I'm sexy and I know it
i know while most of us are bearish and cautious, CNY is a time to listen to GOOD stuff.
anyway, for those who think property will drop 50%, well, I still think it is possible, provided a major crisis e.g. SARs/terrorism comes along (CHOY CHOY CHOY 大吉大利！）
"Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the economy is likely to be slower this year, but it is not going to be as bad as the recession during 2008 and 2009."
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...178485/1/.html
Senior
The Real good news is on WED by Bernanke.Originally Posted by Eastboy
Bernanke giving Ang Pow again, this coming Wed 25/01/2012, Huat Ah.
Fed Begins an Effort to Remove All Doubt on What It’s Doing
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/bu...l?ref=business
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, which does not like to surprise financial markets, has worked unusually hard to prepare the public for the changes to its communications policies that it plans to introduce on Wednesday.
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, is focusing on improving Fed communications with the economy out of crisis mode.
While the changes could make it easier for the Fed to move ahead with another round of asset purchases later this year, by helping to explain why the economy needs additional stimulus, officials have indicated that any such plans remain on the back burner, and may stay there so long as the economy continues to recover.
Indeed, the Fed is able to focus on communication in part because it is no longer devoting all of its energies to crisis management. These are improvements that the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, has waited five years to make, reflecting his vision for how the Fed should operate in periods of calm, too.
The centerpiece of the new policies is a plan to publish the predictions of senior Fed officials about the level at which they intend to set short-term interest rates over the next three years — including when they expect to end their three-year-old commitment to keep rates near zero. The Fed also will describe the expectations of those officials for the management of the central bank’s vast investment portfolio.
The first forecast will be published after a two-day meeting, starting on Tuesday, of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets policy for the central bank. The committee also is considering the publication of a statement describing the Fed’s goals for the pace of inflation and level of unemployment, which it has never formalized.
“Our moves toward greater openness in recent years have made our policies more effective and helped the public understand the Fed’s actions better,” John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a recent speech.
Any bolder steps, he said, “will depend on how economic conditions develop.”
This is not the first time the Fed has tried to get past crisis management. And after several false starts in which it overestimated the strength of the recovery, officials have been careful to insist that they still stand ready to do more if necessary.
The economy, after all, is merely muddling along. While economists calculate that fourth-quarter growth was relatively strong, most forecasters expect a much slower pace of growth in the new year. The Fed’s own forecast, which will be updated Wednesday, anticipates growth of up to 2.9 percent. Most other guesses are lower.
Unemployment also remains a deep and prevalent affliction. Almost 24 million Americans could not find full-time work in December; the unemployment rate has ticked downward in part because many people have stopped looking for work.
Senior Fed officials have also sought to focus attention in recent months on the depressed condition of the housing market, arguing that other parts of the government can and should do more to help homeowners and revive sales. Some Fed officials have advocated that the Fed buy large quantities of mortgage-backed securities, which could further reduce interest rates on mortgage loans.
But several Fed officials have said in recent speeches that they are hesitant to support new efforts to improve growth, because they think monetary policy has exhausted most of its power, and because they are worried about inflation.
“Steady even if unspectacular growth accompanied by inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent justifies some reluctance to change, in either direction, the F.O.M.C.’s accommodative policy,” Dennis P. Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a speech this month.
Mr. Lockhart added a standard caveat for Fed officials, that the persistence of high unemployment required the Fed to keep thinking about doing more.
“Now is not a time to lock into a rigid position,” he said.
But Fed officials have made clear that high unemployment is an insufficient cause for additional action, at least as long as inflation remains near 2 percent.
Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in a recent speech that the economy would not create enough jobs to return unemployment to normal levels for “perhaps even four or five years.”
“Sooner, of course, would be better for everyone,” she said. “But I want to be on a path toward full employment that
doesn’t create an inflation problem down the road.”
The communications changes that the Fed plans to announce Wednesday mark the furthest advance in a 20-year-old campaign to increase the transparency of its decision-making as a means to increase the impact of its policies. As recently as the early 1990s, the Fed still did not regularly announce the decisions reached at its policy meetings. Now it plans to start publishing predictions about the outcomes of future meetings to guide investor expectations.
The Fed disclosed its plans this month when it released a description of the committee’s most recent meeting, in December. On Friday it followed up by releasing the templates that will be used to publish the predictions.
