Will there be an oversupply in OCR Condos?

[fclim]

I have gathered some data from latest URA and HDB figures to determine if we will run into an oversupply situation in OCR.
It Includes ECs and landed.

Total OCR units (Aug 2011, includes recent launches such as Luxurie, Boathouse, Treasure Trove, EUHabitat etc)
= 31,504

Total unsold (of those that are launched) = 2,993 (11.7% unsold of those launched).
Total unlaunched = 5,978
Total No. of units unlaunched and unsold = 8,971
Estimated no. of units coming on stream next 12 months = 14,400 (includes sold and confirmed sites, URA and HDB)
Total estimated no. of units available next 12 months (including existing unlaunched and unsold ones) = 23,371

Assuming upgraders are mostly HDB 5 roomers and Exec Apt owners.

Total HDB resale transactions (5Rm and Exec) last 4Q of 2010 and 1st 2Q of 2011 = 6,155

Projected HDB resale transactions next 2Q (assuming same rate as 1st 2Q 2011) = 4,000
Total = 10,155

So, we have a pool of upgraders who will form roughly 50% of the OCR supply available next 12 months. This is potential demand,

although not all will buy pte condos.
Combined with other private ppty owners, foreigners and investors, we might see a healthy take up rate in the next 12 months.
Current take up rate is an astonishing 88% of those launched units, notwithstanding the US debt and euro crises.

Much will depend on whether the government will roll out more GLS.

The current 4year SSD means that flippers are restrained from adding to the supply pool, for the time being.

The 25,000 BTO flats might take away some of the demand, but developers could also calibrate the supply,

given the current low holding costs and healthy take up rate.
Excluding those fully sold projects (which might skew the data), the remaining projects have sold on average, 70% of the total units in the project, which means
most of the developers have already broken even.
A couple of poorer performing ones (sizeable non-landed) include Foresque and My Manhattan (both 38% sold against total units), but still,
the take up rate is 88% and 71% sold based on launched units respectively.
Only the developers of these two projects know why just about 50% of the total units are launched thus far.

Barring any severe prolonged recession, prices should still hold firm in the next 12 months due to a healthy demand and low interest rate environment. Beyond that will be hard to tell. But, if you are amongst the 6,000 (5 rm and execs) who have sold off your HDB flat recently, would you be prepared to wait 3 to 4 years for the price to fall and then go in and buy? If it is a new project, you may have to wait a further 3 years for TOP.

[gn108]

Brilliant. Thank you.
Anyone has something for the prime CCR districts?

I have gathered some data from latest URA and HDB figures to determine if we will run into an oversupply situation in OCR.

It Includes ECs and landed.

Total OCR units (Aug 2011, includes recent launches such as Luxurie, Boathouse, Treasure Trove, EUHabitat etc)
= 31,504

Total unsold (of those that are launched) = 2,993 (11.7% unsold of those launched).
Total unlaunched = 5,978
Total No. of units unlaunched and unsold = 8,971
Estimated no. of units coming on stream next 12 months = 14,400 (includes sold and confirmed sites, URA and HDB)
Total estimated no. of units available next 12 months (including existing unlaunched and unsold ones) = 23,371

Assuming upgraders are mostly HDB 5 roomers and Exec Apt owners.

Total HDB resale transactions (5Rm and Exec) last 4Q of 2010 and 1st 2Q of 2011 = 6,155

Projected HDB resale transactions next 2Q (assuming same rate as 1st 2Q 2011) = 4,000
Total = 10,155

So, we have a pool of upgraders who will form roughly 50% of the OCR supply available next 12 months. This is potential demand,

although not all will buy pte condos.
Combined with other private ppty owners, foreigners and investors, we might see a healthy take up rate in the next 12 months.
Current take up rate is an astonishing 88% of those launched units, notwithstanding the US debt and euro crises.

Much will depend on whether the government will roll out more GLS.

The current 4year SSD means that flippers are restrained from adding to the supply pool, for the time being.

The 25,000 BTO flats might take away some of the demand, but developers could also calibrate the supply,

given the current low holding costs and healthy take up rate.
Excluding those fully sold projects (which might skew the data), the remaining projects have sold on average, 70% of the total units in the project, which means
most of the developers have already broken even.
A couple of poorer performing ones (sizeable non-landed) include Foresque and My Manhattan (both 38% sold against total units), but still,
the take up rate is 88% and 71% sold based on launched units respectively.
Only the developers of these two projects know why just about 50% of the total units are launched thus far.

