This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:

[Ringo33]

mr tan, you are full of shit.

[blackjack21trader]

aiyo..brothers and sisters arh... we are all here to share information and progress our knowledge in property investment la. So there is really no right or wrong.Every debate here is a hiddened treasure to me.

It really depends on how one accept the other's argument and the executive of your action after reading the information here.

I must say, both sides got very good quality stuffs la. From the way you guys put forth your logic, I know that you are not just some secretaries or novice lurking in this forum.

I respect both sides, whether they are from from brother Ringo or brother equaliser. In fact, I must admit since the first day I joined this forum, I have been learning many new things and sometimes very paiseh also when some brothers pointed out the flaw in my logics. But I always improved after every single debate.

You guys must understand the way I try to communicate my info to you cannot be too ex...ex....ex.....exposed like a naked...naked...naked.....finger la. So there is really no right or wrong in my threads, I am just sharing my information with you guys and want to learn from you too.

But I must take a stand, right? as in all good argument la, so:

I still maintain landed prices are at the peak now.

HEHEHHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEHHEHEHHEH

[equalizer]

Ringo33

[blackjack21trader]

I must say, both sides got very good quality stuffs la. From the way you guys put forth your logic, I know that you are not just some secretaries or novice lurking in this forum.

err.....on second thought, the sentence above will be ammended to read:

I must say, both sides got very good quality stuffs la. From the childish way you guys put forth your logic, I know that you must not be more than 18 years old la.

[equalizer]

aiyo..brothers and sisters arh... we are all here to share information and progress our knowledge in property investment la. So there is really no right or wrong.Every debate here is a hiddened treasure to me.

It really depends on how one accept the other's argument and the executive of your action after reading the information here.

I must say, both sides got very good quality stuffs la. From the way you guys put forth your logic, I know that you are not just some secretaries or novice lurking in this forum.

I respect both sides, whether they are from from brother Ringo or brother equaliser. In fact, I must admit since the first day I joined this forum, I have been learning many new things and sometimes very paiseh also when some brothers pointed out the flaw in my logics. But I always improved after every single debate.

You guys must understand the way I try to communicate my info to you cannot be too ex...ex....ex.....exposed like a naked...naked...naked.....finger la. So there is really no right or wrong in my threads, I am just sharing my information with you guys and want to learn from you too.

But I must take a stand, right? as in all good argument la, so:

I still maintain landed prices are at the peak now.

HEHEHHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEHHEHEHHEH

Haha.. I respect you bro BJ21 but respectfully disagree....

1. Compare supply of condos vs supply of landed coming on-stream

2. From the demand side, Govtis slowing down intake of FT and PRs and wants to increase new Citizens

4. Landed price may seem high but that is due to the way it is priced (on land area) rather than built-up...if you compare built-up which is the real livable space, most landed actually make more economic sense.

3. Old landed can always be renovated or A&A to like new or even torn down and reconstructed whereas not so easy for the facade and common areas of condos.

[hopeful]

This is a very dangerous way of justifying your investment. This is like saying a lambo in Singapore cost $1.5m and COE at $90k is cheap.

Ringo is merely saying comparing valuation based on size and demographics is a dangerous way. but his example of lambo and COE is a non-example.
if lambo cost $1.5m, then COE at $90k is cheap.
if china car cost $50k, the COE at $90k is expensive.

.....
If you compared the most expensive apartment in NY vs Singapore, I am believe Singapore will still belagging behind.

Based on factors what do you believe that Singapore will still be lagging behind? You have not given your reasons yet for your belief.

to proper-t:
according to ringo, comparing valuation based on size and demographics is dangerous.
however, he hasn't state his reasoning why singapore's most expensive apt will still be lagging behind NY's most expensive apt.

so i dont see how you can make the leap:
"Hmmmm...so in your opinion, comparing NY CBD apt prices to SG CBD apt prices is NOT only a valid but very safe way of justifying your investment in SG CBD apts?".

now if ringo has used the same factors, size and demographics to explain why Singapore most expensive apt is undervalued as compared to NY most expensive apt, then it would be reasonable to crucify him why these same factors cannot be used to compare HK and Singapore landed.

perhaps there are some earlier posts by ringo that i missed?

[blackjack21trader]

wahhh brother equaliser, I like ur beautiful england sentence construction la. very elegant hor ...heheheheh

also note I never say landed will crash, I stated very clearly if left unattended at the present state of affairs, a terrace could very well beyond the reach of even the upper middle class here. This is very unhealthy as I already explained in the start of the thread.


also beg to differ on several of your points , pls see:

Haha.. I respect you bro BJ21 but respectfully disagree....

