I shall reveal to you the real underlying reason after Valentine's Day....
Junior
I shall reveal to you the real underlying reason after Valentine's Day....
Senior
CNY Valentine's day is next Monday 6 Feb...
Junior
It has something to do with the new Master concept plan 2011/12.Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
i'm Buaya ! Girls BEWARE !!...
hello.... why need to wait until after valentine's Day ??... izit bcos valentine's day you are going to take good care of some taitai and getting some good market tips ??...
Newbie
Global recession is coming....
My guess:
Many people are getting higher paid salaries at younger age! Also, the top 30% earning households are earning much more more than the bottom 70% earning households as the years go by (and still widening more & more), especially after 1997! These people have been holding back from buying since 1997 crash and the dead market from 2000-2006 and from the 2008-2009 crash! After missing so many boats, and finally seeing sun shine for property market, now, all these people can't wait anymore and all cheong out to fuel OCR buying! Previously we only cater and build private private properties for 20% households. Now we have to build to cater for 30% households! And we have not even factored in the white-collared high income foreigners & PRs coming in! You can imagine why all the figures taken in context of historical data on number of private properties etc are all insufficient and outdated? As a rule of thumb, Singapore now is in lack of 200k private properties (including future needs for next 5 years)!
Some people will say it is idiotic to buy OCR at >$1000 psf, but since there is only so many private properties and more people chasing (because more people can afford), that is why OCR now selling easily $1000 - $1500 psf!
If I am them, I buy real hard-core CCR at $2000-2900 psf, sure can cheong to $3000-$3900 psf!
Junior
woahahahahah chiokapeng la, brother ikan. Actually this reason is related to the same motivation behind the purchases of CCR properties during the 1980s.hello.... why need to wait until after valentine's Day ??... izit bcos valentine's day you are going to take good care of some taitai and getting some good market tips ??...
I need to wait until after Valentine's Day to confirm my profiling of the purchasers during the recent sales in OCR.
I could be right.
Junior
yes..it is something similar to your concept...but something else is also behind this motivation. This motivation is universal across all global property buyers, including the angmos....yes indeed......My guess:
Many people are getting higher paid salaries at younger age! Also, the top 30% earning households are earning much more more than the bottom 70% earning households as the years go by (and still widening more & more), especially after 1997! These people have been holding back from buying since 1997 crash and the dead market from 2000-2006 and from the 2008-2009 crash! After missing so many boats, and finally seeing sun shine for property market, now, all these people can't wait anymore and all cheong out to fuel OCR buying! Previously we only cater and build private private properties for 20% households. Now we have to build to cater for 30% households! And we have not even factored in the white-collared high income foreigners & PRs coming in! You can imagine why all the figures taken in context of historical data on number of private properties etc are all insufficient and outdated? As a rule of thumb, Singapore now is in lack of 200k private properties (including future needs for next 5 years)!
Some people will say it is idiotic to buy OCR at >$1000 psf, but since there is only so many private properties and more people chasing (because more people can afford), that is why OCR now selling easily $1000 - $1500 psf!
If I am them, I buy CCR at $2000-2900 psf, sure can cheong to $3000-$3900 psf!
Newbie
These figures and numbers has been floating around. We need a mythbuster; KBW please comment.
Junior
Actually Teddy mght be right....These figures and numbers has been floating around. We need a mythbuster; KBW please comment.
we have about 800,000 household...
if additional 10% buy condo it will be 80,000 new units needed...
Add in 50,000 new immigrants per year - FT, PR, citizens x 5 years = 250,000 / family size of 3.5 = 71,000 units needed...
total units needed 150,000 units over 5 years..... govt will need 30k units per year.... just to satisfy current demand.... plus new houshold formation thru marriage 10k per year.... = 40k per year
Right now they are building 25k HDB and 15k Condo... just nice..... 40k...
BUT!!!!! Gahmen Under build for the last 10 years.... so still there will be a shortage of at least 10k units per year....
My projection is open to debate and debunking...
