Contrasting figures from NUS SRPI vs URA Index

[AK47]

Now which is more accurate?

While SPRI Feb figures (only resale data is collected) indicates a sharp fall for Outside Central. URA index is the exact opposite, showing strong growth for OCR.

Is there a good explaination for the discrepencies? Which index should you believe?

Could it be URA index takes in new launches the index is hence pushed upward as developers launches their suburban projects higher and higher while resale remain sluggish?

And what happen to CCR? SPRI show good figures for Jan and Feb but URA is only 0.9%. Is it CCR new launches are fewer and priced moderately?

What does this tell us?

[sh]

yeah.... i'm confused too....

adds fuel to the CCR vs OCR fire....

[DaytonaSS]

Now which is more accurate?

While SPRI Feb figures (only resale data is collected) indicates a sharp fall for Outside Central. URA index is the exact opposite, showing strong growth for OCR.

Is there a good explaination for the discrepencies? Which index should you believe?

Could it be URA index takes in new launches the index is hence pushed upward as developers launches their suburban projects higher and higher while resale remain sluggish?

And what happen to CCR? SPRI show good figures for Jan and Feb but URA is only 0.9%. Is it CCR new launches are fewer and priced moderately?

What does this tell us?

That what i thought..... see this.... The NUS index seems better as it is for completed properties. New projects like H2O seems to be push boundaries for non matured estates.

1 April 2011
URA releases flash 1st quarter 2011
private residential property price index
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 1st Quarter 2011.
Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 194.8 points in the 4th Quarter 2010 to 198.8 points in the 1st Quarter 2011. This represents an increase of 2.1%, compared with 2.7% in the previous quarter (see Annex A). The rate of price increase has moderated for 6 consecutive quarters, since 4th Quarter 2009.
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical regions for 1st Quarter 2011. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 0.9% in Core Central Region, 2.2% in Rest of Central Region and 3.1% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 4th Quarter 2010, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 2.2% in Core Central Region, 1.9% in Rest of Central Region and 2.1% in Outside Central Region.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 1st Quarter 2011 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
Supply in the Pipeline
As at 4Q2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units from private housing projects in the pipeline.1 Of these, 33,000 units were still unsold. This supply can last for about 3 years based on the historical annual take-up over the past 5 years. This supply also does not take into account new sites that were recently sold2 or will be made available for development through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. Prospective home-buyers are advised to take into consideration the ample pipeline supply of private housing, as well as the potential supply of private housing from GLS sites, when making decisions on property purchase.

[DaytonaSS]

Can we conclude that CCR resale is doing better than OCR resale as shown in NUS index, but URA index shows thats when coupled with OCR new launches, projects like H2O with good sales figures are pushing up OCR index although OCR resale is taking a hit?

[Wild Falcon]

One is monthly and one is quarterly. Quarterly will have more data points. U must add all 3 months change in the NUS index to have any meaningful comparison against the URA index. I remember the NUS index fluctuates and it was negative for certain months. In any case, the NUS index percentage change is so small, it probably means prices are flat. I suspect the "basket" of representative properties are different as well. I am surprised the URA index is still so strong though. Aiyoh. Hopefully won't be used as a reason for more cooling measures.

[teddybear]

NUS index only considers resales of completed properties (post TOP).
URA index strongly biased by new sales & sub-sales (those before TOP).
You can see the bubbles bubbles in the air for OCR. Do the buyers have brains buying 99LH OCR condos at >$1100 psf while not buying FH CCR condos at $1500 psf (never mind new vs old because new will become old 5 years later and full renovation costs to OCR-quality only about $60 psf!)

Can we conclude that CCR resale is doing better than OCR resale as shown in NUS index, but URA index shows thats when coupled with OCR new launches, projects like H2O with good sales figures are pushing up OCR index although OCR resale is taking a hit?

[rattydrama]

NUS index only considers resales of completed properties (post TOP).
URA index strongly biased by new sales & sub-sales (those before TOP).
You can see the bubbles bubbles in the air for OCR. Do the buyers have brains buying 99LH OCR condos at >$1100 psf while not buying FH CCR condos at $1500 psf (never mind new vs old because new will become old 5 years later and full renovation costs to OCR-quality only about $60 psf!)

buy OCR FH resale..

[ysyap]

buy OCR FH resale..

Some OCR FH can go as high as $1200+ psf. If CCR don't work hard and OCR continue to work so hard, then in 10 years, OCR and CCR same price...

[DaytonaSS]

Analysts’ views on prices of non-landed private homes in suburban areas

Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 1, 2011 · Leave a Comment


Prices of non-landed private homes in suburban areas have picked up the fastest in the first quarter this year.
Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that price increases in suburban homes beat the overall private property price index, which rose 2.1 per cent to 198.8 points in the quarter.

Analysts said that suburban condominiums may continue to see price increases of around 2 per cent in the coming quarters.
Buying a suburban private home might still be more expensive.
Analysts said the demand in that region is much more resilient than they have anticipated, leading to strong price growth.
Property prices in the suburban areas were up by 3.1 per cent in the first quarter, compared to the 2.1 per cent rise in the fourth quarter of last year.

