.html
Technical analysis could foresee property falls
By Tom Stevenson
Published: 12:01AM GMT 04 Dec 2007
Let's make the assumption that you are not like most investors, that you do not simply rely on what Bill at the golf club passed on to you from Bob who knows someone who's something in the City. Let's assume instead that you approach investment with a modicum of rationality. How do you decide what to buy?
I'd be prepared to bet that you rely on what you take to be the "fundamentals". You make a judgment about a company's prospects, in the light of the wider economic background, assess its management's competence and honesty and then decide whether its prospects are sensibly reflected in its share price.
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/5343653/Lloyds-Banking-Groupshare-offer---the-experts-view.html)
If you think about it, this is a spectacular gamble. The odds against you assessing the value of a stock better than all the other investors who are trying to do exactly the same thing are pretty unfavourable. It is an expression of hope over experience.
We all do it, though. Indeed you could argue that much of the investment industry - with its analysts, TV pundits and (ahem) newspaper columnists - is built around this improbable expectation.
What far fewer of us do is listen to the market and the subconscious collective wisdom that is expressed in its myriad prices. Technical analysis, which is how people tap into the market's message through the patterns, echoes and rhymes from the past, remains a minority sport played by anoraks and cranks. Even most professional investors who look at the charts do so to confirm or time decisions arrived at from an analysis of the fundamentals.
This looks increasingly odd to me. More and more it seems that studying how the world is, as shown in the charts, rather than how the fundamentals suggest it should be, is a better way of stacking the odds in your favour.
This year, 2007, has been a better year for technicians than fundamentalists. As Colin McLean, managing director of SVM Asset Management and an authority on the emerging discipline of behavioural finance, pointed out in a talk this week, the message from Northern Rock's charts was clear well before the balloon actually went up.
"The share price pattern was capturing the wisdom out there," he told a conference organised by Technical Analyst magazine.
"Only a few sell-side analysts got it right. The technical picture captured in the first quarter a change in share behaviour and a clear link with what was going on in the US."
McLean says investors are hobbled by a wide range of counter-productive behaviour characteristics. These include an aversion to losses, even to the point of running greater risks to recover them, excessive comfort in profits and an unwillingness to realise them, an anchoring of our views in past experience that may be irrelevant today, over-confidence and a focus on the near term and near at hand.
What's amazing, given the psychological hard-wiring that helped us survive on the savanna but which seems to set us up so well for investment failure, is that an approach reliant on fundamental analysis ever makes money at all.
There have been plenty of other examples this year where the charts have stolen a march on the fundamental analysis. I remember early in the year being hauled in to be told by John Duffield, founder of New Star Asset Management, why I had got it wrong about the commercial property market.
He furnished me with all the fundamental reasons why property remained an attractive asset class - rising rents, strong demand etc - but a glance at the charts of the major real estate investors such as Hammerson and British Land told a very different story. The rest, as they say, has been history.
Charts are a visual representation of mass psychology at work but they are very difficult to interpret, something that was brought home to me by one of the most readable books I've yet seen on technical analysis: Marber on Markets, published by Harriman House at (ouch!) £34.99.
Brian Marber is the doyen of technical analysts, having been poring over charts ever since Kennedy was shot and I was born - a long time. Having started out drawing charts with a sharp pencil and a ruler in the pre-computer age, he also understands more about all those moving averages, stochastics, indicators and candlesticks than probably anyone else alive.
Having devoted himself to the market's trends and patterns, its double tops and triangles and Bollinger bands for more than 40 years, he also passes my major test of whether someone has anything interesting to say about the market - he was working between 1972 and 1974, the most traumatic period in living memory for investors.
The bear market of the early 1970s proved the worth of technical analysis to Marber: "1972/1974 was a classic bear market: a technical analyst would have to have been seriously stupid not to get it right. By contrast, fundamental analysts couldn't understand it, but then, they seldom can, so they couldn't avoid getting it wrong, constantly looking for value instead of cash."
Marber's triumph was to call the bottom of the bear market on January 8 1975 and, like Cassandra, his punishment was not to be believed by anyone. "Naturally when I called its end I wasn't believed - a former Rothschild colleague remarking 'Brian Marber always was mad'. The index tripled in three months."
