A New Property Paradigm?

[Eldenfirefly]

I was just reading all the threads about OCR and CCR gap closing. Anyway, here's my take on it.

Are we reaching a new stage of property paradigm? One where the city fringe is moving outwards? Especially with the advert of circle line, there are now certain previously CCR regions which are now less assessible or connected as compared to the new "city fringe" regions connected by the circle line.

Thus, last time Newton, Novena would be considered city fringe. They are CCR, but not quite CBD area. But today, this is being moved to Toa Payoh, Bishan.

What do we define by city fringe anyway? I have a new definition. You can reach Orchard Road within 15 minutes, and CDB within 20 min. Last time, when MRT was not so well connected, cars were the order of the day, and so Novena, Newton would be considered city fringe.

But today, using MRT, then it is the areas which are beyond those, nearer circle line that would be more attractive because of connectivity. Not only can they get to Orchard road in 15 min, they can also go to the east, or to the west directly within 15 to 20 min.

In comparision, those living in Newton, Novena would have to now travel backwards up towards Bishan to benefit from this increased connectivity.

At the same time, hubs have sprung up in residential estates throughout Singapore. Orchard road is now no longer the only place to go for shopping. Toa Payoh HDB hub, Bishan, Tampinies, Bedok, Jurong, they all have shopping hubs where you can buy everything you want.

This doesn't mean prestige addresses aren't important. They are, but if we want prestige, then the hottest place to be in these days is around the Marina Bay area. Or at least the places which are really right in the heart of the city. Novena and Newton suffers from being neither here nor there. They are not truely prestige, location wise, and yet, they are now no longer truely city fringe - once you factor in the MRT circle line connectivity.

The new hubs in further residential centres also create new clusters where pricing of houses may increase. Thus, Tampines and Bedok is an example of such a hub, so is Bishan, Toa Payoh, Serangoon, and in the rest, Jurong. Since they can't build shopping hubs and such amenities near every single MRT station. You to make sure your property is closer to such new "hubs".

Thus, Newton and Novena suffers from this. They are not in themselves a hub. You don't go there to shop, or I don't know how many people go there just to eat. And since Orchard road itself these days is suffering from such competition from the new shopping hubs, being one or two stations way from Orchard road is no longer the draw it once was.

So, are we facing such a new paradigm? Is that why certain OCR prices coninue to narrow the gap while CCR stagnants? Note that I am not saying all OCR will equalise. It shouldn't. That doesn't make sense because ultimately, there is only one CBD area where many go to work in. But the gap could narrow for certain segments of OCR which are linked into the MRT network well, and have developed shopping hubs of their own.

What do you all think?

[mcmlxxvi]

I totally agree. Pls send this article to all Novena and Newton property sellers so we can bargain down 15%... Teeheehee

[dtrax]

I totally agree. Pls send this article to all Novena and Newton property sellers so we can bargain down 15%... Teeheehee

send to ST to post this in their article column I use it to bargain with D11 owners 25% down!

[blackjack21trader]

that is correct, brother ! you are very clever indeed.

[roly8]

very interesting read.

[mcmlxxvi]

I think if we combine to publish all insightful prose written by the bro n sis here into a book can call it "Con. Do. Singapore." liao... Lol

[teddybear]

Another Mr B of Newton/Novena?
Like Mr B of Bukit Timah?

How about some real thing?:
Heard there is plan to build a nuclear plant off the southern islands off Singapore. What will that do to properties in the southern tip, like Marina Bay, Harbour Front? If explode like Japan means ???

I think if we combine to publish all insightful prose written by the bro n sis here into a book can call it "Con. Do. Singapore." liao... Lol

[indomie]

There is a possibility some ocr area are forming into a new ccr. Only in these area the rate of growth will outperform the ccr. Its more to do with the rate of investment the government and private sectors are pouring. For example a run downed orchard road can be a less attractive place to do business than let's say highly invested paya lebar. Knowing which area will be highly invested in the future is a million dollar question. Just follow the money trail.

[samuelk]

There is a possibility some ocr area are forming into a new ccr. Only in these area the rate of growth will outperform the ccr. Its more to do with the rate of investment the government and private sectors are pouring. For example a run downed orchard road can be a less attractive place to do business than let's say highly invested paya lebar. Knowing which area will be highly invested in the future is a million dollar question. Just follow the money trail.

the Ponggol 21 and the Jurong lake area seems to be the upcoming jewel.

anyone here can chime in where else is starting to hot up?

