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Thread: Worry over skewed view as sales of 'shoebox flats' soar

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    Default Worry over skewed view as sales of 'shoebox flats' soar

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/St...ry_621049.html

    Jan 6, 2011

    Worry over skewed view as sales of 'shoebox flats' soar

    Market perception may be distorted by these tiny homes' high psf prices

    By Esther Teo


    SALES of 'shoebox' units went through the roof last year and are expected to stay robust this year, but some observers wonder if their prices are giving buyers a distorted view of the market.

    Shoebox flats tend to have low overall values - often under $1 million - but high per square foot (psf) prices and those are what the market uses for valuing an area.

    Some experts think that those psf prices could give sellers unrealistic expectations for their more regular-sized homes.

    Such concerns were easily dismissed when the shoebox market was small but it is becoming a larger factor, as new figures show.

    Sales of these flats - they are under 500 sq ft - have been steadily increasing since they hit the market in 2006 but the surge in the past year has been striking.

    There were 1,436 caveats lodged for new shoebox units by mid-December last year compared with 725 in 2009 and only 274 in 2008, said property consultancy CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) yesterday.

    They also comprise an increasing slice of the new non-landed private home market with caveats lodged - from 6 per cent in 2009 to 13 per cent last year.

    That underlines the concern about the psychological effect on both buyers and sellers. Prices for shoebox units can be as much as 20 per cent more per sq ft than regular-sized homes in the same project.

    This psf level could give buyers and sellers the wrong perception about benchmark prices.

    Take The Scala near Lorong Chuan MRT station. It launched with average prices of $1,150 psf in July last year, but a shoebox flat of 474 sq ft went for $1,522 psf - or about $720,000 - in August.

    The difference in price was about 32 per cent - and set a new benchmark in terms of price per square foot for the area.

    Similarly, a 484 sq ft unit at the 99-year leasehold Optima@Tanah Merah sold for $1,280 psf, or $620,000, in September last year, also setting new benchmarks.

    The price on a psf basis was 38 per cent more than the $930 psf average for three other flats sold in the same month.

    Units at Optima went for an average of $810 psf when launched in August 2009.

    A seller could come to the conclusion that if a flat at a project in the East Coast can fetch $1,600 psf, then his Newton condo, for example, should go for $2,500 psf.

    The East Coat unit may be 400 sq ft while the Newton flat is 2,000 sq ft, yet the prices could contribute to an unbalanced picture of values in an area.

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) index is based on the psf price and some experts suggest that increased 'shoebox' sales are behind the index's 17.6 per cent gain last year.

    The median psf price for shoebox units with caveats lodged till Dec 21 rose 11 per cent last year, from $1,190 in 2009 to $1,321 psf, CBRE data showed.

    However, a URA spokesman told The Straits Times that sales of small-sized units accounted for only a small proportion of sales over the last few quarters.

    'The property price index is designed to provide the general public and industry players a broad indication of price trends in the private residential market,' the spokesman added.

    While 'shoebox' sales made up 13 per cent of the new home sales market with caveats lodged, when resales and subsales were included, they comprised just 6 per cent or so, CBRE said.

    The URA is monitoring the trends and volumes of such units and will consider making adjustments in its calculation of the index, if necessary.

    Price perceptions or otherwise, experts say demand for such units will continue.

    Cushman & Wakefield Singapore vice-chairman Donald Han said that the strong leasing market - rents were up 11 per cent in the first nine months of last year - will further support the small-flat market as many are for investment.

    'One of the projects in Kembangan we marketed last year, which had a majority of shoebox units, was almost sold out in just two weekends... Most of the buyers also had HDB addresses,' added Mr Han.

    The absolute value of such units is easier on the pocket, often with prices below the psychological $1 million mark.

    Mr Chris Koh, director at Dennis Wee Group, is 'quite confident' that there will be more such units sold this year as developers are acutely aware that Singaporeans on a budget are keen on such homes.

    But Orange Tee's head of research and consultancy, Mr Tan Kok Keong, believes home buyers will realise that the huge supply of larger, more livable homes expected onstream in the next few years will compete with shoebox homes and put their rents under pressure.

    Soho 188 and Robertson Edge were among the first projects to offer flats of about 400 sq ft, in 2006. Sizes have been shrinking since, with Suites @ Guillemard selling units as small as 258 sq ft in 2009.

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    The following trends will continue to skew and distort PSF and URA indexes:-

    1) EC launches - ECs launching at 500+ and 600+psf will skew the PSF downwards. New EC are more "HDB" in nature with so much restrictions (income limit, MOP, can only sell to foreigners in 10 years) that majority of Singaporeans are not able to buy. In Q4'2010, the major launches are all ECs, i.e. Prive, Canopy and Esparina. There will more EC launches in 2011, e.g. Austville. These will skew the index downwards.