1. Compare supply of condos vs supply of landed coming on-stream

Indeed landed supply is limited. BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE into consideration the QUALITY of these landed also. Quality as whether is it worth your money as the NEXT buyers who buy from you may be more discerning than you especially so if it is a bear market. In a bull market, your landed facing a bin center also people say it is gold la.


2. From the demand side, Govtis slowing down intake of FT and PRs and wants to increase new Citizens

You forgot something I stated in my thread. That the NEWLY CONVERTED Singaporean also can buy landed hor. You are going to compete against them. That is why I ask brothers and sisters here, at this rate of landed appreciation, is it substainable not ?



4. Landed price may seem high but that is due to the way it is priced (on land area) rather than built-up...if you compare built-up which is the real livable space, most landed actually make more economic sense.


It is not about psf. It is about quantum and bank valuation and eventually affordability. Note that you are at the mercy of bank valuation in a bear market.



3. Old landed can always be renovated or A&A to like new or even torn down and reconstructed whereas not so easy for the facade and common areas of condos.

Agree totally. But old landed also can be stuck for many merry years. That is why I warned about the new terrace house of 1000sqft land selling over S$3Million. Do you see the sabo-bomb coming towards the old landed if this trend continues on?

Good Luck.

神龙股侠。

[lajia]

are you selling your bungulow now? peak le...dont sell now wait for when? your bungulow should be able to convert into a few units in CCR.

aiyo..brothers and sisters arh... we are all here to share information and progress our knowledge in property investment la. So there is really no right or wrong.Every debate here is a hiddened treasure to me.

It really depends on how one accept the other's argument and the executive of your action after reading the information here.

I must say, both sides got very good quality stuffs la. From the way you guys put forth your logic, I know that you are not just some secretaries or novice lurking in this forum.

I respect both sides, whether they are from from brother Ringo or brother equaliser. In fact, I must admit since the first day I joined this forum, I have been learning many new things and sometimes very paiseh also when some brothers pointed out the flaw in my logics. But I always improved after every single debate.

You guys must understand the way I try to communicate my info to you cannot be too ex...ex....ex.....exposed like a naked...naked...naked.....finger la. So there is really no right or wrong in my threads, I am just sharing my information with you guys and want to learn from you too.

But I must take a stand, right? as in all good argument la, so:

I still maintain landed prices are at the peak now.

HEHEHHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEHHEHEHHEH

[blackjack21trader]

You see, you guys do not see my fear. What is this fear about and may I reiterate my post to remind you again:

The thing I AM NERVOUS ABOUT IS WHEN high property prices is NOT substainable. Substainable in the perspective of LOCALLY BORN SINGAPOREAN and with regards to their financial fairness.


It must be attainable to the local Singaporean WHOM had worked hard for their SGD and be able to buy a proper landed at the level of their next upgrade in the social life/class ladder.


IF HOWEVER, the landed prices are artifically inflated due to some person(s) who HAS no concept of the value of SGD ( IMAGINE USING PURE CASH TO BUY A PROPERTY ! ), then the landed price will reach a stage BEYOND the locally born Singaporean who are climbing this social ladder.SINCE there exist this disparity gap in Wealth level and perception of value of money between the PRC and local Singaporean.


IF local Singaporean cannot afford landed, then logically these landed will eventually ended up in the hands of "NEW" Singaporean if you know what I mean. The landed will hence be passed around among this group of people ONLY.Hence creating an unfairness in the economic system.

If say the landed quantum of a new terrace built up 3000sqft on 1000sqft land is selling at ever increasing price of more than S$3Million and this continues on for several years, what do you think will happen to your next generation in 10 years time? If say your next generation is a professional like a doctor, can they afford even a new terrace. And say, you ask them to buy old terrace of 30-40 years old and rebuild, what do you think the costs of construction will be 10 years later at the present rate of the going ?

Do you naively think your humble brother here will be able to unload his bungalow next time 10 years later? You see your humble brother will be faced with the dilemma of sell at market price no takers, OR to sell at my own price dunno will regret or not later.

See MY FEAR NOW?

[blackjack21trader]

are you selling your bungulow now? peak le...dont sell now wait for when? your bungulow should be able to convert into a few units in CCR.

you are not paying attention in class la. read my thread start again. WOHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH

[blackjack21trader]

btw, let me enlighten you guys hor.

