in real estate: govt, develpr, owners, agents, contractr all make $$, so who lose $$?

[ikan bilis]

in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??


me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....

the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??


so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough...

[teddybear]

There are 3 groups who lose $$$:
1) Those who keep singing that property will crash >30% and wait wait wait until cannot wait have to buy at sky high price!
2) Those who board (or "bought") the "boats" (here is "house") late, so the earlier to board (or "bought") the boat ("house") and hold long long (don't sell) the better!
3) Those who rent!

Who supplied the billions of $$$ - Answer: Govts all over the world from paper money printing!

in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??


me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....

the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??


so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough...

[howgozit]

I think you can add banks to the list too

in real estate market: govt-gls, developers, owners, agents, builders, lawyers, renovators all make $$, like that who lose $$ ??


me fish-brain too small, i can only think of tenants lose $$... but some of them already suckz dry dry by landlord liow ended either every 10-min post bad news on websites, or camp at changi beach....

the tenants are also unable to supply those profits in billions x billions of $$ earned by govt, developers and owners... so who "supplied" those billions of $$ ??


so who lose $$ hur ??... billions of $$ came from where ??... i only know everyone (except tenants) make huge $$... can some old-birds here please help me with this questions, me fish-brain no powerful enough...

[phantom_opera]

Not zero sum game

[Leeds]

Not zero sum game

Agree! It is not a zero sum game since the values of properties go up and down.

The people who win are the people who know how to unlock the values of their assets at the appropriate time and reinvest at appropriate time.

At the end of the day, if the values of your assets increase during bad time, you are a real winner. However, if the value of your assets increase during good time and without unlocking their values, you are still not a winner yet.

[Allthepies]

All make money, but not at the same time

[Xan]

1.Those who make money are those who buy early and had cashed out with profits already.
2.Those who lose money are those who buy high now and ended with more loans.
3.Those who lose big time are those who own nothing now, keep shouting property crash > 30% and wait and wait until cannot wait then buy at even a higher price from those at no. 2
4. Then when property crash, those belongs to no. 3 are baring all the loses.

[Xan]

And also those who buy at any pt of time but can't hold due to job retrenchment or personal financial mismanagement ended up forcing to sell at a loss.
That's why we hv this threat "many CCR selling at a loss"
I'm not referring to just CCR, I guess OCR can also happen as long as those with weak holding power.

[Kelonguni]

If the govt can ensure that population and household incomes continue to grow, housing prices will continue to grow. The "losers" are the young working generation who are forced to work longer to service their houses way into previously defined retirement age.

In a sense, nobody loses financially according to the game plan of the Govt. Just work longer to service the debt, which raises productivity and prolongs life / minimises health costs.

Even housing loans as long as 50 years are allowed to enhance affordability.

Everybody "wins".

[phantom_opera]

everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes

or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:

Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent

[Kelonguni]

everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes

or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:

Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent

Well said. Refer below for more ideas:

http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/...ry_824528.html

[Laguna]

everybody wins if GDP continues to grow, everybody loses if depression strikes

or everybody gains initially but all die if like Spain:

Spain’s IBEX stock index fell 5.8 percent, its biggest one-day drop in two years, and the risk premium on government debt hit a euro-era high as its borrowing costs rose to 7.32 percent

Yes, IBEX dropped badly, Spain will not be able to live on this tpye of lending rate.
Look like ECB must print more....

[phantom_opera]

Yes, IBEX dropped badly, Spain will not be able to live on this tpye of lending rate.
Look like ECB must print more....

Actually all of us are fighting against Central Banks as they simply press a button, the value of money will shrink in proportion so that they can rescue Wall Street, England, PIIGS, China economy etc. Ultimately, there is no perfect protection against printing of money other than owning something that is limited in supply. That's why properties in London, Manhattan, Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong can hold up well despite threat of deflation and crash of stock markets. In Singapore context, that will be properties in prime location or within walking distance to strategic MRT lines or having seaview, lakeview, golf course view, are commanding a premium just like rare paintings, diamonds, wine etc ... the more money is printing in the world, the more such properties will skyrocket in prices

Don't talk about growing your purchasing power ... what we should be worried is how to preserve our purchasing power. I have very good salary increment over the last few years but I feel like my purchasing power is shrinking

The title of this thread is getting irrelevant when rampant money printing by Central Bank is so pervasive

[phantom_opera]

Don't be too excited about 1% capital appreciation per quarter for your gems, Your real enemy is the Central Banks:

[Leeds]

The economic of the world right now as it is is certainly not normal. Low interest rate with high inflation is not normal. This should be viewed as temporary inbalance and eventually things would get back to normality. The fact that the US and EC are using the same medicine to try to cure their economies will prolong this inbalance..

