Prices of Private Residential Properties Register Marginal Decline in 1st Qarter 2012

[bargain hunter]

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2012/pr12-33.html

2 April 2012

Prices of Private Residential Properties Register Marginal Decline in 1st Quarter 2012

URA's flash estimate of the private residential property price index for 1st Quarter 2012 indicates that overall private residential property prices have declined from the quarter before. This is the first price decline since 2nd Quarter 2009 and follows the trend of stabilising prices over the past 9 consecutive quarters.

The private residential property price index declined marginally from 206.2 points in 4th Quarter 2011 to 206.0 points in 1st Quarter 2012. This represents a decrease of 0.1%, compared to the 0.2% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A).

Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 0.9% in Core Central Region and 0.7% in Rest of Central Region in the quarter. Prices in Outside Central Region however increased by 1.2%, compared to the 0.6% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex B).

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold by developers. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 1st Quarter 2012 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.

[bargain hunter]

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p....5?OpenDocument

Date issued : 02 Apr 2012



HDB’s flash estimate of the 1st Quarter 2012 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 191.6, an increase of 0.6% over 4th Quarter 2011 (see Annexes A-1 (DOC 26KB) and A-2 (DOC 28KB)). This is lower than the 1.7% increase in the previous quarter and is the lowest RPI growth since 3rd Quarter 2006* .


2The RPI provides information on the general price movements in the public residential market. Transacted prices of individual flats (by block and flat type) can be found on HDB’s website and detailed online enquiries can be made at http://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/BB33RTIS/BB33PReslTrans.jsp


3The RPI for the full quarter and more detailed public housing data for 1st Quarter 2012 will be released on 27 April 2012.

[smallant]

ha... 1/2 filled or 1/2 empty .....

[blackjack21trader]

any price movement less than 5% is considered not significant in property.

[minority]

Its flat that's what its means.

[hyenergix]

This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.

[kane]

This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.

Can't always be running ahead of inflation. If not we will be at CM10 by now.

[Laguna]

This is below the inflation figure. Not a good sign.

Inflation is an annualised number whereas this is a quarterly number, to annualise, x4

[Ringo33]

any price movement less than 5% is considered not significant in property.

0.9% decline per quarter will give you around 4% per year.

[Laguna]

It does not feel like a price correction by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Apr 03, 2012

in Today
Colin Tan concluded

I may have more bad news for those waiting for a more meaningful price correction. The feedback I am getting from housing agents is that the resale market - yes, you heard it right - has picked up recently and that momentum is building up once again.

Not the kind of news some want to hear right now.

[darkseid]

It does not feel like a price correction by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Apr 03, 2012

in Today
Colin Tan concluded

I may have more bad news for those waiting for a more meaningful price correction. The feedback I am getting from housing agents is that the resale market - yes, you heard it right - has picked up recently and that momentum is building up once again.

Not the kind of news some want to hear right now.

Agreed. But should I buy now or wait and monitor?

[Wild Falcon]

I think the higher PSF is because of downsizing of units. Or else prices would have crashed in the index. I read in the paper few days ago, the average size of a new unit (country-wide) is only approx 650sqft, a reduction of 40% from a year ago. The average size of new OCR unit is larger at 750sqft. Assuming 70% in OCR, this means average size of CCR/RCR unit is less than 500sqft. So not surprising, CCR/RCR prices are dropping because they cannot go any smaller than that. I hv mentioned this before, the reason I believe 2 years ago why OCR has upside is because at that time the downsizing has not happened in the region. Now, downsizing has come to OCR as well, albeit average size of new OCR units still much larger than CCR/RCR. But at some point in time, the downsizing has to stop, that is when OCR will start suffering the same fate as CCR/RCR/

[radha08]

wohoo 1million property just became 990000.....wont mr B B dissapointed

[Leeds]

I think the higher PSF is because of downsizing of units. Or else prices would have crashed in the index. I read in the paper few days ago, the average size of a new unit (country-wide) is only approx 650sqft, a reduction of 40% from a year ago. The average size of new OCR unit is larger at 750sqft. Assuming 70% in OCR, this means average size of CCR/RCR unit is less than 500sqft. So not surprising, CCR/RCR prices are dropping because they cannot go any smaller than that. I hv mentioned this before, the reason I believe 2 years ago why OCR has upside is because at that time the downsizing has not happened in the region. Now, downsizing has come to OCR as well, albeit average size of new OCR units still much larger than CCR/RCR. But at some point in time, the downsizing has to stop, that is when OCR will start suffering the same fate as CCR/RCR/

URA has refused the calls to separate its index for MM units believing that MM units are not significant to influence its index. The latest index shows its weaknesses. The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.

