Property market sentiments 2011

[phantom_opera]

I have never seen such stock market volatility before in my life, The Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section, making up the country's biggest companies, has lost about $626 billion in market capitalization this week. Citi dropped to $1 across many months back then, in Japan, it is 3 days. A lot of suicide cases will come judging from 1987 Black Friday's experiences.

Just to quote some from Reuters:

Japanese officials tried to calm the market and moved to reduce short selling, placing limits on broker sales of stocks for arbitrage trading. That move helped spark a bout of short-covering in the afternoon, and stocks finished off their lows.

Shares of Tokyo Electric Power (9501.T), the owner of the stricken nuclear plant, did not trade, although sellers massed at the indicated price of 1,221 yen on Tuesday. There were no buyers at that price.

The scale and speed of the equity selloff forced domestic fund managers to sit on the sidelines as market volumes surged to a record for a second day running.

"Even if we wanted to sell today there was very little we could do," said a manager at a Japanese fund, asking not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

"We didn't sell and waited, sidelined because hedge funds were just dumping stocks in panic."

Traders said overseas hedge funds were particularly aggressive sellers in Nikkei futures, especially the Singapore -listed contracts. The massive swings in futures sent implied volatility on Nikkei options JNIATMIV.OS soaring to 63 percent, the highest since the financial crisis.

During the first phase of the rout, many domestic portfolio managers sat on the sidelines to await more clarity on the nuclear troubles. But some investors threw in the towel on Tuesday.

"Today's market moves truly show the severeness of Japanese situation, it's a true market, it's not a lie or speculation. We're not talking any more about power cuts, earthquake or tsunami, we're talking about which areas will get most radioactive exposure," said the chief trader at a Japanese securities firm.

[hopeful]

Think either the character of the Japanese people has changed or I have a severe misconception of Japanese national character.

I would have thought that the Japanese workers would wear radiation suits and repair the damage nuclear reactors. All would die but their actions would save the rest. At most, they would last like 30 mins to 1 hour if fuel rods really exposed.

The head of company also hasn't committed seppuku or resigned .
Think he would just say "It is a once in 50 year event". "honest mistake, lets move on." kind of stuff.

[richwang]

HK is starting to increase interest rate now - a leading indicator for Singapore to increase interest rate? Thanks, Richard

[phantom_opera]

If not mistaken, HK banks are not increasing the interest rate but increase the margin, for example the rate here may be SIBOR+0.5% but in Hong Kong, it is HIBOR+0.8% or HIBOR+1% .. .

[wind30]

whats so different about this earthquake?
Kobe earthquake and LA earthquake, the reactions of market quite normal le.

this time round the damage is WIDESPREAD. Kobe was very localised. just kobe.

Even my company's competitor based in Japan kenna. Heard their Fab shut down in Japan. Our customer trying to buy more from us to buffer from the expected loss in supply.

Today the news reports looked pretty grim.

[rattydrama]

Should there be any more bad news don't think the current property price can hold. Singapore is not in control of external factors and yet our economy is dependent on it.

Very said to hear that, it will also means the property price will not be moving upwards anytime sooner.


Prime minister of japan said this is the worst diaster since WWII.

[phantom_opera]

there is supply chain problem ... imagine 30% of power is lost in Japan.... lots of foreign workers exiting ... the likes of Soros come and short futures/stock .... constant radiation fear to Tokyo .... hell

[phantom_opera]

Moody’s downgrades Portugal to A3 and assigns negative outlook

I guess people are numb to this kind of news already and assume EU will take care of it.

[teddybear]

Why so negative?
Look at the positive side and you see lots of money flowing out of Japan, and Singapore is 1 possible destination - to be parked in stocks and properties. Rich Japanese will be looking to buy a holiday home in somewhere safe and far from Japan, and Singapore is a good and natural choice - no natural disaster, safe socially and economically, their wife can go shopping and return at 3am in the morning walking alone without fearing of any mishap.

Should there be any more bad news don't think the current property price can hold. Singapore is not in control of external factors and yet our economy is dependent on it.

Very said to hear that, it will also means the property price will not be moving upwards anytime sooner.


Prime minister of japan said this is the worst diaster since WWII.

[avo7007]

Why so negative?
Look at the positive side and you see lots of money flowing out of Japan, and Singapore is 1 possible destination - to be parked in stocks and properties.

If you look at past trends, the market actually expect Japanese to repatriate their fund back to their country in time of crisis. They don't have a cut and run culture in Japan.

[teddybear]

But do you see Japanese all flying back to Japan to receive their super heavy dose of nuclear radiation which confirm will get cancer? They don't fly fly back means "cut and run"? Now I heard many rich Japanese going overseas to avoid the disaster and radiation first.

If you look at past trends, the market actually expect Japanese to repatriate their fund back to their country in time of crisis. They don't have a cut and run culture in Japan.

[avo7007]

But do you see Japanese all flying back to Japan to receive their super heavy dose of nuclear radiation which confirm will get cancer? They don't fly fly back means "cut and run"? Now I heard many rich Japanese going overseas to avoid the disaster and radiation first.

I said they will repatriate their funds back, and not themself. FYI Nikkei just shot up 6.4% in early trade today; radiation or no radiation.

[DC33_2008]

It has to go up after what happen yesterday. Who knows? It may drop again shortly.

I said they will repatriate their funds back, and not themself. FYI Nikkei just shot up 6.4% in early trade today; radiation or no radiation.

