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Thread: More measures to cool market

  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I have this feeling that the government is also preparing to contain inflation this year. The main course is interest rate which will whack all borrowers, and these property measures for pte properties are just the appetisers to prevent over-borrowing.
    Yes, inflation will be a key concern. Interest rates surely go up from now on. 3.88 is a nice number. Just how soon..... Year end? Haha

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    if there's no global crisis, i don't think prices will experience major corrections. it'll stagnate there in broad terms as both sellers withdraw their units and buyers stop hunting, resulting in an impasse. they'll be pockets of opportunities arising from a some panic sellers of course, just like in Sep.
    I don't think you need a major crisis. All you need is for the crisis to be OVER and the interest rate to go up to normal levels.

    When the interest payments starts to STACK up... then you will see fire sales. Now interest so low, everybody got holding power....

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I have this feeling that the government is also preparing to contain inflation this year. The main course is interest rate which will whack all borrowers, and these property measures for pte properties are just the appetisers to prevent over-borrowing.
    actually I thought our interest rates are a bit special and is closely tied with US interest rates right?

    What determine Sibor rate in singapore? I think not the government right due to our open economy?

    Any econ experts here?

  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by wind30
    actually I thought our interest rates are a bit special and is closely tied with US interest rates right?

    What determine Sibor rate in singapore? I think not the government right due to our open economy?

    Any econ experts here?
    Singapore doesn't adjust interest rates to cool or heat up the economy. It uses exchange rates.

  5. #215
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    Yes, and our exchange rate will still continue go up to deflect inflation effects (according to MAS). Would investors want to change to a currency that will appreciate (make money from forex) or depreciate? I would expect more foreign money coming into Singapore as long as S$ keep appreciating (especially against US$). Ok, after foreigners bring money into Singapore, what will they do? Keep in bank as FDs and earn 0.1%? Don't think so, especially for venture funds, hedge funds, private funds of individuals and companies or even UTs companies etc. They will invest in properties and shares! Future is still bright for these 2 investments!

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    Singapore doesn't adjust interest rates to cool or heat up the economy. It uses exchange rates.

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Yes, and our exchange rate will still continue go up to deflect inflation effects (according to MAS). Would investors want to change to a currency that will appreciate (make money from forex) or depreciate? I would expect more foreign money coming into Singapore as long as S$ keep appreciating (especially against US$). Ok, after foreigners bring money into Singapore, what will they do? Keep in bank as FDs and earn 0.1%? Don't think so, especially for venture funds, hedge funds, private funds of individuals and companies or even UTs companies etc. They will invest in properties and shares! Future is still bright for these 2 investments!
    Singapore can increase interest rate (benchmark or the SIBOR), it's a matter of whether MAS wants to do it or not. I think the best way to stem inflation is to allow Sing$ to depreciate and interest rates to increase. However, it will be costly $$$ to them...

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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet
    Singapore can increase interest rate (...
    Our monetary system is setup in such a way that we can manipulate FX rate but not interest rate. This is uniquely Singapore......

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet
    Singapore can increase interest rate (benchmark or the SIBOR), it's a matter of whether MAS wants to do it or not. I think the best way to stem inflation is to allow Sing$ to depreciate and interest rates to increase. However, it will be costly $$$ to them...
    mas works like this

    (1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.

    (2) sell sing dollars to decrease the exchange rate. with more sing dollars in circulation, interest rates go down.

    hope this help.

  9. #219
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    just need the developer to adjust 10% down for their new releases and the buying spree will chiong again? impact could have been short term only.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    mas works like this

    (1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.
    In theory yes, but with quantative easing from USA and EU this is not happening. Too much "hot money" flowing around. This could explain why our government implemented these cooling measures as they have no real monetary tools to bring up interest rate.....

  11. #221
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    Is your theory correct, i.e. Exchange rate up means interest rate will go up and vice versa? Let see real case in Singapore:
    1) In 2008, interest rate 5%, US$:S$ = 1.7x
    2) In 2010, interest rate 1%, US$:s$ = 1.29

    Your theory doesn't stand up to real scrutiny. That makes me really wonder about those so called truth/information you provided previously is real or not. Pls check your facts before you post such misleading/untruth information/misinformation.



    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    mas works like this

    (1) buy sing dollars to increase the exchange rate. with fewer sing dollars, interest rates go up.

    (2) sell sing dollars to decrease the exchange rate. with more sing dollars in circulation, interest rates go down.

    hope this help.

