Some interesting articles (real estates)...

[ikan bilis]

I’m doing some cut&paste of interesting real estates articles in this thread….



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股市大跌 樓市跟隨？




近幾星期，接二連三的不利消息，令股市持續受壓。不少經歷過97年樓市泡沬及98年亞洲金融風暴的準買家都擔心，樓市會否像當年一樣跟隨股市大跌。就讓筆者來分析一下。


風暴源頭不同

十幾年前，樓市轉跌，主要原因是樓市熾熱，不論供款比率、利率與通脹差幅均呈現不健康狀況，加上炒風及摩貨成交極多，不少投資者根本無力上會，以致任何不利因素皆令買家難以承受，寧可撻訂斷供，止蝕離場。當時亞洲貨幣 (包括港元)被大鱷狙擊，令整個亞洲金融陷入一片亂局，亦直接令樓市雪崩式下滑。

今時今日，股市由金融海嘯後升浪頂回調兩成許，主因是歐債危機及美國主權評級下調，引發市場對環球經濟前景憂慮，以及擔心滯脹發生。言則，風暴的核心不是亞洲區，而是歐美市場這兩個昔日的經濟火車頭，本地住宅市場亦沒有炒家可言，不可能出現人踩人式恐慌性下跌，可見兩次金融危機的風暴中心並不一樣。


心理影響短期 還看基本因素

樓市從短期而言，確實會受股市及經濟消息影響，令買賣雙方心理上多了障礙，業主較願意傾價，而準買家出價就較保守。不過從較長線角度來看，太遠的不說，就翻看過去十年歷史。讀者不難發現，自03年沙士後，恆指一直升至07年，而樓市升至05年初後則以橫行為主，但07年10月股市見頂前後，樓價展開升浪，即使08年金融海嘯，股市跌至04年水平，樓市卻只回調至07年的升浪初期。今天，股市仍未返回07年頂峰，但樓價已比08年金融海嘯前上升約5成。

由此可見，股市樓市屬兩個市場，雖然經濟會影響其表現，但各自亦受不同基本因素影響，主導樓市的因素，如：新盤供應少、低利率、低失業率、高通脹等因素在未來一年仍未改變。因此，分析樓市時切記盲目跟股市比較而影響判斷。




2011年8月20日

輝筆論樓 - 鄺志輝

世紀21物業將軍澳董事總經理，04年起任香港專業地產顧問商會副會長，從事地產業務逾廿載，紮根將軍澳15個年頭。以其豐富經驗與各位談樓市、論政策。

[howgozit]

any English translation?

[ikan bilis]

常在後悔中

　　香港股市大跌15%後，一晚與太太晚飯，發覺她愁眉深鎖，問她是否在股票市場損失了很多錢，答案是出乎意料之外，她說﹕「在股票下跌前已經沽售了一半所持有的股票，現在只不過在後悔為甚麼當時不將股票全部沽清」。太太的說話使我想起家母以前曾經說過，若參與股票市場，很容易「常在後悔中」。

　　其實家母所說的理由亦非常簡單，當股票上升時，股民可能會後悔買得太少；當下跌時，則後悔為甚麼不將手上股票沽走，就算賺錢亦不開心，但又說不出一個已然。總之，就是不開心。

　　股神說﹕「越下跌越要買」，我有多少不明白，我記得另一位股神曾經說過一些投資股票戒條，其中有一條是永不溝淡，Never Average。現在越跌越買，亦即是溝淡，究竟兩位股神誰的投資策略正確？ 大家自己作一個判斷。

　　畢菲特所說﹕「越跌越買」，其實在賭場上，這是一條叫「神仙過鐵橋」的反方程式。若果閣下有足夠的現金，就算股票一直下跌，而你一直購買，但只要股票上升，必能使一部份股票賺錢，若升至最初購買時的股價，一定會有可觀的利潤，問題始終是否有足夠資金支持。

　　無論是「神仙過鐵橋」抑或是逆「神仙過鐵橋」方法，都不涉及槓桿原理。大不了全副身家輸掉，但是購買物業的人士大多數從銀行方面得到大部分資金，從八十年代9成按揭，到現今的5成按揭。若果槓桿比例太高，樓市一跌便走避不及，最終變成銀主盤，銀行再劈價出售。

　　本來，事情已經告一後落 ，但世事始終是有高低潮，樓市在1997年高峰下滑至2003年谷底，不少優質物業變成銀主盤被劈價出售，當2003年後，樓價節節上升，現在中原指數雖然與1997年高峰期時大致相同，但其中有個別優質物業升幅比高峰時以倍數計。今日，曾經擁有該些物業的人，面對如此升幅，實在是後悔非常，但投資是自己決定，一切與人無尤，又怨得誰。

　　友人問，股市大「冧」，樓市會不會大「冧」？我反問，在過去年多，政府為壓止樓價升勢，已經做了不少工作，又特別印花稅，又收緊按揭，但對股票市場不但沒有干預，反而加長了營業時間，美其名是與世界各地接軌，但實際上是希望各位再賭一會。就算股市大「冧」，導致樓市大「冧」，只要將實施的措施稍為放寬一些，供應減一些，樓市的跌勢便會調節過來，如此，樓市如何大「冧」？

　　樓市一日不「冧」，一日便會有很多人後悔，那些在2008、2009年錯信專業評論的人，將自住樓宇出售，等待時機回購。本來是與人無尤，但不斷有人挑釁，說樓市上升是由炒家做成，故此要政府出招滅絕炒家，反而將最主要因素「供應」忽略，當炒家滅絕，真正的因素浮現出來時，已經是遠水不能救近火，政府官員亦為此後悔不已。故此慌忙推出土地，又遇上股災，地產商對大型土地敬而遠之。雖然土地是以底價成交，但樓市仍不為所動，究竟樓市出了些甚麼狀況？

　　道理真的是很簡單，香港的業主都知道，現在將物業出售，就算真的是眼光獨到，但是樓市沒有15%以上跌幅，其實是得不償失，現在借貸又艱難，利息又比以前高出很多，一不小心，樓市不跌，則會變成無殼蝸牛。況且，真的是沒有專家說樓市會有15%以上跌幅，他們只會說可能有15%以上跌幅，故此，一動不如一靜，無謂他日自怨自艾「長在後悔中」。


汤文亮 紀惠集團行政總裁
2011/08/16


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Sorry, these people sometimes wrote in cantonese-chinese... google language translation does not work....

[hyenergix]

any English translation?

你是不是龙的传人?

[3C]

Can summarise and give the gist of the story?
One or 2 sentences will do

[howgozit]

你是不是龙的传人?

我是新加坡人. 你是什么人?


I thought this is an English forum that's why I asked.

Ok never mind... my Chinese not so powderful (especially traditional Chines) but I hope the rest of you guys enjoy the article.

[3C]

i only know this time is different from 2008.. inflation, jobs, blah blah there's why property price will hold and not drop. zhun bo?

[solsys]

Funds flooding into Singapore.... Property prices should hold up but those looking for good deals can try coz some will let go for fear markets taking a turn for the worst.

Question is would it be worse than Lehman?

Sovereign debt news taking centrestage but economic fundamentals still ok I think.

[Arcachon]

Often in regrets
Hong Kong stock market fell 15% after a late dinner with his wife and found her locked in distress, and asked her if she lost in the stock market a lot of money, the answer is unexpected, she said: "In selling the stock before the fall half of the shares owned, but now regret that I was not at all the stock sold out. " Wife's words reminded me of my mother said before, if the stock market, it is easy to "common in regrets."
In fact, my mother said the reasons are very simple, when the stock rises, investors may regret buying too little; when dropped, then the regret that I did not put away the stock on hand, even if money is no fun, but could not say a already. In short, is not happy.
Warren said: "The more down to buy more," I do not know how many, I remember another Warren once said that investing in stocks of some doctrine, which is never a ditch light, Never Average. Now more or more to buy, that is, ditch light, what two shares of the investment strategy of God who is right? We all make a judge.
Bi Buffett said: "The more or more to buy", in fact, in the casino, which is a called the "iron bridge over the gods," the anti-formula. If you have enough cash, even if the stock has been down, and you have to buy, but as long as stocks rise, part of the stock will make money if the share price rose to the initial purchase, there will be considerable profit, the question always whether there is sufficient financial support.

Whether it is "God over the iron bridge" or the reverse, "god over the iron bridge" method, do not involve leverage. Big deal to spend all his possessions lost, but most people who buy property to get most of the money from the banks, 90% mortgage from the eighties, to today's 5% mortgage. If the leverage ratio is too high, then fled the property market have fallen less, and ultimately becomes repossessed, the bank and then split prices.

Originally, things have come one after the other down, but things always have highs and lows, the property market peak in 1997, fell to the bottom in 2003, many high-quality properties become repossessed by splitting the sale price, when after 2003, prices steadily rise, although the index is now the Central Plains and the peak in 1997, when roughly the same, but there are some quality properties increase than the peak to multiply. Today, once people have used the property, the face of such increases, it is very sorry, but the investment is to decide for themselves, all with no particular person, and who complain too.

Friends asked, stock market, "Min", the property will not be great, "Min"? I asked, in the past year, the government press only prices rally, has done a lot of work, and especially stamp duty, and tighten the mortgage, but not only did not intervene in the stock market, but lengthened the hours of operation, the United States its name with the systems around the world, but then you actually want to bet for a while. Even if the stock market, "Min", resulting in the property market, "Min", as long as the measures will be implemented in slightly relax, reduce the supply of some, the decline in the property market will adjust over, so, how big the property market, "Min"?

Day is not property, "Min", a day many people will regret that mistake in 2008 and 2009 who believe professional reviews, will be owner-occupied housing for sale until they buy back. With no particular person had, but, there have been provocative, that made the property market rose by speculators and therefore the government moves to extinction speculators, but the most important factor "supply" ignored, when speculators become extinct, the real factors emerge, the is far from water can not put near the fire, government officials have this regret. So hurried introduction of land, are faced stock market crash, real estate developers for large land arm's length. Although land is the opening price, but the property market is still unmoved, what property of what situation?

Is really very simple reason that Hong Kong's owners know that the sale of their properties, even if true is a unique vision, but no more than 15% decline in the property market, is worth the candle, now lending and difficult, much higher interest off than before, accidentally, the property does not fall, it will become a snail without a shell. Moreover, experts say do not have more than 15% decline in the property market, they will say that there may be more than 15% decline, therefore, an action was better than, unnecessary future self-pity "long in regrets."