Newbie
Whoa. Like that Gahmen must release more land, build more BTOs, ECs to ease the shortage. So Gahmen must ramp up to 60K units per year and probably sustain that level till next GE.
Then next GE hot topic will be OVERSUPPLY OF HDBs/EC/CONDO?
Property Newbie
like that property price won't drop at all
Newbie
Like that very sian leh... wait until very very sian liao... where is the 50% crash that basic promised?
Junior
Dont you think so???
I already try to be conservative with all my projections and numbers..
For example, marraiges definitely more than 10k per year....
immigrants during the boom years in 150k per year...
I haver reduced it to 50k per year...
I'm sexy and I know it
isn't low interest rates/ borrowing costs the main motivation globally?
Junior
I think if that was the case the US should be facing a housing boom instead housing gloom.
Junior
the US would have a housing boom if they had as many chinese immigrants as we do. trust me. open the floodgate, and then all home prices will skyrocket, especially those in california. but they don't want so many immigrants, not as many as we do here.
Junior
Whatever the reasons, it's quite clear that interest rates or borrowing costs are not the only motivation for the housing boom in Singapore
Junior
all those factors conspire to create this housing boom, just like in hong kong. if china stalls, then all bets are off.
Newbie
Wow if that's true, our Government screwed up big time in their housing and population policies.
Global recession is coming....
Actually your figure too conservative (my original figure too)! Let me try a more accurate estimation as below:
You see, currently 1.1m properties of which 200k+ are private properties. 10% upgrade to private properties means need additional 110k private properties. Then, over the last 6-8 years, foreigners & PRs increase by 800k(? - if my memory didn't fail me). Assume each household is 3.5 people, that will require additional 228k properties, of which I assume about half will buy private properties, hence demand for private properties from these group = 114k !
Next we count the HDB flats: New PRs & foreigners demand (for rental) = 114k.
Young citizens & PRs get married, that is about 10k per year(?), many temporarily staying with parents waiting for "sky to drop" (i.e. property prices to crash after experiencing 2007 crash and missed the boat) can't wait anymore sooner and later and join the crowd to chase the properties. Here, about 30% will buy private and 70% buy HDB flats, so another 3k per year for private properties and 7k per year for HDB flats.
That means, for next 5 years (even assuming ZERO new foreigners come in), due to existing damand:
- Number of new private properties needed = 110k + 114k + (3k x5) = 239k !!!
- Number of new HDB flats needed = 114k + (7k x5) = 149k !!!
Total number of properties required over next 5 years: 388k !!!
Do you know that currently many newly marriage and those marriage and without kids still squating with their parents? Sooner or later they will need their own house!
Junior
Low interest rate is going to stay for a while and rental looks good currently.
mostly chasing after yield?
Senior
Yes, especially for those who bought HDB cheap cheap from 2001 to 2005. Many have already finished paying for their HDB and could now afford to buy a 2nd home for investment or upgrade to a condo since their HDB effectively double in value.
That time there were alot of excess flats in Sengkang, Punggol, Bukit Panjang and Sembawang lelong lelong.
4room flat around 150k
5room flat around 200k
exec flat around 250k
Deepsea
Why property prices will remain high
Published on Jan 31, 2012
THE report ('Record number of homes to be built, further easing prices'; last Saturday) quoted experts forecasting a steep decline in home prices of up to 15 per cent this year. This was based on a drop in transactions last month and a record supply of 77,089 uncompleted homes at the end of last year, of which 39,184 remained unsold.
And in the public housing market, an overwhelming supply of 25,000 units will be released, on top of last year's batch of 25,000 units, which is unprecedented in recent years.
Despite the large incoming supply and cooling measures, which will put pressure on home prices, an excessive price fall is unlikely because of current strong fundamentals.
What is also vital to consider is the equally huge demand backlog in private and public housing.
Between 1995 and 2010, there was strong population growth amid an undersupply of housing. This led to a dire imbalance, which resulted in robust home transactions and escalating prices in recent years.