As he concludes in one of the many pithy one-liners gracing this elegantly written book: "It is neither necessary nor possible to understand the market; the one essential is to come to terms with it."
================
Spotting A Market Bottom
by Chris Seabury
Stock market bottoms (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bottom.asp) can be challenging to spot. And many times, investors think that they have found this point, only for the major averages to head even lower. The big question many have is: just how do you know when a market bottom has taken place? This requires the tools and indicators that have identified major market bottoms in the past, and an understanding of what they are, how they work and that each indicator must correlate a similar reading.
Stock Market Bottoms
Since the end of World War II, stock prices have generally bottomed six months into a recession (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp). Once it becomes official that the country is in a recession, it is generally a rearview mirror indicator meaning that there have already been two or more quarters of negative GDP (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) growth. On the other hand, when we are emerging out of a recession, we will not know until many months later. This is one of the reasons that it can be so confusing for investors to spot major bottoms taking place.
Things to Watch for
Just imagine how wonderful it would have been to buy stocks at bargain prices before major upward moves, such as January, 1975, August, 1982, or even March, 2003. All of those periods share some common patterns that should be observed in order to determine if the market is bottoming.
The Double Bottom Pattern
The double bottom (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp) pattern is considered to be one of the most reliable of all the technical patterns. In this pattern, the major market averages will hit a low on heavy volume (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asp), then bounce back up and then retest the previous low on light volume.
The key is to watch and see how the averages trade when approaching that second low point. If the averages have a sizable break below the previous low, it is advisable to watch and see what happens. However, if the averages test that low point and then have some type of reversal (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp), this could be a sign that a double bottom pattern is forming.
A second area to watch is volume. This is the total amount of buying and selling that is occurring. Generally, heavy volume on up or down moves shows strong conviction from either the buyers or sellers. When you see the volume lighten up on the downward moves and increase substantially on the upward moves, there is a large amount of buying taking place. After a major market bottom has occurred, you will see this heavy volume accompanied by a strong upward move in the major market averages.
Economic Numbers
Generally, the stock market will bottom and start moving higher before you see it represented in economic numbers or headlines. In many cases, the more negative economic news headlines you see, the better. When the press represents the psychology of the moment, and we start to see consistent headlines showing how bad the economy is, it suggests that the sentiment of the crowd has become so negative that the vast majority have already moved out of their positions.
A second number to pay attention to is the consumer confidence index (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cci.asp). During and after market bottoms have occurred, you will see consumer spending and consumer confidence increase. When this happens, consumers are spending more money and corporate earnings are starting to rise. A third economic number to watch is purchasing managers' index, which measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector. When these two numbers have bottomed, then started to consistently rise for more than three months in a row, the manufacturing and service sectors are on the road to expansion once again.
High Yield Bonds
Another indicator to watch is the high yield bond spread (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-yield-bond-spread.asp). High yield bonds are the bonds issued by companies who have a high possibility of default. To be able to attract investors to loan them money, they have to offer a higher interest rate. When lending standards are becoming easier, you will see the amount of interest or the spreads on these bonds drop. When this happens, it is a sign that investors and banks are becoming more willing to take risk. This would signal that economic conditions are starting to improve.
Copper Prices
Copper prices are a good indicator as to how strong or weak the global economy is. This metal is used in economic expansion in products such as pipes, radiators, air conditioners, electronics and computers, to name a few. Watching to see if the price of copper has bottomed or has room to fall further will help determine the overall worldwide demand for the metal. When demand has increased, you will start to see prices rise; when demand is falling, prices will follow.
Look for copper prices to finish declining and start to move in a similar upward pattern with the financial markets. This would be a real-time signal that manufacturers and home builders are seeing their businesses pick up. To keep up with the increases in demand, they have to use more copper, causing the price to rise.
The Bottom Line
Market bottoms are accompanied by a variety of factors, such as high amounts of fear, a decrease in the volume on downward moves, a large increase in the volume on upward moves, double bottom patterns, improving economic numbers, the spread on high yield bonds narrowing and an increase in copper prices. However, it is important to remember that the financial markets look forward at least six months prior to any real improvement in the economic numbers. By using all of the indicators together, you have the key to spotting a market bottom.