This is followed by prices in the city fringe areas which grew 2.2 per cent.
And in comparison, the prime city areas only edged up 0.9 per cent.
Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, said: “The fact that the suburban market probably is the most affordable for the moment, also for the fact that I think it represents that people still have this upgrading dream, there is still a lot of demand. And possibly one effect is we have also seen apartments going progressively smaller and that could in a sense raise prices on a per square foot basis. “

Analysts said the launch of fewer high-end projects in the prime areas for the quarter also contributed to its weaker price increase.
They also said that the suburban region might be more of a developers’ market.

They explained that looking at the NUS Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), which tracks the resale market, private homes prices for the non-central region dipped by 1.5 per cent in February on-month, after a 2.8 per cent appreciation in January.
While it is still early stages, analysts said that this suggest the growth in the suburban or non-central region is likely being propped up by high launch prices set by developers.

Looking ahead, they add that new cooling measures are unlikely as the government is taking a wait-and-see approach for now.
Donald Han, vice chairman of Cushman & Wakefield, said: “In the last three months of the first quarter, we saw a lot of big events that affect the Singapore market and the global market as well, with the uncertainty that is happening in Japan and in the Middle East.

“The true effect on the property market will probably be felt only in the second quarter…so I think the government will not be too hasty in wanting to introduce any more measures.”

Overall, observers said the slower price growth shows that previous cooling measures have kept a lid on rising home prices in the private sector.
And having moderated for six straight quarters, analysts believe that home prices here are in for a soft landing.

URA also said that there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units from private housing projects in the pipeline.
Of these, 33,000 units were still unsold.
This supply also does not take into account new sites that were recently sold or will be made available for development through the Government Land Sales programme.

[DaytonaSS]

Some OCR FH can go as high as $1200+ psf. If CCR don't work hard and OCR continue to work so hard, then in 10 years, OCR and CCR same price...

The factors at play now are size and affordability. On surface seems like OCR psf is going up very fast. My observations is because the size is becoming much smaller. As alot of bros bring up here. The absolute quantum is still ard 800k-1m. The conflicting index information confirms this. The larger older OCR might not be moving well as size is bigger and absolute quantum might be relatively affordable. its a know observations that 1-2 bedders are always sold out in new launches.

SSD 40% on a 2nd property definitely affect buyers who are looking to buy a 2nd property to protect their $$$ from inflation. The affordable quantum/downpayment continues to fuel small small NEW launches units thus pushing OCR URA index upwards.

The above are my personal deduction and observations. Feel free to comment.

[Laguna]

I just checked streetsine
and look like there is no free report on transaction data
have to pay?

[DC33_2008]

Cannot just look at $psf alone. Now, we have to look at $psf and size together. $psf is just too misleading.

Some OCR FH can go as high as $1200+ psf. If CCR don't work hard and OCR continue to work so hard, then in 10 years, OCR and CCR same price...

[DC33_2008]

IMO, it will be better to invest in 2 bedder unit as 3 bedders in good location will be beyond the reach of upgraders. 1 bedder will be too small for a couple with one or two kids unless they are prepared to squeeze. Any advice?

The factors at play now are size and affordability. On surface seems like OCR psf is going up very fast. My observations is because the size is becoming much smaller. As alot of bros bring up here. The absolute quantum is still ard 800k-1m. The conflicting index information confirms this. The larger older OCR might not be moving well as size is bigger and absolute quantum might be relatively affordable. its a know observations that 1-2 bedders are always sold out in new launches.

SSD 40% on a 2nd property definitely affect buyers who are looking to buy a 2nd property to protect their $$$ from inflation. The affordable quantum/downpayment continues to fuel small small NEW launches units thus pushing OCR URA index upwards.

The above are my personal deduction and observations. Feel free to comment.

[DC33_2008]

Some agencies like Orange Tee will luv to provide comprehensive report for you.

I just checked streetsine
and look like there is no free report on transaction data
have to pay?

[AK47]

I think they just removed it yesterday.

I just checked streetsine
and look like there is no free report on transaction data
have to pay?

[DC33_2008]

SISV may be unhappy with them as agents / agencies have to pay for these information.

[teddybear]

Possible? Think not. Give another 10 years and OCR will be "shit" again. Those buying >$1000 psf will reminiscene of those buying Hillview at $1000 psf in 1997 (14 years & still cannot recover)!

Some OCR FH can go as high as $1200+ psf. If CCR don't work hard and OCR continue to work so hard, then in 10 years, OCR and CCR same price...

[sh]

so much for claims of transparency.

No more reason to go onto Streetsine...

[sh]

Some OCR FH can go as high as $1200+ psf. If CCR don't work hard and OCR continue to work so hard, then in 10 years, OCR and CCR same price...

If OCR and CCR is the same price, everyone will buy CCR... that's a no-brainer....

How can that be?

[phantom_opera]

OCR resale near MRT is still climbing, Casa Merah 2br sold @ 1127psf (958sqft) recently.

[land118]

Possible? Think not. Give another 10 years and OCR will be "shit" again. Those buying >$1000 psf will reminiscene of those buying Hillview at $1000 psf in 1997 (14 years & still cannot recover)!