[Wild Falcon]

But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.

URA has refused the calls to separate its index for MM units believing that MM units are not significant to influence its index. The latest index shows its weaknesses. The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.

[chiaberry]

Agreed. But should I buy now or wait and monitor?

It depends on your personal circumstances. If you need a roof over yr head, I think you should consider buying. The longer you wait, the more you will waste on rent (this is literally money down the drain and helps to pay your landlord housing loan). And the less years you will have to be able to pay your own housing loan.

If it's for investment, then it's not so clear-cut. You do it at your own risk. In the long term it will probably be OK if you choose a well-located unit (not mickey-mouse hor).

[plastic]

*S'pore among favourite cities of the super-rich* by Venus Hew 04:45 AM Mar 31, 2012 SINGAPORE - The Republic has been ranked the fifth most important city in the world - up two notches from its previous ranking - by high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), according to The Wealth Report 2012 by Citi Private Bank and property consultancy Knight Frank. London took top spot in the ranking, followed by New York, Hong Kong and Paris. The survey assesses the importance of key cities to HNWIs based on the state of world affairs, opportunities for wealth creation, economic risks and political stability. When asked for their views on leading cities in 10 years' time, the respondents kept Singapore, London and New York in their current spots. Beijing and Shanghai were viewed as the fastest-growing, reflecting the impact of the flourishing economies of the East. They were deemed to be the third and fourth most important cities in 10 years, knocking Paris and Hong Kong down the list. HNWIs are keen on investing in prime residential and commercial properties in these top global cities because they are viewed as "safe havens" for long-term investments or as second homes, Knight Frank said. "If you look at property investment, most of the HNWIs' attitudes have changed ... for the longer-term perspective and a longer holding period," said Mr Png Poh Soon, head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank. "Nobody wants to make a loss. So certainly people are concerned about the impact of the market," he added. Despite cooling measures, experts say luxury property prices here will remain resilient due to the continued interest among the global super-rich in Singapore properties. The survey was conducted on 4,000 individuals worth an average of US$100 million (S$126 million) each.

[fclim]

wohoo 1million property just became 990000.....wont mr B B dissapointed

I thot u will be disappointed too?

[amk]

But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.

I can't believe you are trying to find every single piece of data and spin it to assert your CCR/OCR theory.

The report u mentioned is for NEW SALE transactions of the last 3 months. In the last 3 months, how many CCR new sales were done ?? The nb of transaction is so little the index is irrelevant.

On the other hand, for the OCR segment, the number is very relevant, because Feb/Mar we see *record* nb of OCR new sales!

What this data meant is very simple: OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.

and you still think OCR are better buys ?

[darkseid]

It depends on your personal circumstances. If you need a roof over yr head, I think you should consider buying. The longer you wait, the more you will waste on rent (this is literally money down the drain and helps to pay your landlord housing loan). And the less years you will have to be able to pay your own housing loan.

If it's for investment, then it's not so clear-cut. You do it at your own risk. In the long term it will probably be OK if you choose a well-located unit (not mickey-mouse hor).

Thanks.
BTW, what are all these term OCC,OCR etc mean?

[Wild Falcon]

why are you and teddybear ever so sensitive?

have you read the papers about downsizing? Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-

(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft. Which means new sales in CCR is now very small units and slow to a trickle. Sometimes we have to dissect and interprete statistics right? Cannot just agree blindly with what the reporter says. And for goodness sake, nobody is bashing CCR. People are just analysing how and why CCR prices are going down. And even OCR wil follow suit once the unit size falls to "y".

I have no idea why you and teddybear and always jumping up and down over nothing. I'm indirectly telling the guy up there, don't buy if you buying for investments because size can't get any smaller already.

In fact, I like this forum because it has 3-4 years of past advice by different forummers. And on hindsight, you can tell who is more objective and predict better based on same set of stats.

