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Thread: 2013: Market crash or ghost towns?

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    Default 2013: Market crash or ghost towns?

    http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...r-ghost-towns?

    2013: Market crash or ghost towns?

    by Colin Tan

    04:47 AM Jun 10, 2011


    In the past few months, there have been more warnings of a glut in the private housing market and the calls have become more strident.

    More recently, this warning has been blared out as one of several events that could lead to the perfect storm that the market is headed for. This is the worst-case scenario which could unfold as early as 2013 if all the events - more supply, falling demand and higher interest rates - occur together to trigger a market crash.

    Why 2013? Well, this is because an unprecedented number of housing units are expected to enter the market then. Official figures show that 32,359 units will be completed over 2013 and 2014. This is 85 per cent more than the 17,501 units expected this year and next year.

    Meanwhile, demand from foreign buyers could fall as concerns about high housing prices and the influx of foreigners were magnified during the General Election and will be a catalyst for the review of immigration and housing policies.

    Foreign buyers have been a big boost to the local property market in recent years. More recently, by one industry estimate, they accounted for a high 16 per cent of new housing sales in the first quarter of this year.

    Interest rates in Singapore are presently at record lows because lending rates here track United States monetary policy. That has allowed buyers to pay less than 1 per cent interest on the first year of their mortgages. Most banking analysts, however, expect interest rates to begin rising later this year.

    Finally, while growth forecasts for Singapore over the next five years at 4 to 6 per cent annually will underpin support from local buyers, a major unforeseen external crisis could still lead to a market crash.

    How realistic is this scenario? For one, there are limits to how quickly the construction sector can expand its capacity to meet all of the new building demand. Remember, we are also ramping up our public housing stock and building ahead of demand. So, although the numbers will still be high compared to before, the supply will be more spaced out and not as announced.

    The private residential leasing market also appears to be healthier than expected. Already, the number of leasing contracts for the first four months of this year is about 8 per cent higher than the corresponding period last year.

    However, a word of caution here. Judging from the feedback I get from housing agents, I suspect more and more of the new tenants are locals and not expatriates. This shows that a growing number of locals are taking a position on the housing market cycle - they are renting for the time being, waiting to pick up units when prices correct.

    As for interest rates rising this year, when have we heard this line before? About a year ago, I suspect, or even earlier. In fact, rates have declined further since the first call.

    Yes, there is much stronger resistance from US law-makers to another round of quantitative easing but what happens if the US economy does not pick up in the second half of the year? Do we expect President Barack Obama who is seeking re-election in 2012 to sit back and do nothing? Personally, I would not bet a single dollar on it.

    More and more, the US Federal Reserve's experience is beginning to be like that of the Bank of Japan, which has engaged in roughly two decades of quantitative easing. It is beginning to look like US rates will stay unusually low for far longer than many investors expect.

    With the Fed, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank having rates at or near all-time lows, Asia, including Singapore, will be on the frontline of the struggle with cheap money and unprecedented liquidity.

    Even if a private housing glut were to occur in 2013 or earlier, there is little incentive for the majority of investors to sell off their properties so long as housing loan rates and holding costs remain low. And if there is little or minimal change to our private housing policies, I suspect we are more likely to see ghost towns in 2013 than experience a market crash.



    Colin Tan is head, research and consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.

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    HUH? A lot of ghosttowns in Singapore and have no impact on property prices? Ghost-towns with no tenants and no returns and investors continue to hold on to a non-yielding asset? He must be dreaming. If Singapore becomes a ghost-town, u can be sure property values will be impacted in some form or manner.

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    Depends on how long the properties remain vacant. There is a lag time for prices to follow rentals. If it's less than 1 year, I doubt prices will decline in any significance



    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    HUH? A lot of ghosttowns in Singapore and have no impact on property prices? Ghost-towns with no tenants and no returns and investors continue to hold on to a non-yielding asset? He must be dreaming. If Singapore becomes a ghost-town, u can be sure property values will be impacted in some form or manner.

