Regarding whether sellers' stamp duty increases will stop speculation, real estate pl

Regarding whether sellers' stamp duty increases will stop speculation, real estate players are divided: NUS survey

Excessive government intervention, according to respondents, may skew natural market mechanisms.

September 4, 2025

CONDOsingapore.com

According to a National University of Singapore (NUS) survey, the impact of the recent seller's stamp duty (SSD) hike on speculation may be minimal because sub-sales only account for a small portion of the market.

According to an August poll, 54% of participants think the duties, which were revised in July, will stop speculation, while 46% think they will only have a minor impact, NUS said on Wednesday (Sep 3).

The holding period for private residential properties was increased from three to four years under the updated regulations. Rates for SSDs currently vary from 16 percent for properties sold within a year of purchase to 4 percent in the fourth year, after which there is no SSD.

"The more onerous stamp duties and holding period could dampen short-term speculation, but their effects on the wider market might be limited, as the majority of private property buyers are owners-occupiers or long-term investors," stated Professor Qian Wenlan, director of the NUS Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies.

She noted that between 2023 and 2024, sub-sales accounted for less than 10% of all transactions, maintaining their position as a comparatively minor segment of the market.

Annual volumes are a "far cry" from the approximately 5,000 sub-sale transactions that were documented in 2007 prior to the implementation of cooling measures like SSD, additional buyer's stamp duty, and loan limits.

Since real estate is still a popular investment and safe-haven asset, particularly during uncertain economic times, about 58% of respondents think the SSD hike's goal could be compromised.

Furthermore, the survey concluded that market demand driven by economic fundamentals like population and economic growth will eventually outweigh the effects of property kerbs.

Additionally, according to half of the respondents, overzealous government intervention may skew natural market mechanisms, which could result in malinvestment and other externalities like spillover effects in other market segments or in the future.

According to one survey participant, the Housing and Development Board upgraders who own both private residences and public housing apartments are driving the market, which would restrict the supply of resale units.

The majority (62%) believed that the recent increase in speculative activity was "just a temporary fluctuation" and that the cooling measures in place were adequate.

"Sub-sale transactions had actually begun on a downward trend after a localised high of 411 sub-sales recorded for Q4 2023," stated Professor Qian.

Sub-sales increased 10.4% year over year to 1,428 transactions in 2024, but this growth was not as strong as the 69.2% increase in 2023.

Recent quarters have seen a slowdown in activity; in the second quarter of 2025, there were 269 sub-sale deals, which is 35% less than the peak of Q4 2023 and 31% less than the same period the previous year. Additionally, the most recent number was 16% less than the 321 sub-sale transactions that were recorded in Q1.

According to Prof. Qian, "the Covid-19 pandemic that lasted from 2021 to 2022 and into early 2023... escalated pent-up demand." Many homebuyers were consequently diverted into the sub-sale market in addition to construction delays brought on by supply chain interruptions.