View Full Version : Property run-up may end in 2010
http://news.asiaone.com/News/the%2BStraits%2BTimes/Story/A1Story20090902-165049.html
Property run-up may end in 2010: UK group http://news.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gifhttp://news.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gifWed, Sep 02, 2009
The Straits Times http://news.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif
By Joyce Teo
THE run-up in Singapore's private home prices may fizzle out next year, as several obstacles are still impeding global growth momentum.
That is the view of London-headquartered Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), which represents and regulates property professionals and surveyors.
It issued a report on Monday
concluding that the sharp residential market rebound here may peter out. It cited higher unemployment in Singapore as a potential risk factor that could undermine the property rebound here.
Must be because of those $8k pm month salaries, which many are getting without the skills or productivity to back their salaries, making Singapore very uncompetitive.
Regulators
02-09-09, 14:59
we have not reached our critical population level of 6 million yet and influx of foreigners have not reached full steam yet, so how could the run-up in property prices end in 2010. Moreover with delay in IR and with many government projects to upgrade the heartlands on the pipeline in the coming years, how can the writer sensibly say that runup in prices will end in 2010? I can say that prices in the prime have corrected to a sensible level for certain projects with the exception of some projects but not all. I see D12 properties having yet to realise its full potential and certain D15 properties which is why there are still many gems to pick in the pty market.
Property_Owner
02-09-09, 15:57
we have not reached our critical population level of 6 million yet and influx of foreigners have not reached full steam yet, so how could the run-up in property prices end in 2010. Moreover with delay in IR and with many government projects to upgrade the heartlands on the pipeline in the coming years, how can the writer sensibly say that runup in prices will end in 2010? I can say that prices in the prime have corrected to a sensible level for certain projects with the exception of some projects but not all. I see D12 properties having yet to realise its full potential and certain D15 properties which is why there are still many gems to pick in the pty market.
Agree with you. Come one day all the condo bench mark will ne 1000psf
Demand may be there but if there are massive retrenchments and layoffs how to buy?
Demand may be there but if there are massive retrenchments and layoffs how to buy?
You are reading the wrong news bro. SG economists already stated that sg economy will improve next year, drop lesser this year. Government already said that retrenchmnet nos have peaked and will fall further and will not reach 97 levels. This means there will not be massive layoffs in the months ahead.
The government has all the statistics, in talk with the unions, have the tools to keep this rate down. Have the most accurate picture, I wonder what info/data did IMF and RIC use to come up with their interesting news that made headlines?
Agree that the government predictions tend to off by a certain margin, but the IMF and RIC (who are they by the way) seem to be off by a mile. Between inacurate and grossly inaccurate data, i will take the former.
Last but not least let me ask u a question, during this round of recession, people in which industry faced the most layoffs? Are they likely to even buy condos?
Must be because of those $8k pm month salaries, which many are getting without the skills or productivity to back their salaries, making Singapore very uncompetitive.
How much skills or productivity do Wall Street bankers have to justify their $800k pm salaries? :spliff2:
Or, for that matter, how productive is Warren Buffett? How many widgets did he produce in his whole life? :spliff:
Obviously, Mr Mah Bow Tan is pretty bullish about price of HDB resale flats:
HDB resale flat prices - already at record high levels - are likely to continue rising this year, said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan on Wednesday.
'The flat prices would probably go up ... by 1 per cent, 2 per cent,' said Mr Mah. 'It will just keep on going up if the economy recovers as people expect, and if confidence returns but affordability will always be there.'
HDB resale prices rose 1.4 per cent in the second quarter to a record high.
Resale flat prices go up in tandem with a very strong market, Mr Mah told reporters at the launch of the final skybridge at The Pinnacle@Duxton on Wednesday.
'We subsidised you when you buy and we increased the value of your flat when you live in it and... facilitate you to monetise it when you grow old. This is the best form of investment and welfare for the people,' said the minister.
it is because there isnt enough skilled workers in sg that we have to rely on foreign talents and that keeps the pay scale high.
retrenchments normally impact the older aged workers and the blue collar line.
it is always up to you to strife for higher pay.
