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Thread: Developers less positive about market

  1. #1
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    Default Developers less positive about market

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/St...ry_662897.html

    Apr 30, 2011

    Developers less positive about market


    PROPERTY players are a bit less optimistic about the market than they were previously, according to an industry measure.

    The sentiment index has weakened to 4.9 from 5.7, while the mood for the months ahead also slipped as compared with the fourth quarter, a likely reflection of the recent market cooling measures.

    The index, which is compiled by the National University of Singapore's Department of Real Estate, consists of scores ranging from 0 - the most pessimistic - to 10, which registers a high level of optimism.

    As part of the quarterly survey, developers were asked about their expectations of the new private property launches.

    As a sign of weakening outlook towards the property sector, 62 per cent of developers surveyed expect more residential units to be launched over the next six months compared with 74 per cent in the previous quarter.

    About twice as many developers - around 69 per cent - as compared with the fourth quarter also expect prices to remain flat.

    Only 35 per cent of respondents anticipate greater interest in the collective sale market, down from 52 per cent.

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    The way to overcome this fear is to control the launch of new projects so as to create a pen up demand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    The way to overcome this fear is to control the launch of new projects so as to create a pen up demand.
    With massive oversupply of both hdb and pte units looming in the coming months and weakening interest going forward... how to have pent up demand leh?


    Put it another way... similar to the equities markets.... when all who wanted to buy would have already bought.... what happens next?

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    Those developers who have bought from GLC cannot wait too long to launch. The clock is ticking away for their lease.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geylang OKT
    With massive oversupply of both hdb and pte units looming in the coming months and weakening interest going forward... how to have pent up demand leh?


    Put it another way... similar to the equities markets.... when all who wanted to buy would have already bought.... what happens next?
    oversupply goto wait till 2013 onwards

    vote for 5-82! and u will see instant result

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    oversupply goto wait till 2013 onwards

    vote for 5-82! and u will see instant result
    Sooner than you tink! end 2011 already jialut

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    If Tamp GRC loses, does it mean all the promised BTO and land parcels for sale will all fall through? Then our property prices will soar again??? Huat ah...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    If Tamp GRC loses, does it mean all the promised BTO and land parcels for sale will all fall through? Then our property prices will soar again??? Huat ah...
    if MBT kena voted out.....next CM will be delayed

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    nobody has the right answer

    those who has been running the country for so long face so much challenges

    like any football matches. fans are the ones who think that they are the coach...shouting from bench that striker no good la shld attack from left pass to left midfield la....bla blah blah but when you field these fans, they may just freeze and screw big time on ground.

    same for property mkt..justclike doctor. you dont feel well, doc asks for symptoms and prescribe medicine and see if it works. nope then prescribe stronger medicine otherwise antibiotics..worstcase admit patient to hospital and put on drip

    all can say this and that but when put him/her n MBT shoes and run and call the shots....this seat is hot

    next measures if i am him would be (same like CHina and HK) and avoid any possible bubbl burst is either to mop up liquidity in market attractive bond issuance or raise interest rates (EMI will shoot up investors will think twice)

    from previous cooling measures, MBT gving hint to all not to gear up, within your financial means and not to punt. vicious cycle....private price comes down, same for hdb. shld property prices tumble, alot of property cheonger wld hv been bunt badly like what happened to HK property investors

    if MBT push too hard on HDB prices.....the impact will be on existing HDB prices. some may have used the increased wealth to do business and failed and now want Govt to help. hear so many stories of those in heartland who gave$$ to children or those who fell prey to mistresses....etc

    current situation is like in chinese family third generation wants to split wealth and enjoy. first generation makes the wealth second generation maintain, third generation wants to enjoy. no hard work but all the fast ways to make $$$ like cheong property..casino

    my personal take - inflation is everywhere globally not only in SG. hence govt is saving for rainy days. we see neighbouring country or in mid west (black gold) where certain ppl gets alot of subsidies and govt suppport. see what is the outcome on attitude

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    nobody has the right answer

    those who has been running the country for so long face so much challenges

    like any football matches. fans are the ones who think that they are the coach...shouting from bench that striker no good la shld attack from left pass to left midfield la....bla blah blah but when you field these fans, they may just freeze and screw big time on ground.

