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Thread: Jessica Cheam: Ghost towns vs fewer homes

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    Default Jessica Cheam: Ghost towns vs fewer homes

    Report taken from the Straits Times, Monday, March 21 2011

    HDB should aim for sweet spot in the supply of flats
    Jessica Cheam, Housing Correspondent


    When the Committee of Supply sat in Parliament recently, the National Development Ministry was asked if it could have anticipated the surge in demand for Housing Board (HDB) flats that has led to the record-high resale flat prices seen today.

    Could HDB and the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority, for example, have been more coordinated in monitoring the influx of foreigners and its impact on housing demand?

    The argument is that if HDB had seen it coming, it should have built more flats earlier and eased the current supply crunch.

    In answering the question, Minister Mah Bow Tan invoked images of the infamous HDB "ghost towns". It was less than a decade ago that a surfeit of completed but unsold flats led to many near-empty HDB blocks in areas like Sembawang, Jurong West, and Sengkang.

    In 2005, there were still a staggering number of about 10,000 flats that were languishing in the market unsold.

    "Home-owners paid a price for the oversupply then, "said Mr Mah, recalling the concern from citizens about safety, theft and deterioration of the empty flats.

    Others griped about the negative effect the overhang of unsold flats was having on home prices.

    Now, Singapore seems to have swung from one extreme to the other - from oversupply to undersupply. There is much unhappiness about the latter, but people have forgotten that oversupply is just as bad as undersupply, said Mr Mah.

    The Government's challenge, therefore, is to find the "sweet spot that is not too much, not too little", he added.

    It's worth looking at both these statements more closely. Is an oversupply of flats really just as bad as an undersupply? I think many would disagree, for two reasons.

    The first is that an oversupply of flats is a hyper-local problem that affects only certain new towns. For those who do not live in them or near them, the problem is out of sight and out of mind.

    An undersupply of flats, on the other hand, is very much a national problem that affects all young married couples and others such as upgraders.

    Second, an oversupply problem potentially depresses flat prices, but this affects mostly potential sellers, who already have a home.

    An undersupplied market, on the other hand, affects buyers who do not yet have a home to call their own and are in urgent need of one to start families.

    They also include upgraders who need more space because their children have grown.

    The impact is more immediate on a wider spectrum of the population - people who want a home so they can move on with their lives.

    This unhappiness could translate into a higher cost, politically, compared with an oversupply situation, for the current Government.

    This brings us to the second of Mr Mah's points: that however difficult it may be, it is critical for the Government to find the "sweet spot" between the two evils.

    Logically, this means finding some sort of middle ground between two systems that have been at opposite extremes.

    HDB used to have a queueing system where it would build and complete flats before they were sold to buyers in the queue. This exposed HDB to considerable holding risk. If HDB misjudged the demand, or if demand evaporated for some reason, the result would be a big stock of unwanted, empty flats.

    After the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis and theoversupply situation in the early part of the last decade, HDB switched to the build-to-order (BTO) scheme. Here, the opposite is true and HDB bears minimal risk: It builds a project only if there is a certain number of buyers for the flats.

    Perhaps finding that "sweet spot" requires fine-tuning this supply mechanism to something in-between: that is HDB could consider permanently maintaining a buffer of completed flats.

    This idea had been mooted before by MP Cynthia Phua (Aljunied GRC), who asked if HDB could consider keeping a stock of ready flats for families who are in urgent need of a home.

    Mr Mah had pointed out that although HDB does not plan for a buffer, there is a reality of buffer of flats over and above the BTO flats that are available, and they have shorter waiting times.

    These available flats are leftovers from other HDB schemes - such as the Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme and surplus BTO flats - which are sold under HDB's sales of balance flats exercise.

    In a market like the current one, however, this buffer almost completely disappears. Recent BTO projects have also seen 95 per cent take-up rates, which means that in the coming years, there are unlikely to be many buffer flats.

    Looking back, perhaps what the HDB could have done - and what some MPs have mooted before - is build 10 - 20 per cent extra new flats each year as part of a "steady state" policy. The flats would be built regardless of whether or not they are bought at launch.

