Release of Q2 Statistics

[bargain hunter]

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2011/pr11-95.html

22 July 2011
Release of 2nd quarter 2011 real estate statistics
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the real estate statistics for 2nd Quarter 2011.
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES
Prices and Rentals
The rate of price increases continues to moderate. Prices of private residential properties increased by 2.0% in 2nd Quarter 2011, lower than the 2.2% increase in the previous quarter. This was the 7th consecutive quarter in which the rate of increase in private housing prices had moderated.
Prices of non-landed properties in Rest of Central Region1 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) increased at a more moderated pace. Prices of non-landed properties in RCR and OCR increased by 1.1% and 1.7%, lower than the increase of 2.0% and 3.1% in the previous quarter. Prices in the Core Central Region2 (CCR) increased by 1.6% in 2nd Quarter 2011, faster than the 1.1% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-1, A-2, A-6 & A-73).
Rentals of private residential properties4 increased by 1.3% in 2nd Quarter 2011, compared with the 1.2% increase in the previous quarter (see Annexes A-3 & A-45).
Supply in the Pipeline
The supply of residential units in the pipeline continues to build up. As at the end of 2nd Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 71,111 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline6, higher than the 68,887 units in 1st Quarter 20117 (see Annexes E-1 & E-28).
Of the supply in the pipeline, 33,899 units remained unsold as at 2Q2011. The unsold units comprised 10,309 units in CCR, 7,610 units in RCR and 15,980 units in OCR (see Annexes B-1 & B-2).
Launches and Take-up
A total of 4,802 uncompleted private residential units were launched for sale by developers in 2nd Quarter 2011, compared with 4,130 units in 1st Quarter 2011 (see Annex C-1). At the same time, 4,325 uncompleted private residential units were sold by developers, compared with 3,430 units in 1st Quarter 2011. Developers also sold 119 completed private residential units in 2nd Quarter 2011 (see Annex C-2).
Sub-sales
Sub-sales accounted for 7.4% of all sale transactions in 2nd Quarter 2011, lower than the 8.3% recorded in 1st Quarter 2011 (see Annex D).
Stock and Vacancy
The stock of private residential units increased by 2,054 units in 2nd Quarter 2011. At the same time, the vacancy rate of completed private residential units increased from 4.9% as at the end of 1st Quarter 2011 to 5.1% as at the end of 2nd Quarter 2011 (see Annex E-1).
Executive Condominiums
The total stock of completed Executive Condominium (EC) units remained at 10,430 units as at the end of 2nd Quarter 2011. In addition, there were 4,194 EC units in the pipeline (see Annex E-1).

[stalingrad]

so, OCR beats CCR again? wow, even I am surprised by the momentum.

[greenhorn]

Landed properties are the big winners, powering way ahead of non-landed properties. Owners of Terraces and Semi-Ds are asking high high prices propelled by the landed scarcity factor. Looks like we are moving to a situation where the landed segment will be an exclusive playground for the rich and affluent!

[Jadey]

Taken from BT


Of the latest supply in the pipeline, 33,899 units remained unsold as at Q2 2011.
Breakdown

CCR - 10,309 units
RCR - 7,610 units
OCR - 15,980 units


Considering the typically lower transaction volume of CCR compared to OCR properties, would it be correct to say that there is already an over supply problem in CCR?

[hyenergix]

Taken from BT


Of the latest supply in the pipeline, 33,899 units remained unsold as at Q2 2011.
Breakdown

CCR - 10,309 units
RCR - 7,610 units
OCR - 15,980 units


Considering the typically lower transaction volume of CCR compared to OCR properties, would it be correct to say that there is already an over supply problem in CCR?

I think it is oversupply at their current prices.

[HP65]

Cool, q-o-q, CCR is increasing and RCR and OCR are decreasing!! Looks like the tide is turning! Congrats to CCR supporter

Guess those commie who pretended to blast CCR, hoping that the price gap will narrow enuf for them to switch can only dream on

I just rejected a $1550 psf offer for my 33 year old sommerville park unit

[bargain hunter]

1550psf is only market price for sommerville, not much premium. why would u accept?

