2011 National Day Rally Speech

[mygeemeel]

I will still try my best to find a mass mkt condo to buy. Mainly bcos EC generally don't have good location.

I would do more homework and squeeze the mass mkt owners to part their unit at a lower price. Use whatever means you can think of (except spray painting or throw eggs). Some owners just want to take some decent profit and exit, especially if mkt now is unpredictable.

Before i sold my mass mkt condo, i used neighbouring development and EC prices to benchmark. I got decent profit and then exited.

[Geylang OKT]

The way folks use mass market terminology make it seem like they are all 99LH.... but some are FH too

[iwantgizmos]

also EC don't have SOHO.

[Montaigne]

So if that is the case, income earner between 10k to 12k should either buy FH PC, or EC. Then maybe LH99 mass mkt will be hit more than FH mass mkt??? FH should be safe? So is it wiser to go for EC or FH mass mkt if that might be the ONLY property we can afford in this life? (ok.. I sound pathetic )

[linchong84]

There are 2 types of OCR.. One in fringe, the other is non-fringe.. Very obviously EC lies in the fringe and fringe OCR properties (PC and EC) are bought mostly by upgraders.. This is where EC will cannibalise demand from the fringe OCR pte condos (esp if they are located next to each other)..

So, what will happen if EC prices maintain? Fringe OCR prices will have to fall too.. And the domino will hurt the rest (OCR non fringe, RCR) because OCR fringe act as the support..

Govt now 'lowering' prices of BTOs, launching heavy supply, increase building speed and increase ceiling, so it is common sense the logical effect of these will be resale HDB MOP dropping.. That will start another domino too..

Of course some people can say EC developers might just decide to launch very high price.. Maybe yes maybe no.. They launch too high, nobody will bite.. it is EC afterall.. The most recent EC bid is one in punggol walkable to MRT at 270psf.. Such a low psf, how high a price will the developer launch at?

[kingkong1984]

There are 2 types of OCR.. One in fringe, the other is non-fringe.. Very obviously EC lies in the fringe and fringe OCR properties (PC and EC) are bought mostly by upgraders.. This is where EC will cannibalise demand from the fringe OCR pte condos (esp if they are located next to each other)..

So, what will happen if EC prices maintain? Fringe OCR prices will have to fall too.. And the domino will hurt the rest (OCR non fringe, RCR) because OCR fringe act as the support..

Govt now 'lowering' prices of BTOs, launching heavy supply, increase building speed and increase ceiling, so it is common sense the logical effect of these will be resale HDB MOP dropping.. That will start another domino too..

Of course some people can say EC developers might just decide to launch very high price.. Maybe yes maybe no.. They launch too high, nobody will bite.. it is EC afterall.. The most recent EC bid is one in punggol walkable to MRT at 270psf.. Such a low psf, how high a price will the developer launch at?

Monitor D23 Mi Casa and the EC Side by Side to draw conclusions.

[devilplate]

Wah very hot topic!

More demand diverted from hdb resale to bto and hence i wud expect cov to drop and stabilise at 20k

I predict ec prices will b raised....remember developer r not govt! They will price their prices according to income ceiling! Den u will noe wat happen to ocr, rcr

Lets monitor the nxt few ec bidding

[Geylang OKT]

Wah very hot topic!

More demand diverted from hdb resale to bto and hence i wud expect cov to drop and stabilise at 20k

I predict ec prices will b raised....remember developer r not govt! They will price their prices according to income ceiling! Den u will noe wat happen to ocr, rcr

Lets monitor the nxt few ec bidding

May even be ZERO COV or negative COV like it was then some years ago

[devilplate]

May even be ZERO COV or negative COV like it was then some years ago

Possible but i am solely toking abt the impact of the revision of income ceiling only la. If govt extend the housing grant for resale flats as well, den i wud expect resale px to raise instead.....lets see whether will it be implemented in future

[devilplate]

Possible but i am solely toking abt the impact of the revision of income ceiling only la. If govt extend the housing grant for resale flats as well, den i wud expect resale px to raise instead.....lets see whether will it be implemented in future

Housing grant for resale up to 10k now....previously was 8k?
If so, expect cov to stay at current level......

[taggy]

Housing grant for resale up to 10k now....previously was 8k?
If so, expect cov to stay at current level......