    To minimise the risk of "ghost towns" of empty flats, the HDB could plan it such that these flats are scattered in projects across the island, on plots that are perhaps extentions of established estates like Tampines or Yishun.

    By the time the flats are built, the allure of immediate occupation would naturally attract buyers who are reluctant to wait three years for a new flat but who are also unwilling to pay the higher premium associated with resale flats.

    If demand is weak, such as in an economic downturn, the HDB will have to hold on to the unsold units, but the holding risk is minimised compared with the old system.

    If demand is strong, the HDB will have to hold on to the unsold units, but the holding risk is minimised compared with the old system.

    If demand is strong, the HDB will not be left high and dry with nothing in reserve to offer. This buffer may then help alleviate the unhappiness on the ground.

    Of course, there are risks associated with building extra flats. The HDB is answerable if thousands of completed flats are unoccupied.

    The question turns on whether the public regards new HDB flats more as a necessity or luxury. (Just like DBSS! Is this necessary? Why are they priced so high? Can the resale price match the purchased price?)

    The government would never be faulted for stockpiling emergency supplies of essential items like rice, for example. If HDB flats are more like necessities, then the risks of undersupply outweigh that of oversupply.

    If the experience of the last 10 years is anything to go by, finding that "sweet spot" between oversupply and undersupply would be well worth HDB's effort.

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    http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+M...13-179615.html



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    Jessica CheamFri, Nov 13, 2009
    The Straits Times


    http://www.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gifhttp://www.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif

    Record $653,000 for 4-room flat
    http://www.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif[

    Photo: The four-year-old 969sqft unit at Forfar Heights, Strathmore Avenue, is just five minutes walk from Queenstown MRT station, and on the top, 40th floor of the block.

    The price paid by the Indonesian buyer is about 2.5 times the $262,000 the seller and his wife paid a few years ago.]


    By Jessica Cheam


    A FOUR-ROOM Queenstown HDB flat has sold for $653,000, setting a new record for price per sq ft (psf), amid continuing red-hot demand for resale flats.




    The buyers, a male Indonesian permanent resident and a Singaporean woman, could have bought a condominium unit in an outlying area for the price.

    But they were won over by the location, just five minutes walk from Queenstown MRT station, and on the top, 40th floor of the block, with unblocked views of greenery from all windows.


    The four-year-old 969sqft unit at Forfar Heights, Strathmore Avenue, sold for $68,000 above valuation - a level determined by an independent valuer.


    This works out to $674 psf, smashing the previous record of $609 psf, achieved in January last year, by about 10 per cent.


    This may be an unusually high price but resale prices have been moving up.


    Recent Housing Board data shows resale flat prices surged 3.8 per cent in the first nine months of the year, reaching a historic level - surpassing even that of the 1997 property peak.


    The deal was brokered by Mr Chris Neo, 32, and Kelvin Lim, 28, marketing directors of ERA Realty. Mr Neo told The Straits Times yesterday that the price was good for the prime location.


    'Although at that price you could buy a private property somewhere else, at this location, you wouldn't be able to get private property for less than $900 psf,' said Mr Neo, who has three years' experience and specialises in HDB flats in Queenstown.


    He clinched the deal by persuading the vendors, who had not been looking to sell, to part with their home - promising a good price. He then trawled property websites to look for potential buyers.


    The buyers declined to be interviewed.


    However, seller Michael Nandakumaran, 55, was thrilled. 'We were surprised that we could achieve this price, but are very glad about it,' he said.


    The final selling price is about 2.5 times the $262,000 he and his wife paid a few years ago when their flat was selected for HDB's en bloc redevelopment scheme.


    They paid a designer $60,000 to renovate their Queenstown home.
    The couple, who have three children, are off to live in Jurong East in an HDB flat.


    HDB's latest data shows four-room units in the Strathmore Avenue block sold for between $501,000 and $595,000 between February and June.


    The latest record stunned some industry observers. Ngee Ann Polytechnic real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak said it was 'highly unusual' for buyers to pay that price when they could get a private condominium unit, albeit in an outlying estate.


