Market Pulse Check - prices, volumes up or down

**CCR** · 12-02-11, 13:26

Hey, I am starting a new thread, wanna do a check with all forummers,many one out looking for condos or selling, are there still buyers? Is the market still warm and prices firm or the market is dead cold?

**kingkong1984** · 12-02-11, 13:40

Dead cold.

Hot ones are HDB's.

**spikey69** · 12-02-11, 13:47

good for me...benchmark prices rising for new condos

**teddybear** · 12-02-11, 13:51

In CCR, many sellers took their properties off the market. Supply drop by more than half.

Originally Posted by CCR

Hey, I am starting a new thread, wanna do a check with all forummers,many one out looking for condos or selling, are there still buyers? Is the market still warm and prices firm or the market is dead cold?

**land118** · 12-02-11, 13:58

Originally Posted by teddybear

In CCR, many sellers took their properties off the market. Supply drop by more than half.

I asked my Agent friend in Jan 2011 to alert me on a short list of condos in CCR that I will be happy to view. In the First week, he say most on holidays, then cooling measures came out, yesterday he buzz me say listings that were scheduled for for sales 3th wk of Jan 2011 were taken off, now after CNY, still no listings for me to view this weekend. Would presume, some owners are also waiting to see how sentiments pent out before they list only if prices are within their expectations

**med80009** · 12-02-11, 15:21

I would think that many of the condos, especially the suburbia mass market ones that have just TOPed or estimated to do so in the next 1-2 years, contributed to the fair amount of activity in the past year.

My impression is that most people bought it during 2009 recession time may not have purchased those for investment purposes but for self-stay. They incidentally hit the property wave of 2010 and since there is profit of few hundred K to be bagged, why not sell if the price is right ?

With the new punitive cooling measures, it will be difficult to make a sale without lowering the offer price which no one is willing. Therefore, might as well not sell, self-stay, rent-out, or leave empty.

**ymgsterling** · 12-02-11, 15:37

Spoke to a few agents, they noted that CCR and
RCR; volume drops but price maintaining or even
trending upwards slightly for some developments.
Personlly, I doubt we are going to see any downward
price adjustment.

**rattydrama** · 12-02-11, 16:02

before 30 Aug 2010 cooling meausre, a D13 ppty I bio was around 800K thereabout. After 30 Aug went up to 900K, now 1m at least.

price seems to be trending upwards and I think this is because the new launch are priced much higher so the older ones (in fact not very old) climb up as well.

40% dp damper the sales. However, many hardcore property investors will think once 40% downpayment is removed, the price will chiong. With this mentality, I dont see that the price will thrend downwards at the current economic situation.

interest rate still yet to increase even though prediction is it will move up soon.

so it is expected to have that situation of unwilling buyer and seller.

I am thinking with low transaction, gov will earn less in tax. Lets see what is next from government to push the market. Government need funds to run the city state right?

**med80009** · 12-02-11, 16:08

Originally Posted by rattydrama

I am thinking with low transaction, gov will earn less in tax. Lets see what is next from government to push the market. Government need funds to run the city state right?

And to replenish the coffers after handing out budget goodies to appease the masses..

**westman** · 12-02-11, 16:15

Originally Posted by rattydrama

before 30 Aug 2010 cooling meausre, a D13 ppty I bio was around 800K thereabout. After 30 Aug went up to 900K, now 1m at least.

price seems to be trending upwards and I think this is because the new launch are priced much higher so the older ones (in fact not very old) climb up as well.

40% dp damper the sales. However, many hardcore property investors will think once 40% downpayment is removed, the price will chiong. With this mentality, I dont see that the price will thrend downwards at the current economic situation.

interest rate still yet to increase even though prediction is it will move up soon.

so it is expected to have that situation of unwilling buyer and seller.

I am thinking with low transaction, gov will earn less in tax. Lets see what is next from government to push the market. Government need funds to run the city state right?

