Thread: Waterfront Isle (D16, 99 year LH, Frasers Centrepoint / Far East Organization)

  1. #286
    Junior

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    No doubt, over-supply is an issue... especially those small units...

    For own stay, Bedok reservoir is a good place.



    Nomura eyes “supply Tsunami” in Singapore residential
    Thursday, 17 February

    Nomura predicts a “supply tsunami” in Singapore's residential property sector, with its own survey predicting 2012 completions may be twice the official estimates.

    “Based on URA estimates as of end-4Q10, 7,262 units of private non-landed residential properties are scheduled for completion in 2012. Our survey suggests the number could be as high as 15,457 units.”
    The house estimates 47% of completions this year belong to the prime luxury segment; “there are already signs of rental weakness in the prime luxury segment and we believe supply will continue to weigh on this segment in the near term.”

    It tips prime luxury prices to fall 10% in 2011-12. “Be selective on developers,” the house warns.

  2. #287
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    you mean to say offloading?

    me too, in the process of selling 1 of my property. waiting for next recession to happen.
    ya, offloading, downloading is IT word..haha..

    another 1/3 to go this year....

  3. #288
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    ya, offloading, downloading is IT word..haha..

    another 1/3 to go this year....
    After that, enjoy 1% FD in the face of 8% inflation?? I am not bull saying prop market will rocket in next few years but at least it should hold its value against rampant inflation. To me, the downside risk is at most 10% so why sell now?

    The fact is subsidized ward bill in SG hospital went up 100% from 2006 to 2011.

  4. #289
    Exalted

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    After that, enjoy 1% FD in the face of 8% inflation??
    its a gamble lor....he prob predict next dip in 2012/2013

    he offloading 1/3 rite.....deleveraging gd strategy mah as we nvr know when is the peak peak....unless he gona sell almost all....

  5. #290
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    its a gamble lor....he prob predict next dip in 2012/2013

    he offloading 1/3 rite.....deleveraging gd strategy mah as we nvr know when is the peak peak....unless he gona sell almost all....
    Deleverage in the face of 0.5% SIBOR with US unemployment rate at 9%?! If not because of loan restriction of 60%, I will borrow 80% definitely.

    Suggest reading the following article by Paul Krugman about inflation expectation:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ations-matter/

    Take note of the following:

    And that’s not the whole story: because temporarily fixed prices are only revised at intervals, their resets often involve catchup. Again, suppose that I set my prices once a year, and there’s an overall inflation rate of 10 percent. Then at the time I reset my prices, they’ll probably be about 5 percent lower than they “should” be; add that effect to the anticipation of future inflation, and I’ll probably mark up my price by 10 percent — even if supply and demand are more or less balanced right now.

    [jitkiat] That is what happened to our coffee price in Singapore since 2006!!! Up 10% every year.

    Now imagine an economy in which everyone is doing this. What this tells us is that inflation tends to be self-perpetuating, unless there’s a big excess of either supply or demand. In particular, once expectations of, say, persistent 10 percent inflation have become “embedded” in the economy, it will take a major period of slack — years of high unemployment — to get that rate down.

    => what this economist is telling us is that even housing supply can match demand, if inflation expectation is embedded in Asian economy, price will still go up. It takes years of high unemployment or huge oversupply to moderate such inflation expectation

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