RCR or not, all Huat ah!!!
Junior
RCR or not, all Huat ah!!!
Go for Smallest Unit
good year...
started with recession in 09...
stunning recovery in 10...
and so many hopefuls expecting a crash in 11... coe to crash first, then follow by sti.. then only property got chance.
Senior
What is the likelihood (%) of a crash in 2011?
Junior
I heard the end of "Rat" year is usually is beginning of recession, "bull" year is always the worst year (not bull at all!), Tiger is always the recovery year (even though people always say Tiger year will die).... looks like its true after all
Originally Posted by kingkong1984
Senior
If OCR properties not investment grade, how do you explain first owners at centris making 5xxpsf and caspian owners making 4xxpsf in one year? If you are offered a condo in serangoon for 3xx-4xxpsf as opposed to an orchard condo for 4000psf, which do you think is a sounder investment to an investor?Been there before but experience tells me that they are not "investment grade" especially with Govt holding so much free empty OCR land.
Global recession is coming....
Please wait for a few cycles over say 30 years then may be you will understand.
$5xx psf profit? So low? Come on!
Senior
4xx-5xxpsf are returns after one or two years not ten years. If you call yourself an investor, you look at roi in that one year and compare. If all your investments earn you a1k psf profit a year, then maybe you have the right to look down on ocr investment properties otherwise you can't say ocr properties are not investment grade. If govt chooses to boost ocr prices coupled with feo factor, you will just be a voice in the windPlease wait for a few cycles over say 30 years then may be you will understand.
$5xx psf profit? So low? Come on!
Global recession is coming....
Let's be realistic. The Govt owns almost all of the free standing empty OCR lands. You expect them to boost OCR prices by not selling any land when there is strong demand for own residential stay? OCR properties are just for own residential stays, that is it, not investment grade over long term.
Like FEO? They own the FH land status and sell you 99LH lease? Yes, in this respect both are same same.
Newbie
Latest URA index:-
CCR - 200% above Q4'1998 price
RCR - 180% above Q4'1998 price
OCR - 178% above Q4'1998 price
NB: Index Q4'98 = 100
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2011/pr11-01b.pdf
Looks like no more cooling measures as long as quarterly increases is less than 3%
can someone teach please...
i see ccr index way above rcr and ocr, that means the psf in ccr is higher than the other 2.
Then i see q1-09, ocr above rcr, does that mean that time, price of ocr is higher than rcr ? i dun remember any unit in eg. citylights cheaper than kovan melody leh ?
Emeritus Senior
I find the term 'investment grade' interesting. What are the factors influencing something like that? Livability, desirability perhaps? With district lines blurring, no point to pit 'ccr' vs 'ocr' - those are already archaic terms. Gotta live in the present.Let's be realistic. The Govt owns almost all of the free standing empty OCR lands. You expect them to boost OCR prices by not selling any land when there is strong demand for own residential stay? OCR properties are just for own residential stays, that is it, not investment grade over long term.
Like FEO? They own the FH land status and sell you 99LH lease? Yes, in this respect both are same same.
To many, just singapore itself, being so tiny (why decimate a small enough place? Finding quarks?), is a giant piece of prime estate - owning a piece of it will be enough. Saying 'I own property in singapore' is prestigious than saying 'I own property in Butterworth' or 'I own property in Jakarta'
Junior
The index does not tell u relative prices. even the experts experts understand the index wrongly. The index just merely says within each district, how much has the price increase relative to 4Q'1998?
This means on average, a CCR property has increased 200% relative to itself in 4Q'1998. A CCR property that cost 800psf in 4Q1998 would be $1600psf (x 200%) today. Similarly a RCR property that cost say 500psf in 4Q1998 would be worth 900psf (x 180%) today.
At a certain point in time, OCR did increase faster than RCR but RCR caught up again. The index does not tell relative prices across districts. Even many property experts do not understand the index and anyhow comment "peak here peak there" and anyhow conclude CCR has not peaked when the index doesn't tell relative prices at all!
In short, the index does not tell PSF. It just says how much a property increase relative to 4Q'1998. CCR obviously has risen the most - contrary to how the incompetent "experts" have been interpreting....
Global recession is coming....
