2011 - OCR or CCR ?

[Wild Falcon]

The problem is not everyone judge everything by a badge right? There are people who look at the real quality of a product without needing to look at the badge. As long as i like something, it really doesn't matter it carries a mainstream well know badge like "Prada" or an obscure local designer because I'm not going to judge it PURELY by the badge or district number. I will also look at the surroundings and the real quality of the project, for instance a suburban condo like Carelbelle with its 3.4m ceiling vs Park Infinia with HDB 2.7m ceiling. Yes, maybe Park Infinia has a nicer sounding D11 badge, but quality wise, it can be nferior if one has a keen eye. I always believe if one is comfortable with himself, then the need for a badge becomes less important and he/she will look at real quality of life, whatever that means to him/her. Just like the world's billionaires almost always stay in the suburbs. Anyway, I believe what bargain hunter suggested is fair. Just one year later, whether Park infinia's premium over Carabelle will increase or decrease. That is when we will know whether the perceived prestige will increase or decrease.

Those who know their brands well and have been able to afford buying them, will be able to tell. Those who are not able to afford this type of experience cannot tell any difference and need not tell because they shouldn't be considered in this picture. Similarly, those who can tell a good grade condo in a good location and expensive area can tell the difference between that apartment and another one in the suburb. Those who cannot afford either, shouldn't even come in to try to justify the price gap.

[hopeful]

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Just like the world's billionaires almost always stay in the suburbs
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Generally they stay in expensive location, regardless of city centre or suburbs.

[hopeful]

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The favourite of PRC are Gucci and LV, because the logo everywhere, cannot miss one. Their thinking is, since spend money liao, must show off until gao pun. Something like teddybear logic like that, you know.
.....

BTW, Teddybear wear Casio watch and normal shirts. He is only interested in branded and quality plumbing for the house.

[Wild Falcon]

Affluent suburbs. Warren Buffet is not even affluent area.These suburbs are pretty far from the city center. Singapore also has its affluent suburbs - those freehold belts upstream with landed and mainly private enclave.

And I have said, once you're there. The need to validate your worth with a badge becomes less important. That's why only the PRCs walk around with the Prada and LV logos. The discerning mix and match - the occasional flea market buys vs high street brands vs the likes of "Pradas". I have a bad that is a $16 flea market buy - and I have people asking me where you buy this unique piece of gem? Style and self confidence cannot be bought. You can live in D11 condo and wear big mainstream logos like Prada from head to toe, and can still look tardy.

In any case, absolute prices have coverged so much (I don't mean PSF because new suburban units are much larger in size in general compared to prime condos), the perceived "prestige" is disappearing. I fact, it's now seen as quite cool to be living/hanging out in a ulu location, far from the madding crowd. I short, it's no longer cool to say "My favourite haunt is Orchard Road", instead my fave hangout is "obscure exotic location" is more cool now

Generally they stay in expensive location, regardless of city centre or suburbs.

[Wild Falcon]

delete. double post

[hopeful]

......
In any case, absolute prices have coverged so much (I don't mean PSF because new suburban units are much larger in size in general compared to prime condos), the perceived "prestige" is disappearing. I fact, it's now seen as quite cool to be living/hanging out in a ulu location, far from the madding crowd. I short, it's no longer cool to say "My favourite haunt is Orchard Road", instead my fave hangout is "obscure exotic location" is more cool now

Warren Buffet is odd one out. Same with Mr Sim Wong Hoo, stay in HDB and drive Corolla.
But for every Warren Buffet, there will a Mukesh Ambani and his $1billion house. The majority will be more like Laksmi Mittal in his 70million pound home in central London or HK richies in Victoria.
The affluent will congregrate in the same area.

Youngsters may find it cool to stay in their own pad in exotic locations like Lim Chu Kang for example? But the old monied, their parents well, stay in prime area. See where the old money is - that is usually the prime area.