    same for property mkt..justclike doctor. you dont feel well, doc asks for symptoms and prescribe medicine and see if it works. nope then prescribe stronger medicine otherwise antibiotics..worstcase admit patient to hospital and put on drip

    all can say this and that but when put him/her n MBT shoes and run and call the shots....this seat is hot

    next measures if i am him would be (same like CHina and HK) and avoid any possible bubbl burst is either to mop up liquidity in market attractive bond issuance or raise interest rates (EMI will shoot up investors will think twice)

    from previous cooling measures, MBT gving hint to all not to gear up, within your financial means and not to punt. vicious cycle....private price comes down, same for hdb. shld property prices tumble, alot of property cheonger wld hv been bunt badly like what happened to HK property investors

    if MBT push too hard on HDB prices.....the impact will be on existing HDB prices. some may have used the increased wealth to do business and failed and now want Govt to help. hear so many stories of those in heartland who gave$$ to children or those who fell prey to mistresses....etc

    current situation is like in chinese family third generation wants to split wealth and enjoy. first generation makes the wealth second generation maintain, third generation wants to enjoy. no hard work but all the fast ways to make $$$ like cheong property..casino

    my personal take - inflation is everywhere globally not only in SG. hence govt is saving for rainy days. we see neighbouring country or in mid west (black gold) where certain ppl gets alot of subsidies and govt suppport. see what is the outcome on attitude
    i enjoyed reading it...cool!

    but MBT cannot simply up the int rates.....our monetary structure and fundamentals vy different

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    if you are now the PM how can you sustain the country...
    1) no natural resources,
    2) no labour competitive advantage unlike china,
    3) no abundant land resources,
    4) highly dependent on others

    think of yourself running a shop selling things and you have other countries as your competitor shops selling other stuf like cooking oil, rice, etc but not your shop...how to get pl into your shop????

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    nowadays no more surprises

    if u c central banks ard the region they now practices "advance notices" styles for you to take time to adjust.

    they or economists will tell you way ahead and you adjust your business/behaviour

    learnt from last crisis

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    read between the lines... but some see property market like stock market hoping for the best(price will continue to rise) that the main reason why sellers are on standoff or non-realistic on prices

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    read between the lines... but some see property market like stock market hoping for the best(price will continue to rise) that the main reason why sellers are on standoff or non-realistic on prices
    self fulfilling prophecy again? nothing wrong until the musical chairs stop....hehe

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    self fulfilling prophecy again? nothing wrong until the musical chairs stop....hehe
    but it will hit one of your countryment
    unless you are not....

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    but it will hit one of your countryment
    unless you are not....
    wat to do....

    ppty market....stock market....

    greed and fear rules....

    always be winners and losers....

    there is no such thing as ALL WINNERS

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    if all of us boh chap...what gahmen think of us?
    useless bunch of children like in chinese family ..wont last 3 generations
    can we call ourselves spoilt brats

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    if all of us boh chap...what gahmen think of us?
    useless bunch of children like in chinese family ..wont last 3 generations
    can we call ourselves spoilt brats
    bro....u machiam tok like a communist

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    wrong..commnunist dont tok like that.

    communist = steam roller no chance 2 tok...execution only

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    if all of us boh chap...what gahmen think of us?
    useless bunch of children like in chinese family ..wont last 3 generations
    can we call ourselves spoilt brats

    Historically, small city states don't last more than 3 generations haa haa....Singapore is the only and most-complete example of a fully sovereign city-state in the world today.


    There is no room for error...or else no more Singapore for your children....or maybe next time u will see Singapore SAR haa haa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    i enjoyed reading it...cool!

    but MBT cannot simply up the int rates.....our monetary structure and fundamentals vy different
    interdependent economies no denial
    u said it right - diff fundamentals /monetary structure
    is it more inferior? can we stand srong if there's another crisis

    read IMF recommendations to asian countries.

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    This is a million dollar question. Ask the PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    if you are now the PM how can you sustain the country...
    1) no natural resources,
    2) no labour competitive advantage unlike china,
    3) no abundant land resources,
    4) highly dependent on others

    think of yourself running a shop selling things and you have other countries as your competitor shops selling other stuf like cooking oil, rice, etc but not your shop...how to get pl into your shop????

  23. #23
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    This is the basic instinct of mankind.
    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    wat to do....

    ppty market....stock market....

    greed and fear rules....

    always be winners and losers....

    there is no such thing as ALL WINNERS

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    Quote Originally Posted by azeoprop
    Historically, small city states don't last more than 3 generations haa haa....Singapore is the only and most-complete example of a fully sovereign city-state in the world today.