Cool, q-o-q, CCR is increasing and RCR and OCR are decreasing!! Looks like the tide is turning! Congrats to CCR supporter

Guess those commie who pretended to blast CCR, hoping that the price gap will narrow enuf for them to switch can only dream on

I just rejected a $1550 psf offer for my 33 year old sommerville park unit

[stalingrad]

Cool, q-o-q, CCR is increasing and RCR and OCR are decreasing!! Looks like the tide is turning! Congrats to CCR supporter

Guess those commie who pretended to blast CCR, hoping that the price gap will narrow enuf for them to switch can only dream on

I just rejected a $1550 psf offer for my 33 year old sommerville park unit

huh? what are you smoking in your pipe, man? read the article again. Man, he can't even read a simple article.

if you can't read, I will help you. OCR prices have risen more quickly than CCR prices for 10 quarters in a row. get it?

[stalingrad]

1550psf is only market price for sommerville, not much premium. why would u accept?

I bet 1,550psf is the same price the property could command in 2007. Of course, he would not accept.

This is the guy that kept saying that d'leedon is very good. yes, it is so good no one is buying it.

[Wild Falcon]

?? Still converging leh.

OCR +1.7%
CCR +1.6%

In any case, its becoming irrelevant as prices clearly move together. CCR which has been underperforming in the past quarters are still not catching up. Catching up means it has to EXCEED the growth in OCR from now on to be on par with OCR price performance.

Cool, q-o-q, CCR is increasing and RCR and OCR are decreasing!! Looks like the tide is turning! Congrats to CCR supporter

Guess those commie who pretended to blast CCR, hoping that the price gap will narrow enuf for them to switch can only dream on

I just rejected a $1550 psf offer for my 33 year old sommerville park unit

[stalingrad]

this is an ad for summerville park in 2007:

Condo For Sale: Sommerville Park at Farrer Rd (D10)

Sell below bank valuation, Expat’s Choice! Farrer MRT + Freehold

OPEN HOUSE

• Blk 103, Upper Maisonette, 1884 sqft
• 3 Bedroom + 1, Big balcony, renovated
• Spacious Living & Dining room
• Quiet, Greenery, Vacant possession

• Amenities, Market, Food Court, Farrer Court MRT
• Near NYPS, many good schools
• Mins to Botanic Gardens, Orchard Rd, Holland Village

• Situated on large Prime Land with Enbloc Potential
• Good Investment!
• 2.98M


the price works out to be 1,582psf, higher than $1,550. of course, he would be pissed and reject. basically, his capital gain in four years is a big zero, if not negative.

Frankly, I know that D10 has stagnated, but I never realized it is so down on its luck. the rest of the country has almost doubled. but these D10 is still under water. even I find it amazing.

[DaytonaSS]

so, OCR beats CCR again? wow, even I am surprised by the momentum.

did u say CCR not moving?

[HP65]

1550psf is only market price for sommerville, not much premium. why would u accept?

BH, exactly. This unit of mine is a ground floor townhse. Considering the size, $1550 is pretty decent and i consider this as somewhat a base price. And again, considering the age, its darn decent imo. For the smaller 2/3 bedders, my neighbours have been rejecting offers of 1800/ 1900 psf coz we know the value and untapped potential of older developments. To many of us, nothing less than 2000 psf is acceptable to us, especially when you consider new developments has lots of wasted space.

To me, smart money are turning to CCR (or even fake CCR for that matter) now.

[Jadey]

Here is a compilation of all D9,10,11 transaction between Q42010 to Q2 2011.

Notice that in between Q1 and Q2, prices of D9.10.11 has gone up by 2%, while the ave size of property has gone down by 5.4%.

Period / No units / ave size / ave psf
Q2 2011 / 1113 / 1420sf / $ 1,831psf
Q1 2011 / 968 / 1501sf / $ 1,794psf
Q4 2010 / 1390 / 1491sf / $ 1,780psf

[HP65]

?? Still converging leh.

OCR +1.7%
CCR +1.6%

In any case, its becoming irrelevant as prices clearly move together. CCR which has been underperforming in the past quarters are still not catching up. Catching up means it has to EXCEED the growth in OCR from now on to be on par with OCR price performance.