The predictions themselves could have a mild effect on markets. The Fed said this summer that it would maintain short-term rates near zero through middle of 2013, at least. Mr. Bernanke has since underscored the words “at least,” and analysts expect the forecast will show that most members of the committee intend to hold rates near zero into 2014.
Pushing back that timetable will tend to reduce interest rates, but the impact is likely to be minor, as asset prices already reflect an expectation that rates will not rise before 2014.
“In policy terms, this is a historic change,” Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “In practical terms, however, the change isn’t going to have any major impact.”
A version of this article appeared in print on January 23, 2012, on page B3 of the New York edition with the headline: Fed Begins an Effort to Remove All Doubt on What It’s Doing.
Newbie
I will hope they said the another way - got crises ,and big crises coming.
2008, even got top ppl predict our GDP will be negative 10%!!!!
but it turn out well after that.
when everyone fear, it time to relax, as they will stand by many thing and don't let crises become real.
when everyone think the same, likely it not going to happend.
if this yr, everyone think won't be as worst as 1998 or 2008, then we got to start to get a bit worry ....
Senior
If only life is that simple.
Senior
He know what is he saying, remember after he came back from G20. 10% ABSD.
Senior
The whole CM5 is simply barking up the wrong tree... projects are still selling like hotcakes... Hillier, Watertown... Next on the plate is Bartley Residence?
Junior
FEO agent called last nite, asking me NOT to go to Watertown showflat as it was too crowded.
Quite a good number sold
Newbie
The way i see it , the more CMs....the more expensive it's become and the more difficult to buy ,The whole CM5 is simply barking up the wrong tree... projects are still selling like hotcakes... Hillier, Watertown... Next on the plate is Bartley Residence?
First few months after CM, still the best time to buy...esp for first timer
As long no major crisis,
After months when people feel numb from the shock of CM, the price will creeping up again ....
Junior
lol, reverse psychology?
Senior
Kovan site garners 11 bids, $1100 psf condo coming your way.
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Kovan+...ming+your+way/
Senior
that's where kovan residences is selling theirs currently.
Newbie
D9 how many resale units sold in Dec?
foreigners gt Money? shld nt b problem wth ABSD 10%
Office Boy
Re-posting some information here since this thread is relevant.The whole CM5 is simply barking up the wrong tree... projects are still selling like hotcakes... Hillier, Watertown... Next on the plate is Bartley Residence?
Just went down to Watertown this after (albeit against what your agent advised). Guess how many units they sold ? more than 520 at 2PM today.
And as I was there, there are churning out OTP at a rate of abt 1 every 10-15 mins!
No prizes for predicting that Jan 2012 you will see more than 1,000 units being sold. Hiller certainly sold more than 350 units till date! Watertown is like to hit 600 units before end of today!
There will be s <super> strong rebound in units sold from the 6xx units in Dec 2011.
So, the beginning of the Water Dragon year is indeed bring cheer to many!
Huat Ah!
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool
Junior
I m sure foreigners got money, the more impt fact is whether they think it make sense to buy now since they deem that the sin gahmen will make sure propery prices cool...
So if they buy now might not have upside...
I am sure if no cooling measures even with 50% cov they will cheong
Junior
one of my tenants terminating his tenancy agreement, found one replacement for me, at 10% higher rental, and no need me to pay the agency fee....
Senior
how did you find the replacement?
Junior
the existing one find for me lor!
Senior
you must pack one CNY hamper for your outgoing tenant for being so nice to you.
Newbie
That's a great news to start the dragon year with! Seems like people have become comfortable with CM6 and are opening their cheque books to buy again. This FEO condo can actually set benchmark prices in punggol right after CM6 which means people are still confident about property market in Singapore. It's difficult not be confident since rental market is very strong and demand is expected to increase (at a slower pace than last few years) as foreigners continue to come here to work.
Personally, I don't think Watertown is a good deal since I have doubts about it's rental viability and buying now at benchmark prices is not for the weak hearted. Two major risks for this project come from a) massive supply pipeline of new HDB and ECs in Punggol and Sengkang area. b) a determined MND minister who will not hesitate to cool the market further which may limit capital gains potential since we are already paying benchmark prices.
I maybe wrong about watertown's prospects but I rather be on the conservative side given the heightened uncertainty in the market.
