Senior
Senior
Ok lah, at least not a major crash of 50% haa haa....A combined 20% drop at the end of 2013 will bring it back to early 2010 pricing, which is good for most people.
Senior
yup but its the waiting period thats killing...Originally Posted by azeoprop
Ok lah, at least not a major crash of 50% haa haa....A combined 20% drop at the end of 2013 will bring it back to early 2010 pricing, which is good for most people.
Office Boy
The person who started this thread should be responsible for updating this at the end of Q1,2,3,4 of 2012.
It was just a few weeks ago that analysts are confidently predicting 30% decrease in 2012~~!!
Now this is 12.5%. We will have to watch and monitor whats the next prediction.
Of course drop will be good for all la! Can buy cheap, but then if u look back, after every CM, people predict market will crash.
As usual, stay calm and cool la!
DKSG
Stay Calm & Cool
Junior
Anal-lists try to predict the future. I am different.。。。。。。。。。。，
I AM THE FUTURE.
2012: MEGA ECONOMIC BOOM
Our Solar Sun and Earth, will start to align themselves into a straight line with *the Center Star of the Galaxy Milky Way- The Galactic Center called Sagittarius & Leo.
Beginning Feb 2012 until Dec 2012, when finally they will be in a Perfect Straight Line summoning the Arrival of the Universal Golden Era which occurs only once in a million years.
Human Knowledge will be elevated many levels up in connection with the Galactic Center.
In early 2012, The US will recover from her recession ( happening now ! )and Europe’s debts problems will find a solution ( happening soon !). It will be the Golden Age in the East leading the West into a full economic recovery.
A Quad-Polar World will start to take form- with US, Europe, Russia and China leading the Globe into a New Era of World’s Peace.
The Main Focus of the New Age will be the Pursue of New Alternative Energy. ( happening in the US now as she unbind herself from the Middle East oil fields and gas slowly )
Dow will touch 15,000 and beyond and so will STI hit more than 4000. World’s stock markets will rally beyond never seen before highs.
Singapore property will continue to be in very high demand. Visitors and tourists to Singapore will rise beyond anybody’s imagination. The tentative figure has been whispered by the Sky People *to be at least 18 million in 2012.
2012: Mega Global Economic Booms in the Making………
神龙股侠。
Junior
The smarter fools try to predict the future using the past.
The stupid fools try to predict the future using the present and past.
I am THE MOST INTELLIGENT AND HANDSOME......I AM THE FUTURE.
Senior
Lol! Handsome man... if you are the future, then you don't exist now... only Arnie in Terminator and Michael J Fox in Back to the Future came to the present from the future...
Senior
In the mean time, tcss lor... anyway its only a prediction... may happen sooner but may also happen later... Oops!yup but its the waiting period thats killing...
Senior
Cos they didn't expect Cm5 to have such a muted response. And hence, they adopt aa less bearish stance.
Newbie
I reckon no need to wait so long. I went to view a resale D10 project last weekend, asking price is already 10% lower than URA Dec 2011 price. Seller's agent even actively hint to me to try offering at 13% below Dec 2011 price, telling me very motivated seller, seller has left country already, don't want to hold it. And this unit is a quieter, more pleasant unit than the other unit.Ok lah, at least not a major crash of 50% haa haa....A combined 20% drop at the end of 2013 will bring it back to early 2010 pricing, which is good for most people.
Junior
I really dont agree that prime luxury will drop more than others...In the last 3 years OCr properties went up so much, so if CCR properties drop the most so there is no gap between a Sengkang condo and an Holland road condo? Is that even possible????Holland road condo only 1500+ to 1800+ psf.... if drop 20% then become 1300 psf to 1500 psf? then who wants to stay in Sengkang?
Newbie
Actually there is a going to TOP D11 LH project whose asking price is the same (PSF) as Bedok Residences
Junior
condo prices for prime areas would go down 20%. those for outlying areas will barely budge.
Global recession is coming....
CCR condos like Aspen Heights at $1450 psf go down 20%. That becomes $1160 psf. Oh my god! Cheaper than Bishan resale private property! Not to mention those Bedok Residences at $1350 psf! Possible or folly?
Junior
The prices of Singapore’s residential property will decline by 12.5 percent this year and a further 8 percent during 2013 according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“We maintain our view of a 2012 inflection point for residential pricing driven by excess supply, demand moderation and slowing economic growth,” noted the report which was published today.
