View Full Version : S'pore property market may be near peak
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/suite/story/0,4574,383061,00.html?
Published April 27, 2010
S'pore property market may be near peak
Increases in demand are pushing prices up, says economist
By FELDA CHAY
(SINGAPORE) The rising prices seen in the local property market are unlikely to come down anytime soon, even though the market might be near its peak, said CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun at a panel discussion on Singapore's building and construction industry.
Speaking at the graduation ceremony of a three-month course for professionals in the building and construction industry at the Singapore Management University (SMU), Mr Song said that the low interest rate environment, combined with the view that property is an asset class that can be leveraged upon, may continue to keep prices up.
'And if you take the view that it doesn't look like (interest) rates are going to go up anytime soon this year - and even if rates go up it is going up in an environment where there is growth opportunity and growth momentum - any tightening at this point will be accompanied by strong growth,' he said.
Also pushing up prices are increases in demand from both local and foreign buyers, added Mr Song.
However, the market might be near its peak, if historical data is anything to go by.
The year-on-year increase at this juncture, said Mr Song, has hit 30 per cent.
'I notice that when we get to a point where property prices year-on-year start to reach the region of 30-40 per cent, it tends to signal the peak of the market over previous cycles, so we are nearly there in terms of year-on-year numbers,' said Mr Song.
The panel discussion - which included panellists such as Keppel Land group chief executive Kevin Wong, WingTai Asia's property director Chng Chee Beow and City Developments Ltd's deputy general manager for design and projects Anthony Chia - also touched on growth in Asia, with all the developers on the panel expressing an interest to expand within the region.
Keppel Land, for one, is looking to have 50 per cent of its earnings coming from overseas markets, said Mr Wong.
Keppel Land's earnings from overseas in FY2009 represented about 31 per cent of its attributable profit.
But venturing overseas is not easy, and to turn into a successful global entity, it is important to know the target market, said Mr Chia.
'There is very little shortcut to that and that's how tough it is in some of these foreign markets . . . it's all about culture, it's all about people and understanding the market.'
Be prepare for some bad news as early as the 3rd quarter of 2010. Could be as bad or even worse than the Lehman Brothers collapse.
The signs are already here. Greece is unable to get up and will drag down the rest of Europe and USA is actually even in a much worse shape than Greece. Their debts and budget deficit is 100 times more and growing. The best financial experts are sure that US financial system will be in big trouble and could default sooner or later. Who can bail them out?
Yes property is a long term buy but : History of property price corrections of 1996/97, 2003/04 and 2008/2009 will likely be repeated in 2011/2012.
Buyer be patient as what Mr Mah advice, you will have a chance to buy at least 20% lower from current level.
Let me do some highlighting to show the contradictions between the big big headlines and details in the smaller texts. :banghead:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/suite/story/0,4574,383061,00.html?
Published April 27, 2010
S'pore property market may be near peak
Increases in demand are pushing prices up, says economist
By FELDA CHAY
(SINGAPORE) The rising prices seen in the local property market are unlikely to come down anytime soon, even though the market might be near its peak, said CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun at a panel discussion on Singapore's building and construction industry.
Speaking at the graduation ceremony of a three-month course for professionals in the building and construction industry at the Singapore Management University (SMU), Mr Song said that the low interest rate environment, combined with the view that property is an asset class that can be leveraged upon, may continue to keep prices up.
'And if you take the view that it doesn't look like (interest) rates are going to go up anytime soon this year - and even if rates go up it is going up in an environment where there is growth opportunity and growth momentum - any tightening at this point will be accompanied by strong growth,' he said.
Also pushing up prices are increases in demand from both local and foreign buyers, added Mr Song.
However, the market might be near its peak, if historical data is anything to go by.
The year-on-year increase at this juncture, said Mr Song, has hit 30 per cent.
'I notice that when we get to a point where property prices year-on-year start to reach the region of 30-40 per cent, it tends to signal the peak of the market over previous cycles, so we are nearly there in terms of year-on-year numbers,' said Mr Song.
The panel discussion - which included panellists such as Keppel Land group chief executive Kevin Wong, WingTai Asia's property director Chng Chee Beow and City Developments Ltd's deputy general manager for design and projects Anthony Chia - also touched on growth in Asia, with all the developers on the panel expressing an interest to expand within the region.
Keppel Land, for one, is looking to have 50 per cent of its earnings coming from overseas markets, said Mr Wong.
Keppel Land's earnings from overseas in FY2009 represented about 31 per cent of its attributable profit.
But venturing overseas is not easy, and to turn into a successful global entity, it is important to know the target market, said Mr Chia.
'There is very little shortcut to that and that's how tough it is in some of these foreign markets . . . it's all about culture, it's all about people and understanding the market.'
Let me do some highlighting to show the contradictions between the big big headlines and details in the smaller texts. :banghead:
There is actually no contradiction.
What the speaker means is that property price is near the previous peak of the last bull run in 1996, but since there are so many different indices and market segments, he was probably not sure so he used the words "may be near peak".
For example, the market in 1991 was also near the previous peak of 1984, just before it broke into the super bullrun that took it to where it is today.
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn211/jlrx_bucket/PropertyPriceCooling.jpg
Let me do some highlighting to show the contradictions between the big big headlines and details in the smaller texts. :banghead:
Actually, there is no contradiction. The paper says "may be near peak" but never say "near the peak" nor "at the peak".
