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Thread: Market watchers warn of oversupply of private homes

  1. #1
    Junior

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    Default Market watchers warn of oversupply of private homes

    [URL="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1134633/1/.html"]Market watchers warn of oversupply of private homes[/URL]
    By Joanne Chan | Posted: 11 June 2011 2054 hrs

    SINGAPORE: Market watchers have said there may be an oversupply of private homes in two to three years' time, when most developments are completed.

    They cautioned that while a good economy may see these units gradually taken up, a downturn will send the property market into a depression.

    National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan issued a "health advisory" on his blog, urging investors and upgraders to think hard before buying a new home. He warned that "sharp property prices cannot go on forever".

    Those hoping to make a profit by re-selling or renting out apartments may find themselves competing in an increasingly crowded market.

    By some estimates, as many as 93,000 new homes could hit the market over the next five years.

    SLP International's Executive Director of Research and Consultancy, Nicholas Mak, said there are roughly 80,000 homes currently under development. He added that this does not include government land sales parcels sold and en-bloc sales in the last six months, which can yield another 13,000 new homes.

    Mr Mak said: "Those people who may have a bit of spare cash and are thinking of buying any property, perhaps as a hedge against inflation, I would sound a word of caution that they should look very carefully, look at their own finances, and also to see the property they are choosing, is it something that can be easily rented out when it's completed."

    Others are optimistic that the property market will be boosted by investors from neighbouring countries.

    David Poh, Senior Group District Director of PropNex, said: "Asian economies will continue to grow very strongly in the next few years, especially major foreign buyers market like China and India.

    "So with these strong economies over there, with [Singapore's] good infrastructure, good government, good environment, I'm quite sure they will continue to invest in properties in Singapore."

    -CNA/ac
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  2. #2
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    what is 93000 homes compared to the couple of million more foreigners waiting to migrate here? As the sing dollar continues to strengthen against euro currencies and USD, foreigners would want to park their money in singapore properties. no typhoon, earthquake, tsunami, nuclear leaks or any other natural disasters and a stable government and economy, factors for foreigners to consider when parking money here.

  3. #3
    Enbloc>GLS

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    To add on.

    9.2% of 5 million people are millionares = 500k multi millionares in Singapore. Opening the floodgates to attract more millionares to park their money here. What is 90000+ of private condos, and maybe 400k more. I subscribe to this decade of boom theory due to abnormal low interest rate for a long time. People have no problem holding on even when interest go up to 2%+.

    If you subscribe to 2014 theory, price soften and slightly higher interest rate coupled with falling demand and more supply. Quantum don't change.
    Developer can just give you smaller house after 2014 if u can't afford.

    Even my colleague who stay in resale hdb work for 20 years as a senior I.T staff can transit easily to a freehold condo with no sweat by just taking a normal progressive loan lo. Some even smarter wait for gov to uncap 10k income ceiling will just buy EC and pay 0 resale levy to enjoy the same facilities, don't even need to spend so much (no greed involved).

    Youngsters are also too capable nowadays. When immediately graduate a decent group already can command very near 5 digit combined income just by working for the correct jobs (not even entrepreneurs) and growing. HDB cannot even afford to let them buy.

    I think the key thing is still the quantum which is cheap and worse of all a very large and increasing group of young people just grad and buy private for stay and lifestyle. To them is cheap

    "If you say cheap, people will just kill you, so you must say it is reasonable."

  4. #4
    Enbloc>GLS

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    Before even looking at 2014 supply and falling demand flooding the market theory, I look at the savings rate of Singaporeans, lol so much.

  5. #5
    OCR properties going to crash!

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    These people always never get their fact right. I already show data that CCR completed units will be the lowest for the past 1+ decade in 2012 & remain very very low in 2013!
    On the hand, OCR completed units will balloon to highest ever from 2013-2016, highest ever in don't know how many past decades!


    Quote Originally Posted by sleek
    [URL="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1134633/1/.html"]Market watchers warn of oversupply of private homes[/URL]
    By Joanne Chan | Posted: 11 June 2011 2054 hrs

    SINGAPORE: Market watchers have said there may be an oversupply of private homes in two to three years' time, when most developments are completed.