    2) MM units - the main reason why RCR outperformed all other districts in 2010 was because the majority of MMs are located in RCR, in particular, D15, D12, D13, D14. MMs with low quantums skews up the PSF. Even many CCR D1, D2 properties will be MMs going forward. So this will definitely skew up the PSF.

    So everyone just have to bear that in mind when analysing the URA index in 2011.

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    Sellers with such idiot expectations can slowly die waiting for offers to come. Banks dont just take the highest psf in a district for valuation. They also consider the unit size. So 400sf in Scala may get valuation of 1500psf but dont think the 2BR will get the same. It is ludicrous to assume so in any particular project much less the entire district.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    The following trends will continue to skew and distort PSF and URA indexes:-

    1) EC launches - ECs launching at 500+ and 600+psf will skew the PSF downwards. New EC are more "HDB" in nature with so much restrictions (income limit, MOP, can only sell to foreigners in 10 years) that majority of Singaporeans are not able to buy. In Q4'2010, the major launches are all ECs, i.e. Prive, Canopy and Esparina. There will more EC launches in 2011, e.g. Austville. These will skew the index downwards.

    2) MM units - the main reason why RCR outperformed all other districts in 2010 was because the majority of MMs are located in RCR, in particular, D15, D12, D13, D14. MMs with low quantums skews up the PSF. Even many CCR D1, D2 properties will be MMs going forward. So this will definitely skew up the PSF.

    So everyone just have to bear that in mind when analysing the URA index in 2011.
    basically these URA indexes are complete crap. If you use them to set prices for your own units, you are in for rude surprises. I personally know that many D10 condos barely 4 years old selling for less than $1300psf, because they are so big. the owners bought these units for more than $1600psf just five years ago.

    If government take more cooling measures based on these distorted URA indexes, the bigger units will drop even further.

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    You are smart.

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    so now looking for new low for psf rather than high.......big units will be more difficult to sell....northvale 3000 sq ft.....guess whats the psf? 397psf wor

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    basically these URA indexes are complete crap. If you use them to set prices for your own units, you are in for rude surprises. I personally know that many D10 condos barely 4 years old selling for less than $1300psf, because they are so big. the owners bought these units for more than $1600psf just five years ago.

    If government take more cooling measures based on these distorted URA indexes, the bigger units will drop even further.
    Can you elaborate exactly which D10 area since it stretches from River Valley to Mount Sinai area.

    What size floor area are these $1300psf units?

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    go streetsine.com and you will find plenty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    so now looking for new low for psf rather than high.......big units will be more difficult to sell....northvale 3000 sq ft.....guess whats the psf? 397psf wor
    Yes, u want big, go for gcb. For mass market, follow family size and income level. Hongkong property so ex and room so small. Why? Make it too big and less people could afford it. The universal truth everywhere is you buy what you can afford. So for sellers, they have to bear in mind that when they want to slaughter the buyer. The kill cannot be too lethal else no buyer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    so now looking for new low for psf rather than high.......big units will be more difficult to sell....northvale 3000 sq ft.....guess whats the psf? 397psf wor
    100pct roof terrace on upper level rite.... Asking psf shd b about there

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    basically these URA indexes are complete crap. If you use them to set prices for your own units, you are in for rude surprises. I personally know that many D10 condos barely 4 years old selling for less than $1300psf, because they are so big. the owners bought these units for more than $1600psf just five years ago.

    If government take more cooling measures based on these distorted URA indexes, the bigger units will drop even further.
    Quote Originally Posted by andy
    Can you elaborate exactly which D10 area since it stretches from River Valley to Mount Sinai area.

    What size floor area are these $1300psf units?
    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    go streetsine.com and you will find plenty.
    Streetsine only show free data a year old. So how to show data that is barely 4 years ago, much less 5 years ago?

    Owners bought 5 years ago. So bought in 2006. If units barely 4 years old, means completed in 2007 january?? so fast built condo ? Unlikely bought at launch price.
    So what is the launch price of the condos?
    And since you know personally so many condos in D10 and since you are not interested in CCR, CCR fans are not going to be competitors with you in buying units in D10. Why not share 2-3 out of your knowledge of so many D10 condos?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Streetsine only show free data a year old. So how to show data that is barely 4 years ago, much less 5 years ago?

    Owners bought 5 years ago. So bought in 2006. If units barely 4 years old, means completed in 2007 january?? so fast built condo ? Unlikely bought at launch price.
    So what is the launch price of the condos?
    And since you know personally so many condos in D10 and since you are not interested in CCR, CCR fans are not going to be competitors with you in buying units in D10. Why not share 2-3 out of your knowledge of so many D10 condos?
    This commie is a complete joke. It can be inferred from his postings that he is very much trying to talk up his crappybelle as he hopes to sell it high and buy a CCR ppty that is near to schools like NYPS or along the Bkt Timah belt. Well, I could be wrong abt the selling/ buying part, but I'm pretty sure he is ACTUALLY VERY INTERESTED in CCR but trying very hard to talk it down so that he could buy a unit here....or he could just be green eyed

    Maybe he mistook Gallop Park for Gallop Gables

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    100pct roof terrace on upper level rite.... Asking psf shd b about there
    nver view but was attracted to the price ......