A bungalow can take up to 7 years to market and finally unload.

The current lower tier prices of the landed like terraces is affecting the prices of this group of property and I believe it can take even longer to unload next time.

[blackjack21trader]

Another area you guys have overlook or are too young to know, is that :

because we have been in QE for so many years, the property valuation never did once revalue for 8 years already.

please note that the higher your LOAN QUANTUM, the MORE YOU ARE AT THE MERCY OF BANK REVALUATION OF PROPERTY.

It may or may not happen, but better be safe than sorry.

[Ringo33]

Another area you guys have overlook or are too young to know, is that :

because we have been in QE for so many years, the property valuation never did once revalue for 8 years already.

please note that the higher your LOAN QUANTUM, the MORE YOU ARE AT THE MERCY OF BANK REVALUATION OF PROPERTY.

It may or may not happen, but better be safe than sorry.

I think it is safe to say that majority of the landed buyer over the last 2 to 3 years are taking 80% loan to finance their purchase.

[equalizer]

also note I never say landed will crash, I stated very clearly if left unattended at the present state of affairs, a terrace could very well beyond the reach of even the upper middle class here.

So you are saying that landed will not crash but still got room to grow ?

This is very unhealthy as I already explained in the start of the thread.

It may be unhealthy but when market crash, which segment will be affected more, the one with a lot of supply or the ones with limited supply.

also beg to differ on several of your points , pls see:





Good Luck.

神龙股侠。

Nah lah, its not the from but the substance that counts. Thank you for yr compliment and also for sharing your wisdom although some people here say my posts cmi. Here are my points in green.


1. Compare supply of condos vs supply of landed coming on-stream

Indeed landed supply is limited. BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE into consideration the QUALITY of these landed also. Quality as whether is it worth your money as the NEXT buyers who buy from you may be more discerning than you especially so if it is a bear market. In a bull market, your landed facing a bin center also people say it is gold la.

But I am comparing agst condos. Likewise, condo also got gd quality and bad quality. We should get back to the point of this thread. We are not taking about a bear mkt scenario but whether QE3 will positively impact landed. With excess liquidity in the mkt, which segment you think got better prospects. One where there is a lot of supply coming on-stream or one where supply is limited (don't talk abt gd or bad qlty as it exists in every ppty segment)



2. From the demand side, Govtis slowing down intake of FT and PRs and wants to increase new Citizens

You forgot something I stated in my thread. That the NEWLY CONVERTED Singaporean also can buy landed hor. You are going to compete against them. That is why I ask brothers and sisters here, at this rate of landed appreciation, is it substainable not ?

the thread title is not whether landed pice is sustainable but whether QE3 will or will not increase landed price. Your post above already contradict leh. With more liquidity in the mkt and more new citizens, won't landed price be positively impacted by QE3? with less FT and less PRs, won't the sale/rental for condos be negatively impacted. Even if there is more liquidity in the mkt, these FT or PR won't be around here to spend since govt don't allow them in.




4. Landed price may seem high but that is due to the way it is priced (on land area) rather than built-up...if you compare built-up which is the real livable space, most landed actually make more economic sense.


It is not about psf. It is about quantum and bank valuation and eventually affordability. Note that you are at the mercy of bank valuation in a bear market.

CCR condo also v high quantum ah ! I spoke to many bank friends and they are in fact more willing to lend for landed than for condo/apt. I can tell you most landed owners also own apt or condo as investment ppty (sound familiar ah bro BJ21). They stay in landed & rent out apt. If crunch comes, which do they they will sell first to support their mthly payments. Maybe I should ask you directly, if (touchwood) a crisis comes, which will you sell first , yr nassim bungalow or yr condo apts?


3. Old landed can always be renovated or A&A to like new or even torn down and reconstructed whereas not so easy for the facade and common areas of condos.

Agree totally. But old landed also can be stuck for many merry years. That is why I warned about the new terrace house of 1000sqft land selling over S$3Million. Do you see the sabo-bomb coming towards the old landed if this trend continues on?

Why sabo? If you bought an old landed, the land value will always be there. Most people buy landed nowadays for land value and don't heck care abt the structure. It can be a lao pok hse with leaking roof and they don't care. In fact, they prefer these because easier to tear down and build. when developer runs out of land, they will be eyeing all these plots of land for the land value and not for the structure. For old condo, it becomes harder and harded to get good rental. Yah, you can also dream for enbloc but even you have said to be careful as some will never be enbloc. For landed, the land value wll always be ther.

