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Thread: NEW 2011 CCR or OCR thread

  1. #31
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    I personally think $1.2k psf for mass OCR market condos will not be the norm, even though some FEO projects are transacted at these high prices. There is more upside to buying mi casa at 7xxpsf (estimated at 20% at least) as opposed to lakefront at 1.2k psf if you are talking about cap appreciation. If foreigners are increasingly looking into buying / renting places like Jurong and the outlying areas, shifting their focus away from prime, condos in the OCR at 6xx-7xxpsf could see a spike of 20-30% in maybe the next couple of years. In the next few years, OCR projects will be driven up a lot by govt announcements in individual estates, but that being said, prices will also be adjusted downwards by rising interest rates. I personally won't bother buying a new project in the next few years unless the price is attractive. I believe buying an older condo backed by good rental returns is the way forward.


    Suburban homes in high demand

    by Jo-Ann Huang Limin

    05:55 AM Jan 21, 2011


    SINGAPORE - Once living in the shadow of their inner-city and city fringe cousins, suburban residential properties are now stepping out on their own - with some of these properties located in more remote areas only accessible by feeder buses and light rail transit (LRT).

    And property experts say such mass market homes remain in high demand from owner-occupiers, who are unscathed by the new round of cooling measures that target mainly speculators.

    The Tennery, one of Far East Organization's newest properties, is a prime example of an outlying property hot in demand. According to Far East Organization, more than 90 per cent of the 338 units - 620 sq ft to 950 sq ft for one- and two bedroom units - have been sold.

    Located at the crossroads of Woodlands Road and Bukit Panjang, The Tennery units sold at prices ranging from $1,118 to $1,317 per square foot (psf), according to December sales figures from the Urban Redevelopment Authority. The 16-storey property will be built above the Ten Mile Junction LRT station and the upcoming Junction 10 shopping mall.

    A little over a year ago, a unit at another Far East Organization's property, Mi Casa in the Choa Chu Kang/Bukit Panjang area, transacted at a price of $692 psf in November 2009. Mi Casa's homes cater to families, with two- to four- bedroom units ranging from 990 sq ft to over 2,000 sq ft for the largest units.

    Analysts say more home buyers and investors are looking at suburban properties, now that plans to revamp regional centres have been announced by both developers and the Government.

    "Home buyers who are buying properties, especially those that are away from the city centre, are predominantly Singaporeans. Almost eight out of 10 of them will be Singaporeans. But we are also seeing an increasing number of foreigners - predominantly permanent residents - who are considering buying such properties, especially as Singapore increases its intake of immigrants," said Mr Nicholas Mak, research head at real estate consultancy SLP International.

    And despite the new cooling measures, property developers are capitalising on the trend. For instance, CapitaLand is building a 24,902-sq-m mixed retail and residential property at Bedok Town Centre. The developer is also going ahead with plans to release the project's 500 units for sale this year, regardless of the new measures.

    The property is located within a shopping catchment of 300,000 residents in the Bedok area, atop a new integrated bus and MRT interchange, and is a short walk from new and revamped family-friendly amenities.

    Other suburban locations that may present property development opportunities is the Jurong Lake District - home to Jurong Gateway, Cleantech Park and a number of business and leisure destinations - as well as Seletar Hills, where The Greenwich retail and residential development was recently launched.

    "Far-flung suburban properties tend to be more for owner occupation. If they are not very accessible to local transport, they tend to be less attractive to tenants. Therefore, investors would buy it only if they think there is good capital appreciation of some of these properties," said Mr Mak.

    "Once the authorities have announced plans for a new MRT track or stations around the area, the owners of some of these properties would immediately increase their asking price," he added.

    With the Government Land Sales programme set to release 10 sites on the confirmed list located near MRT stations this year, analysts expect new developments to break into these areas.