  12. #222
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    city develop down 5% and capitaland 3.5%. I did not short these stocks,

  13. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    Our monetary system is setup in such a way that we can manipulate FX rate but not interest rate. This is uniquely Singapore......

    so far yes


    but i dont like the term UNIQUE ...


    people tell me spore is UNIQUE no need to follow china, hk, korea, taiwan who has harsher measures .. and see what happened ?


    so about fx and interest rates ..they are as it is now .. until MAS decides to make changes ... not UNIQUE

  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Is your theory correct, i.e. Exchange rate up means interest rate will go up and vice versa? Let see real case in Singapore:
    1) In 2008, interest rate 5%, US$:S$ = 1.7x
    2) In 2010, interest rate 1%, US$:s$ = 1.29

    Your theory doesn't stand up to real scrutiny. Pls check your facts before you post such misleading/untruth information/misinformation.
    you need to take global interest rates into consideration. I was referring to relative interest rates.

  15. #225
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    I believe the government must have seen something ahead to introduce these severe measures out of the blue. Just to share:
    http://www.propwise.sg/where-will-in...es-go-in-2011/

  16. #226
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    Sorry guys, to bring this up again.

    I am hounding Stalingrad like a hound, since I smell potential profits from his knowledge D10 properties. I believe these to be hidden gems. So I throw my dignity to the wind and beg Stalingrad about his knowledge of D10 that he mentioned in another thread.

    Stalingrad, you are either a speaker of untruths or selfish.
    1) untrue because there is no such properties.
    2) untrue there are such projects, but you are interested to buy CCR, so you dont want competition.
    3) selfish because not interested in CCR,yet do not want to share.
    by the way, I have no issue with point3. So which are you? Just shut me up.

    And to Orange,
    You are one bombastic fellow. When the push to shove, you hide in a corner and ignore. So do you still think prices will drop to 1970s level if a bomb explode in Orchard Rd?
    A simple answer yes or no will suffice. or you will just ignore my question and business proposal? just shut me up too.

    Guys, I maybe a loudmouth idiot, but I will recognised when I am wrong and i dont hide it.
    I think I am the only who admitted that he is wrong in predicting that government won't take additional measures.
    Sorry for making this personal.

  17. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Sorry guys, to bring this up again.

    I am hounding Stalingrad like a hound, since I smell potential profits from his knowledge D10 properties. I believe these to be hidden gems. So I throw my dignity to the wind and beg Stalingrad about his knowledge of D10 that he mentioned in another thread.

    Stalingrad, you are either a speaker of untruths or selfish.
    1) untrue because there is no such properties.
    2) untrue there are such projects, but you are interested to buy CCR, so you dont want competition.
    3) selfish because not interested in CCR,yet do not want to share.
    by the way, I have no issue with point3. So which are you? Just shut me up.

    And to Orange,
    You are one bombastic fellow. When the push to shove, you hide in a corner and ignore. So do you still think prices will drop to 1970s level if a bomb explode in Orchard Rd?
    A simple answer yes or no will suffice. or you will just ignore my question and business proposal? just shut me up too.

    Guys, I maybe a loudmouth idiot, but I will recognised when I am wrong and i dont hide it.
    I think I am the only who admitted that he is wrong in predicting that government won't take additional measures.
    Sorry for making this personal.
    go check out casabella on streetsine.com. less than 1300psf and not even a big unit.

    you happy now. now stop hounding me.

  18. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    just need the developer to adjust 10% down for their new releases and the buying spree will chiong again? impact could have been short term only.

    based on my calculation ... prices have to drop 30 pct to benefit buyers of second prop so that the cash portion of 40pct becomes lower than when it was 30 pct


    question to ask :

    will prop price falls 30 pct becos of this measures ?

    for those who already have OTP before 14 jan .. it is still old rules .. if they exercise the option .. they are subject to the old rules ..
    so if they sell within 1st yr ..the SD is 3 pct not 16 pct ..

    thats my understanding

  19. #229
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    Why would anybody care about relative interest rate or phantom interest rate or whatever that has no concern to them when they own S$, and borrow in interest rate prevailing in Singapore? Another nonsense of yours about 'relative' (or phantom) interest rates that nobody in Singapore uses?

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    you need to take global interest rates into consideration. I was referring to relative interest rates.

  20. #230
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    Yup. It affects the typical Singaporean with less than 200K in OA from playing in property. It does not prevent the richer foreigners to continue to pump in money here.