Even though I'm an accountant, i dislike historical data as it serve no purpose. RCR/OCR rate of growth is -ve while CCR is +ve. I'm quietly confident we r at the turning point. I'm beginning to receive more enquiries and some are locals to view my townhse.

[DaytonaSS]

this is an ad for summerville park in 2007:

Condo For Sale: Sommerville Park at Farrer Rd (D10)

Sell below bank valuation, Expat’s Choice! Farrer MRT + Freehold

OPEN HOUSE

• Blk 103, Upper Maisonette, 1884 sqft
• 3 Bedroom + 1, Big balcony, renovated
• Spacious Living & Dining room
• Quiet, Greenery, Vacant possession

• Amenities, Market, Food Court, Farrer Court MRT
• Near NYPS, many good schools
• Mins to Botanic Gardens, Orchard Rd, Holland Village

• Situated on large Prime Land with Enbloc Potential
• Good Investment!
• 2.98M


the price works out to be 1,582psf, higher than $1,550. of course, he would be pissed and reject. basically, his capital gain in four years is a big zero, if not negative.

Frankly, I know that D10 has stagnated, but I never realized it is so down on its luck. the rest of the country has almost doubled. but these D10 is still under water. even I find it amazing.

Do u call it undervalued then? since the whole country chong x2 liao then this place havnt move ? woodlands also moved? if not , i will conclude even when one holds FH, when its 30+++ years, good luck to u?

[stalingrad]

Do u call it undervalued then? since the whole country chong x2 liao then this place havnt move ? woodlands also moved? if not , i will conclude even when one holds FH, when its 30+++ years, good luck to u?

No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.

[HP65]

[quote=stalingrad]No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.[/quote]

hahahahahaha......even if you want, I doubt you can afford it. Not that i'm looking down on you, but you are just not at that level to appreciate the finer things in life.

[stalingrad]

[quote=HP65]

No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.[/quote]

hahahahahaha......even if you want, I doubt you can afford it. Not that i'm looking down on you, but you are just not at that level to appreciate the finer things in life.

what finer things? everyone knows that sommerville park is a dump. it just cannot find a buyer, just like tulip garden.

[Jadey]

I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.

Did a compilation for D5 property.

Prices of D5 properties has gone up by 5.5% between Q1 and Q2, while there is negligible difference in the ave unit size.

Period / No units / ave size / ave psf
Q2 2011 / 234 / 1248sf / $ 1,060psf
Q1 2011 / 183 / 1253sf / $ 1,005psf
Q4 2010 / 238 / 1216sf / $ 991psf

[bargain hunter]

u mean one of those 4000 sq ft townhouses? very few transactions in past 2 years and the last one in mar was 1548psf so yeah still not much of a premium. but i agree that a buyer for this sort of quantum is still hard to come by, so it was indeed a decent offer.

but becoz of that, i feel that while smart money is buying in CCR, they are still mindful of the quantum (as opposed to 2007, when psf mattered more than quantum).

i also still feel that the newly completed big sized (2000 sq ft and above) units in CCR are still tough to sell/rent out at decent yields.

BH, exactly. This unit of mine is a ground floor townhse. Considering the size, $1550 is pretty decent and i consider this as somewhat a base price. And again, considering the age, its darn decent imo. For the smaller 2/3 bedders, my neighbours have been rejecting offers of 1800/ 1900 psf coz we know the value and untapped potential of older developments. To many of us, nothing less than 2000 psf is acceptable to us, especially when you consider new developments has lots of wasted space.

To me, smart money are turning to CCR (or even fake CCR for that matter) now.

[windcar]

u mean one of those 4000 sq ft townhouses? very few transactions in past 2 years and the last one in mar was 1548psf so yeah still not much of a premium. but i agree that a buyer for this sort of quantum is still hard to come by, so it was indeed a decent offer.

but becoz of that, i feel that while smart money is buying in CCR, they are still mindful of the quantum (as opposed to 2007, when psf mattered more than quantum).

i also still feel that the newly completed big sized (2000 sq ft and above) units in CCR are still tough to sell/rent out at decent yields.

I agree with BH. Not many people can afford to pay 15xxpsf for a 4000 sq feet town house. That price is pretty attractive as of now.


[QUOTE=stalingrad]

what finer things? everyone knows that sommerville park is a dump. it just cannot find a buyer, just like tulip garden.