    Still, he feels that this could be the first of more to come as HDB resale flat prices creep up. 'The record will stand for a couple of quarters and if prices keep climbing, we'll see another record.'


    ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim, however, thinks the sale is a one-off, owing to its good attributes.


    'This is not common at all and is not the general trend. Usually, such sales happen only when there's a well-off buyer who wants a specific location and has the budget for it,' he said.


    Mr Mak added: 'This sale is going to be quoted by sellers and agents to try and get people to pay higher prices. Buyers have to bear in mind such sales are not usual and not get pressured into paying more than they should.'


    [email protected]




    Some record flat prices

    • FOUR ROOMS: November 2009 - $653,000 ($674 psf), Strathmore Avenue
    • Previous record: January 2008 - $590,000 ($609 psf), Jalan Membina
    • THREE ROOMS: December 2007 - $382,000 (about $580 psf), Upper Cross Street
    • ABSOLUTE RECORD: January 2008 - $890,000 ($552 psf), for executive flat in Mei Ling Street
    This article was first published in The Straits Times.

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    http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/sh....php?t=3017840


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    Quote:
    Jessica Cheam :Hi guys, just to clarify. The subtitle wasn't written by me. in fact, we seldom have control over the subtitles as they get edited at levels above us.

    James, thanks for understanding the tough position I'm in. I'm sure you guys can understand the circumstances of working as a journalist in Singapore - but still, that doesn't mean we don't work to push the boundaries. Key is taking little steps. I hope you'll work with me instead of against me

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    Alot of Ms Cheam's question can be answered by listening to LKY's speech about how the value of HDB will never drop. In short our housing policy is a deliberate effort to "enhance" its value so that Singaporean is deeply "entrenched" in the fate of the country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    Alot of Ms Cheam's question can be answered by listening to LKY's speech about how the value of HDB will never drop. In short our housing policy is a deliberate effort to "enhance" its value so that Singaporean is deeply "entrenched" in the fate of the country.
    I think by now you can see and should know HDB alone is not enough to make Singaporeans stay in Singapore.

    Not even NS can make Singaporeans stay in Singapore.

    When you voice disapprovals at government, government just dismissed it as complaints.

    More and more opportunities are lost as FTs swarmed the job market.

    Buying and selling property does not benefit all Singaporeans.

    You sell high but need to pay higher for next flat. Only government earn in this property musical chairs.

    Open your eyes, flats raising in value artificially is not sustainable in long run.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    I think by now you can see and should know HDB alone is not enough to make Singaporeans stay in Singapore.

    Not even NS can make Singaporeans stay in Singapore.

    When you voice disapprovals at government, government just dismissed it as complaints.

    More and more opportunities are lost as FTs swarmed the job market.

    Buying and selling property does not benefit all Singaporeans.

    You sell high but need to pay higher for next flat. Only government earn in this property musical chairs.

    Open your eyes, flats raising in value artificially is not sustainable in long run.
    why u want to be a "hidden" hero complaining complaining and complaining? if u are so unhappy go to he front stage and voice out yr anger. this u complain that u also complain. just say it out "WHAT DO U WANT" confused old man!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ay123
    why u want to be a "hidden" hero complaining complaining and complaining? if u are so unhappy go to he front stage and voice out yr anger. this u complain that u also complain. just say it out "WHAT DO U WANT" confused old man!!


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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    ............
    When you voice disapprovals at government, government just dismissed it as complaints...........
    You are being dismissive of AY123 as PAP government is being dismissive of complaints.The pot calling the kettle black .

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    You are being dismissive of AY123 as PAP government is being dismissive of complaints.The pot calling the kettle black .

    Nope I am not.

    You should read his threads, it is not complaints, it is plain trolling,accusing with no facts and inciting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ay123
    why u want to be a "hidden" hero complaining complaining and complaining? if u are so unhappy go to he front stage and voice out yr anger. this u complain that u also complain. just say it out "WHAT DO U WANT" confused old man!!

    another place..speaker corner,,,

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    another place..speaker corner,,,
    Wenqing dun even dare to reveal his vote.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    Wenqing dun even dare to reveal his vote.....
    Do not be absurd.