    They cautioned that while a good economy may see these units gradually taken up, a downturn will send the property market into a depression.

    National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan issued a "health advisory" on his blog, urging investors and upgraders to think hard before buying a new home. He warned that "sharp property prices cannot go on forever".

    Those hoping to make a profit by re-selling or renting out apartments may find themselves competing in an increasingly crowded market.

    By some estimates, as many as 93,000 new homes could hit the market over the next five years.

    SLP International's Executive Director of Research and Consultancy, Nicholas Mak, said there are roughly 80,000 homes currently under development. He added that this does not include government land sales parcels sold and en-bloc sales in the last six months, which can yield another 13,000 new homes.

    Mr Mak said: "Those people who may have a bit of spare cash and are thinking of buying any property, perhaps as a hedge against inflation, I would sound a word of caution that they should look very carefully, look at their own finances, and also to see the property they are choosing, is it something that can be easily rented out when it's completed."

    Others are optimistic that the property market will be boosted by investors from neighbouring countries.

    David Poh, Senior Group District Director of PropNex, said: "Asian economies will continue to grow very strongly in the next few years, especially major foreign buyers market like China and India.

    "So with these strong economies over there, with [Singapore's] good infrastructure, good government, good environment, I'm quite sure they will continue to invest in properties in Singapore."

    -CNA/ac

  6. #6
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    No cause for worry yet lah... remember our lovely govt said the FT and FW tap will allow some 16 000 foreigners in annually. Couple with our locals and newly weds, the figure may well rise to some 25 000 to 30 000 a year. That works out to be about 130 000 demands in next 5 years, still greatly overtaking the 93 000 supply, not forgetting there are some 10 000 vacant units floating in the market currently which adds up to only about 103 000, still a miserable 20 000 + units short! ... So only solution is to build more lor! Think govt won't want to close or reduce that FT and FW tap lor.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    No cause for worry yet lah... remember our lovely govt said the FT and FW tap will allow some 16 000 foreigners in annually. Couple with our locals and newly weds, the figure may well rise to some 25 000 to 30 000 a year. That works out to be about 130 000 demands in next 5 years, still greatly overtaking the 93 000 supply, not forgetting there are some 10 000 vacant units floating in the market currently which adds up to only about 103 000, still a miserable 20 000 + units short! ... So only solution is to build more lor! Think govt won't want to close or reduce that FT and FW tap lor.
    eh.. some people do buy hdb leh.. cant be everyone buy condo..

  8. #8
    Exalted

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    Quote Originally Posted by linchong84
    eh.. some people do buy hdb leh.. cant be everyone buy condo..
    Most ft rent......

  9. #9
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    No cause for worry yet lah... remember our lovely govt said the FT and FW tap will allow some 16 000 foreigners in annually. Couple with our locals and newly weds, the figure may well rise to some 25 000 to 30 000 a year. That works out to be about 130 000 demands in next 5 years, still greatly overtaking the 93 000 supply, not forgetting there are some 10 000 vacant units floating in the market currently which adds up to only about 103 000, still a miserable 20 000 + units short! ... So only solution is to build more lor! Think govt won't want to close or reduce that FT and FW tap lor.
    Bro.... It's not one condo to one person... Average also 1:2.8

  10. #10
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    Hahaha!!! All correct!!! So what do you think our lovely govt will do when they cannot account for the huge oversupply? As I mentioned earlier (in another thread), all these numbers are actually part of govt's plan (more like MND and MOM) to secretly bring in more than 16 000 foreigners a year. They may easily project some 25 000 a year but cannot tell the angry Singaporeans yet so they just proceed with build first then tell later!!! Its pretty obvious lah! See how convenient it is for KBW. He not only can more than convince the skeptical Singaporeans of his immense efforts to meet the housing demands of locals, he can also secretly prepare the country of the huge foreigner influx which is still not announced but most certainly in the pipleline! Kill 2 birds with 1 stone! He nailed the jackpot big time! Just watch this space.

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