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Thread: Loft@Holland

  1. #31
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    so far lowest psf for 2 bedder is 2300+? maybe try ur luck? hee

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    hmm...mabe i shd visit vermont...2kpsf for 2bedder sounds fair....about 10% discount...hehe...

  2. #32
    mr funny is offline Any complaints please PM me
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    http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/St...ry_624014.html

    Jan 14, 2011

    Boutique project sold out in 2 hours


    A BOUTIQUE development in Holland Road has sold out within two hours of a private preview.

    Loft@Holland, a project by small-format homes specialist Oxley Holdings, saw all 41 apartment units taken up yesterday.

    As there were more buyers than homes on offer, balloting was conducted for all but two units.

    On average, there were about three buyers for each unit.

    Prices ranged from $1,630 per square foot (psf) to $2,166 psf.

    The buyers were mainly Singaporeans, Oxley said in a press release.

    Said its executive chairman and chief executive Ching Chiat Kwong: 'The market's overwhelming response to our latest projects is extremely encouraging. We see this as an affirmation of Oxley's unique selling proposition.'

    Located at 151 Holland Road, the five-storey development comprises 37 one-bedroom units, ranging from 323 sq ft to 484 sq ft.

    There are also four two-bedroom penthouses with private jacuzzis, ranging from 980 sq ft to 1,141 sq ft.

    Communal facilities include a basement carpark, a swimming pool and a gymnasium.

    Loft@Holland's successful sale underscored the developer's belief in strong demand from buyers for small-format apartments.

    Mr Ching had said earlier he was confident that these units, popularly known as shoebox apartments, would be well received as quantum prices will be affordable.

    The group has launched five other projects so far: Suites@Katong, Parc Somme, Loft@Rangoon, Viva Vista and RV Point.

    Shoebox flats tend to have low overall values - often under $1 million - but high prices on a psf basis.

    Sales of these flats - they are under 500 sq ft - have been steadily increasing since they hit the market in 2006.

    According to figures from property consultancy CB Richard Ellis, a total of 1,436 caveats were lodged for new shoebox units by mid-December last year, compared with 725 in 2009 and only 274 in 2008.

  3. #33
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    Oxley projects selling very well but their stocks not moving, anybody knows why? I heard oxley paying good dividend on their penny stock as well.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    Oxley projects selling very well but their stocks not moving, anybody knows why? I heard oxley paying good dividend on their penny stock as well.
    never drop very happy liao

  5. #35
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    It dropped from 40c to 37.5c and has been hovering below despite announcement of their project sellouts
    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    never drop very happy liao

  6. #36
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    Market beta has an override capability.

  7. #37
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    you need to take a detailed look at the prospectus to try to value the stock.

    firstly, they promised to pay 50% of profits in 2011, 30% in 2012 and 20% from 2013 to 2015. problem is, earnings are low in 2011 and increases as the projects get sold and completed. thus, the dividend, which is already hard to estimate, may not be too exciting.

    secondly, this oxley holdings is a new entity which Ching, Low and Tee decided to pool their resources to develop only in 2009. Before Loft @ Holland & Vibes @ Kovan, the only projects are Parc Somme, Suites @ Katong, Loft @ Rangoon,Viva Vista and RV Point. ie loft @ nathan and other previously oxley branded projects are Mr. Ching's joint ventures with other pple and has nothing to do with the listed oxley holdings.

    thirdly, it is very hard to try to value the landbank. Out of the 9 residential plots which they have, they have just launched 2. the other 7 remains unknown. we can assume full sell out and at record psf but even this is built into the price of the stock at least partially already. at 0.375, the market value of oxley is already 558m. the entry price of the 3 fellas i mentioned above through their pooling of resources is 0.70 CENTS ie, not even 7c, its 0.70 CENTS. they have become multimillionaires overnight so to say. new shareholders got IPO at 38c.

    sorry for talking so much about stocks. this is not a stock forum. hee. just providing some info for Regulators, hope he finds it helpful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    Oxley projects selling very well but their stocks not moving, anybody knows why? I heard oxley paying good dividend on their penny stock as well.

  8. #38
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    Thanks for the insight. So in other words, you feel that oxley stocks are not their current fair value? I read that they would be disbursing 50% of profits to shareholders as dividends, which is very attractive it seems. Do you see much upside in this counter based on their performance for vibes and loft @ holland?