[Laguna]

paya lebar will be interesting as well

[flxcat]

I was just reading all the threads about OCR and CCR gap closing. Anyway, here's my take on it.

Are we reaching a new stage of property paradigm? One where the city fringe is moving outwards? Especially with the advert of circle line, there are now certain previously CCR regions which are now less assessible or connected as compared to the new "city fringe" regions connected by the circle line.

Thus, last time Newton, Novena would be considered city fringe. They are CCR, but not quite CBD area. But today, this is being moved to Toa Payoh, Bishan.

What do we define by city fringe anyway? I have a new definition. You can reach Orchard Road within 15 minutes, and CDB within 20 min. Last time, when MRT was not so well connected, cars were the order of the day, and so Novena, Newton would be considered city fringe.

But today, using MRT, then it is the areas which are beyond those, nearer circle line that would be more attractive because of connectivity. Not only can they get to Orchard road in 15 min, they can also go to the east, or to the west directly within 15 to 20 min.

In comparision, those living in Newton, Novena would have to now travel backwards up towards Bishan to benefit from this increased connectivity.

At the same time, hubs have sprung up in residential estates throughout Singapore. Orchard road is now no longer the only place to go for shopping. Toa Payoh HDB hub, Bishan, Tampinies, Bedok, Jurong, they all have shopping hubs where you can buy everything you want.

This doesn't mean prestige addresses aren't important. They are, but if we want prestige, then the hottest place to be in these days is around the Marina Bay area. Or at least the places which are really right in the heart of the city. Novena and Newton suffers from being neither here nor there. They are not truely prestige, location wise, and yet, they are now no longer truely city fringe - once you factor in the MRT circle line connectivity.

The new hubs in further residential centres also create new clusters where pricing of houses may increase. Thus, Tampines and Bedok is an example of such a hub, so is Bishan, Toa Payoh, Serangoon, and in the rest, Jurong. Since they can't build shopping hubs and such amenities near every single MRT station. You to make sure your property is closer to such new "hubs".

Thus, Newton and Novena suffers from this. They are not in themselves a hub. You don't go there to shop, or I don't know how many people go there just to eat. And since Orchard road itself these days is suffering from such competition from the new shopping hubs, being one or two stations way from Orchard road is no longer the draw it once was.

So, are we facing such a new paradigm? Is that why certain OCR prices coninue to narrow the gap while CCR stagnants? Note that I am not saying all OCR will equalise. It shouldn't. That doesn't make sense because ultimately, there is only one CBD area where many go to work in. But the gap could narrow for certain segments of OCR which are linked into the MRT network well, and have developed shopping hubs of their own.

What do you all think?

Interesting......

So if OCR condo at location you perceive as good and near current or future hub and novena or newton condo asking the same price, which will you choose?

[ikan bilis]

http://news.omy.sg/News/Local%2BNews...00-317071.html


郊区当中白沙家庭最有钱　35％月入逾$9000



欣乐国际房地产咨询公司（SLP）最新出炉的研究报告显示，住在榜鹅的家庭，月入超过9000元的，达到30％，全国平均则为26％。
换言之，有能力提升到私宅或执行共管公寓（EC）的榜鹅居民，比率相当高，在全国所有郊区当中，排名第二。
排名第一的是白沙，共有35％的家庭，月入超过9000元。


榜鹅最多大学毕业生

另外，在教育程度方面，榜鹅居民当中，拥有大学学历的居民，比率是全国最高的，也就是说，他们可能拥有更高的收入，负担私宅的能力也更强。
榜鹅目前有1万8000户人家，超过6万4500个居民。


榜鹅私宅市场 不会消化不良

欣乐国际的研究报告说，政府售地计划下出售的私宅和EC地皮，将为榜鹅注入约5400个单位，但是，来自组屋提升者的需求强劲，因此，榜鹅的私宅市场应该不会“消化不良”。
欣乐国际执行董事麦俊荣说：“快速增长的居民人口是对私宅需求的一个重要因素。榜鹅新镇的人口，从前年的5万9400人，增加至6万4500人，增幅是8.6％，远远超越全国平均的0.47％。”
此外，最可能组织家庭、年龄介于25至34岁的居民，在榜鹅占了19％，高于15％的全国平均数。这19％相等于1万2000个居民。

[Jonathan0503]

In terms of prestige, I don't think marina bay can overtake orchard.