Private properties in Singapore supported by foreigners mainly and also % of household with income >$8k has increased to 35%! So layoffs & retrenchments or not (which affect the lower income only) probably do not seem to affect the property market. :eek:
Demand may be there but if there are massive retrenchments and layoffs how to buy?
I hope all of you are right, you all seem confident of bouyant job market, BTW what is the definition of older workers? 45?
http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/Story/STIStory_424360.html
Sep 2, 2009 Wednesday
Property run-up may end in 2010: UK group
But CapitaLand remains bullish and will launch two new projects soon
By Joyce Teo
THE run-up in Singapore's private home prices may fizzle out next year, as several obstacles are still impeding global growth momentum.
That is the view of London-headquartered Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), which represents and regulates property professionals and surveyors.
It issued a report on Monday concluding that the sharp residential market rebound here may peter out. It cited higher unemployment in Singapore as a potential risk factor that could undermine the property rebound here.
In contrast, top local developer CapitaLand remains bullish in its outlook for Singapore, and will soon launch a 1,000-unit condo in Gillman Heights and 165 resort-style homes at the former Char Yong Gardens site. CapitaLand's upbeat outlook on the market here was reflected in slides presented by its vice-president of investment Anson Lim at a CapitaLand CEOs forum held yesterday.
The current market upswing is being driven by positive sentiment and supported by long-term fundamentals, according to the slides. CapitaLand expects the Urban Redevelopment Authority price index to recover between 5 per cent and 10 per cent for the rest of this year, from the trough in the second quarter. The index showed a fall of 4.7 per cent in the second quarter.
The Rics report was rather less optimistic. It said while an upturn in activity is already well under way in the residential market, significant risks present a challenge to the market in the medium term.
'Labour market indicators, such as unemployment, certainly point to a less benign story,' it said. Unemployment in Singapore looks set to rise sharply in the coming quarters. Based on previous relationships with the world trade index, unemployment could easily climb to 5 per cent before the year is up, it said.
Singapore's unemployment rate was 3.3 per cent in June. Labour chief Lim Swee Say said last month that the jobless rate this year was unlikely to match the peaks of past downturns. The rate peaked at 4.3 per cent in 2003.
In the short term, residential prices may be propelled higher on an improved global economy into the fourth quarter, said the Rics report.
However, the duration of previous downturns indicates further declines in prices may well occur, should global trade momentum fall short in the medium term as high debt and rising real interest rates weigh on the strength of the global growth recovery, it said.
This, it added, would temper buoyancy in the Singapore labour market and in turn would prevent a return to previous highs in the property sector.
The Rics report also noted that the run-up in office prices has been less acute, compared with residential prices'.
'Despite improved signs that economic activity in Singapore has passed its worst point in the cycle, the global economy will once again be pivotal in dictating the sustainability of that upturn, with real property prices unlikely to surpass recent highs in the coming quarters,' it said.
[email protected]
proud owner
02-09-09, 23:22
Agree with you. Come one day all the condo bench mark will ne 1000psf
ahahah thats what that old man told me last year ... 1000 psf base
I hope all of you are right, you all seem confident of bouyant job market, BTW what is the definition of older workers? 45?
official retirement age (for male) will be raised to 65 in 2012.
i would consider 50 above to be old. Definitely for me, i would want to retire by then.
proud owner
02-09-09, 23:48
official retirement age (for male) will be raised to 65 in 2012.
i would consider 50 above to be old. Definitely for me, i would want to retire by then.
my goodness 65 years old ?
just becos he so old already YET refuse to step down ..but create stupid title for himself ..to collect salary and make the commoners work to 65 to pay him ??
hahhaha, what to do? we don't have to follow what....
plan our own retirement....
proud owner
02-09-09, 23:54
hahhaha, what to do? we don't have to follow what....
plan our own retirement....