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    you need to take a detailed look at the prospectus to try to value the stock.

    firstly, they promised to pay 50% of profits in 2011, 30% in 2012 and 20% from 2013 to 2015. problem is, earnings are low in 2011 and increases as the projects get sold and completed. thus, the dividend, which is already hard to estimate, may not be too exciting.

    secondly, this oxley holdings is a new entity which Ching, Low and Tee decided to pool their resources to develop only in 2009. Before Loft @ Holland & Vibes @ Kovan, the only projects are Parc Somme, Suites @ Katong, Loft @ Rangoon,Viva Vista and RV Point. ie loft @ nathan and other previously oxley branded projects are Mr. Ching's joint ventures with other pple and has nothing to do with the listed oxley holdings.

    thirdly, it is very hard to try to value the landbank. Out of the 9 residential plots which they have, they have just launched 2. the other 7 remains unknown. we can assume full sell out and at record psf but even this is built into the price of the stock at least partially already. at 0.375, the market value of oxley is already 558m. the entry price of the 3 fellas i mentioned above through their pooling of resources is 0.70 CENTS ie, not even 7c, its 0.70 CENTS. they have become multimillionaires overnight so to say. new shareholders got IPO at 38c.

    sorry for talking so much about stocks. this is not a stock forum. hee. just providing some info for Regulators, hope he finds it helpful.

  9. #39
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    as i was saying, 50% (of low profits) only in first year may not be a lot of dividends. and as they recognise more profits in next few years (as the projects inch closer to completion), they pay less dividends.

    i find that it is a high risk high return stock as a lot of things are not predictable and gotta be assumed. but i guess the basics is "buy only if you think their next 7 MM projects will sell like hot cakes at record psf despite the cooling measures."


    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    Thanks for the insight. So in other words, you feel that oxley stocks are not their current fair value? I read that they would be disbursing 50% of profits to shareholders as dividends, which is very attractive it seems. Do you see much upside in this counter based on their performance for vibes and loft @ holland?

  10. #40
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    there was a news article recently saying tat those stocks tat makes good gains din hf much buy calls....

  11. #41
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    coz all the analysts know already ownself buy, then cite conflict of interest then dun cover the stock? hahahahahhaha

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    there was a news article recently saying tat those stocks tat makes good gains din hf much buy calls....

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    you need to take a detailed look at the prospectus to try to value the stock.

    firstly, they promised to pay 50% of profits in 2011, 30% in 2012 and 20% from 2013 to 2015. problem is, earnings are low in 2011 and increases as the projects get sold and completed. thus, the dividend, which is already hard to estimate, may not be too exciting.

    secondly, this oxley holdings is a new entity which Ching, Low and Tee decided to pool their resources to develop only in 2009. Before Loft @ Holland & Vibes @ Kovan, the only projects are Parc Somme, Suites @ Katong, Loft @ Rangoon,Viva Vista and RV Point. ie loft @ nathan and other previously oxley branded projects are Mr. Ching's joint ventures with other pple and has nothing to do with the listed oxley holdings.

    thirdly, it is very hard to try to value the landbank. Out of the 9 residential plots which they have, they have just launched 2. the other 7 remains unknown. we can assume full sell out and at record psf but even this is built into the price of the stock at least partially already. at 0.375, the market value of oxley is already 558m. the entry price of the 3 fellas i mentioned above through their pooling of resources is 0.70 CENTS ie, not even 7c, its 0.70 CENTS. they have become multimillionaires overnight so to say. new shareholders got IPO at 38c.

    sorry for talking so much about stocks. this is not a stock forum. hee. just providing some info for Regulators, hope he finds it helpful.
    bro, u r influential man....

    oxley dropped 8% today!

    HUAT HUAT HUAT!!!!

  13. #43
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    many counters also dropped lah...sti dropped as well

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    bro, u r influential man....

    oxley dropped 8% today!

    HUAT HUAT HUAT!!!!

  14. #44
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    oops. sorry oxley, not intentional hahaha. i wasn't even watching, din realise it was hit. hey, can't be so many pple read this loft @ holland thread rite? anyway, the test for it will be the loft @ stevens launch on 26th jan, next wed. if they start to sell slower and slower, then........

    anyway, i stick to my view: whoever want to play around with this counter should stop before end april, when the moratorium ends. just my own personal opinion, but i feel the temptation for the overnight millionaires will be too great and they will take some profits since their cost is 0.007 vs the current 0.345 share price.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    bro, u r influential man....

    oxley dropped 8% today!