It is not wrong given the present situation to buy hard assets. The risk attached is that when things return to normality, you may find yourself caught.

In the medium term, inflation will not kill you but the wrong investment decision will. Therefore, it is important to spread your risk and do not put all your eggs in one basket.

For those who could not really afford to buy hard assets, why stretch yourself just to fight inflation. Things will eventually return to normality.

For those who can afford to buy hard assets, buy with peace of mind as long as you need not bother by price correction when things return to normality.

For those who have not buy anything yet, just relax and wait a little bit more. This is the advice from our Finance Minister. He could not be that wrong all we will all be dead ducks.

[teddybear]

The old adage of what he advocate is not what he do applies....
It is like last time they tell your children to study IT & Computer Science, then Bio-Chem.... But their children don't become engineers and bio-chemists/techs...

The economic of the world right now as it is is certainly not normal. Low interest rate with high inflation is not normal. This should be viewed as temporary inbalance and eventually things would get back to normality. The fact that the US and EC are using the same medicine to try to cure their economies will prolong this inbalance..

It is not wrong given the present situation to buy hard assets. The risk attached is that when things return to normality, you may find yourself caught.

In the medium term, inflation will not kill you but the wrong investment decision will. Therefore, it is important to spread your risk and do not put all your eggs in one basket.

For those who could not really afford to buy hard assets, why stretch yourself just to fight inflation. Things will eventually return to normality.

For those who can afford to buy hard assets, buy with peace of mind as long as you need not bother by price correction when things return to normality.

For those who have not buy anything yet, just relax and wait a little bit more. This is the advice from our Finance Minister. He could not be that wrong all we will all be dead ducks.

[Kelonguni]

The old adage of what he advocate is not what he do applies....
It is like last time they tell your children to study IT & Computer Science, then Bio-Chem.... But their children don't become engineers and bio-chemists/techs...

Clap clap - a deep thinker finally.

I will only accept their advice if they declare they are not vested in properties and will not be vested beyond their primary residence for as long as they hold office.

It's a cruel world. Sad but true.

[amk]

Leeds u really have this "arr Q" mind set .. (dun know what it is ? Ask any of your PRC friend)

1st of all if some one is a nobody (aka losers all the while), he will have nothing to be concerned about his wealth.

The situation described by phantom, and subsequently discussed, is for some one who already has some level of wealth. From middle class above. This group's purchasing power is decreasing by the day. And this group do have a real worry how to manage this situation.

The world is now fueled by endless credit. Back to normal ? What is "normal"? In normal way of spending, no country should have a current account deficit. Today, how many developed countries have current account surplus ?

I am no genius. We are just trying to deal with this as much as we can. So what do you have to offer for this group ? Doing nothing ?

[samuelk]

If we look at the "shouting" or warning , for the lack of a better word, there seems to be truth in it, except that it may npt be as bad as it is.

Looking at that same peice of information, and the fact that Britain is having a TECH rececession, is it time to go in?

Saw todays ST , there are 3 group all competing for the same peice of buyers.

One at Tenary Wharf, ther other two cant remember. All goving 5 - 6 % yield.

Agent seems rather honest by advising the downside as well on Capital gain tax if the property appreciate.

Are prices already moderated and is this a good time to invest in London, ?

Looking at the exchanges rate and the interest rate, seems quite ok.

Anyone here knows about the downside of getting a PC in Britain ?


2.

[Leeds]

The main problem with investors is that we need to keep invested. Because of the need to keep invested, we have to choose what to invest given the environment we live in now. As such, logic prevails and most of us now go and buy hard asests.

We buy now for fear of the future or we believe the future is what we believe to become. Could the current economic inbalance with high inflation and low interest rate continue to rule and become the new normal? This is the million dollar question and whoever get it right will be the real winner.

[Stingray]

I believe that the low interest rate will stay for a few years. Can those countries pay back if the interest rate rises? Only by having a low interest, those countries might be able to pay back IF their economic goes back to normal.

Printing money could not solve the problem as those countries do not have the solution on how to build up their economy. So printing money gives investors the impression that ECB or US are trying to solve the problems. But are they? They do not have the political will to solve the problem.

My worry is currency war. By printing, the value of the money will decline and it makes the country seems cheap to import their products which they can earn money from exporting. Having the Yuen to appreciate while US dollar devalue, this makes China's products seems more expensive to import while US's products more cheaper. In the end, everyone try to make the current lower that create Currency war.

I do have worry as the current financial problem is not easy to solve as many countries are involved. Singapore commit to IMF for a sum to loan to them. If the loan is not enough for those countries and if they still ask for more money, is Singapore continue to help? It seems like big and deep hole that no amount of money could fill up.