Based on official data, the population of citizens and permanent residents expanded by 758,200 in the 1995 to 2010 period. But the increase in available private homes within the same period was only 128,896.
Working on 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,628 households. So, as of December 2010, there was a housing deficit of 87,732 (216,628 minus 128,896).
This strong pent-up demand can easily absorb the 77,089 uncompleted homes in the pipeline until 2015. And this is not taking into account the housing requirements of new immigrants, who may need about 20,000 to 30,000 homes from now until 2015.
Last year, 107,000 foreigners were added to the population. According to some experts, a 1.8 per cent population growth will most likely support home price growth in a favourable environment.
Currently, the property market is well supported by favourable key fundamentals such as low interest rates, low home vacancies, future population growth and the spillover effect from an imbalance in the resale HDB market.
All these factors will contribute to a positive impact on the residential property market in the coming years.
In the absence of a severe global economic recession accompanied by massive job losses, a sharp property price correction is highly unlikely this year.
Wong Toon Tuan
http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/Story/STIStory_761065.html
hi teddy, is this article from u?
don't over build leh, if everyone owns a unit then whose going to rent our ppty?
Deepsea
nice observation, MBT carter buses for buyers to visit those flats. Those units dried up around 2006. 2005~2006 + 5yrs MOP = 2010~2011 = upgraders/investors from SK & Punggol to Watertown. I would like think quite a number of buyers are from these 2 areas.Yes, especially for those who bought HDB cheap cheap from 2001 to 2005. Many have already finished paying for their HDB and could now afford to buy a 2nd home for investment or upgrade to a condo since their HDB effectively double in value.
That time there were alot of excess flats in Sengkang, Punggol, Bukit Panjang and Sembawang lelong lelong.
4room flat around 150k
5room flat around 200k
exec flat around 250k
For those who paid up HDB, forking out 20% for downpayment for 1bed in WT not so difficult.
Senior
People sold and wait for major correction in prices will be disappointed if this is true.Why property prices will remain high
Published on Jan 31, 2012
THE report ('Record number of homes to be built, further easing prices'; last Saturday) quoted experts forecasting a steep decline in home prices of up to 15 per cent this year. This was based on a drop in transactions last month and a record supply of 77,089 uncompleted homes at the end of last year, of which 39,184 remained unsold.
And in the public housing market, an overwhelming supply of 25,000 units will be released, on top of last year's batch of 25,000 units, which is unprecedented in recent years.
Despite the large incoming supply and cooling measures, which will put pressure on home prices, an excessive price fall is unlikely because of current strong fundamentals.
What is also vital to consider is the equally huge demand backlog in private and public housing.
Between 1995 and 2010, there was strong population growth amid an undersupply of housing. This led to a dire imbalance, which resulted in robust home transactions and escalating prices in recent years.
Based on official data, the population of citizens and permanent residents expanded by 758,200 in the 1995 to 2010 period. But the increase in available private homes within the same period was only 128,896.
Working on 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,628 households. So, as of December 2010, there was a housing deficit of 87,732 (216,628 minus 128,896).
This strong pent-up demand can easily absorb the 77,089 uncompleted homes in the pipeline until 2015. And this is not taking into account the housing requirements of new immigrants, who may need about 20,000 to 30,000 homes from now until 2015.
Last year, 107,000 foreigners were added to the population. According to some experts, a 1.8 per cent population growth will most likely support home price growth in a favourable environment.
Currently, the property market is well supported by favourable key fundamentals such as low interest rates, low home vacancies, future population growth and the spillover effect from an imbalance in the resale HDB market.
All these factors will contribute to a positive impact on the residential property market in the coming years.
In the absence of a severe global economic recession accompanied by massive job losses, a sharp property price correction is highly unlikely this year.
Wong Toon Tuan
http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/Story/STIStory_761065.html
hi teddy, is this article from u?
don't over build leh, if everyone owns a unit then whose going to rent our ppty?