Tang Wenliang Yukie Group Chief Executive
2011/08/16

[Arcachon]

Property following the stock market crash?
Recent weeks, the spate of bad news, the stock market remain under pressure. Many have experienced the property market bubble and the 1997 Asian financial crisis of 1998 potential buyers are worried that the property market will follow the same year as the stock market crash. Let the author to analyze.
Different sources of storm
Ten years ago, the property market turn down, mainly due to the overheated property market, regardless of the contribution rate, interest rate and inflation rate showed a poor ill-health, coupled with speculation and Mount goods traded very much, many investors can not afford on the Council, any adverse factors which bear engraved buyers would rather set off for the tart, stop-loss to leave. Time, the Asian currencies (including Hong Kong) is predators attack, the whole of Asia into a financial mess, also directly avalanche down the property market.
Today, the stock market upward move by the financial tsunami top two percent callback promise, mainly due to debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. sovereign rating lowered, raising the prospects for global economic worries, and concerns about stagflation occurred. Word is, the core of the storm is not Asia, but the two former European market economic powerhouse, the local housing market, speculators are not at all impossible for people who type panic step down, showing that the two center of the storm of financial crisis not the same.
Psychological impact of short-term fundamentals still look
Property market in the short term, does the stock market and economic news will be affected by the impact of so many psychological barriers to buyers and sellers, landlords are more willing to dump prices, and potential buyers bid on the more conservative. But from the perspective of a long line, not too far that would look at the history of the past decade. Readers can easily find, since SARS in 2003, HSI has risen to 07, and the property market rose early in 2005 after the main places rampant, but in October 2007 after the stock market peaked, prices started upward move, even if 2008 financial crisis, the stock market fell to 2004 levels, only the callback property to the early 2007's upward move. Today, the stock market peak in 2007 has not yet returned, but the prices have more than 2008 before the financial tsunami, an increase of about 5 percent.
Thus, the stock and property markets are the two markets, although the economy will affect their performance, but each subject to different fundamental factors, the leading property market factors, such as: less new supply, low interest rates, low unemployment, high inflation and other factors In the coming year has not changed. Therefore, the analysis of property market in the stock market when compared with the blind bear in mind to affect judgments.




August 20, 2011

Hui pen on the floor - Kwong Chi Fai

Managing Director of Century 21 Property Tseung Kwan O, Hong Kong in 2004 was appointed vice president of the Chamber of Professional Property Consultants, the real estate business for over Nianzai, rooted in Tseung Kwan O. 15 years. Their experience with you about the property market, on the policy.

[hyenergix]

我是新加坡人. 你是什么人?


I thought this is an English forum that's why I asked.

Ok never mind... my Chinese not so powderful (especially traditional Chines) but I hope the rest of you guys enjoy the article.

10 years later I think Chinese economy (if there is no crash in China) might rule the world. Our trade with China is increasing and we will be more dependent on China for non-oil export: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/the...ess/essa67.pdf My Chinese language is not strong either, but I'm trying my best to read so that I can keep up with the changes.

[howgozit]

10 years later I think Chinese economy (if there is no crash in China) might rule the world. Our trade with China is increasing and we will be more dependent on China for non-oil export: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/the...ess/essa67.pdf My Chinese language is not strong either, but I'm trying my best to read so that I can keep up with the changes.

Yep you are right China is on track to rule the world.

But for me, to know Chinese is more for heritage reasons rather than economic reasons. The truth is, even our best Singapore student in the Chinese language is only considered average in China, we'll never beat them.

For me, I am just working on a proficiency that hopefully doesn't embarass that's all. Traditional Chinese? haha..worse, but not to worry, Hong Kongers and Taiwanese will forgive me lah.

Cheers!

[ikan bilis]

Everything shrinking... I went to best denki: fridge becomes slimmer but taller.. washing machine also so slim that like drum could hit/knock the sides easily... and most of the dinning tables drawn on new 2bdr floorplans are KFC size tables...


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(BizTimes) Published August 23, 2011

More units cranked out as home sizes shrink

Study shows that actual number of private homes on GLS sites exceeded estimates

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE)

A study by Savills Singapore has put some hard numbers to the big lure of small apartments. Developers have been squeezing out more units on sites bought at state land tenders in recent years than was initially estimated.

The study was based on 51 private housing sites including seven executive condo (EC) plots sold under the 2006-2010 Government Land Sale (GLS) Programme and took in projects launched up to Aug 10 this year.

The total number of private homes actually generated on these sites will exceed the GLS Programme estimates by about 11 per cent. Excluding EC sites, the surplus supply is slightly higher at 12 per cent.

Urban Redevelopment Authority's spokesperson said: 'The estimated number of residential units in the GLS announcement is intended to serve as a guide only.'

Once developers that have bought sites at state tenders receive planning approvals, URA uses actual supply numbers for estimating pipeline supply.
Savills' study shows that the supply from projects on each of eight sites exceed the supply estimate in the GLS Programme by more than 40 per cent. Savills found that a substantial portion of units in these developments are below 800 sq ft, and in some cases, even under 500 sq ft.

While shoebox units have fuelled the trend of developers minting more units in their projects, this was mitigated by ECs, a public-private hybrid housing form targeted at families and where units are larger. The government began selling EC land in 2010 after a five-year hiatus.

Another finding in the study is that the trend of producing 'surplus' units over the GLS Programme supply estimate gathered momentum after 2007. Private residential sites tendered under the 2007 GLS Programme generated just about 3 per cent more units than estimated in the Programme. This surplus increased to 9 per cent for sites sold in the 2008 GLS slate, 14 per cent for 2009 plots and - if EC sites are included - 15 per cent for 2010 GLS sites. If EC sites are excluded, the last figure would be 19 per cent.

During the 2007 luxury housing boom, large apartments were in vogue, but demand for them thinned when the Global Financial Crisis erupted in 2008. 'When the home buying recovery began in 2009, developers took to building smallish units to make the lumpsum apartment price more affordable to a larger pool of buyers while achieving higher per square foot prices,' notes Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong. Besides shoebox units (loosely defined as below 500 sq ft), sizes of two and three-bedders have also shrunk to 'compact' units at some projects.

Savills highlighted that projects with more than 40 per cent 'surplus units' generally have a substantial portion of small units. Examples include Allgreen's Suites at Orchard at Handy Road, where 47 per cent of the project's total 118 units are below 800 sq ft, and the 360-unit Skysuites@Anson at Enggor Street, with 44 per cent of units under 500 sq ft and 88 per cent below 800 sq ft.

Far East Organization projects The Greenwich at Seletar Road, The Tennery in Bukit Panjang and the recently launched Euhabitat at Jalan Eunos have 50 per cent, 67 per cent and 59 per cent respectively of units below 800 sq ft - though all units are above 500 sq ft.

Savills' figures show that 'surplus production' tends to be smaller for EC plots - in line with the fact that EC projects do not include one bedders. If EC sites are excluded, the proportion of surplus private homes on sites sold under the 2010 GLS Programme against the supply estimate was 19 per cent. If ECs are included, the surplus is just 15 per cent.

This difference is more pronounced for plots in the H2 2010 slate, with 19 per cent 'surplus units' if EC sites are excluded and 13 per cent if they are included. This is on the back of three EC projects released on H2 2010 sites - the 315-unit Belysa in Pasir Ris, the 602-unit Blossom Residences at Segar Road and 504-unit RiverParc Residence in Punggol.

URA said it regularly reviews space standards, that is, gross floor area per housing unit, used to estimate the number of homes that can be generated from GLS sites for residential developments. 'The most recent review, which covers residential projects in all locations..., was done in 2010 and the updated space standards were adopted since the H1 2011 GLS Programme,' its spokesperson said.

DTZ South-east Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah observed that over the past 15-20 years, the typical size of a three-bedroom apartment has shrunk from about 1,600 sq ft to 1,200 sq ft, with compact three bedders at 1,000-1,100 sq ft.

'This trend has been driven by the increase in land prices and pressure to keep lumpsum home prices affordable, as well as population increase, smaller family sizes, advent of small home appliances - even vacuum cleaners are smaller these days - and changes in lifestyle patterns with the Gen Y wanting their own place,' said Mrs Ong.

[ikan bilis]

this 1 not that real estate related but provides glimpse into current world economy....


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Aug 22, 2011


Nouriel Roubini: Is Capitalism Doomed?

The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns.

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to reflate asset prices and trigger economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus, near-zero interest rates, two rounds of “quantitative easing,” ring-fencing of bad debt, and trillions of dollars in bailouts and liquidity provision for banks and financial institutions: officials tried them all. Now they have run out of rabbits.

Fiscal policy currently is a drag on economic growth in both the eurozone and the UK. Even in the US, state and local governments, and now the federal government, are cutting expenditure and reducing transfer payments. Soon enough, they will be raising taxes.

Another round of bank bailouts is politically unacceptable and economically unfeasible: most governments, especially in Europe, are so distressed that bailouts are unaffordable; indeed, their sovereign risk is actually fueling concern about the health of Europe’s banks, which hold most of the increasingly shaky government paper.

Nor could monetary policy help very much. Quantitative easing is constrained by above-target inflation in the eurozone and UK. The US Federal Reserve will likely start a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but it will be too little too late. Last year’s $600 billion QE2 and $1 trillion in tax cuts and transfers delivered growth of barely 3% for one quarter. Then growth slumped to below 1% in the first half of 2011. QE3 will be much smaller, and will do much less to reflate asset prices and restore growth.

Currency depreciation is not a feasible option for all advanced economies: they all need a weaker currency and better trade balance to restore growth, but they all cannot have it at the same time. So relying on exchange rates to influence trade balances is a zero-sum game. Currency wars are thus on the horizon, with Japan and Switzerland engaging in early battles to weaken their exchange rates. Others will soon follow.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Italy and Spain are now at risk of losing market access, with financial pressures now mounting on France, too. But Italy and Spain are both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out. For now, the European Central Bank will purchase some of their bonds as a bridge to the eurozone’s new European Financial Stabilization Facility. But, if Italy and/or Spain lose market access, the EFSF’s €440 billion ($627 billion) war chest could be depleted by the end of this year or early 2012.

Then, unless the EFSF pot were tripled – a move that Germany would resist – the only option left would become an orderly but coercive restructuring of Italian and Spanish debt, as has happened in Greece. Coercive restructuring of insolvent banks’ unsecured debt would be next. So, although the process of deleveraging has barely started, debt reductions will become necessary if countries cannot grow or save or inflate themselves out of their debt problems.