Quote from Marber:
The most egregious human failing to extrapolation of the trend: let any trend go on long enough and everyone expect the odd chartist (and I do mean odd) refuses to believe it will ever change. Accordingly, after, often long after the bear market has actually grounded, they all carry on as before, standing aside or selling short.
I am certain you've all heard of dead cat bounce; what the early months of a major upswing are inevitably called by the "experts" pontificating in newspaper, brokers' offices and on TV. Experts don't have to be right, of course, merely to have sound, usually fundamental and invariably intellectual reasons when they have been getting it wrong.
As for the bouncing dead cat, eventually those same experts who have been pronouncing its repeated death realize that particular pussy isn't bouncing but pouncing:moggy transmogrified into bull. Dead cats don't bounce; they lie on the floor getting smelly.
Sometimes, indeed, oft times, I wish the experts would lie down with them. If you lie down with dogs you get fleas, that's for sure, but with dead cats, experts have an advantage: most already have fleas.
Traders can't believe their bad luck when seeing price rise for a change. They just keep selling short. Finally, however, when they have cut their last losses on short positions and graduated to long ones, a trading mentality prevails; short-term long positions are the order of the day/week/month.
That is the main reason why the market keeps on going up; a profit is snatched; "I'll buy on the fall" is the cry. Do you think the market doesn't know that's what they're trying to do ? Of course it does; the market knows everything, despite having no eyes, ears or brain.
What the market does have is an eloquent mouth and it pays to listen to what it saying, not tell it what it ought to do. The market can't hear what experts are saying is right for it to do: it doesn't have morals; and it doesn't care. It does what it wants; and when it wants to do it.
Well done, might not be the best but better then Her World. Keep it up!
Yeah!! this is refreshing.. its better than HER WORLD!!!..hahahaha.. thats a funny one dude...
I do agree that property in the long run is a good hedge against inflation. If you can afford the 20% downpayment, why not?
E.g. D15's freehold studio appartment is about $460k. Even if the price continue to drop, how much it can drop? Almost impossible to drop to $350k.
Buy and rent out. People now asking for abt $2000 per mth rental. You just ask for $1500, sure got taker. $1,500 sld be enough for monthly installment and maintenance fee. Even 10 yrs later, you sell back at the same price as you bought, you are still gaining.
No need wait for the bottom, you may not see it. E.g. During the recent stock run-up, my friend was waiting for the stock market to bottom at STI 1200. Wait and wait and in the end, he enter the market at about STI 2200 points.
The last bottom in end 2001 or 2002, STI is abt 1200. Since this recession is worst than 2001, why the stock market bottom at 1400 instead of 1200? So why should the property bottom at pre-2005 prices?
I felt that if you really wanted to invest in a property, now should be a good time. If property prices drop, just hang on. Or you want to enter when the property prices is much higher like my friend who wait until STI 1200 is really not achieveable then he entered at STI 2200?
To each his own.
I like what you says. This is what I have been telling people all the while.
which condo is this?
Doesn't look like a condo to me... it appears to be The Peak (DBSS), Design build and sell scheme from HDB...unless of course it is HDB Condo, without facilities and swimming pool...
Yeah!! this is refreshing.. its better than HER WORLD!!!..hahahaha.. thats a funny one dude...
Nobody reads Her World here? Or you prefer Men's Health...
Mr Kiat, trust me. The more you spam the more ppl won't be reading your postings.
Quote from Marber:
The most egregious human failing to extrapolation of the trend: let any trend go on long enough and everyone expect the odd chartist (and I do mean odd) refuses to believe it will ever change. Accordingly, after, often long after the bear market has actually grounded, they all carry on as before, standing aside or selling short.
I am certain you've all heard of dead cat bounce; what the early months of a major upswing are inevitably called by the "experts" pontificating in newspaper, brokers' offices and on TV. Experts don't have to be right, of course, merely to have sound, usually fundamental and invariably intellectual reasons when they have been getting it wrong.
As for the bouncing dead cat, eventually those same experts who have been pronouncing its repeated death realize that particular pussy isn't bouncing but pouncing:moggy transmogrified into bull. Dead cats don't bounce; they lie on the floor getting smelly.
