The property crash that will never come:

[devilplate]

Ok... hahaha you've got a point.

Btw, the average inflation rate since 1962 is 2.73%, sorry I don't know how far back to go would make a good comparison. I just think that paying an escalating price to "hedge" the inflation of current already inflated prices may not be a good idea. Just my 1cent

I noe wat u mean too

Ok we all noe caspian and double bay was launched at the previous trough at a px of about 650psf. If u believe nxt trough will be higher, den expect both projects to drop to 750-800psf during nxt big crash? Isit realistic?

I am actually hoping or waiting to see caspian/dbr hit 1100psf.....den from there crash by 30% to 770psf

[kane]

I noe wat u mean too

Ok we all noe caspian and double bay was launched at the previous trough at a px of about 650psf. If u believe nxt trough will be higher, den expect both projects to drop to 750-800psf during nxt big crash? Isit realistic?

I am actually hoping or waiting to see caspian/dbr hit 1100psf.....den from there crash by 30% to 770psf

That would be a fair assessment.

[thomastansb]

Rental market move in tandem. If prime rental collapse, sub urban rental will be shit.

I am waiting for some major shake up in the banking industry. once european banks starts to pull funds out of Asia and Singapore, there will be major retrenchment...prime rental market will collapse, so will price.

[amk]

How about measuring property prices relative value against a meal in a food court in the last 10 years?

Just by memory, from 2001 to 2011 pty prices jump between 200 to 300%. a meal in food court jumps < 200%. Pty prices definitely rise higher than inflation.

[yjcai]

With a 2 mill population assuming rosy liquidity in 1997. Bishan was 1100 psf back then. But have we bust the peak yet? NO. Now liquidity is the key with cheap money. I dare to say this bubble will not burst until we see 2000 psf bishan. now too early. But again nobody got crystal ball to predict the crash with correction along the way.

[mygeemeel]

I noe wat u mean too

Ok we all noe caspian and double bay was launched at the previous trough at a px of about 650psf. If u believe nxt trough will be higher, den expect both projects to drop to 750-800psf during nxt big crash? Isit realistic?

I am actually hoping or waiting to see caspian/dbr hit 1100psf.....den from there crash by 30% to 770psf

I sold my caspian with good price and i won't be keen on it even if it falls 30%. There will be so many better ones that will also fall 30% that I can choose from.

[Jadey]

How about measuring property prices relative value against a meal in a food court in the last 10 years?

Try measuring its value to the weight in gold

[Jadey]

Rental market move in tandem. If prime rental collapse, sub urban rental will be shit.

rental yield for sub urban are generally higher than those in prime district, so how could sub urban rental market be worst of than prime district?

[kane]

Try measuring its value to the weight in gold

i choose food because that was the most basic, but if we take gold, gold is up about 4x!

[Worsty]

rental yield for sub urban are generally higher than those in prime district, so how could sub urban rental market be worst of than prime district?

He probably meant absolute rental amount and not yield.

[Worsty]

i choose food because that was the most basic, but if we take gold, gold is up about 4x!

2001...yr when ipod first came out.. I think aapl at least 30x now

[sh]

He probably meant absolute rental amount and not yield.

in the last, last recession (asian currency crisis). prime location can get crap rental. crap location got no rental.

Empty for months.... that's why I'm sticking to prime.....

[howgozit]

I noe wat u mean too

Ok we all noe caspian and double bay was launched at the previous trough at a px of about 650psf. If u believe nxt trough will be higher, den expect both projects to drop to 750-800psf during nxt big crash? Isit realistic?

I am actually hoping or waiting to see caspian/dbr hit 1100psf.....den from there crash by 30% to 770psf

Double Bay hitting $1100psf is highly possible if My Manhattan continues hovering at the ridiculous psf $1200, but Aug figures for DBR show a trending downwards to below $900psf. You may not need a big crash to see prices reaching 770psf.

[ysyap]

Double Bay hitting $1100psf is highly possible if My Manhattan continues hovering at the ridiculous psf $1200, but Aug figures for DBR show a trending downwards to below $900psf. You may not need a big crash to see prices reaching 770psf.

Any other districts seeing weakening home prices? Is the fear of recession finally getting to the housing market?

[devilplate]

I sold my caspian with good price and i won't be keen on it even if it falls 30%. There will be so many better ones that will also fall 30% that I can choose from.

I m not soliciting anyone to buy or sell caspian la

Its rather a guide to gauge market peak

[devilplate]

Double Bay hitting $1100psf is highly possible if My Manhattan continues hovering at the ridiculous psf $1200, but Aug figures for DBR show a trending downwards to below $900psf. You may not need a big crash to see prices reaching 770psf.

Which also means stay status quo will be the best strategy den

To sell at 900psf and hoping to buy back at 770psf?

So now the situation is quite clear tat existing owners shd hold on to ppty especially those gd gems....

[howgozit]

Any other districts seeing weakening home prices? Is the fear of recession finally getting to the housing market?

The problem is that the volume is low(only 3 at average $881psf), so it may not positively indicate weakness. But from the agents that I have been speaking with, things are really slow. Developers on the other hand are inching up with optimism. Dunno who to believe.

Anybody seeing other signs?

[kane]

The problem is that the volume is low(only 3 at average $881psf), so it may not positively indicate weakness. But from the agents that I have been speaking with, things are really slow. Developers on the other hand are inching up with optimism. Dunno who to believe.

Anybody seeing other signs?

agents working on resale will tell you things are slow. agents working at treasure trove will tell you things are fast there. just highlights the tale of 2 markets.