So Karl Marx, it seems, was partly right in arguing that globalization, financial intermediation run amok, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct (though his view that socialism would be better has proven wrong). Firms are cutting jobs because there is not enough final demand. But cutting jobs reduces labor income, increases inequality and reduces final demand.

Recent popular demonstrations, from the Middle East to Israel to the UK, and rising popular anger in China – and soon enough in other advanced economies and emerging markets – are all driven by the same issues and tensions: growing inequality, poverty, unemployment, and hopelessness. Even the world’s middle classes are feeling the squeeze of falling incomes and opportunities.

To enable market-oriented economies to operate as they should and can, we need to return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of laissez-faire and voodoo economics and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Both are broken.

The right balance today requires creating jobs partly through additional fiscal stimulus aimed at productive infrastructure investment. It also requires more progressive taxation; more short-term fiscal stimulus with medium- and long-term fiscal discipline; lender-of-last-resort support by monetary authorities to prevent ruinous runs on banks; reduction of the debt burden for insolvent households and other distressed economic agents; and stricter supervision and regulation of a financial system run amok; breaking up too-big-to-fail banks and oligopolistic trusts.

Over time, advanced economies will need to invest in human capital, skills and social safety nets to increase productivity and enable workers to compete, be flexible and thrive in a globalized economy. The alternative is – like in the 1930s – unending stagnation, depression, currency and trade wars, capital controls, financial crisis, sovereign insolvencies, and massive social and political instability.

[ikan bilis]

26 Aug 2011... TODAYonline
=> Colin Tan's advice (To newbie): Go for subsidised new HDB flats, and hold back any investment on private condo....


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Advice for newly-formed households



Go for subsidised new HDB flats - it is your entitlement
by Colin Tan
04:46 AM Aug 26, 2011


In a weekend feature article, prospective buyers of homes - both for own occupation and for investment - got a huge dose of advice from property experts, consultants and even developers. Much of the advice was not new but there were many good reminders amid the volatile and uncertain economic environment - both locally and globally.

However, the needs of newly-formed households were not addressed as most had assumed that the majority in this group do not really have a choice but to apply for new public housing flats.

But in case you are one of those new households in a dilemma as to what you should do because you have a choice, I would say: Go for new public housing flats if you qualify, even if you can afford better. After all, it is every citizen's entitlement to subsidised housing. Why buy a private unit that is not subsidised?

And unless your housing needs leave you with no choice, avoid buying HDB resale flats as prices today are determined by a very unusual set of market circumstances - a combination of a severe supply crunch and a wayward price spiral in the private housing market. With sounder housing policies being put in place, such a scenario would not likely happen again for a very long time.

For all households, affordability should be a top concern. You do not want to spend your whole life working to pay off your mortgage or have your chances of upgrading minimised. Remember, HDB resale flat prices are at their highest now. Yes, they may continue to rise for a bit more due to the current supply crunch - but what after that?

Also in my opinion, the current prices are unsustainable. The majority of new households just cannot afford them, which is why the HDB is selling a lot more new flats - 25,000 units this year and another 25,000 in the next. Leave the market to those who do not have a choice. The premium factor for resale flats today may also negate whatever CPF housing grant you may be receiving.

With the recent raising of the household income ceiling to S$12,000 per month for Executive Condominium (EC) units, more households now qualify for them. If you are one of those thinking of EC apartments as your first buy, do remember that the units are priced to achieve a profit and at a level that the market can bear. Under the current market conditions, who do you think has the upper hand? Moreover, you are competing with the sandwiched class who have no choice but to apply for ECs.

If you are thinking of the investment potential of your first buy and you want to buy something other than new HDB flats, you would be wise to set this thought aside in the current economic environment. It is already difficult to arrive at a "correct" choice in a stable market, what more when the present environment is in such a turmoil.

Nobody can predict the future. When you consider the investment potential of a purchase, you are actually gambling. You are taking a position on the market - that it will continue to rise in the future. It was less of a gamble in the past as Singapore - or the world for that matter - was a lot less complex than it is today.

Most new households are not sophisticated in that they do not follow the developments in the housing market closely. But those who do may be worried about the oversupply of HDB resale flats some seven to eight years down the road. This is because the 50,000 HDB flats sold this year and the next will mature then. Will resale prices be depressed then?

Anything can happen between now and then to drastically alter the market scenario. Nevertheless, with more selling their units, you can expect prices to be softer. And if there is no support from HDB upgraders, mass market private prices will have to come down to link the two markets again.

If you think about it, it is not really a negative situation to sell low and buy low when upgrading. In fact, it is the ideal situation. The loan quantum needed is actually smaller to sell lower and buy lower by, say 10 per cent, than to sell higher and buy higher by 10 per cent. Work it out yourself.



The writer is head of research & consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

[ikan bilis]

Sorry ah... another one in cantonese-chinese... no translation...


公屋-rental flat, like HDB rental flat
居屋-govt subsidised flat, like BTO-HDB here
置業-Buy/Own properties
樓奴-Mortgage slave
止蝕-Cutting loss
特別印花稅- SSD, Special Stamp Duty, Similar to our Seller's Stamp Duty


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
買樓自住，何需理會世界經濟形勢

　　很多人在網上討論樓市去向，往往引經據典，印圖列表，甚至將世界經濟形勢，國與國之間的和睦關係亦作考慮。如此小心、謹慎，最後的結果是永遠亦不用置業。

　　但又不能說他們是錯的，置業是人生大事，畢生投資，有時勝負真的是在此一役。若果將置業的問題簡化一些，置業是自住的話，亦即是個人的需要，只要因應個人的能力，何需理會世界經濟形勢。

　　三國時，司馬懿說諸葛亮一生謹慎，不會佈空城計，因此不敢揮軍進入空城，錯失大好良機。其實，司馬懿又何嘗不是謹慎？若果，他當時量力而為，分兵一半進入空城，諸葛亮亦會成為階下囚。

　　若果購買自住物業持相當謹慎的態度，又要憂天下之憂而憂。而世界經濟形勢，又瞬息萬變，正是顧得頭來腳反筋，如何會置業？最後，一定會錯失很多機會。依我所見，毋須理會那些因素，只考慮純個人問題，量力而為，是否置業？ 這個問題便會簡單得多。

　　當某人決定置業時，便會出現很多軍師，並不是說「Location，Location，Location」，而是說「小心，小心，小心」，這些都是紅鬚軍師，倒米壽星。若果是置業者同輩，他們的說話實際帶有醋味，若果是置業者長輩，凡事叫人小心這一條是金科玉律。不過，亦沒有鼓勵性、積極性，不說也罷。

　　若果有後輩問我置業的問題，我只會回答一個字「好」，要我再加上一些句字，我只會再說「要量力而為」。

　　其實，有很多人在置業時心大心細，不斷問人，其實並不是尋求答案，而是心裡仍未決定置業，只不過當有人向他們說，要小心，要看世界經濟形勢，置業要認真考慮。他日，他們未有置業，但樓價上升，他們便會指責曾經出主意的朋友，說若果不是他們阻撓，便會一早置業，現在是損失慘重，所以，有人問我，我真的是只會說一個「好」字。

　　初次置業者並不是不需要考慮，反而要作多方面考慮。首先，置業後定必要放棄一些優質生活，少坐的士，少上餐館，少蒲酒吧，因為家裡便是一個安樂窩，但慢慢地會發覺一切的犧牲都是值得的，十年八載後，物業升值，亦即是個人資產增多，回想過往的辛酸，淡淡哀愁中亦有快感。願有物業者，共勉之。

　　與此同時，他們可能亦會受到同輩嘲笑，說他是「樓奴」，何不申請「公屋」，他日更有機會申請「居屋」，不用給地產商搾取利潤，亦見同輩終日優哉游哉，此實在是最難抵擋的挑戰及誘惑。

　　從第二間物業開始，置業者亦要有所改變，今次一定要謹慎為主，亦要參詳外來因素，供需問題，利息走勢，因為第二個物業並不能夠分類成為個人需要，而是投資，為此亦要看清形勢，否則，投資錯誤是會影響個人及家庭，必需小心。

　　不過，尚未作出首次置業的人士亦不用太心急，若樓市繼續向上，政府必定會再出辣招，使樓價向下調整。當樓價下跌一定時間後，政府必家會放寬一些措施，銀行亦會放寬按揭，來使樓價穩定。屆時，是入市良機，請注意。

汤文亮 紀惠集團行政總裁
01/09/2011

[Komo]

Must read in Cantonese then can appreciate the article

[ikan bilis]

About speculators, flippers, investors, stuckists, self-staying, market critics...


短炒- flipping
套現- Cash out
地產霸權- Real Estate Bullies, refering to big HK developers
居屋- Subsidized flats, same as BTO-HDB here
客觀- Objective point of view
興之所至- Driven by mood/enthusiasm
筍盤- undervalue property (笋在广东话里面是好,划算的意思,这是音译,平时广东话里说的"笋嘢",就是指好的,划算的东西或事情. 笋盘在这里指的就是性价比好的楼盘,这是完完全全的广东话音译, Source: Baidu)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
買樓最忌口不對心
文章日期：2011年9月5日


【明報專訊】若有人問筆者，投資包括買樓的最大敵人為何？我一定會回答是「口不對心」，又或是對自己不誠實。

實在見得太多，有人明明是想短炒，但市道逆轉時，卻變成了長線投資者，才會出現所謂被人「一Q清袋」的情。又有一些人，入市時說自己是長線投資者，但只要樓價稍錄升幅，便急不及待地賣樓套現，然後說錢放進口袋裏，才是自己的，之後，樓市升完再升，便歸咎「地產霸權」害人。

又好像一些不斷要求政府復建居屋的人士，市場明明有大量二手居屋供應，卻等了又等，非新居屋不買，但如2008年金融海嘯時，政府出售居屋貨尾，申請人數卻又是慘不忍睹。


對自己不誠實 難客觀部署

一些說自己是用家，但卻不怕貴的只會追買高水新盤，買了後發覺樓價升幅不及同區二手樓，又會說被發展商所騙……。

筆者不是為發展商說話，只是想說，當一個人對自己也不誠實，又如何會客觀的分析市道，以及作理智的部署？從來，成功的投資者，都不會是興之所至做入市或出市決定，而是早早作出部署，當遇到機會，便會按早已作出的計劃行動，又或當市道與預期有所出入時，也能冷靜面對，從容應付。