    "Singapore has come a long way. In the past, if you had properties in places like Changi, it could take a long journey time of at least two hours to get to the city. But now, we have a good network of MRT and expressways in Singapore. And in that sense, some Singaporeans are looking at these properties in a better light," said Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

    Investors who intend to ride on growing rentals can now look to suburban properties. As Singapore's population and economy grows, demand for rental properties in suburban areas will also be on the rise. Rentals grew by 27.5 per cent from November 2009 to November 2010.

    Even buyers with deeper pockets are seeking out homes in suburban areas. Mid-tier developments such as Suites @ Eunos were sold at a median launch price of $1,339 psf, while The Lanai was sold at the latest price of $1,450 psf. Both properties are in the Outside Central Region, with Suites @ Eunos located at Jalan Yasin and The Lanai located near Hillview Avenue.

    The sentiment for such homes will be affected by the new cooling measures but the effect will be short-lived, Mr Tan said.

    "The market is just reeling from shock, but normal service will resume in a couple of weeks," he said.



    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    When u say "perform", are u saying OCR projects that had already jumped 40 to 50% in 2009-10, or those already launched at 1kpsf, will continue "perform" another 10-20% ? I mean, really, Jurong at 1200 psf ?

    I dun question the genuine demand for OCR mass market projects. The question is, has it reached a level that's simply not affordable anymore for the mass market ?

    Prime segment has no real affordability issue. It's all sentiment driven. Once the feel good factor is in, another 10% is easily achievable. Most of these projects are still 10% below 2007 level.

  2. #32
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    My understanding is there are now 2 main property indexes: the URA index and the NUS srpi. These 2 indexes although both shoot up last year, it looks to me for OCR price hike this round, it was largely driven by new launch. The new launch (MM units) goes up to 1k psf while the resale old condo psf is still at 20-30% less than new launch. Is my observation correct? Is that a norm? Or did not misinterpret something?

    I also have 1 question: If the price would to correct, which one will go down first -- new launch or resales? Which one will get harder hit?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilaone
    My understanding is there are now 2 main property indexes: the URA index and the NUS srpi. These 2 indexes although both shoot up last year, it looks to me for OCR price hike this round, it was largely driven by new launch. The new launch (MM units) goes up to 1k psf while the resale old condo psf is still at 20-30% less than new launch. Is my observation correct? Is that a norm? Or did not misinterpret something?

    I also have 1 question: If the price would to correct, which one will go down first -- new launch or resales? Which one will get harder hit?
    resale/subsale hardest hit....but vy hard to find....everyday flip classifieds....pay agts 2% comm to BUY may not get u anything too

  4. #34
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    I believe so, see below report.

    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    When u say "perform", are u saying OCR projects that had already jumped 40 to 50% in 2009-10, or those already launched at 1kpsf, will continue "perform" another 10-20% ? I mean, really, Jurong at 1200 psf ?

    I dun question the genuine demand for OCR mass market projects. The question is, has it reached a level that's simply not affordable anymore for the mass market ?

    Prime segment has no real affordability issue. It's all sentiment driven. Once the feel good factor is in, another 10% is easily achievable. Most of these projects are still 10% below 2007 level.


    14/01/2011
    Latest round of cooling measures to hit mass market



    ®Copyright MediaCorp



    The latest round of property cooling measures announced by the government which kick in today, have sent ripples through the industry.

    The Sellers Stamp Duty has been raised to 16% for property sold within a year, up from the previous 3%.

    The maximum loan available to individuals buying their second property has also been reduced to 60%, down from 70%.

    Analysts say the mass market will be hit the hardest as there's less profit to be made.

    Our reporter Joanne Chan speaks to Vice Chairman of Cushman and Wakefield, Donald Han, to break down how the measures will impact consumers.

    Donald, the government has introduced a new, fresh round of cooling measures that take effect from today. Why do you think they decided to take action so soon just after the August 30 measures?