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Streetsine only show free data a year old. So how to show data that is barely 4 years ago, much less 5 years ago?

    Owners bought 5 years ago. So bought in 2006. If units barely 4 years old, means completed in 2007 january?? so fast built condo ? Unlikely bought at launch price.
    So what is the launch price of the condos?
    And since you know personally so many condos in D10 and since you are not interested in CCR, CCR fans are not going to be competitors with you in buying units in D10. Why not share 2-3 out of your knowledge of so many D10 condos?
    there are a few condos along RV tats selling around 1300-1450 psf ... not very old

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    there are a few condos along RV tats selling around 1300-1450 psf ... not very old
    so wat u waiting for?

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    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    This commie is a complete joke. It can be inferred from his postings that he is very much trying to talk up his crappybelle as he hopes to sell it high and buy a CCR ppty that is near to schools like NYPS or along the Bkt Timah belt. Well, I could be wrong abt the selling/ buying part, but I'm pretty sure he is ACTUALLY VERY INTERESTED in CCR but trying very hard to talk it down so that he could buy a unit here....or he could just be green eyed

    Maybe he mistook Gallop Park for Gallop Gables
    Dear HP65, don't be so negative.
    I can only think of good reasons why Stalingrad refuse to share with us his info.

    Being a charitable kind-hearted soul, I am inclined to think
    1) Stalingrad is doing us (CCR fans) a favor. He thinks CCR is overpriced (even those that drop from 1600 to 1300).
    So instead of us (beginner investors) wasting money buying those lousy projects (lousy why else drop from 1600 to 1300), he kindly refused to share with us his awesome knowledge.
    2) And If he let us know, there will be a bidding war for those projects. In which case, we will waste even more money bidding up those lousy condos.
    3) By selling those condos, those owner occupiers have to leave and stay in another condo be it OCR or CCR. Given the prices of condo, they would have spend even more money getting those new condos.

    Yup, Stalingrad is a kind hearted soul. He is actually doing the buyers and sellers a favor.
    If he is really bad, he would reveal to us of his awesome knowledge and let CCR fans deplete their money buying those lousy condos in D10.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    there are a few condos along RV tats selling around 1300-1450 psf ... not very old
    Does that fit Stalingrad's descriptions?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    so wat u waiting for?

    ehhehe

    will update the forum later

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Does that fit Stalingrad's descriptions?
    i ddnt follow his comments

    but those i found range from 1300 - 2000 sqft

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    ehhehe

    will update the forum later
    the aston 3bedder asking ard 1400psf only...some r gd facing(not facing busy road)....gd deal?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    the aston 3bedder asking ard 1400psf only...some r gd facing(not facing busy road)....gd deal?
    i think most of us dont like it being at a junction .. then again Urbana , comso at junctions ..

    i think location is impt to me .. i also think aston can be rented out fairly easily

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i think most of us dont like it being at a junction .. then again Urbana , comso at junctions ..

    i think location is impt to me .. i also think aston can be rented out fairly easily
    cosmopolitan sounds good. People speculate will have MRT station (thomson line) at cross junction there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i think most of us dont like it being at a junction .. then again Urbana , comso at junctions ..

    i think location is impt to me .. i also think aston can be rented out fairly easily
    over the past 1 yr....majority of the transactions is 1bedder for aston.....no demand for bigger units? strange prices for 1bedder only 13xxpsf on average now....lol...

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    over the past 1 yr....majority of the transactions is 1bedder for aston.....no demand for bigger units? strange prices for 1bedder only 13xxpsf on average now....lol...

    mutiara area also good mah

    just that will have construction ...

    damn easy to rent out lah ...

    my friend managing some small condos in that stretch .. no view also people take .. cos location damn convenient

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    mutiara area also good mah

    just that will have construction ...

    damn easy to rent out lah ...

    my friend managing some small condos in that stretch .. no view also people take .. cos location damn convenient
    Mutiara seems to the lower class area of RV, as compared to Leonie.
    Is it that convenient? walk to GWC also tiring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Mutiara seems to the lower class area of RV, as compared to Leonie.
    Is it that convenient? walk to GWC also tiring.
    no leh

    i used to live shanghai road
    walked to GWC in a breeze ..

    go to work ( raffles place ) also very convenient
    i drove reached office within 10 mins

    take cab also very easy and fast ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Mutiara seems to the lower class area of RV, as compared to Leonie.
    Is it that convenient? walk to GWC also tiring.
    but mutiara ..some units face Latitude ? so view nice mah


    people say Manhattan sky line nice .. ? i live in manhattan ... not nice lah ..