本報在7月時舉辦的樓市研討會，當時邀得管理市值近200億元資產的紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮作演講嘉賓，他當時指出，樓市確存在不明朗因素， 現時炒家不能做，自住看能力，作為有實力的投資者，則可繼續做「收租佬」，採取「不賣少買」的策略，即既不用沽出優質物業，但要入貨，則要遇見「筍盤」才考慮。


廖太少買不賣 說到做到

他是否只說不做，又或口不對心？紀團集團近期確未見減磅，而湯文亮更在上周五，為其姐姐、紀惠主席廖湯慧靄簽約，以2.51億元，以私人身分購入九龍塘施他佛道4號屋地，每呎樓面成交地價高達4.16萬元，創區內屋地地價新高，以行動印證其「不賣少買」的說法。
前述的成功投資者要有部署，更要有實力，就如這宗成交，原來廖太早於4年前已以2.38億元購入毗鄰的施他佛道6至8號，今回再購入4號，地皮價值勢可產生協同效應。想一想，如廖太一早因6至8號屋已大幅升值而沽出獲利，又或在近期銀行收水喉而實力不足，便也難趁調整市，完成「千金難買相連地」的機會。



■本文同時收錄在逢周一至周五「明報置業網」：
property.mpfinance.com的《陸振球專欄》
陸振球

[Laguna]

why, so many are now interested in HK property market?

some of the news/opinions I read
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/info.html
http://www.ricacorp.com.hk/cms/template.aspx?series=1
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm
http://forum.hkpropertycity.net/phpbb2/index.php

The articles in this topic were copied from one of these links

[ikan bilis]

I have no intention to buy any HK properties. Me just a small fish...

Following HK news closely because of HK market is very similar to S’pore market, and HK side their responses/reactions are faster and more volatile.
- Both markets flooded with liquidity
- Both markets having problems of low interest rate
- Foreign buyers (Mainland China) buying up the properties in both markets
- Similar types of cooling measures, SSD 15-16%, Low LTV (40-50% downpayment)
- Same problems of shortages of subsidized flats

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This writer here had been always a big BULL in real estate, so please read with a big spoon of salt.

Anyway, what he says is quite true… Some buying-power “Energy” keeps building up, and when will be the next volcanic eruption?
- People’s savings building up
- More liquidity/carry trade from USA/Europe
- More immigrants or FT



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
市場購買力何時會爆發？


　　政府壓抑樓價，打擊炒樓，收緊按揭，但樓價不跌，成交量則減少了很多。事實上，每一日市場上都會積聚一些購買力，連同外來因素。若果，他日購買力爆發，樓價只有上升一途，問題是﹕幾時？

　　無論股市、樓市或其他商品，都會有不同聲音，不同理論說上升，抑或下跌。在年初時，差不多所有股票大師都說恒指今年會超越28,000點，其中又有不少大師已經修改，現在他們又改口說﹕「恒指今年內會下跌至18,000點，亦應有支持力」。不過，大家亦不在意，因為近年港人炒賣股票已經沒有往日那麼瘋狂，投資金額亦不會很大，所以輸贏都不大上心。況且，大家都設定了一條死線，到達底線便入貨，達到頂線便沽貨，亦不理會甚麼專家的言論，所以政府又要加時，又要開拓多一些品種美其名說來吸引投資，其實是炒賣。對此以下，又以各種措施打壓樓市，真的是有點無可奈何。

　　當市道上升時，股票與樓宇是有不同，在股票市場，正如股神四叔所說，在升至某一點會放一些股票，升至另一點亦會放一些，其他人亦會是一樣，當股票越升，股民手上的股票會越少，樓市便不同，當市民積聚了一批購買力，而政府亦開始放寬措施，樓市上升，市民本身的資產便會形成了購買力，推動樓市繼續上升，而市民的資產繼續升值，形成了更多購買力，直至樓價與市場脫節或者政府再度使出打擊炒樓措施。

　　今次政府使出打擊炒樓措施，最初的如意算盤是樓價可以急速地下跌30%，讓那些未有上車的人把握機會上車，該批購買力可以將樓價穩定下來，慢慢再將樓市推上。

　　但出招後，樓價是出乎意料之外，不跌反升，在出招前未有置業的人士依然未有置業，再加上一年來積聚的購買力，實在是非同小可，幾時會爆？可以這樣說，隨時。

　　本來，按正常情況，美國應該加息，而香港金管局要求的壓力測減利率亦訂於4.5%，在此利率下，將會消耗殆盡很多人置業的信心，但佰南克宣佈長期低息政策，無形中加強港人置業信心，使人們覺得在現時情況，樓市下跌的機會已經不大，只有等候大家一起行動的時間，屆時，便會一窩蜂地置業，樓市會有一輪急速升勢。

　　日後樓市的走勢不會是波浪形，將會是每一次都會急速的上升，時間快而短。當購買力消耗殆盡後，樓市便會維持在該水平，或者會有小幅度下調，直至市場又儲蓄一定購買力，再爆發，再上升。是甚麼形態？是梯形。

　　當然，樓市的走勢又不是如此這般的容易預測，但是這樣的升市最少可以維持2次至3次，樓市亦會會有大約15%至20%升幅。若果是預測準確，政府將會受很大壓力，當日相信政府有能力將樓價壓下去的人，不但已經付了很多年租金，樓價更上升至一個更難負擔的水平，他們不會將怨氣指向政府，而是將怨氣指向一些有樓人士，或者當然是地產霸權。在利息未上調前，政府唯有增加供應來減低樓價升勢，但若果供應太多，適逢利息上調，樓價便會有很大壓力，亦非政府及普羅市民之福，應小心處理。

　　昨天賣地後，有投行表示港樓價會下跌三成，其實，今次賣地成績比九肚山好，地價相差1仟多元，他日售價一定相差5仟多元。其次，其他中、小型地產商有能力參與拍賣的土地成交價其實不俗，所以，政府應改變一下勾地及土地拍賣方法。

　　樓市瞬間萬變，現階段應一動不如一靜，大家應保護自己資產，待謀定而後動，一於「任憑風浪起，穩坐釣魚船」。



汤文亮 紀惠集團行政總裁
07/09/2011

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
樓市尚未具備大跌條件


　　甚麼是大跌？我相信是最少跌3成或以上。換句話說，以中原指數最高點大約100點計算下跌3成，即是下跌至70點。雖然有評論員、有學者認為有可能，但我個人認為，樓市尚未具備下跌至如此地步的條件。

　　有人會說，樓市從1997年高峰，下跌至2003年，足足有70%，今次下跌3成怎麼不大可能，說這話的人一些未經歷過1997年樓市的風險，他們當然經歷過1997，但只是在其年份，並不身處樓市買賣交易當中，故此說這話。若果他們知道人們在1997年怎樣投資物業，其瘋狂程度與現今的人相比，可以說是一在地平一在天，沒有瘋狂的上升，又何來會沒有理性急挫？況且，現在投資物業的人，早已吸取前人投資失誤的教訓，小心投資，所以我這樣說，大跌的條件尚未形成。要大跌，首先全港參與投資物業的人數激增，「摸」貨轉讓頻繁，樓價只是出現乾升現象。現在，最新「摸」貨成交量佔市場不足1%，而且，成交的物業大多數是宣佈徵收特別印花稅前已買入。現在獲利「摸」走而已，沒有「摸」貨影響，樓價上升是確確實實 ，要下跌亦要確確實實，並不是撻訂便算了。這樣，持貨的人要三思後才會將物業出售。

　　其次是欠債比率，我沒有確實數據1997當時的物業持有人的平均欠債比率，但「摸」貨撻訂導致樓市急速下挫三成，不少物業已經變成銀主盤。如今，欠債比率是54%，就算樓市下跌3成，銀主盤亦不會多，沒有銀主盤，即是銀行沒有權將按揭物業劈價出售，樓市大跌的可能性亦不大。

　　促使業主不將物業出讓其中一個主因是回報，1997年物業空置率偏高，業主們不斷降價求租，將租金推低至一個極不合理的水平。有些商業大廈，租金與管理費差不多，實在是非常恐怖。當時的業主或投資物業的人，都是抱著做一日和尚敲一日鐘的心態，亦知道物業會隨時變成銀主盤，只是希望風雨早一日過去而已。

　　回報差，但是支出大。正常的利息支出已經比現在大了數倍，若果是資不抵債的話，更加要付出多一些利息，可以說是百上加斤。當時擁有物業的人，若借貸太重，利息是每日蠶食資產，若情況不改變，總有一日會變成負資產者，所以有不少人迫不得已將物業出售。

　　今日當然是不同，低息早已持續多年，伯南克表明最少亦有兩年低息，但租金則超越1997，更有上升趨勢。換句話說，今日的業主每日都會減少一些債項，終有一日，所擁有的物業變成「零」負債。若果不過分投資，現今投資物業可以說是有贏冇輸，就算現在買樓都不是傻仔。

　　大家可能有一個誤解，認為國內人士炒賣香港的樓宇。其實，每一位國內人士他們只不過買一層樓作自住或投資，很少牽涉炒賣，但人數實在太多，他們只是買貴香港樓宇。

　　尚有很多利好的因素，例如失業率比1997年低得多，移民離開的人減少，而回流的人增多，物業亦是必需品，在供少需多的情況下，樓價上升亦是正常的。

　　但是今日閣下問是否是置業良機？我認為既然這麼多年都沒有買樓，倒不如多等一會，就算樓價上升只是損失了機會，倘若下跌就會輸掉老本，不值得冒險。



汤文亮 紀惠集團行政總裁
19/09/2011

[ikan bilis]

Some news here...
Beijing Sub-Urban property prices crashed by 50%
GuangZhou property prices crashed by 20%

... Ummm... how true??...
... HeeHee... me also don't know...

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http://society.people.com.cn/GB/15670706.html

京郊楼盘降价一半以上 退房或补差价缺乏法律依据



人民网记者 曾高飞
2011年09月15日17:58 来源：人民网手机看新闻

　　在中央政府对房价宏观调控影响下，北京住房市场观望情绪继续加剧，开发商在2011年中秋假期出师不利，期待“金九银十”赚一把的想法正在落空。

　　价格战悄然拉开 京郊楼盘降价一半以上

　　很多开发商都想打好“金九银十”的开局之仗。所以，他们备足了资源，准备中秋假期大干一场。

　　位于北京通州的京贸国际城把房价一调再调，从2010年的2.6万/平米下调到1.98万元/平米，但近日再推特价房，直降6000元，均价降至1.4万—1.5万元/平米，仅为最高值的约50%。

　　通州曾经领涨北京房市。由北京珠江房地产开发有限公司开发的珠江拉维小镇曾经领涨通州。在中秋期间，拉维小镇成了“降价急先锋”。记者看到，拉维小镇在建项目的围墙上刷着斗大的墙体广告语，就是以价格为主要诉求点，那几个大字为“直降50万”。

　　据业内人士介绍，北京偏远郊县房价已经跌回到两年前，即与2009年底的价格不相上下。最高时卖到2.8万元/平米的通州地王房产项目润枫领尚，目前出现了不到最高价时一半的价格，即1.3万元/平米。在通州以半价出售的楼盘，已经不止润枫领尚一家。通州二手房十大低价楼盘均价已经低至6400元/平米。

　　大兴和房山，低价楼盘已经批量出现，新楼盘价格已经明显下降。9月11日，有微博称，大兴地铁口附近多个二手楼盘均价已经跌破1万元/平米。海淀也出现了1.4万/平米的楼盘。曾经平均价格接近3万/平米的望京，均价跌破了2万/平米，有的已经喊出了1.9万/平米。链家地产销售员小李向记者介绍，低价楼盘在北京已经小规模出现，最近均价在1.5万/平米的楼盘数量已经突破了十家。

　　产经观察家彭雄江认为，目前市场对房价下行幅度还有很大预期，开发商不下“猛药”已经无法刺激消费者的购房“欲望”，与此同时，开发商面临年终业绩盘点和资金紧张等问题“逼宫”，到了把价格作为提升销量主要手段的关键时刻。

　　“金九”已经过半，从上半场的情况来看，今年金九褪色几成定局。据中原地产统计，中秋假期，北京新房成交仅为199套，同比不到50%。而业内预计北京年内库存量或超过13万套。

　　退房和补偿差价无法理依据 专家呼吁理性购房

　　房价快速下降刺激着业主的神经，不少在高位价格购房的业主，已经表现出明显的悔意，要开发商退房或者要求补偿差价成为他们的主要诉求。

　　京贸国际城一位急着退房的黄姓业主对记者抱怨：我们当初购房碰上房价涨得厉害，所以在最高点入市了，现在一下子掉到一万四五，不到一年时间100多万资产说没就没了。

　　负责世华泊郡开发的世纪鸿城销售副总经理陈维其向记者透露，已经有业主由于不满当初售价过高，现在要求退房。半年降价6000元的京贸国际城，则在中秋假期遭遇了业主集体要求退房和补偿差价的风波。

　　中国营销学会副理事长洪仕斌认为，随着调控导致的房价下跌，要求退房情况或将规模出现，因为购房价格实在太高，现在房价下降空间很大，巨大落差难让购房者心理平衡。

　　洪仕斌认为，从开发商自身利益和目前形势来看，开发商是不愿意退房和补偿差价的，特别是在房产市场形势不好的关键时候，如果退房和补偿差价的闸门一旦打开，局面将变得难以收拾。

　　购房合同一旦签订，买和卖似乎是周瑜打黄盖——一方愿打，一方愿挨的事。开发商不愿退房和补偿差价，也合情合法，只能怪业主购房时没把握好机会。“除非购房合同有约定，房价下降开发商需要补偿差价外，业主购买房产就应承担房价波动的风险。”湖南溥天律师事务所唐波律师在接受记者采访时表示，购房合同双方是平等法律关系主体，只要开发商已经取得了法律规定的证件，合同内容本身合法，签订的购房合同是具有法律效力的。不会因房价的波动，而影响购房合同本身的效力。

　　唐波认为，目前普遍采用的购房合同是房产局的范本，此范本不包括房价下跌业主可以要求退房或者补偿差价的规定。所以，消费者理智购房才是上策。

　　洪仕斌表示，政府调控效果显现，此轮房价涨跌的经验教训有利于培养房产市场的理智消费意识，而理性购房时代的到来将有利于促进房地产市场的稳定规范发展。


（责任编辑：崔东）


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http://house.people.com.cn/GB/15658049.html

中秋三日广州楼市销量同比跌六成 均价降近二成



赵燕华
2011年09月14日15:18 来源：《羊城晚报》 手机看新闻

　　中秋三天，广州一手楼市遭遇了一轮“冷空气”侵袭，全市成交量同比大幅跌落61.8%，成交均价同比下降18.2%。

　　记者踩盘发现，相较于当前众多开发商抢先推货，试水“十一”的热闹场面，购房者则心态谨慎。有业内人士则表示，整体来看今年下半年楼市成交量仍然会较淡。

　　根据网易房产监控阳光家缘数据显示，今年中秋三天(9月10日-9月12日)全市十区二市一手住宅网签成交量为355套，同比去年中秋三日(9月20日-9月22日)的929套，下滑幅度达61.8%。成交均价方面，今年中秋三天全市成交均价为11309元/平方米，同比去年中秋三日13831元/平方米的成交均价，下降了18.2%。

　　中秋三日各区冷热不均较明显。根据阳光家缘数据显示，全市十区在今年9月10日-9月12日三天的成交量仅为255套，相较于去年中秋三日787套的成交量，下降幅度达67.6%。而增城、从化两市成交量(100套)同比仅下降29.6%，可见十区成交量的大幅下降拉低了全市的成交量成绩。

　　在当前众多郊区盘大打优惠战的时候，中心城区的房价仍显坚挺。根据网易房产数据中心今日发布的“中秋三日全市网签成交均价前十榜”显示，榜上有名的十“贵”楼盘均位于广州市内十区范围，其中越秀区的爱群荟景湾、天河区的瑞安创逸和荔湾区的龙津华府名列前三，成交均价皆在2万元/平方米以上，爱群荟景湾均价甚至高达5万元/平方米，且无任何优惠。

　　数据显示，中秋三日广州新四区二市(花都、南沙、番禺、黄埔、增城、从化)的成交量为271套，占全市成交量76.3%，其同比下降的幅度也小于中心六区。

　　另外，阳光家缘数据也显示，“金九银十”首周(9月1日-9月9日)仅萝岗、黄埔、花都、南沙四区的成交量就达869套，比上月同期增长了119个百分点。可见，在全市成交量趋冷的情况下，中心六区以外的部分区域楼市仍较为乐观。值得一提的是，目前打折和优惠活动频繁的楼盘也多集中在广州近郊四区与增城、从化两市。

　　广州经纬房产研究部经理朱欣苑表示：“目前的楼市的确较淡。”据其调研发现，目前就整体而言，开发商仍显得比较淡定，大举打折降价的情况也较少。就接下来的十一黄金周来说，由于外部环境不甚乐观，开发商很有可能会继续保持谨慎态度，楼市也会显得相对稳定。

　　另外，朱欣苑分析认为，上半年销量波动较大的中心区，在下半年将呈现供应减少的情况，除了个别楼盘成交量可能会见涨，整体而言中心区下半年成交量将不如上半年。记者赵燕华报道


（责任编辑：孙红丽）

[Laguna]

The impact of the cooling measures is being felt now.
Limiting 2 units per household..and no foreigers' purchase allowed unless with a year stay in the city concerned

[Laguna]

pl read news from bloomberge

China Home Prices Rise in All Cities, Defying State Curbs


http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ate-curbs.html

[westman]

Good information and it save alot of trouble to go to other websites to read.
No offend to fellow forumer, SBR and I hope more postings like ikan bilis and less "SBR" type of postings.

[ikan bilis]

“Alternative asset classes”

1. All types of real estates to the HongKongers (or HongKi) are “fry-able”… as long as good profit potential… they have car park space fried up to S$200-300K…



2. The write up on Business Time (15 Sep) is very comprehensive... => All you need to know about investing in industrial properties... Cool!..

But hor, I do not suggest anybody to cheong industrial properties now,
as...
- All the speculators had been chased over to industrial properties due to low quantum and no SSD. No bubble in residential (control too tight until you cannot breath) but bubble could form in industrial (boh chenghu there)
- Price already too high now, for example now you could get a 10yr old near MRT EC at ~700psf, but the near MRT 60yr new industrial properties at UBI already hitting ~650psf (bare unit).

BTW: I bought 1 small unit industrial space at ~$150K 4-5yrs ago. Market price at >$320K now, rented out at $2.1K (Heehee... cannot tell you which location/estate)...



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http://the-sun.on.cc/cnt/finance/201...00436_020.html



本小利大車位喪炒

政府舊年推出額外印花稅措施遏炒，令住宅炒賣成本大增，唔少投資者轉去炒車位同工商物業，劉Sir有個住喺九龍站擎天半島嘅朋友，年頭已經想買番個車位自用，但最近發現車位價格升幅驚人。睇番擎天半島多達20幾宗車位成交係今年買入再轉售，個別車位更喺半年間五度易手，期內做價累積升一倍。

九龍站屋苑中，以擎天半島車位今年升幅最顯著，依家有部分車位做價已突破100萬元。

好似M層一個雙號車位，今年一月初以約55萬元登記易手，之後喺一月中、三月下旬同四月底三度登記轉售，成交價依次近73萬、近86萬同近100萬元，每名業主賺幅約15至32%。

不過，咁都未算犀利，上述個車位喺今年中又再賣出，成交價已經逼近114萬元，即短短半年做價已累升一倍。

凱旋門車位208萬又破頂

依家九龍區最值錢嘅車位集中喺九龍站，早前創下200萬元九龍區最貴車位嘅凱旋門，最近做價再破頂，一個B1樓車位以208.8萬元售出，輕微打破屋苑對上一次紀錄，保持九龍區首名位置。

而有力挑戰九龍區車位紀錄嘅何文田雅利德樺臺，繼○九年有車位以170萬元賣出後，近期有車位以200萬元賣出，足以媲美九龍站水平。
至於港島區大型屋苑之中，一向以西區嘅寶翠園車位做價遙遙領先，但近年有唔少新樓盤落成，令港島區最高車位價出現平分天下的局面。

港島南南灣近期有單號車位以200萬元易手，平咗寶翠園最高車位價紀錄，而該車位原業主持貨約三個月，帳面速賺47萬元，升幅高逾三成。

近期市況未明，嚟緊政府仲會唔會出招再㩒一㩒住宅樓價升勢仍然係未知，而投資車位相對本小、風險低，相信搶手嘅豪宅車位，炒風依然未完。




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Strata-titled units rising in popularity
Business Times, Published September 15, 2011

TAN BOON LEONG explains how high yields, improved designs and other factors have drawn investors to such industrial properties

PROPERTY investors are channelling more of their funds into alternative asset classes, one of which is the industrial sector. Especially for non-traditional industrial property investors, thinning profit margins from residential developments as a result of high prices and government intervention have led to the switch. New industrial projects offering higher gross rental yields at lower capital outlay have thus become a welcome investment option.

