The property crash that will never come:

[Rosy]

I was told correction already started. prices have already fallen by 5-10% in some project. Not sure if from developer or resale though

Who told u? Agt?

Arcadia dropped more den 10% liao

Older 99lh first to drop?

[howgozit]

u sure anot? or i am seeing different stuff

look at 96-97 big crash

09 crash not a gd period to look at bcoz landed px din go up alot in 07.....same goes to ocr px.....09, ocr px din drop much bcoz nvr increase much

I think we are looking at the same data but with different interpretation. The amount of landed homes in the last 20 years has not increased very much. New landed developments are few and generally yield only a few hundred units at each new launch. Most transactions are resale. Bcoz of the quantum required for purchasing a landed, buyers are usually of a certain income category.

Non-landed homes on the other hand through plot ratio revisions have sprouted up like mushrooms through the years. It offers a wide range of prices that people of all income range can buy in and get their feet wet.

If a crash comes, non-landed properties have a wider spectrum of owners are affected. For a 500 unit condo, you only need one desperado seller to give in to a lower psf to start a psf spiral downwards for that development. For sure a crisis will affect the landed owners as well, but the exposure I feel is less and therefore landed prices are less volatile.


Just my thoughts.

[hyenergix]

I guess many brothers here are still clueless. Allow your humble brother here to enlighten you la:

For a property bubble to form, the following conditions must be met:

1) Loan or leveraging factor of property purchase is unattractive. That is, high interest rates which make property unaffordable.

2) No more players coming onto the musical chairs. That is, there is a total shutoff of foreign buyers or incoming native buyers into the property market.

3) Property prices cannot appreciate anymore due to oversupply.

In point 2 above, native supply is limited but foreign supply is unlimited. This is taken into consideration the amount of current supply against the demand in our market.

In point 1 above, this is not happening anytime soon. Usually a bubble is formed during a bull run, not during a bear run.

Oversupply? Look at the ahpunehnehs and Ah tiongs in Paragon now or the Mt. E Medical center now.

Good Luck.

We shd peak next year. Whether e bubble will burst dep on retrenchment of owners or tenants.

[azeoprop]

Most probably not a sudden bust, but more of a stagnation in prices or a slow deflation of prices maybe.

[avo7007]

Most probably not a sudden bust, but more of a stagnation in prices or a slow deflation of prices maybe.

I think there are some early signs that we might be heading for some sort of landing. For example the central region rental is starting to dip, unemployment number is inching up, GDP is revised down, SGD is weakening (funds pulling out)...blah blah blah. But hey, ,most of us got holding power......

[phantom_opera]

Correction will start with CCR, the more atas the worse. Just look at stock performance of CAPL vs UOL vs SL you will know why.

[jwong71]

I think there are some early signs that we might be heading for some sort of landing. For example the central region rental is starting to dip, unemployment number is inching up, GDP is revised down, SGD is weakening (funds pulling out)...blah blah blah. But hey, ,most of us got holding power......

if 80% have holding power, BUT the 20% start dumping cheap to create a spiral downward on prices as well as valuations. how?

*in camp, u just need 1 sabo king to punish the whole platoon.

[phantom_opera]

STI hits bottom of 2.4k and stay there for next 6m - 10% correction
STI hits 2.2k and stay there for next 6m - 15% correction
STI hits 2k or below and stay there for next 6m - 20% correction
Dow Gold ratio goes below 4 - 25% correction
Dow Gold ratio goes below 3 - 30% correction
Dow Gold ratio goes below 2 - 40% correction
Dow Gold ratio hits 1 - 50% correction

[avo7007]

*in camp, u just need 1 sabo king to punish the whole platoon.

Don't say until like that leh. These sabo kings are also the same people who move our property to record level.

[kane]

Let's see whether HK or SG will be the first country to start reversing the cooling measures if the need arises.

[stalingrad]

FTSE is now below 5,000. panic has stricken the world.

[avo7007]

FTSE is now below 5,000. panic has stricken the world.

Dammit! George Soros was right all along.

[phantom_opera]

HSI leads the world into abyss -660, HSCE now -436, Dow futures -120

Shares in Franco-Belgian bank Dexia plunged more than 37 percent in early trade on Tuesday, despite a government pledge to step in if needed amid concerns a collapse or break-up is on the cards.