    There is no room for error...or else no more Singapore for your children....or maybe next time u will see Singapore SAR haa haa.
    you didnt study the city states of ancient greece or the city states of Italy during the middle ages, that last > 3 generations ?

    and you forgot about Liechtenstein & Monaco in modern times?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    if you are now the PM how can you sustain the country...
    1) no natural resources,
    2) no labour competitive advantage unlike china,
    3) no abundant land resources,
    4) highly dependent on others

    think of yourself running a shop selling things and you have other countries as your competitor shops selling other stuf like cooking oil, rice, etc but not your shop...how to get pl into your shop????
    Appeal to regional leaders' pockets by bribing them.
    Low tax regime ala ireland for companies to set up.

    importantly, ensure the money entrusted by others is safe
    ie no extradition treaty with Indonesia. pay off the leaders not to have extradition treaty.

    My belief is the YOG overblown budget is just a smoke screen. That $200million will go to special fund to bribe regional leaders.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hopeful
    Appeal to regional leaders' pockets by bribing them.
    Low tax regime ala ireland for companies to set up.

    importantly, ensure the money entrusted by others is safe
    ie no extradition treaty with Indonesia. pay off the leaders not to have extradition treaty.

    My belief is the YOG overblown budget is just a smoke screen. That $200million will go to special fund to bribe regional leaders.
    is tat how it works for ur country?

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    sorry for OOT.

    why else Indonesian government dont want to sign extradition treaty with Singapore?
    Money in own pocket more important.
    Up to now, the public dont know where the Rp 6 trillion (S$850million) used to "rescue" Bank Century goes to. The rumor mill is money was used by President SBY to fund his election campaign.

    So that's what I would do if I was PM. Lower taxes, attract FDI, and pay off regional leaders to be "dumb". Andy Xie was "fired" for saying the wrong things.
    Anyway, back to thread. .

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    xpect:
    1) interest rates to go up gradually - installments to increase. less disposable income.
    2) stronger currency to manage inflation esp on imported goods
    3) increasing remittances out of SG - some foreign workers may want to capitalise on their weaker home currencies agst US$
    4) gahmen to release more land banks (increase supply additional benefit-gahmen able to sell at higher price


    ground facts
    1) less sales transactions
    2) more rental transactions
    3) projects TOP many up for sale and rent in OCR. asking prices >30% higher than 2010. sellers testing mkts with high prices - translate into lower transactions no
    4) CCR condos increasing for sale
    5) more launches - developers will not release projects if prices are expected to go up further or release units in batches. other side of the coin - show higher snap up rate - eg 32 sold out of 50 units phase 1 launch versus 300 totalproject units

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd

    current situation is like in chinese family third generation wants to split wealth and enjoy. first generation makes the wealth second generation maintain, third generation wants to enjoy. no hard work but all the fast ways to make $$$ like cheong property..casino

    my personal take - inflation is everywhere globally not only in SG. hence govt is saving for rainy days. we see neighbouring country or in mid west (black gold) where certain ppl gets alot of subsidies and govt suppport. see what is the outcome on attitude
    That is not true. the problem today is not about the poor or freeloader wanting to get their hands on the reserves but more like asking the government to spare some thoughts for the poor and lower income because all the wealth and growth that were generated over the last 5 years have mostly been trapped among the top 10-20% income group. And thats why the rich are getting so much richer, while the poor are drowning in inflation.

    Inflation is happening everywhere, but lower income Singaporeans are suffering much more because of the imbalance of income growth in this country, coupled with imbalance supply in housing, and influx of hot money from overseas, which cause cost of housing (the biggest ticket item) to almost double in 5 years.

    I think its unfair for the government to always give the excuse of saving for raining days when they opening reward themselves with million dollar salary.
    For the poor and lower income group. rainy days, storm, drought etc have all come and go, and yet life for them is getting harder by the day.

    Singaporeans will have to be careful about government plan to depend on our property as retirement asset, because how much our property is worth in future will ultimately depending on how much the future generation can afford. This is actually quite similar to Ponzi scheme where the new buyer will pay for the previous or earlier buyer.

    One of the PAP ministers recently said that in the 80s he bought a 4 room flat for 100+K and sold it for 300+K in 8 to 10 years, and he go on to praise the government's effort in enhancing the value of HDB. But my question is, how long can such trend continue before it break? Can first time how buyer buy a $1m HDB flat? What about 20 years, 30 years, 50 years down the road?

    You dont need an economist to know that this is a dangerous and unsustainable model

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    Hdb started less den 10k n ppl at tat time will say u crazy if u say hdb gona cost u 500k today. U forget tat our papermoney has intrinsic value of zero. Nxt time hdb buyer tat own 1mil hdb doesnt mean they r richer den today buyer buying a 500k flat

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