Style and self confidence can be bought or at the very least groomed. The first generation rich are usually crass. The 2nd generation would be genteel already.

huh new suburban condos bigger than prime Orchard properties? is there OCR, RCR condos with majority of units greater than 2000sf?
Sorry not familiart with OCR, RCR condos.

[kane]

actually, i think the outperformers will come from both CCR and OCR, and it's the resale CCR and OCR that will outperform the new launches.

[amk]

Almost all new OCR launches have 3bd smaller than 1300 sqft, including the usual excesses. OCR has a 1.5m absolute price barrier that's hard to break. Best example, keppel land's jurong project.

Some forumers have this real strange idea that whoever staying in CCR is doing so to wear a badge. Despite numerous posts telling him otherwise. Like the value of precious time saved daily. And the value of privacy and quietness. It's almost, really almost, like sour grape. There is nothing wrong in OCR. Neither is in CCR. But why CCR price is higher is no more complex than why manhattan prices are higher than queens, or HK island prices are higher than New Territory. The rich and the powerful, as if it sounds so strange to some, do really stay together in areas that are not OCR where do u think UOB's Wees stay ? Or the Lees ? Or the Qweks ?

Investment in OCR has its appeal, so is CCR. But the 2 are quite different segments. Like how u play penny stocks and blue chips. There is money to be made in either segment.

[bargain hunter]

URA index is fine but a tad boring as it is updated only once every 3 months. and given that's the case, do we start with Q4 index to be announced at the end of Jan or the Q3 index which was already announced in Oct?

the Park Infinia vs Carabelle one keeps things interesting with a real life straight fight. btw, i think last 10 transactions up to 18th Dec 2011 caveat day is better than top 10psf just in case the market peaks before that hahaha. Carabelle wins if the gap is less than 91% and vice versa.

I agree, use URA index
Unfortunately, some people, like Teddybear find faults with URA index.
so another fellow suggested use 3 to compare.

[amk]

I like duchess residences vs. carabelle. it you guys use this pair for your wager, carabelle is sure to win. duchess residences is a sure loser.

Ok add one more, duchess residences v carabelle. u happy ?

Let's see duchess residences last 10 prices.. Not much, like 1700 ?
Carabelle 950 is it ?

Btw sometimes I wonder any bank creative enough to do pty forward

[bargain hunter]

duchess dun even have 10 transactions leh, how to fight?

Ok add one more, duchess residences v carabelle. u happy ?

Let's see duchess residences last 10 prices.. Not much, like 1700 ?
Carabelle 950 is it ?

Btw sometimes I wonder any bank creative enough to do pty forward

[bargain hunter]

ok, just for stalin, amk and myself's hobbies:

Duchess last 6 transactions (apr to Sep 2010) average is 1708. Carabelle is 952. Premium is 79.4%.

[amk]

duchess dun even have 10 transactions leh, how to fight?

Aiya use the last 5 lor. Since it has less units so sure less liquidity.

The other strong OCR supporter, why not nominate your favorite D21 project ? So it will be 2 CCR against 2 OCR. Fun right ?

Of course for more serious comparism we do the usual PPI. That's very easy. Pull out 2 number only.

The actual project fight is more fun indeed

[reuters]

You can tell the difference between synthetic and natural diamond using naked eye? or even with 10x scope? wow. even experienced and trained gemonologist are fooled. Of course, now DeBeers have provided them the equipment to differentiate.

Anyway, there are grades of knockoff.
The best is those from the workshops that made the genuine products themselves. Those fashion houses, they outsource the production to workshop for say 1000 handbags. The workshops produce 1300 pieces instead, Excess 300 they sell to a fence. Cost of production for a fashion goods is miniscule compared to the selling price.
Apart from those workshops, Grade A stuff are hard to differentiate also. You have to know exactly what to look out for.

