Property market sentiments 2011

[hopeful]

HDB is like a stock with someone holding a veto Golden share.
HDB yield is high for many reasons - you own only the space, not the land. Ownership is restricted and rental is subject to policy changes anytime.

On the other end, is FH in CCR - those can have yields just straddling mortgage rates as these are where the big boys play.

What is the difference between HDB and LH condos?
Since both of them are leases.
buy HDB, lease flat for 99yrs? buy LH condo, lease building and land for 99years?
Any practical difference in terms of ownership?

[Regulators]

for retail space, i would avoid holland road shopping centre. That place is practically dead on weekends and they close very early as well. If they don't spruce up the place and extend the opening hours, with or without the MRT there makes no dif. Lucky Plaza and Far East can consider, but very expensive now.

For retail try Lucky Plaza or Far East in Orchard
Or Holland Road Shopping Centre in HV for D10.
Freehold/Strata titled.

[devilplate]

What is the difference between HDB and LH condos?
Since both of them are leases.
buy HDB, lease flat for 99yrs? buy LH condo, lease building and land for 99years?
Any practical difference in terms of ownership?

for HDB owners....they r called lessee.....strictly speaking...they rent it from HDB for 99yrs only

99LH condo, u own the land for 99yrs....can sell enbloc to developer

[Regulators]

yes. For LH HDB, govt can top up the lease as and when they want. It would be impractical for the govt tear down 80% of HDB flats closer to 99yr so i believe they will rather top up the lease. For LH condos, the only option is en bloc when the condo gets too old. I have yet to come across a condo whereby all the owners vote to top up the lease back to 99yr again. Not forgetting the history of singapore is on 45 yrs so there is a lot to be seen.

What is the difference between HDB and LH condos?
Since both of them are leases.
buy HDB, lease flat for 99yrs? buy LH condo, lease building and land for 99years?
Any practical difference in terms of ownership?

[blackfire]

How come nobody chasing industrial or shophouses or retail lots properties since they have higher yields? not withstanding that is a residential property forum.
In what situation does a person sell his HDB flat? Since rental yield is the highest of all residential properties?
So is that one reason why HDB flats are going up and up since yield is so high.

Commercial and Industrial properties do often better yield and good investments. I would recommend to those who own numerous residential properties to diversify their investment to such properties. My personal favorite is coffeeshops. However, one must bear in mind, that commercial and industrial properties are a total different asset class as compared to residential. The nature, the risk involved, tenant profile are very different from residential. Your tenants are businessmen who are more adverse to economical cycle. Bank charge higher interest rates, pay GST (unless u buy under a pte ltd) , no CPF and loan approval is strict with lower LTV. Also banks more likely to ask for top up than residentials. Such investment are not for beginners or with no holding power unless for your own business use.

[teddybear]

So what conclusion can you draw? I see that the OCR property price is waiting for a pin to drop and prick the balloon (eh, 'bubble' - that is what Govt called it since introducing countless cooling measures, the last one on 30 Aug 2010), just a matter of time. Illusion of high yield high gain can only last so long

hahahaha

den y OCR increased so much since 2008??? high yield+high gain leh...u missed it rite....too bad for u

[hopeful]

yes. For LH HDB, govt can top up the lease as and when they want. It would be impractical for the govt tear down 80% of HDB flats closer to 99yr so i believe they will rather top up the lease. For LH condos, the only option is en bloc when the condo gets too old. I have yet to come across a condo whereby all the owners vote to top up the lease back to 99yr again. Not forgetting the history of singapore is on 45 yrs so there is a lot to be seen.

Hmmm, that is a ticking time bomb isn't it. HDB just celebrated 1mil flats built last December.
So in HDB's case, who pay for the top up lease? Can residents reject? Just like upgrading exercise?

This is just like an oil palm plantation.
Initially, companies do the land clearing and plant all the trees within a period of 3 years, as fast as possible.
However, when it is time to replanting, companies don't cut down and plant all the trees at the same time, as time to harvest is about 3 years, and no income for the next 3 years.
Instead as trees approached 25 years old, 5-10% of the trees are cut down and replanted. So cash flow is not much affected.
I suspect the same will be done for HDB flats, maybe small % is demolished every year.

