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Thread: Drinking poison to quench thirst

  1. #1
    Senior

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    Default Drinking poison to quench thirst

    I read this article by Andy Xie in Jan 2010. It proved to be remarkably accurate now. He has been quite accurate in many of his articles. Some people are just amazing to be able to see the big picture. Enjoy.

    [URL="http://www.cibmagazine.com.cn/Columnists/Andy_Xie.asp?id=1201&drinking_poison_to_quench_thirst.html"]http://www.cibmagazine.com.cn/Columnists/Andy_Xie.asp?id=1201&drinking_poison_to_quench_thirst.html[/URL]

  2. #2
    I sell Cheese Pie

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    What do you expect from a chinaman?

  3. #3
    Music of the night

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    He is right but 2012 may not be the year as there is no sign speculative money is chasing US housing market ... the sector that Wall Street is stuck in the mud. If you see the US housing market having a yoy price increase of 10% with similar wage growth then that is the start of tightening cycle

  4. #4
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geylang OKT
    What do you expect from a chinaman?
    is that remark a negative or positive tone?
    What has being chinaman has to do with anything?

  5. #5
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    He is right but 2012 may not be the year as there is no sign speculative money is chasing US housing market ... the sector that Wall Street is stuck in the mud. If you see the US housing market having a yoy price increase of 10% with similar wage growth then that is the start of tightening cycle
    crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
    So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

    No need to know the reason behind the bust.
    It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

    For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?

  6. #6
    I sell Cheese Pie

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    is that remark a negative or positive tone?
    What has being chinaman has to do with anything?
    Before I answer, I must ask if you are a chinaman first

  7. #7
    Music of the night

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
    So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

    No need to know the reason behind the bust.
    It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

    For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?
    History cannot be used to predict future. I don't think there is any serious danger of bust until STI hits 4,800 or Shanghai A-share crossing 6k. Even then, gain in property market prices will be capped by SG government draconian measures but just don't expect the OCR prices to go back to 600-700psf ...

  8. #8
    Exalted

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    STI haven even touch 3800pts.....

    by right every cycle, it shd break previous peak....not unless the whole country economy is gg downhill

    btw, HPH IPO anyone? deadline 14mar

  9. #9
    Exalted

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
    So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

    No need to know the reason behind the bust.
    It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

    For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?
    me yng bird....but by looking at the PPI history chart.....SG PPI boom all the way after 1985 till 1996 ......more den 7yrs....tats the golden period.....

    this cycle 2009 till......ppty cycle hard to predict

  10. #10
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    me yng bird....but by looking at the PPI history chart.....SG PPI boom all the way after 1985 till 1996 ......more den 7yrs....tats the golden period.....

    this cycle 2009 till......ppty cycle hard to predict
    wasn't there a recession in 1990-1991?

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