[lajia]

+1

Nah lah, its not the from but the substance that counts. Thank you for yr compliment and also for sharing your wisdom although some people here say my posts cmi. Here are my points in green.


1. Compare supply of condos vs supply of landed coming on-stream

Indeed landed supply is limited. BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE into consideration the QUALITY of these landed also. Quality as whether is it worth your money as the NEXT buyers who buy from you may be more discerning than you especially so if it is a bear market. In a bull market, your landed facing a bin center also people say it is gold la.

But I am comparing agst condos. Likewise, condo also got gd quality and bad quality. We should get back to the point of this thread. We are not taking about a bear mkt scenario but whether QE3 will positively impact landed. With excess liquidity in the mkt, which segment you think got better prospects. One where there is a lot of supply coming on-stream or one where supply is limited (don't talk abt gd or bad qlty as it exists in every ppty segment)



2. From the demand side, Govtis slowing down intake of FT and PRs and wants to increase new Citizens

You forgot something I stated in my thread. That the NEWLY CONVERTED Singaporean also can buy landed hor. You are going to compete against them. That is why I ask brothers and sisters here, at this rate of landed appreciation, is it substainable not ?

the thread title is not whether landed pice is sustainable but whether QE3 will or will not increase landed price. Your post above already contradict leh. With more liquidity in the mkt and more new citizens, won't landed price be positively impacted by QE3? with less FT and less PRs, won't the sale/rental for condos be negatively impacted. Even if there is more liquidity in the mkt, these FT or PR won't be around here to spend since govt don't allow them in.




4. Landed price may seem high but that is due to the way it is priced (on land area) rather than built-up...if you compare built-up which is the real livable space, most landed actually make more economic sense.


It is not about psf. It is about quantum and bank valuation and eventually affordability. Note that you are at the mercy of bank valuation in a bear market.

CCR condo also v high quantum ah ! I spoke to many bank friends and they are in fact more willing to lend for landed than for condo/apt. I can tell you most landed owners also own apt or condo as investment ppty (sound familiar ah bro BJ21). They stay in landed & rent out apt. If crunch comes, which do they they will sell first to support their mthly payments. Maybe I should ask you directly, if (touchwood) a crisis comes, which will you sell first , yr nassim bungalow or yr condo apts?


3. Old landed can always be renovated or A&A to like new or even torn down and reconstructed whereas not so easy for the facade and common areas of condos.

Agree totally. But old landed also can be stuck for many merry years. That is why I warned about the new terrace house of 1000sqft land selling over S$3Million. Do you see the sabo-bomb coming towards the old landed if this trend continues on?

Why sabo? If you bought an old landed, the land value will always be there. Most people buy landed nowadays for land value and don't heck care abt the structure. It can be a lao pok hse with leaking roof and they don't care. In fact, they prefer these because easier to tear down and build. when developer runs out of land, they will be eyeing all these plots of land for the land value and not for the structure. For old condo, it becomes harder and harded to get good rental. Yah, you can also dream for enbloc but even you have said to be careful as some will never be enbloc. For landed, the land value wll always be ther.

[hopeful]

......

Why sabo? If you bought an old landed, the land value will always be there. Most people buy landed nowadays for land value and don't heck care abt the structure. It can be a lao pok hse with leaking roof and they don't care. In fact, they prefer these because easier to tear down and build. when developer runs out of land, they will be eyeing all these plots of land for the land value and not for the structure. For old condo, it becomes harder and harded to get good rental. Yah, you can also dream for enbloc but even you have said to be careful as some will never be enbloc. For landed, the land value wll always be ther.

i am unclear about certain points.
1)are you comparing LH condo to FH landed?
2)why do you need to mention "For old condo, it becomes harder and harded to get good rental."? is the rental situation different from old landed?

[equalizer]

are you comparing LH condo to FH landed?

No...FH condo vs FH landed. You buy an old freehold condo (no view) and a old FH landed. Which you think will have more prospects NOW assuming both in same area? Which one you think will be more positively affected by QE3?

Firstly, old condo probly hv to compete with all the new condo coming up for rental. Yes, FH condo mebbe got enbloc chance (if PR not maxed) but as it gets older...harder and harder to get good rental
. You can no longer increase built-up, cannot change yr facade, windows etc and MC have to spend a lot to do up common areas. developers also smarter nowadays - rely more on GLS than enbloc for their land supply because more strghtfwd and no need to deal with all the enbloc rules.