Because of strong demand for strata industrial properties, developers have shown keen interest in building industrial properties. They have been competing for industrial sites, putting in strong bids for some of the recent Government Land Sales (GLS) tenders.

For instance, land bids received for three 30-year industrial sites located next to one other along Pioneer Road North leapt by more than 250 per cent over a 19-month period. The first site sold in December 2009 attracted a top bid of $48 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) and the second plot transacted 12 months later fetched $87 psf ppr. A third site was sold in July this year for $176 psf ppr. The aggressive bids demonstrated developers' confidence in the industrial market in Singapore.

Competition for GLS sites has also gotten tougher with more contenders in the fray. Non-traditional industrial developers have jumped onto the bandwagon to take part in industrial land bidding exercises.

The stellar performance of industrial strata-titled property seen after the Lehman crisis in late 2008 therefore begs two questions: What has been the driving force for the strong performance? Do strata-titled industrial properties make good investments?



Understanding industrial properties

Industrial properties in Singapore are under Business 1 (B1) or Business 2 (B2) zoning. Developments classified under B1 use are meant for light and clean trades which are non-polluting. Such developments are usually found within housing estates. Polluting and general trades are kept in industrial developments zoned for B2 uses and they are located in suburban areas.

The tenure for industrial strata-titled developments can be either freehold or leasehold. A majority of strata-titled developments are built on GLS sites, with tenure ranging from 30 to 60 years.

Similar to residential developments, an industrial development can be divided into many units with individual title. These strata-titled industrial properties are either flatted or terrace developments, with the typical unit size ranging from 1,000 sq ft to 2,000 sq ft for the former, and 5,000 sq ft to 30,000 sq ft for the latter.


Drivers behind the strong performance

* Shift in demand from residential properties to industrial properties

The allure of strata-titled industrial properties was greatly enhanced when stricter government measures were implemented to cool the residential property market. For instance, regardless of the number of industrial properties owned, buyers need to pay only a 20 per cent down payment for each property they purchase, provided they are for their own use. This is much lower than the 40 per cent down payment required for residential property purchasers if they have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home purchase.

Also, unlike residential property purchasers, industrial property purchasers are not subjected to a high stamp duty if they decide to dispose of their property within one year from the date of purchase.

* Limited strata stock in other asset classes

Unlike other property types such as office and retail which have limited stock for strata sale, there has been a good line-up of strata-titled industrial properties launched in the market. Some of the recent launches include North Spring Bizhub, CT Hub, 9@Tagore, Oxley Bizhub and T5@Tampines, among others.

* Improved design and specifications

Property purchasers have become more sophisticated and they look for better products and specifications. To cater to purchasers' expectations and to differentiate products from competitors', industrial developers are embarking on the creative route to offer better quality industrial buildings in terms of aesthetics, functionality and specifications.

Industrial strata-titled developments have undergone a great transformation over the last three years. New projects now boast of cutting-edge architectural designs and have amenities such as ramps which allow vehicular access to all levels - some are even designed for 40-foot containers to park right next to the unit. Features not commonly found in older industrial developments such as swimming pools, gymnasiums, landscaped gardens and hotel-like lobbies can be found in newer developments.

* Spill-over demand from office

The industrial property market has continued to benefit from spill-over demand from office users. Qualifying office users in sectors such as software design and information technology, and financial institutions with backend operations, are taking up cheaper industrial premises to seek refuge from high office rents. This has been a strong driving force in raising end-user demand in the market.

* Low interest rates

The current all-time-low SOR (swap offer rate) is highly favourable for genuine buyers. For investors, this translates to either an opportunity to afford larger premises or a lower mortgage payment. For instance, a buyer taking an 80 per cent loan on $500,000 for a 1,500 sq ft unit in North Spring Bizhub would need to make a monthly mortgage payment of $1,400 - based on a 30-year loan with a 1.68 per cent interest per annum. This sum, compared to the latest bid monthly rent of $4,200 for a 1,819 sq ft unit in YS-One (an industrial development next to North Spring Bizhub), has made it more attractive for one to buy a unit than to rent one in the long term.

* Divestment of JTC flatted factories

In July, JTC said that it will be divesting its high-rise ready built factories to the private sector to promote competitiveness and vibrancy in the industrial property market. As a result, existing tenants in these premises will no longer enjoy rental rates which are up to 20 per cent below market rate, especially if the property they are occupying is spun off into a real estate investment trust. Instead of paying a higher rent, some tenants are now finding it more worthwhile to purchase their own premises.

* Good investments

Many investors are attracted to the lower equity needed for industrial properties. The availability of smaller strata-titled industrial units of about 1,000 sq ft to 1,500 sq ft has appealed to a wider range of investors as they are much more affordable compared to residential properties.

For instance, units in a 60-year leasehold industrial property located within a matured industrial location such as Paya Lebar, Ubi and Kallang are currently transacting at about $650 psf to $820 psf. The absolute price for a typical unit is in the range of $650,000 to $1.23 million. Meanwhile, similar units in suburban locations such as Yishun and Woodlands are transacting in the region of about $280 psf to $380 psf. The total price for a typical unit would range from $280,000 to $570,000.

As for buyers who wish to purchase more than one industrial property for their businesses, they are not subject to a higher down payment policy.

The yield generated by industrial leasehold properties is also more attractive than that for other asset classes. Currently, the average yield for 30-year or 60-year leasehold industrial properties ranges from 5 per cent for those located in matured industrial estates to 9 per cent for those in suburban areas.


Downsides

Just as for any type of investment, one should have a good understanding of the product and the market, and should be aware of the downsides before diving in. Some pointers to note when buying an industrial property:

* Unlike buying a residential property, an industrial property buyer has to factor in a 7 per cent Goods and Services Tax on the purchase price. This is because sellers are usually developers which are GST-registered companies.

* Similar to buying commercial properties, the use of CPF money is not allowed for the purchase of industrial properties.

* For owner-occupiers, the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit is up to 80 per cent of the purchase price. For investors, the LTV is much lower at 60 to 70 per cent.

* When calculating the projected yield, one should consider the possibility of an increase in interest rates in the near future. Initial interest rates are subject to a first-two-year lock-in period.

* Strata-titled industrial properties with a 30-year tenure might be more difficult to dispose of in the resale market, as compared to those with a 60-year tenure.


Conclusion

Current uncertainties in the local stock market and expected higher inflation would have minimum impact on buying sentiment as property investment is generally viewed as a safer investment alternative and also as a hedge against inflation.

The industrial market is expected to see continued interest from investors, given that the fundamentals are generally healthy and improving. This asset class would also continue to benefit from funds diverted from the residential sector, which is facing increasing risks of a supply glut and government intervention.

Moreover, given that interest rates are expected to stay low for another two years coupled with rising inflation, industrial properties would greatly appeal to genuine investors, as it offers the highest yield compared to other property types.

However, the intense competition among developers for GLS industrial sites would translate to a higher break-even cost and units in new developments are likely to be priced higher. Moreover, new amenities would also contribute to higher costs of developing these new developments.

Sellers of existing or older industrial properties, especially those situated in the same vicinity as some of the new developments, would then raise their asking prices. The industrial market would likely undergo another round of price increment, but it would be limited by economic issues such as the US debt crisis, eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the tightening of China's monetary policy.

The outlook for the industrial property market is expected to remain stable with prices and rental growth trending at 5 to 10 per cent for the rest of the year.

Given the strong demand drivers in the market and the attractive returns that industrial properties can offer, strata-titled industrial properties are expected to remain a top choice for investors in the next few years.

The writer is director of industrial services at Colliers International

[ikan bilis]

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pa...a01/agba1h.txt

Close to half of HongKong's new launches bought by "foreigner"-buyers...
But... do not know how accurate is the data analysis... Their govt like dare not publish the data....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

新盤上季成交額 內地客首佔逾半
文章日期：2011年10月26日



【明報專訊】雖然今年以來內地持續收緊銀根，但上季內地資金依然撐起香港樓市，尤其一手市場更甚。據中原研究部資料統計顯示，上季一手私樓買賣登記宗數及金額中，內地客分別佔42.1％及51％，兩者均創出有紀錄以來新高。


買一手樓宗數大增佔四成

該數據是於2007年起按季統計，今年次季內地客佔一手買賣宗數比例達31.1％，上季大幅增加11個百分點，達42.1% ，以金額計算更首次突破一手盤銷售的一半。中原研究部聯席董事黃良昇表示，數據反映內地即使收緊銀根，以及本港銀行收緊樓按信貸，仍然無阻內地資金流入香港樓市。



買二手宗數金額同新高

內地客多鍾情一手樓，購入二手物業的比例相對較低，不過上季亦有所增加，佔二手買賣宗數比例約10.1％，金額則佔14.2％，兩者分別按季增加0.9及1.1個百分點。若以整體計算，內地客佔一二手買賣宗數達12.5％，金額則佔22.7％，兩者均創新高，其中金額比例更首度突破兩成。



代理﹕掃貨潮遜去年 氣氛不弱

資料顯示，上季一手買賣登記主要涉及新地奧運站瓏璽、嘉里黃大仙現崇山、長實大圍名城2期盛薈，以及恒地大埔比華利山別墅等，其中內地客佔買家比例最高達四成。據代理表示，雖然內地掃貨熱潮明顯不及去年，但每逢周六及周日，售樓處現場仍可見「一車車」內地掃貨大軍到港。

事實上，個別內地豪客更為香港豪宅創出新紀錄，早前已有市場消息指出，湖北武漢出生、於本港上市的卓爾發展主席兼行政總裁閻志或有關人士，以超過1.5億元購入奧運站瓏璽一個天池屋單位，呎價約4.4萬元，不但創下奧運站分層物業新高呎價紀錄，亦成為九龍分層豪宅的第三高價樓王。



股市波動現蝕讓 最多兩成

不過，隨近月股市波動，有個別內地客因為班資回朝需蝕讓豪宅。除日前快將入伙的上水天巒首錄內地客勁蝕個案後，巿場消息指出，大埔比華利山別墅3期富匯半島，其中一幢位於銀池道的單號屋，面積5062方呎，一名中港兩地經營生意的內地商人，去年10月以一手價4480萬元購入該項物業，今年上半年因為急於套現，曾經以叫價4500萬元放售；其後隨近期股市波動，剛在一周前再減價900萬元，以3600萬元放售，較原買入價低近兩成。