If big recession happens, value of the money will decline a lot while property price will also drop. So there is no way you can protect yourself against big recession. Maybe, gold might be a protection.

[Leeds]

The main problem with investors is that we need to keep invested. Because of the need to keep invested, we have to choose what to invest given the environment we live in now. As such, logic prevails and most of us now go and buy hard asests.

We buy now for fear of the future or we believe the future is what we believe to become. Could the current economic inbalance with high inflation and low interest rate continue to rule and become the new normal? This is the million dollar question and whoever get it right will be the real winner.

Allow me to attempt answering the million dollar question. The problem with the US started from the bottom with the people over leveraging and banks giving out loans easily. New money are not finding its way to the people but to financial institutions and finding their ways to Asia.

The problem with the EC started from the top where countries spend beyond their means. Governments and banks went bankrupt and new money are there to restore confidence. The money are not helping the EC in growing their economies but to patch up the holes of the banks and governments. People are not willing to take less resulting in a stalling economy.

All these new money are not going directly to the people to spend but to institutions which eventually find it way to Asia resulting in extremely low interest rate.

Could this be the new normal? It cannot be long because despite plenty of new money, recession is hitting US and Europe. China is feeling the cold with less exports to the West due to low demand. The likelhood is a global recession be it gradually or hard landing as some predicted.

Whatever the case, a global slowdown is a certainty. Asia being a nett exporter will be affected especially Singapore with its open economy. There is nothing I could see right now to tell me otherwise.

[kane]

The last one holding the baby when the music stops loses money.

[richwang]

our children and grand children will pay the price.

[teddybear]

Don't worry, they can start all over again with a new currency and a new regime just like Singapore after World War II...

our children and grand children will pay the price.

[howgozit]

I read and re-read your passage but can't find the answer.... wait a minute, what's the million dollar question again?

Allow me to attempt answering the million dollar question. The problem with the US started from the bottom with the people over leveraging and banks giving out loans easily. New money are not finding its way to the people but to financial institutions and finding their ways to Asia.

The problem with the EC started from the top where countries spend beyond their means. Governments and banks went bankrupt and new money are there to restore confidence. The money are not helping the EC in growing their economies but to patch up the holes of the banks and governments. People are not willing to take less resulting in a stalling economy.

All these new money are not going directly to the people to spend but to institutions which eventually find it way to Asia resulting in extremely low interest rate.

Could this be the new normal? It cannot be long because despite plenty of new money, recession is hitting US and Europe. China is feeling the cold with less exports to the West due to low demand. The likelhood is a global recession be it gradually or hard landing as some predicted.

Whatever the case, a global slowdown is a certainty. Asia being a nett exporter will be affected especially Singapore with its open economy. There is nothing I could see right now to tell me otherwise.

[Kelonguni]

I read and re-read your passage but can't find the answer.... wait a minute, what's the million dollar question again?

It seems that the question is whether the influx of hot money will sustain or continue to fuel the property boom.

I think its much more complex than just dollars and cents. There are steady and huge shifts in people's values. That enough will sustain a long term growth imo.

[Rysk]

our children and grand children will pay the price.

Don't want them to pay the price??
Then buy a few freehold and keep for them in the future.. since ppl keep thinking property price is UP UP UP in the long term, yet KPKB since 5-rm 100k KPKB till now almost 1 mil..

[CCR]

Actually the safest bet in this economic climate is to buy properties in top cities like Singapore. NY, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney...

No matter what happen, prime cities will still be prime cities...

properties in sub prime cities might fall....
they might even close down many suburban town in US due to lack of demand or $$$ but prime cities that generate economic value will always be there..

If prices goes down then so be it!!! stay in it, your children can also use them when they get married...

Lesser risk than buying other assets...

[Leeds]

Actually the safest bet in this economic climate is to buy properties in top cities like Singapore. NY, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney...

No matter what happen, prime cities will still be prime cities...

properties in sub prime cities might fall....
they might even close down many suburban town in US due to lack of demand or $$$ but prime cities that generate economic value will always be there..

If prices goes down then so be it!!! stay in it, your children can also use them when they get married...

Lesser risk than buying other assets...

Exactly! if investors really need to invest or part their money somewhere given the current economic environment, the logic prevails and Singapore is one of the best bet. However, like you rightly pointed out, if prices go down due to the balancing of the current inbalance economic environment, you just need to stay in it and maybe pass it on to your children.

However, if you are not so fortunate in not having sufficient spare cash or need to borrow a lot to finance this hard asset, you might want to think hard instead of trying to be one of these investors. They have not much to lose even if prices correct.