Senior
Not sure what the writer wanted... maybe more CMs.Why property prices will remain high
Published on Jan 31, 2012
THE report ('Record number of homes to be built, further easing prices'; last Saturday) quoted experts forecasting a steep decline in home prices of up to 15 per cent this year. This was based on a drop in transactions last month and a record supply of 77,089 uncompleted homes at the end of last year, of which 39,184 remained unsold.
And in the public housing market, an overwhelming supply of 25,000 units will be released, on top of last year's batch of 25,000 units, which is unprecedented in recent years.
Despite the large incoming supply and cooling measures, which will put pressure on home prices, an excessive price fall is unlikely because of current strong fundamentals.
What is also vital to consider is the equally huge demand backlog in private and public housing.
Between 1995 and 2010, there was strong population growth amid an undersupply of housing. This led to a dire imbalance, which resulted in robust home transactions and escalating prices in recent years.
Based on official data, the population of citizens and permanent residents expanded by 758,200 in the 1995 to 2010 period. But the increase in available private homes within the same period was only 128,896.
Working on 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,628 households. So, as of December 2010, there was a housing deficit of 87,732 (216,628 minus 128,896).
This strong pent-up demand can easily absorb the 77,089 uncompleted homes in the pipeline until 2015. And this is not taking into account the housing requirements of new immigrants, who may need about 20,000 to 30,000 homes from now until 2015.
Last year, 107,000 foreigners were added to the population. According to some experts, a 1.8 per cent population growth will most likely support home price growth in a favourable environment.
Currently, the property market is well supported by favourable key fundamentals such as low interest rates, low home vacancies, future population growth and the spillover effect from an imbalance in the resale HDB market.
All these factors will contribute to a positive impact on the residential property market in the coming years.
In the absence of a severe global economic recession accompanied by massive job losses, a sharp property price correction is highly unlikely this year.
Wong Toon Tuan
http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/Story/STIStory_761065.html
hi teddy, is this article from u?
don't over build leh, if everyone owns a unit then whose going to rent our ppty?
Deepsea
This writer just work on the numbers but forgot the price tag on the unsold units. Can find so many high income earners to "easily absorb" as he put it???
39,184 units remained unsold as at 4th Quarter 2011. The unsold units comprised 10,741 units in CCR, 8,350 units in RCR and 20,093 units in OCR
Junior
the writer's article is unambiguous can mean either way ...CMs not enough or dont worry go and buy more...
newspaper like printing this type of article ..say like never say like that...
Junior
The former 'rich' immigrants can afford CCR in the past because rest of world is richer than Singapore. Now Singapore living standard comes close to the global cities, meaning the majority of the 'rich' segment of new immigrants will find RCR and OCR more affordable.My guess:
Many people are getting higher paid salaries at younger age! Also, the top 30% earning households are earning much more more than the bottom 70% earning households as the years go by (and still widening more & more), especially after 1997! These people have been holding back from buying since 1997 crash and the dead market from 2000-2006 and from the 2008-2009 crash! After missing so many boats, and finally seeing sun shine for property market, now, all these people can't wait anymore and all cheong out to fuel OCR buying! Previously we only cater and build private private properties for 20% households. Now we have to build to cater for 30% households! And we have not even factored in the white-collared high income foreigners & PRs coming in! You can imagine why all the figures taken in context of historical data on number of private properties etc are all insufficient and outdated? As a rule of thumb, Singapore now is in lack of 200k private properties (including future needs for next 5 years)!
Some people will say it is idiotic to buy OCR at >$1000 psf, but since there is only so many private properties and more people chasing (because more people can afford), that is why OCR now selling easily $1000 - $1500 psf!
If I am them, I buy real hard-core CCR at $2000-2900 psf, sure can cheong to $3000-$3900 psf!
I think expecting CCR to go to S$3000-$3900 psf is a tall call from here though. I still think demand will slacken for CCR and interests and potential will still be in OCR.
The only way to spur CCR prices is events events events, i.e. global scale events that make SG CCR properties a symbol of prestige and wealth, i.e. Formula One, Casinos, Olympics etc....
Assuming status quo, all the ra ra will be in OCR at least until next round of elections.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote