Property market sentiments 2011

[rattydrama]

My take is 2011 property will move a little, not much, due to the much anticipated land sales. Those property near MRTs and good amenities will have a niche advantage from the rest. The price gap between CCR and OCR narrowing and likely between old and new developments within the same vicinity.

It will also depend on the introduction of new policies by the government after the election. Will we have an influx of PRs? If yes, it will be a good news to investors.

Share your thoughts.

[devilplate]

i want to see silver, oil related stocks and my ppty FLY

[ymgsterling]

Everybody huat in 2011!

[Wild Falcon]

My predictions:-

1) Property - upside will be capped - for all districts.

2) District lines get blurred - investors become more savvy and discerning, i.e. investments will be based on the attributes and development potential of an area and new transportation nodes/regional centers and not purely based on district numbers.

3) CCR and OCR medium term performance - I don't think prices will diverge, i.e. I don't think CCR will have runaway prices while OCR crash. Looking at the developers new launch pricing, it is pretty clear that developers believe PSF is converging. In my mind, developers pricing is always a "futures" pricing based on best available information. If developers "futures pricing" indicate that prices are expected to converge for new launches that will TOP 3 years later, I believe the same will apply to resale, i.e. resale in OCR and the resale in CCR will converge over time in the medium term.

4) CCR and OCR short term performance - The performance in the immediate 1 year will depend on how much "foreign" hot monies come into SG property. If lots of foreign hot monies flow into SG property, then CCR may outperform in the short term.

[kane]

LTV of 60% to be introduced is my guess. Resale prices likely to continue tracking inflation rate.

[kingkong1984]

No new cooling measures, just more and more hdbs and ec plus OCR condos

[hopeful]

You remembered SM Goh speech?
Govt welcome foreign investors to buy property.
park money in Singapore, they stay overseas, don't contribute to overpopulation, basically foreign investors buying space in the sky.
Invest money in physical property is different from hot money is stocks. So far property is outperforming the stock market.

[Squall8888]

My guess is that CCR will start moving. I see many transactions done in Dec and that reflects a good increase. Just wait for caveats. OCR also not bad but mass market, hmmm

Government will probably not step in if mass market remains the way it is now..

[devilplate]

My guess is that CCR will start moving. I see many transactions done in Dec and that reflects a good increase. Just wait for caveats. OCR also not bad but mass market, hmmm

Government will probably not step in if mass market remains the way it is now..

STI to outperform PPI

[azeoprop]

If no global crisis or korean war happens, I think prices will still move up. 2011 is when many people get fat bonus from the record growth year of 2010....more cash rich people around!

[Laguna]

My readings
1. Sg Govt is very concerned about hot money flow in, as such, more cooling measures likely to take place. LTV possible would be reduced for second and third properties.
2. Property market will up at a very much slower pace
3. Fundamental remains good,
4. US probably will turn around this year, there could be one or more QE
5. Growth in China will slow down, due to the currency war



What shall the best yield investment now ?
read Chinese paper last week on the possible over supply of EC, if recall correctly, when EC came into market last two rounds, then property market headed south

[devilplate]

My readings
1. Sg Govt is very concerned about hot money flow in, as such, more cooling measures likely to take place. LTV possible would be reduced for second and third properties.
2. Property market will up at a very much slower pace
3. Fundamental remains good,
4. US probably will turn around this year, there could be one or more QE
5. Growth in China will slow down, due to the currency war



What shall the best yield investment now ?
read Chinese paper last week on the possible over supply of EC, if recall correctly, when EC came into market last two rounds, then property market headed south

last round, EC came in too late....govt learnt their lesson....so push ECs into market much earlier this rd

[devilplate]

STI chiong now!

most experts saying STI to hit 3500-3600pts this yr...so conservative....or they mean 3500pts by 1st half of 2011?

[august]

LTV of 60% to be introduced is my guess. Resale prices likely to continue tracking inflation rate.

my guess only after election and track china's measures

[Wild Falcon]

LTV of 60% should be targeted at second property and beyond, and exceptions should be given to genuine HDB upgraders. I hope more demand side measures and stop flooding the market with supply. A lot of CCR condos are going to TOP empty and some have dropped prices (e.g. Paterson Suites) to move units (as reported not too long ago) and if more supply comes on board, the market may not be able to absorb.

my guess only after election and track china's measures

[teddybear]

That is very funny! You are talking about Govt flooding the market with supply and then say CCR prices affected because cannot absorb the supply? By the way, the Govt has so far not released a single piece of residential land in CCR. All residential lands sold by Govt falls in OCR. Remember, the Govt still has more than enough land in OCR to supply >2m residential OCR units! Ops! You scare of supply side measure? Then you should worry about the prices of OCR properties!!

LTV of 60% should be targeted at second property and beyond, and exceptions should be given to genuine HDB upgraders. I hope more demand side measures and stop flooding the market with supply. A lot of CCR condos are going to TOP empty and some have dropped prices (e.g. Paterson Suites) to move units (as reported not too long ago) and if more supply comes on board, the market may not be able to absorb.

[devilplate]

That is very funny! You are talking about Govt flooding the market with supply and then say CCR prices affected because cannot absorb the supply? By the way, the Govt has so far not released a single piece of residential land in CCR. All residential lands sold by Govt falls in OCR. Remember, the Govt still has more than enough land in OCR to supply >2m residential OCR units! Ops! You scare of supply side measure? Then you should worry about the prices of OCR properties!!

hey bear, u nvr owned a RCR/OCR ppty in ur entire life?

