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Thread: Analysts expect shift in housing policy

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    Default Analysts expect shift in housing policy

    http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNew...ry_670512.html

    May 20, 2011

    Analysts expect shift in housing policy

    By Esther Teo, Property Reporter


    SOME property analysts are anticipating policy shifts on HDB flats and mass market private homes, with the appointment of Mr Khaw Boon Wan as the new National Development Minister.

    They say Mr Khaw, 58, the outgoing Health Minister, is known to be an effective game changer.

    Since housing affordability was a hot-button topic during the elections, the analysts foresee Mr Khaw as being forceful on this issue, at least early on.

    Analysts note that Mr Khaw had volunteered for the portfolio, replacing Mr Mah Bow Tan, who is retiring from the Cabinet and the post he has held since 1999.

    They recall Mr Khaw was parachuted into the Health Ministry after the 2003 Sars crisis. The well-liked politician was instrumental in restoring confidence in charities after the National Kidney Foundation scandal.

    DMG & Partners Securities research co-head Terence Wong said he would not be surprised if Mr Khaw shows determination to make housing more affordable for the young.

    Mr Colin Tan, research and consultancy director at real estate firm Chesterton Suntec International, said Mr Khaw has his 'work cut out for him'.

    'PM Lee did say that the changes will allow for a fresh slate that will look at everything from scratch, so it's possible that Mr Khaw will look towards reshaping and rethinking policies,' he added.

    Industry players say, however, that while it is too soon to identify the changes Mr Khaw may make, his track record of working well under pressure and approachable public persona will stand him in good stead.

    The Government may overhaul other policies - including its immigration policy - to prevent a further run-up in prices and to cater to the increasingly squeezed middle class, analysts say.

    The aim will be to ensure prices rise - or fall - in line with general economic growth, with a focus on the HDB and mass market segments to ensure affordability for the masses, they add.

    The Government had already pledged to review the $8,000 income ceiling for buying HDB flats - unchanged for the past 17 years for first-timers.

    SLP International research head Nicholas Mak said, however, that the Government is unlikely to introduce sweeping measures that would cause a price slump as this would unfairly penalise sellers in the resale market.

    However, it might look to bring down prices of new build-to-order HDB flats so as to draw demand away from the resale market and stem further price gains.

    Last year, private home prices rocketed 17.6 per cent, while HDB resale prices surged 14.1 per cent, upsetting first-time home owners priced out of the market.

    Chesterton's Mr Tan added that policies focused on helping the middle-income group satisfy their housing aspirations are also likely.

    The Government has vowed to pay particular attention to the middle class as it represents 'mainstream Singapore'.

    Property stocks have been weaker since news broke that the Government is reviewing the HDB income ceiling.

    Counters like CapitaLand has lost 4.5 per cent since the May 3 announcement, while Keppel Land has dipped 3 per cent. While other factors could be in play, the Straits Times Index gained 0.6 per cent in the same period.

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    To make housing more affordable to the young, they should just:
    1) Sell new bare-bone HDB flats based on construction costs + land costs (no other extra add-on) and eliminate DBSS HDB flats (since if people want quality and better environment etc, they can go for ECs & private properties).
    2) Return 60% LTV to 90% LTV (since lower LTV means lower affordability)!
    3) Increase huge supply of HDB flats to meet demand which sure make HDB cheap and then no longer need so low LTV of 60%! (can increase back to 90%).

    If they want more support and votes, they should not just make housing more affordable, their housing policies should also be seen as fair and equitable to all, not just to please select groups (e.g. developers? ), including:
    1) Reduce that SSD which is not owners' friendly, not upgraders' friendly, and not fair and equitable to all.
    2) New launch properties SSD should start from TOP date and not S&P date as not fair to resale property buyers (and also sellers vs Developers)!


    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNew...ry_670512.html

    May 20, 2011

    Analysts expect shift in housing policy

    By Esther Teo, Property Reporter


    SOME property analysts are anticipating policy shifts on HDB flats and mass market private homes, with the appointment of Mr Khaw Boon Wan as the new National Development Minister.