And the rich, well they buy knockoffs themselves. The thing is, people know they are rich for eg, stay in GCB and drive in Bentleys, so even if they use fake, people will still think they are genuine.
And the middle class if stay in HDB, even if they buy genuine Hermes, people will still think they are fake

It is a different type of comparison that I was referring to. If you are going to the details of distinguishing real and fake or good grade diamonds, then you might as well ask if I can tell the month a tree was chopped to make the oak for the flooring of the apartments or if a construction worker really mixed his cement better for a luxury condo versus a suburban one. I am just sharing how I feel about the difference in a good class condo versus a mass market condo (i stay in a mass market one, but I would like to stay in an upscale one someday). The premium we pay for condos often goes to many items - more unique facilities, better view, address, location, surrounding shops, mrt, etc. Quite often the project's fame or popularity also makes a difference. Really quite like wearing a badge.

[mantrix]

The problem is not everyone judge everything by a badge right? There are people who look at the real quality of a product without needing to look at the badge. As long as i like something, it really doesn't matter it carries a mainstream well know badge like "Prada" or an obscure local designer because I'm not going to judge it PURELY by the badge or district number. I will also look at the surroundings and the real quality of the project, for instance a suburban condo like Carelbelle with its 3.4m ceiling vs Park Infinia with HDB 2.7m ceiling. Yes, maybe Park Infinia has a nicer sounding D11 badge, but quality wise, it can be nferior if one has a keen eye. I always believe if one is comfortable with himself, then the need for a badge becomes less important and he/she will look at real quality of life, whatever that means to him/her. Just like the world's billionaires almost always stay in the suburbs. Anyway, I believe what bargain hunter suggested is fair. Just one year later, whether Park infinia's premium over Carabelle will increase or decrease. That is when we will know whether the perceived prestige will increase or decrease.

in future new price denominator will be pcf - price per cubic feet - makes sense to count in volume since you are living in it anyways...

[reuters]

in future new price denominator will be pcf - price per cubic feet - makes sense to count in volume since you are living in it anyways...

I believe it won't be long before we become a bit like NYC. We may start seeing small one-unit apartments in prime locations with common bathrooms to share with your neighbours!

[stalingrad]

Aiya use the last 5 lor. Since it has less units so sure less liquidity.

The other strong OCR supporter, why not nominate your favorite D21 project ? So it will be 2 CCR against 2 OCR. Fun right ?

Of course for more serious comparism we do the usual PPI. That's very easy. Pull out 2 number only.

The actual project fight is more fun indeed

I will sleep soundly in 12 months ahead, knowing I am going to win the bet. I cannot foresee any situation where the gap between dp or pi with carabelle will widen. just no way.

[kingkong1984]

I believe it won't be long before we become a bit like NYC. We may start seeing small one-unit apartments in prime locations with common bathrooms to share with your neighbours!

Exactly, back to school days. If we push it further, the room is purely for sleeping.

[bargain hunter]

ok, i used last 6 caveats for the DR vs Carabelle.

U asking Wild Falcon to pick one from D21/D23? but actually that area has been quiet in terms of completions from 2007 to 2009 in terms of major projects. Maybe Park Natura vs Duchess Resi is a good comparison since sizes are similar and both are completing soon?

Projects comparison fun! but more for pple like us who r too free hahaha.

Aiya use the last 5 lor. Since it has less units so sure less liquidity.

The other strong OCR supporter, why not nominate your favorite D21 project ? So it will be 2 CCR against 2 OCR. Fun right ?

Of course for more serious comparism we do the usual PPI. That's very easy. Pull out 2 number only.

The actual project fight is more fun indeed

[Wild Falcon]

As I've said numerous times, different people ascribe a different premium to the badge. The question is whether the premium will increase or decrease. We can argue until the cow come home. The actual numbers will tell the truth one year later. Just like due to your lack of affiliation, you will pay a huge premium to get your child witihin 1km of whatever "elite" school. But others with affiliation need NOT do that anymore because even if they stay 5km away from the elite school, their children can still get in by virtue of their parent's affiliation. tio bo?