[Laguna]

was told that NV residences has dropped price of about 3-5%

[bargain hunter]

looking at the number of upcoming MM new launches. i think better to buy oxley than the units that they are selling. MM craze.

STI chiong now!

most experts saying STI to hit 3500-3600pts this yr...so conservative....or they mean 3500pts by 1st half of 2011?

[teddybear]

Been there before but experience tells me that they are not "investment grade" especially with Govt holding so much free empty OCR land.

hey bear, u nvr owned a RCR/OCR ppty in ur entire life?

[teddybear]

Looks like OCR private property prices is really slowing down after the Aug 30 measure.
Some people said CCR have to drop prices to move units (quoting just an estate as an example to signify the whole CCR) , but yet the CCR property price index went up! Who is telling lies (or part lies to mislead) and who is telling truth?

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Private property prices hit new high in Q4 2010
By Ryan Huang | Posted: 03 January 2011 1402 hrs
Photos 1 of 1


Twitter Messenger

SINGAPORE: Prices of private residential properties hit a new high in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is according to the latest flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

The price index for private residential property rose 2.7 per cent to 194.8 points. This compares with 2.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

For the full year, the price index increased by 17.6 per cent in 2010.

For the fourth quarter, non-landed residential properties in the prime city area, or core central region, led the price increase at 2.3 per cent.

The city fringe areas, or rest of central region, posted a 1.7 per cent increase during the quarter. And suburban areas, or outside central region, showed an increase of 1.6 per cent in the same period.

In comparison, for the 3rd quarter of 2010, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 1.6 per cent in the core central region, 2.3 per cent in the rest of central region and 2.2 per cent in the outside central region.

For the full year, prices increased 14.3 per cent, 17.5 per cent and 14.5 per cent in the core central region, rest of central region and outside central region respectively.

-CNA/ac

LTV of 60% should be targeted at second property and beyond, and exceptions should be given to genuine HDB upgraders. I hope more demand side measures and stop flooding the market with supply. A lot of CCR condos are going to TOP empty and some have dropped prices (e.g. Paterson Suites) to move units (as reported not too long ago) and if more supply comes on board, the market may not be able to absorb.

[devilplate]

looking at the number of upcoming MM new launches. i think better to buy oxley than the units that they are selling. MM craze.

So u help to push up oxley share prices last few days.... Hehe.... I aso worried liao.... Majority new launches either mm 1 or mm 2 bedders

[teddybear]

Want to invest in properties, better buy the physical properties than the developers' shares, you will not win them buying the latter too (as they will be the biggest winner, just like buying REITs).

looking at the number of upcoming MM new launches. i think better to buy oxley than the units that they are selling. MM craze.

[bargain hunter]

notice i was away from the forum last week? i was so busy last week. ok lah, want to push, push together lah? hahaha...oxley game still early lah, at least 2 launches (vibes @ kovan and loft @ holland) these few months and 3 more before june. but dun buy the shares after end april as the moratorium for the original shareholders end and they can cash out anytime at fat profits.

yah scary. i find it even more scary when boutique developers r going for full mm 1 bedder projects with 2 bedders (if they can be called 2 bedders in the first place) even non existent!

So u help to push up oxley share prices last few days.... Hehe.... I aso worried liao.... Majority new launches either mm 1 or mm 2 bedders

[bargain hunter]

shares of ppty developers' are for trading and are not investible. they are also not for everyone.

Want to invest in properties, better buy the physical properties than the developers' shares, you will not win them buying the latter too (as they will be the biggest winner, just like buying REITs).

[azeoprop]

Price did drop for some smaller developments.

E.g. 1 Stillz residence
21 Lorong 108 Changi #02-06
Freehold
$879
1012
$889k
30 Nov 10

21 Lorong 108 Changi #04-06
Freehold
$1048
1012
$1060k
27 Aug 10


E.g. 2 Parc Elegance
Was quoted #04-01 during launch price $875868

13 Telok Kurau Road #04-01
Freehold
$1238
700
$866k
26 Oct 10

[bargain hunter]

$171k is a little too steep isn't it?

Price did drop for some smaller developments.

E.g. 1 Stillz residence
21 Lorong 108 Changi #02-06
Freehold
$879
1012
$889k
30 Nov 10

21 Lorong 108 Changi #04-06
Freehold
$1048
1012
$1060k
27 Aug 10


E.g. 2 Parc Elegance
Was quoted #04-01 during launch price $875868

13 Telok Kurau Road #04-01
Freehold
$1238
700
$866k
26 Oct 10

[azeoprop]

$171k is a little too steep isn't it?

Dunno leh, maybe last unit lelong sales?

[Wild Falcon]

Latest URA index:-

CCR - 200% above Q4'1998 price
RCR - 180% above Q4'1998 price
OCR - 178% above Q4'1998 price

NB: Index Q4'98 = 100

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2011/pr11-01b.pdf

Looks like no more cooling measures as long as quarterly increases is less than 3%

[Wild Falcon]

For the year 2010 as a whole, prices increased by 14.3%, 17.5% and 14.5% in Core Central Region, Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region respectively.

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RCR is the "star performer" in 2010 leh