First timers - family grant
11-12k group suddenly get 10k grant to buy ec
10-11k group suddenly get 20k grant to buy ec
8-10k group suddenly get 30k grant to buy resale hdb

Single Singapore Citizen
previously, up to 3k single, get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 5k single, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

Joint Singles Scheme
previously, up to 8k group, to get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 10k group, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

http://app.mnd.gov.sg/Newsroom/NewsP...RA1=&RA2=&RA3=
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p....y?OpenDocument

yes, although the general consensus seems that resale hdb price to be affected, but, what i see from the changes, is increase in grants for many to buy resale hdb leh

[ysyap]

While OCR mass market might be slightly affected negatively with the new income ceiling, resale HDB should benefit the most. Now there is a larger pool of richer HDB buyers with grants and pockets after the ceiling increment! Hmmm... so COV will go up lor!

[hyenergix]

First timers - family grant
11-12k group suddenly get 10k grant to buy ec
10-11k group suddenly get 20k grant to buy ec
8-10k group suddenly get 30k grant to buy resale hdb

Single Singapore Citizen
previously, up to 3k single, get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 5k single, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

Joint Singles Scheme
previously, up to 8k group, to get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 10k group, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

http://app.mnd.gov.sg/Newsroom/NewsP...RA1=&RA2=&RA3=
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p....y?OpenDocument

yes, although the general consensus seems that resale hdb price to be affected, but, what i see from the changes, is increase in grants for many to buy resale hdb leh

This is akin to printing $ for the HDB buyers and inflating COV. The $8k-10k group will up the HDB COV by max of $30k. This is indeed good news for mass market condos targetting HDB upgraders.

[DC33_2008]

Goodies are also given out at National Day rally these days. Bottomline is Garment have heard the people and now have done something for this group of people. "Don't come back and complain". Good for the property market as things will continue to change hand and move. !

First timers - family grant
11-12k group suddenly get 10k grant to buy ec
10-11k group suddenly get 20k grant to buy ec
8-10k group suddenly get 30k grant to buy resale hdb

Single Singapore Citizen
previously, up to 3k single, get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 5k single, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

Joint Singles Scheme
previously, up to 8k group, to get 11k grant to buy resale hdb
now, up to 10k group, get 15k grant to buy resale hdb

http://app.mnd.gov.sg/Newsroom/NewsP...RA1=&RA2=&RA3=
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p....y?OpenDocument

yes, although the general consensus seems that resale hdb price to be affected, but, what i see from the changes, is increase in grants for many to buy resale hdb leh

[kingkong1984]

This is akin to printing $ for the HDB buyers and inflating COV. The $8k-10k group will up the HDB COV by max of $30k. This is indeed good news for mass market condos targetting HDB upgraders.

Overall should stablise. Everything holds and with little upside.

What the subsidy does is actually increasing the purchasing power. Offsetting the downpayment part. Other than that, it is price as usual.

You must grasp the concept of

1) Substitution
2) Consumption
3) Restitution
4) Contribution
5) Retribution
6) Frustration
7) Resignation

1. EC and Mass Market Condo are subsitutes.

2) Consumption is buy for self stay irregardless of pricing.

3) Restitution to the former or original state or position (Purchasing power).

4) Contribution to the inflated or deflated state (coffers).

5) Retribution for the wrong deeds or greed.

6) Frustration for unable to find buyers to buy at your asking price.

7) Resignation and accept the highest among the lowest.

It's a beautiful NATION.

[avo7007]

While OCR mass market might be slightly affected negatively with the new income ceiling, resale HDB should benefit the most. Now there is a larger pool of richer HDB buyers with grants and pockets after the ceiling increment! Hmmm... so COV will go up lor!

One step forward, two steps back.

[hopeful]

Nobody talked about raiding the reserves ?
Will the Singapore President approved of raiding the reserves?
or this year have budget surplus, so no need President's approval ?

Opposition didnt make any noise about raiding the reserves?

[taggy]

While OCR mass market might be slightly affected negatively with the new income ceiling, resale HDB should benefit the most. Now there is a larger pool of richer HDB buyers with grants and pockets after the ceiling increment! Hmmm... so COV will go up lor!

dun noe COV will really go up or not, because grants is in terms of CPF, buyers still need to come out with cold hard cash for COV+5% of valuation price.

[linchong84]

the grants are for first timer only... and most first timer buy BTOs... So i dunno why u all so excited with how the grant will affect MOP.. ha..

[ysyap]

the grants are for first timer only... and most first timer buy BTOs... So i dunno why u all so excited with how the grant will affect MOP.. ha..

So who's excited with how the grant will affect MOP?

[CCR]

Nobody talked about raiding the reserves ?
Will the Singapore President approved of raiding the reserves?
or this year have budget surplus, so no need President's approval ?

Opposition didnt make any noise about raiding the reserves?

Gahmen is using current budget surplus for all these grants.... That's why don't need president approval.... If you understand our budgetary process you will know how rich Singapore is....