[louisebrown]

But do you see Japanese all flying back to Japan to receive their super heavy dose of nuclear radiation which confirm will get cancer? They don't fly fly back means "cut and run"? Now I heard many rich Japanese going overseas to avoid the disaster and radiation first.

You have become a boil in this forum.

[devilplate]

any apply the HP IPO? wif japan crisis....duno fri will green anot leh

[bargain hunter]

thought application is over? balloting announcement was already out last nite i think. anyway, convert forex to and fro already lose money.

any apply the HP IPO? wif japan crisis....duno fri will green anot leh

[devilplate]

thought application is over? balloting announcement was already out last nite i think. anyway, convert forex to and fro already lose money.

meaning u din apply lor...lucky u....

i got over den expected lots leh....now worried instead of happy

[bargain hunter]

i guess the ipo manager will support near the ipo price. else very malu for li ka chng.

meaning u din apply lor...lucky u....

i got over den expected lots leh....now worried instead of happy

[devilplate]

i guess the ipo manager will support near the ipo price. else very malu for li ka chng.

i can only hope for the best liao....gona try throw away some...too many lots..

[stalingrad]

BT reported today that the cooling measures seem to have had greater effects on CCR condos than OCR condos? only a tiny few condos sold in Feb. are in CCR.

wonder whether some of you owners of multiple properties in CCR have anything to say to confirm to to repute that report.

[devilplate]

BT reported today that the cooling measures seem to have had greater effects on CCR condos than OCR condos? only a tiny few condos sold in Feb. are in CCR.

wonder whether some of you owners of multiple properties in CCR have anything to say to confirm to to repute that report.

i haf CCR ppty but i aso say last rd of measures gona affect CCR most....simply bcoz rich foreigners will be super turned off.....u see hopeful....just sold one of his CCR ppty instead of buying one more

[hopeful]

i haf CCR ppty but i aso say last rd of measures gona affect CCR most....simply bcoz rich foreigners will be super turned off.....u see hopeful....just sold one of his CCR ppty instead of buying one more

Huh? I buy and sell within a cycle. Now is midway already, so naturally I sell. But I sell 1 year earlier than expected, original intention to start selling in beginning 2012. Rental really lousy for RV area. Depending on rental, may start selling MPR earlier than planned also.

I would say CCR lousy this cycle. Not as good as previous cycle. But that's life. Can't win big all the time. This cycle, I win small only .

[stalingrad]

Huh? I buy and sell within a cycle. Now is midway already, so naturally I sell. But I sell 1 year earlier than expected, original intention to start selling in beginning 2012. Rental really lousy for RV area. Depending on rental, may start selling MPR earlier than planned also.

I would say CCR lousy this cycle. Not as good as previous cycle. But that's life. Can't win big all the time. This cycle, I win small only .

You lucky dude. You did the right thing by selling. Obviously, talking or getting into a shouting match with people like me have done you a lot of good. I have long said that CCR condos are dead meat. some ignore me. and some including you may have listened to me.

[devilplate]

Huh? I buy and sell within a cycle. Now is midway already, so naturally I sell. But I sell 1 year earlier than expected, original intention to start selling in beginning 2012. Rental really lousy for RV area. Depending on rental, may start selling MPR earlier than planned also.

I would say CCR lousy this cycle. Not as good as previous cycle. But that's life. Can't win big all the time. This cycle, I win small only .

wat i mean is....u r definitely not gg to buy one more as it will get slammed with 4yrs SSD(cannot sell within this cycle liao) and many foreigners actually practise hit/run strategy nowadays....

[phantom_opera]

I tot D Leedon selling very well, 300 units at the end of Feb 2011 ....

[stalingrad]

I tot D Leedon selling very well, 300 units at the end of Feb 2011 ....

probably all sold to japanese that were informed by god in their dreams that something bad would happen to their country.

[devilplate]

I tot D Leedon selling very well, 300 units at the end of Feb 2011 ....

but not for the mth of feb rite.....38units sold

[hopeful]

wat i mean is....u r definitely not gg to buy one more as it will get slammed with 4yrs SSD(cannot sell within this cycle liao) and many foreigners actually practise hit/run strategy nowadays....

Nothing to do with SSD.
Show hand in 2009 so no more funds already (actually have reserve funds to cover 3-4 year repayment without need for rental for each condo, but not going to touch that). Sorry I am that conservative.

Even without SSD, most probably upside only for 2 years before market down in 2013-2015. Each buy-sell transaction expensive, so not worth the effort.

Singapore government quite predictable. When market down, loosen restrictions. When market up for some time, tighten restrictions.

[phantom_opera]

but not for the mth of feb rite.....38units sold

Cannot judge based on Feb, rich people in China, HK, Taiwan and Singapore all busy with CNY and high floors D Leedon asking very high psf. Only HDB upgraders will go showflat at this time

I am actually quite optimistic on CCR purely based on US technical strength exhibited in the stock market provided this Japan nuclear plant crisis is contained.

[devilplate]

Cannot judge based on Feb, rich people in China, HK, Taiwan and Singapore all busy with CNY. Only HDB upgraders will go showflat at this time

hopefully they will do well in March lor...no more excuses rite and their marketing campaign was like crazy....haha....if poor sales really Malu big time...

any sales update for Dleedon particularly for this mth? tat CCR got contribute one 2bedder unit anot? hehe

oh ya...if poor sales can say due to nuclear leak