Not agent but I have increased my position by betting that ppi at 140 will hold barring another blackswan event. Target to sell when ppi close to 220 or STI is close to 4,800.Originally Posted by firec
Junior
Not agent but I have increased my position by betting that ppi at 140 will hold barring another blackswan event. Target to sell when ppi close to 220 or STI is close to 4,800.
Junior
You can visit Mr Market by visiting all the showflats every weekend and by looking the HDB resale prices in their websites for selected areas and by visiting this forum. I am sure you can come out with your own conclusion faster than the analysts on where the market is heading ...
Newbie
So sorry to disappoint you as I am not a property agent.
Just a little small investor !
Work harder la my friend, you will be here soon. As promise we all will wait for you to come.
Newbie
whahaha okt is back
Newbie
My friend, it is difficult not to agree with Property_Owner. How can getting property related advice from Her World, n combining all transacted px of Esta & One Amber together to derive at a target px, be the smartest thing to do?
Newbie
Gradual rise in home prices seen
PRIVATE home prices in most sectors could start to rise gradually this year but high-end property will stay in the doldrums until later next year, according to tycoon Kwek Leng Beng.
Mr Kwek – executive chairman of the Hong Leong Group – said there are many cash-rich buyers waiting for the right time to buy.
‘Every time the market turns, some people would get caught out,’ he added.
The key question that many buyers are asking is: Has the market turned?
Urban Redevelopment Authority data shows that 1,207 new private homes were sold in April, making it the third consecutive month that sales have crossed the 1,000-unit mark.
It is a level reminiscent of the boom period and one that some analysts believe is unlikely to be sustained for long.
But Mr Kwek, who was speaking to The Straits Times on the sidelines of a recent hotel investment conference, feels that these levels of sales can be maintained ‘if the world economy stabilises’.
‘Confidence is the quick key to recovery. When you have confidence, you will invest,’ he said.
Mr Kwek said developers are sometimes wrong but the key is to be more often right than wrong.
He also reiterated that property is an investment over the medium to long term, anywhere from three to 10 years.
Developers got the market message this year and have cut prices to meet buyers’ expectations, following a stand-off that saw just 100-plus units sold in January.
‘If you’re listed, you’ll have to sell something. Otherwise, every quarter, you have no sales,’ said Mr Kwek.
Some developers have actually started to raise their asking prices slightly from their adjusted lows.
The strong sales so far this year have largely prompted two foreign investment houses to turn more positive on the residential market.
A recent UBS report points out that the sales momentum has been stronger than expected, with the possibility of higher prices in the second half of this year and next year.
It had already in a late April report called a ‘buy’ on the property sector, saying that demand from domestic upgraders – not foreign buying – will jump-start the recovery, as with previous recoveries in the 1990s.
Goldman Sachs has also projected a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its earlier tip of a 10 per cent fall.
‘We think the alignment of developers’ asking prices and buyer expectations would be key for generating sustainable demand,’ said the UBS report.
What is happening now in the real estate sector could be similar to the bear rally some analysts foresee for the stock market, he said, adding that the only good news is that mass-market prices are likely to hold at current levels.
Unlike high-end prices, which have fallen at least 35 per cent to 40 per cent from their all-time peak, the mass and mid-market sectors have had falls that are much less steep.
The price fall in high-end homes – which shot to more than $5,000 per sq ft during the boom from around $1,800 psf – is thus steeper, he said.
Average high-end prices may dip to around $2,300 psf, which is still higher than pre-boom levels.
Mr Kwek said the Hong Leong Group – which includes listed Hong Leong Finance, developer City Developments, Hong Leong Asia and London-listed Millennium & Copthorne Hotels – will hold off high-end home launches for now, preferring to start building first.
City Developments, the developer behind projects such as The Sail @ Marina Bay, has in its pipeline The Quayside Isle Collection in Sentosa Cove, a 99-year leasehold enclave where values have more or less collapsed.
High-end home prices were to a large extent boosted by foreign buying. ‘Foreigners will slowly come back but not so soon,’ said Mr Kwek.
The Indonesians, he said, are very slowly returning. Although the trend is barely discernible, it is a change from the previous downturn where they had all but disappeared.
Still, he cautioned against comparing prices with levels done a decade ago: ‘Ten years ago and now, Singapore has changed. Fundamentals are good.’
The country will soon benefit from two integrated resorts, for instance.