    Probably came about due to the fresh buying environment. Certainly we saw very strong numbers in November, hitting about 1900 new home sales. I suspect the December numbers look equally as strong, hitting close to 2,000 homes. So, in a typical calendar year of property sales, the end of the year is usually the quieter period. If you look at an example, at the end of 2009, sales transactions only hit a few hundred per month for the 4th quarter. So I think there's reason to suspect that high volume numbers will at some point of time, eventually, slowly but surely, create an uptake in prices as well.

    Who exactly is the government targeting to remove?

    I think the government is really targeting those buying and selling over the short and potentially even the medium term. I think they want buyers to come in and stay a little bit longer, in that sense. But it doesn't really deter people from buying and selling over the 2 or 3 year period, despite the measure targetting on 4-year holding period.

    If you look at total cost, let's say you're buying in year one and selling in year one, your total additional cost in terms of sellers stamp duty plus agency fees, brokers fees, lawyers fees, sellers stamp duty as well, your first year holding could be about 20%. So if you estimate in one year, you're going to make much less than 20%, and you want to buy and sell within 1 year, that's not going to make sense. But that holding cost is going to start to reduce because of the regressive nature of the seller's stamp duty. So if you're looking into the 2nd year, buying and selling within 2 years, your holding cost over the 2-year period will reduce to 15%, and over the 3 year period, will reduce to 10% roughly.

    What's your assessment then. Are we at that point in the market where sellers may not be that affected by the 10% additional cost?

    I think it depends on the segment. If you're looking into the mass market segment, people on the lower, mid-end segment, I think we're going to see a stabilisation of prices. Ourselves, we think the market will move up to a 5% upward price movement, for this year and possibly next year as well. In that sense, the price movement will likely see a larger price quantum in the high-end segment because the goverment measures introduced target the mass market, more the affordables.

    The high-end buyers are well-versed with the 50%, 60% LTV ratios, they've got more than enough cash to fork out. So less impact on the high-end. And I think the investors may target on the high-end, rather than target the mass market which pretty much has a limited upside in terms of investment value.

    So high-end unlikely to be affected, but mass-market we might see some adjustments?

    Correct, some adjustments, by virtue that demand has pretty much been sidelined. Some of the buyers coming from the HDB upgraders, the LTV ratio is now reduced to 60%. That's quite a huge whack on the wallet. So they have to be prepared to come up with 40% cash.

    Why is it such a big hit to upgraders? I mean, if they are selling off their 1st property, it shouldn't be a big difference?

    I think if you are looking at first time buyers applying for the first time, of course these rules don't impact and the benefit is for first-hand buyers. But if you've bought your first property, and now you're looking into your second property, if you're upgrading from an HDB to a private property, and assuming that the private property is under construction, where you have to pay progressive payments and all that, the loan quantum that's available to you is 60% of the value or the purchase price, whichever is lower, and you need to fork out 40% cash in that sense. And you're stuck with a property which you cannot sell until you have a place to move into, which is under construction and will only be ready in 2, 3 years time. So that will be a disincentive for crossover buyers into the private market. I guess it's alright for buyers who are crossing over into private property that already completed then you can do a back-to-back transaction of selling your HDB and moving into your new property.

    How do you expect prices to be affect?

    I think purely by slowing demand, if you have less of demand... a lot of supply coming up. Without 3rd round measures, we expect prices to move up.Because of the current measures, put stop to volume. If volume comes down, sales affected. Less possibility of developers raising prices. Less possibility of sellout projects. Slowflats will have fewer people. People wait for better signal before they put ink to the agreement. Had it not been for this measures, expected to grow at 5-8%. Now putting to at less than 5% and possibly even flat year for rest of 2011.

  5. #35
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    Since Sep 2009, after the first cooling measure, people have been saying prices will drop. Then Feb 2010, analysts say property die already. I have been hearing mass market dropping for a year at least? Seriously, it is hard to tell. It just take 500 buyers in CCR, RCR or OCR to drive up prices by 15%. Imagine, 500 buyers snap up orchard properties. You think you still can find anything below 3000 psf after that? I think it is really hard to predict.