Sometimes, indeed, oft times, I wish the experts would lie down with them. If you lie down with dogs you get fleas, that's for sure, but with dead cats, experts have an advantage: most already have fleas.
Traders can't believe their bad luck when seeing price rise for a change. They just keep selling short. Finally, however, when they have cut their last losses on short positions and graduated to long ones, a trading mentality prevails; short-term long positions are the order of the day/week/month.
That is the main reason why the market keeps on going up; a profit is snatched; "I'll buy on the fall" is the cry. Do you think the market doesn't know that's what they're trying to do ? Of course it does; the market knows everything, despite having no eyes, ears or brain.
What the market does have is an eloquent mouth and it pays to listen to what it saying, not tell it what it ought to do. The market can't hear what experts are saying is right for it to do: it doesn't have morals; and it doesn't care. It does what it wants; and when it wants to do it.
Thanks for the good article. I learnt something today reading this post.
Spotting A Market Bottom
by Chris Seabury
Stock market bottoms (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bottom.asp) can be challenging to spot. And many times, investors think that they have found this point, only for the major averages to head even lower. The big question many have is: just how do you know when a market bottom has taken place? This requires the tools and indicators that have identified major market bottoms in the past, and an understanding of what they are, how they work and that each indicator must correlate a similar reading.
Stock Market Bottoms
Since the end of World War II, stock prices have generally bottomed six months into a recession (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp). Once it becomes official that the country is in a recession, it is generally a rearview mirror indicator meaning that there have already been two or more quarters of negative GDP (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) growth. On the other hand, when we are emerging out of a recession, we will not know until many months later. This is one of the reasons that it can be so confusing for investors to spot major bottoms taking place.
Things to Watch for
Just imagine how wonderful it would have been to buy stocks at bargain prices before major upward moves, such as January, 1975, August, 1982, or even March, 2003. All of those periods share some common patterns that should be observed in order to determine if the market is bottoming.
The Double Bottom Pattern
The double bottom (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp) pattern is considered to be one of the most reliable of all the technical patterns. In this pattern, the major market averages will hit a low on heavy volume (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asp), then bounce back up and then retest the previous low on light volume.
The key is to watch and see how the averages trade when approaching that second low point. If the averages have a sizable break below the previous low, it is advisable to watch and see what happens. However, if the averages test that low point and then have some type of reversal (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp), this could be a sign that a double bottom pattern is forming.
A second area to watch is volume. This is the total amount of buying and selling that is occurring. Generally, heavy volume on up or down moves shows strong conviction from either the buyers or sellers. When you see the volume lighten up on the downward moves and increase substantially on the upward moves, there is a large amount of buying taking place. After a major market bottom has occurred, you will see this heavy volume accompanied by a strong upward move in the major market averages.
Economic Numbers
Generally, the stock market will bottom and start moving higher before you see it represented in economic numbers or headlines. In many cases, the more negative economic news headlines you see, the better. When the press represents the psychology of the moment, and we start to see consistent headlines showing how bad the economy is, it suggests that the sentiment of the crowd has become so negative that the vast majority have already moved out of their positions.
A second number to pay attention to is the consumer confidence index (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cci.asp). During and after market bottoms have occurred, you will see consumer spending and consumer confidence increase. When this happens, consumers are spending more money and corporate earnings are starting to rise. A third economic number to watch is purchasing managers' index, which measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector. When these two numbers have bottomed, then started to consistently rise for more than three months in a row, the manufacturing and service sectors are on the road to expansion once again.
High Yield Bonds
Another indicator to watch is the high yield bond spread (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-yield-bond-spread.asp). High yield bonds are the bonds issued by companies who have a high possibility of default. To be able to attract investors to loan them money, they have to offer a higher interest rate. When lending standards are becoming easier, you will see the amount of interest or the spreads on these bonds drop. When this happens, it is a sign that investors and banks are becoming more willing to take risk. This would signal that economic conditions are starting to improve.
Copper Prices
Copper prices are a good indicator as to how strong or weak the global economy is. This metal is used in economic expansion in products such as pipes, radiators, air conditioners, electronics and computers, to name a few. Watching to see if the price of copper has bottomed or has room to fall further will help determine the overall worldwide demand for the metal. When demand has increased, you will start to see prices rise; when demand is falling, prices will follow.