■明報報料熱線[email protected]/ 9181 4676

[Laguna]

溫州失血中國痛

不甘寂寞的溫州！在溫州動車追尾，展示了溫州人在中國到處炒樓，到山西內蒙古煤礦有色金屬那種居奇買賣的投機行為之外，原來也有人性的溫情。而數月來慢慢發哮的溫州高利貸崩盤傳說，也因溫州眼鏡龍頭企業信泰集團老闆，人稱“眼鏡大王”的胡福林的逃跑進入“跑路”高潮，驚動了中央，連總理溫家寶也帶同央行行長周小川等高官，動車事故剛不到三個月再次親臨這個名聞遐邇的浙南小鎮。

兩年多前，曾經有一位僑居巴黎的溫州朋友賣掉餐館，離開留在法國妻子兒女，回到國內辦實業。幾個月後，在電話中，他向我透露了在安徽合肥正在做“民營信貸”的生意，也就是高利貸。我這位朋友是一個典型溫州人的寫照：草莽出身，離開中國的時候一無所有，來到巴黎白手興家。一天工作十六小時的勤勞，省吃省穿，把累積的錢都投到房地產。有義氣，拿自己辛苦賺的錢幫助朋友

- “實業很難做。炒房地產的人很多，”我的朋友正奔向二線城市投資房地產。
- “你也來合肥看看，我們有一班朋友，有個照顧。”
- “我剛開始做一些小額信貸，”聽他的語氣有點迷惑。“一定要好好控制風險。風險挺大的。”

以溫州為模式的高利貸旋風，就在溫家寶面對華爾街金融風暴的四萬億刺激經濟方案的啟動掀開了帷幕。原本就依賴民間信貸，包括“呈會”或“台會”等中國傳統民間的集資方式，在央行貨幣政策一面倒的傾向於完成刺激經濟方案的基建專案融資，對民企已經困難的資金需求更加雪上加霜。另一方面，小企業經濟的不景氣和房地產投機的暴利，更吸引了民間資金的流向。許多實體企業，包括我的朋友在內，也投入房地產的炒作，高利貸的地下錢莊活動。中國央行的極端寬鬆貨幣政策，尤其是超過三個百分點的負利率政策，成了驅逐銀行儲蓄流向民間高利貸的動力。

百分之三十，四十，甚至年利率百分之六七十，世界上沒有一個企業能夠承受起高利貸的利息支出。民間的高利貸風潮的爆破，只不過是一個時間的問題。在溫州，近來相繼有百位的企業老闆因無法償還高利貸而跑路，相信這現象不是局限於溫州。安徽的合肥，內蒙古的鄂爾多斯…，也有傳聞。溫州民間信貸，對中國中小企業的發展做出了巨大的貢獻，以致發展到今天的高利貸，可以說是中國央行貨幣政策的產物，因為央行的貨幣政策，徹底的扭曲了一個自由經濟體制的正常運作，民間地下錢莊高利貸在供求規律而應運而生。很可惜，央行長期的寬鬆貨幣政策和負利率政策，大力推動通貨膨脹和房地產泡沫，把民間資本引向投機倒把，民間信貸利率也因而不斷攀升，引發泡沫的爆破。這是中國今天經濟的一個縮影。溫州出血，疼在中國的整個經濟。

無論是溫州的高利貸危機的影響範圍有多大，是否波及其他地區和城市，中央的介入可能使情況越加糟糕。其實，一切的革命，包括經濟和金融，都有一班前仆後繼的先烈，他們可能成為犧牲的一群，也有可能脫穎而出，不單止為建立新的金融程式作出貢獻，他們自己也建立起他們的金融王朝。我相信根本不需要溫家寶，溫州的民間或更時髦的“影子銀行業”，會因為這次的高利貸風潮而更加壯大，推動中國金融業走向市場，中國的民間金融業得到壯大。自中國改革開放以來，溫州從來都是見不到中央高官達人的三不管山區和港口，但它卻是街知巷聞的“中國猶太人”出生地。你只要給它自由，它就自己展示出它的生機。“喬家大院”細說了清末的晉商銀號，徽商胡雪岩以錢莊生意賓士中華大地，今天的溫州民間錢莊，會不會製造出浙商的金融神話？溫州人的“影子銀行”，祝你在中華大地好運！

source
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.net/colum...ANGTO&id=14979

[Lovelle]

“Alternative asset classes”

1. All types of real estates to the HongKongers (or HongKi) are “fry-able”… as long as good profit potential… they have car park space fried up to S$200-300K…



2. The write up on Business Time (15 Sep) is very comprehensive... => All you need to know about investing in industrial properties... Cool!..

But hor, I do not suggest anybody to cheong industrial properties now,
as...
- All the speculators had been chased over to industrial properties due to low quantum and no SSD. No bubble in residential (control too tight until you cannot breath) but bubble could form in industrial (boh chenghu there)
- Price already too high now, for example now you could get a 10yr old near MRT EC at ~700psf, but the near MRT 60yr new industrial properties at UBI already hitting ~650psf (bare unit).

BTW: I bought 1 small unit industrial space at ~$150K 4-5yrs ago. Market price at >$320K now, rented out at $2.1K (Heehee... cannot tell you which location/estate)...



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://the-sun.on.cc/cnt/finance/201...00436_020.html



本小利大車位喪炒

政府舊年推出額外印花稅措施遏炒，令住宅炒賣成本大增，唔少投資者轉去炒車位同工商物業，劉Sir有個住喺九龍站擎天半島嘅朋友，年頭已經想買番個車位自用，但最近發現車位價格升幅驚人。睇番擎天半島多達20幾宗車位成交係今年買入再轉售，個別車位更喺半年間五度易手，期內做價累積升一倍。

九龍站屋苑中，以擎天半島車位今年升幅最顯著，依家有部分車位做價已突破100萬元。

好似M層一個雙號車位，今年一月初以約55萬元登記易手，之後喺一月中、三月下旬同四月底三度登記轉售，成交價依次近73萬、近86萬同近100萬元，每名業主賺幅約15至32%。

不過，咁都未算犀利，上述個車位喺今年中又再賣出，成交價已經逼近114萬元，即短短半年做價已累升一倍。

凱旋門車位208萬又破頂

依家九龍區最值錢嘅車位集中喺九龍站，早前創下200萬元九龍區最貴車位嘅凱旋門，最近做價再破頂，一個B1樓車位以208.8萬元售出，輕微打破屋苑對上一次紀錄，保持九龍區首名位置。

而有力挑戰九龍區車位紀錄嘅何文田雅利德樺臺，繼○九年有車位以170萬元賣出後，近期有車位以200萬元賣出，足以媲美九龍站水平。
至於港島區大型屋苑之中，一向以西區嘅寶翠園車位做價遙遙領先，但近年有唔少新樓盤落成，令港島區最高車位價出現平分天下的局面。

港島南南灣近期有單號車位以200萬元易手，平咗寶翠園最高車位價紀錄，而該車位原業主持貨約三個月，帳面速賺47萬元，升幅高逾三成。

近期市況未明，嚟緊政府仲會唔會出招再㩒一㩒住宅樓價升勢仍然係未知，而投資車位相對本小、風險低，相信搶手嘅豪宅車位，炒風依然未完。




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Strata-titled units rising in popularity
Business Times, Published September 15, 2011

TAN BOON LEONG explains how high yields, improved designs and other factors have drawn investors to such industrial properties

PROPERTY investors are channelling more of their funds into alternative asset classes, one of which is the industrial sector. Especially for non-traditional industrial property investors, thinning profit margins from residential developments as a result of high prices and government intervention have led to the switch. New industrial projects offering higher gross rental yields at lower capital outlay have thus become a welcome investment option.

Because of strong demand for strata industrial properties, developers have shown keen interest in building industrial properties. They have been competing for industrial sites, putting in strong bids for some of the recent Government Land Sales (GLS) tenders.

For instance, land bids received for three 30-year industrial sites located next to one other along Pioneer Road North leapt by more than 250 per cent over a 19-month period. The first site sold in December 2009 attracted a top bid of $48 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) and the second plot transacted 12 months later fetched $87 psf ppr. A third site was sold in July this year for $176 psf ppr. The aggressive bids demonstrated developers' confidence in the industrial market in Singapore.

Competition for GLS sites has also gotten tougher with more contenders in the fray. Non-traditional industrial developers have jumped onto the bandwagon to take part in industrial land bidding exercises.

The stellar performance of industrial strata-titled property seen after the Lehman crisis in late 2008 therefore begs two questions: What has been the driving force for the strong performance? Do strata-titled industrial properties make good investments?



Understanding industrial properties

Industrial properties in Singapore are under Business 1 (B1) or Business 2 (B2) zoning. Developments classified under B1 use are meant for light and clean trades which are non-polluting. Such developments are usually found within housing estates. Polluting and general trades are kept in industrial developments zoned for B2 uses and they are located in suburban areas.

The tenure for industrial strata-titled developments can be either freehold or leasehold. A majority of strata-titled developments are built on GLS sites, with tenure ranging from 30 to 60 years.

Similar to residential developments, an industrial development can be divided into many units with individual title. These strata-titled industrial properties are either flatted or terrace developments, with the typical unit size ranging from 1,000 sq ft to 2,000 sq ft for the former, and 5,000 sq ft to 30,000 sq ft for the latter.


Drivers behind the strong performance

* Shift in demand from residential properties to industrial properties

The allure of strata-titled industrial properties was greatly enhanced when stricter government measures were implemented to cool the residential property market. For instance, regardless of the number of industrial properties owned, buyers need to pay only a 20 per cent down payment for each property they purchase, provided they are for their own use. This is much lower than the 40 per cent down payment required for residential property purchasers if they have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home purchase.

Also, unlike residential property purchasers, industrial property purchasers are not subjected to a high stamp duty if they decide to dispose of their property within one year from the date of purchase.

* Limited strata stock in other asset classes

Unlike other property types such as office and retail which have limited stock for strata sale, there has been a good line-up of strata-titled industrial properties launched in the market. Some of the recent launches include North Spring Bizhub, CT Hub, 9@Tagore, Oxley Bizhub and T5@Tampines, among others.