    When you say such things, people will laugh at your ignorance.

    Vote is secret and many people do not reveal their voting pattern.

    From election department, to PAP, to Opposition, all say the same thing.

    Surely as adult, you should know this by now.

    http://geraldgiam.sg/2010/09/your-vote-is-secret/


    Your vote is secret

    By Gerald Giam


    Many Singaporeans harbour the misconception that their vote during elections is not secret.

    I’ve talked to many people, both educated and less educated, and the overwhelming majority seem to think this way.

    This is despite the fact that at every election, the Elections Department takes pains to communicate to voters two main points: Voting is compulsory, and voting is secret. I guess this is a point that Singaporeans just refuse to believe our government about.


    It is even more unfortunate that some persist in perpetuating this urban myth, which only serves to strike more fear into the hearts of Singaporeans who are thinking of voting for the opposition.

    A letter in Temasek Review today exhorted Singaporeans to spoil their votes because, the writer reasoned, then the PAP won’t “mark” you for voting against them and if there are enough invalid votes, it will indirectly increase the opposition’s share of the valid vote.


    This is wrong on many counts. I’ll highlight just two: Firstly, the PAP does not know which party you voted for, so they won’t know who to “mark”, even if they wanted to. Secondly, invalid votes do not factor in the final count, which is based on valid votes.

    This means that if there were 10 votes–six for the PAP, three for the opposition and one spoiled–the final tally is 66.6 per cent to the PAP (six divided by nine, with the spoiled vote excluded), not 60 per cent.


    Let’s be very clear: YOUR VOTE IS SECRET. I will take you through the whole balloting process to see why:


    1. On Polling Day, each voter at the polling station is issued a ballot paper without his name on it. (I’ll talk about the serial numbers later.)

    He/she marks the ballot paper in a booth out of sight of anyone else. No cameras are permitted in the polling station so there is no way to observe how voters vote.

    The voter then folds up the paper and drops it in the ballot box.

    Throughout the day, counting agents from each party are at the polling station to ensure the ballot boxes are not opened.


    2. At the close of polling, usually at 8pm on the same day, the ballot boxes are sealed with tamper-proof seals (which are signed over by the candidates) and transported to the Counting Centre.


    3. At the Counting Centre, the ballot boxes from the polling stations are unsealed in the presence of the candidates and their assistants and emptied in a common heap.

    The election officials (who are civil servants) then count the votes in full view of the candidates from all contesting parties, who ensure that the votes are counted properly and the election officials follow all the rules.


    4. Immediately after counting, the votes, together with all the relevant records, the stubs of the ballot papers and any unused ballot papers are sealed in the boxes (again with tamper-proof seals) and transported to the Supreme Court vault for storage.


    5. Six months later, if there are no disputes over the outcome of the election, the sealed boxes are transported to the incineration plant, where, in the presence of all the candidates (including the losers), the votes and records are completely destroyed by fire.


    As you can see from above, at no point are the boxes opened without the candidates or representatives from all the contesting parties being present.


    Frequently asked questions

    Q. What about the serial numbers on the ballot papers?

    This is a safeguard against election fraud such as bringing counterfeit ballot papers into the polling station, voter impersonation or casting ballot papers which have been marked by others.

    Many other countries, including the UK, have numbered ballot papers. As explained above, there is no opportunity for the election officials or candidates to peek at the votes and match them against the electoral roll.

    Remember there are no names on the voting slips, and if one wanted to match the serial numbers, one would have to sift through a huge list of thousands of voters in full view of the candidates.

    It is possible, though, that in the event of a disputed outcome, the courts could order that the boxes be taken out of storage and the votes recounted.

    However this would again be done in full view of the candidates. In any case, there has been no court order issued to retrieve votes since Singapore first conducted elections in 1948.


    Q. Why does the election official call out my name and voter number at the polling station before giving me the ballot paper?


    So as to enable the representatives of contesting political parties at the polling station to verify and cross out your name on their copies of the electoral register. They will know you voted, but won’t know who you voted for.