Look for copper prices to finish declining and start to move in a similar upward pattern with the financial markets. This would be a real-time signal that manufacturers and home builders are seeing their businesses pick up. To keep up with the increases in demand, they have to use more copper, causing the price to rise.
The Bottom Line
Market bottoms are accompanied by a variety of factors, such as high amounts of fear, a decrease in the volume on downward moves, a large increase in the volume on upward moves, double bottom patterns, improving economic numbers, the spread on high yield bonds narrowing and an increase in copper prices. However, it is important to remember that the financial markets look forward at least six months prior to any real improvement in the economic numbers. By using all of the indicators together, you have the key to spotting a market bottom.
Mr Kiat, trust me. The more you spam the more ppl won't be reading your postings.
Its quite clear he is still trying to talk up the market. Justifying all his arguments with reports and postings from all over the world. Its quite funny actually. I have never heard any body invest/ speculate in properties based on TA for the simple reasons its not a liquid market and most times, its also regulated, influenced by governmental policies.
Actually its quite refreshing, refreshingly stupid I dare say, hahaha
i'm a property bear myself, but re: talking excessively up/down the market, for god's sake look in the mirror, you're doing that too!
Some of you bear guys don't see that you're acting just like jitkiat and the bulls. Grow up lah. The proof is in the current market action be it up or down.
Some of you bear guys don't see that you're acting just like jitkiat and the bulls. Grow up lah. The proof is in the current market action be it up or down.
I am a bull head with a bear body. The property prices with not shoot up much, neither it will go down much, taking reference from prices of property sold in Apr/early May 09. It would only move side-way.
bargain hunter
06-06-09, 21:58
haha, a neutral view which i agree with. spineless some may say but that seems to be the conditions right now, rebounded and trying to find a level of support. i also agree with orange about those bears trying to talk down to market. while illiquid, the ppty market is amazingly efficient and i still believe that trying to talk up or talk down the market does not get any desired effects either way.
I am a bull head with a bear body. The property prices with not shoot up much, neither it will go down much, taking reference from
prices of property sold in Apr/early May 09. It would only move side-way.
bargain hunter
06-06-09, 22:10
you sure sound like one guy who would talk up and talk down the market according to your intentions and mislead other forumers, you have no credibility at all in this forum because of what you are saying here.
Simple, your flaw is in trying to TA Sg Property. Stocks is different from properties, period.
Since you have bought already, just keep quiet and wait for your OCR condo to TOP and stay in it. No need be so bullish about the economy now by posting charts, anal reports etc coz if there is any upswing in property prices now, it also wouldnt reach your OCR, thus no chance for you to flip your property. It will only benefit those properties in 1,9,10,11, Sentosa. If you wanted to make quick buck, stick to the prime districts mentioned above.
Unless you have a property to unload now, I dun see why you should be trying so hard to keep being so bullish about the current state of economic affairs. I would rather save the bull reports when my project is about to TOP.
Spotting A Market Bottom
by Chris Seabury
Stock market bottoms (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bottom.asp) can be challenging to spot. And many times, investors think that they have found this point, only for the major averages to head even lower. The big question many have is: just how do you know when a market bottom has taken place? This requires the tools and indicators that have identified major market bottoms in the past, and an understanding of what they are, how they work and that each indicator must correlate a similar reading.
Stock Market Bottoms
Since the end of World War II, stock prices have generally bottomed six months into a recession (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp). Once it becomes official that the country is in a recession, it is generally a rearview mirror indicator meaning that there have already been two or more quarters of negative GDP (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) growth. On the other hand, when we are emerging out of a recession, we will not know until many months later. This is one of the reasons that it can be so confusing for investors to spot major bottoms taking place.
Things to Watch for
Just imagine how wonderful it would have been to buy stocks at bargain prices before major upward moves, such as January, 1975, August, 1982, or even March, 2003. All of those periods share some common patterns that should be observed in order to determine if the market is bottoming.