“We forecast prices to fall 12.5 percent in 2012 and 8 percent in 2013 and would avoid exposure to residential developers. Despite recent price declines, we think it is too early to turn positive and would wait for evidence of a physical market correction before re-visiting the sector.”
Commenting on the latest attempts to cool the market which were introduced in early December, the authors of the report said: “While the first rounds of cooling measures did not succeed in bringing prices down, they did slow the pace of price acceleration. We believe the introduction of the additional buyers stamp duty will tip the scale and put a dent on investment demand, particularly from foreigners who account for 20 percent of volumes. We expect the measures to accelerate pricing declines.”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch had previously forecast a 7.5 percent decline of residential property prices during 2012 and 10 percent in 2013. The company is now predicting a combined 20 percent drop during the next two years.
The company is also predicting substantial oversupply in the private market during the next four years.
“We believe the high-end will be impacted more severely from a reduction in foreign participation while mass-market will be hit by affordability concerns and HDB policies. Historic high supply will easily absorb any pent-up demand. During 2012-2015, we expect 60,000 new private homes to be delivered, equating to 15,000 new units per annum (70 percent above the 15-year historic average). Together with HDB supply, we estimate an addition of 150,000 units (+13 percent) to housing stock. Even after we account for estimated pent-up demand of 14,000 units, we see oversupply of up to 25,500 units in the private market by 2015, hence putting pressure on prices.”
Newbie
Bro.. must find out where u buy yr srong coffee from. Must have the same sprit when I go to office.
Junior
NOT i say one hor...
New property fees seen to drive away foreign buyers
Published: 2 hours 36 min ago (11 Jan 2012)
The 10% increase in transaction cost is expected to slow down foreign buying transactions this year.
In a statement, UOB Kay Hian said the jump in property fees will likely act as a “strong deterrent” against foreigners looking to purchase properties.
Foreign buyers, whose proportion has been increasing steadily from 11% in 3Q10 to 19% in 3Q11 accounted for about 21% of overall non-landed transactions (excluding executive condominiums) in 4Q11.
Meanwhile, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimates indicate that private home prices stayed flat at +0.2% qoq in 4Q11 vs +1.3% in the previous quarter.
This is the ninth consecutive quarter of moderation in private residential prices. Overall in 2011, private property prices increased about 6% while public housing prices advanced at a slower pace of 1.7% qoq versus 3.8% in 3Q11.
UOB Kay Hian said that while the flash estimates saw a mere moderation in physical property prices, the final figures due in the last week of January will likely reflect a downturn in property prices.
According to the analyst, its recent show flat visits affirm the trend of falling volumes (about 20-30%) and moderating prices despite hefty discounts offered by developers.
For 2012, it expects transaction volumes to slow by 20-30% and prices to fall by 10-15%.
Global recession is coming....
They so late? I already said that since the measure came out in Dec 2011.
Ok lah, since they not worth buying, have to rent lor! Rental cheong ah! All landlords should just jack up renewal rental by 20%!
NOT i say one hor...
New property fees seen to drive away foreign buyers
Published: 2 hours 36 min ago (11 Jan 2012)
The 10% increase in transaction cost is expected to slow down foreign buying transactions this year.
In a statement, UOB Kay Hian said the jump in property fees will likely act as a “strong deterrent” against foreigners looking to purchase properties.
Foreign buyers, whose proportion has been increasing steadily from 11% in 3Q10 to 19% in 3Q11 accounted for about 21% of overall non-landed transactions (excluding executive condominiums) in 4Q11.
Meanwhile, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimates indicate that private home prices stayed flat at +0.2% qoq in 4Q11 vs +1.3% in the previous quarter.
This is the ninth consecutive quarter of moderation in private residential prices. Overall in 2011, private property prices increased about 6% while public housing prices advanced at a slower pace of 1.7% qoq versus 3.8% in 3Q11.
UOB Kay Hian said that while the flash estimates saw a mere moderation in physical property prices, the final figures due in the last week of January will likely reflect a downturn in property prices.
According to the analyst, its recent show flat visits affirm the trend of falling volumes (about 20-30%) and moderating prices despite hefty discounts offered by developers.
For 2012, it expects transaction volumes to slow by 20-30% and prices to fall by 10-15%.
Junior
not i say one hor again...
Singapore property developers are losing momentum
published on 9 Jan 2012
As residential property prices grew a measly 0.2% in 4Q11.