[Regulators]

As of now, you just have to concede defeat

So what conclusion can you draw? I see that the OCR property price is waiting for a pin to drop and prick the balloon (eh, 'bubble' - that is what Govt called it since introducing countless cooling measures, the last one on 30 Aug 2010), just a matter of time. Illusion of high yield high gain can only last so long

[stalingrad]

So what conclusion can you draw? I see that the OCR property price is waiting for a pin to drop and prick the balloon (eh, 'bubble' - that is what Govt called it since introducing countless cooling measures, the last one on 30 Aug 2010), just a matter of time. Illusion of high yield high gain can only last so long

why is it an illusion? if the government's measures cause the OCR prices to drop, wouldn't that cause the yield to go even higher?

[teddybear]

Is investing so simple as lower price means higher yield? Higher yield don't guarantee higher profit! No wonder that you are not-CCR investor. If all CCR property buyers believe this way, there will not be any CCR property buyer! Is there any wonder that CCR buyers/owners are always so rich? No because they understand the above that you don't.

why is it an illusion? if the government's measures cause the OCR prices to drop, wouldn't that cause the yield to go even higher?

[hopeful]

why is it an illusion? if the government's measures cause the OCR prices to drop, wouldn't that cause the yield to go even higher?

at current rental rates maybe, but for new tenants? would new tenants pay higher rental?
So prices drop good or not good for current owners? future owners?

[hopeful]

Is investing so simple as lower price means higher yield? Higher yield don't guarantee higher profit! No wonder that you are not-CCR investor. If all CCR property buyers believe this way, there will not be any CCR property buyer! Is there any wonder that CCR buyers/owners are always so rich? No because they understand the above that you don't.

Teddybear, be careful about cause and effect.
Buyers become rich after they buy and sell CCR
or buyers because they are already rich, can buy CCR.

[orange]

Hdb celebrated 1 millionth flat built.

Soon they will be celebrating the first $1m flat sold.

Can't see why they would be even half-serious about clamping down on property prices. High prices are to their interests after all, as they know that demand is very much still there and there are many who would readily pay for it. Whether they are stupid or just simply too rich, up to you to decide.

The men behind the scenes are probably clapping mr mah bow tan on the back, despite the public show of regret.

So much hypocrisy, all of it is to please that vocal minority, who aren't complaining now.

[stalingrad]

at current rental rates maybe, but for new tenants? would new tenants pay higher rental?
So prices drop good or not good for current owners? future owners?

price drops will not be good for current owners, of course. but that is not my point. my point is that the rental yield is real, and will be even more real if the prices drop.

I was just pulling teddy's chain. His arguments are so full of holes, they look like cheese to me.

[orange]

Yuck! You pulled some dick cheese off his chain!

[teddybear]

Cause - I am teaching people from my experience.
Effect - I got cursed by some?
For good karma, I still have to say the truth of what I believe in and from my experience. If I keep quiet despite all the fallacies being put forward by those others that curse me then may be I will be accumulating bad karma? (their cursing will has no effect because good karma will prevail)

Your 2 statements feed into each other: so buy CCR become richer, richer can buy more CCR, buy more and more become richer and richer.................(repeat)...............

Teddybear, be careful about cause and effect.
Buyers become rich after they buy and sell CCR
or buyers because they are already rich, can buy CCR.

[hopeful]

for HDB owners....they r called lessee.....strictly speaking...they rent it from HDB for 99yrs only

99LH condo, u own the land for 99yrs....can sell enbloc to developer

Besides ability to enbloc, is there any practical difference between HDB and LH.
Sorry, being a foreigner, not very sure of what is difference.

In Indonesia, if you rent out a shophouse for 2 years. You get cash 2 years worth of rental straightaway and not month-by-month or year-by-year.
So it seems to me that Singaporeans are paying out rental for 99year lumpsum at the beginning of the 99 year rental for a HDB flat? And since it is "rental", cannot do much of anything without the owners' (HDB) permission?

