Drinking poison to quench thirst

[hyenergix]

I read this article by Andy Xie in Jan 2010. It proved to be remarkably accurate now. He has been quite accurate in many of his articles. Some people are just amazing to be able to see the big picture. Enjoy.

http://www.cibmagazine.com.cn/Column...ch_thirst.html

[Geylang OKT]

What do you expect from a chinaman?

[phantom_opera]

He is right but 2012 may not be the year as there is no sign speculative money is chasing US housing market ... the sector that Wall Street is stuck in the mud. If you see the US housing market having a yoy price increase of 10% with similar wage growth then that is the start of tightening cycle

[hopeful]

What do you expect from a chinaman?

is that remark a negative or positive tone?
What has being chinaman has to do with anything?

[hopeful]

He is right but 2012 may not be the year as there is no sign speculative money is chasing US housing market ... the sector that Wall Street is stuck in the mud. If you see the US housing market having a yoy price increase of 10% with similar wage growth then that is the start of tightening cycle

crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

No need to know the reason behind the bust.
It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?

[Geylang OKT]

is that remark a negative or positive tone?
What has being chinaman has to do with anything?

Before I answer, I must ask if you are a chinaman first

[phantom_opera]

crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

No need to know the reason behind the bust.
It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?

History cannot be used to predict future. I don't think there is any serious danger of bust until STI hits 4,800 or Shanghai A-share crossing 6k. Even then, gain in property market prices will be capped by SG government draconian measures but just don't expect the OCR prices to go back to 600-700psf ...

[devilplate]

STI haven even touch 3800pts.....

by right every cycle, it shd break previous peak....not unless the whole country economy is gg downhill

btw, HPH IPO anyone? deadline 14mar

[devilplate]

crisis occur every 4-7 years. part of business cycle
So his prediction of crisis in 2012 is on the early side.

No need to know the reason behind the bust.
It may not be the housing market. It can be other reasons.

For the old birds, is there any boom cycle that exceed 7 years?

me yng bird....but by looking at the PPI history chart.....SG PPI boom all the way after 1985 till 1996 ......more den 7yrs....tats the golden period.....

this cycle 2009 till......ppty cycle hard to predict

[hopeful]

me yng bird....but by looking at the PPI history chart.....SG PPI boom all the way after 1985 till 1996 ......more den 7yrs....tats the golden period.....

this cycle 2009 till......ppty cycle hard to predict

wasn't there a recession in 1990-1991?

[hopeful]

History cannot be used to predict future. I don't think there is any serious danger of bust until STI hits 4,800 or Shanghai A-share crossing 6k. Even then, gain in property market prices will be capped by SG government draconian measures but just don't expect the OCR prices to go back to 600-700psf ...

I love it when you say that, wont be any bust until STI hits 4,800.
Time to buy MSCI STI futures in a big time. More bang for buck.

[phantom_opera]

I love it when you say that, wont be any bust until STI hits 4,800.
Time to buy MSCI STI futures in a big time. More bang for buck.

Futures can leverage more but you must ensure you can meet the margin call & you must time it correctly (e.g. sudden news about Korean war may trigger margin call etc) hoh hoh For property, banks normally will not make the margin call as long as you serve your bank loan and you can still rent out to hold out. So high risk high gain, low risk low gain, no risk no gain.