    Quote Originally Posted by spikey69
    Ok - for the sake of discussion...FTs are still coming in. Singapore is still projected to grow 4-5% this year. Rentals could maintain or increase, no?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Why would anybody care about relative interest rate or phantom interest rate or whatever that has no concern to them when they own S$, and borrow in interest rate prevailing in Singapore? Another nonsense of yours about 'relative' (or phantom) interest rates that nobody in Singapore uses?
    when I talk to you, I fully understand this chinese proverb: "when a scholar meets a foot soldier, he will never win an argument."

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    I think the policies are directed at private properties. The beauty of the policy is that it does not affect 1st time buyers of ECs.

    Quote Originally Posted by trump7
    Know what you mean, but from my feeling, this time cooling measure will majorly affect HDB or OCR market.

    Normally CCR market prices are driven high by foreing money, now especially from China, but for Chinese buyers, even their mainland China or HK also got afftected with legal measures, so this singapore measure is not so strong factor for them, unless Capital gain tax.

  23. #233
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    Definitely. Price stable. Everybody happy. One less topic for opposition parties to harp on.

    Quote Originally Posted by august
    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...104505/1/.html

    everything has to do with election ...

  24. #234
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    Yup. I agree that there will be less money in the game. There will be less players for sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed

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    Quote Originally Posted by gohsoonk
    Yup. It affects the typical Singaporean with less than 200K in OA from playing in property. It does not prevent the richer foreigners to continue to pump in money here.
    there are 2 groups of rich foreigners ...

    the buy to stay/holiday use foreigners ..

    and the buy to speculate rich gambler (PRC especially) ...this group came in very strong in sep-dec 2010 when china imposed SD , when they stayed out of china and 'played' singapore propertise


    the second group will slow down .. or even be killed ...


    the first group hasnt really come back since after Lehman crisis ..

    so how ? still have rich foreigners coming to buy ?

  26. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohsoonk
    I think the policies are directed at private properties. The beauty of the policy is that it does not affect 1st time buyers of ECs.
    as a first time buyer ... one is NOT affected at all be it private or EC

  27. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohsoonk
    Definitely. Price stable. Everybody happy. One less topic for opposition parties to harp on.
    only teddy is unhappy. his ccr properties are now not worth the bricks they are built with. haha.

  28. #238
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    Default Drop like a rock

    Speculative properties bought 2 years ago will drop like a rock now.

    Does anyone know any good prime properties which were purchased on deferred payment scheme that will be TOP soon?

    The seller still keen to sell because may not want to take up the loan, besides if the loan is 60% instead of 80% (originally when he bought the apartment) then prices will surely drop.

    I can't remember when the deferred payment scheme was scrapped.

  29. #239
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    Got. They keep coming back to me wanting to buy my choice units at market price (especially immediately after Govt implements cooling measures) and I always quote them 15% above market price. They LL! Good choice units not scare no buyers. Rich people like choice units in the estate, expensive never mind. Cheap to them is no good (as you said). What is a good reason to sell cheap (cheaper than your neighbouring units) if your property is really good choice unit? Nil. When you sell cheap, it means your unit is no good compared to neighbouring units. The same is true about one estate vs the neighbouring estate (usually the more expensive estates are the better estates - Ops, only caveat is I am comparing resale vs resale, never against new sale because those not worth the money since developers always quote at 25-35% premium and still attracts lots of speculators, pay 10% option fee and can wait till pay the rest for next 3-4 years).


    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    there are 2 groups of rich foreigners ...

    the buy to stay/holiday use foreigners ..

    and the buy to speculate rich gambler (PRC especially) ...this group came in very strong in sep-dec 2010 when china imposed SD , when they stayed out of china and 'played' singapore propertise


    the second group will slow down .. or even be killed ...


    the first group hasnt really come back since after Lehman crisis ..

    so how ? still have rich foreigners coming to buy ?

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    stalin, mine and maybe amk's favourite: DUCHESS RESIDENCES hahaha.

    if i din remember wrongly, deferred was scraped in late 2007 (possibly oct). anything bought during the peak in Q2 to Q3 2007 may be what you would be looking out for. good luck.


    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Speculative properties bought 2 years ago will drop like a rock now.

    Does anyone know any good prime properties which were purchased on deferred payment scheme that will be TOP soon?

    The seller still keen to sell because may not want to take up the loan, besides if the loan is 60% instead of 80% (originally when he bought the apartment) then prices will surely drop.

    I can't remember when the deferred payment scheme was scrapped.

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