Old landed...v ltd new supply plus hardly any GLS for landed. You have flexibility to build up to max PR/height. If not happy with design , can always change down the road. If no cash now, never mind. Just hold.Yrs down the road, the land value will still be there and may even increase as landed developers run out of land to develop.

For rental...old house you can easily renovate to new condition any time you want. For old condo, you can do up for interior but for exterior and common fac (unless you control the MC and MC got a lot of $$$), its is very difficult to improve. when potential tenant come and view, they will be put off by yr run dwn common areas. Its worst if there is a brand new condo next door.

For die-hard house renters, they actually don't have much choice esply if they want a certain area. There is very little competition since very few houses up for rent any way. Most are owner occupied.

[gfoo]

when it comes to valuing a purchase, here's what i take into account:
- location
- plot ratio as a fraction to surroundings
- price per plot ratio
- price per sq ft of unit
- facility cost to build psf excl built up apartments
- avg ratio of psf as a fractio to surrounding psf

this applies to landed, or apartments in manhattan or anywhere else

[gfoo]

ccr apartments in paris, london and manhattan are priced between $6000-8000psm in their local currency terms - e.g euro or usd. most good ones are prewar retrofits and don't have the luxury of space as in singapore's ccr condos. then again, neither is singapore as dynamic or cosmopolitan as those cities!

[equalizer]

the quality of your posts and contribution speaks for itself.
enuf said.

Since I have already contributed.. would luv to hear your quality views and comments?

Nah lah, its not the form but the substance that counts. Thank you for yr compliment and also for sharing your wisdom although some people here say my posts cmi. Here are my points in green.


1. Compare supply of condos vs supply of landed coming on-stream

Indeed landed supply is limited. BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE into consideration the QUALITY of these landed also. Quality as whether is it worth your money as the NEXT buyers who buy from you may be more discerning than you especially so if it is a bear market. In a bull market, your landed facing a bin center also people say it is gold la.

But I am comparing agst condos. Likewise, condo also got gd quality and bad quality. We should get back to the point of this thread. We are not taking about a bear mkt scenario but whether QE3 will positively impact landed. With excess liquidity in the mkt, which segment you think got better prospects. One where there is a lot of supply coming on-stream or one where supply is limited (don't talk abt gd or bad qlty as it exists in every ppty segment)



2. From the demand side, Govtis slowing down intake of FT and PRs and wants to increase new Citizens

You forgot something I stated in my thread. That the NEWLY CONVERTED Singaporean also can buy landed hor. You are going to compete against them. That is why I ask brothers and sisters here, at this rate of landed appreciation, is it substainable not ?

the thread title is not whether landed pice is sustainable but whether QE3 will or will not increase landed price. Your post above already contradict leh. With more liquidity in the mkt and more new citizens, won't landed price be positively impacted by QE3? with less FT and less PRs, won't the sale/rental for condos be negatively impacted. Even if there is more liquidity in the mkt, these FT or PR won't be around here to spend since govt don't allow them in.




4. Landed price may seem high but that is due to the way it is priced (on land area) rather than built-up...if you compare built-up which is the real livable space, most landed actually make more economic sense.


It is not about psf. It is about quantum and bank valuation and eventually affordability. Note that you are at the mercy of bank valuation in a bear market.

CCR condo also v high quantum ah ! I spoke to many bank friends and they are in fact more willing to lend for landed than for condo/apt. I can tell you most landed owners also own apt or condo as investment ppty (sound familiar ah bro BJ21). They stay in landed & rent out apt. If crunch comes, which do they they will sell first to support their mthly payments. Maybe I should ask you directly, if (touchwood) a crisis comes, which will you sell first , yr nassim bungalow or yr condo apts?


3. Old landed can always be renovated or A&A to like new or even torn down and reconstructed whereas not so easy for the facade and common areas of condos.

Agree totally. But old landed also can be stuck for many merry years. That is why I warned about the new terrace house of 1000sqft land selling over S$3Million. Do you see the sabo-bomb coming towards the old landed if this trend continues on?

Why sabo? If you bought an old landed, the land value will always be there. Most people buy landed nowadays for land value and don't heck care abt the structure. It can be a lao pok hse with leaking roof and they don't care. In fact, they prefer these because easier to tear down and build. when developer runs out of land, they will be eyeing all these plots of land for the land value and not for the structure. For old condo, it becomes harder and harded to get good rental. Yah, you can also dream for enbloc but even you have said to be careful as some will never be enbloc. For landed, the land value wll always be ther.