Marina bay is still labelled as a financial center and not a full fledge and established residential enclave.

Furthermore, they are mostly 99lh whereby value is not so sustainable. And most are small units, unlike Orchard where u will really find big luxurious apartments with their own fenced up compound.

[teddybear]

They probably may have 1 extra "present" nearby in southern island in future to ensure their endless supply of electricity: Nuclear Power Plant...........(very green indeed!)

In terms of prestige, I don't think marina bay can overtake orchard.

Marina bay is still labelled as a financial center and not a full fledge and established residential enclave.

Furthermore, they are mostly 99lh whereby value is not so sustainable. And most are small units, unlike Orchard where u will really find big luxurious apartments with their own fenced up compound.

[CCR]

So what should be the gap between properties at OCR hub And CCR properties?if you ask mr stanlingrad he will sayer should be higher than ccr

[dtrax]

So what should be the gap between properties at OCR hub And CCR properties?if you ask mr stanlingrad he will sayer should be higher than ccr

seriously i dun mind Then can hoot more CCR but by then stalingrad might probably have hooted some himself keke

[Eldenfirefly]

I think selected OCR's gap and city fringe CCR will narrow because of what I mentioned in my first post. But not close completely. Like I said in the my post, proximity to CBD area still makes a difference. But gap narrow means maybe CCR may stagnant or not rise as much, while those selected OCR will continue to increase at a faster rate.

There is another factor I think at play here too. The increase in wealth and buying power of many of the middle class due to the increase in prices of HDB.

Everyone aspires to own property in Singapore. Those middle class that already own a HDB. Many now sitting on good profits due to the sharp rise in HDB prices. They can now aspire to upgrade. Yet, CCR is perceived as too out of their budget. So, they aim OCR instead, especially since many may actually already stay there, and are used to it.

And since location is king. Then, within OCR, the best places are obviously those near or around MRT stations, espeically those that are not only well connected MRT wise, but are also the new shopping hubs. (Most of the middle class shop at these rather than in Orchard road anyway).

This causes an increase in demand for OCR condo as well. Thus, the gap narrows... Now, I don't think it will ever completely close. But as I said, it may explain the trend of narrowing which we have been seeing.

What do you guys think?

[singaporecondo99]

If that's case, this would be a good time to buy CCR property.

[Eldenfirefly]

Hmmm, what's the rationale of buying CCR now?

[HP65]

I think selected OCR's gap and city fringe CCR will narrow because of what I mentioned in my first post. But not close completely. Like I said in the my post, proximity to CBD area still makes a difference. But gap narrow means maybe CCR may stagnant or not rise as much, while those selected OCR will continue to increase at a faster rate.

There is another factor I think at play here too. The increase in wealth and buying power of many of the middle class due to the increase in prices of HDB.

Everyone aspires to own property in Singapore. Those middle class that already own a HDB. Many now sitting on good profits due to the sharp rise in HDB prices. They can now aspire to upgrade. Yet, CCR is perceived as too out of their budget. So, they aim OCR instead, especially since many may actually already stay there, and are used to it.

And since location is king. Then, within OCR, the best places are obviously those near or around MRT stations, espeically those that are not only well connected MRT wise, but are also the new shopping hubs. (Most of the middle class shop at these rather than in Orchard road anyway).

This causes an increase in demand for OCR condo as well. Thus, the gap narrows... Now, I don't think it will ever completely close. But as I said, it may explain the trend of narrowing which we have been seeing.

What do you guys think?

The perceived `closing of gap' is really just referring to psf basis. End of the day, high psf is important to developers as it allows them to maintain the same margin (due to higher land prices). BUT to the buyer, quantum is still the relevant factor. High psf is not as important as long as you still have 3 separate rooms BUT in a smaller floor area. As the quantum gets higher up the pyramid, the number of people who can afford will naturally be smaller.

And secondly, the `closing of gap' often times refers to new launch OCR high psf vs resale CCR/ RCR. I am monitoring the condos along the stretch of Bukit Timah that floods all the time, hoping to see if the prices are softening, especially Tessarina. Recently there is a 3 bedder sold at $1,250 psf or $1.65m. Granted this project is prone to flood, but I think this buyer got a rather good deal vs the new launch OCR LH condos.

[HP65]

Hmmm, what's the rationale of buying CCR now?

Or, whats the rationale of buying new OCR despite it being higher PSF than resale CCR like the example mentioned above?