DMG foresees a drop off in transaction volume with potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude and expects prices in new launches at the lower end of expectations leading to lower overall residential prices from 2Q12.
Here’s more from DMG:
URA released its flash estimates for the 4Q11 residential PPI, which saw a +0.2% QoQ increase in residential property prices. This latest data point follows from a rise of +1.3% in 3Q11, which reflects further moderation of the upward momentum in private residential prices. From a sub-segment perspective, notably the mass segment is showing significant easing in price momentum rising +0.6% in 4Q11 versus +2.1% in 3Q11.
Private residential sales continue to decelerate. URA released its flash estimate for the residential PPI for 4Q11, which saw a +0.2% QoQ increase in residential property prices. This latest data point follows from a rise of +1.3% in 3Q11, which reflects further easing in the upward momentum of private residential prices as the rate of increase in prices continue to moderate for the 9th sequential quarter. Prices in the CCR, RCR and OCR increased by 0.5%, 0% and 0.6% respectively during the quarter, compared to 0.7%, 1.2% and 2.1% respectively in 3Q11.
Mass segment projects to test market demand. Since the flash estimates are compiled based on transactions in the first ten weeks of each quarter, we believe post ABSD policy impact is yet to be reflected in the industry figures. In the near term, we may see potential new launches in the mass segment to test market demand in 1Q12 eg. Hillier by Far East (Hillview, 528 units; TOP 2015) of which according to press reports half of project has been sold after launch post ABSD, Watertown by F&N/Far East/Sekisui (Punggol, 992 units; TOP 2017) and CDL’s The Rainforest EC (CCK, 466 units; TOP 2015).
Expect range-bound performance, NEUTRAL on developers. Moving forward i) we foresee a drop off in transaction volume with potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude ii) while we think there is still buying demand in the mass segment with first time buyers unaffected by the new measures, we expect prices in new launches at the lower end of expectations leading to lower overall residential prices from 2Q12.
While we think potential negatives are likely priced in, a lack of upside catalysts from a potential plateau in property prices and policy overhang suggests a lack of equity investors’ interest is likely to persist and developers’ share price performance likely to be range bound
Junior
cheong also good for me but u sure 20%?They so late? I already said that since the measure came out in Dec 2011.
Ok lah, since they not worth buying, have to rent lor! Rental cheong ah! All landlords should just jack up renewal rental by 20%!
Junior
another pcs of news not i say ..
Property shock: Developer pays 20% less than land bid for similar site last year
Published: 2 hours 52 min ago(11 Jan 2011)
Yes, prices are going down.
OCBC Investment Research said:
A CDL subsidiary, Sunmaster Holdings Pte. Ltd., was part of a consortium that put in the top bid (S$388.1m or S$495 psf) for a 99- year residential GLS site at Mt. Vernon Rd yesterday. This bid was 7.6% above the 2nd bidder in a tender exercise that attracted five bidders.
For this development, we estimate the breakeven ASP at ~S$880 psf. Assuming a 33% effective stake and average selling prices of S$1,050 psf, we expect an accretion of four S-cents to CDL’s RNAV and three Scents to its fair value estimate. Note that transactions over the last year at nearby 8@Woodleigh, a 99-year condominium, are at S$1,100 psf on average.
Hence we believe that the price paid for this site is fairly reasonable, despite uncertainty in the domestic residential space, and expect the share price to have a neutral/slightly positive reaction on this acquisition.
Recall that the consortium had acquired a nearby GLS residential site at Bartley Rd/Lorong How Sun in Mar 11 at a price which was 25% higher (S$621 psf). Though the Mt. Vernon site is further out from the MRT station, the starkly lower top bid and reduced bidder interest (there were eight at the Mar 11 tender) clearly reflects heightened cautiousness among developers, in our view.
Moreover, we think the bid could also have reflected, to an extent, additional strategic value the site holds for the consortium; a stronger bid would prevent otherwise even softer land prices in that vicinity and also provide the flexibility to control the launch schedules of both sites.
Global recession is coming....
Oh my God! CM5 benefits developers because they can pay 20% less for land and yet sell at same price as before!!!
another pcs of news not i say ..
Property shock: Developer pays 20% less than land bid for similar site last year
Published: 2 hours 52 min ago(11 Jan 2011)
Yes, prices are going down.