I hope you and Teddybear can finally one day understand - not everyone needs to be within 1km of whatever school to get their children into that school. There is such a thing called affiliation. That is when the world is their oyster and they can choose live where they wanna live without that limitation. in addition, many of us are already buying 3rd property or more. The need to diversify and find new frontier areas is important in order to achieve supernormal returns.

As to your desire to live amongst the "wees" or the "lees" - that is your personal preference. You can't assume everyone like to drop names about this or that person is living in my "district". That's quite amusing, Anyway, a 1000sq ft condo within the same district is a far cry from a GCB. Dropping names is not gonna impress anyone other than yourself.

Almost all new OCR launches have 3bd smaller than 1300 sqft, including the usual excesses. OCR has a 1.5m absolute price barrier that's hard to break. Best example, keppel land's jurong project.

Some forumers have this real strange idea that whoever staying in CCR is doing so to wear a badge. Despite numerous posts telling him otherwise. Like the value of precious time saved daily. And the value of privacy and quietness. It's almost, really almost, like sour grape. There is nothing wrong in OCR. Neither is in CCR. But why CCR price is higher is no more complex than why manhattan prices are higher than queens, or HK island prices are higher than New Territory. The rich and the powerful, as if it sounds so strange to some, do really stay together in areas that are not OCR where do u think UOB's Wees stay ? Or the Lees ? Or the Qweks ?

Investment in OCR has its appeal, so is CCR. But the 2 are quite different segments. Like how u play penny stocks and blue chips. There is money to be made in either segment.

[amk]

Aiyo wild, u quoted me the full post, where did I mention anything abt 1km ? The 1km thing was specific to another forumer's thread, who I understand was from a boy school therefore has a practical need. And u practically say he has no life as "everything is dictated by wife and kid".
Name dropping ? No this is no name dropping. When u started saying who and who is the richest and yet stays at suburb, u dun realize u r "name dropping"? Probably not. U r trying to prove a point. So do I. The other former earlier on dropped more names to prove the same point too : yes the majority of the rich do stay in certain areas.
In any case this is not really relevant to the discussion. U see, ppl like Stalingrad do not believe in CCR as a good investment. His main point is basically whole of SG is kind of CCR and everywhere is convenient so there should not have such large price gap. Well I may not agree with him, but at least this is a meaningful discussion. On the other hand, you simply detest anything in CCR. U really have these strange belief that anyone owning or investing in CCR is either snobbish, dying to show off, "to wear a badge", etc. Well i suppose this is kind of "inception" deeply rooted in you, so Let's just rest the case here.
So, do u take the Park Natura vs. Duchess Residences fight or not ?

[amk]

Or u want to pick another one ? I remember u like hill vista

[DaytonaSS]

after reading the threads , i cant help but find that many OCR supports tag pple who buy CCR as pple whom are stupid, paying more psf for lousy developement, or pple with ego problem, buy badge/prestige, or some even go to the extend bet $$$ to prove their point that they got better foresight.

There are someone whom also post things like some condo look like worker's quarters......

Lets be more gracious as u are talking about someone's home. Pple may have work their socks to upgrade to their dream home for their family. While u are successful in your own right, it is also nice to have some basic courtesy.

OCR pls huat huat big time. Best is chong to $2000 psf. All the best

[teddybear]

I find it really strange some people have to resort to all means to justify that there is no need to spend so much more money to buy CCR properties. In all your posts, it is always about money. I just don't understand - Are those extra money spent much more valuable than giving your family a better and more convenient place to live in? If people like us are not even bothered with spending those money, why should you be bothered to the extend of calling people "stupid" etc?
Back to school again - say I get my child into the school through affiliation though I live 15km away from the school, so? After that you expect me to see my child spending >2 hours on the road everyday? See them wake up at 5am everyday, return home at about 3 pm then can eat lunch? Is your money more important than the well-being of your children? This is not so for me so I rather spend the extra money on the property. If money is more important to you than providing better life for your family members, fine, you can keep your money but you do not have to broadcast for everyone here to know that you value money more than your family (as though that is very honorable?) and there is no need to demand everybody to be like you.