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    1195sq ft for 3 bedrooms at queens.

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i read the link on Queens ..
    it said a 9th flr unit was sold for 1.26mio = 1055 psf ...
    but i know a 7th flr was sold at 12xx psf last yr ... does it mean prices actually lower ?

    so has buying returned becos prices has fallen ?

    any idea how big is the 3 bedroom ?
    could it be the 3 bedrooms are bigger hence can fetch a higher rent ?

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    ....There is more upside to buying mi casa at 7xxpsf (estimated at 20% at least) as opposed to lakefront at 1.2k psf if you are talking about cap appreciation. ...condos in the OCR at 6xx-7xxpsf could see a spike of 20-30% in maybe the next couple of years.
    so what u r saying is, only those OCR projects that stayed at 6xx-7xx level will still have substantial upside going forward ? and those over 1kpsf ones, new or resale, will not see much upside in the short or medium term ?

  8. #38
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    would you buy lakefront at 1.3k psf? Would you expect this 99yr LH project to climb to 1.6k psf on TOP despite more possible cooing measures on the pipeline? Judging from the poor takeup rate of lakefront, don't you think it speaks a lot]
    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    so what u r saying is, only those OCR projects that stayed at 6xx-7xx level will still have substantial upside going forward ? and those over 1kpsf ones, new or resale, will not see much upside in the short or medium term ?

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    u should know I'm pro CCR right now, so for me personally I will not even pay 900 for lake** projects that's not the point though.
    my Q to u was to see if your opinion is that only 6xx-7xx OCR projects still have upside. so I take it as a yes ?

  10. #40
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    in comparison to the new projects around, yes, 6xxpsf is worthy of a gamble. If a new condo is selling at 100% higher than a nearby older condo, it won't take much to know that the older condo has room to catch up. That is the way I see it.
    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    u should know I'm pro CCR right now, so for me personally I will not even pay 900 for lake** projects that's not the point though.
    my Q to u was to see if your opinion is that only 6xx-7xx OCR projects still have upside. so I take it as a yes ?

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    For ocr condos, buyers might have placed too high a premium for newness, creating enormous price differences between old and new.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    For ocr condos, buyers might have placed too high a premium for newness, creating enormous price differences between old and new.
    This links back to my question in earlier post: If the price correct, will it hit the 600-700 psf old condo harder or it will hit the new lake** 1k psf harder?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilaone
    This links back to my question in earlier post: If the price correct, will it hit the 600-700 psf old condo harder or it will hit the new lake** 1k psf harder?
    i would think it will hit the 1k psf harder; hdb is supporting the old condo @400-500psf

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    Hi, I am not sure where can I post this question. My relative told me that it is not advisable to buy low rise apartment because it canno tbe sold to foreigners. Is there such a rule? Under what circumstances we are not allowed to sell our property to foreigners? I know EC below 10 years have this rule.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilaone
    This links back to my question in earlier post: If the price correct, will it hit the 600-700 psf old condo harder or it will hit the new lake** 1k psf harder?
    abit hard lah, for price to fall , there need to be panic due to super interest rates hike or hyper-inflation risk....

    just dont see it happening at the present economic conditions(no including regional polictial risk) at least not in the next 2 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Montaigne
    Hi, I am not sure where can I post this question. My relative told me that it is not advisable to buy low rise apartment because it canno tbe sold to foreigners. Is there such a rule? Under what circumstances we are not allowed to sell our property to foreigners? I know EC below 10 years have this rule.
    ur relative super outdated liao....i tink he/she refering to apt status....

    last time apartments cannot be sold to foreigners....and most apts(boutique apts) r low-rise...