‘Worldwide, it is the worst downturn ever. But you see the amount of stimulus around. You can’t see the effects immediately. It will take some time,’ he said.
Newbie
I think we should just wait for the news for the direction of GM. If they get burst, beside affecting GM staff in singapore, it will affect many automotive part suppliers in Singapore.
Newbie
Yup. For KLB, it is always a good time to buy property.
Question is you have to hold 3-10 years, in order to break even or not make a loss.
Newbie
Bro is it true ? i went to DBS there is no such package leiFYI, DBS Bank is offering
3 yr fixed rates package..1st Yr 1.9%, 2nd Yr 1.9% & 3rd 1.9%
Newbie
Some developers here are turning to rental guarantees to lure buyers in the current down-market.
Under such schemes - which are offered only for certain units within selected projects - developers help buyers secure tenants, and also ensure that the owner gets a minimum pre-determined yield.
Far East Organization, for example, offers rental guarantees for selected units in selected projects such as Orchard Scotts, Vida, River Place, Tanglin View and Icon.
'Through our marketing efforts over the years, we found that investors do not have the time to lease out or manage the tenancy of their apartments that they have bought from us,' said Chia Boon Kuah, chief operating officer for property sales at Far East Organization.
'Therefore, in 2006, we rolled out the rental guarantee scheme to assist our investment buyers in leasing out their properties. With our own in-house leasing and estate management teams, we are able to provide a seamless one-stop service to our buyers.'
For Vida, which is located in Cairnhill Rise, Far East is now offering a guaranteed rental yield of 5 per cent a year. This, according to Far East, can potentially work out to a return on invested equity of about 10-13 per cent a year.
'Vida is a superior investment as we are offering a yield or return on invested equity of around 10-13 per cent per annum,' said Far East in a recent letter to potential buyers.
Several other developers are offering schemes along the same vein.
At Belle Vue Residences, Wing Tai Holdings is offering a guaranteed return of 20 per cent on the downpayment a buyer makes if he picks up a unit using the deferred payment scheme. (DPS). Under the scheme, the buyer will have to pay 20 per cent of the property's price as the downpayment. For a property worth $4 million, for example, this works out to $800,000.
But under Wing Tai's scheme, he will get some of that money back.
Buyers who use the DPS to buy units in Belle Vue will get a guaranteed income of 10 per cent a year for two years on their downpayments. The guarantee will kick in once Belle Vue receives its temporary occupation permit (TOP) at the end of 2010. Using the same example as earlier, the buyer will get some $160,000 two years after TOP.
Market watchers said yield guarantee schemes are generally well-received in a down-market.
Investors, for example, snapped up units at high-end residential development Gallop Gables after The Straits Trading Company offered a two-year guaranteed rental yield of 7 per cent on 10 units there in April. All 10 units at the freehold Farrer Road estate sold in three days.
Elsewhere, at its preview for The Mezzo, Soilbuild Group Holdings offered a 6 per cent annual rental guarantee for two years, apart from the interest absorption scheme. The rental guarantee kicks in right after the TOP date. Soilbuild said recently that the launch of the first phase of The Mezzo was 'met with an encouraging response'.
Market sources told BT that at least a few more new upcoming projects will offer variations of such schemes. Developers have historically offered such schemes to entice buyers when the property market is weak.
Hong Leong Group's 71-unit luxury development Cuscaden Residence had such a scheme when it was launched in 2004 shortly after the Sars scare. Wing Tai Holdings also offered something similar for Duchess Crest in Bukit Timah in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis.
However, yield guarantees are a popular option for developers, said Joseph Tan, CB Richard Ellis' executive director for residential. This is because such schemes force developers to manage units once they have been sold.
A check with Singapore's three largest listed developers - CapitaLand, City Developments and Keppel Land - showed that none of them are currently offering any kind of rental guarantee schemes.
Units with yield guarantees could also come at a higher price, said Peter Ow, executive director for residential at Knight Frank. For example, developers who offer the interest absorption scheme at their properties usually charge a price premium of 2-3 per cent for units sold under the scheme, Mr Ow pointed out. This is because the developers have to absorb the interest costs that would otherwise have been borne by the buyers. The same principle applies for units offering yield guarantees, he said.
Newbie
A friend got bank's valuation for the low floor unit in casa merah ie 2nd storey to 4th storey. It is ranging from $770K to $800K. Valuation is still low compare to owners' asking.