Actually, there is no contradiction. The paper says "may be near peak" but never say "near the peak" nor "at the peak".
Actually they simply base on previous peak & say is near peak.
(this is normal folk theory)
Hi
I want to buy condo in Singapore hence doing research on property market in Singapore, reading latest updates on Condos, HDB Flats (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/hdb) at PropertyGuru. I'd like to hear public opinion as well. Please guide me if its right time to do property investment in Singapore? Any tips and suggestions are welcome.
Cheers
Emily are you buying for investment or own stay. If for own stay just BUY NOW. If for investment also BUY NOW if your horizon is more than 5 years. If you are short term investor you have 70% chance of making money if you buy now with the hope of selling in a year.
Emily are you buying for investment or own stay. If for own stay just BUY NOW. If for investment also BUY NOW if your horizon is more than 5 years. If you are short term investor you have 70% chance of making money if you buy now with the hope of selling in a year.
lol .... ...
Property_Owner
29-04-10, 21:46
Hi
I want to buy condo in Singapore hence doing research on property market in Singapore, reading latest updates on Condos, HDB Flats (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/hdb) at PropertyGuru. I'd like to hear public opinion as well. Please guide me if its right time to do property investment in Singapore? Any tips and suggestions are welcome.
Cheers
You had joined for 1 month. Please spend more time reading back the threads. Guess a lot but if u r serious. Good luck.
Even the Himalayas is growing, so who will know where is the peak!?! :spliff2:
lol .... ...
I like your answer...short and to the point...LOL:cool:
Hi
I want to buy condo in Singapore hence doing research on property market in Singapore, reading latest updates on Condos, HDB Flats (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/hdb) at PropertyGuru. I'd like to hear public opinion as well. Please guide me if its right time to do property investment in Singapore? Any tips and suggestions are welcome.
Cheers
At current level don't worry that property price will shoot up as govt will not allow it are over n resistance agst higher price. Neither expect it to come down much as interest rates are low n owners n developer can hold.
My suggestion is to find a reasonable price unit with good view n good location which can give you at least a 4% returns from rental.
At the moment, also don't worry property price will drop because General Election is coming, must maintain "feel good" factor for a "all-out" victory! Govt already said buy properties to hold and don't flip because it is going to your most valuable assets to fund your retirement in the long-run. No sellers then buyers have to pay more & more with the influx of foreigners coming to town... :tongue3:
At current level don't worry that property price will shoot up as govt will not allow it are over n resistance agst higher price. Neither expect it to come down much as interest rates are low n owners n developer can hold.
My suggestion is to find a reasonable price unit with good view n good location which can give you at least a 4% returns from rental.
I'm just amazed that every mass market leasehold condo are going above S$1m and higher like no tomorrow. No need to conduct survey. Looks that Singapore has scored another world first: highest number of millionaire in a city!
Yea the govt die die also must maintain current "bubbles" else if the property market plunges before GE, can imagine over 1mil ppl will pounce on them, which is effectively the qualified voters. Singapore will also dip into a LONG...... recession if that happens...
:tsk-tsk:
At current level don't worry that property price will shoot up as govt will not allow it are over n resistance agst higher price. Neither expect it to come down much as interest rates are low n owners n developer can hold.
My suggestion is to find a reasonable price unit with good view n good location which can give you at least a 4% returns from rental.
At the moment, also don't worry property price will drop because General Election is coming, must maintain "feel good" factor for a "all-out" victory! Govt already said buy properties to hold and don't flip because it is going to your most valuable assets to fund your retirement in the long-run. No sellers then buyers have to pay more & more with the influx of foreigners coming to town... :tongue3:
Speaking of General Elections. Out of the 10 General Elections, 5 were conducted amidst increasing property prices (1972, 1980, 1988, 1991, and 2006), 2 were conducted amidst stable property prices (1968 and 1976) and 3 were conducted amidst falling property prices (1985, 1997 and 2001).
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn211/jlrx_bucket/GeneralElectionPropertyPrice.jpg
The falling property prices in those three General Elections were due to extraneous factors rather than Government policies (1985 - Singapore's first recession; 1997 - Asian Financial Crisis; 2001 - Dot Com Bust).
jlrx, your chart is very impressive.
devilplate
05-05-10, 22:37
Looks like it stand a gd chance tat PPI will continue to trend up if GE is held during an uptrend...so better held GE asap...:D
looks like a long way to fall!:scared-1:
devilplate
06-05-10, 22:06
looks like a long way to fall!:scared-1:
u been waiting for a crash?
Turn coming !
Dow jones plunges almost 1000 pts... :scared-4: :doh: :scared-4:
u been waiting for a crash?
I'm not waiting....I'm (so are we) observing the fall....
Property_Owner
07-05-10, 21:45
u been waiting for a crash?
Might be good to sell now then buy back low, if u have e guts.
Might be good to sell now then buy back low, if u have e guts.
by the time deal completed mkt rebound liao ~ :p
Property_Owner
08-05-10, 16:51
by the time deal completed mkt rebound liao ~ :p
You know when is the rebound?
You know when is the rebound?
after a crash lor ~ :o
Might be good to sell now then buy back low, if u have e guts.
This time round, the fools who panicked during the Lehman Crisis are still fresh fools, hence it will take a longer time for them to revert into fools again.
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn211/jlrx_bucket/TheSail67-05.jpg
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