I think you have to be realistic. You expect everywhere in Singapore property prices to be >$3000 psf? I would hope that this is so but the mass market OCR property prices are meant for own-stay and the prices are determined by the affordability of people buying them. Unless all these people earn so much as to be able to afford >$3000 psf otherwise the answer is obvious.
Go for Smallest Unit
I use simple terms. A OCR is a Toyota, number one in sale volume, a RCR is a vw, catching up and better performance. A CCR is a Porsche, few deals. A gcb will be a lambo or rolls Royce. Very expansive yes, deals are even fewer.
Which is a better bet? Your choice lah.
Junior
Really bad analogy. Like that lambo sure run faster one mah! In any case, the quality difference between the different regions is not even apparent nowadays. But for performance cars, it hell of a difference.
Junior
these are indexes and therefore don't paint a full picture. west coast is part of OCR, but I am sure condos in west coast have appreciate much more in value than 78%. the growth rate is probably 120% since 1998.Latest URA index:-
CCR - 200% above Q4'1998 price
RCR - 180% above Q4'1998 price
OCR - 178% above Q4'1998 price
NB: Index Q4'98 = 100
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2011/pr11-01b.pdf
Looks like no more cooling measures as long as quarterly increases is less than 3%
On the other hand, condos in the hume probably have grown much less, probably just 50%.
Go for Smallest Unit
Yup, could be better. Essence is you pay for wat u get. But if u paid lambo price for a Toyota, gd luck.
Newbie
ic, understand now... 4Q98, all 3(ccr, rcr, ocr) start from index 100 (although at that time, the psf of the 3 were not equal).
Go for Smallest Unit
It's based on actual done deals. Beware, a few freak deals in CCR will paint a wrong picture. Easy to jack up there.
Senior
bro, don't have to talk about other people's investment. Let me use the regent heights unit i bought 1 week ago for analysis. I bought my 1163sf 3 bedder for 770k with superb orientation and views and on very high floor. Look at what people are advertising now for a 2 bedder (http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...egent-heights). If This unit is indeed sold for 800k (28k less than the price advertised), that will act as a baseline for my larger 3 bedroom unit to sell at 880k or more. If I were to relaunch my unit for sale in the market at 880k (have checked with UOB that can support 8xxk), that will be 105k gross profit (not counting other cost yet). that may not be a lot to you in absolute terms, but that is 67% gross return on investment of 20% downpayment, not in 1 year, but in less than 1 month. Would you consider an ROI of more than 60% in 1 month lousy? I do not intend to sell even though my latest investment has appreciated in value in 1 week by 13.5%, as rental yield of 4.9% is a more attractive proposition to me.
Let's be realistic. The Govt owns almost all of the free standing empty OCR lands. You expect them to boost OCR prices by not selling any land when there is strong demand for own residential stay? OCR properties are just for own residential stays, that is it, not investment grade over long term.
Like FEO? They own the FH land status and sell you 99LH lease? Yes, in this respect both are same same.
Deepsea
V@K i heard from a lady distributing flyers outside Nex, she said only left PH the rest all taken.notice i was away from the forum last week? i was so busy last week.ok lah, want to push, push together lah? hahaha...oxley game still early lah, at least 2 launches (vibes @ kovan and loft @ holland) these few months and 3 more before june.
L@H - There is a washer point but i can't the washer in the floorplan (except stack 09 &10) so is there a washer? Or using bar fridge stack on top of washer? Tenants are wearing disposable clothes or Landlord must throw in a washer board. haahaa. This mm thingy is getting a bit extreme, like a cell.
Senior
hahaha, that's why oxley chiong. i bot oxley shares to hedge the MM craze which i still refuse to be a part of.maybe no washer = all bring clothes to laundry shop to wash? i aunt rented out a unit somewhere partially furnished and the single german tenant said fridge can liao, no need washer.
V@K i heard from a lady distributing flyers outside Nex, she said only left PH the rest all taken.
L@H - There is a washer point but i can't the washer in the floorplan (except stack 09 &10) so is there a washer? Or using bar fridge stack on top of washer? Tenants are wearing disposable clothes or Landlord must throw in a washer board. haahaa. This mm thingy is getting a bit extreme, like a cell.
Go for Smallest Unit
We are talking a hotel like lifestyle, not a hdb stayer mindset.