    They say Mr Khaw, 58, the outgoing Health Minister, is known to be an effective game changer.

    Since housing affordability was a hot-button topic during the elections, the analysts foresee Mr Khaw as being forceful on this issue, at least early on.

    Analysts note that Mr Khaw had volunteered for the portfolio, replacing Mr Mah Bow Tan, who is retiring from the Cabinet and the post he has held since 1999.

    They recall Mr Khaw was parachuted into the Health Ministry after the 2003 Sars crisis. The well-liked politician was instrumental in restoring confidence in charities after the National Kidney Foundation scandal.

    DMG & Partners Securities research co-head Terence Wong said he would not be surprised if Mr Khaw shows determination to make housing more affordable for the young.

    Mr Colin Tan, research and consultancy director at real estate firm Chesterton Suntec International, said Mr Khaw has his 'work cut out for him'.

    'PM Lee did say that the changes will allow for a fresh slate that will look at everything from scratch, so it's possible that Mr Khaw will look towards reshaping and rethinking policies,' he added.

    Industry players say, however, that while it is too soon to identify the changes Mr Khaw may make, his track record of working well under pressure and approachable public persona will stand him in good stead.

    The Government may overhaul other policies - including its immigration policy - to prevent a further run-up in prices and to cater to the increasingly squeezed middle class, analysts say.

    The aim will be to ensure prices rise - or fall - in line with general economic growth, with a focus on the HDB and mass market segments to ensure affordability for the masses, they add.

    The Government had already pledged to review the $8,000 income ceiling for buying HDB flats - unchanged for the past 17 years for first-timers.

    SLP International research head Nicholas Mak said, however, that the Government is unlikely to introduce sweeping measures that would cause a price slump as this would unfairly penalise sellers in the resale market.

    However, it might look to bring down prices of new build-to-order HDB flats so as to draw demand away from the resale market and stem further price gains.

    Last year, private home prices rocketed 17.6 per cent, while HDB resale prices surged 14.1 per cent, upsetting first-time home owners priced out of the market.

    Chesterton's Mr Tan added that policies focused on helping the middle-income group satisfy their housing aspirations are also likely.

    The Government has vowed to pay particular attention to the middle class as it represents 'mainstream Singapore'.

    Property stocks have been weaker since news broke that the Government is reviewing the HDB income ceiling.

    Counters like CapitaLand has lost 4.5 per cent since the May 3 announcement, while Keppel Land has dipped 3 per cent. While other factors could be in play, the Straits Times Index gained 0.6 per cent in the same period.

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    I think they will allow Singaporeans singles to buy BTO, may be 3r flat only. Many Singaporeans singles are quite pissed off that they cannot buy BTOs.
    3r BTO below 200k is definitely affordable to this group of people.

    They may also force existing owners of HDB with private properties to stay in HDB only i.e. HDBs can never be rented out unless you provide proof that you are overseas and don't own private properties in Singapore

    This will then moderate the prices of HDB resale flats and then existing tenants will be forced to rent condo instead so mass market condo prices will probably stay flat while HDB resale prices down 10-15%.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    And so cause existing hdb owners to be pissed off cos value of their properties plunge?

    LPPL

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    I think they will allow Singaporeans singles to buy BTO, may be 3r flat only. Many Singaporeans singles are quite pissed off that they cannot buy BTOs.
    3r BTO below 200k is definitely affordable to this group of people.