[Ringo33]

Since I have already contributed.. would luv to hear your quality views and comments?

Let me tell you why your argument is flawed.

1) It is meaningless to compare the supply of condo vs landed without comparing their respective demand. Yes condo supply is more than landed, but so is demand for condo and vice versa for landed.

2) The influx of new citizens will have very limited impact on landed property because it is more unlikely that property investors are going to simply give up their citizenship just to buy landed property to generate <2% yield. Unless you have figures to show how many of the new citizens are actually buying into landed, or else, it is just pure speculating.

And even if they do go straight into landed property, most likely they will be in the class where they will buy upscale GCBs instead of run of the mill landed property.

3) I can understand what you bring up OLD landed instead of landed in general because it is only through buying old landed that can give yourself the positive feeling that you are making money. e.g buy a old landed from a retiree for $1.5m, spend 500k on A&A and sell it for $2.2m, you tell the world you make $700k. right?

4) I am not sure if you understand the quantum effect in property. Many time people like to justify that landed psf is so low as compared to condo psf, so landed is cheap. Do you hear any condo investors arguing that because MM psf is so high and their 3 to 4 bedder condo are undervalue.

Have you not realized that for landed property majority the floor space you pay for are hardly utilized and they are there for feel good effect. It is perfectly fine if you really own it, or if it is generating healthy rental yield, but you have to take out a 30 to 40 years mortgage to finance it and make a miserable <$2psf rental, then you will have to start questioning yourself if it really make economical sense.

[blackjack21trader]

Let me tell you why your argument is flawed.

1) It is meaningless to compare the supply of condo vs landed without comparing their respective demand. Yes condo supply is more than landed, but so is demand for condo and vice versa for landed.

2) The influx of new citizens will have very limited impact on landed property because it is more unlikely that property investors are going to simply give up their citizenship just to buy landed property to generate <2% yield. Unless you have figures to show how many of the new citizens are actually buying into landed, or else, it is just pure speculating.

And even if they do go straight into landed property, most likely they will be in the class where they will buy upscale GCBs instead of run of the mill landed property.

3) I can understand what you bring up OLD landed instead of landed in general because it is only through buying old landed that can give yourself the positive feeling that you are making money. e.g buy a old landed from a retiree for $1.5m, spend 500k on A&A and sell it for $2.2m, you tell the world you make $700k. right?

4) I am not sure if you understand the quantum effect in property. Many time people like to justify that landed psf is so low as compared to condo psf, so landed is cheap. Do you hear any condo investors arguing that because MM psf is so high and their 3 to 4 bedder condo are undervalue.

Have you not realized that for landed property majority the floor space you pay for are hardly utilized and they are there for feel good effect. It is perfectly fine if you really own it, or if it is generating healthy rental yield, but you have to take out a 30 to 40 years mortgage to finance it and make a miserable <$2psf rental, then you will have to start questioning yourself if it really make economical sense.

wow...well said, brother Ringo33 ! Esp the highlighted paragraph, that is something new and I did not see it that way before. Thanks for your enlightening !

[equalizer]

Let me tell you why your argument is flawed.

1) It is meaningless to compare the supply of condo vs landed without comparing their respective demand. Yes condo supply is more than landed, but so is demand for condo and vice versa for landed.

So pray tell where is the demand going to come from for condos. Go examine yr population stats. FT/PRs? Organic population growth? Govt has already mentioned that they will be moderating FT/PRs intake but wants to focus on increasing new citizens. What does this mean when translated to the current pool of buyers for condos vs the current pool of buyers for landed?

2) The influx of new citizens will have very limited impact on landed property because it is more unlikely that property investors are going to simply give up their citizenship just to buy landed property to generate <2% yield. Unless you have figures to show how many of the new citizens are actually buying into landed, or else, it is just pure speculating.

Ahem..aren't you forgetting about the govt tough stance to moderate in Emplt Passes and PRs. At least the pool of buyers available for landed is increasing whilst the pool of buyers for condos/apts is shrinking. Govt studies have shown that they need an additonal 25K to 35K new citizens each yr. If they aim for say the lowest target of 25K p.a. and assuming ONLY 10% of these buy a landed, it still amounts to 2500 purchases of landed PER YEAR. I do not know why u r so fixated on yr <2% yield. These new citizens are here to set up home. They are buying for stay NOT for rental whereas the converse is true for EP or PRs who are either in the mkt to rent or to purchase for investment.