if i am 65 and still working in McDonald's cleaning toilet .. and they give me a title " Senior Mentor Toilet Cleaner" and pay me shit loads of money ... to keep quiet / do nothing .. and talk only when our pilots not happy with their pay ..
or have an aeroplane fly to London just to pick up my ailing wife ...
of course i will continue to work ...
ahahah thats what that old man told me last year ... 1000 psf base
In TA, once a resistance is broken, it becomes the support :D But I think support for secondary mass market condo still at 600psf. New launch can be from 600psf at Pasir Ris, all the way up to 1150psf at AMK :banghead:
And Economists expect GDP growth this year to be better than expected at -3.6% (gov estimate -4 to -6%). :cheers1:
Regulators
03-09-09, 15:04
i am just waiting for places like Jurong to hit 1000psf then I think there will be a serious buying frenzy for any property in the central going at less than 1000psf. Centro is the first of its kind in the OCR crossing the $1200psf mark it could just be the beginning of such trends. Again govt controlling land prices and all MRT land regardless of which part of singapore will be going at a premium. For the next 10 years, developers will continue to snap up MRT land and prices of all new condos beside MRT will be priced steeply due to continual demand for such properties.
Agree with you. Come one day all the condo bench mark will ne 1000psf
Regulators
03-09-09, 15:11
pardon my language but who the f*** wants to work past or up to 65 years old apart from those men in white who can collect million dollar salaries for doing little or nothing. Maybe if i am going to be elected president i won't mind getting paid $3 million a year just to go around gracing ceremonies, attending parades, travelling around the world on all expenses paid trip just having coffee/tea sessions with other leaders. Nobody gets paid right apart from the top 1% of singaporeans (which includes MPs) so only the top 1% of singaporeans would be telling the other 99% of the population to work till they die. :doh:
official retirement age (for male) will be raised to 65 in 2012.
i would consider 50 above to be old. Definitely for me, i would want to retire by then.
i am just waiting for places like Jurong to hit 1000psf then I think there will be a serious buying frenzy for any property in the central going at less than 1000psf. Centro is the first of its kind in the OCR crossing the $1200psf mark it could just be the beginning of such trends. Again govt controlling land prices and all MRT land regardless of which part of singapore will be going at a premium. For the next 10 years, developers will continue to snap up MRT land and prices of all new condos beside MRT will be priced steeply due to continual demand for such properties.
Something really strange is going on in Singapore's property market ...
Suburban condos like Centro are now going for around $1200 psf while an investment fund recently bought 21 units at Sui Generis condo at Balmoral Crescent for $65 million, or $1,260 psf.
Is Balmoral Crescent now equal to Ang Mo Kio? :scared-4:
Something really really strange is going on ...
Either prime properties are now severely underpriced, or suburban properties are severely overpriced!
Ang Mo Kio is where the ang mo stays :D
Something really strange is going on in Singapore's property market ...
Suburban condos like Centro are now going for around $1200 psf while an investment fund recently bought 21 units at Sui Generis condo at Balmoral Crescent for $65 million, or $1,260 psf.
Is Balmoral Crescent now equal to Ang Mo Kio? :scared-4:
Something really really strange is going on ...
Either prime properties are now severely underpriced, or suburban properties are severely overpriced!
All illogical decisions but who cares? as long as you are not one of them.
Regulators
04-09-09, 01:06
but if everything remains as status quo for the next decade and price movements are always only seen in the usual D1, D9, 10 and 11, wouldnt the pty mkt be really boring? Singapore is that small a country and it isnt that difficult for our govt to make practically everywhere in singapore a desirable location to own a property...
All illogical decisions but who cares? as long as you are not one of them.
Ang Mo Kio is where the ang mo stays :D
According to official sources, the name "Ang Mo Kio" comes from a combination of rambutan trees and some bridge found around that area.