    HUAT HUAT HUAT!!!!

  15. #45
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    Default came across this article

    Oxley Holdings Ltd – a company visit reveals huge hidden potential….if they execute their plans well…….BUY/Accumulate at IPO price for
    Thursday, 6 January, 2011 9:55 AM
    Posted by Kevin Scully

    30-40% upside on its existing asset base.

    I met the management of Oxley Holdings Ltd earlier this week. The company launched its IPO in October 2010 at S$0.38 and raised gross proceeds of about S$85.1mn. The shares retraced since IPO to a low of S$0.31 and have been recovering over the last few days to S$0.37 yesterday – still below the IPO price. Looks like other investors are looking at the stock too. There are hardly any substantive financials to look at but the potential is still there and we must rely on execution of their plans.



    I was skeptical about the potential before my visit because it was in the property sector in Singapore which had been under performing because of Government property curbs. There was also hardly any up to date financial information in the Prospectus and even the Q1-2011 results till September 30, 2010 with net profit of S$1.83mn and shareholders funds S$9.4mn did not seem to justify its huge market capitalization of S$539mn. The only piece of information in the prospectus which could support such a number was the capital value of its 15 property sites of S$443mn. The IPO proceeds would also have increased its shareholders funds to just over S$100mn as the Q1-2011 was before its IPO.

    The Surprises
    My first impressions of the management were positive. They were enthusiastic and seemed to have identified a niche for themselves in a sector dominated by many established players.

    Background/business strategy
    The company is a pure developer of residential, industrial and office property in Singapore, ie everything is for sale with little or nothing kept as investment properties including office and industrial. Shortly after securing landsite, these would be launched and sold – creating a healthy future income stream and reducing the risk of its current high gearing level.

    What can we expect ?!
    We should see some of the benefits from this strategy in the second half of 2011. In the prospectus the company had already announced the launch and sale of 5 projects – Parc Somme, Suites@Katong, Loft@Rangoon, RV Point and Viva Vista. Everything is sold except for 2 shop units and RV Port – totaling 285 homes and 131 shops with revenue of about S$250mn and profit of about S$120mn…..but this will be recognized on progressive completion over the next two years.

    The company intends to launch another 5 projects in calendar Q1-2011 – 4 residential sites in Stevens Road, Kovan Road, Devonshire and Holland Road and their big industrial site in Ubi. Details of the sites can be found in the prospectus.

    Ubi is important as it could potential generate revenue of more than $500mn from its 1 million square feet of sellable space.

    138 Robinson Road - a hidden gem
    The hidden gem seems to be an option that the Company exercised on 7 October 2010 (page 87 of the prospectus) for 138 Robinson Road. I walked down to see the site (see photos below). Its next to Chow House which is being redeveloped into a residential block. Oxley plans to redevelop the site once it gains vacant possession into small office and some retail with an estimated sellable area of more than 200,000 sq feet.

    The estimated selling price is still not know but recent transactions of the Suites at Robinson of retail at S$5000 psf and residential at S$2800 psf will provide some guide as to the indicative pricing. The site is classified as office so there is hardly any DC payable which would suggest that their land cost and breakeven would be low relative to the selling prices above.



    The Best Case Scenario
    If they can sell the proposed Q1-2011 launches well and if the numbers for 138 Robinson Road are along the lines of the transactions above, Oxley could surprisingly generate a profit stream of $700-900mn over the next four to five years which would boost its forward RNAV to S$800-900mn. This is forward as the company only recognizes profit on progressive completion.

    So in the best case scenario of where the Q1-2011 launches proceed as planned and they announce the launch of 138 Robinson Road – we are looking at a future RNAV of S$900mn or about S$0.62 per share (a 67% premium to the current share price). To be conservative, we have discounted this future income to the present day using a discount rate of 8% to give a present value RNAV of S$0.51 (upside of about 38%).

    The company has also committed to pay 50% of earnings in 2011 as a dividend followed by 30% for 2012 earnings and 20% for 2013 earnings. Assuming net profit of about S$50-60mn for the FYE June 30, 2011, investors would be looking at a running yield of about 5%

    What could go wrong ?