The Double Bottom Pattern
The double bottom (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp) pattern is considered to be one of the most reliable of all the technical patterns. In this pattern, the major market averages will hit a low on heavy volume (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asp), then bounce back up and then retest the previous low on light volume.
The key is to watch and see how the averages trade when approaching that second low point. If the averages have a sizable break below the previous low, it is advisable to watch and see what happens. However, if the averages test that low point and then have some type of reversal (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp), this could be a sign that a double bottom pattern is forming.
A second area to watch is volume. This is the total amount of buying and selling that is occurring. Generally, heavy volume on up or down moves shows strong conviction from either the buyers or sellers. When you see the volume lighten up on the downward moves and increase substantially on the upward moves, there is a large amount of buying taking place. After a major market bottom has occurred, you will see this heavy volume accompanied by a strong upward move in the major market averages.
Economic Numbers
Generally, the stock market will bottom and start moving higher before you see it represented in economic numbers or headlines. In many cases, the more negative economic news headlines you see, the better. When the press represents the psychology of the moment, and we start to see consistent headlines showing how bad the economy is, it suggests that the sentiment of the crowd has become so negative that the vast majority have already moved out of their positions.
A second number to pay attention to is the consumer confidence index (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cci.asp). During and after market bottoms have occurred, you will see consumer spending and consumer confidence increase. When this happens, consumers are spending more money and corporate earnings are starting to rise. A third economic number to watch is purchasing managers' index, which measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector. When these two numbers have bottomed, then started to consistently rise for more than three months in a row, the manufacturing and service sectors are on the road to expansion once again.
High Yield Bonds
Another indicator to watch is the high yield bond spread (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-yield-bond-spread.asp). High yield bonds are the bonds issued by companies who have a high possibility of default. To be able to attract investors to loan them money, they have to offer a higher interest rate. When lending standards are becoming easier, you will see the amount of interest or the spreads on these bonds drop. When this happens, it is a sign that investors and banks are becoming more willing to take risk. This would signal that economic conditions are starting to improve.
Copper Prices
Copper prices are a good indicator as to how strong or weak the global economy is. This metal is used in economic expansion in products such as pipes, radiators, air conditioners, electronics and computers, to name a few. Watching to see if the price of copper has bottomed or has room to fall further will help determine the overall worldwide demand for the metal. When demand has increased, you will start to see prices rise; when demand is falling, prices will follow.
Look for copper prices to finish declining and start to move in a similar upward pattern with the financial markets. This would be a real-time signal that manufacturers and home builders are seeing their businesses pick up. To keep up with the increases in demand, they have to use more copper, causing the price to rise.
The Bottom Line
Market bottoms are accompanied by a variety of factors, such as high amounts of fear, a decrease in the volume on downward moves, a large increase in the volume on upward moves, double bottom patterns, improving economic numbers, the spread on high yield bonds narrowing and an increase in copper prices. However, it is important to remember that the financial markets look forward at least six months prior to any real improvement in the economic numbers. By using all of the indicators together, you have the key to spotting a market bottom.
Kiat, your postings are always very informative and well supported with data. I enjoy reading your postings. Keep up the good job !
haha, a neutral view which i agree with. spineless some may say but that seems to be the conditions right now, rebounded and trying to find a level of support. i also agree with orange about those bears trying to talk down to market. while illiquid, the ppty market is amazingly efficient and i still believe that trying to talk up or talk down the market does not get any desired effects either way.
To talk about an efficient property market, when prices within one year can shoot up by more than 20% or go down by more than 20%, is . The property market (condo) in Singapore is anything but efficient. There is a good reason to be cautious, as property involves large sums of money (often leveraged). In my opinion this justifies being more bearish as the stakes are higher. Buy at the wrong moment, like in 1997 and you will have lost money over a 10 year period (selling in 2007) if you include all costs (morgage, taxes, maintance, inflation, periods without rent, opportunity costs of better investments etc).
To talk about an efficient property market, when prices within one year can shoot up by more than 20% or go down by more than 20%, is . The property market (condo) in Singapore is anything but efficient. There is a good reason to be cautious, as property involves large sums of money (often leveraged). In my opinion this justifies being more bearish as the stakes are higher. Buy at the wrong moment, like in 1997 and you will have lost money over a 10 year period (selling in 2007) if you include all costs (morgage, taxes, maintance, inflation, periods without rent, opportunity costs of better investments etc).