For LH, owners if they want to, can tear down and built a new condo in place, even if only 50years left on the lease?
For HDB, no such ability?

[blackfire]

Hdb celebrated 1 millionth flat built.

Soon they will be celebrating the first $1m flat sold.

Can't see why they would be even half-serious about clamping down on property prices. High prices are to their interests after all, as they know that demand is very much still there and there are many who would readily pay for it. Whether they are stupid or just simply too rich, up to you to decide.

The men behind the scenes are probably clapping mr mah bow tan on the back, despite the public show of regret.

So much hypocrisy, all of it is to please that vocal minority, who aren't complaining now.

My opinon is that the greatest and the smartest thing the Singapore govt has done is the creation of HDB. With HDB, everyone in Singapore has a roof over their head, no slums or squatters in Singapore , unlike everywhere else in the world. It is seriously a feat to house 80% of the population in public housing, nobody needs to live in the streets in Singapore. This is really amazing and have to give credit to HDB.

Years ago, govt committed to make HDB an appreciating assets for retirement,etc, especially for the lower income group. This decision makes HDB policies highly politically since. It is very difficult to make the flat prices to rise continuously, and yet make it affordable for everyone. The whole economy has to keep expanding. Questions on govt subsidies, etc etc also arises. HDB dwellers also afraid to vote of oppositions in case their HDB estates are neglected. HDB has over years evolved to be a political tool and not just an assets or simply a basic home. As for existing properties owners, u certainly hope that the govt will continue to protect the HDB prices, if not the domino effect on the private properties here can be very serious, bearing in mind the HDB is the biggest landlord in Singapore.

[august]

My opinon is that the greatest and the smartest thing the Singapore govt has done is the creation of HDB. With HDB, everyone in Singapore has a roof over their head, no slums or squatters in Singapore , unlike everywhere else in the world. It is seriously a feat to house 80% of the population in public housing, nobody needs to live in the streets in Singapore. This is really amazing and have to give credit to HDB.

Years ago, govt committed to make HDB an appreciating assets for retirement,etc, especially for the lower income group. This decision makes HDB policies highly politically since. It is very difficult to make the flat prices to rise continuously, and yet make it affordable for everyone. The whole economy has to keep expanding. Questions on govt subsidies, etc etc also arises. HDB dwellers also afraid to vote of oppositions in case their HDB estates are neglected. HDB has over years evolved to be a political tool and not just an assets or simply a basic home. As for existing properties owners, u certainly hope that the govt will continue to protect the HDB prices, if not the domino effect on the private properties here can be very serious, bearing in mind the HDB is the biggest landlord in Singapore.

80% of population sounds impressive, but the numbers are not huge compared to other countries since Spore has a small population.

everything is not that impressive once u realise a city state is way easier to govern than a country.

i certainly dun think the current management deserve any credit at all

[land118]

[quote=blackfire]My opinon is that the greatest and the smartest thing the Singapore govt has done is the creation of HDB. With HDB, everyone in Singapore has a roof over their head, no slums or squatters in Singapore , unlike everywhere else in the world. It is seriously a feat to house 80% of the population in public housing, nobody needs to live in the streets in Singapore. This is really amazing and have to give credit to HDB.
...quote] We are lucky that as citizens, we have a chance to apply for HDB flats, unlike many of the less fortunate in Africa of many other parts of the world, where they literally use anything they can find to have a shelter over their heads....

[hopeful]

80% of population sounds impressive, but the numbers are not huge compared to other countries since Spore has a small population.

everything is not that impressive once u realise a city state is way easier to govern than a country.

i certainly dun think the current management deserve any credit at all

What are the comparables to Singapore?
Monaco? HK? Lichstentein?