This "ang mo" and that "ang mo" are very different ...
http://blog.baliwww.com/images/fruit_rambutan.jpghttp://theinformer.today.com/files/2009/02/queen-latifah.thumbnail.jpg
Which "ang mo" do you think will be found at Centro @ Ang Mo Kio, and which "ang mo" at Sui Generis @ Balmoral Crescent?
but if everything remains as status quo for the next decade and price movements are always only seen in the usual D1, D9, 10 and 11, wouldnt the pty mkt be really boring? Singapore is that small a country and it isnt that difficult for our govt to make practically everywhere in singapore a desirable location to own a property...
Even with price movements, there should be a differential between prime and suburban properties.
The situation now seems that the price of suburban condos has shot up very high, while that of prime condos is still very subdued. For example, Ardmore Park, the Creme de la Creme of condos, is going for only around $2,400 psf, barely two times the price of the Centro @ Ang Mo Kio! :scared-4:
I don't think people staying at Ardmore Park earn only two times that of those buying Centro. Ten times would be a closer ballpark.
If it were the stock market, this would present an excellent arbitrage opportunity. Buy one put option for Centro at $1,200 psf and buy one call option for Sui Generis at $1,200 psf.
Whether the market subsequently goes up or down, sure to make money! :p
proud owner
04-09-09, 02:05
According to official sources, the name "Ang Mo Kio" comes from a combination of rambutan trees and some bridge found around that area.
This "ang mo" and that "ang mo" are very different ...
http://blog.baliwww.com/images/fruit_rambutan.jpghttp://theinformer.today.com/files/2009/02/queen-latifah.thumbnail.jpg
Which "ang mo" do you think will be found at Centro @ Ang Mo Kio, and which "ang mo" at Sui Generis @ Balmoral Crescent?
Even with price movements, there should be a differential between prime and suburban properties.
The situation now seems that the price of suburban condos has shot up very high, while that of prime condos is still very subdued. For example, Ardmore Park, the Creme de la Creme of condos, is going for only around $2,400 psf, barely two times the price of the Centro @ Ang Mo Kio! :scared-4:
I don't think people staying at Ardmore Park earn only two times that of those buying Centro. Ten times would be a closer ballpark.
If it were the stock market, this would present an excellent arbitrage opportunity. Buy one put option for Centro at $1,200 psf and buy one call option for Sui Generis at $1,200 psf.
Whether the market subsequently goes up or down, sure to make money! :p
hahahah
i like your put and call options trade ... and YES i totally agree with you .. maybe we shouldnt say in time to come 1000 psf will be the base thru out spore .. more like , FOR PRIVATE CONDOS, 1 MIO IS THE BASE ..
that way regardless of location , as long as developers price them at and around 1 mio ..Singapore will buy ...
people fail to see that ultimately it comes down to PSF ... now only looking at the absolute amount ..which is just lying to themselves
could be a case of both..
one over priced and the other underpriced.. Bulk discount to special customers.
Not strange at all... strange would be property run during a recession, evident from flippers who gain $50k or more... we are still in a recession.
:doh:
Regulators
04-09-09, 15:05
For the sake of argument, what then do you think is the yardstick to decide what the gap should be between let's say a condo in Jurong West and the creme de la creme Orchard Scotts and Ion? If transport, accessibility and location is indeed the yardstick to decide, everywhere in singapore is just minutes away in a car coz our island is tiny, so what is to say that a condo in D9 and D1 should be $3000 to 4000psf and a condo in Jurong should remain at below $700psf forever? Some of you are probably going to say that the market forces should decide, but apart from that, is there any other better way to explain how valuators value properties just for what they are without elements that artificially inflate the prices?
According to official sources, the name "Ang Mo Kio" comes from a combination of rambutan trees and some bridge found around that area.
This "ang mo" and that "ang mo" are very different ...
http://blog.baliwww.com/images/fruit_rambutan.jpghttp://theinformer.today.com/files/2009/02/queen-latifah.thumbnail.jpg
Which "ang mo" do you think will be found at Centro @ Ang Mo Kio, and which "ang mo" at Sui Generis @ Balmoral Crescent?