He got his quote from DBS, OCBC and UOB. UOB is the most cautious, their valuation is the lowest among other local banks.
Anyone has done any valuation, mind to share?
Newbie
Most of the low valuations are basically done by the banks' inhouse valuers (who more often than not, tend to take a cautious outlook).
External valuers, will however, be more open and valuations can be higher. However, most banks try not to engage external valuers for apt values less than $1 million.. (however, if you insist, they sometimes might accomodate but you could end up paying the external valers' fees).
Newbie
Of course KLB says it's a good time to buy property.. cuz he's in the business of selling property..
old saying "florist will always say their flowers smell nice"
Newbie
S'pore April industrial output up 25%
SINGAPORE - Singapore's April factory output rose 24.7 per cent in April on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, a surprise given weak April exports, government data showed on Tuesday.
Newbie
This is because most company are replunishing their inventory level. This will stop in May or June once they have stock up. There is no new orders.
I am so busy in April trying to fulfil orders but its is quiet in May.
Newbie
Your Business must be dam big
Just because your order on may slow down, we all have to follow as you ???
Newbie
Any 3 bedroom south facing for sale ?
Please PM
Thanks
Just my 2 cent worth..
Dont think he meant his business. but the recession in past few months has left huge level of inventory that cause many companies in red. China consumer spending has been helping to consume out the inventory, hence recent increase in mfg output to replenish inventory.Your Business must be dam big
Just because your order on may slow down, we all have to follow as you ???
By year end, if US consumer spending does not pick up, especially for the X'mas...we will probably see the next dip coming by year end..
Newbie
Dont think he meant his business. but the recession in past few months has left huge level of inventory that cause many companies in red. China consumer spending has been helping to consume out the inventory, hence recent increase in mfg output to replenish inventory.
By year end, if US consumer spending does not pick up, especially for the X'mas...we will probably see the next dip coming by year end..
Singapore Macro Flash: Upside Surprise in April IP Raises Upside Risks to GDP Forecasts <https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP27770.pdf>
April IP Fell only 0.5%yoy and jumped 24.7%mom SA, significantly outperforming consensus expectations for a 21.0% Contraction - The decline in IP was the smallest in 7 months and was significantly better than consensus and our expectations of a 21.0% and 24.0% decline respectively. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis (MoM SA), IP jumped by 24.7%, higher than consensus expectations for a 6.3% increase.
Stronger Than Expected IP led by, but not confined to Biomedicals… - Biomedicals manufacturing surged 68.4%yoy in Apr (vs. -52.3% in Mar) on the back of a jump in the volatile pharmaceuticals sector (Apr: 77.9%, Mar: -54.9%). However, there was also a significant moderation in the rate of decline in other sectors. Ex-biomedicals, IP fell by 14.9%yoy in Apr, a significant improvement from the 24.9% fall in Mar.
…with electronics recording significant improvements - The key electronics sector saw a further moderation in the pace of decline (Apr:- 24.2%, Mar: -34.4%, 1Q09: -38.7%). The improvement was broad-based across all sub-sectors including Semiconductors (Apr: -19.5%, Mar: -21.8%), Computer Peripherals (Apr: -26.9%, Mar: -41.1%), Data Storage (Apr: -34.1%, Mar: -49.1%), Infocomm/Consumer Electronics (Apr: -32.4%, Mar: -52.4%) and Other Electronics Modules (Apr: -26.1%, Mar: -52.2%). The EDB noted that some electronics sub-sectors recorded month-on-month increases. This is consistent with the rise in the April domestic electronics PMI to above 50, for the first time in seven months.
Other key sectors also performed well, led by sizeable increase in transport engineering - Ex-biomedicals and Electronics, IP fell by 8.8%yoy in Apr, moderating from the 18.5% decline in Mar, led by transport engineering, which rose 14.8%yoy (Mar: 0.4%). All other industries saw a slower pace of decline. Chemicals fell by 21.6% in Apr vs. a 22.4% contraction in Mar while Precision Engineering and General Manufacturing fell by 25.7% (Mar: -27.7%) and 10.2% (Mar: -10.6%) respectively.