[blackfire]

[quote=land118]

My opinon is that the greatest and the smartest thing the Singapore govt has done is the creation of HDB. With HDB, everyone in Singapore has a roof over their head, no slums or squatters in Singapore , unlike everywhere else in the world. It is seriously a feat to house 80% of the population in public housing, nobody needs to live in the streets in Singapore. This is really amazing and have to give credit to HDB.
...quote] We are lucky that as citizens, we have a chance to apply for HDB flats, unlike many of the less fortunate in Africa of many other parts of the world, where they literally use anything they can find to have a shelter over their heads....

I would said not just Africa, but practically in almost every country and city in the world, developed, developed or not developed, you will certainly find homeless people on the streets, whereas in Singapore it is very rare.

HDB has also made our govt job very easy. Urban planning can be done easily by locating or relocating the residents in accordance to the govt's plan. The flats and surrounding are also very well kept which make residents wonder if the MP were to change, will things be different.

Imagine Singapore without HDB. I guess most likely we would be like central London, Shanghai or Tokyo, whereby most people cannot afford their own home. On the other hand, there maybe more oppositions in the parliament, as most voters will no longer concern about preserving the value of their HDBs.

[azeoprop]

Wow! Its only 5th Jan 2011 and we are at page 8 liaoz haa haa....

[EBD]

What is the difference between HDB and LH condos?
Since both of them are leases.
buy HDB, lease flat for 99yrs? buy LH condo, lease building and land for 99years?
Any practical difference in terms of ownership?

HDB rule can be changed anytime. Condo seems less meddling by govt. , but is still open to it by changing deposit amount.

[sh]

Is investing so simple as lower price means higher yield? Higher yield don't guarantee higher profit! No wonder that you are not-CCR investor. If all CCR property buyers believe this way, there will not be any CCR property buyer! Is there any wonder that CCR buyers/owners are always so rich? No because they understand the above that you don't.

errr... this CCR investor also believes in high yield hence CCR MMs...

I look at high yield as a criteria for investing for a simple reason.

High current yield is like a bird at hand. it is real.

Potential capital gain is like 2 birds in the bush.

I rather have the bird at hand.

Who is to say that high yielding properties will have less potential capital gain potential? Property prices generally move in tandem, regardless of yield.

So, I like to have my cake and eat it too

[Regulators]

i think this CCR MM investor is sweating when he thinks of what kind of yield he will be getting for his MM unit. As he waits indefinitely for his 1000psf increase in his property price, others are already realising gains in OCR.

errr... this CCR investor also believes in high yield hence CCR MMs...

I look at high yield as a criteria for investing for a simple reason.

High current yield is like a bird at hand. it is real.

Potential capital gain is like 2 birds in the bush.

I rather have the bird at hand.

Who is to say that high yielding properties will have less potential capital gain potential? Property prices generally move in tandem, regardless of yield.

So, I like to have my cake and eat it too

[sh]

i think this CCR MM investor is sweating when he thinks of what kind of yield he will be getting for his MM unit. As he waits indefinitely for his 1000psf increase in his property price, others are already realising gains in OCR.

This CCR MM investor is happy with the yield he is getting.

What's to say that he hasn't benefited from gains?

If you buy a unit trust. There is always a disclaimer that says "past performance is not a indication of future performance". The same applies for property.

[Regulators]

he is disgruntled that OCR has witnessed some phenomenal growth in 2010 while the growth of his property in the CCR is not seeing as much. Human nature to feel that way so i understand

This CCR MM investor is happy with the yield he is getting.

What's to say that he hasn't benefited from gains?

If you buy a unit trust. There is always a disclaimer that says "past performance is not a indication of future performance". The same applies for property.

[sh]

he is disgruntled that OCR has witnessed some phenomenal growth in 2010 while the growth of his property in the CCR is not seeing as much. Human nature to feel that way so i understand

Actually, he just acquired his CCR MM, so he is happy that CCR hasn't "witnessed phenomenal growth" yet

[Regulators]

CCR MM should be quite easy to rent out, but MM in the OCR might have some problems. Anyway, when CCR starts to move, it should bring up the general property market in singapore.

Actually, he just acquired his CCR MM, so he is happy that CCR hasn't "witnessed phenomenal growth" yet