See what happened to HK and shanghai property market? Yes, volume down substantially but price still holding. Unless there is a catastrophic event or extreme cooling measures, price correction may not happened at all.

**rattydrama** · 12-02-11, 16:18

Originally Posted by med80009

And to replenish the coffers after handing out budget goodies to appease the masses..

see..everyone is chasing after money how can property price not moving?

**rattydrama** · 12-02-11, 16:19

haha... similar questions was asked over time but same conclusion still. holding power is key.

Originally Posted by westman

See what happened to HK and shanghai property market? Yes, volume down substantially but price still holding. Unless there is a catastrophic event or extreme cooling measures, price correction may not happened at all.

**westman** · 12-02-11, 16:30

Originally Posted by rattydrama

haha... similar questions was asked over time but same conclusion still. holding power is key.

Precisely! Unless owners see no purpose to holding on the "extra" properties, why should they letting go at lower psf?

As a matter of facts, garment should do something to developers and not simply putting in measures to "cool" buyers and at the same time selling more state lands for additional coffers.

If developer's asking dropped, all nearby projects might drop in psf as well, possible?

Thus, putting in more control such as curbing developer's rental, "chopping" or implement compulsive selling to non affiliate parties for all new projects might helps to alleviate the price pressure.

Rules can be lefted when required just like SSD for example.

Is garment afraid of touching developers? Bully the sheeps and dare not to touch the wolf....?

**kingkong1984** · 12-02-11, 16:43

There is a time for everything.

Before elections and after elections. Some patterns never change.

**mantrix** · 12-02-11, 17:00

Prevent foreigners from buying can liao

**teddybear** · 12-02-11, 17:12

All those 4 years SSD and lower LTV seem to affect resale properties transactions more than new launch as buyers don't have to come out with 40% downpayment CASH immediately and also can wait as property under construction and by the time TOP 4 years is over (not hit by the 4 years SSD). Policy seem skewed and make new launch even more favorable than resale?

Originally Posted by westman

Precisely! Unless owners see no purpose to holding on the "extra" properties, why should they letting go at lower psf?

As a matter of facts, garment should do something to developers and not simply putting in measures to "cool" buyers and at the same time selling more state lands for additional coffers.

If developer's asking dropped, all nearby projects might drop in psf as well, possible?

Thus, putting in more control such as curbing developer's rental, "chopping" or implement compulsive selling to non affiliate parties for all new projects might helps to alleviate the price pressure.

Rules can be lefted when required just like SSD for example.

Is garment afraid of touching developers? Bully the sheeps and dare not to touch the wolf....?

**DC33_2008** · 12-02-11, 17:14

MM said fewer foreigners, slower growth. More influx of foreigners will come and property will move again in sales and rental.

**ymgsterling** · 12-02-11, 17:19

Garment should only managed the HDB flats,
and assured pple of their 1st home.
For private residents, these should be left to
market forces, demand and supply. These
buyers are mature and capable to manage their
finances etc.

Originally Posted by mantrix

Prevent foreigners from buying can liao

**devilplate** · 12-02-11, 17:19

Originally Posted by teddybear

All those 4 years SSD and lower LTV seem to affect resale properties transactions more than new launch as buyers don't have to come out with 40% downpayment CASH immediately and also can wait as property under construction and by the time TOP 4 years is over (not hit by the 4 years SSD). Policy seem skewed and make new launch even more favorable than resale?

of coz la...a few of us oredi pointed out last time....

govt still got many GLS in the pipeline leh.... must protect developers wat....they creates many jobs wor....

**devilplate** · 12-02-11, 17:21

Originally Posted by ymgsterling

Garment should only managed the HDB flats,
and assured pple of their 1st home.
For private residents, these should be left to
market forces, demand and supply. These
buyers are mature and capable to manage their
finances etc.

