Casa Merah (D16, 99 yr LH, Wing Tai/NTUC)

[ipoh72]

if economy going to be flat for next few years, how do you think the property will fare, anything but down.

I seriously suggest you spend more time upgrading and working hard to try and own a condo. No point trying for a lifestyle that is beyond you at the moment - and praying for prices to fall - in so many threads.

[KT_Lim]

if, if, if... its always good to have a dream. but nothing beats working hard. grow up.

if economy going to be flat for next few years, how do you think the property will fare, anything but down.

[Property_Owner]

I seriously suggest you spend more time upgrading and working hard to try and own a condo. No point trying for a lifestyle that is beyond you at the moment - and praying for prices to fall - in so many threads.

I second that. He thought everyone need money. sigh, I see this firec no up. Readin 'her world'? for property advice.....LOL

[cartman]

I seriously suggest you spend more time upgrading and working hard to try and own a condo. No point trying for a lifestyle that is beyond you at the moment - and praying for prices to fall - in so many threads.

lol, for all we know, he's a potential buyer with more than sufficient funds trying to buy a unit at a good price, whereas you are just a low life property agent (no offence to other obviously more professional property agents) trying to lambast anyone who dares mention the possibility of lower property prices hope you end up being his agent and kenna tekan

[cartman]

if, if, if... its always good to have a dream. but nothing beats working hard. grow up.

ah...another example of lambasting anyone just stating his opionion...its like you are so worried that any hint of property prices creeping lower will affect your rice bowl

[firec]

lol, for all we know, he's a potential buyer with more than sufficient funds trying to buy a unit at a good price, whereas you are just a low life property agent (no offence to other obviously more professional property agents) trying to lambast anyone who dares mention the possibility of lower property prices hope you end up being his agent and kenna tekan

Thanks for the support.

Yes, you are right. I'm a buyer and I have more than sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area, but I just want to buy at the "right" price, like I did for stocks when STI hit 1500 (I missed the absolute bottom, but it's ok. My overall stock portfolio is up about 50% now, thanks to Golden Agri which I bought at its absolute bottom. But I won't be selling any stock until STI hit new highs again in maybe 5 years' time.)

I'm building my property portfolio now.

[Regulators]

u may be rich from ur pty investments, but never look down on others. Remember this, u may be having a lot mre cmpared to an average joe, but an average joe could also be a lot richer than u in many other ways

I second that. He thought everyone need money. sigh, I see this firec no up. Readin 'her world'? for property advice.....LOL

[jitkiat]

Thanks for the support.

Yes, you are right. I'm a buyer and I have more than sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area, but I just want to buy at the "right" price, like I did for stocks when STI hit 1500 (I missed the absolute bottom, but it's ok. My overall stock portfolio is up about 50% now, thanks to Golden Agri which I bought at its absolute bottom. But I won't be selling any stock until STI hit new highs again in maybe 5 years' time.)

I'm building my property portfolio now.

You are absolutely contradicting yourself. You expect STI to hit new high (means > 3700) in 5 yrs, yet you expect property price to go down soon so that you can buy at a bargain?! No offence, may be you will be lucky to buy from auction or forced sale by somebody next week but if STI were to move up like you say, your window of opportunity will become smaller and smaller. If people cannot get a bargain at Rivergate or luxury segment, it will be even harder to get a mid-end free condo at East Coast cheap.

[firec]

You are absolutely contradicting yourself. You expect STI to hit new high (means > 3700) in 5 yrs, yet you expect property price to go down soon so that you can buy at a bargain?! No offence, may be you will be lucky to buy from auction or forced sale by somebody next week but if STI were to move up like you say, your window of opportunity will become smaller and smaller. If people cannot get a bargain at Rivergate or luxury segment, it will be even harder to get a mid-end free condo at East Coast cheap.

No, I just expect property to lag behind the stock market by 6 to 12 months. And with the influx of more TOP projects, many of them sold on DPS, there's a lot of uncertainty in the property market. I don't think it will bottom out soon. Just my personal opinion. I may be wrong.

And of course, you're entitled to your opinions.

[jitkiat]

No, I just expect property to lag behind the stock market by 6 to 12 months. And with the influx of more TOP projects, many of them sold on DPS, there's a lot of uncertainty in the property market. I don't think it will bottom out soon. Just my personal opinion. I may be wrong.

And of course, you're entitled to your opinions.

In reality, property market sentiment does not lag the stock market by 6 months, it is more like 2 weeks or 1 month. The published transaction data does lag the stock market by 3-6 months. For example, the current bullish stock market will barely show in Q2 PPI but it will appear in Q3 PPI if STI uptrend is sustained. Let me ask you one scenario, if Q2 PPI is +0.1%, what would u do? Would u still hold on to your belief that property market has not bottomed out ? Stock market also very uncertain BTW.