Good point....have relative bought into Hillview condo at that time, till now going to almost break-even....but rental was shitty during those dark days several years back...SARS era worst- no tenant for a period.

[phantom_opera]

With DLT opening 2-3y down the road, I am sure Hillview will shine, just look at the The Lanai forward pricing:

HILLINGTON GREEN HILLVIEW AVENUE Condominium 1 1,275,000 1,356 Strata 940psf Feb-11

THE LANAI HILLVIEW AVENUE Condominium 1 1,831,387 1,302 Strata 1,406psf Nov-10

[AK47]

You pay a premium near MRT for the convienance to get to town.

Why dont just buy in town if prices about the same?

[CCR]

Possible? Think not. Give another 10 years and OCR will be "shit" again. Those buying >$1000 psf will reminiscene of those buying Hillview at $1000 psf in 1997 (14 years & still cannot recover)!

I agree with you totally man... I mean in ten years time, LH property in OCR will be old and lease running down so how to go up? So if ten years time these older OCR property go up to 1300-1400 psf then new launches are 1700 psf ah? Lolx....

[devilplate]

More impt is which area got the most potential for the next few yrs b4 the next downturn

[ysyap]

Possible? Think not. Give another 10 years and OCR will be "shit" again. Those buying >$1000 psf will reminiscene of those buying Hillview at $1000 psf in 1997 (14 years & still cannot recover)!

Those who bought Hillview in 1997 consider sad sad case lor... However, today's OCR market is so different. Not only 1 district climbing but all across the island, from D13, 15, 19, 20 and many other places. Its huge so it's different from the Hillview case.

Anyway, I agree that CCR units are generally decent sized units so net prices are pretty high. psf is misleading but this statistics is still worrying if OCR and CCR have same psf. Like it or not, psf is often used as an indication of prestige. If a Orchard condo asking $1200 psf, everybody will flock to buy it and confirm sold within 1 day of sale. But when AMK condo launched at $1200 psf, loads of people questioned and it was not snatched up like hot cakes.

[teddybear]

As you said, now so widespread, didn't that sound the ringing bell which resulted in 4th cooling measure?
Last time only Hillview 1 sad area, 10 years from now most OCRs will be sad sad case, going to be very widespread. All these people will work forever for the banks & the govt, work until 75 years old to pay off their loans.
You see, the mid & lower income group likely got income increase of 30% over next 10 years (goal of govt). But high income getting 30% within 1 year! (see Low thia khiang comments). So you think OCR can climb faster than CCR?

Those who bought Hillview in 1997 consider sad sad case lor... However, today's OCR market is so different. Not only 1 district climbing but all across the island, from D13, 15, 19, 20 and many other places. Its huge so it's different from the Hillview case.

Anyway, I agree that CCR units are generally decent sized units so net prices are pretty high. psf is misleading but this statistics is still worrying if OCR and CCR have same psf. Like it or not, psf is often used as an indication of prestige. If a Orchard condo asking $1200 psf, everybody will flock to buy it and confirm sold within 1 day of sale. But when AMK condo launched at $1200 psf, loads of people questioned and it was not snatched up like hot cakes.

[phantom_opera]

Cannot use history to judge future. OCR suffered from oversupply of HDB + lack of immigrants after 1997 due to the stupid "build ahead of demand" HDB policy. Now, OCR benefits from 10y of BTOs (build when there is demand) as well as import of 600k PRs earning < 5k per month from 2005-2010.

3r HDB at Bedok Central rental 2k, near MRT even higher .. out of the 600k PRs, how many have bought their HDBs?

I personally know many of such immigrants many of them renting 3r or 4r HDBs still ... I will bet HDB resale price to go up another 10% this year if no further measures targeting it.

[teddybear]

$5k pm can afford what property price? If even entry level OCR also >$1000 psf they can afford to retire at 62 years old mah? No wonder $psf up but absolute quantum stays same, because size keep reducing! There is a limit to how small the unit can be for Say 4 can live in.
I wonder whether MOE check those using MM address to register their child for P1? MM can whole family live in mah?

Cannot use history to judge future. OCR suffered from oversupply of HDB + lack of immigrants after 1997 due to the stupid "build ahead of demand" HDB policy. Now, OCR benefits from 10y of BTOs (build when there is demand) as well as import of 600k PRs earning < 5k per month from 2005-2010.

3r HDB at Bedok Central rental 2k, near MRT even higher .. out of the 600k PRs, how many have bought their HDBs?

I personally know many of such immigrants many of them renting 3r or 4r HDBs still ... I will bet HDB resale price to go up another 10% this year if no further measures targeting it.

[DC33_2008]

The just look at your address and draw a circle of either 1 or 2 km.

$5k pm can afford what property price? If even entry level OCR also >$1000 psf they can afford to retire at 62 years old mah? No wonder $psf up but absolute quantum stays same, because size keep reducing! There is a limit to how small the unit can be for Say 4 can live in.
I wonder whether MOE check those using MM address to register their child for P1? MM can whole family live in mah?