As I've said numerous times, different people ascribe a different premium to the badge. The question is whether the premium will increase or decrease. We can argue until the cow come home. The actual numbers will tell the truth one year later. Just like due to your lack of affiliation, you will pay a huge premium to get your child witihin 1km of whatever "elite" school. But others with affiliation need NOT do that anymore because even if they stay 5km away from the elite school, their children can still get in by virtue of their parent's affiliation. tio bo?

I hope you and Teddybear can finally one day understand - not everyone needs to be within 1km of whatever school to get their children into that school. There is such a thing called affiliation. That is when the world is their oyster and they can choose live where they wanna live without that limitation. in addition, many of us are already buying 3rd property or more. The need to diversify and find new frontier areas is important in order to achieve supernormal returns.

As to your desire to live amongst the "wees" or the "lees" - that is your personal preference. You can't assume everyone like to drop names about this or that person is living in my "district". That's quite amusing, Anyway, a 1000sq ft condo within the same district is a far cry from a GCB. Dropping names is not gonna impress anyone other than yourself.

[nobrainer32007]

A lot of dumb logic and people in this forum..... But good to read just for fun.

I find it really strange some people have to resort to all means to justify that there is no need to spend so much more money to buy CCR properties. In all your posts, it is always about money. I just don't understand - Are those extra money spent much more valuable than giving your family a better and more convenient place to live in? If people like us are not even bothered with spending those money, why should you be bothered to the extend of calling people "stupid" etc?
Back to school again - say I get my child into the school through affiliation though I live 15km away from the school, so? After that you expect me to see my child spending >2 hours on the road everyday? See them wake up at 5am everyday, return home at about 3 pm then can eat lunch? Is your money more important than the well-being of your children? This is not so for me so I rather spend the extra money on the property. If money is more important to you than providing better life for your family members, fine, you can keep your money but you do not have to broadcast for everyone here to know that you value money more than your family (as though that is very honorable?) and there is no need to demand everybody to be like you.

[hopeful]

there is an English proverb:
"Birds of the same feather flock together".

Those who stay in CCR, as in traditional D9,D10,D11 are a certain kind.
Those who stay in OCR, are another kind.

As to the whole of Singapore being CCR because of connectivity etc, then perhaps the Chief Valuer is correct to value all of Singapore to have the potential to be Raffles Place
watch out, HDB flats are going to increase again!

there is another English proverb:
"One swallow doesn't make a summer".
Just because an eccentric rich stay in OCR or suburb, doesn't make OCR the same as CCR.
Yes, you don't call a rich person with unsound mind crazy, the proper term is eccentric. The proper term for poor person with unsound mind is crazy or lunatic.

[hopeful]

actually I am interested to hear WildFalcon's definition of CCR?
Is it traditional prime areas of D9,D10,D11 , and excluding MM units?
Large size units and high psf?
Because CCR have cheap developments also.

[Wild Falcon]

As I've said, there is a premium, is whether the premium will increase or decrease right? I just believe with increased connectivity, the premium will narrow. It has happened last year and will continue to do so as new areas get developed. It's the same concept as developing nations growing at a faster pace than developed nations, which struggle to grow (if at all).

As i always believe, widen your horizons. Some people only travel to certain destinations. Others like more exotic vacation spots, even if it means it doesn't have the similar large scale "brand name" hotels. Some people only invest in developed nations while others diversify into developing countries/localities. It takes more guts to be unconventional. I just believe those $600-800psf OCRs/RCRs near MRT or future MRT, has a higher potential upside today than those $2000psf CCR properties. Remember, a $600psf property just need to become $720psf to achieve a 20% return. Whereas a Glynderbourne at $2300psf needs to go up to $2800psf to achieve the same return - what r the surrounding condos trading at? I would rather place my bet on the former than the latter.