And even if they do go straight into landed property, most likely they will be in the class where they will buy upscale GCBs instead of run of the mill landed property.

Fail to grasp yr logic here..if GCB prices go up (which constitute part of the landed segment) doesn't it mean that the landed segment index also goes up?

3) I can understand what you bring up OLD landed instead of landed in general because it is only through buying old landed that can give yourself the positive feeling that you are making money. e.g buy a old landed from a retiree for $1.5m, spend 500k on A&A and sell it for $2.2m, you tell the world you make $700k. right?

No I would sell it for $2.7m and make $700K. Too much MM units have made yr arithmetric mousey too. No, I am touching on the potential advantages of buying a landed as opposed to a condo. Since we all have to hold a property for 4yrs to avoid SSD. Assuming you buy a new landed vs new condo. In 4 yrs time when you have to sell, if yr house is looking a bit jaded, you can easily jazz it up COMPLETELY whereas if the common areas +facilities in yr condo are looking run down, you do not have such an option to do so unless you run the whole MC. When potential buyers come to view yr apt, they don't just look at yr unit, they view the facilities and common surroundings as well plus not forgetting the spanking new condo next door due to the massive supply.

4) I am not sure if you understand the quantum effect in property. Many time people like to justify that landed psf is so low as compared to condo psf, so landed is cheap. Do you hear any condo investors arguing that because MM psf is so high and their 3 to 4 bedder condo are undervalue.
I would agree with you if the quantum for condos were as low back in the gd ol days but this is here and now. HDB flats are going for abv 1M, gd MM units are also hovering ard there. To get a 3-4 bedrm of mebbe 1200sf, how much do you hv to pay nowadays? 2-3mil? If you compare the living space of 1200sf (which often includes large balconies, planterbox, baywindows and bomb shelter), doesn't it make sense to pay a bit more to get the lving space of a landed?

Have you not realized that for landed property majority the floor space you pay for are hardly utilized and they are there for feel good effect. It is perfectly fine if you really own it, or if it is generating healthy rental yield, but you have to take out a 30 to 40 years mortgage to finance it and make a miserable <$2psf rental, then you will have to start questioning yourself if it really make economical sense.

Oh yeah, huge balconies, planter boxes, baywindows are all very well utilized in condos too rite? Space for space and dollar for dollar, it does make sense to go for landed.

As i said b4, wats with the fixation on rental yield. Most landed buyers buy for owner occupation, the so-called landed address, and the space comfort. You ask BJ21 whether he stays at his nassim bungalow or his condos?

As I have also said before, many landed owners probly buy investment ppty such as condos too for the rental yield but LIVE in the landed. When the crunch comes, the roof they are living under will be the LAST asset they will sell. I posed the question to BJ21 but hv still not got any answer.

TQ for posting. I now know the "power" quality of yr answers

[Fisherman]

Agreed with BJ11. At the rate the landed segment is moving, it will come a stage when the situation is as the chinese saying goes ' Have Price but no Market'. Simply because the asking price of the landed property is too high and the demand has reduced to a level where there are few takers simply because not many Singaporean can afford and willing to meet the asking price. Not sure though whether this level has been reached at the current moment. But my guess is it shouldn't be too far off. I believe also that the future state of landed properties in Singapore is that the land size per unit will get ever smaller with increasing built up area - the trend of MM in landed! As further informatio, I gather from asking agents that 3 out of 4 new detached bungalow at Greenleaf with land size 4,300 to 4,600 sq ft had been sold. The price is ~$2,400 psf to $2,500 psf! Not sure whether this info is accurate though.

[hopeful]

1) It is meaningless to compare the supply of condo vs landed without comparing their respective demand. Yes condo supply is more than landed, but so is demand for condo and vice versa for landed.

So pray tell where is the demand going to come from for condos. Go examine yr population stats. FT/PRs? Organic population growth? Govt has already mentioned that they will be moderating FT/PRs intake but wants to focus on increasing new citizens. What does this mean when translated to the current pool of buyers for condos vs the current pool of buyers for landed?

2) The influx of new citizens will have very limited impact on landed property because it is more unlikely that property investors are going to simply give up their citizenship just to buy landed property to generate <2% yield. Unless you have figures to show how many of the new citizens are actually buying into landed, or else, it is just pure speculating.