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilaone
    This links back to my question in earlier post: If the price correct, will it hit the 600-700 psf old condo harder or it will hit the new lake** 1k psf harder?
    from my own observation, only old old 99LH condos r hardest hit....FH condos usually less firesales....

    unlikely to see lakefront firesale....unless a prolonged recession of let say >3yrs....2008-2009 recession was a super short and sweet one...

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    just to illustrate an example, the hdb flats in jurong east already more than 500psf, so to buy a condo nearby at 6xxpsf or 7xxpsf, it is a no brainer coz there is strong support
    Quote Originally Posted by gilaone
    This links back to my question in earlier post: If the price correct, will it hit the 600-700 psf old condo harder or it will hit the new lake** 1k psf harder?

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    Can someone help me confirm if CCR is just 1, 2, 9, 10 11 or it include district 3 and 4 ? And which district falls under RCR. Thanks....

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    This might help you better: http://property.sillydumb.com/district.php

    Some places with similar district numbers can be either CCR or RCR / RCR or OCR so your question don't make much sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by CCR
    Can someone help me confirm if CCR is just 1, 2, 9, 10 11 or it include district 3 and 4 ? And which district falls under RCR. Thanks....

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    What denotes CCR, RCR and OCR is determined in URA's plan with clearly demarcated lines showing the three areas. For example, you can get parts of D15 in RCR and OCR

    Quote Originally Posted by CCR
    Can someone help me confirm if CCR is just 1, 2, 9, 10 11 or it include district 3 and 4 ? And which district falls under RCR. Thanks....

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    So where can I find the clearly demarcated lines of URA plan?

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    most singapore map have those demarcated lines. I have a big map in my house, but can't upload it here
    Quote Originally Posted by CCR
    So where can I find the clearly demarcated lines of URA plan?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CCR
    So where can I find the clearly demarcated lines of URA plan?
    Here you go...

    http://spring.ura.gov.sg/lad/ore/login/map_ccr.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    ur relative super outdated liao....i tink he/she refering to apt status....

    last time apartments cannot be sold to foreigners....and most apts(boutique apts) r low-rise...
    So if I bought an older apartment, can i sell to foreigners or am I subjected to the old rules? So to play safe, don't buy apartment status project?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Montaigne
    So if I bought an older apartment, can i sell to foreigners or am I subjected to the old rules? So to play safe, don't buy apartment status project?
    ALL types of PTE apt and condos can sell to foreigners now...

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    Quote Originally Posted by sh
    Thanks man... Two questions

    Is CCR all areas within the black demarcated lines or only 1,2,9,10,11?
    Is pan dan valley condo under CCR?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Montaigne
    So if I bought an older apartment, can i sell to foreigners or am I subjected to the old rules? So to play safe, don't buy apartment status project?
    apartment status 5 floors or less, foreigners cannot buy.
    if apartment have 20 stories, foreigners can buy ground floor

    condo status are exempt from the restriction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    apartment status 5 floors or less, foreigners cannot buy.
    if apartment have 20 stories, foreigners can buy ground floor

    condo status are exempt from the restriction.
    Is this updated?? If not then you are not right??

    http://www.sla.gov.sg/htm/new/new2005/new0260.htm

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    Wah! You are "CCR" didn't understand CCR well?
    The yellowish coloured region is the original genuine CCR, ie. D9-D11 (which also contains fake CCR region). The new CCR is the blue region D1 and D2 ("fake" new CCR regions). There may possibly be new CCR regions in future (of which the reasons for doing so are obvious). E.g. D1 & D2 get classified into "CCR" and price shoot up, somebody sells lots of 99years LH land very happy. This tactic quite good to them siah!

    All other areas within black demarcated lines but exclude coloured regions RCR. Outside the black line is OCR.


    Quote Originally Posted by CCR
    Thanks man... Two questions

    Is CCR all areas within the black demarcated lines or only 1,2,9,10,11?
    Is pan dan valley condo under CCR?

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