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Thread: The most bullish of all bull runs?

  1. #1
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    Default The most bullish of all bull runs?

    The most bullish of all bull runs?


    by Colin Tan
    04:45 AM Apr 27, 2012

    Judging from the recent spate of positive market news, it appears that there is no better time to be involved in property than the present.

    A report on Wednesday highlighted the sharp rebound in resale transactions of completed private homes last month, confirming that the secondary market had indeed recovered to levels before the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) was imposed in December.

    That segment of the market had been in "deep freeze" since the introduction of the ABSD but thawed quite suddenly. Indeed, it has been a lot harder to make an appointment with your real estate agent in the past few weeks, than say, in the early part of the year.

    Excluding the caveats filed for executive condominiums and en bloc sales, there were 1,142 resale deals for private homes last month. This is more than twice the 565 caveats for February and more than three times January's volume of 314 transactions. Last month's number also exceeds December's volume of 776 and November's 981.

    Only a day earlier, it was reported that rentals for homes in the private market had risen yet again for February. Overall, the message was that, with the exception of small pockets of weak rents in some locations, the leasing market has been pretty resilient - even amid news of expatriates returning home in numbers.

    These expats are those who have not been successful in renewing their employment or work passes.

    But if you look at the data, there had never been so many renter households in Singapore before. For the whole of last year, there were 45,062 private leasing contracts lodged with the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore.

    Meanwhile, according to the Housing and Development Board's website, the number of subletting approvals for last year totalled 26,130. Ostensibly, these numbers are keeping rents for both private and public apartments fairly high, if not higher.

    The leasing market has been a puzzle: How do we square the returning expat numbers with the rising number of rental contracts? The answer must be that more locals are renting.

    Who are these locals? Many are beneficiaries of en bloc sales. And the tenders for collective sales - discounted by many to fall sharply this year - are coming thick and fast.

    I am amazed at the speed at which they are hitting the market, and some of these developments are not very old. Their impact on the market cannot be denied, especially their roles in the robust sales of new properties and in the high rents for both private homes and public flats.

    Then, there are the robust sales for new units at developers' launches - mostly shoebox units - starting from Watertown in February and sustaining the momentum right up to Sky Habitat and Katong Regency in recent weeks.

    The most common comment from property analysts this week is that they are not ruling out another round of cooling measures. I think by now, almost everybody knows this without any need for reminders. What matters more is the kind of measures that will be introduced.

    We have already seen off five rounds of cooling measures but we do not seem to have got much further from square one. If the measures do not address the issue of low borrowing costs directly, I would not rule out just another round but a few more.

    Finally, the widespread optimism has even begun to permeate the moribund high-end market segment.

    Projects located in the prime central areas as well as those on the fringe are being re-launched with discounts, rental guarantees, luxury fittings and designer interior decor. And if the promotion packages catches on, who knows, the buying fervour may just spread to the rest of the high-end market.

    The thing with market launches is that they help provide more recent sale benchmarks against which buyers and sellers in the secondary or resale market can rely on to conclude their transactions. Without such a benchmark, there is usually a stand-off between my offer and yours.

    As it is, some agents are already spreading the word that the suburban market is over-bought and over-supplied and that it may be time to re-enter the prime segment.The prices on a per square foot basis has certainly narrowed between prime and fringe versus suburban.

    Yes, it does seem a lot more convincing this time around. Is this finally the year of the high-end market?



    Colin Tan is head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

  2. #2
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    really snake head if you read his past articles
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  3. #3
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    ikan bilis is offline i'm Buaya ! Girls BEWARE !!...
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    writer looked like this emoticon on TV... =>

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    I don't feel at ease when a bear turns bullish. Something ain't feeling right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    really snake head if you read his past articles
    ya, fully agreed

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    ANAL-yst u-turn = mkt peak liao.

    But maybe there is truth in it......

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    All those who listen to his cautious stance must be feeling pretty dismayed.

    Listen to the forum members here better.

    And look at the last sentence. A fence sitting rhetorical question to end such a lengthy article.

    Once again, I derive no value from his articles.

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    i used to like his articles........USED TO

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    i like to read articles from people who will stick their neck out and make a firm stand. even if they may be wrong. guys like marc faber and nouriel roubini have my respect, even though I don't agree with their views at times.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    i like to read articles from people who will stick their neck out and make a firm stand. even if they may be wrong. guys like marc faber and nouriel roubini have my respect, even though I don't agree with their views at times.
    marc faber always talk 5%....let you guess the 95%

    still prefer jim rojak

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    Quote Originally Posted by House
    marc faber always talk 5%....let you guess the 95%

    still prefer jim rojak
    he always bearish mah, for the bear audience, they here more maybe. heh.

    jim is always talking about commodities. i like nouriel, paul krugman...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    he always bearish mah, for the bear audience, they here more maybe. heh.

    jim is always talking about commodities. i like nouriel, paul krugman...

    Krugman sometimes too cheem for me.
    Who this nouriel ? Can share share URL?

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    don't you guys think the property price is too expensive now??

    pretty insane for anyone to purchase it unless you take a very long-term loan to service it la... which is not my style ..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    don't you guys think the property price is too expensive now??

    pretty insane for anyone to purchase it unless you take a very long-term loan to service it la... which is not my style ..
    Not when you are buying a HOME...no price is consider exp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    don't you guys think the property price is too expensive now??

    pretty insane for anyone to purchase it unless you take a very long-term loan to service it la... which is not my style ..
    Look at the way inflation is running. You have to weigh it up.....if you don't buy now......do you think your salary will go up in line with the house price increases? What if it doesn't.....as the years pass, the home that you can afford will get smaller and smaller....just like your cash.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chiaberry
    Look at the way inflation is running. You have to weigh it up.....if you don't buy now......do you think your salary will go up in line with the house price increases? What if it doesn't.....as the years pass, the home that you can afford will get smaller and smaller....just like your cash.
    Please advise if I should go ahead with a household income of 7k+ with 2k+ rental income then?

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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    Please advise if I should go ahead with a household income of 7k+ with 2k+ rental income then?
    Based on the "norm" you should quickly go buy that st Regis

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    Quote Originally Posted by House
    Based on the "norm" you should quickly go buy that st Regis
    How much is the St Regis then?

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    Quote Originally Posted by House
    Krugman sometimes too cheem for me.
    Who this nouriel ? Can share share URL?
    Search for nouriel roubini. He's got quite a number of articles.

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    really snake head if you read his past articles
    ha ha ha... ...Ku swee yong and nicholas mah better...

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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    How much is the St Regis then?
    3 for $10

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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    Please advise if I should go ahead with a household income of 7k+ with 2k+ rental income then?

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    Quote Originally Posted by House
    3 for $10
    Lol cluster housing 99lh, summer garden nice fit for his big family
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    don't you guys think the property price is too expensive now??

    pretty insane for anyone to purchase it unless you take a very long-term loan to service it la... which is not my style ..
    so what should we do...

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    The attached will show indeed the bull is still holding strong if not getting stronger... (April figures not conclusive yet, taken from streetsine)

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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    How much is the St Regis then?
    I'm not sure about others.

    For you 9k is king & can buy anything under the sun.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    The attached will show indeed the bull is still holding strong if not getting stronger... (April figures not conclusive yet, taken from streetsine)
    but doesnt look good rite...

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    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    but doesnt look good rite...
    The current month bar always few weeks slow... So dont gauge by proportion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    The current month bar always few weeks slow... So dont gauge by proportion.
    oh ok...wait n c what happens...every month also waiting and seeing...

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    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    so what should we do...
    I stick to the east and Changi, jus in case have to go pitch tent by the beach.

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