For those who bought in 07/08 peak, it may be like those who bought in 97. Since prices had generally came down about 20% to 30% from peak, definitely you wont be buying at the wrong moment like 97.
For e.g. Caspian's 900++ sq ft is selling about 550k++. Look at the hdb around the area with the same size. It is selling about 300k. So its the price of condo costing about 250k++ more than hdb too much? Even if Caspian is to drop, how much it can drop since HDB price is there to stay.
If you monitor the launch of punggol flat, the prices had not really came down. They just build the flat further away from Punggol Mrt and build it as standard flat instead of premium flat and sold at about 30k less and announced that prices had dropped. In actual fact, the prices of hdb are somehow hold steady. With a steady hdb price, how far can the price of condo dropped?
Heard that recent transacted prices bought new from Developers should be taken with a pinch of salt because while the price looks high, they came with Stamp duty absorption, interest absorption, and even renovation subsidies (these should by right be deducted from the purchase price to reflect the actual price that the buyers get! I heard that the smart ones ask for them while the goodus are paying such price without getting these goodies).
Also, for those who bought BelleRive in Bukit Timah Balmoral area at $13xx-14xx psf as reported by the news & the Developer, good luck to them! Recently, the penthouse in BelleRive was sold at $980 psf! Considering that the penthouse is usually the best unit available, and for best units of luxury & prestigous project, the bigger the units are the higher should be their psf! As such, what does this say about the actual value of the other BelleRive units? <<$980 psf? If a new condo is worth only $980 in Balmoral, what should be the valution of the other older and less favorable units in the other condo estates in Balmoral? (And I understand these people are still asking for >$1200 psf!) :doh:
you sure sound like one guy who would talk up and talk down the market according to your intentions and mislead other forumers, you have no credibility at all in this forum because of what you are saying here.
Do u seriously think i am trying to be a politician or trying to win an election here? Do u even think I would care if u think i'm not credible? All i want to do is to debunk jokers who try to create false picture of demand and justify over-paying prices for properties, especially when they want to flip their own over-priced properties for a quick profit.
C'mon, how else do we explain the low rental yield vs the high asking px?
FYI, my comment about TOP project is for a certain kiat whose OCR project is still WIP. My own 3 properties are between 4-9 years old and honestly I'm indifferent as to which direction property px move. Up, I can sell 2 of them for more profit. Down, I will just pick up a couple more.
You definitely will not see me try to talk up/ down property px in the internet. Its foolish if anybody think they can do it through a property forum. I just want to warn people not to overpay for properties, especially in this current market and not fall into the trap of developers and property agents who can spin all sort of stories about how hot the market is.
In my experience in the property market, i have seen for myself so many property agents controlling the prices of properties, not because their commissions are affected, no, that's too insignificant, but because they themselves are holding on to 5, 10, 20 properties and thus they try darn hard to keep prices high as its in their interests as well that prices do not drop.
Wow, these property agents must be damn powerful, to control prices.
Do u seriously think i am trying to be a politician or trying to win an election here? Do u even think I would care if u think i'm not credible? All i want to do is to debunk jokers who try to create false picture of demand and justify over-paying prices for properties, especially when they want to flip their own over-priced properties for a quick profit.
C'mon, how else do we explain the low rental yield vs the high asking px?
FYI, my comment about TOP project is for a certain kiat whose OCR project is still WIP. My own 3 properties are between 4-9 years old and honestly I'm indifferent as to which direction property px move. Up, I can sell 2 of them for more profit. Down, I will just pick up a couple more.
You definitely will not see me try to talk up/ down property px in the internet. Its foolish if anybody think they can do it through a property forum. I just want to warn people not to overpay for properties, especially in this current market and not fall into the trap of developers and property agents who can spin all sort of stories about how hot the market is.
In my experience in the property market, i have seen for myself so many property agents controlling the prices of properties, not because their commissions are affected, no, that's too insignificant, but because they themselves are holding on to 5, 10, 20 properties and thus they try darn hard to keep prices high as its in their interests as well that prices do not drop.
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