How serious is Singapore property bubble?

[phantom_opera]

How serious is Singapore property bubble? At which stage are we in?

[yowetan]

How serious is Singapore property bubble? At which stage are we in?

It is so "Serious" that people like myself having great desires, and hopeful to get one at this time of the moment.

I am pledging myself to 90% bank loan with all liquidity in this house hunt.

[buttercarp]

Imagine a balloon flying up the sky.
If a bird pecks it, or if it hits on a power line, or lightning strike it, it will pop.

If it does not encounter any obstacle it will continue flying higher and higher.
But the atmospheric pressure gets lower as it flies higher, so it is like pumping more air into the balloon, and finally the pressure of the air inside the balloon exceeds the pressure of the air outside the balloon, it will burst.

[lajia]

where got bubble??

within the last few yrs our population increased more than half a million, did we built enough to house all of us? is there a high inventory now? and did we consider those newly wed setting up family?

I think the market will correct itself when the time comes, but when is it, i think when the hdb start showing high inventory then that's when the bubble might be forming.

It is more of a lifestyle changes that increase the demand of PC. and not to forget foreign investors. last time we scare die, where got guts to commit, nowadays, parent chip in, the young ones also very garung, so the demand will only go up. only when we see a few months of slow sales then i think that could be a signal for u-turn...
just my opinion.

[phantom_opera]

Where are we??

[insigina]

The ABSD has had the opposite effect. Instead of mitigating property prices, prices have climbed even higher. I attribute this in large part to developers turning this negative effect to their favor by reimbursing SD and other discounts and incentives. This has spurred those in the sidelines to jump in to take 'advantage" of these incentives. I think the market is in a bubble but it would not burst. If carefully managed, it may slowly deflate but not with a bang.

[espeyap]

Where are we??

I think we are at Mania Phase.....

[buttercarp]

I think we are at Mania Phase.....

LOL.... bipolar.
Very vulnerable and disinhibited.

[carbuncle]

Bubble or no bubble it does seem the property balloon here is immensely expandable to extreme sizes...

[phantom_opera]

“Kakuei Tanaka, who became Prime Minister in 1972, effected extremely aggressive public investment based on his belief (remodelling the Japanese archipelago) that it was necessary to resolve overpopulation and depopulation problems by constructing a nationwide shinkansen railway network, which led to an overheated economy.”

=> Japan has shinkansen ... we have the DTLs, CCL, ERL, Thomson Line, NSL ... equally aggresive!!!

in the Heisei boom, asset prices increased dramatically under long-lasting economic growth and stable inflation. Okina et al (2001) define the “bubble period” as the period from 1987 to 1990, from the viewpoint of the coexistence of three factors indicative of a bubble economy, that is, a marked increase in asset prices, an expansion in monetary aggregates and credit, and an overheating economy. The phenomena particular to this period were stable CPI inflation in parallel with the expansion of asset prices

=> Singapore M3 as a per cent of GDP has reached 135% this year, an all time high .. and we also have stable CPI inflation as we never include real estate prices into CPI

[dtrax]

[yjcai]

so many opportunist here. This poll simply tell me prices will inch up higher. Or purposely skewed the result haha

[House]

I once talked to a Japanese old man developer in his late 70s whose biz stretches from Japan > hawaii > Ca.

he told me - he saw Japan boom then gloom, he foresee Sg will be the same as Japan.

I dont agree but I do scare of the chinese idiom - refuse to listen to old, prepare to eat shit.

[kane]

entering mania phase perhaps?

[Ringo33]

I am not sure how to read this chart, but just by looking at the PPI, it certainly shows the price is on a down trend. And my guess is that the drop could be more pronounce in Q1 if we didnt have the shoebox apartments psf as support.

[Ringo33]

I once talked to a Japanese old man developer in his late 70s whose biz stretches from Japan > hawaii > Ca.

he told me - he saw Japan boom then gloom, he foresee Sg will be the same as Japan.

I dont agree but I do scare of the chinese idiom - refuse to listen to old, prepare to eat shit.

this time is different.

[dtrax]

I am not sure how to read this chart, but just by looking at the PPI, it certainly shows the price is on a down trend. And my guess is that the drop could be more pronounce in Q1 if we didnt have the shoebox apartments psf as support.

take it with a pinch of salt.. if only property price can be 100% determine by looking at charts

[House]

this time is different.

he told me that just last year 2011.....

he drank more soya sauce(dipping sushi) than i have drink tap water

[hyenergix]

The high sales of shoebox apartments that are small and low quantum and ECs that are larger but highly subsidized show that the buying power of the population is waning. However with liquidity, inflation and price floor set by HDB, people will still prefer to park their cash in properties. We are in mania state now.

BUBBLE BUBBLE BUUBLE

[howgozit]

The high sales of shoebox apartments that are small and low quantum and ECs that are larger but highly subsidized show that the buying power of the population is waning. However with liquidity, inflation and price floor set by HDB, people will still prefer to park their cash in properties. We are in mania state now.

BUBBLE BUBBLE BUUBLE

Yes... in mania phase..... between greed and delusion.

[phantom_opera]

If US / Europe economy is at the rock bottom now, we may still have many boom years to come ... Chinese property market is also in soft landing so no destabilizing macro factors now (unless there is sudden Iran/Korean war?)

In peace time, what really matter is whether we have enough wage growth every year to push more people to jump into the property mania ... and this bubble still lacking one crucial factor - extreme optimism

Obviously many are still sitting on sidelines. Some even sold their own roof and looking to buy back but panic when price/volume just took off this month to another new high led by SH, KG, Seahill etc

Once exiting stocks of old projects priced lower are cleared ... price will increase significantly. Watch out for next land bid for any sign of EXTRAME OPTIMISM by developers.

[phantom_opera]

With the recent announcement of huge increase in wages for bus drivers, maids, public servants ... wage inflation could further push up inflation expectation and feeding each other in a vicious cycle... just like US in the 1970's

HUAT AH !!!

[chiaberry]

HUAT?

Inflation will be the killer. Even if you make profits from your properties, when you want to spend it, everything will cost more........so is it really considered huat? Huat for who?

[Pinball]

US + europe go up stage being setup for next AFC.

thai last straw last time, this round who?

With the recent announcement of huge increase in wages for bus drivers, maids, public servants ... wage inflation could further push up inflation expectation and feeding each other in a vicious cycle... just like US in the 1970's

HUAT AH !!!

[kane]

HUAT?

Inflation will be the killer. Even if you make profits from your properties, when you want to spend it, everything will cost more........so is it really considered huat? Huat for who?

Don't sell your properties and up your rental. That one really huat plus it is inflation hedged.

[Laguna]

Watch out for next land bid for any sign of EXTRAME OPTIMISM by developers.

FEO used to be bidding record prices, but now, after the old man, under the second generation, look like there is a big change. Their bids always come in the mid range.

[phantom_opera]

FEO used to be bidding record prices, but now, after the old man, under the second generation, look like there is a big change. Their bids always come in the mid range.

Yeah, their bid may be mid range but their selling price still leading edge
From the earlier Centro Residences, Silversea, The Sound, Watertown, the Hillier, Seahill ... all setting records

It will be interesting to see how much they launch the project near Tanah Merah MRT ... 1300psf for 1br, 1500psf for SOHO 1br anyone

[land118]

Money getting smaller..., hard assets still a good hedge..

[howgozit]

Money getting smaller..., hard assets still a good hedge..

Agree.. and the vicious cycle goes on...

[avo7007]

High inflation, high asset prices, high business cost. All these are part of an economy reaching peak cycle and on the verge of transition to a down cycle. Up down, up down. Nothing wrong what.