Even with price movements, there should be a differential between prime and suburban properties.
The situation now seems that the price of suburban condos has shot up very high, while that of prime condos is still very subdued. For example, Ardmore Park, the Creme de la Creme of condos, is going for only around $2,400 psf, barely two times the price of the Centro @ Ang Mo Kio! :scared-4:
I don't think people staying at Ardmore Park earn only two times that of those buying Centro. Ten times would be a closer ballpark.
If it were the stock market, this would present an excellent arbitrage opportunity. Buy one put option for Centro at $1,200 psf and buy one call option for Sui Generis at $1,200 psf.
Whether the market subsequently goes up or down, sure to make money! :p
Property_Owner
04-09-09, 15:21
Our next next generation will have to stay in Pulau Ubin in near future for affordable HDB flats.
We have a god-like minister who able to control the economic cycles.
Robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Sui Generis is probably like private placement.
public would never get to buy at that price.
hahahah
i like your put and call options trade ... and YES i totally agree with you .. maybe we shouldnt say in time to come 1000 psf will be the base thru out spore .. more like , FOR PRIVATE CONDOS, 1 MIO IS THE BASE ..
that way regardless of location , as long as developers price them at and around 1 mio ..Singapore will buy ...
people fail to see that ultimately it comes down to PSF ... now only looking at the absolute amount ..which is just lying to themselves
I think Singapore is going the way of Hong Kong or even Tokyo ... where some small apartments are only 300 sf.
Then even Ang Mo Kio or Toa Payoh can price at $2,400 psf same as Ardmore Park, and the total price is only around $700,000 ... very affordable ... sure got long queue.
Even better, sell only 1 sf each (like stocks) with a certificate that you own 1 sf. Then even if priced at $10,000 psf, that's only $10,000 ... very affordable. Many people will queue up overnight.
For the sake of argument, what then do you think is the yardstick to decide what the gap should be between let's say a condo in Jurong West and the creme de la creme Orchard Scotts and Ion? If transport, accessibility and location is indeed the yardstick to decide, everywhere in singapore is just minutes away in a car coz our island is tiny, so what is to say that a condo in D9 and D1 should be $3000 to 4000psf and a condo in Jurong should remain at below $700psf forever? Some of you are probably going to say that the market forces should decide, but apart from that, is there any other better way to explain how valuators value properties just for what they are without elements that artificially inflate the prices?
Pricing is very subjective.
Pricing is all about the opinion of people whose opinion matters, i.e.
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn211/jlrx_bucket/AngMo.jpg Ang Mo
If one day she decides that Jurong West is better than Orchard Road, then Jurong West will be $3,000 to $4,000 psf while Orchard Road will become $700 psf.
Pricing is very subjective.
Pricing is all about the opinion of people whose opinion matters, i.e.
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn211/jlrx_bucket/AngMo.jpg Ang Mo
If one day she decides that Jurong West is better than Orchard Road, then Jurong West will be $3,000 to $4,000 psf while Orchard Road will become $700 psf.
haha bro, that's the truest statement you've ever made
Something really strange is going on in Singapore's property market ...
Suburban condos like Centro are now going for around $1200 psf while an investment fund recently bought 21 units at Sui Generis condo at Balmoral Crescent for $65 million, or $1,260 psf.
Is Balmoral Crescent now equal to Ang Mo Kio? :scared-4:
Something really really strange is going on ...
Either prime properties are now severely underpriced, or suburban properties are severely overpriced!
If you're an investment fund looking to buy 21 units at Sui Generis, I am sure you'll be able to get $1200 psf too!
But you're not.
Also do remember that Sui Generis units are NOT small.
I understand that the estate is small with limited facilities, i.e. apartment status and hence the cheaper price too?
If you're an investment fund looking to buy 21 units at Sui Generis, I am sure you'll be able to get $1200 psf too!
But you're not.
Also do remember that Sui Generis units are NOT small.
