Morgan Stanley: Is it Really a "Job Rich" Recession?

[firec]

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor12bde100-46cc-11de-bda3-5555f0e7cbb4


Policy measures such as Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR) and the Job-Credit Scheme were rolled out late last year and earlier this year, respectively, and with only 1Q09 jobs data available, the jury is still out on how effective these measures have been. However, if the seeming resilience of the labour market is being supported merely by the lagged nature of capex, and not by other structural factors such as stronger corporate balance sheets supporting stronger employment ability, we suspect that the labour market disconnect would be temporary and job losses could soon catch up when the capex recession invariably intensifies.

[Begbie]

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor12bde100-46cc-11de-bda3-5555f0e7cbb4

From where I look at it in my industry, we have lots of prevailing contracts from the previous boom and this account to almost 100% of the current newbuilding in the pipeline...

Hence, we will still need sub-contractors, labourers, electricians, mechanics, technicians,welders, fitters etc... all accounting to the theory of "multipliers' in economic terms..

However, there are no new contracts... hence, it will be only a matter of time before we conclude our prevailing contracts and see what else can we get...

That is why in my industry, it appears that no loss of jobs...but in my opinion, if the economy doesn't get better soon, drastic measures may be made....

This prospect of economic downturn gives me the shivers..

[firec]

From where I look at it in my industry, we have lots of prevailing contracts from the previous boom and this account to almost 100% of the current newbuilding in the pipeline...

Hence, we will still need sub-contractors, labourers, electricians, mechanics, technicians,welders, fitters etc... all accounting to the theory of "multipliers' in economic terms..

However, there are no new contracts... hence, it will be only a matter of time before we conclude our prevailing contracts and see what else can we get...

That is why in my industry, it appears that no loss of jobs...but in my opinion, if the economy doesn't get better soon, drastic measures may be made....

This prospect of economic downturn gives me the shivers..
Yup, last week's 财经追击 interviewed 2 contractor bosses and they talked about the same thing. But they did highlight that government projects are propping up the industry, though competition to bid for contracts is stiff.