OCBC Investment Research said:
A CDL subsidiary, Sunmaster Holdings Pte. Ltd., was part of a consortium that put in the top bid (S$388.1m or S$495 psf) for a 99- year residential GLS site at Mt. Vernon Rd yesterday. This bid was 7.6% above the 2nd bidder in a tender exercise that attracted five bidders.
For this development, we estimate the breakeven ASP at ~S$880 psf. Assuming a 33% effective stake and average selling prices of S$1,050 psf, we expect an accretion of four S-cents to CDL’s RNAV and three Scents to its fair value estimate. Note that transactions over the last year at nearby 8@Woodleigh, a 99-year condominium, are at S$1,100 psf on average.
Hence we believe that the price paid for this site is fairly reasonable, despite uncertainty in the domestic residential space, and expect the share price to have a neutral/slightly positive reaction on this acquisition.
Recall that the consortium had acquired a nearby GLS residential site at Bartley Rd/Lorong How Sun in Mar 11 at a price which was 25% higher (S$621 psf). Though the Mt. Vernon site is further out from the MRT station, the starkly lower top bid and reduced bidder interest (there were eight at the Mar 11 tender) clearly reflects heightened cautiousness among developers, in our view.
Moreover, we think the bid could also have reflected, to an extent, additional strategic value the site holds for the consortium; a stronger bid would prevent otherwise even softer land prices in that vicinity and also provide the flexibility to control the launch schedules of both sites.
Newbie
I understood that for 99LH plot, once acquired have to launch and sell within 5 years. How about for FH enbloced plot? Is there a window period to launch and sell?
Junior
Oh my God! CM5 benefits developers because they can pay 20% less for land and yet sell at same price as before!!!
so the potential buyers dont gong gong go and buy high high from the develpers and contribute to their already fat coffer worse of all then trigger the bloody CM6 ..all die together.....sucks
Junior
I can bet you that will never happen!!!!!
I mean honestly.... put your hands to your heart... does that even sound logical????? LV bag same price as Furla / Coach bag?????
Junior
in Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.
any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know.
Junior
For property... all maintenance the same for CCR or OCR properties... so that shouldnt happenin Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.
any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know
Global recession is coming....
CCR good quality ones need less maintenance lah!
Others leak here, leak there, spoil here, spoil there, each lift every 3-4 months spoil 1 time, each time down a few days, if private lift - gone case! Give their residents a chance to do more exercise - climb the staircase!
Junior
It all depends on whether its FH or LH. LH mercedes will be cheaper than FH Kijang... it's a matter of time....in Indonesia, a new mercedes is more expensive than a new kijang.
10 years later, the 10 year old kijang is more expensive than the 10 year mercedes.
why? kijang spare parts is cheaper than the mercedes spare parts.
any connection to LV bag and Coach bag? i dont know
Junior
i never mention anything hah, ...so don't flame me
Residential prices will erode till 2013: BAML
(12 Jan 2012)
Expect a 12.5% decline in 2012 and a subsequent 8% fall in 2013 for Singapore housing.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a bulging inventory coupled with retreating demand will hammer down prices in the next couple of years.
"We maintain our view of a 2012 inflection point for residential pricing driven by excess supply, demand moderation and slowing economic growth. We forecast prices to fall 12.5% in 2012 & 8% in 2013 and would avoid exposure to developers with significant exposure to domestic residential - CIT & WINGT and would prefer developers with stable income from commercial exposure – UOL & OUE," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a new 2012 property outlook report.
For the broader property market, BAML is bearish on Chinese expansions but is bullish that retail spaces and S-REITS in general will weather the storm.
"Singapore developers have aggressively deployed capital into the China, seeking growth beyond their home market. While stocks enjoyed the benefit of the 06/07 China re-rating, they have subsequently been penalized, underperforming peers & showing declining profitability. We expect the China physical market will suffer from a cyclical downturn and would hinder the performance of KPLD & CAPL," said BAML.
"Retail is the most defensive asset class across our coverage. For exposure to resilient domestic malls, strong earnings growth and stable yield, we like FCT & CMT. In contrast, we would avoid retail developer CMA where higher costs from new mall openings is eroding profitability resulting in weak 2012 earnings growth," it added.
"Be selective within the REITs: S-REITs are better positioned to weather a crisis vs GFC given more conservative asset values, stronger balance sheets & lower refinancing risks. Despite attractive yields of 7.5%, we would stick to defensive names with healthy earnings growth," it said further.
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