[Douk]

It is not difficult to predict Q2 is going to show improvement, but this is still premature to decide that property market is recovering. if 1Q improvement in mass market segment is triggering rush for property purchase, this group of people is probably in need for a house urgently or good luck to them.

In general, the trend is still going downwards.

The reason for stock market bull run is mainly due to a oversold market few months back on over pessimistic market view and the rush in of funds when economy has stabilized. whether the economy recover from this point or continue it falls later depends on how US is performing.. which data is still not positive..

without the backing of economic recovery and support from developers, it is unlikely for property market to go into convincing uptrend.

In reality, property market sentiment does not lag the stock market by 6 months, it is more like 2 weeks or 1 month. The published transaction data does lag the stock market by 3-6 months. For example, the current bullish stock market will barely show in Q2 PPI but it will appear in Q3 PPI if STI uptrend is sustained. Let me ask you one scenario, if Q2 PPI is +0.1%, what would u do? Would u still hold on to your belief that property market has not bottomed out ? Stock market also very uncertain BTW.

[jitkiat]

It is not difficult to predict Q2 is going to show improvement, but this is still premature to decide that property market is recovering. if 1Q improvement in mass market segment is triggering rush for property purchase, this group of people is probably in need for a house urgently or good luck to them.

In general, the trend is still going downwards.

The reason for stock market bull run is mainly due to a oversold market few months back on over pessimistic market view and the rush in of funds when economy has stabilized. whether the economy recover from this point or continue it falls later depends on how US is performing.. which data is still not positive..

without the backing of economic recovery and support from developers, it is unlikely for property market to go into convincing uptrend.

I agree with you on no quick uptrend. PPI will go sideway movement above 140 for another 1-2 years at least. However, unless there is a another blackswan event, I don't think PPI will go down further. Just like MM Lee said in Japan, not V-shape recovery, but U-shape. The problem is that most of the bears here are expecting the price to go down another 10-15%, which IMO, is unrealistic. Oversupply situation can be addressed .. developers will just reconfigure their flats into 1/2-bedroom units to sell it to the 270,000 5-room HDB owners.

[sabian]

If so bullish

why aren't developers rushing out and falling over themselves in with their enbloc activities?

This is their bread & butter, if they don't action, why shd lesser fools rush in?

[hkching]

why is there so many people selling ?

I reckon most of the owners bought this project at about 550 psf ?

Only 1st phase.. for NTUC members. You can check nationalproperty.com.sg for the original pricing

[hkching]

I check the property transaction, all April transaction selling at average 660psf. Anyone know where we will see the above transaction at 690psf?

Maybe in a month or 2. Completion for the transaction is in July.

[KT_Lim]

oh cartman, cartman.... we are talking about condos here. go back, to your kennel, or no food 4 u tonight. shoo.. shoo.. bad doggie... naughty...

lol, for all we know, he's a potential buyer with more than sufficient funds trying to buy a unit at a good price, whereas you are just a low life property agent (no offence to other obviously more professional property agents) trying to lambast anyone who dares mention the possibility of lower property prices hope you end up being his agent and kenna tekan

[East Coast Boy]

Stronger-than-expected momentum

Third consecutive month of 1000+ new unit sales
Developers launched 1,083 units in April. Launches that recorded good take-up were Verdure (sold 64 of 75 units launched at S$1,416psf), Illuminaire (72/72 at S$1,703psf), and BelleRive (21/21 at S$1366psf). Ongoing projects also posted strong sales. In total, 1,207 units were sold bringing the YTD total to 3,852, which is around 90% of the 2008 total. Our visits to new launches indicated that buying interest continues to be strong.

Possibility of higher prices in H209 and 2010
Media reports indicate developers are raising prices of select units by 2-5%. This is positive though unexpected. We think it suggests prices are stabilising and could potentially rise 5-20% in 2010, versus our assumption of flat pricing for 2010. We think there is scope for RNAV upgrades if residential prices decline less than our projections.

Resale volumes up to 470+, compared to 200 average for Nov-Feb
In April, resale volume rose 30% MoM to 470+, which was above our
expectations. We expect resale transactions to trend above the 500+ range (400 previously) as confidence returns. April resale prices for the prime segment rose 7% while the medium and mass segments were stable MoM. Projects that recorded high transactions include The Linear (23 units at S$539psf), Gallop Gables (13 atS$1158psf), The Lakeshore (13 at S$710psf), and The Tresor (six at S$1296psf). 19 May 2009


UBS Key Call CDL—high beta play into Singapore residential market
We are positive on CDL as it provides a high beta play into the Singapore
residential segment. We have a Buy rating on the stock and a S$9.00 price target based on a 15% premium to RNAV.