    Q. After elections, some politicians say certain blocks supported the ruling party or opposition. Does it mean they know my vote?


    Nobody knows how each individual voted. Each polling station serves about 10 to 20 blocks of flats or a few landed housing estates. They may know the aggregated number from each polling district, but not the individual votes.

    —–
    In summary, I emphasise again that voting is secret. So come the next elections, vote with your conscience, not with fear!

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    tats really funny....twisting my words again and calling ppl ignorant....

    poor wenqing....ok la...happier after calling me ignorant?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    tats really funny....twisting my words again and calling ppl ignorant....

    poor wenqing....ok la...happier after calling me ignorant?
    Nope, I am not happy calling you ignorant.

    I just hope we learn from each other.

    Nobody need to let you know how they are going to vote because voting is secret.

    Hope you understand this and do not troll the thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    Nope, I am not happy calling you ignorant.

    I just hope we learn from each other.

    Nobody need to let you know how they are going to vote because voting is secret.

    Hope you understand this and do not troll the thread.
    i am saying u dare not reveal ur secret vote....so i doubt u will be standing at the speaker corner.....

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    putting the above 2 topics together (ghost town and voting is secret althou polling stations results are known). I hope / think that the ruling party know that having ghost towns was not favoured by the few / first pple staying at those ghost towns.

    Just imagine so much time spent lining up and selection of flats, and then when you get the key finding so high % still empty. then worse still got GSS, pple can walk in, grab, no need to wait and all at 10-20% less than the price you paid.

    I think current system of BTO already quite good, somemore waiting time cut to 2+ yrs .

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    i am saying u dare not reveal ur secret vote....so i doubt u will be standing at the speaker corner.....
    Since you say it is secret, why must reveal. English fail ??

    Why must go Speaker Corner then can discuss current affairs ???

    You getting incoherent.


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    Quote Originally Posted by 2824
    putting the above 2 topics together (ghost town and voting is secret althou polling stations results are known). I hope / think that the ruling party know that having ghost towns was not favoured by the few / first pple staying at those ghost towns.

    Just imagine so much time spent lining up and selection of flats, and then when you get the key finding so high % still empty. then worse still got GSS, pple can walk in, grab, no need to wait and all at 10-20% less than the price you paid.

    I think current system of BTO already quite good, somemore waiting time cut to 2+ yrs .
    In the past until 1990s, HDB built first then Singaporeans buy.

    Now is Singaporeans buy first and then HDB build.Most BTOs need to wait 5 years. Only now than minimum 3 years.

    When banks collapse in 2009, floods happen at Orchard, housing undersupply, despite all the talent and data, the planning still went awry.

    Even huge organisations cannot plan 6 months ahead, let alone couples.

    No couple can plan so far ahead like even 2 years plus to get married and flat thus most couples turn to resale HDB after deciding on wedding date.

    BTO is a hindrance for marriage planning and family planning.

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    I m getting worried wat will happen to sg if opposition ever rules....

    Bto defintely better system den previous one.... There r more economic factors den convenience of married couples....

    Any1 can suggest a better system?

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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    In the past until 1990s, HDB built first then Singaporeans buy.

    Now is Singaporeans buy first and then HDB build.Most BTOs need to wait 5 years. Only now than minimum 3 years.

    When banks collapse in 2009, floods happen at Orchard, housing undersupply, despite all the talent and data, the planning still went awry.

    Even huge organisations cannot plan 6 months ahead, let alone couples.

    No couple can plan so far ahead like even 2 years plus to get married and flat thus most couples turn to resale HDB after deciding on wedding date.

    BTO is a hindrance for marriage planning and family planning.
    BTO also has a specially adverse effect on S'poreans coz we're know to be super KS. So when flats are available for ballot, couples swarm to book their flats. Some of these couples include those who are not even stable. Complications arises should they decide they are not compatible. Sigh. This would then result in empty flats when project is finally completed.

    BTO is designed to avoid oversupply. Building more flats with no buyers is designed to avoid under-supply. Both have pros and cons but I believe the latter is a better option. Allow me to explain.