I wonder what condo are you living in to condemn sommerville and tulip garden as dump. Right now their price is a little on the high side because one can get a much newer unit at around the same price at around the same location. The reason for their high price is only due to the en bloc potential and as long as there is this potential, there will be willing buyers.

[stalingrad]

[quote=windcar]I agree with BH. Not many people can afford to pay 15xxpsf for a 4000 sq feet town house. That price is pretty attractive as of now.

I wonder what condo are you living in to condemn sommerville and tulip garden as dump. Right now their price is a little on the high side because one can get a much newer unit at around the same price at around the same location. The reason for their high price is only due to the en bloc potential and as long as there is this potential, there will be willing buyers.

I heard so many stories about management committee at SP not doing its job in upkeeping because they just want to sell the place. as a result, some parts of the project look very "3rd world", quoting some people.

[DaytonaSS]

No, I wouldn't call it undervalued. just because D10 properties have stagnated doesn't mean it will come back to catch up with the rest. Temporary irrationality can cause a class of assets to be temporarily undervalued. but D10 properties' stagnation is not due to irrationality. D10 properties have lost their edge over properties in the suburb. People have no reason to live in D10, as they did before.

I frankly won't live in D10 even if I could pay lower prices for properties there than I would D5 prices.

so what D5 have D10 dont have and is inferior that cause it to have no reason to live there? or any other district in that matter? IF we assume anyone can afford a 3m house.

[Jadey]

Average rental for Sommerville is $3.50 psf, so based on 4200sqft, your townhouse could potential get a rental income will be $14,700 per month, or $176,400 per year (excluding expenses and taxes)

So based on current value of $1500psf, your property rental yield will be 2.8%, excluding interest, maintenance, tax and depreciation.

[bargain hunter]

normally for extra large unit sizes, the rental psf is nearer to the lower quartile than the average (if the project has smaller sizes, in this case, 1948sq ft, 1302 sq ft etc).

Average rental for Sommerville is $3.50 psf, so based on 4200sqft, your townhouse could potential get a rental income will be $14,700 per month, or $176,400 per year (excluding expenses and taxes)

So based on current value of $1500psf, your property rental yield will be 2.8%, excluding interest, maintenance, tax and depreciation.

[stalingrad]

normally for extra large unit sizes, the rental psf is nearer to the lower quartile than the average (if the project has smaller sizes, in this case, 1948sq ft, 1302 sq ft etc).

exactly. the market rate of this townhouse is probably $3psf, $36psf per year. He rejected an offer of $1550 psf. that means the buyer would have had a rental yield of just 2.3%, if he intended to rent it out. with all the incidental costs, the true yield is just about 2%, not much higher than fixed deposit rates.

I believe it was a mistake for him to reject the offer. I am actually surprised to hear from him that someone made that offer. Heard some really grim stories about this place.

[bargain hunter]

these 2 ads have been up for months, no takers:

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...-rent-king-s-8

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ill-residences

i'd rent leonie hill residences penthouse anytime for 12k.

14.7k for SP townhouse is simply not realistic unless its fully renovated.

Average rental for Sommerville is $3.50 psf, so based on 4200sqft, your townhouse could potential get a rental income will be $14,700 per month, or $176,400 per year (excluding expenses and taxes)

So based on current value of $1500psf, your property rental yield will be 2.8%, excluding interest, maintenance, tax and depreciation.

[Jadey]

normally for extra large unit sizes, the rental psf is nearer to the lower quartile than the average (if the project has smaller sizes, in this case, 1948sq ft, 1302 sq ft etc).

Thats true, so it should be around $3.16 psf x 4200 x 12 = $159,264 per year.

How much you reckon will be the maintenance cost for town houses?

[Jadey]

exactly. the market rate of this townhouse is probably $3psf, $36psf per year. He rejected an offer of $1550 psf. that means the buyer would have had a rental yield of just 2.3%, if he intended to rent it out. with all the incidental costs, the true yield is just about 2%, not much higher than fixed deposit rates.

I believe it was a mistake for him to reject the offer. I am actually surprised to hear from him that someone made that offer. Heard some really grim stories about this place.

the yield will be below 2% if you take into consider the financing cost of 1-1.5%