[latour]

Orchard Road started as OCR (or countryside in the early days).

It's hard to believe, but just over a hundred years ago Orchard Road was out in the countryside, hence its name....

http://timlight.mymalaya.com/Singapo...rd%20Road.html

Learn something from history and the city landscape development, enjoy.

[felicia_sg]

Yes that was in 1900s, but then the rest of Singapore was for the uncivilised, infested with pests, wild animals, & don't even got proper roads & such cement buildings!

Orchard Road started as OCR (or countryside in the early days).

It's hard to believe, but just over a hundred years ago Orchard Road was out in the countryside, hence its name....

http://timlight.mymalaya.com/Singapo...rd%20Road.html

Learn something from history and the city landscape development, enjoy.

[devilplate]

just dont buy anything to invest now unless got 20% discount from ave transacted px

20% i aso not so keen.....LOL

[Eldenfirefly]

Yeah, I agree. In general, everything looks expensive to me. So, I wouldn't buy now. But who knows, perhaps even after the correction, certain OCR regions will hold their value better than others due to this "paradigm shift" I am talking about.

Last time, Orchard road was the In place to be in. Even got this term called center point kids.

Nowadays, got Tampines, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Jurong, Serangoon Nex, etc etc, so I think the draw of Orchard road is no longer as compelling. Orchard road is still a place tourists love to go. But its not tourists that buy property here, its Singaporeans...

Be honest, how many of you actually shop at Orchard Road regularly?

[Eldenfirefly]

Just to add, the current property market, especially the new launches smacks of speculation. Avoid if possible. Don't be taken in by the glossy marketing. New launches are going for as much as 30% higher in psf compared to an existing condo which is like maybe 500m or 1 km away. How does that even make sense?

People like new stuff. But they forget that what they buy "new", a few years later, will be come same as everything else. Because of the bullishness on the property market, "New" is being sold at a premium. Don't be taken in.

When I bought my condo in Bishan. It was at 700 plus psf. At that time, the resale condos in Bishan also all around the same psf, or maybe even a bit higher. So, its fine. These days, new launches are nowhere priced near to nearby condos. They are all being priced high high. Beware. I waiting to see if Sky Habitat will set new records when it launch. But I will be happy to stay in my Clover in the meantime.

The higher Sky Habitat launches, the higher the buffer it will create for Clover, which is just 2 bus stops away. So, how much will you pay for being 2 bus stops nearer to MRT, 400 psf? 600 psf? lol

[roly8]

average male like me can't afford without a 30yr loan..
dunno want find gf or not

[devilplate]

Just to add, the current property market, especially the new launches smacks of speculation. Avoid if possible. Don't be taken in by the glossy marketing. New launches are going for as much as 30% higher in psf compared to an existing condo which is like maybe 500m or 1 km away. How does that even make sense?

People like new stuff. But they forget that what they buy "new", a few years later, will be come same as everything else. Because of the bullishness on the property market, "New" is being sold at a premium. Don't be taken in.

When I bought my condo in Bishan. It was at 700 plus psf. At that time, the resale condos in Bishan also all around the same psf. So, its fine. These days, new launches are nowhere priced near to nearby condos. They are all being priced high high. Beware.

i oredi pointed palette and PV going similar px compared to resale

open ur eyes big big and there are still reasonable new launches

u noe y parv vera like not much ppl noe? even agts also dunwan to sell bcoz i heard comm is only like 0.1x%.....sim lian so stingy....LOL

[Eldenfirefly]

Ok lah, I am sure there may be some hidden gems here and there.
I am saying in general mah.

[teddybear]

Yah loh, but then why need to introduce 10% ABSD if this is the case, they so stupid do unnecessary things?

You don't but doesn't mean others don't? Otherwise how to explain the super crowded Orchard Road full of shoppers and dinners?

Yeah, I agree. In general, everything looks expensive to me. So, I wouldn't buy now. But who knows, perhaps even after the correction, certain OCR regions will hold their value better than others due to this "paradigm shift" I am talking about.

Last time, Orchard road was the In place to be in. Even got this term called center point kids.

Nowadays, got Tampines, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Jurong, Serangoon Nex, etc etc, so I think the draw of Orchard road is no longer as compelling. Orchard road is still a place tourists love to go. But its not tourists that buy property here, its Singaporeans...

Be honest, how many of you actually shop at Orchard Road regularly?