    If there is under-supply, solutions to build more flats will require at least 3 years. Some couples cannot wait so long or even plan so far ahead. It also delays having children. On the other hand, ghost town scenarios that arise from oversupply is definitely a temporal problem. It all depends on how much losses HDB is willing to bear. How much price reduction they are willing to take and how much perks they are willing to throw in for buyers...

    Although some argue that oversupply will also affect those who already bought those places and not just HDB but these buyers all have 5 years MOP so they can't sell yet. Thus HDB has 5 years to sell those unsold flats and these flat values will appreciate by then. Some also argue that ghost towns pose physical dangers to residents but this can be solved if more police patrols are conducted in these towns. Anyway, low crime doesn't mean no crime so anywhere ghost towns or not, is still susceptible to criminal activities. What guarantee is there that a non-ghost town is safe?

    On the contrary, under-supply would result in many other problems that not only affect couples (buyers) but their family members, low fertility, etc and indirectly the govt too coz they'll have to intervene (especially for low fertitily) to solve all these other problems should they be raised by the buyers. Of course under-supply is not the only factor affecting low fertility rates.

    In short, oversupply becomes HDB's problem to bear the cost. Under-supply becomes the buyers' problem to bear the cost which in long run will also be HDB's problem. Containing the problem in HDB is therefore a better option instead of it spreading one full cycle and then returning to HDB again.

    Just my personal take...
    Last edited by ysyap; 23-03-11 at 12:10.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    I m getting worried wat will happen to sg if opposition ever rules....

    Bto defintely better system den previous one.... There r more economic factors den convenience of married couples....

    Any1 can suggest a better system?
    Based on MBT's explanation, BTO came about coz last time got loads of unsold flats. I gather that govt is basing the need for BTO on statistics alone. However, times change. In the past, excess flats were build coz govt perceived that there was a demand. After some time, the societal pattern changed and govt was slow to detect it thus resulting in oversupply. Now, BTO is causing much discussion too coz many feedback that they can't wait so long and demands are returning. As such, it affected the ppty market so much that govt is pushing out so much land over last 1 year and more this year too. Is it again a case of slow to detect the societal pattern change? Is there a way to predict demands 2 years before hand and start solving future problem now rather than when it arises? Easier said than done but it certainly is worth exploring. I'm no expert in this field but I believe studying past statistics alone might be insufficient. Garnering consistent feedback from the citizens might be more valid and powerful. Here, we are assuming no external factors like financial crisis which are beyond our control are present.

    The key probably is to be very much on the ground to understand future needs of citizens and adopt various system, whether to build more flats or to use BTO. Systems must change together with people. During transitional periods, cost should be bore by both HDB and the citizens. The vital formula is to reduce those transitional periods. HDB might want to consider doing surveys annually (whether online or door to door) to have an idea of the demands of citizens in the next 1 year and so start resolving them today. This might be a better solution than to wait and see, like what MBT said to answer why BTO and stuff based on past statistics.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Based on MBT's explanation, BTO came about coz last time got loads of unsold flats. I gather that govt is basing the need for BTO on statistics alone. However, times change. In the past, excess flats were build coz govt perceived that there was a demand. After some time, the societal pattern changed and govt was slow to detect it thus resulting in oversupply. Now, BTO is causing much discussion too coz many feedback that they can't wait so long and demands are returning. As such, it affected the ppty market so much that govt is pushing out so much land over last 1 year and more this year too. Is it again a case of slow to detect the societal pattern change? Is there a way to predict demands 2 years before hand and start solving future problem now rather than when it arises? Easier said than done but it certainly is worth exploring. I'm no expert in this field but I believe studying past statistics alone might be insufficient. Garnering consistent feedback from the citizens might be more valid and powerful. Here, we are assuming no external factors like financial crisis which are beyond our control are present.