I can't believe you are trying to find every single piece of data and spin it to assert your CCR/OCR theory.

The report u mentioned is for NEW SALE transactions of the last 3 months. In the last 3 months, how many CCR new sales were done ?? The nb of transaction is so little the index is irrelevant.

On the other hand, for the OCR segment, the number is very relevant, because Feb/Mar we see *record* nb of OCR new sales!

What this data meant is very simple: OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.

and you still think OCR are better buys ?

[lufu]

The high psf prices for small units are distorting URA's price index. If not for the small units in the mass market, prices would have fallen evenly in CCR, RCR and OCR.

and all the CASHBACK, furniture voucher, stamp duty rebate etc.. not reflected in caveat price. (Different developer does it differently)

[amk]

Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-

(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650).

look the report says "median" not "average". u formula is not applicable. (I assume u understand the meaning of median ok?)

it's not I (or teddybear) am sensitive. you are. maybe u didn't realize. look what you insist in this post:

But even if they split MM units, I think it will affect CCR/RCR more. Because most OCR 1+1 units are still in the region of 600+sqft which is still larger than MM.

on the contrary, my interpretation of this report is this:

OCR buyers are now buying into MMs (or quasi MMs) hoping as "investment pty". aka FEO's watertown. Out of almost 5000 new OCR sales, more than half are <700 sqft "investment pty" for rental. This is the best example of a *bubble*.

I dun think this is an unreasonable conclusion. For the last 3 months, practically nil CCR new sale transactions. This report can even be seen as describing the OCR new sales at 90% accuracy.

and yes this has nothing to do with CCR/OCR who outperforms who issue (which is a separate a debate. and please, ABSD changes everything)

[dtrax]

Search Results: 2072 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012

---------

Search Results: 939 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012

Based on URA, small homes of 70sqm max probably abt 50% of total new sales for OCR for q1 [Update to Mar 23]

[dtrax]

Comparison to same qr last yr:

Search Results: 2352 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2011 - MAR 2011

-------------------------
Search Results: 634 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC), Executive Condominium
Market Segment : Outside Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2011 - MAR 2011


from 27% last yr on Q1 to 50% this yr on Q1

[dtrax]

Search Results: 41 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC)
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012

------

Search Results: 18 record(s) retrieved
Property Type : Non-Landed - All (exclude EC)
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Sale Type : New Sale
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70
Contract Date : JAN 2012 - MAR 2012

[ysyap]

Thanks.
BTW, what are all these term OCC,OCR etc mean?

OCR - Outside Central Region; CCR - Core Central Region; RCR - Rest of Central Region. OCC - ???

[amk]

Search Results: 41 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Core Central Region

------
Search Results: 18 record(s) retrieved
Market Segment : Core Central Region
Floor/Land Area (sqm) : 0 - 70

Thanks dtrax ! see WF, CCR new sale figures are basically negligible

[darkseid]

OCR - Outside Central Region; CCR - Core Central Region; RCR - Rest of Central Region. OCC - ???

Thank you for the clarification.

[teddybear]

Very funny, I can't imagine somebody can talk so much about data and statistics and seemingly able to conclude something and end up the basic fundamental data used to begin with are all wrong!
I am jumping up and down not over nothing because you are propogating wrong information and yet you said as though you are an expert and your conclusion is definitely right! (but end up proven wrong)!

why are you and teddybear ever so sensitive?

have you read the papers about downsizing? Real stats:- the average size of new sales is now only 650sqft and OCR is 750sqft. This means if you know maths and assuming 70% of new sales is in OCR:-

(70% of 750) + (30% of y = 650). Assuming y is average size of CCR unit. Y is actually a very small number <500 sqft. Which means new sales in CCR is now very small units and slow to a trickle. Sometimes we have to dissect and interprete statistics right? Cannot just agree blindly with what the reporter says. And for goodness sake, nobody is bashing CCR. People are just analysing how and why CCR prices are going down. And even OCR wil follow suit once the unit size falls to "y".

I have no idea why you and teddybear and always jumping up and down over nothing. I'm indirectly telling the guy up there, don't buy if you buying for investments because size can't get any smaller already.

In fact, I like this forum because it has 3-4 years of past advice by different forummers. And on hindsight, you can tell who is more objective and predict better based on same set of stats.