[phantom_opera]

M3 actually grows more than 11% from July 2010 to July 2011, if you take away the GDP growth, the rest is inflation ... it is unlikely housing price will go down a lot ... it will basically stay flat until inflation caught up again. For housing price to crash, there must be outright deflation in US/Europe.

2010
Jul 392,197.6
Aug 394,064.5
Sep 397,782.4
Oct 405,537.2
Nov 408,439.1
Dec 410,091.4
2011
Jan 413,235.9
Feb 413,366.0
Mar 420,369.0
Apr 429,545.9
May 429,895.4
Jun 430,835.8
Jul P 438,553.0

[phantom_opera]

The golden opportunity for Tummysick/GIC to cut down exposure on Western banks has gone...

BCS - USD9.6, was $40 in 2007
BAC - USD6.9 was $50 in 2007
UBS - USD11.4 was $60 in 2007

If our CPF is invested in them, May God bless Singapore

[chiaberry]

The problem is that the volume is low(only 3 at average $881psf), so it may not positively indicate weakness. But from the agents that I have been speaking with, things are really slow. Developers on the other hand are inching up with optimism. Dunno who to believe.

Anybody seeing other signs?

My agent says everything is slow....resales slow....rentals also slow....only new homes are doing well....

[devilplate]

My agent says everything is slow....resales slow....rentals also slow....only new homes are doing well....

Smart agts will attack EC now....no better time den now

[kane]

M3 actually grows more than 11% from July 2010 to July 2011, if you take away the GDP growth, the rest is inflation ... it is unlikely housing price will go down a lot ... it will basically stay flat until inflation caught up again. For housing price to crash, there must be outright deflation in US/Europe.

2010
Jul 392,197.6
Aug 394,064.5
Sep 397,782.4
Oct 405,537.2
Nov 408,439.1
Dec 410,091.4
2011
Jan 413,235.9
Feb 413,366.0
Mar 420,369.0
Apr 429,545.9
May 429,895.4
Jun 430,835.8
Jul P 438,553.0

interesting stats on M3, where can we access this information?

[howgozit]

interesting stats on M3, where can we access this information?

MAS website

https://secure.mas.gov.sg/MSB-XML/Default.aspx

[howgozit]

deleted...... repeat post

[howgozit]

M3 actually grows more than 11% from July 2010 to July 2011, if you take away the GDP growth, the rest is inflation ... it is unlikely housing price will go down a lot ... it will basically stay flat until inflation caught up again. For housing price to crash, there must be outright deflation in US/Europe.

2010
Jul 392,197.6
Aug 394,064.5
Sep 397,782.4
Oct 405,537.2
Nov 408,439.1
Dec 410,091.4
2011
Jan 413,235.9
Feb 413,366.0
Mar 420,369.0
Apr 429,545.9
May 429,895.4
Jun 430,835.8
Jul P 438,553.0

May I know how you interpret the data wrt property movement?

Just before the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in Jun'97 M3 was 156,338.1 but two and half years later in Dec'99 it was 186,183.7 which is nearly a 20% increment. In the meantime, the PPI in the same period fell through the floor.


1997
Jun156,338.1
Jul157,372.5
Aug157,689.0
Sep157,836.7
Oct157,842.5
Nov158,459.9
Dec160,766.0
1998
Jan161,368.7
Feb163,143.4
Mar164,787.9
Apr164,361.5
May165,620.4
Jun165,513.3
Jul167,936.3
Aug168,170.0
Sep169,505.0
Oct169,961.0
Nov170,000.5
Dec173,581.0
1999
Jan174,018.1
Feb174,689.3
Mar175,955.1
Apr176,779.0
May178,503.5
Jun179,560.0
Jul180,411.5
Aug181,448.9
Sep181,834.6
Oct181,214.9
Nov181,400.0
Dec186,183.7

[azeoprop]

Yes, brother land118.. it will come.

Very simple logic as this: Show you an example:

If you have $1M cash, with an inflation rate of 6%,
1 year later, it will be worth $940,000 in real purchasing power terms.

So, is it not logical to take a little risk/some risks to invest in assets like property and blue-chips ?

At least a year later, the capital rise in asset value could help you hedge the inflation rate.

Of course, now the developers are at their weakest taken into consideration the perceived risks level in the global economic environment. But is it not also the best time to bargain the best price for yourself? I know of one smart buyer managed to bargained a $1000psf mass market condo from a developer for only $800psf just a few days ago.

Good Luck.

神龙股侠。
nil sine labore!

Care to share which development can bargain so much one? 1000psf to 800psf?

Now with only 60% loan allowed for 2nd and beyond properties, can't really leavage as much as 80% loan last time.

[dtrax]

Care to share which development can bargain so much one? 1000psf to 800psf?

Now with only 60% loan allowed for 2nd and beyond properties, can't really leavage as much as 80% loan last time.

Step 1: http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/...Controller.jpf
Load all results

Step 2:
Find those new launch properties that have been in the market for sometime and have quite a number of units to clear

Step 3:
Shortlist a few units of your choice and try your luck by contacting the developers one by one directly, works best with boutique developments

[DC33_2008]

Seems that greece may default and Italy may be saved. Greece may have to leave the Euro zone for the sake of Euros. Stock Market will be volatile and home prices may correct. 5-15%?

[Jadey]

Now gold is $1818. Physical Gold has no dividen but have GST. If US$ drop further. Furthermore

there are many ways to hedge yourself with gold without paying GST.
The reason why people are buying gold is because the market is expecting US$ EUR to fall, not because they expect those currency to remain status quo or go stronger

How much dividend are you getting from your cash at the moment?

Like it or not, gold has been, is still and will continue to be the world currency and it is the only currency which will hedge itself against inflation.