Stronger-than-expected momentum

Developers launched 1,083 units
Developers launched 1,083 units in April. New launches that recorded good take-up rates were Verdure (sold 64 of 75 units launched at S$1416psf), Illuminaire (72/72 at S$1703psf), Alttitude at Kim Yam (22/33 at S$1230psf), and BelleRive (21/21 at S$1366psf).
Ongoing projects also continued to post strong sales (Mi Casa: 115 units at S$639psf; Kovan Residences: 94 units at S$685psf; Lincoln Residences: 39 units at S$1156psf; Arte: 110 units at S$903psf; Double Bay: 89 units at S$670psf). In total, 1,207 units were sold in April bringing the YTD total to 3,852 units, which is close to 90% of the number of new units sold in 2008.



www.ubs.com/investmentresearch

[East Coast Boy]

1,207 units sold in April

We had expected new sales momentum to spread to prime projects and this has materialised in April and May. In total, 1,207 units were sold in April. New sales hovered in the 1000+ units range despite higher prices and were significantly above our expectations.

On our recent visits to mid-range launches, the buying interest continues to be strong. New launches include the 51-unit Parc Centennial at S$1150-1250psf and the 55-unit Meier Suites by SoilBuild at S$1200psf. Re-launches include the 186-unit The Wharf at S$1150-1300psf, the 302-unit Martin Place Residences at S$1256-1500psf, and the 99-unit Lincoln Residences at S$1220psf. To date, Parc Centennial has sold about 38 units, The Wharf 134 units, and Martin Place Residence around 110+ units.

Possibility of higher prices
Media reports indicate developers are already raising prices of select units by 2- 5% where demand seems resilient. Price creep is difficult to ascertain but we estimate that up to six months ago, early bird discounts were a permanent feature for new launches. Developers have since limited the discount duration to the initial launch. We think this is a positive development, though unexpected, and suggest a high probability of a meaningful recovery in H209. Our tracking of projects indicates buyers remain discerning and commit only when there is value. Indeed, we believe it is still a buyer’s market and on that premise, continue to expect pricing for the mid/prime segment to trend down to our forecast. We think the alignment of developer’s asking prices and buyer expectations would be key for generating sustainable demand.

Yes, you are right. Mr. firec a buyer and we all know than you have sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area or may be even PH, and just want to buy at the "right" price". ( Condo unit that selling as HDB pricing right ! ) By talking price will come down ma.

We are waiting for you to building your property portfolio now. But look like going to be long longgggggg wait man.

No worry la....We sure wait for you to come over to Condo soon.......

[firec]

Yes, you are right. Mr. firec a buyer and we all know than you have sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area or may be even PH, and just want to buy at the "right" price". ( Condo unit that selling as HDB pricing right ! ) By talking price will come down ma.

We are waiting for you to building your property portfolio now. But look like going to be long longgggggg wait man.

No worry la....We sure wait for you to come over to Condo soon.......

And you must be an agent?

[jitkiat]

Yes, you are right. Mr. firec a buyer and we all know than you have sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area or may be even PH, and just want to buy at the "right" price". ( Condo unit that selling as HDB pricing right ! ) By talking price will come down ma.

We are waiting for you to building your property portfolio now. But look like going to be long longgggggg wait man.

No worry la....We sure wait for you to come over to Condo soon.......

Firec gave himself 6-9 months, if still cannot get at bargain, will buy at 1000psf loh becos that is going to be the right price then

[ipoh72]

how to believe all these "experts", they are in trouble themselves.

UBS to cut 11% of global workforce

By Haig Simonian in Zurich
Published: April 15 2009 07:43 | Last updated: April 16 2009 10:57



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c209a82c-2...nclick_check=1

1,207 units sold in April

We had expected new sales momentum to spread to prime projects and this has materialised in April and May. In total, 1,207 units were sold in April. New sales hovered in the 1000+ units range despite higher prices and were significantly above our expectations.

On our recent visits to mid-range launches, the buying interest continues to be strong. New launches include the 51-unit Parc Centennial at S$1150-1250psf and the 55-unit Meier Suites by SoilBuild at S$1200psf. Re-launches include the 186-unit The Wharf at S$1150-1300psf, the 302-unit Martin Place Residences at S$1256-1500psf, and the 99-unit Lincoln Residences at S$1220psf. To date, Parc Centennial has sold about 38 units, The Wharf 134 units, and Martin Place Residence around 110+ units.

Possibility of higher prices
Media reports indicate developers are already raising prices of select units by 2- 5% where demand seems resilient. Price creep is difficult to ascertain but we estimate that up to six months ago, early bird discounts were a permanent feature for new launches. Developers have since limited the discount duration to the initial launch. We think this is a positive development, though unexpected, and suggest a high probability of a meaningful recovery in H209. Our tracking of projects indicates buyers remain discerning and commit only when there is value. Indeed, we believe it is still a buyer’s market and on that premise, continue to expect pricing for the mid/prime segment to trend down to our forecast. We think the alignment of developer’s asking prices and buyer expectations would be key for generating sustainable demand.