The French and Belgian governments will "step in if necessary" to bail out Dexia once more, Belgium's finance minister Didier Reynders said early Tuesday, following an emergency board meeting which left open the possibility of it being broken up.

The Franco-Belgian bank, already bailed out when the US mortgage market crashed in late 2008, is in danger of becoming the first major European banking institution to fall since the sovereign debt crisis began last year.

Dexia's shares lost more than 10 percent on Monday on warnings of an imminent credit rating downgrade over fears about its liquidity and wider concerns of exposure to eurozone sovereign debt.

[azeoprop]

omg, this afternoon both hsi and sti plunge like nobody's business...

[stalingrad]

I believe the property crash will come after all.

if not a major crash, it will be a minor one.

[ysyap]

I believe the property crash will come after all.

if not a major crash, it will be a minor one.

Waiting and waiting for eternity. Singapore stocks reached 2 year low today... Time is near le!

[ahkongkid]

no worries.. based on agents and alot of ppl still vested, the property market will never fall since Spore will open the flood gates for immigrants and all the world over will flock to Spore the safe haven.

[phantom_opera]

For people who invested monthly on investment-linked insurance or endowment policy and hope for good return for 20y, it may be a total disaster if this continues.

[Jonathan0503]

Correction will start with CCR, the more atas the worse. Just look at stock performance of CAPL vs UOL vs SL you will know why.

Will those buying CCR have more holding power or those buying OCR?

That will determine which will correct earlier right?

[phantom_opera]

Will those buying CCR have more holding power or those buying OCR?

That will determine which will correct earlier right?

SC Global, pure CCR play:



Sim Lian, pure OCR play:



So market expects CCR to correct or OCR?

[devilplate]

Let's see whether HK or SG will be the first country to start reversing the cooling measures if the need arises.

Sg always follower

[avo7007]

no worries.. based on agents and alot of ppl still vested, the property market will never fall since Spore will open the flood gates for immigrants and all the world over will flock to Spore the safe haven.

Looking at the SGD chart, I don't think so.

[howgozit]

no worries.. based on agents and alot of ppl still vested, the property market will never fall since Spore will open the flood gates for immigrants and all the world over will flock to Spore the safe haven.

In a globalised economy, I think if the rest of the world crashes Singapore will follow too... . I'll take the agents' words with a handful of salt. There may a lot of people vested but they can't control external factors. Singapore was strong during the '97 crisis but still got dragged down.

[azeoprop]

Maybe the 4 year ssd will prevent some firesales from happening?

[yjcai]

Last low higher than previous low. Anyway interest rates are low.

[jwong71]

Maybe the 4 year ssd will prevent some firesales from happening?

e.g: 10,000 units sold till date, 70% bgt earlier (never kena SSD), 30% bgt later (kena SSD).

got the answer? 7000 units can afford to firesales, 3000 units cannot afford

[proud owner]

In a globalised economy, I think if the rest of the world crashes Singapore will follow too... . I'll take the agents' words with a handful of salt. There may a lot of people vested but they can't control external factors. Singapore was strong during the '97 crisis but still got dragged down.

bongo


people seem to ignore the effect of GLOBALISATION

no developed, or developing country has immunity

those who think asia is safe is just plain ...... ....i shant put a word to it

you decide what word is appropriate

[Laguna]

Historically, the property market is behind the equity markets by about six months.
However, this is not the case since post Lehman crash in the equity market. Property market is above all time high but not the equity.

The two markets have seemed to be decoupled.

[ysyap]

Historically, the property market is behind the equity markets by about six months.
However, this is not the case since post Lehman crash in the equity market. Property market is above all time high but not the equity.

The two markets have seemed to be decoupled.

Not decoupled but maybe other supporting factors are holding the housing market better than in the past. Factors such as a shift in world power to the east plus the ailing European economy allows more security in housing investment here. Given time, housing market will definitely reflect the equity markets. Maybe the lag duration has been stretched further? 2012 will be more exciting to watch!

[land118]

Not decoupled but maybe other supporting factors are holding the housing market better than in the past. Factors such as a shift in world power to the east plus the ailing European economy allows more security in housing investment here. Given time, housing market will definitely reflect the equity markets. Maybe the lag duration has been stretched further? 2012 will be more exciting to watch!

When our new President have to approve to dig into our Re$erve, sure it is time...