And Singapore has 27 (?) districts, why does one has to restrict their investments or scope to only 3-4 districts? 5,12,13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 ,20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25,26,27 etc. - there r so many choices and undervalued gems still do exist, why confine yourself within a box? If one is buying investment property, returns is the #1 critera - not prestige anymore (since I'm not living there). I believe those harping about prestige or and living amongst "Lees" is still looking at PRIMARY residence right? Then the motivation from others looking to invest in more properties is very different.

there is an English proverb:
"Birds of the same feather flock together".

Those who stay in CCR, as in traditional D9,D10,D11 are a certain kind.
Those who stay in OCR, are another kind.

As to the whole of Singapore being CCR because of connectivity etc, then perhaps the Chief Valuer is correct to value all of Singapore to have the potential to be Raffles Place
watch out, HDB flats are going to increase again!

there is another English proverb:
"One swallow doesn't make a summer".
Just because an eccentric rich stay in OCR or suburb, doesn't make OCR the same as CCR.
Yes, you don't call a rich person with unsound mind crazy, the proper term is eccentric. The proper term for poor person with unsound mind is crazy or lunatic.

[reuters]

As I've said, there is a premium, is whether the premium will increase or decrease right? I just believe with increased connectivity, the premium will narrow. It has happened last year and will continue to do so as new areas get developed. It's the same concept as developing nations growing at a faster pace than developed nations, which struggle to grow (if at all).

As i always believe, widen your horizons. Some people only travel to certain destinations. Others like more exotic vacation spots, even if it means it doesn't have the similar large scale "brand name" hotels. Some people only invest in developed nations while others diversify into developing countries/localities. It takes more guts to be unconventional. I just believe those $600-800psf OCRs/RCRs near MRT or future MRT, has a higher potential upside today than those $2000psf CCR properties. Remember, a $600psf property just need to become $720psf to achieve a 20% return. Whereas a Glynderbourne at $2300psf needs to go up to $2800psf to achieve the same return - what r the surrounding condos trading at? I would rather place my bet on the former than the latter.

And Singapore has 27 (?) districts, why does one has to restrict their investments or scope to only 3-4 districts? 5,12,13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 ,20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25,26,27 etc. - there r so many choices and undervalued gems still do exist, why confine yourself within a box? If one is buying investment property, returns is the #1 critera - not prestige anymore (since I'm not living there). I believe those harping about prestige or and living amongst "Lees" is still looking at PRIMARY residence right? Then the motivation from others looking to invest in more properties is very different.

The key factor here is 'growth potential' so if the OCR property is near a future MRT, its growth potential is definitely more than a CCR property near malls/MRTs that are already operational. However, some properties continue to appreciate no matter what, because of their proximity to some schools that parents want their children to be enrolled in (also because they don't have the affiliation) - ACS primary and junior schools for instance. The other factor for consideration is rental yield and ability. 1 mil can probably get you a 3-bedroom 99-yr leasehold apartment in Pasir Ris compared with a 1-bedroom freehold condo in River Valley. Which is easier to attract tenants?

[hopeful]

As I've said, there is a premium, is whether the premium will increase or decrease right? I just believe with increased connectivity, the premium will narrow. It has happened last year and will continue to do so as new areas get developed. It's the same concept as developing nations growing at a faster pace than developed nations, which struggle to grow (if at all).
.........

Regarding the calculation that I agree.
On paper, it is logical to assume that it easier for OCR to gain 20% rather than for CCR to gain 20%.
However, what does history show?
in 1980, 1990,2000,2010, what were the gap between OCR and CCR?
Where is JLRX when you need him? JLRX could probably give the newspaper cuttings of prices at those times.

Perhaps we can use HDB as extreme example:
In 1980, 1 GCB can buy how many HDB?
In 2010, 1 GCB can buy how many HDB?