Barring any severe prolonged recession, prices should still hold firm in the next 12 months due to a healthy demand and low interest rate environment. Beyond that will be hard to tell. But, if you are amongst the 6,000 (5 rm and execs) who have sold off your HDB flat recently, would you be prepared to wait 3 to 4 years for the price to fall and then go in and buy? If it is a new project, you may have to wait a further 3 years for TOP.

[thomastansb]

To me, OCR, RCR or CCR are the same. If it drops, all drop. If go up, all up. Pretty in line with each other. Of course +- a bit for certain projects.

[fclim]

Brilliant. Thank you.
Anyone has something for the prime CCR districts?

CCR and RCR appear to be doing not too badly too.

CCR:
Total Units = 18,491
Total launched = 13,279
Total sold = 11,950 (65% against total units, 90% against launched).

RCR:
Total Units = 17,361
Total launched = 15,430
Total sold = 13,845 (80% against total units, 90% against launched).

The total units includes those recently or not yet launched projects (eg where data is still not available and reflected as zero sold. Thus, the percentages could be higher.

A couple of poor performing ones include D'leedon(CCR), Eleven@Holland (CCR), Nottinghill Suites (RCR) and The Cape (RCR).

The current massive GLS is confined largely to OCR. So, the supply side for CCR and RCR is limited. When the well-heeled investors return, it might cause a spike in CCR prices since it is not possible to suddenly create the supply to meet the immediate demand.

[fclim]

To me, OCR, RCR or CCR are the same. If it drops, all drop. If go up, all up. Pretty in line with each other. Of course +- a bit for certain projects.

OCR can only go up so much due to affordability. But, for CCR, the sky is the limit or maybe as far as the eyes can see into the ocean. People are prepared to pay $19M for an apartment. Try to beat that. Btw, I am an OCR guy. No Vit M for CCR.

[ysyap]

This is Singapore. Over the last few years, the housing sector has shown resiliance that frightens durian grabbers waiting impatiently by the sides and simply attracts more and more investors. This is a place where an intricate self-sustaining ecosystem is evolving. External factors like the recent world economic crises at the very best shook the habitat a little and scares away some intruders but that system still survives and restores normalcy in double quick time. Strangest housing phenomenon ever witnessed over the past decade or so! Today, numbers are picking up again like nothing ever happened!

[DaytonaSS]

OCR can only go up so much due to affordability. But, for CCR, the sky is the limit or maybe as far as the eyes can see into the ocean. People are prepared to pay $19M for an apartment. Try to beat that. Btw, I am an OCR guy. No Vit M for CCR.

can buy 19 OCR apartments lor. Simon is going to be happy after all.

[Montaigne]

This is Singapore. Over the last few years, the housing sector has shown resiliance that frightens durian grabbers waiting impatiently by the sides and simply attracts more and more investors. This is a place where an intricate self-sustaining ecosystem is evolving. External factors like the recent world economic crises at the very best shook the habitat a little and scares away some intruders but that system still survives and restores normalcy in double quick time. Strangest housing phenomenon ever witnessed over the past decade or so! Today, numbers are picking up again like nothing ever happened!

Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.

[ysyap]

Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.

Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired!

[hyenergix]

Just like gold.. SG leh, dun park money here for properties park where? So many deep pockets around. I think price still have room to go up. But not sure for 2013. I m still holding on to cash for one.. still have yet found the one to jump in.

U r looking at Bliss@Kovan? Interest rate is too low. It is driving up inflation n property prices.

[ysyap]

can buy 19 OCR apartments lor. Simon is going to be happy after all.

Yeah man... 19 OCR apartment each rent @ $2.5k also have about $50k monthly rental yield. All splurge on one apartment can hardly gain even $25k monthly rental yield. Anyway, for own stay is a different story lah!

[kingkong1984]

Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired!

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ale-grandeur-8

Valuation Price: S$ 1,200,000 - 10% below valuation
S$ 870.65 psf (built-in)
1,206 sqft / 112.04 sqm (built-in)

This one already 10% correction. U joined the que?

but I dun think the valuation is right...

12 Ang Mo Kio Central 3 #16-19
$839, 1216, $1020k, 27 May 11

[jwong71]

Hope you are not waiting for 2013 to jump in. Just like Jan 2011, everybody talking about the new measures to cool property market and just take a look at what happened since! Its a homerun for the housing prices. No sign of slowing. The recent roller coaster in the DJ and STI did little to dampen the market. The bulk of the slow Aug sales came on the back of the ghost month more than economic scare (I think). 2013 may well not see any price dip. We can trust Singaporeans to plunge in to prevent any dip. Just a 5% correction and investors queue up already. How to see drop? I used to think prices will come down but I have been waiting till neck long long since 2007 and still waiting. That was probably the reason MBT said he gave up and so retired!

i doubt so for a 5% drop, many will dive in.
just like previous cycle, sgporean mentality like to wait and wait til it bottomed.
OR like to chase and chase the prices skyhigh.