Yes, you are right. Mr. firec a buyer and we all know than you have sufficient funds for a 4br in Amber area or may be even PH, and just want to buy at the "right" price". ( Condo unit that selling as HDB pricing right ! ) By talking price will come down ma.

We are waiting for you to building your property portfolio now. But look like going to be long longgggggg wait man.

No worry la....We sure wait for you to come over to Condo soon.......

[firec]

Firec gave himself 6-9 months, if still cannot get at bargain, will buy at 1000psf loh becos that is going to be the right price then

And you must be a PropNex agent as well?

Yes, let's revisit in 6-9 months' time, and maybe I'll buy at 2000psf.

[jitkiat]

And you must be a PropNex agent as well?

Yes, let's revisit in 6-9 months' time, and maybe I'll buy at 2000psf.

No no. Your strategy is valid like buying stock, first queue hoping to get filled by seller, if not filled within a certain time period, buy the sell price. The key thing is "how long".

[sabian]

All the analysts are now singing the same song.

If the number of new units sold exceeds 7500 units by end '09 without further price cuts, I'd be in their camp.

I am betting they will not be able to move 15000 units over the next 2 year period without substantial price cuts.

Other than that, it seems to be flash in the pan and the units moved will lose its momentum unless there are decisive price cuts. The source of pent up demand (HDB owners) will dry up as the HDB price index is showing signs of cracking.

Give it another 9 months...when the looming oversupply comes online,DPS dumping , the HDB pool dries up, lower rental yield and no signs of the green shoots becoming green saplings.

There will be another song to sing.

[East Coast Boy]

But I won't be selling any stock until STI hit new highs again in maybe 5 years' time.

Yes, let's revisit in 6-9 months' time, and maybe I'll buy at 2000psf.

Buy SeaView Unit for $700psf la. Why you did not turn up and give a offer ???

May be I need to hold till STI hit new highs again in maybe 5 years time then can sell my HDB ???

[jitkiat]

All the analysts are now singing the same song.

If the number of new units sold exceeds 7500 units by end '09 without further price cuts, I'd be in their camp.

I am betting they will not be able to move 15000 units over the next 2 year period without substantial price cuts.

Other than that, it seems to be flash in the pan and the units moved will lose its momentum unless there are decisive price cuts. The source of pent up demand (HDB owners) will dry up as the HDB price index is showing signs of cracking.

Give it another 9 months...when the looming oversupply comes online,DPS dumping , the HDB pool dries up, lower rental yield and no signs of the green shoots becoming green saplings.

There will be another song to sing.

Really, I can bet $10 with you that new sales for 2009 will exceed 7,500 units. It should be close to 5,000 now. I am sure other bulls will place a higher bet with you. April figure is already at 3800+, it is not hard to see that we have at least 1,200 in May due to recent relaunches .. and it is not hard to sell another 2,500 in 6 months right even with recent price hikes in some projects.

[sabian]

wah low eh...
just having an interesting discussion, no need to ...

i am neutral towards where price is heading as i do not need to get a place urgently so pls do not let this thread degenerate like some other threads where vulgarities have been used.

i like the exchange of views in this thread.

like i said, if they can exceed 7500 units with no price cuts (even better if they achieve it with price increase), i will be in their camp.

[jitkiat]

wah low eh...
just having an interesting discussion, no need to ...

i am neutral towards where price is heading as i do not need to get a place urgently so pls do not let this thread degenerate like some other threads where vulgarities have been used.

i like the exchange of views in this thread.

like i said, if they can exceed 7500 units with no price cuts (even better if they achieve it with price increase), i will be in their camp.

Well said. At least you respect the market. Some bears here do not even respect Mr Market who is always correct, almost.

[firec]

Well said. At least you respect the market. Some bears here do not even respect Mr Market who is always correct, almost.

We'll find out in a few months' time.

Btw, I think it's always better to identify whether you're an agent, buyer, or owner/seller. I've updated my signature.

Mr jitkiat, you and East Coast Boy really sound like a Propnex agent I know. Given this property bull run, and with all the support from your friendly Mr Market, you should be rich in no time. Congratulations.

[Begbie]

We'll find out in a few months' time.

Btw, I think it's always better to identify whether you're an agent, buyer, or owner/seller. I've updated my signature.

Mr jitkiat, you and East Coast Boy really sound like a Propnex agent I know. Given this property bull run, and with all the support from your friendly Mr Market, you should be rich in no time. Congratulations.

Who is this Mr Market ? Can give his contact...?