    They may also force existing owners of HDB with private properties to stay in HDB only i.e. HDBs can never be rented out unless you provide proof that you are overseas and don't own private properties in Singapore

    This will then moderate the prices of HDB resale flats and then existing tenants will be forced to rent condo instead so mass market condo prices will probably stay flat while HDB resale prices down 10-15%.
    Last edited by nobrainer32007; 20-05-11 at 22:44. Reason: LPPL

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    tough...high prices..complaint
    low prices also cannot
    then? gahmen heads also big

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    easy.

    just give more EC and keep it below a million.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    tough...high prices..complaint
    low prices also cannot
    then? gahmen heads also big
    govt can just say, these are artifically pushed up prices..so now we press down.

    otherwise, wadever profits cash+cpf gotta dump back in the next assest.

    no holding onto cash!

    aiya, dont worry those scholars will work out to kill the market.

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    Pls hurry up go for the kill!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Komo
    Pls hurry up go for the kill!!!!
    Hahaha... Hurry hurry!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    If they want more support and votes, they should not just make housing more affordable, their housing policies should also be seen as fair and equitable to all, not just to please select groups (e.g. developers? ), including:
    1) Reduce that SSD which is not owners' friendly, not upgraders' friendly, and not fair and equitable to all.
    2) New launch properties SSD should start from TOP date and not S&P date as not fair to resale property buyers (and also sellers vs Developers)!
    It will never be fair. Is it fair to have lower class, middle class and upper class? The income ceiling already segragates the rich from buying a HDB and EC. Its not fair to the rich? If start SSD from TOP date for new launch also not fair to the buyers who cannot stay and cannot invest. Then he go buy resale coz want to be fair, then again its not fair to developers with new launches? How ever to be fair to all?
    Best remove both SSD and BSD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    tough...high prices..complaint
    low prices also cannot
    then? gahmen heads also big
    I think the best they can do is to moderate price increment and increase housing supply while waiting for the market to auto correct itself.

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    Just wonder how difficult it is for someone who just started working to save S$700 a month aside from CPF contribution? If someone, assuming started working at the age of 24, can save S$700 a month, in 3 years he/she can save around 25K, or 50K for a couple who is getting married. Together with the government grant and CPF contribution, they shall be able to afford a HDB flat around 350K-400K, am I correct?

    My question is, is it really the problem of affordability or availability?
    Last edited by SpinCity; 21-05-11 at 10:42.

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    Very difficult

    HDB also cannot finish paying in this life time, how to be able to afford condo?

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    ramp up the supplies and slowly remove SSD. let the market currect itself. otherwise will leave alot of headache to the next ministers and future singaporeans...give grant to those who complaint most - i.e. the newly wed....

    I would like to buy a HDB for self stay. gov can you hear me?

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    They heard u lah, just get rid of ur privates.

    Whahahaha

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    Garment has a taste of his own medicine. They believe in meritocracy. What happen now is that the group of young working adults who are are armed with a good qualification cannot get what they aspire to have in a short period of time. Garment wants things fast and this is injected into them in the last 15 years of their education. All of them want to be instant noodle eater. People got frustrated when they cannot upgrade to a condo from HDB fast and cannot own a car fast.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Garment has a taste of his own medicine. They believe in meritocracy. What happen now is that the group of young working adults who are are armed with a good qualification cannot get what they aspire to have in a short period of time. Garment wants things fast and this is injected into them in the last 15 years of their education. All of them want to be instant noodle eater. People got frustrated when they cannot upgrade to a condo from HDB fast and cannot own a car fast.
    With a goal of buying a flat, people shall work hard to achieve it, and at the same time shall adjust their spending patterns.
    If you want to spend the money, which is supposed to be saved for the downpayment of your flat in 3-4 year down the road, on non-necessities such as branded goods and entertainment, who can help?

    Again, I believe it is less of a problem of affordability, but more of a poorly managed public housing policy and supply

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    It's the que 'kill' system.

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    with khaw boon wan by minister of MND, difficult to expect spikes in property price unless due to external forces. I think he is able to close the gap soon.

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    People may not want to work as hard as last time to make the money. They want easy and fast money. That is say but is happening.
    Quote Originally Posted by SpinCity
    With a goal of buying a flat, people shall work hard to achieve it, and at the same time shall adjust their spending patterns.
    If you want to spend the money, which is supposed to be saved for the downpayment of your flat in 3-4 year down the road, on non-necessities such as branded goods and entertainment, who can help?