[kingkong1984]

i doubt so for a 5% drop, many will dive in.
just like previous cycle, sgporean mentality like to wait and wait til it bottomed.
OR like to chase and chase the prices skyhigh.

excellent point!

when it is falling and falling..

people start waiting and waiting

when it hit bottom...

people duno its the bottom and still kept on waiting waiting

when it rises...

people know it is out of the bottom and try to play catching

catching and catching for choice buys

then u have people running and running

then chasing and chasing..

lastly... dying and dying lah.

if not its harvesting!!!

[linchong84]

The real correction and firesales will come when STI or some europe countries start collapsing.. People got burnt in stock market and begin to divest their properties in a hurry to raise some liquidity..

Not yet..

[hyenergix]

According to my measure against gold price (around USD 1900 now), property prices have indeed dropped compared to a few months ago. But we are likely to be mired in stagflation. It's simply more money floating around looking for AAA assets to buy, not necessary better economy.

[ysyap]

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ale-grandeur-8

Valuation Price: S$ 1,200,000 - 10% below valuation
S$ 870.65 psf (built-in)
1,206 sqft / 112.04 sqm (built-in)

This one already 10% correction. U joined the que?

but I dun think the valuation is right...

12 Ang Mo Kio Central 3 #16-19
$839, 1216, $1020k, 27 May 11

Think you are right to point out that the valuation is questionable! And so the agents strike again. Its always so easy to put a valuation price in their advertisement which is slightly higher than what the banks are currently offering then when an offer comes in, agent will submit request to bank and hope it goes through. Such scenarios occur either when market is very hot and banks are competing like crazy (the current market is not super hot but interest rates are so low that it becomes naturally competitive) or when the market is super cold and banks got no business so will be ready to up valuation (very unlikely coz all valuations in a cold housing market tend to be low to begin with).

[hyenergix]

There is a good chance Singapore could attract more international organisations to set up, due to political and geographic stability, and proximity to the fast growing countries that do not have serious debt problems. Given the massive problems in the West, MM Lee was correct to emphasize on English proficiency as the West shifts their focus to the East. If that happens and the immigration rules are relaxed for these officials and staff, we will not run into over-supply of condos.

http://www.pmo.gov.sg/content/pmosit...oficiency.html

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...151448/1/.html

[Montaigne]

U r looking at Bliss@Kovan? Interest rate is too low. It is driving up inflation n property prices.

Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..

[hyenergix]

Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..

My sense is that one will be hot. Good to register to preview first.

[Geylang OKT]

My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.

And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year.

[hyenergix]

My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.

And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year.

It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.

[ysyap]

My sense is that property prices are on the way down. If you can wait for another few months, you can probably get at least 10% cheaper across the board.

And if the global financial turmoil (especially on the European front) continues unabated, one will be able to cherry pick projects at least 20% cheaper easily, going forward next year.

I believed that at the beginning of the year but have since become cynical.

[kingkong1984]

Yep, I am waiting for the launch price to be out. On top of that I will need to see the response and feedbacks..

http://bliss-at-kovan.com/

Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!

cannot really see the floor plans

and how come got free shark fins?

$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.

[ysyap]

http://bliss-at-kovan.com/

Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!

cannot really see the floor plans

and how come got free shark fins?

$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.

Some of the floor plans can guess your way through... but really lousy uploading!

[DC33_2008]

Double click on the box"1:1" and it will be enlarged. Not bad layout given the floor area for 1 or 2 bedder. Pool view will be quite good. Do take note of the nearby temple. It is about 6-8 minutes walk from the mrt station depending on your pace.

http://bliss-at-kovan.com/

Developer did a wonderful joke and making u blur!

cannot really see the floor plans

and how come got free shark fins?

$3 a bowl and $30 a bowl is the real difference.

[ikan bilis]

heya... guys... some property agents had uploaded all e-brochure on website lah... about all new projects there....

http://www.propertylaunch.sg/Singapo...LISS-Kovan.php
http://www.propertylaunch.sg/

[jwong71]

It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.

wah 50%. alot of forumers sure whack a dozen?? or min a few units at a go

[ysyap]

It would b nice if price corrected by 50%. Imagine a landed property tt used to b $2mil being priced at $1mil.

Once it hit 10% or 15% correction, seasoned investors will rush in already. Prices will not fall further!

[kane]

To story the oversupply of OCR, ask those central banks to stop printing fiat currency. Cheap money applies to both buyers as well as developers.