I understand that the estate is small with limited facilities, i.e. apartment status and hence the cheaper price too?
51,080 sq ft land is a decent size for 40 large units. But does anyone has any knowledge of what facilities can be accommodated?
If you're an investment fund looking to buy 21 units at Sui Generis, I am sure you'll be able to get $1200 psf too!
But you're not.
Also do remember that Sui Generis units are NOT small.
Ya true ...
I see those ads selling Sui Generis are quoting around $2100 psf upwards.
Wonder who will dare to buy at such price when they read that the investment fund bought at $1,260 psf.
The investment fund has spoilt the market for Sui Generis. :doh:
I understand that the estate is small with limited facilities, i.e. apartment status and hence the cheaper price too?
51,080 sq ft land is a decent size for 40 large units. But does anyone has any knowledge of what facilities can be accommodated?
There is a swimming pool, children pool and gym. Other than that not much.
http://www.suigeneris.sg/
By Channel NewsAsia, Updated: 30/08/2010
Property sales volume may dip 20%, developers likely to be more cautious
Property sales volume may dip 20%, developers likely to be more cautious
@import url("http://sgstc.msn.com/br/csl/css/38742CDE2D315FB67F7A0AF2CBE04B3B/fbutility.css");/*/*
http://sgstb.msn.com/i/C8/9D391CE1C962BC91192FF8AF6D5E1E.jpg
Private housing showroom
SINGAPORE : Market watchers are not surprised by the government’s move on Monday to cool the housing market, and some even said that it is long overdue.
On average, analysts expect the latest measures to dampen private home sales by about 20 per cent for the rest of the year.
And developers may also hold back on new launches, and turn to preview sales instead.
The relaxation of some housing policies will make Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flats more accessible to Singaporeans who belong to the ’sandwiched class’ income group, earning between S$8,000 and S$10,000 and previously did not qualify to use CPF housing grants for them.
And observers said that could shrink the pool of buyers upgrading from public housing to a private property, causing demand for private homes to soften.
This group of buyers has been snapping up mass market private homes in the past year and fuelling price increases in the segment.
Donald Han, regional MD of Cushman & Wakefield said: "I think mass market has come up if you’re looking at the first quarter of 2008, prices have gone up by 6—7 per cent. We probably will not expect prices to come down in the next two to three quarters, but we probably expect more stabilisation in values. After all, the market needs to take a breather.
"And if we can contain the leap, in terms of price increases of HDB flats, I think it will put a lid on the price increases, in terms of the mass market as well."
Analysts also expect developers to be less aggressive in their bids for state land.
Meanwhile, the Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore (REDAS) said the latest measures may make property less affordable upfront.
But it is confident the property market will create value for home—owners and investors in the long term.
Overall, prices are expected to moderate with the slew of cooling measures.
But experts are not ruling out further intervention from the government, citing concern over the huge amount of liquidity in the market and the low interest rates.
Colin Tan, director of Research & Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International said: "The previous measures were largely symbolic, and it didn’t quite address the liquidity problem. Right now, you have loan to value ratio of 70 per cent, and you have a minimum cash payment of up to 10 per cent, so that will at least soak up some of the liquidity.
"If this set of measures don’t work in terms of restraining prices, we can possibly expect more measures. Going forward with what the government has mentioned — that prices have increased 11 per cent for the first half of the year — we know that a 11 per cent rise is unacceptable. So at least we now know it should be lower, much lower than 11 per cent, maybe 10 per cent for the whole year.
According Leong Waiho, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital, price levels have now exceeded the historical peak in Q2 1996.
Average private residential prices are up 38 per cent, compared with the trough in the same quarter in 2009. This also outstrips the growth in rental yields of 9.2 per cent on—year.
For the second half of the year, analysts expect private home prices to grow by up to 6 per cent. — CNA /ls
it happened... hahah... anyway it will go up again after 2 to 3 years again.. the next peak is higher than the previous peak... due to money losing its value.
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