http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...-next-6-months
Private property prices may slide in next 6 months
by Ong Kah Seng
04:46 AM Dec 09, 2011
The Government's latest round of property market cooling measures - imposing a range of additional buyer's stamp duties on private home purchases - helps most genuine owner-occupier buyers, specifically citizens and permanent residents who may be affected by affordability issues.
More importantly, it gives a clearer direction for the private home market, which had exhibited optimism despite the last round of cooling measures in January and the uncertainty in the external environment. Prices are expected to fall up to 8 per cent in the first half of next year.
Direct impact on foreigners
The most immediate impact of the measures will be a slowdown in foreigner purchases - a natural result of the hefty 10 per cent additional duty. The duty can be considered appropriate as foreigners have had sufficient opportunities to enter the market and have been stepping up purchases of private homes in recent years, with no policies specifically targeted at them.
The measure may also provide some support for the leasing market now that fewer foreigners are expected to buy a private home. There will be some foreigners who will not be put off by the 10 per cent additional duty as Singapore appeals to them as a politically stable and physically safe country. But this group is expected to consist of the really affluent, whose wealth is unscathed by the current economic headwinds from the United States and Europe, and who need a property in a place with excellent fundamentals.
Demand for non-residential property to rise
The January measures sparked a move to strata-titled non-residential property as investors sought out alternatives. The new measures will likely encourage investors to continue to sniff out such non-residential units - i.e. office, retail and industrial spaces.
But it must be highlighted that an excessive run-up in the prices of such properties may also prompt the Government to react as the viability of smaller businesses is challenged. Nevertheless, the shift to non-residential property investments in a bid to avoid the private home buyer stamp duty can be viewed as a positive for an investor as he or she will be diversifying his or her entire property portfolio.
Psychological deterrence
Singaporeans and PRs who are genuine owner occupiers, as well as citizens not buying a third or subsequent home, will not have to pay the additional buyer's stamp duty. While the number of locals who do not "stop at two" may not be large in the first place, the new measures mean that what is left in the pool of private property purchasers will now be strictly first and second home buyers.
Although the Singaporeans or PRs who have to pay the additional buyer's stamp duty will pay a lower rate than foreigners, they may still be deterred. Psychologically, the duty creates a disincentive, for such buyers are indeed paying more than their peers, particularly in the case of developer sales where prices are fairly uniform.
Selective property re-pricing
With the new measures, a persistent demand contraction leading to price falls will be more likely, especially amid global economic challenges. Private home prices may fall by up to 8 per cent in the first half of next year but this is still expected to be fairly property-specific and short-lived as there are many opportunistic buyers looking to purchase their dream property.
The desire for the dream property has intensified as society becomes increasingly sophisticated and individuals aspire to a higher quality of life. Also, as first time private home buyers do not have to pay the additional duty, they may stop hesitating on the purchase decision and realise their dream.
Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.
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