    Again, I believe it is less of a problem of affordability, but more of a poorly managed public housing policy and supply

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    Quote Originally Posted by kingkong1984
    They heard u lah, just get rid of ur privates.

    Whahahaha
    cannot leh, I want to retire without asking the gov to fund my health care cost and to burden my children.

    so can gov hear me....

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    cannot leh, I want to retire without asking the gov to fund my health care cost and to burden my children.

    so can gov hear me....
    Gov gona make us repent for 5yrs....its too late

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    Best is to make developers complete their new projects before they can sell so that people can see how the units will ultimately be like and not cheated by modifications and show-room tactics? Furthermore new sale and resale all on same footings, SSD start on the day they take over the property, all have to pay 40% cash upfront (or 20% for first time buyers), all can start to live in or rent out at the point of take over. Otherwise, return LTV to 90% and remove SSD will be fairer.

    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    It will never be fair. Is it fair to have lower class, middle class and upper class? The income ceiling already segragates the rich from buying a HDB and EC. Its not fair to the rich? If start SSD from TOP date for new launch also not fair to the buyers who cannot stay and cannot invest. Then he go buy resale coz want to be fair, then again its not fair to developers with new launches? How ever to be fair to all?
    Best remove both SSD and BSD.

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    For HDB new flats, the real problem is actually availability (cannot even get balloted a new HDB flat, and then many of these available are in lousy locations far from MRT stations, and even when balloted still need to wait 3+ years!) and not so much of affordability (although everyone will hope to buy at $8 and sell at $1m)!

    Quote Originally Posted by SpinCity
    Just wonder how difficult it is for someone who just started working to save S$700 a month aside from CPF contribution? If someone, assuming started working at the age of 24, can save S$700 a month, in 3 years he/she can save around 25K, or 50K for a couple who is getting married. Together with the government grant and CPF contribution, they shall be able to afford a HDB flat around 350K-400K, am I correct?

    My question is, is it really the problem of affordability or availability?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Best is to make developers complete their new projects before they can sell so that people can see how the units will ultimately be like and not cheated by modifications and show-room tactics? Furthermore new sale and resale all on same footings, SSD start on the day they take over the property, all have to pay 40% cash upfront (or 20% for first time buyers), all can start to live in or rent out at the point of take over. Otherwise, return LTV to 90% and remove SSD will be fairer.
    When and how did developer started to sell floor plans?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    For HDB new flats, the real problem is actually availability (cannot even get balloted a new HDB flat, and then many of these available are in lousy locations far from MRT stations, and even when balloted still need to wait 3+ years!) and not so much of affordability (although everyone will hope to buy at $8 and sell at $1m)!
    Shd increase application fee to let say 1k...

    Availability is not the problem....

    Cheaper...further....fair

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Best is to make developers complete their new projects before they can sell so that people can see how the units will ultimately be like and not cheated by modifications and show-room tactics? Furthermore new sale and resale all on same footings, SSD start on the day they take over the property, all have to pay 40% cash upfront (or 20% for first time buyers), all can start to live in or rent out at the point of take over. Otherwise, return LTV to 90% and remove SSD will be fairer.
    All small developer without the cash-flow will surely go bell up. It would mean zero leverage fo them.

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    Have lah, even if we A&A landed we can also borrow from banks, what's more for developers?

    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    All small developer without the cash-flow will surely go bell up. It would mean zero leverage fo them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Have lah, even if we A&A landed we can also borrow from banks, what's more for developers?
    You can get A&A loan because you have steady sources of income. For them the need reconstruction loan and if they don't have steady income stream, who will lend them?

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    Individual A&A loan rate is better than commercial lending rate.
    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    You can get A&A loan because you have steady sources of income. For them the need reconstruction loan and if they don't have steady income stream, who will lend them?

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