    BUT when you look at Manhattan from Hoboken ( new jearsey) ..WOW manhattan skyline is indeed very nice

    so same same .. mutiara not nice but the view is nice

    for own stay, for rent .. i think its good lor

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    but mutiara ..some units face Latitude ? so view nice mah


    people say Manhattan sky line nice .. ? i live in manhattan ... not nice lah ..

    BUT when you look at Manhattan from Hoboken ( new jearsey) ..WOW manhattan skyline is indeed very nice

    so same same .. mutiara not nice but the view is nice

    for own stay, for rent .. i think its good lor
    Hehe, so view FROM Mutiara not nice, but view AT Mutiara nice?
    Same here, wondering when will Govt launch white sites at Sands side. View from Sands Hotel nicer than view from TS or MBR. More of Singapore skyline
    Last edited by hopeful; 10-01-11 at 10:58.

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    Some thing very strange lei. If he is a charitable kind-hearted soul, how can he wish that CCR drop to OCR price or CCR stagnant while OCR climb to same price since:

    1) He wish that all CCR property owners will lose lots of money for CCR property prices to fall to OCR prices (used to be CCR price 3x or more that of OCR price becomes same)

    2) He wished that all OCR property owners will have to fork out almost lots lots of money to buy that OCR properties (almost as much as CCR properties) but yet of inconvenient and lousy location, poor air quality, lousy quality of buildings and interior furnishings etc, lousy rental incomes, lousy tenants mix, etc.

    3) Worse of all, for all the above, he is looking to buy a CCR property at cheap price despite all his talks about CCR property not worth paying more than OCR property because he said CCR property has no benefits and additional value compared to his OCR Crapbelle! If so, why want to buy CCR property??? No benefit, no value, not worth the price BUT still want to buy??????

    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Dear HP65, don't be so negative.
    I can only think of good reasons why Stalingrad refuse to share with us his info.

    Being a charitable kind-hearted soul, I am inclined to think
    1) Stalingrad is doing us (CCR fans) a favor. He thinks CCR is overpriced (even those that drop from 1600 to 1300).
    So instead of us (beginner investors) wasting money buying those lousy projects (lousy why else drop from 1600 to 1300), he kindly refused to share with us his awesome knowledge.
    2) And If he let us know, there will be a bidding war for those projects. In which case, we will waste even more money bidding up those lousy condos.
    3) By selling those condos, those owner occupiers have to leave and stay in another condo be it OCR or CCR. Given the prices of condo, they would have spend even more money getting those new condos.

    Yup, Stalingrad is a kind hearted soul. He is actually doing the buyers and sellers a favor.
    If he is really bad, he would reveal to us of his awesome knowledge and let CCR fans deplete their money buying those lousy condos in D10.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Some thing very strange lei. If he is a charitable kind-hearted soul, how can he wish that CCR drop to OCR price or CCR stagnant while OCR climb to same price since:

    1) He wish that all CCR property owners will lose lots of money for CCR property prices to fall to OCR prices (used to be CCR price 3x or more that of OCR price becomes same)

    2) He wished that all OCR property owners will have to fork out almost lots lots of money to buy that OCR properties (almost as much as CCR properties) but yet of inconvenient and lousy location, poor air quality, lousy quality of buildings and interior furnishings etc, lousy rental incomes, lousy tenants mix, etc.

    3) Worse of all, for all the above, he is looking to buy a CCR property at cheap price despite all his talks about CCR property not worth paying more than OCR property because he said CCR property has no benefits and additional value compared to his OCR Crapbelle! If so, why want to buy CCR property??? No benefit, no value, not worth the price BUT still want to buy??????
    Let me try to answer on Stalingrad behalf. Stalingrad, with your kind permission.
    1) There are not many CCR owners and they are all rich, so can afford losses if CCR prices drop to OCR prices. Being the kind hearted communist that I am, I wish for everybody to partake in CCR properties. Now is my intention wrong for everybody to partake in CCR?
    2) There are many OCR owners. If their OCR property prices rise, they benefit. And when OCR price up, HDB price also up. Everybody benefits when OCR prices. Again, being the kind hearted communist, I wish for everybody and everything to be the same. So everybody's wealth is enlarged. Is that wrong me also?
    Trust me when I have everybody's best interest at heart. I want everybody to be rich and stay in CCR, even if by CCR means Lim Chu Kang. Soon Singapore will be one huge CCR where all prices are the same - this is my manifesto as a kind-hearted communist.

    ps.
    By the way, from hopeful to the stalingrad, the town of stalingrad has change to volvograd. want to change your nick?

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