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    i think he meant those who bought have the mean to hold. so even with oversupply scenario and price do dip, these owners will not panic sell, so market impact is not as great as expected

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    Quote Originally Posted by ay123
    i think he meant those who bought have the mean to hold. so even with oversupply scenario and price do dip, these owners will not panic sell, so market impact is not as great as expected
    i remember in 2006 i went to view a unit in Valley park ... about 1700-ish sqft

    at that time , it was at least 5 yr old ...

    but i was shock to see that it was ORIGINAL condition ..
    as in the wires still dangling from the ceiling ...

    agent told me ...unit belonged to some indonesian ... in fact he had a few units
    all bought during launch ..but never rented/sold ..
    so its considered BRAND NEW ...

    i believe there are still such units available ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i remember in 2006 i went to view a unit in Valley park ... about 1700-ish sqft

    at that time , it was at least 5 yr old ...

    but i was shock to see that it was ORIGINAL condition ..
    as in the wires still dangling from the ceiling ...

    agent told me ...unit belonged to some indonesian ... in fact he had a few units
    all bought during launch ..but never rented/sold ..
    so its considered BRAND NEW ...

    i believe there are still such units available ...
    If you notice any TOP units without curtain, most likely they are left in original condition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    HUH? A lot of ghosttowns in Singapore and have no impact on property prices? Ghost-towns with no tenants and no returns and investors continue to hold on to a non-yielding asset? He must be dreaming. If Singapore becomes a ghost-town, u can be sure property values will be impacted in some form or manner.
    How about those people who hold GOLD?

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    I know of someone who wanted to sold his balestier condo at the peak of 2007 but the crisis happened and buyers languished.....he found a willing buyer and sold to him.... rented a place and wanted to buy even cheaper.... but the market rebounded so fast so high that he is still renting now.....and can't find a place to stay.....

    Seriously, those people who are taking a position by renting is going to face issues as prices are just inflated to a level that it supports by itself and even if prices do correct, they won't go down by much.... because costs of everything thing including land, building materials have gone up so much.

    What makes us think our S$2 noodle per bowl or S$2 chicken rice is going to come back again?

    Singapore has two 2 x IRs, Formula and even Australia V-8 racing is using Singapore as HQ to ramp up it's daytona racing marketing.... The attraction to work, live in Singapore in the eyes of the foreigners now is very different from the past.

    As much as Singaporeans are upset and the young are upset about not having their cake and eat it.... we still have to live with it.

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    Bottomline is Singapore is enjoying so much international attention and economic security and stability that having anything like a major dip in housing market prices is simply too uninviting and dangerous that our lovely govt will do anything to prevent it from happening! Oversupply is indeed a cause for concern but certainly the govt is more concerned than us for they stand to lose much more than us should such a scenario materializes!

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    Quote Originally Posted by solsys
    I know of someone who wanted to sold his balestier condo at the peak of 2007 but the crisis happened and buyers languished.....he found a willing buyer and sold to him.... rented a place and wanted to buy even cheaper.... but the market rebounded so fast so high that he is still renting now.....and can't find a place to stay.....

    Seriously, those people who are taking a position by renting is going to face issues as prices are just inflated to a level that it supports by itself and even if prices do correct, they won't go down by much.... because costs of everything thing including land, building materials have gone up so much.

    What makes us think our S$2 noodle per bowl or S$2 chicken rice is going to come back again?

    Singapore has two 2 x IRs, Formula and even Australia V-8 racing is using
    Singapore as HQ to ramp up it's daytona racing marketing.... The attraction to work, live in Singapore in the eyes of the foreigners now is very different from the past.

    As much as Singaporeans are upset and the young are upset about not having their cake and eat it.... we still have to live with it.
    Don't playnwith the house you are staying... Very dangerous to rent.... Ifnmarket don't go down in 2-3 years after you sold, all the gains you make will be gone Liao...

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