Emeritus Senior
I think your comment applies to yourself. I never once said OCR can hit past 3000psf. When we talk about convergence of prices, that does not imply OCR will catch up with CCR. What I see happening now (and which I feel will continue to last) is a falling of the premium CCR has over RCR and OCR. Again, this is due to decreasing significance of the district demarcation zones - in the past, the premium CCR has over OCR could be 300%. Now it could be 200% or even less.I think you have to be realistic. You expect everywhere in Singapore property prices to be >$3000 psf? I would hope that this is so but the mass market OCR property prices are meant for own-stay and the prices are determined by the affordability of people buying them. Unless all these people earn so much as to be able to afford >$3000 psf otherwise the answer is obvious.
If I am an investor from overseas with some hot money to burn, would I choose a 1000sq ft apartment at 2500psf (knowing that there are many units still unsold) or would I get 3 3-bedders with great views of greenery in, say District 23? Or even 2 penthouses for that matter.
Senior
if i am an investor from oversea with money to burn .. i wont consider D23 either
MBS will be first choice .. then maybe Reflections , sentosa
probably not even D9/10 ...D11 is out as well
Exalted
tats y spread ur eggs into diff locations....
Senior
I spoke to an agent last time and he told me those rich indonesian investors snapped up units at centris and various condos in the suburbs apart from condos in the ccr. These investors are astute and they buy a basket of properties in various locations around or island, not just in prime districts
Senior
thats becos they already have alot in the prime districts .. so buy some outside ccr
as a new investor coming in for first time i really doubt they would go outside ccr for their first investment
Junior
Actually i know of some Indonesians preferring to invest in mass/mid than luxury now. Very surprised as well.
Global recession is coming....
There are a few things you didn't consider:
1) This is your first property? Otherwise why down payment is 20% and not 30%? So ROI much lower (also have not considered costs as in (2)). If so, first and only property how to be for investment & not for own stay?
2) You have to consider that if you sell:
+ Legal fees $3000+
+ buyer stamp duty 3%
+ seller stamp duty 3% (if sell within 1 year)
+ agent fee 1%
3) For mass market properties, smaller unit always higher $PSF. So you can't take 2-rm $PSF for comparison. Also, their unit may be renovated (hence can sell at higher price) while yours aren't.
4) Advertised is just that - "advertised". Wait till you sell at that price first.
5) You think you hold 20 years still got value?
6) Built by FEO in 1997(?), too many rumours about poor quality (can't prove real or not but sure have effect on buyers' mentality towards the estate) and don't think people will buy at premium from you. Don't think the rental yield can sustain going forward?
7) Too many people make money from 1 deal and subsequently lose bigger money in other deals (not to mention your profit is not already in the bag since you have not sold. To sell, you need to incur all the costs mentioned in (2)). Too early to trumpet yet.
8) Govt still have lots of land in Bukit Batok / HillView / Upper Bukit Timah / Bukit Panjang areas, supply can be quite huge even if price rises, so nett can't expect big price increase. MRT effect already factored in.
Global recession is coming....
UOB KayHian
Property – Singapore
Greater divergence ahead between private and public housing
What’s New
• Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) flash estimates indicate that
private home prices increased 2.7% qoq in 4Q10, hitting another all-time
high of 194.8. The pace of increase was slightly lower than the 2.9% qoq
increase in 3Q10. For 2010, the price index as a whole rose 17.6% with
prices rebounding 48% from the bottom of 2Q09. Public housing prices
advanced at a slower pace of 2.4% qoq in 4Q10 compared to 4% qoq in
the previous quarter.
Action
• The signs of stabilisation in the public housing segment will ease the
mounting policy pressure. However, we prefer exposure to the high-end
segment which is less susceptible to government measures and the price
growth is expected to continue outpacing the mass and mid-tier
segments. Wing Tai is our top pick for the high-end segment.
Essentials
• High-end segment price increase outpaces other segments. During
4Q10, prices in high-end rose 2.3% qoq, outpacing the 1.7% and 1.6%
qoq increase in the mid- and mass market segments respectively. Prices
in the mass, mid- and high-end segment are currently 19%, 11% and 2%
above 2008 peak levels. For 2011, we expect the high-end segment
prices to continue outpacing the mass/mid-tier segments, rising 8-10%
compared to flattish growth for the other segments. Further price
increases in the mass market segment are capped by affordability
constraints which are creeping back to the long-term average of 46%
(43% in 3Q10) despite the extremely low interest rate environment.
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