* Improved design and specifications

Property purchasers have become more sophisticated and they look for better products and specifications. To cater to purchasers' expectations and to differentiate products from competitors', industrial developers are embarking on the creative route to offer better quality industrial buildings in terms of aesthetics, functionality and specifications.

Industrial strata-titled developments have undergone a great transformation over the last three years. New projects now boast of cutting-edge architectural designs and have amenities such as ramps which allow vehicular access to all levels - some are even designed for 40-foot containers to park right next to the unit. Features not commonly found in older industrial developments such as swimming pools, gymnasiums, landscaped gardens and hotel-like lobbies can be found in newer developments.

* Spill-over demand from office

The industrial property market has continued to benefit from spill-over demand from office users. Qualifying office users in sectors such as software design and information technology, and financial institutions with backend operations, are taking up cheaper industrial premises to seek refuge from high office rents. This has been a strong driving force in raising end-user demand in the market.

* Low interest rates

The current all-time-low SOR (swap offer rate) is highly favourable for genuine buyers. For investors, this translates to either an opportunity to afford larger premises or a lower mortgage payment. For instance, a buyer taking an 80 per cent loan on $500,000 for a 1,500 sq ft unit in North Spring Bizhub would need to make a monthly mortgage payment of $1,400 - based on a 30-year loan with a 1.68 per cent interest per annum. This sum, compared to the latest bid monthly rent of $4,200 for a 1,819 sq ft unit in YS-One (an industrial development next to North Spring Bizhub), has made it more attractive for one to buy a unit than to rent one in the long term.

* Divestment of JTC flatted factories

In July, JTC said that it will be divesting its high-rise ready built factories to the private sector to promote competitiveness and vibrancy in the industrial property market. As a result, existing tenants in these premises will no longer enjoy rental rates which are up to 20 per cent below market rate, especially if the property they are occupying is spun off into a real estate investment trust. Instead of paying a higher rent, some tenants are now finding it more worthwhile to purchase their own premises.

* Good investments

Many investors are attracted to the lower equity needed for industrial properties. The availability of smaller strata-titled industrial units of about 1,000 sq ft to 1,500 sq ft has appealed to a wider range of investors as they are much more affordable compared to residential properties.

For instance, units in a 60-year leasehold industrial property located within a matured industrial location such as Paya Lebar, Ubi and Kallang are currently transacting at about $650 psf to $820 psf. The absolute price for a typical unit is in the range of $650,000 to $1.23 million. Meanwhile, similar units in suburban locations such as Yishun and Woodlands are transacting in the region of about $280 psf to $380 psf. The total price for a typical unit would range from $280,000 to $570,000.

As for buyers who wish to purchase more than one industrial property for their businesses, they are not subject to a higher down payment policy.

The yield generated by industrial leasehold properties is also more attractive than that for other asset classes. Currently, the average yield for 30-year or 60-year leasehold industrial properties ranges from 5 per cent for those located in matured industrial estates to 9 per cent for those in suburban areas.


Downsides

Just as for any type of investment, one should have a good understanding of the product and the market, and should be aware of the downsides before diving in. Some pointers to note when buying an industrial property:

* Unlike buying a residential property, an industrial property buyer has to factor in a 7 per cent Goods and Services Tax on the purchase price. This is because sellers are usually developers which are GST-registered companies.

* Similar to buying commercial properties, the use of CPF money is not allowed for the purchase of industrial properties.

* For owner-occupiers, the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit is up to 80 per cent of the purchase price. For investors, the LTV is much lower at 60 to 70 per cent.

* When calculating the projected yield, one should consider the possibility of an increase in interest rates in the near future. Initial interest rates are subject to a first-two-year lock-in period.

* Strata-titled industrial properties with a 30-year tenure might be more difficult to dispose of in the resale market, as compared to those with a 60-year tenure.


Conclusion

Current uncertainties in the local stock market and expected higher inflation would have minimum impact on buying sentiment as property investment is generally viewed as a safer investment alternative and also as a hedge against inflation.

The industrial market is expected to see continued interest from investors, given that the fundamentals are generally healthy and improving. This asset class would also continue to benefit from funds diverted from the residential sector, which is facing increasing risks of a supply glut and government intervention.

Moreover, given that interest rates are expected to stay low for another two years coupled with rising inflation, industrial properties would greatly appeal to genuine investors, as it offers the highest yield compared to other property types.

However, the intense competition among developers for GLS industrial sites would translate to a higher break-even cost and units in new developments are likely to be priced higher. Moreover, new amenities would also contribute to higher costs of developing these new developments.

Sellers of existing or older industrial properties, especially those situated in the same vicinity as some of the new developments, would then raise their asking prices. The industrial market would likely undergo another round of price increment, but it would be limited by economic issues such as the US debt crisis, eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the tightening of China's monetary policy.

The outlook for the industrial property market is expected to remain stable with prices and rental growth trending at 5 to 10 per cent for the rest of the year.

Given the strong demand drivers in the market and the attractive returns that industrial properties can offer, strata-titled industrial properties are expected to remain a top choice for investors in the next few years.

The writer is director of industrial services at Colliers International

i know someone who also owns a few units like that. I think bot >5 yrs ago

[ikan bilis]

note:


this writer is still a real-estate bull hor... his company owns ~HK$20bil in real estate assets...


centaline's index is the most watched real-estate index in hk
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm
the value is 100 during peak of 1997. Now it is also hovering around that value,

total about ~1000+ of negative equity for housing loan happened in last month, out of all hk mortgages. Those cases are mainly due to high leverage of >90% LTV

The is some slight dip of ~5% in property index of HK in past month, i think it is due to:
- index=100 is a psychological level, it reminds people of the 1997 bubble
- anything crossing index>100, people are expecting the HK govt to come out more harsh property cooling measures
- Govt restarted building of subsidized flats. It had stopped since 2003 (the previous 85K subsidized flat was blamed to crashed the hongkong property market)
- The banks are up-ing the spread portion of mortgage loan (i.e., hibor+x%, the x portion or banks' profit is increased)



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請給我一個樓市下跌30%理由

汤文亮 紀惠集團行政總裁
31/10/2011

　　中原指數連跌3週，比最高峰時下跌了3-4點，立即有很多輿論說樓市會調整，我網上的朋友在回應裡亦說，樓市應下調30%，但其他人問他們何以有此理論，但又說不出一個己然，總之是否人云亦云，樓市便會下跌30%。

　　講樓市，不少專家在一年內已經轉軚數次，最近，大家都不其然說，樓市已到達強弩之末，在未來幾年將會下跌50%，既然大家都認定樓市下跌，為什麼又說不出一個理由，這點實在是令人費解。

　　有人說，利息將會颷升，他們的說法沒有錯，利息在不合理的低水平維持了相當耐的時間，但美國經濟仍未復甦，歐洲救市機制已經啟動。若現時歐，美將利息提高，無形中抵銷了一部份救市動力，利息一定要歐，美經濟在真正的復甦出現時，才有機會向上調，現在這個時間似乎仍然是遙遙無期，況且，提出這個論調的專家幾年前已經提出了這個可能性，再提出實在已經是不無新意，希望他們看見有一些實質現象時再提出利息向上這個假設，這樣比較令人信服。

　　雖然最近香港銀行加息，其實亦只不過將低利息提升至一個合理的水平，現在普遍新做按揭實質利息在2.5%，按情理，這仍然是一個低水平，仍然比金管局的壓力測試利率4.5%為少，估計，這個利率將會維持一段相當長的時間，與此同時，回報率普遍有3%以上，相比以往利息長期高於回報已經是好得多。

　　政府將會大量供應土地，樓宇供應數目亦將大幅提高，特首在最後一份施政報告大開綠燈，不但復建居屋，並且廣推土地，令小型住宅單位數目將急劇提升。其實，報告的作用與曹操的望梅止渴差不多，六年才建17,000居屋單位，並且會視乎環境需要而減少，所推的土地最快亦要3-5年才建成，就算新廈落成，地產商亦會視乎需求才決定公開發售的時間表，政府是限制他們建樓的時間，但並沒有限制出售的時間。最後，私人樓宇供應量始終在地產商手中，若市道不佳，他們一定會暫停出售，最主要的原因是香港所有地產商的財政非常穩健，毋需賤賣樓宇套現。

　　人們說我是大好友，其實我並不是，我最擔心會令樓市下跌的原因其實已經出現，負資產個案由3拾多宗大幅飈升3拾多倍，達1,600多宗，雖然相比全盛時期拾多萬宗是不可同日而語，但不要忘記，中原指數只是下跌4點，已經千多宗，若果中原指數回落至89點，亦即是去年11年20日，政府出招時水平，按現時進度，估計負資產個案會上升至2萬宗，大家開始會驚慌，賣盤增多，指數下跌，負資產增加，這是一條連環程式，到那時候，樓市真的是在毫無先兆下調3-4成，這亦不是什麼危言聳聽理論，有話實說而已。

　　不過仍不需要擔心，今次突如其來的負資產者其實都是特權人仕，大多數是在銀行工作的人，95%按揭，就算願意購買保險銀行亦不會批核，既然是特權人仕，銀行亦不會採取行動，負資產變成銀主盤的機會是很少，沒有銀行將銀主盤劈價出售，樓市大跌的可能性變不大，大家亦毋需擔心。

　　其實，真的是有很多理由導致樓市上升，或者下跌，但某些理由又會被另外一些動力抵銷，加加減減，最後亦只會在原地踏步，我真的希望有人給我下一個樓市下跌30%理由。

[phantom_opera]

央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵:

对于房地产调控，李稻葵的观点很坚决：“房地产的调控没有回头路，不可能再回到过去那几年每年10%以上的快速上升阶段。”李稻葵认为，中国经济增长速度再往下降，房地产也不会重新回到过去的形势。他认为，中国经济靠卖地、靠房地产发展的模式已经过去了。

至于货币政策，李稻葵表示：“相信未来五到十年都不会有重大放松，会比较谨慎"

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“今天的市场虽然惨淡，不过十年之后再看2011年，或许你的子女会埋怨你为何当年没能有所作为。”在10月29日举行的 2011汇丰财富论坛上，清华大学金融学教授、央行货币委员会委员李稻葵语出惊人。
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至于欧洲目前面临的债务危机问题，在李稻葵看来，其实不如美国的问题严重：“未来两三年之内，欧洲问题必有答案，因为它拖不起，必须要改革，而现在它已经在赶考了

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此外，他还提出，如果中国的外储不购买欧洲稳定基金（EFSF）债券，那就意味着只能继续购买美国国债，相当于在帮助美国。