Ahem..aren't you forgetting about the govt tough stance to moderate in Emplt Passes and PRs. At least the pool of buyers available for landed is increasing whilst the pool of buyers for condos/apts is shrinking. Govt studies have shown that they need an additonal 25K to 35K new citizens each yr. If they aim for say the lowest target of 25K p.a. and assuming ONLY 10% of these buy a landed, it still amounts to 2500 purchases of landed PER YEAR. I do not know why u r so fixated on yr <2% yield. These new citizens are here to set up home. They are buying for stay NOT for rental whereas the converse is true for EP or PRs who are either in the mkt to rent or to purchase for investment.



I would like to point out that condos buyers are not limited to FT/PRs/EPs.
foreigners not working, not residing also can buy condos.

[equalizer]

Agreed with BJ11. At the rate the landed segment is moving, it will come a stage when the situation is as the chinese saying goes ' Have Price but no Market'. Simply because the asking price of the landed property is too high and the demand has reduced to a level where there are few takers simply because not many Singaporean can afford and willing to meet the asking price. Not sure though whether this level has been reached at the current moment. But my guess is it shouldn't be too far off. I believe also that the future state of landed properties in Singapore is that the land size per unit will get ever smaller with increasing built up area - the trend of MM in landed! As further informatio, I gather from asking agents that 3 out of 4 new detached bungalow at Greenleaf with land size 4,300 to 4,600 sq ft had been sold. The price is ~$2,400 psf to $2,500 psf! Not sure whether this info is accurate though.

If you look at historical price charts (sori ah, chart a bit old but just to put the pt across), prices tend to move in tandem across all segments. You should ask yrself the question. If this 'hv price no mkt' effect is gonna happen for landed, don't you think it will also happen for other segments as well? Its the same kinda argument that BJ21 (no offence bro) is promoting by saying that QE will not have an impact on landed but will have an impact on condos...

[equalizer]

1) It is meaningless to compare the supply of condo vs landed without comparing their respective demand. Yes condo supply is more than landed, but so is demand for condo and vice versa for landed.

So pray tell where is the demand going to come from for condos. Go examine yr population stats. FT/PRs? Organic population growth? Govt has already mentioned that they will be moderating FT/PRs intake but wants to focus on increasing new citizens. What does this mean when translated to the current pool of buyers for condos vs the current pool of buyers for landed?

2) The influx of new citizens will have very limited impact on landed property because it is more unlikely that property investors are going to simply give up their citizenship just to buy landed property to generate <2% yield. Unless you have figures to show how many of the new citizens are actually buying into landed, or else, it is just pure speculating.

Ahem..aren't you forgetting about the govt tough stance to moderate in Emplt Passes and PRs. At least the pool of buyers available for landed is increasing whilst the pool of buyers for condos/apts is shrinking. Govt studies have shown that they need an additonal 25K to 35K new citizens each yr. If they aim for say the lowest target of 25K p.a. and assuming ONLY 10% of these buy a landed, it still amounts to 2500 purchases of landed PER YEAR. I do not know why u r so fixated on yr <2% yield. These new citizens are here to set up home. They are buying for stay NOT for rental whereas the converse is true for EP or PRs who are either in the mkt to rent or to purchase for investment.



I would like to point out that condos buyers are not limited to FT/PRs/EPs.
foreigners not working, not residing also can buy condos.

How many of Non residents actually buy ppty in SG ? Are the nos enough to make a difference to counter for all the FT/PRs/EPs which are going to be rejected by the govt?

[hopeful]

Its the same kinda argument that BJ21 (no offence bro) is promoting by saying that QE will not have an impact on landed but will have an impact on condos...

well perhaps BJ21 mean to say that, if hot money comes in, also cannot buy landed, whereas can buy condos.

Anybody heard of funds buying landed? like funds buying Cascadia, the Grange collection (the condo that is not prestigious enough).

[hopeful]

How many of Non residents actually buy ppty in SG ? Are the nos enough to make a difference to counter for all the FT/PRs/EPs which are going to be rejected by the govt?

No data. just want to point out thats all. the whole world can buy singapore condos. only singapore citizens can buy landed.

[equalizer]

well perhaps BJ21 mean to say that, if hot money comes in, also cannot buy landed, whereas can buy condos.

Anybody heard of funds buying landed? like funds buying Cascadia, the Grange collection (the condo that is not prestigious enough).

were the funds the main factor for the resilience in prices during the previous easing efforts? I don't think so. Most analysts are of the opinion that the push comes from localised demand and the growth in population. Unless you can show figures to show me that funds actually have a significant impact on property prices, I remain unconvinced.