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Thread: U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, SG Housing to Jump if not for CM5

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    Default U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, SG Housing to Jump if not for CM5

    U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, to Highest in Year

    Builders broke ground in November on more houses than at any time in the past 19 months, led by a surge in multifamily units, signaling the market is stabilizing heading into 2012.
    Starts increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the most since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...lity-sign.html


    Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property

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    Quote Originally Posted by evergreen
    U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, to Highest in Year

    Builders broke ground in November on more houses than at any time in the past 19 months, led by a surge in multifamily units, signaling the market is stabilizing heading into 2012.
    Starts increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the most since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...lity-sign.html


    Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property
    Its about time US housing market pick up... have been in the slum for many years already... its the Euro crisis that is most worrisome, not CM5 which is primarily targetted at investors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by evergreen
    Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property
    How did you connect the dots?

    One market is down in the dumps for several years, and one is at a multi year high. Where is the connection?

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    You guys really believe in numbers from US ... lol

    It is only an excuse for short covering
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.
    A case of liquidity trap. USA banks are flashed with cash but are very reluctant to borrow to potential home owners. This is why home prices is still depress but rental rate is moving up fast in most states. The home mkt need to work its way thru the backlog of foreclosures before prices turn around. In the mean time, rental yield is relatively high in USA.

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    Seriously 2000-2010 marks the downturn of US, 2010-2020 you think US will be better off? Politics they are at its worst ever .... Wall Street are still as greedy as ever ... they are trying to tighten regulation for Wall Street ... gone are the days of fat bonus for investment banking

    In China's long history, very rare a dynasty can last for 300y and maintain prosperity .. US is no exception ... rise and fall of great nations .. only accelerated due to technology / globalization

    Hint: Jim Rogers already packed and left

    Do you know how many Chinese children are using candles to study late at night in the poor Western Provinces ... how many American children have this kind of attitude... time will tell
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.
    might be they have no money to buy or they have to cash out thats why renting market is good. If US is building more as buying improves, then this is clear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    might be they have no money to buy or they have to cash out thats why renting market is good. If US is building more as buying improves, then this is clear.
    If rental rises, they could be broke for an even longer period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Seriously 2000-2010 marks the downturn of US, 2010-2020 you think US will be better off? Politics they are at its worst ever .... Wall Street are still as greedy as ever ... they are trying to tighten regulation for Wall Street ... gone are the days of fat bonus for investment banking

    In China's long history, very rare a dynasty can last for 300y and maintain prosperity .. US is no exception ... rise and fall of great nations .. only accelerated due to technology / globalization

    Hint: Jim Rogers already packed and left

    Do you know how many Chinese children are using candles to study late at night in the poor Western Provinces ... how many American children have this kind of attitude... time will tell
    China has so much money and gold. Their government is not willing to help the poor. Just look at the recent Guangzhou protests.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    If rental rises, they could be broke for an even longer period.


    True, but this group generally without much savings, selling their houses could be the last resort if they are paying high mortgages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    You guys really believe in numbers from US ... lol

    It is only an excuse for short covering
    The "market" still believes it regardless of what I think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by evergreen
    The "market" still believes it regardless of what I think.
    true, let's see market has conviction to break 12,200 resistance anytime soon ... I am pro-market as long as it either cheong or crash
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    true, let's see market has conviction to break 12,200 resistance anytime soon ... I am pro-market as long as it either cheong or crash
    If it suddenly cheongs towards 12,800. There'll be a sudden short squeeze.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    If it suddenly cheongs towards 12,800. There'll be a sudden short squeeze.
    Quite unlikely as many people wait to offload real shares above 12,200 ...

    do you notice that somehow the banking weighting in Dow is getting less and less nowadays, a crash in BAC/C/GS has very little effect on Dow ... so today's Dow of 12,200 very different from 2009 already ... it just means that certain sector of US Economy still doing ok e.g. IBM

    Bill Gross thinks this Santa's rally won't last ... he is not perfect but i think he understands US more than everyone here
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Quite unlikely as many people wait to offload real shares above 12,200 ...

    do you notice that somehow the banking weighting in Dow is getting less and less nowadays, a crash in BAC/C/GS has very little effect on Dow ... so today's Dow of 12,200 very different from 2009 already ... it just means that certain sector of US Economy still doing ok e.g. IBM

    Bill Gross thinks this Santa's rally won't last ... he is not perfect but i think he understands US more than everyone here
    Bank stocks have bombed out. It's difficult for them to drag the index down by much but if they even rally up 50% due to liquidity squeeze, the index could shoot to 12,800 quite easily. Amdist all that, economic fundamentals remain unchanged. That's the enigma that most retail investors struggle to understand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    ...due to liquidity squeeze, the index could shoot to 12,800 quite easily. Amdist all that, economic fundamentals remain unchanged. That's the enigma that most retail investors struggle to understand.
    So have u taken a position to be ready to profit from it ?

    Almost all of my close friends are not doing anything. Th volatility is unprecedented, and fundamentals are almost irrelevant now.

    Actually to be precise, some of us did do a few trades. Selling structured puts at high premium. So I do hope what you said is true

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    Contra some and take profit today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    So have u taken a position to be ready to profit from it ?

    Almost all of my close friends are not doing anything. Th volatility is unprecedented, and fundamentals are almost irrelevant now.

    Actually to be precise, some of us did do a few trades. Selling structured puts at high premium. So I do hope what you said is true
    I didn't do anything. Because this market as good as playing bacaraat, I give it a 50-50 chance of it going up or down by 700 points. I accept it as the rules of the current game and I hate to play 50-50 games. So I'm taking a long break from this market.

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    It's not really 50/50. Watch closely.

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    May be I sold too early.

    European stocks pared gains as the European Central Bank provided more loans to euro-area lenders than economists had predicted. Asian shares and U.S. index futures increased.

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    it is a news-driven market, buy on rumor, sell on facts, apparently yesterday's 300 point rally has nothing to do with positive US housing start, it is more to do with ECB lent out record amount of money at ultra low rate (1%) for 3y for many member banks ... kind of QE0.5 lol

    But Dow futures hit the usual 12,200 resistance and reversed just now:

    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    ORCL poor result is something to do with fundamental .. premarket down 10%
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Now is a good time to pick up a us properties. Of cos not anywhere in us, but go for top cities like NYC, SFO, LA etc

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    ECB first ever 3 year lending operation...

    it's a liquidity russsshhhhh...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    ECB first ever 3 year lending operation...

    it's a liquidity russsshhhhh...
    Santa Claus lending 645B @ 1% to the 500 banks ... on average each one gets 1b lol
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Yea QE 0.5. 500bln not a small size. At least stabilizing banking sector for now.
    I'm just wondering will some day ppl realize EU is actually not that bad... For crying out loud, Italy really to default ? It's totally a victim of "speculative" market force.

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    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    Yea QE 0.5. 500bln not a small size. At least stabilizing banking sector for now.
    I'm just wondering will some day ppl realize EU is actually not that bad... For crying out loud, Italy really to default ? It's totally a victim of "speculative" market force.
    It's all psychological. There will come a t e when market can't gt anymore negative, and decides to turn positive. And when sentiments change, the rally will be fast and furious.

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    shortist might worry on such news, imagining playing monopoly against a player who has unlimited access to the bank's money, how to lose? you end up having a couple of billions more flowing around the market stirring up some inflation somewhere in this world.

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    hur? 500bil for 3yrs ??... this $$ tsunami really got very long wavelength... it will drown you for 3 yrs... take cover first...

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