40% LTV is a wise move .....must protect local banks mah in case shyt hits....but SSD more like turning ppl into new launches...

a few forummers oredi bot into new launches after latest cooling measures....

**teddybear** · 12-02-11, 17:28

Buyers better watch out especially those small and medium size developers because if these developers close shop (due to cash flow problem or run away with money) then they will lose their trousers! It seems that all this has gone into the wind since we are seeing new launch prices being higher than those new TOP properties in the same vicinity!. When interest rate shoots up, these heavily leveraged developers will be the first to go ka-poom!

If we do the calculation, it is actually better to run away with the money after collecting first 20-50% than to complete the properties (very common in the olden days even in Singapore, and is common in Malaysia even now).

Originally Posted by devilplate

of coz la...a few of us oredi pointed out last time....

govt still got many GLS in the pipeline leh.... must protect developers wat....they creates many jobs wor....

**kingkong1984** · 12-02-11, 18:49

Teddy, not likely to happen in Singapore.

We have measures!

Haha... Got project account lah, all in and developer take out in phases.

**gemstone** · 12-02-11, 19:12

Originally Posted by teddybear

All those 4 years SSD and lower LTV seem to affect resale properties transactions more than new launch as buyers don't have to come out with 40% downpayment CASH immediately and also can wait as property under construction and by the time TOP 4 years is over (not hit by the 4 years SSD). Policy seem skewed and make new launch even more favorable than resale?

oh oh,now that you openly point out the 'hole' ....., what if they decides to twitch policy for new launch to 4 years from TOP!

**DaytonaSS** · 12-02-11, 19:20

Originally Posted by gemstone

oh oh,now that you openly point out the 'hole' ....., what if they decides to twitch policy for new launch to 4 years from TOP!

Govt selling land leh, I guess they won't hit their own foot ba. End of day they need developers to build for influx of population.... If it happens then it's lose lose situation

**rattydrama** · 12-02-11, 19:29

Originally Posted by mantrix

Prevent foreigners from buying can liao

foreigners bring in $ to SG, should not exclude them.

**akow** · 12-02-11, 19:32

Originally Posted by rattydrama

before 30 Aug 2010 cooling meausre, a D13 ppty I bio was around 800K thereabout. After 30 Aug went up to 900K, now 1m at least.

interest rate still yet to increase even though prediction is it will move up soon.

so it is expected to have that situation of unwilling buyer and seller.

I am thinking with low transaction, gov will earn less in tax. Lets see what is next from government to push the market. Government need funds to run the city state right?

Those analysts who said interest rate rise from 2nd half 2011, is not true.
Sibor rate is closely related to US interest rate. Will US jobless at record high rate, & US presidential election due 2012, US interest rate remain low until 2012.

So far no measures to restrict foreigners to buy.
With MAS policy of strengtening SGD$, more foreigners will buy here.

Price drop? Not this year, unless global recession..

**rattydrama** · 12-02-11, 19:34

Originally Posted by gemstone

oh oh,now that you openly point out the 'hole' ....., what if they decides to twitch policy for new launch to 4 years from TOP!

no impact to those who bought new launches project after the latest cooling measures until another new rule kicks in.

can gov and all other agencies cope with so many changes within such a short period?

**kingkong1984** · 12-02-11, 19:43

Originally Posted by akow

Those analysts who said interest rate rise from 2nd half 2011, is not true.
Sibor rate is closely related to US interest rate. Will US jobless at record high rate, & US presidential election due 2012, US interest rate remain low until 2012.

So far no measures to restrict foreigners to buy.
With MAS policy of strengtening SGD$, more foreigners will buy here.

Price drop? Not this year, unless global recession..

Yes, price drop unlikely unless due to another global recession.

**Rysk** · 12-02-11, 20:22

I still seeing most of the projects price maintain.. and price still creeping up in some projects.. but the volume is down

sh · 12-02-11, 20:25

All those people waiting for a "firesale" is going to be soooooo disappointed

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