    The key to the S$0.51 target is the launch of UBI and 138 Robinson Road, these are likely to be the price catalyst for the shares to rerate. Their successful launch at current prices would unlock the value. However, weak demand would be a dent and I would need to rework the numbers. So I will be watching its Q2-2011 results and the launch results for confirmation that the earnings and sales momentum is on track.

    Possible overhang from Pre-Ipo investors ?

    There are 126.5mn shares at S$0.21 which were issued to nine individuals and entities comprising 8.5% of the enlarged capital. These shares could dampen the share price should these investors decide to sell their shares once their moratorium ends (six months after IPO).

    When asked about the potential overhang, the management indicated that these were friends and business associates who were therefore likely to be medium to long term investors. While I am happy to know this, investors should be aware that there is no assurance of what these investors will do when the moratorium ends.

    However, if the fundamentals pan out, any weakness from the ending of the moratorium will provide a buying opportunity.

    High gross gearing ?

    Investors should be aware that Oxley’s debt levels will be high as it tries to build up its shareholders funds – in the initial years gearing of 300-400%. This is similar to SC Global’s gearing level according to Bloomberg. But the gearing and debt risk is mitigated by their business strategy of selling the land they acquire quickly after acquisition. So while the gross gearing remains high…..this will naturally decline as the progressive income is recognized.

    This will become a serious risk if their launches are not well taken up and must be monitored closely.

    Overall view

    I think the shares are overlooked and offer great hidden potential and upside of 30-40% from the S$0.37 level based on its current landbank and my expectation of reasonable launches and selling prices. The prospectus and the Q1-2011 results do not give investors a good nor clear picture of the company. Hopefully the Q2-2011 and the full year 2011 financial statements will be more reflective of the underlying assets and their potential.

    The key is execution and if the company’s launches are well received and it delivers net profits in the June 2011 period of S$50-60mn, it is likely to attract more investor interest.

    Given the above, I think accumulation and buying of the shares at the IPO prices offers a good entry level with 30-40% upside in the medium term. Investors can also expect a reasonable dividend yield at least over the next three financial years of about 5% and with further upside should they continue to acquire niche land sites with good yields.

  16. #46
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    Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders = 458k. H1 total 1603k. there are now 1489000k shares. Earnings per share is 0.11 CENTS. even if H2 profits jump, paying out 50% of those profits as dividends is not going to give u a decent yield at the current share price of 34.5 CENTS for sure. Net Asset Value is a mere 8.04 CENTS. they will seriously need to continue to be able to sell their MM at obscene net profit margins to justify their 34.5 CENTS share price.



    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    as i was saying, 50% (of low profits) only in first year may not be a lot of dividends. and as they recognise more profits in next few years (as the projects inch closer to completion), they pay less dividends.

    i find that it is a high risk high return stock as a lot of things are not predictable and gotta be assumed. but i guess the basics is "buy only if you think their next 7 MM projects will sell like hot cakes at record psf despite the cooling measures."

  17. #47
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    What do you think the dividend payout will be like?
    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders = 458k. H1 total 1603k. there are now 1489000k shares. Earnings per share is 0.11 CENTS. even if H2 profits jump, paying out 50% of those profits as dividends is not going to give u a decent yield at the current share price of 34.5 CENTS for sure. Net Asset Value is a mere 8.04 CENTS. they will seriously need to continue to be able to sell their MM at obscene net profit margins to justify their 34.5 CENTS share price.

  18. #48
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    put it this way, to pay out 1c (2.9% at current price), they need to earn 2c = 29.78 million. they earned 1.6m in H1. I seriously don't expect them to make a net profit of 28m in H2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    What do you think the dividend payout will be like?

  19. #49
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    What do you expect the fair value of the share to be? So it seems you do not think oxley can keep the same pace for their other future launches
    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    put it this way, to pay out 1c (2.9% at current price), they need to earn 2c = 29.78 million. they earned 1.6m in H1. I seriously don't expect them to make a net profit of 28m in H2.

  20. #50
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    i find it very hard to estimate the fair value precisely because of the uncertainty of the unsold landbank. if the 7 landbanks and the industrial plot + robinson acquisition goes perfect, then maybe its worth more than 40c to maybe even up to that kevin scully's 0.51 target. but if any of the combination cocks up, then the fair value is likely to be below 30c. so pretty high risk vs not so exciting returns.

    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    What do you expect the fair value of the share to be? So it seems you do not think oxley can keep the same pace for their other future launches

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