Proceed from any land sales goes straight to reserves... Any budget surplus goes straight to reserves.... All income earn from investment, half of it goes straight to reserves.... But when we build roads, MRT, any form of infrastructure, even very long term infrastruture like gardens by the bay, barrage etc, are classified as current account budget.... Hence when gahmen say there is a budget deficit it's actually not true....

I mean on a personal level, when we buy a car or buy a house we use our current year salary to fund it right? We dip into our savings to pay the downpayment etc.... So Singapore budget is really very conservative... That is Singapore is so rich....

Actually nobody knows exactly how rich we are..... I think easily our reserves from gic and temasek, MAS, MOF, will add up tomat least 600 to 700 billion man..... I think it might be so high that we might be shy to announce openly...

Singapore is hence really secure...

[linchong84]

So who's excited with how the grant will affect MOP?

read upwards.. there are some discussion linking grants to MOP value.. I thought it is a very weak link.. the affected potential buyers are too small a grp to make any significant impact.. 1st timers who received grants are mostly young couples getting married.. they buy btos one..

[linchong84]

Gahmen is using current budget surplus for all these grants.... That's why don't need president approval.... If you understand our budgetary process you will know how rich Singapore is....

Proceed from any land sales goes straight to reserves... Any budget surplus goes straight to reserves.... All income earn from investment, half of it goes straight to reserves.... But when we build roads, MRT, any form of infrastructure, even very long term infrastruture like gardens by the bay, barrage etc, are classified as current account budget.... Hence when gahmen say there is a budget deficit it's actually not true....

I mean on a personal level, when we buy a car or buy a house we use our current year salary to fund it right? We dip into our savings to pay the downpayment etc.... So Singapore budget is really very conservative... That is Singapore is so rich....

Actually nobody knows exactly how rich we are..... I think easily our reserves from gic and temasek, MAS, MOF, will add up tomat least 600 to 700 billion man..... I think it might be so high that we might be shy to announce openly...

Singapore is hence really secure...

depends on what currency they are holding it in.. and wat stocks they are buying.. although it's a lot of $$$, but a lot might also be lost in fx and investment losses..

[amk]

Allow more ppl eligible for BTO and EC.. So those complain cannot buy HDB happy
Give more grants at the same time, so resale px won't crash... So upgraders also happy...
Does it look like a win win ?

[kingkong1984]

Hey... Imagine your 4 room flat is at 400k

5 room flat at 500k....

Pc at 1 million

3 years later, 4 room flat at 440k, 5 room at 550k.... But pc is at 1.5 million.... U think win win? Good outcome?

[linchong84]

Hey... Imagine your 4 room flat is at 400k

5 room flat at 500k....

Pc at 1 million

3 years later, 4 room flat at 440k, 5 room at 550k.... But pc is at 1.5 million.... U think win win? Good outcome?

why will PC's value increase by 50% while HDB only 10%. Won't happen assuming similar market conditions and location..

[kingkong1984]

why will PC's value increase by 50% while HDB only 10%. Won't happen assuming similar market conditions and location..

U come back after 3 yrs and see....

Tag this as 3year

[linchong84]

U come back after 3 yrs and see....

Tag this as 3year

although i feel the recent measures that MND introduced will curb resale MOP prices, but it might come a little too late..

The DBSS will create new benchmarks.. To make a decent profit, the pricest unit in the upcoming pasir ris dbss has to sell at around 900k.. The HDBs in pasir ris will be pulled up.. and domino domino, the rest of the towns in singapore will adjust upwards as pasir ris is such a fringe town..

A few years later when the earlier DBSS finish the MOP, buyers won't sell at a loss and there will definitely be resale buyers who will bite at exp price tags, creating new benchmarks..

KBW might have been screwed by MBT's DBSS legacy..

So KBW might eventually have to privatise the DBSS to prevent it from ballooning HDB's prices..

[evergreen]

Nobody talked about raiding the reserves ?
Will the Singapore President approved of raiding the reserves?
or this year have budget surplus, so no need President's approval ?

Opposition didnt make any noise about raiding the reserves?

Tan Jee Say questioned the rationale behind taxing people and chalking up reserves - are people being taxed too much?

[kingkong1984]

I have learnt that price up is ok. Everyone is happy except for those buying for the first time. Grants will breach the gap.

The the most important thing is relativity.

Imagine 30 yrs ago, landed for 30k and hdb at 3k, monthly income 30 on avg.

Then 30 yr later, landed gained 50 times to 1.5 million but hdb gained 10 times to 150k... Like that? Considered hdb rich or private richer?