Senior
Isn't it CM5 only? Anyway, these people who flocked to buy Watertown and probably not affected by the latest CM which primarily targets the investors, just like CM4. Mentioned before that govt is simply barking up the wrong tree...
Newbie
This project has like 800+ units, likewise treasure trove next door and there are so many EC there.. Gonna to be flooded with new housing in a few years time, like pasir ris.
Senior
Seng Kang area is already congested with ECs and PCs...
Office Boy
From my observation there (abt 1 hour), most of the buyers are locals who intend to stay there. They bring along their parents, children, maids ... all getting excited over who will stay in which rooms and what facilities there will be, etc. Definitely majority is owner occupied. So all abt rental, etc, may not be too relevant here.
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool
Newbie
Any1 c otherwise
Hdb upgraders
So rent out their hdb later.
Nt savvy or bother wth analysis. Incorrect pricing
Office Boy
I agree.
But the fact that HDB forms 80% of the country, chances are their abacus will be correct. Government will ALWAYS support HDB prices.
If prices start to dip, they stop producing HDB flats, take back those older ones and limit supply. Whatever it takes, they will prop it up.
I keep asking myself, dont these buyers know that for $1,250 psf, they can get something in say St Michael area ? But I think we cannot assume those who fork out million dollar for their house are stupid. One or two is ok. But are we saying there are 500++ of them ?
Remember, if enough people are wrong, the wrong maybe become right.
Think! Think! Think!
DKSG
Stay Calm and Cool
Senior
Newbie
Interest rates predictions: When will the UK bank rate rise again?
By ANDREW OXLADE
Last updated at 12:53 PM on 19th January 2012
Comments (177)
Share
We wish we could give an exact forecast on the future of the UK base rate, but we can't. We CAN, however, arm you with the right information and views from those in the know so you can make your own call (this round-up is updated every few days).
Essential reading:
Base rate held at 0.5% - and more QE lies ahead
How money markets shifted to predict a rate rise in 2015
BoE warns that worsening euro crisis may push up UK mortgage rates
What next for inflation? The experts who fear a price spiral
Join the debate: What next for rates?
Our forecast for Britain in 2020
Commentary from This is Money Editor Andrew Oxlade:
The MPC voted to 'hold' again in January and a rise looks a long way off - the mainstream predictions for the first increase ranges from 2013 to 2016.
Among the new pundits to wake up to the new reality was the Centre for Economic & Business Research, which has previously been marginally ahead of the curve in predicting low interest rates. On 16 January, it said interest rates would stay on hold until 2016.
The grim new forecasts for the economy in November's mini-Budget made rate rises even less likely. And the worsening state of the eurozone crisis - which will damage the UK economy - has continued since then to push out predictions of the first UK bank rate rise.
There was a particularly sharp move in mid-December as markets appeared to all but give up hope of a rate rise before the middle of the decade. The forecast has since remained fairly static, predicting the first rise in late 2015.
The prospect of low rates for years exists despite inflation remaining painfully high - it hit a peak of 5.2% (11 October) but is slowly easing back, down to 4.2% in the latest figures (17 January). Policymakers are adamant it will fall back further next year, and be under the 2% target by 2013.
The committee has dismissed inflation concerns and is more focused on heading off a double-dip recession. At its October meeting, it opted to restart its quantitative easing programme - an electronic form of money printing.
The vote was 9-0 in in favour of holding rates in December - the fifth month in a row of unanimity. Members had been locked at a 7-2 vote for two months before that and it was 6-3 earlier this year when a rate rise looked a possibility.
View from the Editor
That shift in voting reflects the remarkable and rapid movement in forecasts for rates last summer, with predictions for the first rise, week by week, taking huge strides into the future:
- In March/April, a rise was seen as imminent;
- In June, the forecast was for a hike in July/August 2012;
- By early August, futures markets earmarked early 2013 for the first increase;
- By October, the market priced early 2014 for a rate rise.
- By November, it priced early 2015 for a rate rise.
- By mid-December, it suggested late 2015.
- By mid-January, it suggested February 2016.
Our tweeting on rates: @andrew_oxlade | @predict_rates
Market predictions
So when will the MPC make the first move? Interest rate futures shifted dramatically in 2011. At the extremes, they pointed to an immediate rise in spring, but by the end of the year indicated 2015 for the first increase.