    The key probably is to be very much on the ground to understand future needs of citizens and adopt various system, whether to build more flats or to use BTO. Systems must change together with people. During transitional periods, cost should be bore by both HDB and the citizens. The vital formula is to reduce those transitional periods. HDB might want to consider doing surveys annually (whether online or door to door) to have an idea of the demands of citizens in the next 1 year and so start resolving them today. This might be a better solution than to wait and see, like what MBT said to answer why BTO and stuff based on past statistics.
    supply is fixed but demand is ever changing

    demand suddenly surge up when economy enjoys a V shaped recovery and demand can also suddenly disappear overnight just like end 08 to mid 09....so how we can ever find a better system den BTO?

    leme quote u a real example: a fren of mine gotten a very good queue number for the punggol flats in early 09(the one near to punggol MRT).....he can well afford the price but due to very bad market sentiment.....he decide not to select bcoz he tinks HDB prices gona crash soon and he might be able to buy it later at much cheaper px....until today he still cant get a bto near to MRT and complain about the very hot project fronting the punggol river which he is not selected to choose a unit....

    so how can u accurately predict future demand whereby demand can disappear overnight?

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    supply is fixed but demand is ever changing

    demand suddenly surge up when economy enjoys a V shaped recovery and demand can also suddenly disappear overnight just like end 08 to mid 09....so how we can ever find a better system den BTO?

    leme quote u a real example: a fren of mine gotten a very good queue number for the punggol flats in early 09(the one near to punggol MRT).....he can well afford the price but due to very bad market sentiment.....he decide not to select bcoz he tinks HDB prices gona crash soon and he might be able to buy it later at much cheaper px....until today he still cant get a bto near to MRT and complain about the very hot project fronting the punggol river which he is not selected to choose a unit....

    so how can u accurately predict future demand whereby demand can disappear overnight?
    Supply is never fix unless you mean government fix the supply.

    Mah Bow Tan already said government can curb growing property prices by playing around with supply so how can supply be a fix thing ??

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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    Supply is never fix unless you mean government fix the supply.

    Mah Bow Tan already said government can curb growing property prices by playing around with supply so how can supply be a fix thing ??
    Supply is relatively fixed. It takes a long time to build a flat or SERS.
    Demand more volatile.

    How much does it cost to take queue number? book a flat? or to drop out of queue? or dont want to select a flat?

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    supply is fixed but demand is ever changing

    demand suddenly surge up when economy enjoys a V shaped recovery and demand can also suddenly disappear overnight just like end 08 to mid 09....so how we can ever find a better system den BTO?

    so how can u accurately predict future demand whereby demand can disappear overnight?
    I totally agree with you that such V shaped recovery is absolutely unpredictable and cannot be projected easily. However, I mentioned that apart from such global financial crisis which are beyond our control, we can still exercise control over other factors by conducting periodic surveys in residential areas to understand the ground better. As such, we may not totally eradicate the problem of over or under supplies, we can most certainly minimize it and so reduce unnecessary losses by both HDB and potential buyers.

    That, my friend, will then qualify as a more superior system...

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Supply is relatively fixed. It takes a long time to build a flat or SERS.
    Demand more volatile.

    How much does it cost to take queue number? book a flat? or to drop out of queue? or dont want to select a flat?

    How much time need to sell land and open showflats too.

    As you can see, within short space of 6 months, record number of DBSS, ECs and BTOs are open for booking.

    Supply does not only mean ready built apartments or else supply of sub-sale come from where ??

    Besides, PAP always claim to be able to plan 5-15 years ahead all time.

    When this boast cannot be met, then it suddenly become lead's time fault ?

    Not so simple friend.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    Supply is never fix unless you mean government fix the supply.

    Mah Bow Tan already said government can curb growing property prices by playing around with supply so how can supply be a fix thing ??
    i almost fell off my chair! LOL

    great joke....ok la...dun bother to explain to u....and yah....supply not fixed....u r right....hahahahaha

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by wenqing
    How much time need to sell land and open showflats too.

    As you can see, within short space of 6 months, record number of DBSS, ECs and BTOs are open for booking.

    Supply does not only mean ready built apartments or else supply of sub-sale come from where ??

    Besides, PAP always claim to be able to plan 5-15 years ahead all time.

    When this boast cannot be met, then it suddenly become lead's time fault ?

    Not so simple friend.
    watever ur reasoning.....so can u come up with a better system to replace BTO??

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