Strong April IP poses upside risks to GDP forecasts - The large month-on-month jump in April further supports our earlier GDP forecast upgrade, and will impute a further statistical lift to the YoY GDP numbers, in addition to that from the upward revision in 1Q09 GDP. While there is a good chance of a month-on-month technical pullback in IP in May, we would not be surprised to see the YoY decline in IP in the low single digits in 2Q09, with the YoY decline in 2Q09 GDP moderating to just -4 to -5%, vs our current forecast of -7%. While we maintain our forecasts for now pending further data, we see upside risks to our already less bearish full year GDP forecast of -5%.
Newbie
does anybody know if there's one coming up soon? I passed by and saw something being built and it looks like some showroom..Thanks.
Newbie
Your Business must be dam big
Just because your order on may slow down, we all have to follow as you ???
I work in a mfg US MNC. Speaking to pple in most MNC, most of us are busy replunishing customers' inventory in April which we thought it will continued in May but it didn't happen......
Reports that are released it always on historic data. Reports released this week is all about April data. However, we have actually know the May's output and honestly, we do not see any addtional order after july
Newbie
Business Times - 27 May 2009
Pharma jump flatters April's glowing report
Volatile sector expanded 78%, skewing industrial output numbers
By ANNA TEO (SINGAPORE)
Industrial output has again exceeded expectations - this time, on the up side, though April's strong improvement was exaggerated by a pharmaceutical surge.
After sinking to an all-time low in March, manufacturing output shrank 'only' 0.5 per cent from a year ago in April, the best reading since September 2008. In sequential, adjusted month-on-month terms, April's output grew 24.7 per cent, easily the most robust increase in perhaps a decade.
The overall figure is clearly skewed by the highly volatile pharma segment, which expanded by 78 per cent last month, the Economic Development Board said, due to 'a greater variety of active pharmaceutical ingredients produced and higher production of existing products'. In March, pharma output had fallen 55 per cent.
Output in the other key industries was mostly still down year-on-year last month - electronics production, for example, fell about 24 per cent - but April levels were higher than March's almost across the board, including in some electronic segments.
Excluding the pharma-driven biomedical cluster, industrial output fell 16.4 per cent in April.
Economists are largely agreed that the April surge - particularly as it's pharma-powered - is no conclusive evidence of any firm recovery in demand beyond early encouraging signs of an imminent turnaround.
But Macquarie Research's Rajeev Malik expects electronics output to turn up soon, with ongoing improvements in global purchasing managers' index surveys hinting of 'better days ahead for growth'. He added: 'Consensus expectation for Singapore GDP to decline 7.5 per cent this year appears excessive and will have to be revised, in our view.'
HSBC's economists believe that April's surge in production went towards correcting the gap that had opened up between output and exports in recent months.
'The fact that companies are increasing production to replenish inventories also suggests that they believe that improvements in demand, albeit small, will continue in the period ahead,' says HSBC economist Prakriti Sofat.
But Phillip Securities Research's Joshua Tan remains perturbed by the divergence between two trade measures - non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI), a coincident indicator of NODX - which signals weak demand ahead.
For the second straight month in April, NORI diverged from NODX, contracting a sharper 5 per cent m-o-m when NODX slipped 1.3 per cent.
'So, chances are NODX are actually under pressure to sideways shuffle at best, which doesn't bode well for industrial output to post another large m-o-m increase,' Mr Tan said. 'If this trend gathers pace, we may have to relook our flat-W (GDP recovery) to an L-shape.'
Newbie
Your Business must be dam big Industry
Just because your Industry order on may slow down, we all have to follow as you ???
FYI, Infrastructure Construction & Biomedical Industry in US is still have strong order till May.
Soft & Hard Commodity are also having good order.
Junior
You cannot predict market movement based on "expected" news because all "expected news" already priced into the market. Respect the market movement bcos it has factored in news that you dun know.
Junior
If that is the case, worldwide shipping rate should plunge in May ..to the contrary:
Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - May 26, 2009 - Up 17 Straight Days
Newbie
A(H1N1) in Singapore shore already.
Newbie
We are shipping April's orders in May & June
Junior
In that case, STI should collapse now ... how come it is reaching new high? You mean the entire market still dun know about your diminishing order thingy? If you are so confident, why dun you buy STI PUT warrant now?
Newbie
what's all this STI mambo jambo?? you want to be STI expert.. go to SGX forum lah.. don't show off here lah.. this is a property / condo forum.
Junior
If you still dun know that STI (especially property stocks) is a leading indicator of property market price ... then good luck to you
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