January has started in a similar vein. Markets initially pointed to February 2016 at one point but that has moved back to August 2015 today (19 January).
But these forecasts are wildly volatile - as we've constantly warned - and should be treated with caution.
Important note: Markets, economists and other experts haven't had a great record of making the right calls in recent years: 2010 predictions | 2008 predictions. This is Money has always advocated caution with predictions, including our own! There's no guarantee that those who have made correct calls in the past will make them in the future. [More: Whether to trust predictions].
Interest rates predictions: When will the UK bank rate rise again?
By ANDREW OXLADE
Last updated at 12:53 PM on 19th January 2012
Comments (177)
Share
We wish we could give an exact forecast on the future of the UK base rate, but we can't. We CAN, however, arm you with the right information and views from those in the know so you can make your own call (this round-up is updated every few days).
Essential reading:
Base rate held at 0.5% - and more QE lies ahead
How money markets shifted to predict a rate rise in 2015
BoE warns that worsening euro crisis may push up UK mortgage rates
What next for inflation? The experts who fear a price spiral
Join the debate: What next for rates?
Our forecast for Britain in 2020
Commentary from This is Money Editor Andrew Oxlade:
The MPC voted to 'hold' again in January and a rise looks a long way off - the mainstream predictions for the first increase ranges from 2013 to 2016.
Among the new pundits to wake up to the new reality was the Centre for Economic & Business Research, which has previously been marginally ahead of the curve in predicting low interest rates. On 16 January, it said interest rates would stay on hold until 2016.
The grim new forecasts for the economy in November's mini-Budget made rate rises even less likely. And the worsening state of the eurozone crisis - which will damage the UK economy - has continued since then to push out predictions of the first UK bank rate rise.
There was a particularly sharp move in mid-December as markets appeared to all but give up hope of a rate rise before the middle of the decade. The forecast has since remained fairly static, predicting the first rise in late 2015.
The prospect of low rates for years exists despite inflation remaining painfully high - it hit a peak of 5.2% (11 October) but is slowly easing back, down to 4.2% in the latest figures (17 January). Policymakers are adamant it will fall back further next year, and be under the 2% target by 2013.
The committee has dismissed inflation concerns and is more focused on heading off a double-dip recession. At its October meeting, it opted to restart its quantitative easing programme - an electronic form of money printing.
The vote was 9-0 in in favour of holding rates in December - the fifth month in a row of unanimity. Members had been locked at a 7-2 vote for two months before that and it was 6-3 earlier this year when a rate rise looked a possibility.
View from the Editor
That shift in voting reflects the remarkable and rapid movement in forecasts for rates last summer, with predictions for the first rise, week by week, taking huge strides into the future:
- In March/April, a rise was seen as imminent;
- In June, the forecast was for a hike in July/August 2012;
- By early August, futures markets earmarked early 2013 for the first increase;
- By October, the market priced early 2014 for a rate rise.
- By November, it priced early 2015 for a rate rise.
- By mid-December, it suggested late 2015.
- By mid-January, it suggested February 2016.
Our tweeting on rates: @andrew_oxlade | @predict_rates
Market predictions
So when will the MPC make the first move? Interest rate futures shifted dramatically in 2011. At the extremes, they pointed to an immediate rise in spring, but by the end of the year indicated 2015 for the first increase.
January has started in a similar vein. Markets initially pointed to February 2016 at one point but that has moved back to August 2015 today (19 January).
But these forecasts are wildly volatile - as we've constantly warned - and should be treated with caution.
Important note: Markets, economists and other experts haven't had a great record of making the right calls in recent years: 2010 predictions | 2008 predictions. This is Money has always advocated caution with predictions, including our own! There's no guarantee that those who have made correct calls in the past will make them in the future. [More: Whether to trust predictions].
Enlarge
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/n...#ixzz1kSPkU1Nl
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/n...#ixzz1kSPkU1Nl
Office Boy
Is the article trying to say 2015/2016 ?
I sell Cheese Pie
All the more the sg govt need to introduce more property curbs to dampen the unwarranted high property prices
Newbie
check link
chart shows some predict rate rises as early as 2012
low rates globally 2 spike investments. artificial. inflation up if not pushed down will lead 2 those days blow up...remember
no denial..things hv inflated steeply past4yrs
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